2012 and the Technology Blahs 130
Velcroman1 writes "Generally, at the end of the year, predictions stream forth as to how this or that new technology will transform the world in the next 12 months. Just before Christmas, IBM announced computerized mind reading was just around the corner — sometime after 2017, that is. But on the whole, experts and analysts don't see a whole lot of innovation coming out of the U.S. anytime soon. Instead, they see sluggishness. 'We'll have to wait for consumer spending to go up before the 'flying surfboard' arrives,' said Chris Stephenson, co-founder of Seattle consulting firm ARRYVE. 'Bigger innovation labs and companies are holding back on numerous innovations until they can properly monetize them.'"
And here are the predictions for 2012 (Score:5, Informative)
Apart from making the whole web more interconnected between different websites, web browsers starting to look and behave more like iPad, complete with push notifications and geolocation, and HTML5 ads replacing majority of flash based ads, the article also predicts that browser makers will start to introduce App Stores within their browsers. In fact, Chrome already has one.Facebook will also get a lot more seamlessly integrated with your desktop, including file system access, photo syncing and widgets on your screen. There will also be an increasing amount of HTML5 based social games and online cloud based apps that replace every functionality you needed desktop apps for. All of these changes and features will start to blur the line between desktop and browser and will also bring your social graph more closely into contact with your traditional desktop experience.
Re:And here are the predictions for 2012 (Score:5, Insightful)
Marketing speak decoded:
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"Apps" for browsers -> pay per view content
Permit me to respectfully disagree. I use a few of the Chrome apps, mostly like offline GMail and Google Calendar because I have extended periods away from an internet connection when I still need to be able to access these things. Chrome Remote Desktop is quite useful as well. Sure, pay-per-view stuff may arrive, but I doubt it will even become a major thing.
Re:And here are the predictions for 2012 (Score:4, Insightful)
In the beginning it's free or really cheap... then you get hooked on it and then the costs keep going up. Are you like 18 or have you not noticed this general trend where the consumer is concerned?
If there is a way to exploit the consumer with technology, they have ALWAYS done so. Everything you do, everything you see, everything you eat, every breath you take, every move you make... it's worth something to someone and they will always do everything they can get away with to capitalize on it. The only areas which aren't being exploited are either prohibited by law or new enough that they haven't yet figured out how to best exploit.
Re:And here are the predictions for 2012 (Score:5, Insightful)
Are you like 18 or have you not noticed this general trend where the consumer is concerned?
Are you like 18 that you have no self-control or disposable income? I have about 40-60 apps on my Android. I paid for exactly one, because it was a non-trivial app that I use every day, for at least an hour to two hours. The rest are all free. Exactly one comes with ads, and I only have it because it's a fun game to play with friends (I won't mention the game because I don't want to give extra publicity to the game, and because I don't want to admit that I actually support the company via ads).
Do some research on what you use, and you can live a nice, uncluttered life filled with useful apps that don't cost you a dime. And if you do find a particularly nice one, do the right thing and donate.
Then the poor schmucks making the app won't have to turn to the dark side to make a living.
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It's okay...I play Words with Friends, too. Damn you, Zyngaaargh.
Fixed that for you. :-)
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In the beginning it's free or really cheap... then you get hooked on it and then the costs keep going up.
I was thinking the same thing earlier this morning when I was making a JE about games. Back in the DOOM and Duke Nukem 1 days, they gave games away, or at least enough of the game that it was a full game. When I registered DN1, they not only sent two more levels (actually two more DNgames), but a third, unrelated game as well. By the time Quake came around the shareware model was almost gone, but you had
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I have to admit, reading that I kinda chuckled...
"offline gmail" - POP/SMTP client
"offline google calendar" - iCal subscription to google calendar or I hear Windows has some sort of "subscibe to calendar" feature
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Yes, I realise this, I'm not a total noob.
I just usually use these things in my browser, I hate having a million and one applications installed when I can just use one. I used to use the Offline bits with Gears in Firefox but that was killed some time ago. I just prefer to do things this way.
