Why the Sharing Economy Is About Desperation, Not Trust 331
An anonymous reader writes "Wired recently ran a cover story about the sharing economy — shorthand for the rise of peer-to-peer rental services like Lyft and Airbnb — which they call a cultural and economic breakthrough. They say it has ushered in a 'new era of Internet-enabled intimacy.' An article at New York Magazine has another theory: that it arose because of the weakness in the real economy. Quoting: 'A huge precondition for the sharing economy has been a depressed labor market, in which lots of people are trying to fill holes in their income by monetizing their stuff and their labor in creative ways. In many cases, people join the sharing economy because they've recently lost a full-time job and are piecing together income from several part-time gigs to replace it. In a few cases, it's because the pricing structure of the sharing economy made their old jobs less profitable. (Like full-time taxi drivers who have switched to Lyft or Uber.) In almost every case, what compels people to open up their homes and cars to complete strangers is money, not trust.'"
tl;dr (Score:4, Insightful)
tl;dr Marx was right that an over-production would leave the majority in poverty, and the only economically sustainable solution is sharing. It's not "desperation", but an inevitable and rational necessity.
Re:tl;dr (Score:5, Insightful)
Marx talked of productivity increases, but what Marx didn't live to see was how dramatically productivity would actually increase over the twentieth century, to the point where so many paid workers would simply be laid off. About the wealth gap, he turned out to be more right than he could have ever foreseen.
"Necessity is the mother of invention" (Score:5, Insightful)
The New Intimacy is new not because humans are different, but because more are more available than ever before. #internet
Economic "realists" are the children who built the world variously self-destructing.
Re:"Necessity is the mother of invention" (Score:4, Interesting)
...but I don't think that the only necessities are economic (...as both dyed-thru Marxists and Neocons seem to? I get that this is not you). While it's true the trigger for my involvement with "sharing"--from free-as-in-beer file-sharing to using Airbnb to potlucks to etc. etc.--may sometimes be economic, "because I can't afford to otherwise" doesn't actually make it in the top three of my reasons, now very much engaged with "sharing," for continuing in it.
The New Intimacy is new not because humans are different, but because more are more available than ever before.
Perceive yourself being modded up 'Insightful'.
It is a new economic paradigm that currently evolves. Until recently, economics was based on the distribution of scare resources. And Marx didn't live to see this new aspect. Therefore, despite of his usefulness of his work in our days, his insights need to be accompanied by the only-evolving paradigm of managing an oversupply.
Combine this with the concept of the necessity of growth, and we all run into troubled times. Because the necessity of growth is by mathematical definition not linear but exponential. Compound interest, in case you don't understand the pure term.
Overall, an exponential growth is needed [so teach us the prevailing economic theories], while on the other hand an oversupply with decreasing prices [due to great leaps in productivity] kind of drowns us in mountains of consumables.
Growth is not necessity (Score:5, Insightful)
Why is an growth necessary? To sustain our current economic models perhaps, but they are themselves a very recent anomaly dating back to somewhere around the beginning of the industrial revolution and the liberation of productivity from the number of laborers available. As you point out, all sustained growth is exponential, and that is unsustainable in a finite environment. And we're already bumping up against the limits of our global ecosystem so it must end relatively soon.
No matter what the economists want to believe, sustainable growth is an oxymoron and we're going to be forced to return to an economic model which presumes the entirety of production remains relatively stable. Individual businesses may still grow, but only at the expense of other businesses (competitors and/or those rendered obsolete) But there's no particular reason they need to grow at all. Even today there are plenty of small businesses that don't subscribe to the "grow or die" philosophy, and have instead simply grown until they reach a comfortable, sustainable size and then remain there indefinitely. And that's absolutely normal. In days gone past a master blacksmith could only grow his business to the limits of his own productivity - he might take on an apprentice or two to help out with the easier stuff, but it was his own skill at the forge that drove business.
Re:Growth is not necessity (Score:5, Interesting)
The modern shareholder item where a company must grow no matter what... and if a company is well established, but not gaining new market, it is considered a hot potato and has to be dropped... This is a self-destructive philosophy seems to be fairly recent.
I think part of the reason why Dell went private is exactly this. The desktop/server/workstation market is not growing by leaps and bounds. Is it still lucrative? By far. Companies amortize their computers every 3-5 years on taxes, Moore's law allows more functionality in the same server and workstation space, and new real estate to expand server rooms is a lot more expensive than replacing existing servers for more bang/cubic centimeter. However, is it growing by leaps and bounds? Not really.
Another big issue is that companies that are stable end up getting bought out by others that have the "growth focus". This means that a product made by a firm for 20 years and is tried and true gets replaced by something cheap and shoddy because there is no stake in that one little niche anymore, so the larger firm can cut corners there without risking the stock value all around.
I've seen this happen fairly often in the RV industry. A small firm that has some useful widget gets bought out by a larger, "growing" company, and next thing you know, the well-made, made in USA item that was made to last a lifetime now is made overseas [1] out of a cheaper metal and manufacturing process... or is turned to craptastic plastic fresh out of an injection mold. Of course, the price doesn't go down. Yes, the larger company expanded and seized a narrow market. However, other than that one company, nobody else is benefiting from this.
As described above, exponential growth isn't sustainable. What does a firm do when they reach market saturation? Get bought up by a bigger firm that is "growing"? The result of this are a few companies owning a lot of market niches.
Finally, when a recession hits, the focus on growth can turn so-so times into a death spiral. A company may not be expanding in a sour economy... but it can be holding its own. However, with the growth mentality, no new market additions can push stock values down, causing that company to collapse. The car industry comes to mind here, because the first thing that happens in a recession is that people stop buying new cars, so automakers get hit hard in the stock market when this happens.
