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Global Heating Will Hit At Least 1.8C, UN Warns, and There Are 'No Good Outcomes' (theguardian.com) 208

An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Guardian: Global heating will reach at least 1.8C under even the most optimistic future, well beyond the Paris agreement goal of 1.5C, according to a UN report that warns every fraction of temperature rise intensifies destructive extreme weather, glacier melt, ecosystem loss, and island and coastal city submersion. The report by the Nairobi-based UN Environment Program confirmed overshooting the 1.5C goal inscribed in the landmark Paris agreement of 2015 was now "unavoidable" and, despite some progress in addressing the human-caused climate crisis driven by burning fossil fuels, likely in the next few years. It said: "There are no good outcomes above 1.5C."

Heating of up to 3C above preindustrial levels could lead to glaciers losing more than a quarter of their mass by 2100, raising sea levels by up to 13cm. Global food production could decline by up to 14% by 2050 if there are not effective strategies to adapt. Human health, water supplies, nature, cities, infrastructure and economies could all be severely damaged. Some losses would be irreversible. Many communities may have to relocate or change their livelihoods. The report said the best hope for humanity to limit damage was to adopt an "overshoot, peak and decline" pathway that required immediate and sustained greenhouse gas emissions cuts combined with steps to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

It described the goal of net zero emissions -- increasingly politically contentious in some countries -- as "an essential milestone that cannot be skipped" and stressed carbon dioxide removal through steps such as establishing vast new forests must occur alongside, not as an alternative to, deep cuts in fossil pollution. Crucially, the authors of the report, titled Limiting Overshoot, said the average global temperature could be returned to 1.5C this century only if heating stayed below about 1.8C. They warned nature's capacity to store carbon was uncertain and would shrink the more the planet heats. [...] The report's authors cited earlier work that found limiting heating to about 1.8C required global emissions to be halved by 2035. They said existing national policies were projected to lead to at least 2.3C heating, but it would still be possible to limit stay below 2C if countries delivered on net zero emissions commitments by mid-century.

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Global Heating Will Hit At Least 1.8C, UN Warns, and There Are 'No Good Outcomes'

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  • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Wednesday September 02, 2026 @11:49PM (#66320498)
    If you're a billionaire or a trillionaire the outcomes are great. You can use the infighting over increasingly scarce water and resources to cement your control over society and you can live in the few remaining temperate zones with plenty of fresh water for yourself.

    I mean yeah everyone else is fucked but we're all going to be billionaires right? We're just temporarily inconvenienced... And I'm sure Elon Musk thinks of you and me as his buddies. We will be joining him on Mars
  • by zeiche ( 81782 ) on Wednesday September 02, 2026 @11:52PM (#66320504)

    unless nature flicks us off like the fleas that we are, i’m pretty sure the planet is gonna sprint past that finish line.

    humans avoid discomfort at all costs. and that, i fear, is what is driving climate change denialism. acknowledging that burning fossils heats our world would mean giving up the F150, air conditioning, flying, consumerism, AI data centers, filthy eating habits and so much more. it is easier for folks to delude themselves and agree with the dotards that make decisions to continue the course. why give up what life has to offer when you only live once? besides, you can always blame biden.

    • Why the fuck would you embrace pain that you can easily avoid? Jesus.

      • by sg_oneill ( 159032 ) on Thursday September 03, 2026 @12:28AM (#66320538)

        Why the fuck would you embrace pain that you can easily avoid? Jesus.

        Because we have to believe there will be a future. And currently our kids are not sure there will be. And I don't blame them. I felt the same way in the 1980s about nuclear brinkmanship. The difference, unfortunately was Reagan and Gorbachev got their shit together and hammered out a plan that everyone agreed was a good idea. I see no evidence of anything like that happening with climate change.

        The thing is, its not THAT painful to make the changes. We know we can sort the energy bit with a combination of solar, wind, and with a bit of planning nuclear. We can transition to electric vehicles. We can reduce our carbon to essential plastics, chemicals, and food production. Theres things we CAN do but aren't. It won't save us from that 1.8c, thats a bigger more complicated project. But not making shit worse, thats entirely doable.

        (Keeping in mind theres a 20-ish year lag on CO2. We're really currently doing 1990s carbon right now.)

