Groupon Could Challenge Google's Record IPO 245
jbrodkin writes "Months after spurning Google's $6 billion takeover bid, Groupon may topple Google's IPO record with an initial public offering worth $25 billion. Google went public in 2004 with a $24.6 billion valuation and Groupon seems to be on the verge of an IPO worth even more, Dow Jones VentureSource says. Even if Groupon doesn't break Google's record, it seems likely to become only the fifth venture-backed company to achieve a $10 billion valuation at the time of its IPO."
Groupon (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Groupon (Score:5, Insightful)
Actually users SPEND money. When advertisers say that you "save" money by taking advantage of a deal, they are altering reality. Saving money is the opposite of buying.
Still, when used responsibly, it IS a win-win-win. I have used it to great effect.
-d
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Obligatory XKCD:
http://xkcd.com/870/ [xkcd.com]
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>>>When advertisers say that you "save" money by taking advantage of a deal, they are altering reality.
If you are buying something you need, like money, and the advertiser gives you 50% off, then you are indeed saving money. Unfortunately most people buy things they don't need (shoes, that "cute dress", games, and other crap). Which is why the average American household is $120,000 in debt.
Plus another ~$140,000 national debt on top of it. The US is arguably the poorest first-world country - un
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If you are buying something you need, like money, and the advertiser gives you 50% off, then you are indeed saving money.
That's true. I spend at least half my income on money. But I never buy it at a discount store, because the quality just isn't there.
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I don't know - you can go out to Kinko's and have them make some for you, and they'll generally do a pretty good job....
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Do you have a source for that 120k in debt stat? I can't believe that could be true unless they are counting a mortgage against you without giving you credit for the value of the house.
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Forbes article 6/24/2010, probably elsewhere, too: http://blogs.forbes.com/moneybuilder/2010/06/24/one-big-difference-between-chinese-and-american-households-debt/ [forbes.com]
It does include mortgage debt. Perhaps this will suit you better: U.S. household debt is 136% of income, in urban China it's 17%. Meanwhile, more urban Chinese own their own home (85% to 69%), and those who do are far more likely to do so outright (11% with mortgage vs. 70% in U.S.).
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Re:Groupon (Score:4, Insightful)
You initially have a 200k asset and a 160k liability.
Sure, but you don't count future liabilities against current assets.
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It's a shame that house won't be worth more at the end of that 30 years. If you are going to factor the time value of money into this equation, you have to do it for the debt AND the asset.
And there is also the fact that I can pay off/refinance that mortgage whenever I feel like, so you can't assume that the 160k mortgage will cost me 320k. It doesn't work that way. Otherwise, you could make up any number for credit card debt, since it can be paid off in just about any time frame that you can imagine.
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If I have a house that is salable for 200K, with 40k down, 160 mortgage, I can sell and walk away with 40K. To call that a 160K debt and freak out about how huge that is is ridiculous. Asset backed debts have to be discounted by the equity in any sane accounting system.
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A common good rule of thumb is to only pay attention to coupons, discounts, and sales for things you were already going to buy. The best use of coupons and sales is to look for them after you already have figured out what you are buying, as a way to lower the cost you were already committing to. If you see a coupon or sale and then think to yourself, "Hmmm, should I buy that? It's such a good deal!" then you're a sucker.
And that's what the companies want you to do, make an impulse buy from the lure of th
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You're not poor until the debt comes due. And depending on the creditor, you simply walk away. Boom, clean balance sheet, as long as your assets aren't securing the debt.
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Depends on your intentions. If you were going to buy it anyway at full price, then you are saving money - although obviously more in an opportunity cost sense than a savings account sense. If you wanted to buy it but weren't willing to pay the normal price, then you were just doing the free market thing. If you bought it simply because it was being sold at a discount, then I've got a piece of land in which you might be interested.
