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The Internet Stats News

World Internet Traffic To Top 966 Exabytes In 2015 100

Posted by Roblimo
from the all-those-Netflix-streams-add-up dept.
Mark.JUK writes "Networking giant Cisco has released its latest annual Visual Networking Index (VNI) today, which forecasts that world internet traffic will quadruple by 2015 to reach 965.5 ExaBytes per year (up from 242.4 ExaBytes in 2010); when 40% of the world's population will be online (i.e. 3bn Internet users). Internet video will account for 61% of all consumer traffic in the same year, while P2P (File Sharing) will decline significantly to just 16%."
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World Internet Traffic To Top 966 Exabytes In 2015

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  • That's a lot of porn
    • by Anonymous Coward

      Now if only Slashdot admin would get a clue about JavaScript we could get rid of the irritating "Working..." graphic permanently stuck at the bottom of each page.

      Oh yeah and when you click on a post in a message they could fix their CSS so every single click (even to cut and paste) doesn't redirect you to the top of the page.

      Do they never preview and test anything before putting it on the production servers? Sloppy and unprofessional.

      • Re:966 EB (Score:5, Insightful)

        by maxwell demon (590494) on Wednesday June 01, 2011 @11:31AM (#36308764) Journal

        Now if only Slashdot admin would get a clue about JavaScript we could get rid of the irritating "Working..." graphic permanently stuck at the bottom of each page.

        Oh yeah and when you click on a post in a message they could fix their CSS so every single click (even to cut and paste) doesn't redirect you to the top of the page.

        Do they never preview and test anything before putting it on the production servers? Sloppy and unprofessional.

        Also, it would be nice if the score of a post would be shown also if several parent posts are collapsed. And if clicking somewhere in a post with collapsed ancestors would do whatever the action is for that place (follow a link, place focus into input box, etc) instead of uncollapsing one of the ancestors.

        Or basically, make Slashdot again a site that works.

      • by PJ6 (1151747)

        It makes me mad when I see an application that has lots of users and remains broken indefinitely. That's because I'm a software developer and I have to actually fix my mistakes before a project's considered done.

        When I see obvious breakage, I ask myself, "What was going through developer X's mind? Did he just not care? I don't have to use ./ so I guess it doesn't count, but when I see it in software I must use, it makes me want to give the developer/PM a good hard slap across the face and ask them if they

      • It would be good if, while commenting, clicking the text area simply positionated the cursor at the place you clicked, instead of placing the cursor at the end of the comment, and sending the focus to the first comment on the thread.

    • by MrHanky (141717)

      It's a lot of information. Too bad most of it is wrong.

    • by Gilmoure (18428)

      Only 965.9 EB is porn.

    • It's even more online American Idol.

  • A much more interesting story than a bunch of increasing marketing numbers by a company that benefits from increasing numbers, would be an explanation of how they made up these numbers...

  • Netflix's fault! Their clogging up the tubes. Them and that insidious YouTube will all those horrible lol cats.
  • by Anonymous Coward

    I'm not sure I'd agree that p2p will decline! After all, now that MS bought Skype, I'd imagine Skype will continue to grow, and that's p2p. And many video sources could go that route also. And in the past, even MS has said p2p would be a nice way to sell software.

  • by jandrese (485) <kensama@vt.edu> on Wednesday June 01, 2011 @11:14AM (#36308574) Homepage Journal
    I wonder if 4 years ago Cicso was saying that streaming video was going to account for the majority of internet traffic in 2011? Trying to extrapolate future data use based on current trends is a risky business, and historically people have gotten it wrong a lot. 4 years is a very long time in internet time, who knows what new technology will come along in the meantime and soak up all of the bandwidth?
    • by Zarhan (415465)

      Well, they just acquired Tandberg, so they are hoping to sell a *lot* of HD-quality videoconferencing hardware :)

    • by mbone (558574)

      I wonder if 4 years ago Cicso was saying that streaming video was going to account for the majority of internet traffic in 2011?

      Yes, they were

      • by Vlado (817879)

        Second this.

        I deliver quite a few Cisco trainings and I remember at least 3 years ago there was information there which stated that Youtube will be the main reason for ISPs to upgrade their infrastructure.

  • by AmiMoJo (196126) <mojo@@@world3...net> on Wednesday June 01, 2011 @11:27AM (#36308714) Homepage

    ISPs must be worried. At the moment they can throttle "heavy" users and still claim "unlimited" service, but even now we are seeing many of them being unable to copy with streaming video demands in the evenings. Soon everyone will be a heavy user.

    • I think they'll be fine with it. It'll give them another excuse to cry to the government for subsidiaries "for infrastructure upgrades," and then pocket the money instead...again.
    • They always need excuses to raise rates. This is their excuse, even before usage goes up. "Projections show we need to quintuple bandwidth!" 500% increase in rates on all users, purchase a new routers for major urban areas, screw everyone else.