        • by Powercntrl ( 458442 ) on Thursday September 03, 2026 @12:52AM (#66320560) Homepage

          I felt the same way in the 1980s about nuclear brinkmanship. The difference, unfortunately was Reagan and Gorbachev got their shit together and hammered out a plan that everyone agreed was a good idea.

          The other difference was that the consequences of a nuclear exchange were far more tangible. There was no question that even if you did survive the initial bombardments, life afterwards was absolutely going to suck. Radiation has so many awful ways it can kill you, too.

          Climate change, though? Depending on your age, it might not even be a problem you'll have to concern yourself with. Trump, for example, is most certainly going to excuse himself from this mortal coil before the shit ever gets close to hitting the fan.

          • It's not that they were more tangible it's that you couldn't buy your way out of them. When the nukes hit they were going to hit for everybody and they were going to fuck up everything. If you are pretty well off financially you can continue to ignore the effects of climate change pretty much forever. As things get worse you're going to have to be even more well off but everyone convinces themselves they're going to be rich someday.
        • Nuclear (Score:4, Insightful)

          by Viol8 ( 599362 ) on Thursday September 03, 2026 @05:36AM (#66320750) Homepage

          "and with a bit of planning nuclear"

          Unfortunately the 20th century "greens" (in reality left wing anti west agitators who deliberately conflated nuclear power with nuclear weapons) put paid to any sensible nuclear program in most of the west except France. And in germany they closed all their nuclear plants only a few years back and switched to burning lignite FFS. Yes, they have solar and wind but it hardly makes up for the loss of the nuclear base load.

          • Re: Nuclear (Score:3, Informative)

            by drinkypoo ( 153816 )

            Sensible nuclear program like France's which costs more than anyone else's and is unreliable?

            • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

              It's almost like if you deliberately sabotage something in every way possible while dishonestly subsidizing the alternative and externalizing every single one of its failures and flaws you can skew the results.

            • Re: Nuclear (Score:5, Informative)

              by Viol8 ( 599362 ) on Thursday September 03, 2026 @07:50AM (#66320892) Homepage

              Unreliable in the sense that its provided 60% of france's power since the 1960s? I'll take that.

              • by q_e_t ( 5104099 )
                Back then renewables weren't viable but now they are. So whilst there is likely to be a role for some nuclear in the future, it's not likely to be at a level that France has been using due to cost.
                • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

                  by Viol8 ( 599362 )

                  The sun doesn't shine at night and the wind doesn't always blow. Apart from that renewables are a perfect green solution.

                  • by q_e_t ( 5104099 )

                    The sun doesn't shine at night and the wind doesn't always blow.

                    Indeed, but demand isn't constant and tends to be higher during the day. Given that nuclear is expensive, then sizing provision to meet the highest peak isn't really cost-effective. If you want expensive power that's more predictable (maintenance notwithstanding) then fine, but in general people would not be happy with the cost. France's power looks cheap, but it's partly hidden in taxes. But if people make a democratic decision to adopt nuclear entirely (it requires government subsidy) based on full inform

                    • by Viol8 ( 599362 )

                      You ever stopped to wonder why so many data centres are building their own gas turbine generators? But hey, I'm sure they'll all be solar or wind powered one day! Jesus...

                    • by q_e_t ( 5104099 )
                      Because of the fear of grid interruptions. The UK has plenty of renewables but there have been zero outages because of them, but a storm can bring down powerlines.

                      But hey, I'm sure they'll all be solar or wind powered one day!

                      Most already use solar or wind power via... the grid. A few have local provision but more as a way of defraying costs by using existing roof space.

                    • It's because it's the cheapest option, obviously. I mean, obvious to smart people, not you

              • Unreliable in the sense of cracks forming, maintenance shutdowns and corrosion problems.

        • My kids aren't having kids because of this reason. And I support their decision.
          • My kids aren't having kids because of this reason. And I support their decision.

            Having children is always a risk. You should consider the factors and should feel free to make the choice that's right for what you want in life, and for the ability of the children to have a good life.

            That said, for nearly all of human history, 50%+ of babies died before the age of 15. Climate change is bad, but I don't think we will get to 50% childhood death rate any time soon.

            Instead, perhaps you and your children and your grandchildren could work to be part of the solution?

        • by hdyoung ( 5182939 ) on Thursday September 03, 2026 @08:47AM (#66320980)
          Everything you list as a solution - it’s all happening. Renewable energy adoption, EVs, electrification, etc. etc. But not fast enough to bend the warming curve.