Re:And here are the predictions for 2012 (Score:5, Insightful)
That's all I need. A browser that gives away all of my personal information so that advertising creeps can push sell a lot of crap on top of the web pages I'm trying to view. And on top of that it's going to make me use a very clunky "touchscreen" style user interface full of downloadable craplets rather than taking advantage of the keyboard and mouse that my desktop has always had.
Call my cynical but I really see all of this as the web going downhill. Sure, there are great new technologies that can make things better. But as with any tool, it depends on how you use it. In this case, it's not being used to make anything better.
Oh yea, I almost forgot the obligatory "get off my lawn" statement...
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Eh, I have plenty of karma already. I'm not worried about getting voted up.
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Stop running MSIE, Chrome or any other browser from a publisher which might seek to make a buck from you. Best bet is an OSS browser which has been forked and rebranded and sanitized by privacy interest groups.
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I use Firefox, which probably isn't the best. But NoScript and Ad Block Plus make a huge difference. It's amazing how many websites use scripts from Twitter, Facebook, and google-analytics.
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There's Ad Block on Chrome. I have that.
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online cloud based apps that replace every functionality you needed desktop apps for
Already almost there, at work.
We downgraded from a opensource web based ticket system to a local client home grown POS ticket system that doesn't work as well. This I'm sure will move back to the web.
We still have ms office installed although people are starting to use web alternatives for convenience whenever possible.
Our current CAD system does not have a web viewer. I'm sure that will change eventually. Maybe the cheapskates just have not paid for it.
There are a couple weird engineering apps of the $$
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Facebook will also get a lot more seamlessly integrated with your desktop, including file system access...
The hell it will.
Am I the only person who really isn't keen on this happening? I'm not a luddite, but this isn't really my field. The way I'm familiar with the web and JavaScript is that it specifically has no access to the local filesystem on your machine. Someone correct me if I'm wrong?
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One can only hope that it causes facebook to crash in some spectacular way that prevents it from ever working again. I wouldn't mind if it made Zuckerberg's shoes strongly adhere to all surfaces at the same time. Both are just as likely.
Oh well, one can still hope.
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It think they're talking about adding a widget/toolbar/whatever or standalone executable that interfaces with facebook.
Well, a lot of users will already be familiar with widgets and toolbars that offer them cool features. They're probably enjoying their Super Smiley Packs and Free Stock Update Ticker Web Applet Widgets too much to care.
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How to Monetize a Flying Surfboard: (Score:5, Insightful)
Invent a flying surfboard.
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Read: accountants are strangling progress (Score:1)
The depressing part is that this is not only true but the status quo.
Sluggish? (Score:2)
Consumer spending never goes back up? (Score:5, Interesting)
What if consumer spending never goes back up, adjusted for inflation? .edu, medical, car/transportation, energy, food, and housing costs have recently been exploding.
I know that adjusted for inflation the median has had less income every year for something like 40 years.
Also
Then add in "new" expenses. Very few people were spending $150/month on smartphone bills more than a couple years ago.
Leaving less money for consumer spending every year.
so... those companies who wait, might be waiting a very long time indeed, like until they go out of business.
Re:Consumer spending never goes back up? (Score:5, Funny)
Also .edu, [...] costs have recently been exploding.
I know how you feel! Those domain registrars are nuts. How are we supposed to get by if the fake university websites we set up to fool our parents are unaffordable? ICANN should do something.
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What if consumer spending never goes back up, adjusted for inflation? I know that adjusted for inflation the median has had less income every year for something like 40 years.
That's what "competitiveness" is all about. Wages decline until they're just above survival level. This eliminates most discretionary consumer spending, and the economy stabilizes at a low level. That's the "free market" applied to labor. Your life will just barely work, forever. Deal with it.
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Putting that logic trainwreck aside for a moment....