[1]: I don't want to bash China on this one. Generally, they try to make stuff to spec, and if a company specs "cheap junk", they will deliver "cheap junk". If a company specs high quality and foots the bill for the better materials/fit/finish/manufacturing processes, it will come off the ship that way.
Re:Growth is not necessity (Score:4, Insightful)
Why is an growth necessary?
Because it is essential to making money out of NOTHING. Growth is the mechanism letting people "work with their money", people that never work, just invest and reap the benefits.
Of course most of same people that rely on growth will be as pleased with recession. They can speculate with their money as long as there is instability, there is always opportunity to extract money from the working class.
If you work with your hands/brain you dont need growth to sustain your lifestyle, you need stability. They (startup valley types) even call it a Lifestyle Business http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L... [wikipedia.org] and treat it like something lesser/to be ashamed of.
Re: (Score:3, Informative)
Farming has been automated. Construction is being automated. Machine work has been automated for a long time, except for specialty one-of stuff - when's the last time you had something custom made at the local machine shop? And even the one-of stuff is being largely automated by CNC and other rapid-prototyping technologies.
Plumbing, yeah, that's still mostly done by hand, as is electrical work. Maintenance of existing products (houses in this case) is still mostly beyond automation capabilities, but how
Re:Old people can't do physical labor (Score:5, Interesting)
In terms of farming, absolutely. By optimizing away the common man's ability to be self-sufficient we've fundamentally altered the nature of the "game".
As for military spending, sure we need a certain level to keep the barbarians from our gates. Though outspending the next 20+ nations combined is probably overkill. But that's getting off topic.
As for taxes, there's lots of other ways taxes can be good for everyone. Roads for example. Dirt ruts can only carry you so far, and toll roads are unlikely to be cost effective. Free paved roads allow the farmer to get his produce to market in a timely fashion instead of having 80% of it rot along the way. Other infrastructure can operate similarly - so long as a 10% increase in taxes provides for infrastructure that increases your profitability by 20% almost everyone wins. Similarly with cleanup and policing (which could both be be conceived of as defense against the carelessness or maliciousness of your neighbors). Then there's things like medicine and eduction, which done wisely can be immensely profitable for all involved when socialized at a basic level. The costs of basic services are minimal when spread across the population, and most everyone benefits from both the direct education and the resulting facilitation of the poor-but-brilliant child being able to get a good start towards becoming an engine of societal advancement. Life-extension medicine is it's own thing, there's unlikely to be any great benefit to society from keeping an octogenarian or permanent invalid alive for an extra cuple couple decades, though one could debate as to whether the occasional Steven Hawking is worth the cost. Fixing broken bones and curing infectious diseases though - that's cheap, and everyone benefits, even if they never personally have cause to partake, since it's increasing the percentage of able-bodied individuals in your society (= decreasing freeloaders), and helping to avoid plagues.
Re: Old people can't do physical labor (Score:4, Insightful)
You lost me when you said government run programs ate inwffecient compared to private enterprise. While that is true in some cases that isn't always true. Medicare for example is 10 times more efficient dollar for dollar to private insurance. Most private insurance spends 20% ( now it used to be higher) on adminstration. Medicare is 2-3%.
Just remember when the big three auto makers went looking for a bailout they flew to Washington in their corporate jets. If they were truely efficient they wouldn't need a politician to point out the stupidly obvious waste of funds. How inefficient does a private enterprise have to be if a politician notices their failures.
Once you get to be a big business efficieny goes out the door. Governments are just big business with mediocore oversight However more people can see the books. If you really looked at a large businesses books you wouldn't say that private business is more efficient. The rest of your post rambles on from that misconception.
Re:tl;dr (Score:5, Insightful)
Oh please, the Industrial Revolution was "the" killer for skilled artisans and craftsmen who were often replaced by unskilled labor operating machinery which incorporated the skill. Being self-employed and providing services directly became much harder, you had to be a worker at a factory because they owned the machinery and reaped the profits. Probably the worst time to be a worker was in the late 1800s and early 1900s when Taylorism was at its peak and it was all about how many seconds operation X took at the assembly line and it was all about dumb replaceable workers you could drag in from the street at subsistence wages.
It never really changed until Ford doubled the worker's wages in 1914 and from there was the golden age of the "skilled" worker, concepts like Kanban/Lean Manufacturing in the 1950s also focused on small cells of skilled workers providing much higher flexibility and lower defect rates than the big, long assembly lines. Then started a new cycle where the skill those workers had were incorporated into robotics, again forcing us to develop a new set of meta-skills because it can crank out parts with near perfect precision 24x7 and it was back to huge production lines. We still needed a lot of monitoring and repair though, because the first robots were rather dumb and did things rather mindlessly. Now those skills are being incorporated into electronics, and we're again looking for new meta skills. It all comes full circle again and again.
Oh please, Indeed. (Score:5, Insightful)
Then started a new cycle where the skill those workers had were incorporated into robotics, again forcing us to develop a new set of meta-skills because it can crank out parts with near perfect precision 24x7 and it was back to huge production lines.
That plant the laid off its workers only needs a handful of folks to maintain the robots. It's NOT a one to one transition. It's at least a 10 to 1 DOWNSIZING.
Now those skills are being incorporated into electronics, and we're again looking for new meta skills. It all comes full circle again and again.
Everytime the "circle" goes around LESS labor is needed.
Just where are those workers going to go because other industries are not absorbing them - the employment numbers proves it.
Look at today's big comanies - like Amazon. They have about 30,000 employees.
A couple of decades ago, a company that size would have had a million people of ALL skill levels working there. But automation has made things much more efficient. Cheaper for the rest of us, sure. But what to do with all the displaced workers? Retrain? For what?
All the new big companies only need a fraction of employees needed before.