  • by Frederic54 (3788) on Wednesday June 01, 2011 @11:29AM (#36308734) Journal
    in 2015, our monthly cap would have increased from 50GB/month to maybe 100GB/month, with $7 per additionnal GB, all of this for only $99/month!
    • by cdpage (1172729)
      The CRTC has put a hold on that still, as far as i knew.
      It will be nice though when the major providers open that back up.

      Canada is going to be SO far behind the in the internet economy in a couple years.
      • by cdpage (1172729)
        good article on how things stand in Canada as of May.

        http://seekingalpha.com/article/269531-why-canadian-cable-companies-and-telecoms-are-in-trouble

        It is worth noting that SHAW is increasing it's Cap on its higher end rape options, i mean subscriptions. June 7th 2011

        Shaw's High Speed plan caps for High Speed will jump from 60GB to 125GB. The Extreme from 100GB to 250GB. Other plans will at least double their monthly allowance.
        as well, Videotron and Telus have increased there Caps to 170GB and 250GB
      • by Combatso (1793216)
        only on third party ISPs.. the big ISPs (Rorgers, Bell) have capped usage, and they dont intend to stop.
    • by gstoddart (321705) on Wednesday June 01, 2011 @11:47AM (#36308956) Homepage

      in 2015, our monthly cap would have increased from 50GB/month to maybe 100GB/month, with $7 per additionnal GB, all of this for only $99/month!

      Actually, by 2015 I see our monthly cap getting smaller as they continue to not invest in upgrading their networks.

      The last decade has more or less been comprised of Bell and Rogers charging us more for less, and telling us it's an improvement.

      If I tried to buy the same cell-phone plan I have now from the same company, it would cost $10/month more -- for less minutes, and the "evenings and weekends" starting after 9pm instead of 6pm.

      From what I can tell, the major telcos are using their 10 year old infrastructure, charging is more for it, and telling us that it's new and improved.

    • by Tanktalus (794810)

      According to my Shaw customer-care page, my monthly cap (at 25Mbps) is 100GB (up+down). Last month, I managed to get to 94GB. My normal is about 60GB.

      While this doesn't really invalidate your point (why merely 100GB per month?), I do think proper numbers are in order. It may just be that Shaw sucks less than Rogers. Then again, you probably live in Toronto, which thinks that "Toronto" and "Canada" are synonymous, thus the confusion. (Your nick makes me think Quebec, but I find it's generally pretty rar

      • by Yvan256 (722131)

        The monthly cap for Télébec (2MBits and 5MBits cable modems) is only 35GB (up+down).

        I'd loooooooove to have 25Mbps with a 100GB monthly cap. How much is that?

      • by Frederic54 (3788)
        I live in QC yup, and here the monopoly is Bell (ADSL) and Videotron (cable), and they are about double price and half cap, compared to other provinces.

        And I am Canadian! :-)
  • According to TFA P2P volume increases, just not as quickly as other traffic.

  • Break down (Score:4, Funny)

    by benwiggy (1262536) on Wednesday June 01, 2011 @11:31AM (#36308766)
    50% Porn
    23% Lol Cats
    10% Facebook
    5% Teen sensation
    2% Conspiracy theories, petitions, "Do this to stop Facebook checking up on you", etc.
    0.5% Email
    0.4% Business
    0.1% Literature, Science, Art, other stuff that is beneficial to mankind
    • by benwiggy (1262536)
      No one knows what the missing 9% is for....
    • by ckhorne (940312)

      0.1% Literature, Science, Art, other stuff that is beneficial to mankind

      And if this was actually true, that'd be 1 exabyte (1 million terabytes) for shared knowledge. Still considerable, given where the world was just 20 years ago.

    • by Combatso (1793216)
      to be fair, porn and lolcats are this generations Art.
    • by chrismcb (983081)

      0.1% Literature, Science, Art, other stuff that is beneficial to mankind

      Because obviously keeping in touch with friends, doing business, having an occasional laugh, and discussing issues with peers is NOT beneficial to mankind

  • Because so much of the P2P _is_ video.
  • .... then I think it's time for the ISP providers to stop bitching' about having to build the infrastructure and just build it already, because that's an awful lot of info being passed around, whether or not it's music, videos, movies or what ever. The world is ever changing, people and companies have to constantly change with the technology if they wish to stay up with the world. As more and more companies push for people to go through the web to do business more and more people will get online, and if t

  • Look at all those copies. It's no wonder that our outdated copyright laws can't possibly keep up in the Information Age.

    We couldn't obey those laws if we tried... How many copies traverse routers without license -- I've yet to see a web page that says:

    Copyright (c) 2001, 2008-2010 Someone
    Duplication of this content is expressly permitted via intermediary routers and information caching servers for the sole purpose of distributing this work to visitors of this website so long as these intermediary duplications are temporary -- destroyed after a period having a duration no longer than 72 hours.

