America's Future Is In Software, Not Hardware 630
New submitter tcjr2006 writes "Obama's State of the Union focused on the return of manufacturing jobs to America. This New Yorker story makes the case that the manufacturing jobs aren't going to come back, and he should be focusing on software. Quoting: 'Yes, there are industries where manufacturing jobs can be brought back to America through proper tax incentives and training programs. But maybe he should have talked more about the things that he could do to keep software jobs here. He spoke of federal funding for university and scientific research. But a real pro-software agenda would also include reforming patent law to stop trolling (and perhaps eliminating software patents altogether); increasing H-1B visas for highly skilled coders; stopping Congress from defunding DARPA, whose research helped create Siri, the iPhone’s talking assistant; and opening up the unused, federally owned wireless spectrum. That agenda wouldn’t bring Apple’s manufacturing jobs back, but it would help to keep the company’s coding jobs here. And it would certainly help develop "an economy that’s built to last."'"
Oh yes, software (Score:5, Insightful)
We can eat it, wear it, breathe it... What the hell kind of society will this be if everyone just writes software all day?
Again with the visas (Score:5, Insightful)
increasing H-1B visas for highly skilled coders
How is increasing the number of workers supposed to decrease the unemployment rate?
Re:Again with the visas (Score:4, Insightful)
That is my concern. We have plenty of people ready, willing, and able to code here in the US. H-1Bs usually are gotten because the phrase "the US doesn't have enough skilled workers" usually means "we can't find a CISSP who will work in the Bay Area for $24,000/year." Couple that with "secret requirements", and it is just a lame end run by companies who want US dollars but are otherwise hostile to the nation.
Software will be outsourced just like hardware. (Score:5, Insightful)
It's all moot anyway.... (Score:5, Insightful)
... if we don't seriously fund education for the next generation, and stop thinking we can skimp on that commitment to pay for tax breaks for the rich and extended wars of choice.
Re:Again with the visas (Score:5, Insightful)
More skilled workers means that
- some of them will eventually be enterpreneurs
- it's easier to find people for specific fields of knowledge
More foreign people in that case actually means more jobs for the locals as well, as the economy around it grows.
Re:Oh yes, software (Score:5, Insightful)
That's silly. Almost nobody is engaged in the production of food, yet it's plentiful and cheap. 100 years ago, well over 50% of the population of the US was engaged in agriculture; today, that number is around 2%.
The same forces that drove agricultural employment down have also driven manufacturing employment down. US manufacturing output, after adjusting for inflation, is the highest it's ever been (well, in 2007, it was the highest. It's in a dip right now b/c of the economy.) Meanwhile, manufacturing employment has been dropping steadily since the early '50s. That's only possible because US workers are far more productive than they were in the past.
As US manufacturing workers become more productive, more are freed up to do things which a less prosperous country could not afford to do, like developing software.
Re:Again with the visas (Score:5, Insightful)
It isn't just the tech industry under attack. Maybe someone can explain why Chinese contractors and workers are building bridges here?
http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/us-bridges-roads-built-chinese-firms-14594513?tab=9482930?ion=1206853&playlist=14594944 [go.com]
I'm no "Red State USA1 FUCK YEAH" type of person, but maybe we should start looking into a little bit of economic nationalism. This is anathema to the multi-nationals that own our government though, so we'll just keep importing workers and exporting work till we look like any other third world economy, with a very few controlling all the wealth, and the rest of us eating dirt.
Re:Defunding DARPA is a good idea (Score:5, Insightful)
Even less tangible than software (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Oh yes, software (Score:5, Insightful)
Not going to happen. It was happening, and then someone realized that there already are plenty of general-purpose programmable organic robots far more flexible than any mechanical implement likely to appear within the next 50 years. And that you can in fact maintain these robots far more cheaply than most Westerners think. Thus, Chinese manufacturing was born.
Re:Again with the visas (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Oh yes, software (Score:5, Insightful)
In all fairness, there is a heck of a lot more value in software than in hardware. Hardware is now a commodity, nothing more.
And in other news, this is one of the very very rare piece of wisdom to make it up the front page of slashdot in a long time. It's like there was a disturbance in the force... Did you feel it too?
Re:Oh yes, software (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:It's all moot anyway.... (Score:4, Insightful)
Germany - USA (Score:5, Insightful)
Is it because workers are treated better or is it because they are cheaper?