EVERY industry is doing this. There is no indsutry that is increasing their workforce - none. Even medical is becoming more efficient and (ever so slowly) automating on the lower levels. And there's other changes too.
And that is what get's me about the fetish of policy makers who want manufacturing to come back to the US: it'll be done by robots.
In the 19th century, Western society went from on labor intensive economy (Agriculture) to another (Manufacturing). So, there was opportunity for transistion.
But today, new industries are going straight to automation (or off-shoring), old industries are doing the same, and there's a ever decreasing pool of jobs for people - and as a result, wages are declining in real terms.
Just making straight comparisons with the past and today and strugging off social and economic changes that is hurting the average guy is the wrong analysis and the numbers prove it.
Re:Oh please, Indeed. (Score:5, Insightful)
It's not zero sum. After the layoff, the 9 other workers are freed to make something else. At the founding of the nation, something like 80% of the workforce worked in agriculture. Over time, mechanization and improved techniques have lead to the present day fraction of something like 2%. The 78% of the workforce didn't starve to death, they went and did other, more interesting things, and now we have airplanes, computers, movies...
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We are reaching a state in our society where there simply is not enough work for everyone to maint
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The iron law of economics -- supply and demand -- says that ain't going to happen. You can push and prod and legislate but supply and demand will always bite you in the ass one way or another.
Re:Oh please, Indeed. (Score:4, Informative)
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There are a finite amount of houses in the world, and a greater number of people who want a house.
Scarcity is the economic concept that there is insufficient productive resources to meet all human wants and needs. I think we agree on that. I think your contention here is the "want" rather than the "need".
Of course there is a finite number of houses in the world. There is a finite amount of eveything. However, according to the Cenus Bureau, as of Q4 of 2013, the rental unit vacancy rate was 8.2% and more than 300,000 homes are foreclosed and unoccupied according to RealtyTrac. That's 8.2% of rent
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It's not zero sum. After the layoff, the 9 other workers are freed to make something else.
Free? Free to be unemployed, desperately searching for anything that pays any sort of wage at all while half the politicians in the country call them leeches? There is no freedom in a layoff.
Oh and don't forget that year after year fewer people are recoded as being part of the working population. That number was once frighteningly near near 100% (the days of child labor), now it is below 60%. Add in the unemployed numbers and barely half of the population has a way to support themselves. Little does the oth
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And yet I see signs everyday about positions open. They generally don't pay as good as the jobs these people were used to but the reality is it may be neccessary for them to work their way back up in another field.
Re:Oh please, Indeed. (Score:4, Insightful)
So where should all these people displaced by automation work instead? Where's the new labor markets?
The problem is we're in the midst of laying off 90% of the workforce thanks to automation, and we have no new industries for those unskilled laborers to move into. Yes, they've been freed to do other things, but there's no other things for them to do. Most people simply are not suited to becoming a robotics maintenance technician, movie producer, or banker. And even if they were there still wouldn't be enough jobs available. We only need so much manufacturing potential to supply all our desires, and if one person can maintain the robots needed to produce everything wanted by 100 people then you've got 99 people in a hundred that can't be involved in manufacturing. Ditto in fast food production, warehouse workers, barbers, etc, etc,etc. which are all beginning to be automated. Even in movie production CG characters are beginning to become more commonplace, which will eventually put most actors out on the street. And banking, where expert systems can outperform all but the most skilled, and at a far faster pace.
If 10% of the population can provide for everything wanted by everyone, then our current economic model has a major problem, because everyone else needs a way to acquire the funds to purchase the things. And it the 10% are the only ones making an income from widely desired goods, then they are the only source of income for the rest, and you've got 9 people trying to supply enough bonus luxury goods to each productive member to keep food in their own bellies/ We could increase leisure hours to reduce the problem, but even if the average work week were only ten hours you've still only increased the employment rolls to 40%. The problem doesn't even go away with population reduction. Let the 60% starve to death, and all you've succeeded in doing is reducing demand by 60%, and thus reduced the size of the production lines and need for maintenance technicians, etc. by 60%, and you're right back where you started with 60% unemployment.
Now, take the survival issue away through some sort of social safety net / social dividend and you may foster an explosion in creativity, but there's a reason for the starving artist stereotype - creative work is rarely appreciated in it's own time, and most artists and inventors have always needed to have some other kind of work to pay the bills. If there is no other work, then they need to be given at least enough to survive comfortably to free them to be creative.
Re: (Score:2)
Both the AC parent and its parent are arguing tangential points as if they are opposite.
Now those skills are being incorporated into electronics, and we're again looking for new meta skills. It all comes full circle again and again.
Everytime the "circle" goes around LESS labor is needed.
Just where are those workers going to go because other industries are not absorbing them - the employment numbers proves it.
Look at today's big comanies - like Amazon. They have about 30,000 employees.
AC's parent is not arguing that less labor is NOT needed.
AC's parent is arguing that what the OP said about Marx not foreseeing the productivity increases in the 20th century is... well... pointless.
Because the ACTUAL increase in productivity which caused "so many paid workers would simply be laid off" actually already happened in the 18th and the 19th century - which served Marx as both spark and the fuel for his ideas.
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You will, when they turn up at your doorstep screaming for your blood because you're a have.
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As Richard Wolff [rdwolff.com] often points out in his lectures, [youtube.com] the USA had a constant labor shortage from the 1820s up to the 1970s. The shortage ended in part due to automation, and also because of women's liberation bringing millions more people into the workforce. For that entire period, American workers enjoyed steadily rising wages, but wages have flatlined ever since, despite continually rising productivity.
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To make a long story short, he did in one day what a team of 3 or 4 took a week to do back in the 90s. That's a 75% reduction of workers needed for software development right there. Automation is affecting all workers at all levels; well not the management guys, of course.
