Why Europe Keeps Being Pummeled by Heat Waves (nytimes.com) 42
Europe is facing its fifth round of dangerously high temperatures this summer, the New York Times reports. Now climate scientists wonder if global warming is doing more than raise temperatures...
The weather patterns that create heat domes aren't new, but today they arise on top of the warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions. That makes it more likely that heat waves reach record-shattering temperatures for long stretches. But other environmental changes — natural, human-influenced or both — might also be causing heat domes to become more frequent and longer lasting. And it's these changes that scientists around the globe are trying to puzzle out.
One change has to do with the Arctic. The differences in temperature between the hot Equator and the frigid far north help keep weather moving around the Northern Hemisphere. But with the top of the world now warming at several times the pace of the rest of the globe, those temperature gradients are narrowing. That might be causing the movements of weather systems to become more sluggish, producing more persistent heat waves. In Europe, reduced air pollution could be having a similar effect. Industrial emissions can contain particles called aerosols that reflect sunlight. Curbing aerosols has improved air quality, but it may also have altered the way air moves across the continent.
Scientists haven't come to firm conclusions about how these shifts might be affecting European summers, said Antje Weisheimer, a climate scientist at the University of Oxford. The complex, fine-scale interactions in the atmosphere that drive weather dynamics are tough to capture in computer simulations, Dr. Weisheimer said. "It's tricky," she said. "We're making small progress."
Dim Coumou, a professor of climate science at the Dutch university VU Amsterdam, sees artificial intelligence as one way forward. In a recent study, he and his colleagues used an A.I. algorithm to help a weather model better predict summer temperatures in Europe. They not only improved the model's forecasts; they also discovered why some of the model's predictions had been off: It misrepresented the way conditions in the western Pacific Ocean influenced atmospheric patterns that eventually made their way to Europe. With A.I., "we can also learn what the climate models are missing," Dr. Coumou said.
One change has to do with the Arctic. The differences in temperature between the hot Equator and the frigid far north help keep weather moving around the Northern Hemisphere. But with the top of the world now warming at several times the pace of the rest of the globe, those temperature gradients are narrowing. That might be causing the movements of weather systems to become more sluggish, producing more persistent heat waves. In Europe, reduced air pollution could be having a similar effect. Industrial emissions can contain particles called aerosols that reflect sunlight. Curbing aerosols has improved air quality, but it may also have altered the way air moves across the continent.
Scientists haven't come to firm conclusions about how these shifts might be affecting European summers, said Antje Weisheimer, a climate scientist at the University of Oxford. The complex, fine-scale interactions in the atmosphere that drive weather dynamics are tough to capture in computer simulations, Dr. Weisheimer said. "It's tricky," she said. "We're making small progress."
Dim Coumou, a professor of climate science at the Dutch university VU Amsterdam, sees artificial intelligence as one way forward. In a recent study, he and his colleagues used an A.I. algorithm to help a weather model better predict summer temperatures in Europe. They not only improved the model's forecasts; they also discovered why some of the model's predictions had been off: It misrepresented the way conditions in the western Pacific Ocean influenced atmospheric patterns that eventually made their way to Europe. With A.I., "we can also learn what the climate models are missing," Dr. Coumou said.
Yeah... (Score:5, Funny)
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
Literally there's about 3 or 400 people who are going to destroy the entire planet except for a small section of it that they will be allowed to live on protected by automatic killbots and periodic Mass cullings.
And your Boomer uncle is all in favor of it as long as he doesn't have to look at trans people or let them drink his beer.
Re: (Score:1)
Re: (Score:3)
Trying to burn the country to the ground so we can rebuild a better one?
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And your Boomer uncle is all in favor of it as long as he doesn't have to look at trans people or let them drink his beer.
I disowned my right-wing relatives. I don't have any such boomer uncles anymore.
Re:Yeah... (Score:4, Insightful)
It is rather easy to blame others for climate change. Yes, the rich do a disproportionate amount of damage. But they wouldn't be able to do that damage without many, many people buying their products. The rich don't create industrial pollution for the hell of it (at least most, maybe there are a few that just like to destroy). They are creating pollution on your behalf.
If you take an airplane without really needing to, if you buy a larger house or car than you need, if you eat more than you should... you're also contributing to global warming and the general degradation of the environment. It is a collective problem, not the fault of a few individuals. If all the rich suddenly distributed their money to the general fund, the problem would still exist. People want to maintain their lifestyle.
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It is rather easy to blame others for climate change. Yes, the rich do a disproportionate amount of damage. But they wouldn't be able to do that damage without many, many people buying their products.
It is rather easy to blame others for climate change. Yes, the poor consume products which do ecological damage. But they wouldn't be able to do that damage without rich people deciding it's what they will be allowed to buy.