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Occasionally they will have deals for things you would have bought anyways, and you end up paying less than you might have. It's still spending, but its a net savings, at least. The problem is, in that case, the business gains nothing. They aren't getting any new exposure or a customer out of it -- they're just basically giving a regular a discount for no real reason. This happens a lot and may be one of the reason why a large number of business that have offered Groupons have low satisfaction ratings w
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True but if there are a number of providers for a single product. The seller who provides a discount through Groupon will win out over the competitors selling the same product.
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Saving money is the opposite of buying.
Um, no? Saving is the opposite of spending. If I was going to buy a product anyway any discount is money I get to keep. It only stops being savings when you buy something only because it's on sale.
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Still, when used responsibly, it IS a win-win-win.
If Groupon was only used responsibly their IPO would be worth - well, they probably wouldn't be worth an IPO.
I don't see them as a company who will change the internet (like Google or Facebook). I wish them luck, but I wonder why anyone would think they are a good long-term investment.
When someone offers you $6 billion dollars for your company you say 'yes!'
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According to the site, Groupon users have saved about $1.5 billion. With many offers being half price, Groupon's total turnover ever would also be about $1.5 billion. How is a company with a $1.5 billion all-time turnover worth $25 billion? Count me out.
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I concur. I don't get this at all. I thought groupon was nuts not to take Google's offer, but this -- this is madness. They have a larger user base for sure, but their current business model does not support this valuation.
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I thought groupon was nuts not to take Google's offer, but this -- this is madness. They have a larger user base for sure, but their current business model does not support this valuation.
It'll be interesting to see what investors get burned by this. Facebook at least can keep trying to figure out how to monetize all it's users. Groupon? Anyone can do what they do. Your company only has value if only you can do what you do (copyright, patent, exclusive rights granted by the FDA, etc) or there is a high barrier to entry.
Re: Count Me Out (Score:2)
My reaction to Groupon has been "It's like a coupon, only much harder to use!"
I don't know what fraction of the coupon value Groupon gets to keep. If it's 100%, $1.5B on $25B, that would be 6%, not a bad deal these days. But if they're only getting 10%, and spend half of it on advertising, that's 0.3% of a $25B valuation, or 1.25% of a $6B valuation, so that says that Google would have to be expecting significant growth to make their bid worthwhile, and the VCs must be hoping the IPO-buying public are re
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In 2007, Groupon had 0 revenue. In 2010, they had ~760 million in revenue.
I think you can see where that graph is going.
http://xkcd.com/605/ [xkcd.com]
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No, Groupon's turnover is the commission they make from the sale of each voucher, which I believe is about 30% or $450m.
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The point is one has an impact on valuation and the other does not and, it is very deceitful to imply that revenue does.
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I see them as targeting restaurants mainly and generally screwing those businesses over when they "advertise" for them.
Groupon exists to advertise for itself. Its userbase is loyal to Groupon, not the businesses advertised. When that userbase is exhausted (and it will be) it will become junk.
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Screwing them over? How?
The restaurant uses them to sell X $25 off a $50 meal coupon basically. If the restaurant is dumb enough to not have this work out as a profit for them, they are going out of business no matter what groupon does. The groupon user base is not loyal to groupon, if they had a competitor these folks would use them just as much. Welcome to a functioning market. Buyers are rationally attempting to get the best deal they can, and sellers trying to guarantee minimum set of sales.
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Because the restaurant will run into several things:
1. An overload of customers they cannot handle especially right before the coupon is set to expire from it's inflated value.
2. Coupons are generally used to build customer bases. Because the customers are loyal to Groupon, they aren't interested in the restaurant itself, just the deal they got from Groupon. Thus the advertisement does nothing but give them even less money to make and little to no repeat business.
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There isn't a business in this world that has ever (seriously) complained about having too many customers.
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There isn't a business in this world that has ever (seriously) complained about having too many customers.
Yes, there is. You want *profitable* customers. If you lose money on each customer, what are you going to do? Make it up on volume? (Insert "That's the joke" here)
Losing money and making it up in volume (Score:2)
If the customer shows up once, and buys a $50 dinner for $25, of which the restaurant gets $15 and Groupon gets $10, and never comes back, maybe they lose. (Their direct costs are the cost of materials, plus the marginal costs of labor for the cooks and waiters, and maybe they don't make any extra to contribute to rent or fixed costs, but as long as they don't alienate customers with bad service from overworked staff, they're not actually losing marginal cost.)