The alternative is that the government will mandate economic controls and dictate what will be made, at what level of advancement, by whom, and to whom it shall be given. It would be wholly irresponsible for that government to spend on advancements that merely provide luxuries. The "people's" money should instead be sp
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So you're suggesting that capitalism desires that people have no money to spend to support the businesses that require their spending?
Right. Capitalism is dysfunctional in that way. What individual businesses want isn't necessarily optimal for businesses collectively.
Here's the CEO of Wal-Mart complaining that his customers are running out of money. [cnn.com]
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The only aspect of "businesses collectively" that's even relevant in that article is the passing comment about increased fuel prices causing less spending capacity of the customers. This particular article is speaking to the sales of Wal Mart being a barometer for the spending of the nation, and they were noting declining sales. The CEO discussed how Wal Mart made some bad choices and reduced variety of goods rather than prices and
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The argument is not between a plain colored scarf and a printed scarf (available from Target...
If there is no capitalism, there is no Target. That's the point. Theres no Starbucks, or Dodge, or Dell, or Best Buy, or Levi's, or CNN, or a million other corporations that provide an alternative to their competitor's products. More specifically there's no Dell and HP. There's US Computers. And US Auto. And US News. And US Grocers with a US Coffee brand available.
If there's no capitalism, there's no competitive market. Government controls what is made, and how it's distributed. Maybe it'll be efficient
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There's a reason economics is the "dismal science". This is just an application to the individual of the maxim that marginal profit under perfect competition is zero.
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All of those things are consumer spending.
And none of them are innovative, at least in the short term. And I can't even imagine what could be released in those fields that is innovative.
I suppose buying gasoline, natgas for the furnace, electricity for the air conditioner, would be pretty innovative on a multi-century time scale, but not compared solely to next year.
Medical is not innovative for consumers. For tech types we understand new things are always arriving. For management types there are purchase orders to be decided on. For joe 6pack
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Medical is not innovative for consumers.
Holy crap, you're either very young or you haven't been to a hospital in a long time. Ever hear of ether? That used to be used as a anasthetic in surgery. They used cloth and plaster for broken bones, hot as hell if you sweat. They never had defilibrators, OR monitors, stents, artificial joints, CrystaLens implants, MRI, sonograms, cochlear implants... no innovation? Congratulations on the most ignorant comment I've seen today, son.
Food is certainly not innovative
I se
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Beware the writing. (Score:2)
Never mind the mind reading. When the mind writing starts being used more (at the moment I can't remember when that will be) by forces up to no good, those aspiring for truth and justice will often find themselves in interesting and infuriating trouble.
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Re:We're up to our ass in debt (Score:4, Interesting)
What happens when consumer spending DOESN'T rebound?
You just adjust government statistics until it damned well does rebound. That's what numbers are for.
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What happens when consumer spending DOESN'T rebound?
The economy will contract from it's inflated value accordingly and life will go on after much worthless pundit banter and political grandstanding. If the contraction is drastic enough, there will probably be a global financial system collapse after QE-X causes the printing presses to overheat. Or it will increase and we will keep racking up more debt until we hit the same ceiling again. Rinse. Repeat.
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What happens when consumer spending DOESN'T rebound?
They will blame it on piracy and get the "losses" compensated by taxes, just as it is now happening with blank CDs.
Captcha: "revenues"
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What happens when consumer spending DOESN'T rebound?
Consumer spending will go up when consumer earning goes up.
If one company offshores its work, that's smart. If they all do it, there's no one left with enough money to buy their products.
The Word Monetize (Score:5, Interesting)
And yes I know that a demand for XYZ creates incentives for business to develop/produce/be competitive. But the trend is going towards areas of research that have a high-risk / low-reward ration being foregone if everything is free-market, and technologies that can't possibly be implemented without 20+ years of research will rarely have private/corporate money sunk into them, even though in the long term they could have a dramatic positive impact on the quality of life for the human population.
Or is it all about the money these days? Any hard-liner Adam Smith's here? Money solves all woes, right? Right?
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Any hard-liner Adam Smith's here? Money solves all woes, right? Right?
Adam Smith never made such a claim.