How is it that The Netherlands is the world's 2nd. largest exporter of agricultural products in value after the US, is it because the country is so blessed with it's climate and available space?
I'm convinced the USofA can be a profitable exporter of manufactered goods and produce providing their managers start looking at the long term instead of just this quarters profits.
Re:Again with the visas (Score:4, Insightful)
bullshit. every indian I know sends huge amounts of money BACK HOME.
and they often plan to return home, eventually; so the investment in them is sunk.
lose/lose for us americans.
I do not support the US pushing more and more toward software. software can be done remotely and that means we won't have a lot of local jobs, FOR ANYONE, if this continues on.
I work in software in the bay area. I'm local born and yet I can't find a job. when I go into interviews, I see many foreign faces and this is not at all a balanced system!
I know very well that almost all of them are overworked and underpaid. but they are more 'abusable' than native-born american citizens. we don't usually 'jump' when the bossman says; but overseas, they feel lucky to have ANY job. they ask 'how high' and bossman loves that shit.
our jobs are gone. MOSTLY due to software, in fact. if we brought hardware (manuf) back, I don't think you'd see the huge influx of people who want to work those jobs. and we'd also be more self sufficient WHEN the foreign goods' quality gets to the point where its impossible to rely on or use anymore.
if the president thinks 'software in the US' is any kind of key to our future, he's more lost-in-a-daze than I even thought possible.
someone's going to make coin from this; but it won't be you or me.
Re:Oh yes, software (Score:4, Insightful)
That's not how it works.
Cheap labor impacts the rate at which machines replace humans for manual jobs, because it reduces the incentive to invest in developing those machines (since there are less savings to be had, so the margins on the machines are lower). But that investment has not been zeroed out by any means.
On top of that, we're talking about American jobs, so who cares what the Chinese are doing? You might as well throw them in the same class as the robots, in the sense that if there is {something} that will do the work cheaper than Americans, Americans had better find some other work to do.
And as time goes on, the number of jobs in that category continues to increase -- it wasn't that long ago that they put in those hand scanners at the grocery store that let you scan the items in your cart as you put them in and then do nothing more than swipe your credit card as you walk out the door. I'd bet a fair number of checkout clerks lost their jobs over that one.
Re:Do We Really Want Those China Jobs? (Score:3, Insightful)
Chinese people aren't less than us - they are people too. Understand that as their economy improves from doing all that work that "we don't want" ours is going into the toilet. Realistically, no matter how demeaning, unglamorous, and tedious those jobs are, THEY HAVE TO BE DONE, and you can't always count on someone else to do them. If we want our economy to prosper, we have to have people willing to do all jobs that need to be done. Otherwise, it's just a matter of time before the Chinese start selling their stuff elsewhere because our currency has no value.
A "service economy" simply isn't going to work. Other countries will NOT keep sending us cheap trinkets for us to sit over here programming and making burgers for each other all day long. At this point the only reason the US economy is still afloat is because we still manage to have a large agricultural presence. If not for that, the whole country would likely be bankrupt by now.
Re:Oh yes, software (Score:0, Insightful)
Fortunately, society generally reacts to that by producing fewer people. We also are quite comfortable employing people to be artists.
Re:Again with the visas (Score:4, Insightful)
If you only consider "Sanjay-would-do-anything-and-is-grateful-for-any-job", then you are right.
They certainly send money home. And don't be fooled, they would bring their whole family to live with them, if they could.
But they spend money locally as well. They also buy ipads, toilet paper and food, like everybody else.
However, the discussion is not about them. Skilled workers are not necessarily those. Skilled workers, local or foreign, are the ones who can found startups, teach at universities and contribute with taxes. A lot of taxes.
Re:Software will be outsourced just like hardware. (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:It's all moot anyway.... (Score:2, Insightful)
85% of my house taxes is a school tax.
Frankly, I think we'd get far better educations if we started under-funding schools.
No serious. 90% of people I went to school with never used the math they learned in high school. Never used most of anything they learned.
Ironically, all the things they needed to know about real life, they never learned.
Go figure....
I am really beginning to think apprenticeship is a better model and that we should return to it. (BTW, if someone didn't show knack for a trade the master would return them to their father and say "this isn't for them.") It allowed for finding one's fit more quickly.