On the other hand, if half the customers who s
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When a local
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These restaurants already require minimum purchase amounts and exclude things like alcohol. If they can't make money with that nothing will help them. The restaurant needs factor those sorts of things in and the conversion rate as well. Groupon will indeed then offer poorer deals, its apparent value is absurdly high anyway.
in my experience (Score:3)
Perhaps with a new restaurant to get the word out it works, but every Groupon rest. we've been to in the last year failed.
I don't think that's Groupon's fault, however. I think a Groupon deal is a very good indicator if a restaurant is struggling.
$25 Billion for a Mailing List?? (Score:2)
Now matter how much the people on this mailing list spend, there is no way that it's worth $25 billion. It's just a spamish mailing list...
I guess the tech bubble is back. Good news for programmers, bad news for dumb investors.
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I don't think the bubble ever really went away; it just jumped to the next new, hot, sure thing. It'll only ever go away when people stop being stupid.
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So what you're saying is that it'll never go away?
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After all the financial disasters dating back to the Savings & Loan crises, junk bonds, Black Tuesday, etc, let's say that I'm not hopeful unless STRONG oversight and regulation is put in place.
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I'm just sad that I missed out on the Social Media bubble :-(
I just want a decent bit of cash like the web boomers! At this rate if I have a rusty '91 Supra for a midlife-crisis-mobile, I'll be lucky...
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I was actually working on a social media application similar to LinkedIn back when facebook wasn't even available in my college.
I got alot more experience than money out of that bubble.. I got to see paychecks bounce and a company crash and burn, in a pretty spectacular fashion.
It was sad to see, but most of the employees ended up landing on their feet.
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The bubble is back for sure. Programmer salaries jumped 20% this year, almost universally.
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Well, to be fair it's a bit more than a mailing list. It's a business that actually makes money, what's more it makes it in a straightforward way that doesn't require you to give much credence to any novel, non-negatable theories about the nature of "business value".
That said, the simplicity of the business is also its drawback. They're basically brokering information between buyers and sellers then taking a cut. Anybody with a little money could reproduce that business model in a couple of months ... maybe
ORLY? (Score:2)
Groupon has a great business idea ...
Really?
To support a $25 BILLion valuation you need to make something like $2.5 BILLioin profit annually.
If you can negotiate deep discounts on group purchases and have that much left over after the stuff is sold at deeply cut rates, it sends a message to the sellers AND other, existing, discount stores that they're WAY overpriced and can make more by going after fast nickles rather than slow dimes.
(Of course it DOES, like discount stores, give the manufacturers a handy w
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You could not be more wrong.
Users save money when they purchase something they would have bought at full price otherwise. Partners get a guaranteed amount of money and they get it now, not later. They also get the opportunity to show their product or service to what may be a new customer. That $100 gift certificate for $50 normally comes as 4 $25 certificate that you can only use one at a time on something costing at least $50. This means if the retailer has more than a 100% markup they can still be making
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1)the value of having new customers come in. Make the first experience positive and they might return, making that gc loss a long term gain.
2)the high number of gcs that never get redeemed.
Welcome to 1999 (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Welcome to 1999 (Score:5, Insightful)
I wouldn't write Groupon off as a bubble stock. They actually make money, which means they can be legitimately valued. The hysteria in 1999 was in companies that had no proven revenue stream whatsoever.
Re:Welcome to 1999 (Score:5, Interesting)
The pricing is bubble, though. They're getting valued at 20X gross. That's a factor of 5 off normal.
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Companies like Amazon, ARM Holdings, Microsoft and so on made money and could be legitimately valued. They are all very solid companies that are still around but none of them have got back to their 1999 valuations because those valuations were just way too high.
As far as I'm aware, the only tech company that is worth more now than back then is Apple, which was on its knees at the time, and has since recovered.
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So.... Facebook?