    Every last one of us commits contributory infringement via inducing the breach of copyright on our behalf...

    Ironically, it seems that only works produced under the Free Software, Creative Commons, and Open Source copyright licenses can be legally transmitted simply because these licenses seek to reverse or nullify the restrictions granted by copyright. ("Copyleft -- all rights reversed.")

    The founding fathers wrote that we should uphold the spirit of the laws they set forth -- Thus allowing old laws to remain relevant and sever their purpose instead of being twisted by time and interpretations of the letter of the law.

    Copyright was allowed to exist for the benefit of the society as a whole. Now that it can not be upheld, and the society suffers its weight it should be abolished. How do you know the web page's copyright notice until you've already copied the page many times?!.

    Copyright was intended to allow artists & authors to keep the greedy publishers at bay -- Now the greedy publishers use the law to harm the general public and the authors/artists. Additionally, with our own computers we are all elevated to the status of "publisher" or "distributor" when we should not have been, thus allowing the harsh law to ensnare us all when it was intended to restrict only a few.

    The spirit of the law has been violated; We ignored the foresight of the founding fathers. Now we suffer in our arrogance.

    • Copyrights predate the Constitution.

      Copyrights benefit society by giving a creator exclusive rights to profit from his work therefore encouraging him to create more.

      "Greedy publishers" didn't even really exist as we know them today. Whoever had access to a printing press was essentially a publisher. Big conglomerates like today didn't exist.

      You have a gross misunderstanding of how networks work.

      • No. I know perfectly well how networks work. I know that 1000 to 1500 bytes of data is a mere fraction of a movie or a song. I know that I would be able to take this fractional part of such a copyrighted work and use it under the fair-use provisions, including the distribution of it to my neighbors. I know that following this logic, a bittorrent file sharing system should be able to simply claim fair use on any movie or song download (following the letter of the law), especially if only a single packet

    • How many copies traverse routers without license

      I don't know about foreign law, but 17 USC 512(a) [bitlaw.com] appears to exempt the ephemeral copies made in the RAM of a router from liability for infringement.

    • by chrismcb (983081)

      The spirit of the law has been violated; We ignored the foresight of the founding fathers. Now we suffer in our arrogance.

      Yes you are right. The spirit of the law has been violated because of all the greedy people who don't want to pay for their entertainment (rationalizing their theft in a variety of ways) Allowing "copies" of works to to exist to be transferred from the "publisher" to your screen doesn't break the spirit of the law. Copyright exists for the benefit of the creator, whether that creator is an individual or a conglomerate, it doesn't matter. And yes you can obey the law if you tried. But most people don't car

  • I wonder if these people have never heard of significant digits... what is the point of going to the first decimal? Are they trying to tell me their four year away prediction is that accurate?

  • Video is already a big reason people use the Internet and no doubt all forms of Internet traffic will grow. But I'm always struck at how hard Cisco is working to sell the idea of video growth ... given that it is trying to convince the world that they need to ditch their current routers and switches and upgrade to its latest, greatest wares. Maybe it's true, but it still feels like a sales pitch.

    Julie
  • Come on guys, 966 EB ? Why hold back ? Why not 966.1415927 EB in 2015 ?

    Seriously, I would doubt any claim to know this number to better than about 50%.

  • increased divorce rates and HD porn. Single horny men in a surplus with a higher res outlet for spank? The equation couldn't be more simple.
  • by TheVelvetFlamebait (986083) on Wednesday June 01, 2011 @03:17PM (#36311380) Journal

    As champions of the internet, I believe that it is Comcast's solemn duty to start sabotaging video traffic now, before things get out of hand.

    • by Bengie (1121981)

      The recent Netflix data about average speed had my ISP above Comcast. If I tracert the data from Netflix, it's coming from Comcast. Somehow my ISP has a better connection to Comcast than Comcast's own customers. Go Figure.

  • It was around the year 2000 I heard a long speech by a short American woman in the Kürhaus in Scheveningen (The Netherlands.) This freshly arrived UUNet manager proclaimed that the Internet would double in traffic every 9 months.

    I preferred to listen the two (very tall, Dutch) senior networkadminstrators that looked at each other in disbelief while muttering "Where did she get her figures from?"

    Contrary to what some might expect, I believe Cisco is akin to the very short American UUNet manager, not the

  • All the ISP's instituted their bandwidth caps. The reality will be much smaller now.

  • The DNA replication in a human body does about 500 TB per second.

  • Without verifying or validating Ciscos forecast, the fact remains that traffic will grow to unmanageable proportions. Bandwidth caps or costly bandwidth will not act as a deterrent and should not too. The solution is definitely better compression of any media as these are the guzzlers. We at Chazz Studios identified this and are working on the worlds most powerful Media compressors. Imagine a 1 hour video file in a few Kilobytes.

It is better to give than to lend, and it costs about the same.

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