If you take an airplane without really needing to, if you buy a larger house or car than you need, if you eat more than you should...
Come on now, leave some billionaire cock for the rest of us to suck.
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Look at the good side, people won't have to move south when they retire any more. It will be warm where they already live.
Interestingly enough, on average I run the heat pump in cooling mode about 22 days a year. So far this year I've used it 8 days.
The heat pump is in heating mode from continuously from mid-October to Mid-April. It will be a long time before that balances out up here at 47 degrees North.
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The parts of Europe we are talking about are far far far further north than 47 latitude. ..
Mainz is 52 latitude north.
Rome is 48 latitude north.
And then comes Hamburg, London, Copenhagen, Oslo, Stockholm, Helsinki, Edinburgh and so on
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Pssht! Don't say that out loud, or we need to love bomb y'all with Nostalgia Max [1]....
https://insidejob.fandom.com/w... [fandom.com]
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Europe? What about North America? (Score:3)
We've had heatwave after heatwave after heatwave, and we still have another month of summer. Where I live 5% of the state is on fire, the National Weather Service regularly predicts "Smoke" as the weather. The air quality index is actually advertised as -1, I have no idea what that means, but it can't be good. For weeks at a time the sunrises and sunsets are orange in color because of the smoke. This is not a European problem, it's an everywhere problem. Not only do we have to stop human carbon from going into the atmosphere, but we have to remove energy from the system. Reducing population won't do it. Reducing pollution won't do it. We need to take very drastic and expensive steps to reduce the amount of energy hitting the planet from the Sun. Solar panels won't cut it, wind power won't cut it, nuclear power won't cut it. We have to block it. And then try and restore our atmosphere.
It's true everything is collapsing everywhere (Score:1)
Collapsing before our eyes. It's like how we blame cell phones on everything wrong with kids and not the ludicrous amounts of pressure we're putting on them because we know the entire economy and job market is collapsing and there aren't going to be enough jobs available for the number of people capable of working them so we're all hoping our kid is going to get the edge and be allowed to have a home and a car and food and medicine.
As far as I can tell the entire economy is collapsing around you and you kno
Re:Europe? What about North America? (Score:4)
We caught a guy who was setting fires over here. In large part due to video surveillance.
More Flock cameras is the answer.
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How many structures did that mentally ill guy burn down before he finally got the psychological treatment he needed in the first place?
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Arsonist #2
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/... [yahoo.com]
Arsonist #1, the big fire
https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/10... [cnn.com]
There was also a fire caused by a car crash on a mountain road.
It's normally tinder dry this time of year in the Cascade's rain shadow so it doesn't take much to start a fire.
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...but we have to remove energy from the system. Reducing population won't do it.
Thanos enters the chat > Actually...
Currents (Score:2)
Thought I read in a similar article that the Atlantic currents are slowing as well, which normally moves air around, and so it's just sitting on Europe.
And that this is only going to get worse with that current in collapse?
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No, if that current collapse, Europe is going to freeze. That current cools down Northern America and warms up Europe. That's why you have snow storms and it's cold in Montreal in the winter while comparatively a lot warmer in Paris France and Paris is farther up North than Montreal.
Paris 48.8567 N
Montreal 45.50889 N,
variability of a stable system is persistent (Score:4, Interesting)
The people of Europe are learning what the farmers on Southern Ontario learned 30 years ago. Even if the average doesn't change the weather has significantly changed. Average temperature is a terrible measure for climate change. It might be easy to explain but it lags the real change by 30 years.
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IQ is bunk because it is influenced by education and practice. Therefore it is not a measure of raw intelligence potential.
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Now, how about a successful prediction? Something reasonably precise, non-trivial and impactful, please — falsifiable, yet not falsified in due time... If you choose to play, be sure, each citation includes two links: one to the prediction being made, and another — to it coming true within at least 20% of the predicted value (for the quantifiable ones). Crucially, the two links must be at least 5 years apart...
And I'll even help! You can find the predictions in the IPCC assessment reports, all of which are easily available on the web. Here's the very first one, 1990:
The scientific basis: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar1... [www.ipcc.ch]
The impact assessment: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar1... [www.ipcc.ch]
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Wow, some had been off? Ok, nice to see an acknowledgement of that.
Let me guess, you saw the word "model" and got triggered into thinking they were talking about scientists modelling climate change, despite those models having being insanely accurate on a global scale, instead of the localised weather models actually being discussed and which are wildly more complex and have improved continuously over the past 5 decades?
Do we need to explain to you that local weather != climate like a 5 yearold, AGAIN? Pay attention in school kid.