Wait (Score:2)
How is this company even worth $12 billion? Seriously, even first post at half off coupons aren't worth that.
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How is this company even worth $12 billion? Seriously, even first post at half off coupons aren't worth that.
It's not worth the money. We'll just have to wait for a Groupon link to the 'IPO Deal' where we can get 10 shares for the price of 4 if we buy them the day after tomorrow.
Trying to Blow Up a New Bubble (Score:5, Insightful)
Wall St. can't keep itself from trying to blow up investment bubbles.
There's a sucker born every minute (and then the taxpayers bail the investment banks out).
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Strikes me that either money has devalued much more than we thought or the next new bubble has arrived. There are huge numbers of transaction discounters on line looking for the advertising campaigns that they can suck discounts from. This Groupon thing is a joke, where can I find someone taking a bet against their share price?, I will make a killing if I invest in them. The only thing that ought to make serious money is a product that does something better for less money - everything else is a short term c
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I've listened to Rand Paul. He actually believes that the marketplace should be completely left alone. Leaving Wall Street alone is a terrifying idea.
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>>>then the taxpayers bail the investment banks out
Guess you should have listened to Ron Paul and his Republican "liberty" caucus. They all voted "nay" to the $700 billion banker bailout bill, and it went down in flames. Mr. Paul said the banks, especially the investment ones like AIG, should be allowed to fail so we could rebuild the economy on their broken bones.
But then the Democrats revived the Banker Bailout Bill, bribed the republicans with pork for their districts, and it passed ~10 days later. :-( Frickin' fraggin' mumble.... grrrr! I tried to vote-out my representative for that idiocy, but alas he's still there.
Ron Paul for President in 2016.
The problem here is that the bubble was already blown up. Refusing to bail out those companies, as undeserving as they were, would have lead to much bigger problems. The solution isn't to cut your own neck just to punish the wrongdoers, it is to prevent the situation from arising in the first place. Once you are in that situation, there are no good options.
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and now the undeserving companies have the government by the balls in perpetuity - thanks for setting up the precedent that incentivizes even more privatization of profits and socialization of losses. Expect rerun of the show every few years down the road, but with even better special effects - now in true 3d!
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If only I could get those people without any of the associated crazy that goes with them. Gold standard. Good god.
Can someone explain the appeal here? (Score:3)
I see a lot of useless coupons and services when I visit. Some "coupons" require me to buy in. Compared to deal sites like Woot or dealcatcher, I'm not seeing the allure. Typically, most of the "deals" are things like salons and jewerly/makeup which makes me think this is mostly a service for women.
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There are also a good number of restaurant coupons, at least in my area. I've used a couple and have been very pleased. If I like the place I'll be back, otherwise I'm not out the full boat for trying it.
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All of the coupons require you to buy in. They aren't coupons at all but rather reduced price gift certificates (with short expiration dates).
They probably make good money on non-redemptions too.
They have some really stellar deals (Score:3)
Now if it is on stuff that doesn't interest you, well then don't bother. Can't say I use it much myself. However the point is that if you see a deal you like, you buy in. You then get a large reduction in the cost, often 50%. That can be very worth it.
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The best deals are on amazon and ebay:
AMAZON:
- Put the item in your shopping cart. Visit the site every few days, and you'll see it say, "This item's price has dropped". If it's a good deal, buy it.
Example: I got SG1 Complete for only $110.... about half what it would normally cost. Orville Redenbacher popcorn for $15/case or ~40 cents per bag. Nature Valley Granola Bars for 16 cents each. Sony HD Radio for $75.
EBAY, Amazon's Private Market
- Most of the sellers advertise stuff as "new" when it's actual
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- Put the item in your shopping cart. Visit the site every few days, and you'll see it say, "This item's price has dropped". If it's a good deal, buy it.
True, but this technique is not without risk. Prices can rise as well as drop. For example, I put a printer into my shopping cart and decided to wait to buy it. Two weeks later, the price of the printer had increased by $250. Now, a month after that, it's dropped by $100, but is still $150 more than it was when I first put it in the cart.