          10 years ago, I could tell that we were blowing past the 1.5C mark without even slowing down. Whenever I said it, people would scoff or downmod. Here we are.

          We will survive and adapt. CO2 levels were this high during the miocene, and mammals did ok back then. Today, we have science and technology. In a century, the world will be REALLY warm, but we’ll also have enormous amounts of solar energy, some wind, walmart-sized grid-scale batteries, and every living space will have AC. Entire cities/regions will need to be abandoned, refurbished or rebuilt. Food production will move towards the poles and adapt in a hundred other ways.

          And, we’ll probably have to geoengineer the planet. Scientists and engineers need to be prepping for this, because we’re gonna need it. It won’t be optional. This is another thing that gets downmodded nearly every time I say it because someone screams “SNOWPIERCER”.
          • Everything you list as a solution - it’s all happening. Renewable energy adoption, EVs, electrification, etc. etc. But not fast enough to bend the warming curve.

            And even if they happened faster, it still wouldn't be enough. The focus on emissions reduction to the exclusion of everything else is going to kill a lot of people.

            The only way we're going to fix this is to get to net negative, and while emissions reduction can help it will never be enough. That being the case, we should be investing a lot into capture and sequestration research.

            And, we’ll probably have to geoengineer the planet. Scientists and engineers need to be prepping for this, because we’re gonna need it. It won’t be optional.

            Absolutely. We should admit that we're in for some more CO2 rise before we can make it fall, no matter what we do, and inves

        • We aren't going to stop flying, we aren't going to setup a factories in every country to reduce global shipping, we're not going to stop eating meat and we're not going to all magically transition to an EV that's backed by 100% clean energy.

          We could but that would cost rich folk money. So we won't.

          • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

            We aren't going to stop flying, we aren't going to setup a factories in every country to reduce global shipping, we're not going to stop eating meat and we're not going to all magically transition to an EV that's backed by 100% clean energy.

            We will if it gets hot enough. Almost no one flew a hundred years ago because they didn't have enough money. If there are food shortages, water wars and mass migrations from coastal cities and the tropics most people will again be too poor to fly, meat will be a luxury a

        • Because we have to believe there will be a future. And currently our kids are not sure there will be.

          Dude, I grew up under the threat of nuclear annihilation. Don't start preaching to me about the kids of today not believing there is a future. That tactic has been used all of my life.

    • by jacks smirking reven ( 909048 ) on Thursday September 03, 2026 @12:32AM (#66320540)

      acknowledging that burning fossils heats our world would mean giving up the F150, air conditioning, flying, consumerism, AI data centers, filthy eating habits and so much more

      It never did, this is just what the denial-ism crowd wants to sell it as. To accept this framing is to accept their argument, it's just a different kind of denialism... let's call it it the nihilism-denial-ism.

      Small changes years ago would have made all the difference. Changes today will have to be larger, yes but your scenario has never been the scientist's answer it's the pundit's answer.

    • The problem is, the government would have to spend money replacing all the polluting technology (Namely, power generation, and making all equipment, electric.) and that meant more taxes, plus people having to replace their own technology (Eg. ICE cars, gas stoves). The result would be massive debt and a massive shift in manufacturing and employee skill-sets. Thus, the priority became 'protecting' jobs, fuck the environment. Even when there was consensus that something needed to be done (Kyoto Protocol),
    • distrust of the government is what drives denialism. did you forget the covid vaccine scam already?
    • Maybe if the people making these demands were to lead by example instead of living lives of such unbelievable luxury and excess in their dozen beachfront homes people would be more likely to believe them. Especially if their demands actually made logical sense, like demanding that the 15 cargo ships that out-pollute every private automobile on the planet were dealt with rather than demanding people give up meat and air conditioning and go back to living worse than medieval peasants.

      Or if they didn't all see

  • At least that idea makes me sleep sound at night.

  • by ArchieBunker ( 132337 ) on Thursday September 03, 2026 @12:11AM (#66320520)

    Here's a handy graphical aid and citations for all the data points. https://www.explainxkcd.com/wi... [explainxkcd.com]

    Feel free to dispute with your own data.

    • It's hard to persuade people if you start off by insulting them.
  • Learn to swim. The best outcome would be gills.