It's worse than that. It's a 98% reduction in total work paid for.
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America's trade deficit is over $40 billion per month. That is the excess of what we consume over what we produce. In light of that, it is pretty silly to be talking about "over-production".
Re:tl;dr (Score:4, Insightful)
Over-production has just been globalized - to China.
There are over a billion people living on a dollar a day. Claiming that we have "over production" at the global level is absurd.
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There are over a billion people living on a dollar a day. Claiming that we have "over production" at the global level is absurd.
To be fair, this is just an artifact of a wacky worldwide monetary system. $1 a day doesn't sound like much, but many people are able to live on it. In parts of the world however, this would be impossible even if you took income taxes out of the picture.
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ther e is nothing wacky in it. The difference stems from the local tech level/productivity. Long story short you have it baked in the price of everything, including wages.
That also means that even exact same job with exact same productivity (eg artists) can be paid differently.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B... [wikipedia.org]
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Workers often are not laid off due to actual increase in productivity. They are laid off because a system is rigged to shift to cheaper jobs elsewhere. Take Mexico as an example. Before Mexico was allowed to sign NAFTA they had to institute "land reform" which resulted in 1/3 of rural agricultural workers being made jobless. This surplus labor then ended up in the border towns working for worse wages in horrible environmental conditions and the factories in this region. Since the laor was so cheap this star
Re:tl;dr (Score:4, Insightful)
The problem is not over-production, it is that for some odd reason we see production as the goal of economy. Problem is, the goal is not production, it's selling.
The goal is cheaper, cheaper, CHEAPER! We have to produce cheaper. Cheaper than the competitor, and even if there is no competitor, we have to produce cheaper. Not to sell it cheaper, as the market theory would demand, but to increase the profit margin. But hell, even if we WERE selling it cheaper, it would not make a difference. Because whether you sell something for 100 or 50 does not matter if the prospective buyer has NOTHING.
And that's the problem of our economy today. We're not lacking production. Far from it. There is by no means a shortage of anything. Anything but money on the consumer side, that is. We cannot SELL. Because there simply is nobody to BUY. Not that people wouldn't want our crap, if this whole sharing "culture" shows us anything then that there is a damn lot of want. But to turn want into need, money is needed.
The reason for the economic growth from after WW2 to the 80s was simply that people earned pretty well. Even and especially "unskilled" labor was relatively well paid and people could afford to spend. People even continued to spend after they could not really afford it anymore 'cause their wages didn't keep up with inflation. They borrowed, refinanced, maxed out credit cards... the economy only noticed that things go wrong after that, too, hit the limit.
And now we're in the shit creek we're in, because even if we started to pay people handsomely, it would take years to even notice since they now first of all would have to pay back their debt. You'd have to recover two decades of overspending, most likely with at least two decades of overearning. And it's very, very unlikely that anyone would want to make that "investment" just to get something as unimportant as the economy back on track.
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
The debt in "real money" can also fuel the sharing economy. When you have a negative amount of "government credit units", but can get into a sharing community that issues it's own "sharing credit units" so you can start of with a clean slate there. And perhaps even get more return value out of it than with the "official economy" Which might be the only way left to influence the economical direction.
Since elections don't seem to work any more to change the political direction, the only working answer to "we
Re:tl;dr (Score:5, Insightful)
Right now, the big scare is that we're running into a deflation. No, really. DEflation. Not INflation. Now, considering how bad inflation is (allegedly), deflation must be good, right? Wrong! It's even more feared than inflation.
Inflation only means that your money gets less valuable. That can be remedied: Simply stop printing money and jack up interest rates. Of course, that's easier said than done, but at least you can in theory do something against it. Deflation is not so easily cured.
The core problem is that inflation can actually be beneficial for an economy, since it tempts to consumption. If your money is worth less tomorrow than it is today, you better spend it now rather than later. With inflation, people free money into tangible goods, even if they're perishable and not lasting, because even as perishables they're more lasting than money. Deflation causes the opposite. The longer you hold money, the better for you since tomorrow it's going to buy more than it does today.
I don't think it needs too much of an explanation why this is poison to any economy.
Now, there are quite a few possible causes for deflation, and a few regulatory instruments that can cure it. In our case, though, there would not be such an instrument. If we really reach the deflation level, we're fucked for good. Game over.
One possible reason for Deflation is a shortage of money, plain and simple. If there's a shortage of something, it gets more valuable. The easy solution to this is running the printing press. Now, we've tried that and it only made matters worse, because now we have some kind of inflation without eliminating the looming deflation. Mostly because there was no shortage of money.
Another reason is that the goods available are simply not attractive and people rather hold onto their money than buying what's offered. The cynic in me would say that's dead on, but no. That was the case in the former east bloc occasionally (which actually had a rather curious mix of insane shortages and buttloads of crap nobody wanted), and their money experienced an odd "official" deflation with a rampart "black market" inflation. Not really the case here now either, people would buy.
The reason for this deflation is actually a shortage of money, but a shortage of money per person. Money is available, but it is pooled. Which is great for investment, but very bad for consumption.
And we really have NO shortage of investment money. People would love to invest. If you needed any proof of this, the issue of Greek bonds that sold like hotcakes (despite Greece's credit history and its near bankruptcy) just because of the guarantees the EU gave for them is an indicator. They offered just over 5% interest and were fiercely contested. There is plenty of investment money sitting around, desperately looking for an investment opportunity.
What is missing, and what makes this looming deflation so dangerous, is the lack of consumption money. Deflation is always an indicator of low money velocity. Now, the reason is this time not that people cling to their money and that they don't want to spend it, the reason is simply that they have NO money to spend. Worse, they are in debt. And just like savings, debt also increases with deflation, which would make the whole shit even worse since climbing out of the hole gets more and more difficult.