If we could monetize your stupidity, then we'd be able to do away with scarcity, like on Star Trek.
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Telling someone they're wrong and calling them stupid doesn't add much value to the discussion.
I'm not surprised that someone would have this view of Adam Smith, and it made me think of this article
http://www.chomsky.info/books/warfare02.htm [chomsky.info]
That's a very informative link, there, thanks.
nobody is sitting on a flying surfboard. (Score:3)
the premise of the article is pure bullshit. if someone had a flying surfboard they most certainly wouldn't sit on it so that they could monetize it - they would be monetizing it already. if you look at money poured at research, I'll bet you'll find it's more than ever before. it's just harder to come up with something people need which makes sense, is practical and what people would actually want and would help people(and not just essentially be a toy, like a new way of toggling a switch).
personally, I'd l
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Gov't funded anything shouldn't happen.
Gov't funded research is there for war, that's one of 2 purposes:
1. War.
2. Theft.
There is only 1 things that politicians really want to spend on: themselves.
There is only 1 thing wrong with democracy: voters.
--
The rockets, the computers, the Internet, the phones, the electrical power and electrical instruments, everything we do, we do because we are trying to make a better living for ourselves. Tsiolkovsky developed the theory of rocketry, but until the private sector
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Missing factor in predictions (Score:5, Insightful)
A few recent examples just in the Android field were that android device makers have to pay Microsoft because using/suporting the fat filesystem, Oracle suing Google for using Java, Samsung get their tablets out of the market because their dimensions looks a bit like the ipad ones. Not saying that it was the example of innovation and new ideas in computing, but the kind of unbreakable barriers our current civilization built to stop any try to build a future.
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People that try to innovate get sued...
OK.
android device makers have to pay Microsoft because using/suporting the fat filesystem
"Innovating" by using a 20 year old file system. As mentioned by others, if they would use a more modern filesystem they'd be clear.
Oracle suing Google for using Java
"Innovating" by blatantly copying Java without paying any dues. (hint: they could have designed a new language/platform instead of ripping off J2ME)
Samsung get their tablets out of the market because their dimensions looks a bit like the ipad ones
"Innovating" by ripping off the design by Apple.
Not saying that it was the example of innovation and new ideas in computing
Then what is so "innovative" about Android anyway? That you can run a bastardized version of Linux (a 20 year old OS) on a phone?
I don't mean to dismiss the general notion that ther
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Regarding java and Linux, originally at least was meant to run apps in a vm, java was the most known language for that, but could had require enough changes to need something new. And Linux was a good OS to run that VM over
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Yeah, it would be SO DIFFICULT to switch the profile to a network device and have a Samba server there.
What, by the way, also applies to cameras and GPS devices.
I double dog dare Microsoft to mess with that, considering that they pretend to co-operate with Samba developers.
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All the OSs I've run into the the most recent few years fully support UDF. And FUSE (if installed) seems to almost require ZFS be installed as well.
A quick check of flash media locally turns up nothing but UDF. If including optical media, it's split between UDF and ISO-9660. So what doesn't support UDF these days?
Why bother inventing? (Score:5, Insightful)
The risk of being sued for patent infringement is sufficiently high to prevent me from bothering. I wonder how unique I am in this regard.
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The risk of being sued for patent infringement is sufficiently high to prevent me from bothering. I wonder how unique I am in this regard.
Not very. I have five patent plaques on the wall behind me. For me, the risk is not being able to collect for infringement because of high litigation costs.
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The risk of being sued for patent infringement is sufficiently high to prevent me from bothering. I wonder how unique I am in this regard.
Not very. I have five patent plaques on the wall behind me. For me, the risk is not being able to collect for infringement because of high litigation costs.
Bigger risk is if something I invented actually became significantly profitable. Then any well-funded corporation or troll with an overly broad patent could come after me, and I couldn't afford to defend myself.
And, if you could persuade a patent troll that your patent applied, I expect you'd be tempted to let them buy it from you so they could come after me.