Wisdom? This is a SCIENCE FICTION Thread! (Score:2, Insightful)
Beginning with the alternative hypothesis that America has a future.
The notion is fantastical.
Re:Oh yes, software (Score:5, Insightful)
This isn't a half bad comment, especially for an Anonymous first poster. I see three essential problems with the ideas in the article:
1) As the parent said, you can't eat, wear, or live in software. It's a great business to be in, but I don't want everyone to be in it. I like food, I like fuel, I like a house... all of these things need to be made. They can be made elsewhere, but when we rely on China to make everything we use day to day, we give China the power to starve us, to make us homeless, to leave us without clothes. I'm not an isolationist, and I accept that we live in a global economy, but do we really want to abdicate *all* of our manufacturing to other countries? Having local producers limits energy needs, reduces pollution and makes sure we still have the capacity when something happens and China can no longer provide something for us. Look at what happened to hard drives when Thailand flooded.
2) Not everyone can write software. There, I said it. Not every American has the education, intelligence, drive, interest... whatever to be a producer of software or designer of systems. All of these people who want to "refocus" America on white collar, intellectual property type work places seem to overlook this fact. The country will quickly become a place when you are either an elite (a producer, seller, marketer, manager, or owner of some sort of high tech stuff or other, or old money) or a member of a servant class. The only non-white-collar jobs will be in retail sales, restaurants, etc. Maybe construction, so we all still have places to buy stuff.
3) Not all of these idea will even help all that much with software as a driving force of the economy. Or they they'll help the companies without really helping the US economy. Primarily I'm talking about the H1B stuff here. I'm not suggesting that we stop the H1B program. It's a good thing to try to bring the best and brightest of other nations over; often it's a good thing for both us and the country of origin. Many of these people go home after a while with the experience of having worked in or for some of the largest companies in the world. They carry back useful skills and experience. None the less, this should be a careful and limited program with safeguards in place to make it's not being abused and used to bring in cheap easily abuse-able labor. No one benefits from that (except the greedy bastards abusing the system).
Having said all of this, yes software needs to be a pillar of economic strength for this country. It's important and it's both a driver of our economy and a part of our overall power as a nation. Some of the reforms listed would be very good for the software industry. Finding the things that will help the software industry does not mean we should ignore manufacturing or agriculture, or any of the other pillars of our economy though.
O_0 (Score:3, Insightful)
I have read some insane posts on the internet before, people totally disconnected from reality but this one is so far beyond insanity that it requires the invention of new words.
You think that a simple device that can spray ONE sort of plastic is going to change into a device that can make complex multi-compound materials EVEN FOOD in twenty years?
In twenty years we barely gone from spraying ink to spraying plastic. Or the other way around from devices cutting solid blocks into shapes to spraying materials into solid blocks.
And you think this is going to compete anytime soon with mass production? These maker bots are nice for some form of prototyping. Mass production turns out such plastic forms in mili-seconds, not hours.
If you wanted to make even a small lego set out of this you need days. And you want to use it for the production of a TV or even a car? What about clothes?
And even then, IF makers bots were being used, why would the location of these production machines needing an army of operators NOT be outsourced to china just as maker bots are right now?
Seriously kid, get medical help.
Re:Oh yes, software (Score:5, Insightful)
economies are based on the exchange of goods / services are only part of the economy if they produce goods, because wealth is a measure of accumulated material possessions. So if we all want to have more 'stuff' ... someone needs to do the work to make it.
The problem with our current economy is 70% of our jobs are in service not production. That is BAD, because basically we keep paying each other money ( aka wealth) that we did not create. It just moves around and the actual creation of wealth is being done overseas.
Re:America's future can be in both (Score:3, Insightful)
For one thing, control. If you're not actually making the product then you don't control it. Why do you think apple had that problem with fake apple stores in China? Those stores were stocked with products stolen from apple factories which apple paid for because they had been listed as defective. They weren't defective. They were stolen.