What makes this situation so very dangerous is that governments cannot really remedy it. There is very, very little a government could do to regulate it. Their main regulation instruments for inflation, i.e. money printing press and interest rate, fizzle in such an environment. Running the printing press still requires some means to distribute that money, and there is very little you could do that makes that money end up in the hands of people who could spend it and thus cure the demand side problem. People would not, could not, spend it. They have a debt to take care of. That money you print would instantly be guzzled away in those debt holes people are in a
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There is no solution to this situation that I could think of. IMO, we're fucked. Game over, pack your stuff, start growing some veggies in your back yard and hope that you survive the impending fallout.
I wouldn't be that negative, though.
While in the currently fashionable economic theories a proper countermeasure is lacking, there is no good reason to preclude its existence. Once we are screwed, we will refocus our interests and research on the topic; leaving marketing research behind, because it won't help us any longer.
What troubles me more, is the need of the individual to participate, to understand, to react and eventually to lower their expectations on impending richness.
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Actually, what really would be needed is an acceptance amongst the "rich" that the "working poor" need more money, and that it's them who have to give it. And that in turn will not happen, because whoever pays is at a disadvantage to everyone who does not. And before you rejoice, when I talk about the "rich" having to foot the bill, I'm not (only) talking about the proverbial 1%. If you can sit here and read that, if you have leisure time to do that, chances are that you'll be among those that get to pay.
I
Re:tl;dr (Score:5, Insightful)
There is plenty of investment money sitting around, desperately looking for an investment opportunity.
Almost. It's pathetically waiting for an investment opportunity, instead of creating one. Granted, creating one is made ridiculously difficult in this country.
What makes this situation so very dangerous is that governments cannot really remedy it.
Sure they can. They can unfuck taxation such that it comes from the pockets of those with money, and then they can spend the money on public works, raising employment and actually improving infrastructure, making it easier to make money. Done and done. Problem is, they're not going to do either of those things unless forced, let alone both.
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Sure they can. They can unfuck taxation such that it comes from the pockets of those with money, and then they can spend the money on public works, raising employment and actually improving infrastructure, making it easier to make money. Done and done. Problem is, they're not going to do either of those things unless forced, let alone both.
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Distributing money to poor people is easy if that is all you want to do. Just change the tax code, and offer credits to anybody making under $100k/yr, covering it with a 50% tax on wealth over some figure. Suddenly sitting on huge piles of money doesn't seem so attractive.
Or as you suggest spend it on infrastructure, which makes hiring locally more attractive and benefits the public besides.
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Creating an investment opportunity it is insane in this economy. To make an investment viable, I'd have to produce something that I can SELL. The fact that this is near impossible today is the whole problem we're sitting on: How should anyone create a business if there's nobody to SELL to?
Something akin to the "new deal" would actually work out, but not in the US of today. Government as employer in anything but administration is anathema to the creed we all bow to. Unless we finally manage to shed that fant
Re:tl;dr (Score:5, Interesting)
We've given the power of the printing press to bank managers. They lend money that doesn't exist through the magic of double entry book keeping. We spend it to keep the economy going. And then we have to pay it back with interest. Except we aren't paying it back, we keep borrowing more.
During the 2007-2010 crisis, I was worried about deflation. It should have been worse than the aftermath of the 1929 crash. But it didn't quite happen. This time around it wasn't just businesses leveraged up to their eyeballs. When a business has to find cash to pay back their loans, they can slash prices on inventory, sell what they've got without ordering more and cut staff. All of this leads to a massive reduction in income, without managing to reduce debts much at all. In fact, since incomes fell so drastically, attempting to pay off debts caused them to rise.
While all those things did happen, this time around it was households holding a significant fraction of the debt. What is an individual going to do? Stop eating? Stop needing a roof over their heads?
Plus this time, we've managed to get everyone borrowing again. So the economy is back on track and heading upwards. We've recovered better than they did in the early 1930's. Here in Australia we managed to avoid a technical recession completely. Our PM at the time did everything he could to get spending money into the hands of every day people. He didn't give a cent directly to the banks, he didn't need to.
But we're not out of the woods, not by a long shot. Our mountain of debt is still there. On the average day in the 1930's the stock market was climbing, things were getting better. But then there was another crash. And the long term trend was still downwards. It was only with the outbreak of war and a massive spending spree on the part of the US gov, that debts finally reduced to sane levels.
History doesn't repeat exactly, but it certainly does rhyme. We're going to hit another crisis. The total debt level of the economy is too high for it to be otherwise. Some group of people out there are holding onto a lot of debt and are technically insolvent. At some point their creditors are going to notice and the whole stack of cards is going to tumble again. Who's it going to be? No idea.
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Deflation is no poison, you are a tool of government propaganda, brainwashed to the core, completely without any sense or understanding. Deflation was the reality of 19th century USA economy, the period of time, when the standard of living of an average American has gone up by orders of magnitude faster than at any point in time. In fact during the 'scary deflationary' period the standard of living for Americans has gone up, but during the government induced inflation the standard of living was and is fal
Re:Deflation (Score:2)
Deflation is no poison, you are a tool of government propaganda, brainwashed to the core, completely without any sense or understanding. Deflation was the reality of 19th century USA economy, the period of time, when the standard of living of an average American has gone up by orders of magnitude faster than at any point in time. In fact during the 'scary deflationary' period the standard of living for Americans has gone up, but during the government induced inflation the standard of living was and is falling.
You are absolutely correct, but your opinion seems very unpopular here on /.