How is it worth anything? (Score:5, Insightful)
Groupon makes a lot of money. Groupon also has a massive amount of debt. They secured about a billion dollars in funding during a recent 'investment round'.
We are talking about a billion dollars in funding to run a website that requires no novel technology, has no valuable intellectual property, and doesn't have much of a competitive advantage. There isn't anything stopping other companies and people from creating more Groupon clones (as is obviously evidenced by competitors like LivingSocial and Google's upcoming daily deals site).
The VCs must be really desperate for a success story, considering all the 'most innovative companies' coming out of silicon valley have no business model. They want to make money off of one of the pseudo-profitable organizations while they can. Welcome to doctom bubble 2.0.
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Wasn't Bubble 2.0 in 2005? I thought this one was supposed to be called Cloud Bubble!
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(that said, Groupon seems to have quite a momentum; it might be able to direct lots of people where to buy maybe even "better" (as far as profiteers are concerned) than Adsense)
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Just because you have examples of several companies that are being valued for ridiculous amounts of money, doesn't mean they're not over-valued. Twitter is a great example - a company that has no revenue stream whatsoever, and no real plans to create one, and is valued in the billions. Maybe they'll get lucky and stumble accross a business plan and I'll look stupid, but right now I don't see it.
Groupon at least generates revenue, but the fact that they have to keep raising money is strange to me. I hope t
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Twitter and Facebook benefit from the network effect. People use them because everyone else uses them, and there is no point in using another site because it is the other users that make the site so valuable. I'm not sure that Groupon can benefit from the same network effect. Certainly advertisers will use it because they have lots of readers, but there is nothing stopping me from using other coupon sites as well. I mostly look at moneysavingexpert (UK based site).
Re:How is it worth anything? (Score:4, Insightful)
Auctions need an economy of scale to work at all, though. If there aren't people selling there, there's no point going there to buy. If nobody's buying anything, there's no point listing it for sale there. GrouponClone needs enough people to sell, say, 100 coupons to start, and then you can grow from there. You could just run it a little leaner, and charge the restaurant slight less. It's really easy to copy. In some areas of the country, like New York, LivingSocial has way more mindshare than Groupon does, and they started later.
There are probably hundreds of developers and business people out there that just heard about this potential IPO and said "how hard can it be to make that?" Groupon should cash in now, before they get their lunch eaten by 1000 me-too competitors.
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Yeah I don't know. "Sales and Marketing people" is their competitive advantage? Are they much higher quality than the Sales and Marketing folks anywhere else or did they just recycle an old business idea and merry it to the web at an opportune time? I would grant them first mover advantage for sure, but the question is whether they can sustain it in the face of stiffer competition and with the prospect of small business eventually realizing that the quality of the Groupon customer base sucks. [quora.com]
Off topic-ish (Score:4, Interesting)
Am I the only one, or do all the groupon advertisements put anyone else off?
I love the concept of groupon it’s really quite brilliant but for some reason all their ads and even their name totally puts me off. They feature food I like, but it doesn’t look appetising for some reason I can’t put my finger on. Also phrasing like “hot dang” appears to have a negative effect on me.
This isn’t meant to be a troll or anything, I’m legitimately curious. I know I'm not the coupon type, but it seems weird that they put me off so completely.
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their schtick is annoying but totally ignorable. i get their emails into a designated folder and daily just scan it (by eye) for businesses i would have gone to anyway (the business names are always in the subject line without any of their "clever" flavor text); if so, click and print. i make a groupon transaction maybe once every three months. i guess i'm not saving very much, but it is fun to get clothes or good food for half-off.
This is what we value in this country (Score:5, Interesting)
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>So Wall St. intends on pumping 25 billion into a company that doesn't actually even manufacturer anything.
I'm not in any way suggesting that Groupon is worth $25B, but Google doesn't manufacture anything and it's worth a lot of money.
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“The value of a dollar’s worth of cloth is exactly the same as a dollar’s worth of web design. One dollar.”
Or in this case: “The value of a dollar’s worth of coupon marketing is exactly the same as a dollar’s worth of widget manufacturing. One dollar.”
