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Russian Satellite's Close Shadowing of Radar Imaging Satellite Is a Big Deal (twz.com) 64

Posted by BeauHD from the crowded-skies dept.
Longtime Slashdot reader schwit1 shares a report from TWZ: A Russian satellite, Kosmos 2612, may have passed within approximately 85 feet (26 meters) of a U.S.-registered satellite belonging to commercial imagery provider ICEYE. This would be an extraordinarily close and potentially dangerous pass-by for two objects in space traveling at thousands of miles per hour. For weeks beforehand, ICEYE-X36, which would be of special interest to Russia, had already found itself in increasingly close orbital alignment with its pursuer. The two satellites now look to be drifting further and further apart, but the episode has been a clear sign of what is to come as the potential for conflict in space only continues to grow.

Publicly available space tracking data from the satellitemap.space and orbitalradar.com websites show that Kosmos 2612 (also written sometimes Cosmos 2612 and abbreviated K2612) and ICEYE X36 had their especially close encounter at approximately 16:07 UTC today. Private space services company LeoLabs also told TWZ today that it could not "confirm or contradict what other data sources have stated publicly," but that it has "high-confidence that the objects came within approximately [emphasis in the original] 500 meters [1,640 feet] of each other." Kosmos 2612 had been making progressively closer passes by ICEYE X36 in recent days. "This is the most advanced and potentially dangerous uncooperative RPO we've observed," Adam Marsh, LeoLabs vice president for technical solutions, separately told Breaking Defense.

"It's important to note that 'red' on 'blue' engagements, such as this, are relatively uncommon in Low Earth Orbit (LEO)," LeoLabs' report points out. At the same time, "this was not a routine conjunction or 'fly by.' The sequence included a controlled approach, changes in relative position, close-proximity loitering, additional small maneuvers, and a controlled departure. The behavior is consistent with sophisticated rendezvous and proximity operations (RPO)."

"We can only speculate about the operation's goal, but it could have been anything from simply intimidation to outright destruction or sabotage of a U.S.-registered satellite," CSIS' Clayton Swope told TWZ. "Perhaps the operation is on hold. There are, however, several other satellites that shadowed ICEYE X36 back in May that could be brought in[to] action too."
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Russian Satellite's Close Shadowing of Radar Imaging Satellite Is a Big Deal More

Russian Satellite's Close Shadowing of Radar Imaging Satellite Is a Big Deal

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  • Arms race escalation (Score:4, Interesting)

    by phantomfive ( 622387 ) on Wednesday October 21, 2026 @02:09AM (#66385932) Journal
    The US is engaging in an arms race escalation, putting weapons in space. In particular, the US is trying to develop the ability to shoot down ICBMs in space, meaning Russia and China's nuclear arsenal is effectively useless (effectiveness of the defense shield is another matter, but it doesn't matter as long as the adversary believes it will be effective). Russia and China and North Korea are not happy about it [wikipedia.org].

    There are too many satellites in the constellation for Russia to shoot them all down one by one. If they feel threatened enough, Russia (or China, or even N Korea) may induce Kessler syndrome as a way to deny the capability to anyone, thus re-leveling the war field. North Korea is worried enough that they are trying to respond by building a submarine fleet.

    It may be worth noting here that N Korea could just end the Korean war [bbc.com] and then they wouldn't have to worry, just focus on building their economy, but if evil dictators were rational they wouldn't be evil dictators.

    • May? (Score:4, Informative)

      by Viol8 ( 599362 ) on Wednesday October 21, 2026 @03:01AM (#66385964) Homepage

      China had a practice run at this a few years back when it blew up a satellite with a surface launched missile and the Russians would try the same if they had any competence left in their military. As for NK - Kim is all puff and bluster. Without chinese support NK would just be another bankrupt banana republic dictatorship and any sign that little fat man is getting too big for his boots and Beijing will quickly slap him down. Right now he's a useful proxy stick to poke the USA and chinas neighbours with.

      • A Chinese spy satellite blew up a couple weeks ago. Just before that the Chinese sent pictures of US bases in the Mideast to Iran who threw some missiles at them. The day after the satellite blew up Hegseth mentioned that the U.S. has anti-satellite technology.

        Now these could all be unrelated events, or they might not be, take it as you will.

        • The USA has aircraft launched anti satellite missiles since 20 or even 30 years.

          You probably find a /. article about it here in the history.

          • The thing that worries me isn't "new" weapons, those are a perpetual problem of humanity.

            The thing that worries me is that now people/countries have an understandable incentive to intentionally induce Kessler syndrome.

      • China had a practice run at this a few years back when it blew up a satellite with a surface launched missile and the Russians would try the same if they had any competence left in their military.

        Yeah, and the US Navy shot a missile from a Destroyer at sea that took out a satellite immediately afterwards. They shot from land, the US shot from the sea, considerably more difficult.

    • 1) Russia famously and openly put weapons in space repeatedly
      2) Every space vehicle is a weapon

    • Re:Arms race escalation (Score:5, Insightful)

      by argStyopa ( 232550 ) on Wednesday October 21, 2026 @11:21AM (#66386424) Journal

      "The US is escalating"?
      That's a rather specious viewpoint, isn't it? Or did you intend to lie by omission?

      The Soviets/Russians have had space based weapons platforms in orbit since the 1960s
      The Chinese have had weapons aloft for at least 10y.
      Honestly, if the US *doesn't* have functional, effective orbital weapons already up there, they're fucking incompetent.