Deflation is only bad for those with money, and especially for entities like the Federal Reserve and the stock markets, that rely on ever-decreasing value of the dollar to demonstrate an ever-increasing value of assets by comparison. It's bad for the US Federal government, too, that relies on the sale of bonds to finance its deficit spending, and of course inflation produces increasing tax revenue, necessary for the increasing budg
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I was about to write a reply, but what for? You've obviously made up your mind and somehow I feel my time is too valuable to waste it at idiots who can't refute statements but instead go down the "It's how I say it is because you're an idiot" ad-hominem road.
Sorry, but that's no discussion I want to be part of. Good bye.
Re: tl;dr (Score:4)
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You will neither get political nor popular support for such a suggestion. It would probably work out, but getting it done would be political suicide.
Re:tl;dr (Score:5, Insightful)
Money, in the hands of people who will actually spend it, is the cure. We have seen examples in the past where the government just gives out an extra $200 to everyone filing a tax return. I got that money and spent it. So did a lot of people, and it was credited for creating noticable relief in the economy. Give me $40,000 to forgive all my school debts and I'll have an extra $500 a month to do something with. Sure I'll save some of it, but not all of it. I am sure the vast majority of other people would do the same. Hell I might even be able to save enough for a down payment on a house.
Inflation and Deflation aren't opposites. (Score:3)
Right now, the big scare is that we're running into a deflation. No, really. DEflation. Not INflation. Now, considering how bad inflation is (allegedly), deflation must be good, right? Wrong! It's even more feared than inflation.
Inflation and deflation are orthogonal to each other. Inflation is a devaluation/flat tax on money while deflation is a devaluation of goods & services that can be bought with money. You can have both at the same time, they are not opposites, but two entirely seperate matrixes w
Re:tl;dr (Score:4, Insightful)
I don't agree that there are no tools a government could employ here. A government could create a tax bracket of 70% (or some other arbitratily high number) and make the bracket begin at a number high enough that only those pooling money would be effected(including corps). The government could then spend that money on public infrastructure, employing people in the process. Think power plants, government rollout of highspeed fiber, high speed trains, or hell if you get enough money how about a space elevator?
A government, such as the US govt, could prevent companies by sending all their money oversees by penalizing companies which don't base themselves in the US. A govt could institute a tax on assets upon death. A government could institute tax brackets which target your existing wealth as well as income. A government could redefine corporations in such a way that it is no longer possible for the insane abuses they perpetrate to continue.
I am not saying any of this is easy. However, we aren't trying any of it, and all of it has the potential to help (if not solve) the problem. I also fully realize why we aren't trying any of it: All of it affects the wealthy, and the USA is an oligarchy.
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All that stuff on the shelves in your supermarket will be gone by the end of the week, you just never see it because it's replenished exactly fast enough to keep the shelves fully stocked.
This is wrong. A lot of it is thrown away or donated to food pantries. The model for keeping customers from going to the next door competitor is to never ever let the customer be unable to get something because it's out of stock.
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I'm tired of this rhetoric of the occupy types who make a stink about being poor just because the goalpost for "poor" keeps moving higher and higher on some spreadsheet, meanwhile they ask for "fixes" that will just end up making things worse.
I love most of your post, but I have a partial disagreement in this last part. People want to feel useful while getting treated fairly. Two things required for this is having a job and being fairly paid. Even if we had a society where no one had to work, people would not be happy unless they were able to do something that made themselves feel "useful".
These "occupy" people may still be better off than people from the past, but they they are still having a basic human need denied, and that's a fair system
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Re:tl;dr (Score:5, Insightful)
The only economically sustainable solution is to have a labor force that matches labor requirements. What Marx didn't foresee was the tremendous medical advances the world has seen in the past 100 years, allowing unsustainable population growth while the need to unskilled labor declines. No amount of sharing, unionization, or wealth transfer will help when there are billions of people with no demand for their labor.
Don't let ideology blind you. People don't need jobs.
People need food, shelter, medical care, and several other things. Jobs is one of the ways you can get those.
If there _are_ enough resources for everybody, probably we can come up with way to distribute them effectively, even one that doesn't need busywork. It's not an easy problem, but seems solvable.
Re:tl;dr (Score:4, Insightful)
Jobs are just as much of a requirement as food and shelter.
The job is what keeps a person from devolving into a total animal. More intelligent notions of human need actually account for stuff beyond where your next meal is coming from.
I don't think anybody is advocating that people should just sit and watch TV all day. Maybe if you gave them disposable income they'd find hobbies, or take up art or whatever. Organize community programs to give people things to do.
You don't need to chain somebody to a cash register for $7/hr under the threat of starvation to keep their mind nimble.
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We should pay the unemployed to enroll in colleges and universities (not merely subsidize the costs of education), since higher levels of education would ultimately benefit society as a whole.
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As an afterthought, what if being a student paid just as well as the average white-collar job? Studying diligently is at least as taxing as most full-time jobs.
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Ah yes, just like Newton, that idle wealthy person. Given the opportunity, he just sat under apple trees and watched the world...
Almost right.
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Well when you consider countries such as Russia, communism was actually quite a success. Even with psychopathic leadership and having to win WWII they still managed to go from feudal to space faring in only half a century. Generally the average person was a lot better off under communism then being peasants owned by the aristocracy. Politically things were the shits before and after communism and now with capitalism things are still the shits for the average Russian.
Re:tl;dr (Score:4, Insightful)
And Smith was right in that there is no such thing as "overproduction." Produce more of a valued good, and the market reacts by lowering the price, opening up more uses for the good. It's a story not just as old as human trade, but as old as life in Earth. When early plants feasted on the carbon dioxide that filled our atmosphere and produced oxygen, a "market" came into being for species that could consume oxygen.
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When early plants feasted on CO2 and produced oxygen it caused the biggest mass extinction the world ever experienced. Sure once all the species that were poisoned by oxygen died out it left openings for new species but from the viewpoint of the wiped out it wasn't exactly an improvement.