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While manufactured goods and services are all nice and everything, you'd think that a site full of geeks would have a little more appreciation for the value of information. For instance: without a coupon for Groupon, I'd never have even known to stop by the cute little tea shop in downtown San Jose.
I'm not saying it's $25 billion valuable, or that it's an unmitigated boon to society, but have a little respect for the real positive effects you can get from advertising (like reduced costs of search) before y
Tags (Score:2)
Is there a groupon for this? (Score:2)
Not trying to play down the significance but... (Score:4, Informative)
... according to one inflation calculator [146.142.4.24], the $24.6 billion of Google's IPO in 2004 is worth $28.82 billion in 2011 dollars.
Today's Groupon (Score:2)
Actual valuation (Score:2)
Ever read the fine print on coupons? It says "Cash value 1/20 of a cent" So... Anyone care to do the math on how many Groupons need to be cashed in before the company is actually worth 25 Billion Dollars?
I think that's 2 Trillion Groupons. Which means that every person on earth would have to cash in 333 Groupons each.
Opt in spam! (Score:2)
can't wait till people realize this is just opt in spam and go ahead an start opting out of it.
I tried it for a bit, it was the most annoying thing imaginable.
Inflation adjusted value (Score:2)
Inflation has been going crazy. Google IPO'd before the market crashed and the government printed hundreds of billions of dollars. How much is Groupon's IPO worth in Google IPO era dollars?
This article reminds me of the dumb metric that comes out every holiday seasons. "Shoppers spent more this season than they did last season." No shit Sherlock?! Everything was more expensive this season than last season. They might as well say, "Shoppers spent more money on gas getting to the mall this holiday season
Hello dear friend (Score:2)
Welcome back Tech Bubble. How ya been?
Why the tipping point? (Score:3)
Why does Groupon retain the "tipping point" for all their deals? My understanding is that Groupon is the second or third iteration in a series that was based on this idea, and I suppose it was interesting when they were still a startup, no one had heard of them and businesses wanted a little insurance on their investment. But now that they're big, I don't see how it's still relevant. Since they started getting big press, has there been a single Groupon in any market that has failed to hit the tipping point?
Today's deal in Seattle tipped at 100 before 7AM and there are currently over 3000 purchases, with about 50 taking place just within the span of me writing this post. If anything, it seems like the right move now would be to emphasize purchasing before selling out, a la woot.
Part of Groupon's value is that they help businesses plan deals and write excellent and differentiating copy to sell them, and they do a good job of it, so I don't see why they still have the tipping point mechanic. Does anyone even look at it when they evaluate a deal?
anyone else find most groupon offers kinda scammy? (Score:2)
It seems all the local offers I get are places that are advertising a % off of a price that is a % higher than their normal price...the 30% or so savings tends to vary from 5-10% to sometimes actually paying more. I'm hoping it just my area where this happens but if thats the norm I really dont see why in the world it has gotten so popular, either people are really gullible or the investors age.
Groupon is for cheap people (Score:2)
When you present a groupon, the person serving you automatically thinks a few things about you:
1. You are cheap, and therefore will not tip as much.
2. You are going to receive a service or food at a discounted rate than normal, and therefore will not tip as much.
3. You are more likely to be active on yelp, and therefore will n
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At the place I worked, minorities, old people, and under 21 year olds were all avoided like the plague by the experienced servers.
I remember when I was in college and would go out with my friends I would get treated like shit by the servers. Maybe they assumed I would tip badly because I was 20 and looked like a hippie. Guess what? Treat me like shit and I'll tip you badly - self fulfilling prophecy. When we got good service we tipped really well.
Green Stamps. (Score:2)
n/t
Ignorant European (Score:2)
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I'm an American and I am wondering the same thing. Before their distasteful Super Bowl ad I had never even heard of them. And that ad certainly didn't make me want to start using their service. I can't imagine how they could be valued anywhere near what Google is worth.
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Because you are not everyone. Everyone, conversely, does not act in exact concordance with your behavior.
See: Apple, Microsoft, Linux.