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Bigger risk is if something I invented actually became significantly profitable. Then any well-funded corporation or troll with an overly broad patent could come after me, and I couldn't afford to defend myself.
Start a corporation, pay yourself a big enough salary (we ARE assuming you are significantly profitable, right?), and then when you are sued, have your corporation declare bankruptcy and release the software as open source. All your money will be protected and you'll be rich.
There are a lot of schemes like this, be sure to consult with a lawyer once you start raking in the dough. Also, don't ask me to feel sorry for you, once you're a millionaire. I won't.
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Start a corporation, pay yourself a big enough salary (we ARE assuming you are significantly profitable, right?), and then when you are sued, have your corporation declare bankruptcy and release the software as open source. All your money will be protected and you'll be rich.
There are a lot of schemes like this, be sure to consult with a lawyer once you start raking in the dough. Also, don't ask me to feel sorry for you, once you're a millionaire. I won't.
Good point! Now I'm totally going to start commercializing my ideas!
Why bother making a profit? (Score:1)
Just sell some dot com shares. Or Shares in Flying Surfboards Inc.
Take the investor money and pay yourself and your hoodlum posse a fat salary. The trick is to stay in business a couple of years to make it look like a failed venture, rather than outright investment fraud.
Another good scam is to sell financial paper you engineered to crash, and then short your own paper.
Still too much work?
Print Trillions of QEx dollars and hand them out to your friends.
When that stops working, try to hold the world financi
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So the only way to have the patent system benefit you is to drain your own company of funds and toss everyone out on the street once the going gets tough? Wow. The future is depressing. Note that I don't disagree with you, but I find your notion of how to make the patent system work for you a particularly depressing one.
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Note that I don't disagree with you, but I find your notion of how to make the patent system work for you a particularly depressing one.
It is, I don't like it, but it shouldn't stop you from inventing. It should be noted that the above scenario is rare in practice.....most of the time your company will survive a patent onslaught.
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To, "Why bother inventing? Someone else is just going to steal it, mass produce it, and I'll still be exactly where I am today after enriching someone else."
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I have been sitting on an idea for a sweet app to target a specific aspect of the media, but am having trouble pulling the trigger on development because I will almost certainly get sued. Anything that does any type of streaming is a mine-field as we have seen many times here on /. My coworkers always joke when I get up on my soap box about patent reform, but I honestly don't think they are aware of how impossible it is to innovate.
Innovate, dammit! (Score:5, Interesting)
'Bigger innovation labs and companies are holding back on numerous innovations until they can properly monetize them.'
And citizens are holding on to their money until they see something worth buying. Innovate, dammit!
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Small businesses can't innovate, because they get destroyed by patent infringement litigation costs whenever they try.
Big businesses won't innovate, because they make more money from rent seeking, and their shareholders demand those returns.
There are exceptions, of course. But don't expect either group to put their necks out just because you are tight-fisted.
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More Droids! (Score:2)
I don't think enough variants of the same system have been regurgitated [wikipedia.org] since they broke from the G1. Who wanted a cross-carrier device when we can enjoy buying another over-priced, locked device? Consider and enjoy the long, fruitful relationship we get when we're locked in to a 2 year bonded friendship with yours and my newest BFF.....
Blame the Mayans (Score:3)
Who wants to develop cool stuff when the world is about to end?
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lol (Score:2)
'Bigger innovation labs and companies are holding back on numerous innovations until they can properly monetize them.'
lol conspiracy. There is no innovation because military and entertainment, the only two areas where any innovation was done recently in US (and mostly in the world) are already completely saturated with awful ideas being implemented at ridiculously high cost.
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in other news, US consumers still spend $1000's/yr (Score:1)
Despite what consumer spending numbers might tell you, it is also quite obvious that huge numbers of US consumers are willing and apparently have the means to spend many $1000's/yr on iPhones, iPads, pricey wireless contracts, expensive cable TV services and many other "luxury" items. All that stuff adds up quickly to many $1000's/yr... so there *is* plenty of spending and disposable income around...