      • Golden Dome is an escalation.

        • The *exact* same idea with the *exact* same complaints from the Left, the UCS, all the progressive crybabies...can reasonably be seen as having ended the Soviet Union by ramming it financially into its own contradictions.
          Is that ACTUALLY what you guys at the Paul Robeson bookstore are all still salty about? That the guys you insisted all along were the "good guys" turned out not to be?

          Anyway, the idea that defense = escalation hasn't been a thing since MAD was largely abandoned in the 1990s. Welcome to th

    • meaning Russia and China's nuclear arsenal is effectively useless

      Russia's nuclear arsenal is already very close to being effectively useless. Not a chance they've been doing good stockpile stewardship while the entire rest of the armed forces (and its tyres) rots into the ground.

      • Point taken, but it only takes one good ICBM to ruin your day. Russia doesn't like Golden Dome, but China is the one on the warpath towards America (in both the Philippines and Taiwan).

  • Costly big deal (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Canberra1 ( 3475749 ) on Wednesday October 21, 2026 @02:12AM (#66385936)
    Satellites have limited thruster reserves. It would have been severely costly for the Russians to waste propellant just for photos. No doubt it was catching RF spectrum samples and link protocols so this is never necessary again.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by 0123456 ( 636235 )

      It was likely also a demonstration that they can destroy Western surveillance satellites any time they want to.

      But yes, if they know how communication works they may be able to jam it instead. I've seen alleged satellite radar images of Crimea which show large areas with no usable data, presumably from jamming.

  • It is completely not a problem (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Required Snark ( 1702878 ) on Wednesday October 21, 2026 @02:29AM (#66385944)
    Now that Trump and Putin are on the same side and call each other Comrade, not only will Russia have access to all the data and design specs, Trump will be building one these and just gift it to Putin. They'll co-own a new company that builds the next generation spy satellite, then they'll both steal all the funding for themselves. If they ever launch something it will be a cheap useless piece of crap that will orbit and do nothing.

    PROBLEM SOLVED!!

  • drones? (Score:4, Interesting)

    by OrangeTide ( 124937 ) on Wednesday October 21, 2026 @05:12AM (#66386020) Homepage Journal

    Could a satellite release a small drone during an RPO. Enough to attach and collect information or use as a beacon for a future targeting operation? Would it even be detectable if they did? Even a retroreflector would assist in guidance for a surface missile to hit a target in LEO at a later date. If so, is this a late stage test?

    • Maybe for data collection. If they can do these close flybys already, they don't need any further help in targeting.

  • Who else cringed by the statement "This would be an extraordinarily close and potentially dangerous pass-by for two objects in space traveling at thousands of miles per hour." ?

    It does not matter how fact they are traveling. All that matters is the relative speed. There are no speed bumps, trucks, or rain to worry about. Why am I even bothering? I guess these are the same people who think that the vacuum of space will freeze you, or cause you to explode.

    • I guess these are the same people who think that the vacuum of space will freeze you

      Ummm, you will become "frozen" solid if your body is unprotected in space. No, you will not instantly freeze... but given enough time, your body will radiate heat until it is the same temperature as space itself... which is basically slightly over 0 Kelvin.

      Or were you railing against the idea that a body will freeze as fast as if it were dropped into liquid nitrogen?

  • I found this video on changes in the front line: https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com] After 2023 you really have to stare hard to catch any changes in that line.

    • Russia is powered by Zhukov spinning in his grave.

      WWI came back.

    • Re: (Score:1, Troll)

      by 0123456 ( 636235 )

      NATO turned what was originally intended to be a mostly peaceful show of force like the temporary invasion of Georgia into a war of attrition.

      Remember WWI when the lines were pretty much static for years and then suddenly it was all over?

      That's what's happening here. Russia has most of Donbas plus a buffer zone in some other regions that directly border Russia. Ukraine is throwing men at the front lines for Russia to kill but is running out. Territory held is largely irrelevant compared to the number of men

      • In WW1 the aggressor lost.

      • Hence the desperate calls for 'ceasefire' on the Western side because they know Ukraine can't last much longer.

        i.e. Trump telling Ukraine to surrender.

      • "NATO turned what was originally intended to be a mostly peaceful show of force like the temporary invasion of Georgia into a war of attrition."

        That's a pretty wild assertion. Like did I totally mis-understand the movie Red Dawn ?!?

        As a thought experiment, let's say the supposition above was correct? After being rebuffed in Kyiv, rather than demonstrating Russia could & would walk into Ukraine any time and call it a day. Putin pursued a bloody, multi-year ground war, and calculated attacks against c

      • Ukraine is throwing men at the front lines for Russia to kill but is running out.

        Sorry, Mr. Russian Bot, but I am pretty sure you have that backwards. These days, Russia is losing 8 soldiers for one of Ukraine's.

        https://www.csis.org/analysis/... [csis.org]

        It's only Trump who is calling for the ceasefire.

      • Russia is using up its soldiers faster than Ukraine both by number and by percentage.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Alsee ( 515537 )

        I don't know if you're a russian bot or some deluded idiot, but it amuses me to do a breakdown of your post.

        NATO turned what was originally intended to be a mostly peaceful show of force like the temporary invasion of Georgia into a war of attrition.

        First of all the "peaceful show of force" "temporary" invasion of Georgia involved a few hundred dead in the first two days [wikipedia.org], and another 5000+ civilians killed [wikipedia.org] in the ethnic cleansing after that, all for a land-grab to seize control of territory covering half of

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