Re:tl;dr (Score:4, Insightful)
over production?
Over production of what? I swear, people say things without actually engaging their brains. They just repeat things like walking tape recorders or human/parrot hybrids.
The economic downturn was largely a result of corruption in our banking and political system that lead to the rapid issuing of credit for things people couldn't really afford especially to people that really shouldn't be in the market. This lead to a price inflation which caused people that normally wouldn't have a hard time affording things to go into greater debt simply to keep up. And when the whole thing collapsed, the value of all the homes went down but the debt stayed right where it was... this caused a contraction of spending... etc etc etc.
Nothing what so ever to do with over production unless you mean an over production of morons and corrupt assholes.
Marx doubtless said a lot of things that made sense... but economics is more complicated then any one man and the scope of human history is not going to be summed up by das capital.
Sharing is common outside the west (Score:5, Informative)
In many countries in the world it's quite common for people to share stuff like taxi services and rooms and has been for decades. In many of these places the crime rate is far higher than in the United States. The huge contrast between the amount of distrust people seem to have for each other in America and the actual rate of crime (which is quite low and has been decreasing for decades) is pretty astounding.
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Re:Sharing is common outside the west (Score:5, Interesting)
Anecdotally, I've had a number of friends who had to go this route with AirBNB. All of them love the money, none of them love the strangers in their apartments. (Though it isn't all bad - they're generally nice people.)
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Sharing is and even more was also very common in the West (from a European point of view). However, that deteriorated over the past decades (starting in the 1970ies). Now we at an all time low. And as wealth is generally decreasing,sharing start to become interesting again. Furthermore, capitalism is no longer that popular.
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Interesting, in that "sharing" your apartment (for instance) for a weekend for a fee IS capitalism - your capital (that apartment/house/whatever) making you money.
Re:Sharing is common outside the west (Score:5, Insightful)
I know this is crazy, but you could share your apartment with one for free. And hope to get offered the same when visiting some place. This is called altruism and happened very often in the "distant" past.
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First, the unpopularity is not evenly distributed in all classes of society. Second, a lot of people defend capitalism, because they mistake it for market economy. Third, a large person think capitalism is freedom and any change is dictatorship, like Russia. They confuse economic system and political system. Communism and democracy could be combined (in theory), where all goods belong to everyone. And we all decide over its use. I personally doubt that such concept would work. Other concepts have worked in
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They confuse economic system and political system. Communism and democracy could be combined (in theory)
This would be the only true form of democracy. As the US Constitution says 'for the people, by the people' (or is it the other way around) any other form leads to dictatorship.
I personally doubt that such concept would work.
That is how social democratic countries have been functioning in western Europe, until politicians started to see Euro signs and handed over their national sovereignty to Brussels.
In the Netherlands, In the 70's, all education, including tertiary, were free (as in free beer). Up until 1999, I paid about $15/month (which was automatica
Maybe it is neither (Score:2, Interesting)
It may well be that 'sharing economy' is just a manifestation of a deeper problem, the inability of the drivers of development in the past century -- capitalism and democracy -- to cope with the problems the modern world is facing.
The world needs a new political and economic systems that can tackle the problems we're facing, and tackle them efficiently and in a way that makes sense both locally and globally. It is most likely that these will evolve out of what we already have with the experience and frustr
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It may well be that 'sharing economy' is just a manifestation of a deeper problem, the inability of the drivers of development in the past century -- capitalism and democracy -- to cope with the problems the modern world is facing.
They're coping just fine, they're just not sharing. They'd rather put it in offshore taxshelters.
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What we're witness to in the present is not coping, it is a transition. Productivity has increased massively, to the point where employers can lay off huge chunks of their work force and still churn out the same amount of widgets. This works while other employers have still not done so, thereby ensuring that a majority of the work force is still employed.
But what happens when all of industry arrives at the ~100% automation point, the point where all the employees left are the ones with a CxO title? Laying o
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Smart .01%'ers are already realizing it, they can see what's coming. I even once agrressively overheard some Albertan oil zillionaires talking about what a great idea mincome is for preventing unrest.
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This is just my theory, but I believe the sudden relaxation of marijuana laws globally is a result of the .01%'ers starting to get worried. The rabble are rousing, we must unleash the opiates for the masses!
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The rabble are rousing, we must unleash the opiates for the masses!
They aren't very smart if they think marijuana contains opiates.
I agree. (Score:2, Insightful)
Things are going to have to get very bad for change though. The forces for the status quo are way too strong and powerful.
Even I, a peon getting screwed over by the system, is a bit scared of it - eliminate democracy? Whoah!
Anyway, when things change too radically, extrememly bad things happen - like Hitler, Stalin, Castro, ...
Capitalism works fine within the norrow confines of economic activity and with plenty government checks. Nineteenth century USA business history is a great example of Laissez-Faire c
Supply and Demand and Opportunity (Score:2)
Sure, there is obviously a supply and demand effect when the economy no longer supports six figure college loan repayments. But to say that is the "cause" ignores that it was impossible to do 20 years ago. Advertising was at one point a huge barrier to entry for bed and breakfast type industries, people had to be aware of your product and had to trust someone with no brand awareness. Now it's simply easy to advertise your couch, ability, etc., and easy to set up a rating system.
As evidence, look at the
Trust vs Desperation... (Score:5, Insightful)
The US is unique in developed economies - luxuries are cheap...big screen TV, a car and so on. But necessities are expensive...healthcare, decent education, and to an extent housing.
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In short it is a problem of eroding middle class.
If you are poor, then you can get government assistance for food, heat, healthcare, and even housing support.
If you are rich, you convince the government not to tax you on many of the things used to create your wealth.
Which leaves the middle class who is shrinking to take on the burden.