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"partner and co-founder at Seattle-based strategy consulting firm ARRYVE, told FoxNews.com. "Bigger innovation labs and companies are holding back on numerous innovations until they can properly monetize them."
can't be any more bullshit than that! it's got seattle(let's all move to seattle and use slow modems), foxnews, douchebagly named consulting business and "they got secrrett techh in dem government caves!" all in one.
Consumer spending (Score:1)
Consumer spending will recover, but it will not make up as large a share of the US economy as it once did. That ship has sailed. Best not lie about waiting for it to return to port.
Innovation from big companies (Score:2)
Because we all know that innovation stems primarily from the "bigger innovation labs", right?
Innovation comes from grass-roots endeavors, and always has. The paradigm is for an individual (or small group of individuals) to start a small business, build it up big, and take market share away from the big companies.
Big companies become clogged by process and moribund. They become "risk averse", preferring to sit on their laurels and collect rent from existing product.
The problem is that the paradigm no longer
Interesting (Score:2)
Patent Term Extension Act (Score:1)
'Bigger innovation labs and companies are holding back on numerous innovations until they can properly monetize them.'"
The longer they wait, the less time they will have to "properly monetize them" as the patents will run out. So, what dark clouds do we see building on the horizon?
Fear mongering and ignoring the rest of the world (Score:2)
We'll have to wait for consumer spending to go up before the 'flying surfboard' arrives
How dumb is a quote like that? Well in France they actually HAVE a flying surfboard, RIGHT NOW. Way for your first "prediction" to be completely wrong. I won't bother to point out the "news" source that would publish this kind of hyper-pessimist attitude, you can fill in the blank yourselves.
http://www.tomsguide.com/us/Water-Powered-Jetpack-Boots-Rocket,news-13444.html [tomsguide.com]
waiting to Monetize (Score:1)
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Flying surfboards! (Score:1)
Slugish, like the patent system. (Score:1)
At this point the issue is less innovation limited then litigation limited.
Combine the U.S. patent system with digital rights management and things grind to a halt.
Nations with less limiting laws have an advantage much larger than
we are inclined to believe. Combine with financial pressures and
what ya see is what ya get.
Super Solar EMP storm ends electricity & compu (Score:2)
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There was a time when that were true, but with stores pushing gifts rather than the reason, whether you believe or not (which I do not, it's a pagan holiday after all). What I do believe is the message. It shouldn't be limited to one day/week/month a year either.
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I think everyone but me missed on the big red flag in the troll parent: WTF should we defeat every other nation?! How can that be anyone's goal?? What kind of a fucked up ideology is that? If that guy/gal seriously thinks that and claims themselves to be Christian, they need to take a long view in the mirror because they are really, truly fucked up, no other word for that. Christian my ass. Sigh.
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Why of course the only way to true godliness is the complete and utter annihilation of every country by one country and one ruler. Then, you will know righteousness.
Oh yeah, if you don't believe in what your told, wrath will be released upon you. After all, any loving person invokes wrath upon their child for not believing what they're told.
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If you think it's somehow Christian and necessary to "meet and defeat" all other nations, then you I think you should seek help because the whole idea has seriously whooshed over your head.
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Do not participate in the secularization of America. We are, have been, and need to continue to be a Christian nation. Through God we will meet and defeat all other nations.
Forgive me for feeding such an obvious troll, but maybe this is a good time to call attention to the fact that there *isn't* any war on Christmas.
What's actually happening is that the social leaders who cry "war on Christmas" are waging a war on diversity and an inclusive society. Their message is: if you don't subscribe to my religion and celebrate the same holidays I do, you don't count, and companies that take account of your diverse views ought to be punished with boycotts.
BTW, even the Pope is waging
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Through God we will meet and defeat all other nations.
I say that to myself when firing up a Civilization game, too.
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Obviously that's the reason for the use of the technology name "flying surfboards".
Trademark Infringement! (Score:2)
The McFly (C) belongs to a hamburger chain, and is available in food like products.