Is Huawei Building Its Own DRAM Fab? (xda-developers.com) 24
From the site tech-news site XDA Developers:
The consumer tech economy needs more DRAM manufacturers, and it needs them more urgently than perhaps at any point in its history. Anyone keeping track of the pricing trends will know that memory prices have climbed into the stratosphere on the back of AI infrastructure's relentless demand, and every consumer device that depends on RAM has traveled from inflated to unaffordable, quarter after quarter, with almost no relief in sight. Which is exactly why a story out of Shenzhen is worth paying attention to, even in its current rumor phase. According to the details circulated by various semiconductor analysts on X, the Chinese government, DRAM maker SwaySure and Chinese tech giant Huawei have partnered to set up a 12-inch memory production plant. If the reports hold up, it could change memory economics for years to come, but not necessarily in the way you'd hope...
SwaySure itself is a known player. The company was registered in Shenzhen in March 2022, is reportedly backed by municipal government, and appears alongside Huawei on the US Commerce Department's Entity List, suggesting Washington has realized the connection between the two entities. Although, that's also where the story becomes a little less straightforward. None of these claims have been independently confirmed, and many of the technical details circulating online trace back to a single X account. Huawei has previously denied operating the wider network of state-backed fabs that analysts have reported. Even the widely quoted figure of 140,000 wafers per month isn't new, and public records indicate SwaySure's production line is already operational. What gives the report weight, then, is the fact that Huawei has spent years building this kind of domestic semiconductor ecosystem through partners that appear to operate independently.
The rationale that analysts on X keep revisiting has little to do with consumer memory. Huawei's Ascend AI accelerators require high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and US export controls have all but cut Chinese entities from procuring HBM from Samsung or SK Hynix... Owning the supply outright solves a problem that purchasing power can't, which is why the DRAM push is read as a bid to secure captive HBM for Huawei's own silicon rather than to flood the market with cheaply manufactured DDR5... The catch, however, is the fact that most of this new and rejuvenated capacity is expected to be absorbed by China's own domestic demand, rather than to relieve the global shortage... This development does not seem to be an isolated incident, given the state of DRAM economics. CXMT, China's largest manufacturer of DRAM, is already running close to 265,000 wafer starts per month as of now as per analyst estimates, and is projected to hit 350,000 by the end of the year, bringing it within the touching distance of Micron's estimated 385,000....
[T]he oligopoly seems to be facing the first credible challenge to its capacity discipline in decades, and it seems to be coming from a country building fabs much faster than the competition could hope to match. Now, whether it tangibly impacts the consumer market economics in the time to come may be a story in its own right in a few years, but for now, for what it's worth, it's a new direction, and much of it feeds optimism.
SwaySure itself is a known player. The company was registered in Shenzhen in March 2022, is reportedly backed by municipal government, and appears alongside Huawei on the US Commerce Department's Entity List, suggesting Washington has realized the connection between the two entities. Although, that's also where the story becomes a little less straightforward. None of these claims have been independently confirmed, and many of the technical details circulating online trace back to a single X account. Huawei has previously denied operating the wider network of state-backed fabs that analysts have reported. Even the widely quoted figure of 140,000 wafers per month isn't new, and public records indicate SwaySure's production line is already operational. What gives the report weight, then, is the fact that Huawei has spent years building this kind of domestic semiconductor ecosystem through partners that appear to operate independently.
The rationale that analysts on X keep revisiting has little to do with consumer memory. Huawei's Ascend AI accelerators require high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and US export controls have all but cut Chinese entities from procuring HBM from Samsung or SK Hynix... Owning the supply outright solves a problem that purchasing power can't, which is why the DRAM push is read as a bid to secure captive HBM for Huawei's own silicon rather than to flood the market with cheaply manufactured DDR5... The catch, however, is the fact that most of this new and rejuvenated capacity is expected to be absorbed by China's own domestic demand, rather than to relieve the global shortage... This development does not seem to be an isolated incident, given the state of DRAM economics. CXMT, China's largest manufacturer of DRAM, is already running close to 265,000 wafer starts per month as of now as per analyst estimates, and is projected to hit 350,000 by the end of the year, bringing it within the touching distance of Micron's estimated 385,000....
[T]he oligopoly seems to be facing the first credible challenge to its capacity discipline in decades, and it seems to be coming from a country building fabs much faster than the competition could hope to match. Now, whether it tangibly impacts the consumer market economics in the time to come may be a story in its own right in a few years, but for now, for what it's worth, it's a new direction, and much of it feeds optimism.
Not only did... (Score:1)
...it precipitate the decline of Mozilla, but also the destruction of the human race. Humanity is now running on borrowed time, we will never recover from this.
Re: (Score:1)
Even worse than 911, the Russia/Ukraine war, the Gaza war, the Iran war, all fade into insignificance against the removal of Brendan Eich.
Capacity discipline (Score:2)
>[T]he oligopoly seems to be facing the first credible challenge to its capacity discipline...
What an interesting way to describe that. A disciplined way, you might say.
Re: (Score:1)
What an interesting way to describe that.
Yeah, we normies just call it price fixing.
Re: (Score:3)
Looking the company up (valnet.com, the "tech news site" XDA developers is theirs), they are in Canada and the US. Given their use of language in the FA, I had thought they would be Chinese.
If SwaySure and Huawei really are looking to produce DRAM chips, this is an obvious move given US sanctions and something which should reduce the upwards pressure on prices. Expect China to export more DRAM in the medium/long term, and presumably prices will eventually drop.
Does Betteridge's count? (Score:3, Insightful)
The hard part is (Score:2)
So if your Huawei you need to price in the inevitable price cuts from your competition design
Re:The hard part is (Score:5, Informative)
Can't see that happening, the Chinese government know they need a domestic source of DRAM chips not subject to sanctions and I'd expect them to do whatever is necessary to protect that particular baby. The word "tariffs" springs to mind. It is not as though the Chinese domestic market is not big enough to sustain a fab.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Huawei alone is probably big enough to sustain several fabs.
Re: (Score:2)
Or they vertically integrate and don't pay themselves the obscene profit margins that DRAM manufacturers are pocketing with a huge smile on their faces.
Huawei produces enough consumer-facing devices they can probably use 100% of their own output, which is the point.
A 12-inch memory production plant (Score:5, Insightful)
Re: (Score:2)
Yes, it's for me. All for me! MINE!
not going to help (Score:1)
Re: (Score:3)
On an unrelated note, Micron is protesting Apple's exploration on using CXMT chips.
Re: (Score:2)
Don't price gouge, and don't have your customers looking at your competition?
Or, more generally: play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
Re: not going to help (Score:1)
One big lie (Score:2)
"We need X amount of high speed ram for servers," - AI
"No, we can't make that many." - all the RAM manufacturers.