We make too much get subsidies, but we also not make enough to really take advantage of the breaks.
So lets take a average family house hold of 90k a year for 3 people. That so
Comment removed (Score:3)
Sharing (Score:3)
has been the domain of the rich. This is because sharing was moderated by expensive middle men. If you own a castle in Britain, you are likely to regularly share some of the rooms (short-term renting them out through an expensive agency). But it wasn't easy to rent out that extra room or your basement in your three bedroom suburban house, because there was no affordable way to efficiently access that market (the market structure was very thin for short term renting).
Now the rest of us can partake in the sharing economy, agency costs have dropped dramatically for the stuff that the rest of us own.
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Capitalism vs. Protectorism (Score:2)
The Shares choose capitalism.
Land of the free home of the brave. God Bless the USA.
Real "Ecopnomy" or hype? (Score:2)
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Market theory (Score:4, Interesting)
A market works best if all sides have the same access to knowledge. Prior to the Internet there was no big market for "i have a room which is dont use" because exchanging information was too expensive.
However, it was not at all unusual on the countryside to just put up a sign if you had a room to rent. I remember bicycle trips where we just stopped at some farm and asked and got a room there.
What is new is that you can plan this.
Sharing is nothing new (Score:3)
In previous decades people shared stuff a lot. They shared tools, e.g., when they build houses. They shared land. They shared knowledge. Farmers, share their equipment for a long time, as it was expensive all the time. For example, harvesters are shared even today through farmers cooperatives. The "new" share economy is, therefore, not new. The only new thing is that the sharing platform is now a company and not a joint organisation making profit out of sharing. Furthermore, consumers are now able to share their goods with people over a larger area. And true, people would have led their car in the past only to people they know of. Now they share it with people who pay for it.
In the past sharing was a social act. Now it is a business. However, traditional sharing is also increasing. And traditional sharing requires people to like each other. Therefore, they have to build working relationships, which is definitively a step in the right direction.
"Taking in boarders" (Score:2)
Maybe I've just seen too many movies, but wasn't taking in boarders common at one point in the not-that-distant past? Maybe the adult male of a middle class household living in a larger house died and the family consolidated their use of rooms and let out rooms and maybe provided a meal, known now as "room and board"? Perhaps if there wasn't much left of the family it was nearly all a boarding house?
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Reminds me of the historically-inaccurate forwarded email that blames the Jamestown famine on communal labor and property, then explains how a switch to private ownership and market capitalism saved them all.
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Giving The Man "The Finger" (Score:3)
When the game is rigged against the individual in favor of corporations, the wealthy, and banks the only sane and sensible solution is not to play.
An economy is an economy. (Score:3)
That's interesting. Could the exact same thing be said about the banking industry? And the insurance industry? And stock brokerages?
The fact that New York magazine smears the sharing economy with the word "desperation" just speaks of editoralizing that tries to use controversial words to grab attention. Without the prestige of slick magazine paper, we would just call that activity "trolling".
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The fact that New York magazine smears the sharing economy with the word "desperation" just speaks of editoralizing...
Really? Are you sure they're editorializing here rather than simply giving a truthful description of the people who actually use this service to rent their facilities?
I would guess that people are using sites like AirBnB to rent their rooms or cars out of either a need or desire for money rather than as an altruistic gesture to give weary travelers discounted rates on their travels. You're
Need motivates Fear inhibits Trust mitigates fear (Score:2)
Trust can never be the primary motivator; there is no intrinsic value to trust. Trust reduces the perceived risk; decisions influence by trust can result in better or worse outcome--depending on who we trust.
The inhibitor is emotionally fear, or rationally an expectation that doing something gives another person an opportunity to take action against me. Emotionaly, trust removes that inhibitor--or, again in a rational sense I know another person (or community, or machine) well enough that I can predict th
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Yeah, but it's not really a popular one 'cause it would increase salaries considerably, and as we all know that's anathema to the powers that are.
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Yeah, but it's not really a popular one 'cause it would increase salaries considerably, and as we all know that's anathema to the powers that are.
Two words: Land grab. Them powers have managed to take ownership of the vast majority of the country. What ain't owned by the federal government (bureau of land management, military bases, this and that other area) is owned by the banks. Individuals who are not endemically wealthy hold a minuscule slice of the territory today.
Oh noes, it's only been one minute since I last posted a comment. I couldn't possibly have anything useful to say in one minute, after speed-reading a chain of comments between the las
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Just wait until you run into my usual problem. "You've said enough for today, let someone else have a chance for a change" (or something like that).
And yes, you're right. I don't know of a single "small" hotel that still belongs to its original owner. Usually it's either banks or they've been gobbled up by some chain.
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A negative income tax would either require higher taxes for the middle class, which would result in no impact or a minimal impact on the economy at large, as money is transferred between those who have not much to those who have nothing. Or you have to tax the rich resulting in a transfer from savings to the poor who spend it. This would have a positive effect on the economy, increasing jobs (for short), and increase inflation (a bit), however this would not find the approval of your oligarchic overlords in
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"If you do not work you do not eat"? Spoken as a true corporate tool. Who defines what "work" is then? Guess what: the people with money do, as they always have. Ask a rich CEO why they deserve the highest compensation multiple of workers ever today, and they'll tell you all about how their work adds value!
There's only place this road has ever led toward: rich people get so much negotiating power over poor ones they force them into inhumane working conditions, knowing they have to accept that or starve
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Any business model that is forged out of desperation rather than want and need is doomed to fail in the long run.
There are businesses that exist because they're beneficial for both parties. They are usually very long lasting because both parties have an interest to continue. As soon as you force one party into the contract, they will start looking left and right for alternatives and for ways out of it. Eventually people forced into such a situation will even out of spite try to get out, even if that means a
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