  • by jkechel ( 1101181 ) on Thursday September 03, 2026 @12:53AM (#66320562)

    Companies that dispose of physical waste have to pay for its disposal. Companies that release fossil carbon as CO don't. Why isn't CDR treated the same way — as the obligation to clean up your own waste?

    Given the current state of the science, existing law should already cover this. The laws haven't changed. Nature has, and so has what we know about it.

    https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/... [europa.eu]

    • Except that's a small tip of the iceberg. The companies we would most gladly vilify as those who have done the most damage are precisely the ones who don't do the emissions themselves, but rather sell products to others who proceed to do the emitting.

    • Companies that release fossil carbon as CO don't.

      YOU are the one choosing to emit CO (and CO2) when you burn the fuel to drive your car. YOU are the one choosing to emit CO when you heat your house. What are YOU doing to address YOUR emissions?

      If YOU are not doing anything, then why should you expect anyone else to do so?

    • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

      It's called a carbon tax. Maybe you've heard of it? Maybe you've voted against it? Lots of people have.

  • We are doomed (Score:5, Informative)

    by KAdamM ( 2996395 ) on Thursday September 03, 2026 @01:27AM (#66320590)
    All the recent gain in renewables is now quickly eaten up by AI data centers. In 2025 those centers used almost 500 TWh (2025), for a comparison electricity production from coal in US is around 740 TWh (2025). Just by dropping those we could eliminate a huge chunk of CO2 emission.
    • All the recent gain in renewables is now quickly eaten up by AI data centers. In 2025 those centers used almost 500 TWh (2025), for a comparison electricity production from coal in US is around 740 TWh (2025). Just by dropping those we could eliminate a huge chunk of CO2 emission.

      Remember a couple years back when there were stories about how we couldn't produce enough electricity to move the population over to all electrified vehicles too quickly? But Data Centers that eat electricity far faster are absolute must haves, and there can be no slowing down or by gawd grumble grumble China!

      We've lived too long in the politics of fear, and now we have the FOMO people using that fear to guide us toward oblivion. Our legacy will be the leaving behind evidence of a species smart enough to ch

  • by BrightCandle ( 636365 ) on Thursday September 03, 2026 @02:08AM (#66320606)
    We blew past 1.5C with barely a noise from the press and governments and we will blow past 2C in the early 2030s. 1.8C is not going to be met, that is absurd at this point. We are increasing the amount of CO2 we release every year, we are accelerating the problem faster than ever before. 3C is going to happen well before 2050.
  • Trump said it's all fake?

  • will just vote for those who tell them it is all a big conspiracy and the right thing to do is drill, baby drill and buy even more large cars!

    The number of stupid people, especially in a large country, especially in a country with amoung the highest CO2 emissions per capita, is apparently just too high to allow any hope at all.

    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      I recently found an estimate that about 30% of humans everywhere are totally deranged, delusionals that are willing to do as much violence as needed to stick it to the "others" that are, in their view, the source of all problems. This seems to be about the amount of negative-value individuals that things can go either way. Somehow that does not strike me as an accident.

  • And how is ramping up enegy consumption with data centres helping that I wonder. Why even bother when someone will happily burn it all for a buck?
  • Nothing will change until lots of people die (not just from the effects of such, but also things like "the boomer generation fuck off"), and/or the billionaires get hit in the wallet.

    Same old story.

  • Then the rest of us at least gets a good laugh before we die as well.

  • "well beyond the Paris agreement goal of 1.5C"

    That didn't jibe with my recollection, so I just checked. The Paris agreement was for 2 degrees C. The IPOCC said it should be 1.5.

    The Guardian - We abandoned Journalism and don't care about facts.

    • "well beyond the Paris agreement goal of 1.5C"

      That didn't jibe with my recollection, so I just checked. The Paris agreement was for 2 degrees C. The IPOCC said it should be 1.5.

      The Guardian - We abandoned Journalism and don't care about facts.

      Link to Paris Agreement https://unfccc.int/resource/do... [unfccc.int] ctrl f 1,5

      Emphasizing with serious concern the urgent need to address the significant gap
      between the aggregate effect of Parties’ mitigation pledges in terms of global annual
      emissions of greenhouse gases by 2020 and aggregate emission pathways consistent with
      holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 C above pre-
      industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 C above pre-
      industrial levels,

  • Mother Nature was not a signatory to the Paris Agreement.

  • "No good outcomes" pffft. The UK is finally getting decent summers!

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