For another, there's a big difference between designing something and actually building it as far as UNDERSTANDING what you're building. If you work with fabric all day for example you're going to have a deeper understanding of what is possible then if only work with a colored pencil. An issue many companies have had in outsourcing jobs is that at some point they're outsourced their key business model. In your example, why does that indian company need you at all? They can advertise their suit making operation directly in your city and direct market their clothing to your customers. By outsourcing to them you might have not only taught them how to do it but you would have shown them the market exists. After all, if your customers are willing to give you clothing, wait for you to send it to india, and then have you hand it back to them. Then couldn't the indian company just cut you out of the loop? What exactly are you offering that's worth anything?
As to not wanting to hire programmers... that's the future. Everyone is going to hire them. Some sort of deep proficiency in programming is going to become like literacy at some point. Do you need to hire people that can read? For some jobs it might not matter. But no modern business can function without at least a clerical staff that can read and write. Likewise, you're going to find that some sort of programming knowledge even if its basic will become increasingly common. Programmed computers will be our partners in all industry and having some programming ability will give businesses flexibility. We can set up cheats for this for a long time... simple tools that give people flexibility without programming knowledge. But eventually simple programming will have to go mainstream.
I could go on... but in my opinion at least your argument is a false economy. Out sourcing is fine if you don't effectively lose the expertise within your company. For example, I have no problem with letting another company sort my mail. It's not that complicated. But if I out source ALL of a certain type of skilled labor from my business then I lose that capability and my company becomes less flexible and more dependent. Lots of companies have made a lot of money doing what you're suggesting... and then gone out of business overnight.
Re:Oh yes, software (Score:5, Insightful)
In all fairness, there is a heck of a lot more value in software than in hardware. Hardware is now a commodity, nothing more.
And in other news, this is one of the very very rare piece of wisdom to make it up the front page of slashdot in a long time. It's like there was a disturbance in the force... Did you feel it too?
The problem is that in ten years we are going to be reading a headline like "America's future is in project management, not software"... Software jobs "belong here" just like advanced manufacturing jobs "belong here". And there is such a thing as "commodity software", just look at your favorite mobile device's app regurgitation orifice if you think that there is not a market for a thousand programs that really do the same thing. Really good software (just like really good hardware) should stand out from the crowd and that is what we should be encouraging ourselves to make. There is a reason the shiny little widgety things that sell well proclaim "Designed In california, made in [a place where environmental and labor laws are favorable]". It would say "Made in the USA" if we had the guts to actually put up with the production of the things we consume so much of.
No one is arguing about keeping *every* manufacturing job here, just like they shouldn't waste their wind trying to get every software job to stay here. We should focus on encouraging us to do what we are good at.
Re:Germany - USA (Score:5, Insightful)
One major difference I can tell you that exists between the US and Germany: scope of thinking. And no, not long-term vs short-term. It's about what people consider success, and what people strive for in business. I'll illustrate it with two small business stories.
Scene: Munich, Germany. 300 year old apartment building with a shop on the ground floor. The shop is a custom boot maker.... who got started about 300 years ago. It's still the same shop, it still makes custom boots, and it has been family owned ever since it got started. Not always the same family, but it's a family business, and doing well enough to support a family for the last 300 years. The current owner has no interest in expanding, of offering funky colors, outsourcing manufacturing to China, or to establish a brand and open branded stores. He just wants to make boots and support his family doing so. Heck, he still works with custom-built wooden boot molds to make his boots, some of which are as old as the shop.
Scene: Silicon Valley, USA. A friend is starting an online business. It's very niche, but it's pretty much the only one of its kind, with pretty much a monopoly on the market and an owner who knows the market like the back of her hand. She is talking to one of her friends, who is an architect at a very large, very successful, pre-IPO startup. Who proceeds to tell her that unless she is going to take on loans and VCs and try to take over the world in the next two years, she is just engaging in a hobby and might as well call it quits.
Guess who is going to be around in a hundred years? My money's on the bootmaker.
Re:Oh yes, software (Score:5, Insightful)
Oh, they'll be employed. But, many people will be employed doing things that we'd consider utterly frivolous today, just as today, people are employed doing things that our ancestors would have considered to be utterly frivolous. I have no idea what they will be, but people them will consider them valuable.
Examples of things our ancestors would have considered frivolous? Computer game design, professional "life coaches" & fitness instructors come to mind, but there are hundreds of such jobs if you think about it. Heck, there was a story on local news about a cat that got a knee-replacement -- there were 10 people involved in the surgery. Can you imagine anybody in the 1950s thinking "Oh, yes, our cat can't walk. Let's get him surgery."?
