NASA's Swift Observatory Is Falling to Earth (wired.com) 21
joshuark shares a report from Wired: After 22 years in orbit and a failed rescue mission this summer, it is highly likely that the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory will crash into Earth sometime next week. It is not known where on the planet the spacecraft -- which is roughly as big as a large elevator -- will fall. Despite its size, experts say the risk to the public is relatively low. The observatory was designed to operate for a few years in low Earth orbit, but it far exceeded its expected lifespan, helping to make many important discoveries about the evolution of the cosmos, including the study of supernovas and the destruction of stars by black holes. However, in 2024, increased solar activity heated and expanded the upper layers of Earth's atmosphere, increasing the drag on the satellite and accelerating its descent. Without a propulsion system capable of correcting its orbit, its days were numbered. The U.S. Space Force now expects Swift to reenter Earth's atmosphere around November 6. Most of the spacecraft is expected to burn up, although some components could survive and reach the ground (but most likely the ocean).
"The most likely survivors are its six heavy reaction wheels, the spinning flywheels it used to aim itself, along with tougher telescope parts such as lenses and mirrors," Dean Sladen, a quality manager and aerospace engineer at Accu Components, told Space.com. "Only a handful of small, scorched fragments are expected to make it down -- nothing recognizable as a telescope."
"NASA's own orbital debris requirements state that the risk of human casualty from surviving debris shall not exceed one in 10,000, so it is highly likely this work has been completed but not published," Sladen said regarding the risk assessment. "Personally, I believe it should be published, as NASA has done with previous satellites. The risk is almost certainly very small, but it would give people a clear, factual picture rather than guesswork."
"The most likely survivors are its six heavy reaction wheels, the spinning flywheels it used to aim itself, along with tougher telescope parts such as lenses and mirrors," Dean Sladen, a quality manager and aerospace engineer at Accu Components, told Space.com. "Only a handful of small, scorched fragments are expected to make it down -- nothing recognizable as a telescope."
"NASA's own orbital debris requirements state that the risk of human casualty from surviving debris shall not exceed one in 10,000, so it is highly likely this work has been completed but not published," Sladen said regarding the risk assessment. "Personally, I believe it should be published, as NASA has done with previous satellites. The risk is almost certainly very small, but it would give people a clear, factual picture rather than guesswork."
Non-Fatal Toilet Injuries (Score:2)
Also have a 1 in 10,000 chance , according to my (A)ctual (I)diot
And... it's down (Score:5, Informative)
It has reentered. Not clear what location yet.
According to the Scientific American page, no eyewitness reports of the re-entry, indicating that it was probably in a very remote location (probably over ocean).
https://www.scientificamerican... [scientificamerican.com]
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Obama's tan suit changed the sunlight reflection profile so as to change its orbit.
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I'm sorry, but huh? The Dems haven't taken power yet, and won't for two months. It's ALL YOUR FAULT, personally, and I hope it crashes on you hovel.
roughly as big as a large elevator (Score:2)
as big as a space elevator?
Lottery (Score:5, Funny)
The odds of someone being hit by this are very small. Much much much less than 1%.
The odds of winning the lottery 1/300,000,000 (0.000000003%) are similarly small. Yet someone somewhere wins the lottery every few weeks.
So, you've gotta ask yourself. Do you feel Lucky? Well, do you, punk?
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I'm waiting for the day a fishing boat gets taken out or a larger ship damaged by falling debris in the "empty" ocean. And of course there are aircraft too.
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While I'll be sad when they deorbit the ISS, I hope Taco Bell again seizes the opportunity as they did with Mir [spaceref.com] and we all get the chance for a free taco if it hits their target.
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The odds of someone being hit by this are very small. Much much much less than 1%.
The odds of winning the lottery 1/300,000,000 (0.000000003%) are similarly small. Yet someone somewhere wins the lottery every few weeks.
So, you've gotta ask yourself. Do you feel Lucky? Well, do you, punk?
Actually, I do. Even if it is a Smith and Wesson. And I've had my six. ;-)
We've been lucky ever since the dinosaurs decided to leave us en masse. We're a spinning blue dot in space playing cosmic pinball. It's all relative.
In the bigger picture, we humans won't even amount to a shitstain on the black hole toilet bowl of the universe anyway..
https://youtu.be/uD4izuDMUQA?t... [youtu.be]
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Incoming toilet seat! [imdb.com]
I just know this thing is going to hit me (Score:2)
Well.. (Score:3)
Well, I know where I'm hoping it lands ;-)
Swift observatory coming down? (Score:5, Funny)
"Oh no!" Tom said, downfallen.
Well then... (Score:2)
... I suppose it's just not swift enough!
Terrible summary (Score:4, Informative)
The summary changed "later this week" to "next week", and in fact SWIFT reentered early this morning. The Google AI summary provides enough information, including the estimated probability of casualty. (Remember, "casualty" is any injury requiring prompt medical attention.)
High velocity scientists (Score:2)
I always intended to write a short paper on the detection of gamma-ray bursts by the observation of clusters of high-velocity scientists. It seemed like it would be a useful technique because every time I heard that Swift had detected a gamma-ray burst a bunch of excited scientists had just hurtled past my office.