Re:Oh yes, software (Score:5, Insightful)
You misunderstand the word software. The software that has the most value in the iPhone is iOS, by far, not any app you can find.
So, then, of the 300,000,000 U.S. Americans, how many can find gainful employment writing iOS, and iOS like, software? Far less than 1%, I'd guess.
Comment removed (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Oh yes, software (Score:5, Insightful)
In all fairness, there is a heck of a lot more value in software than in hardware.
You know why? Artificial scarcity. The more America decides to make it's economy around software, the more software patents we're going to need to set up and defend. Don't Copy That Floppy! I've got a patent on 1-click checkout nobody else can do it! Get used that, if you want an economy based on software.
And in other news, this is one of the very very rare piece of wisdom to make it up the front page of slashdot in a long time.
This is a terrible idea. Manufacturing requires tooling and raw materials. And at the end is a physical thing that needs to be sent to wherever it is needed. And that all got sent overseas! All software needs is a computer. Oh, sure, and the knowledge to program it. The USA has an advantage there today, but there's no reason for it to persist. We have a head start over the Chinese, but they're not stupid. They'll have to transition from their cheap labor model to a well-educated labor model to become a software power. That's coming.
Easier than trying to control ideas (which is all software is anyway), would be to abandon the free trade that has moved out all our manufacturing anyway. Objects are easier to control than ideas. Taxes on imports would bring manufacturing back, and would also cut the power of international corporations over our government. It would be a huge change, and not an easy one. I think we'd be healthier for it though.
Jobs are a necessary evil (Score:5, Insightful)
The article assumes more jobs are a good thing. That is a last century concept. How many people actually want to work all day? Most people do it to get the things they really want: food, a decent home, etc. The job itself is a necessary evil, and if they could get the things they wanted without it, they would. We should aim for productivity so insanely high that people don't *have* to work for a living, just like the rich do now. Then the people who actually enjoy doing whatever it takes can take care of the remaining work.
This is the direction society has been heading in since the start of the Industrial Revolution, and obviously still has a way to go to reach that goal. Once places like India and China get developed enough, corporations will inevitably look for cheap labor elsewhere. These days that is mostly Africa, and a few other spots. Once *those* get developed, there will be no cheap labor left, and corporations will inevitably pursue automation. Who will buy their stuff then, when people get put out of work by automation? Either prices will fall due to competition, or governments will tax the remaining workers and businesses enough to pay basic subsistence for everyone else.
The alternate route is "home fabrication". Your robot gardener grows the food, the garage machine shop builds "stuff" based on downloaded plans. You still have to do a little work that can't be automated, but can otherwise goof off. It beats commuting and sitting in an office for 10 hours a day. I hope one of the above futures arrives sooner rather than later.
Re:Again with the visas (Score:4, Insightful)
I work in software in the bay area. I'm local born and yet I can't find a job.
There are two possible reasons for this.
A) You suck at programming.
B) You suck at finding a job.
If you aren't sending out at least 10 resumes a week, you aren't working hard to find a job. Job hunting is a three step process, if you are missing out on one of the steps, you're going to have trouble. The first is finding jobs to apply for. If you're applying for lots of jobs but not getting responses, then your resume is ugly. Keep modifying it until you get responses. Eventually you'll get it. The next step after that is to do well in interviews. It's a skill like any other; if you're doing lots of interviews but not getting hired, then improve your interview skills.
If you're doing all of the above and still not finding a job in the Bay Area, you might need to consider that you suck as a programmer. Improve your skill.
Re:Oh yes, software (Score:5, Insightful)
Oh please. H1-B has its problems to be sure, but you invalidate your entire argument when you claim that they make $30k; all the research shows H1-Bs usually cost about as much as Citizens do. The initial cost is actually more because of all the sponsorship fees and such, and because there's a lot of openings for these jobs (if there weren't, they wouldn't be coming here). Over time they probably end up getting somewhat less though, since they don't have the ability to change jobs quite as easily at citizens, and that part of the program absolutely should be changed.
Don't forget that a ton of foreign workers got their degrees right here in our own overpriced universities. Half the people in my EE classes in the 90s were foreigners, and that was undergrad; at the graduate level, almost all of them were foreigners.