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The Military

How Nuclear Weapon Modernization Undercuts Disarmament 228

Lasrick writes: John Mecklin details exactly how nuclear weapons modernization is kick-starting a new arms race, and how modernizing these weapons to make them more accurate and stealthy puts the world at even greater risk of nuclear war: "[T]his is precisely why the U.S. Congress rejected the Air Force’s requests for low-yield, precision-guided nuclear weapons in the 1990s: Their very accuracy increases the temptation to use them." The issue is not getting very much attention, but the patience of the non-nuclear states is wearing thin, and a breakthrough in public awareness may be on the horizon: "The disarmament debate is likely to make this spring's NPT conference a contentious one and just might be loud enough to make the public aware that a new type of nuclear arms race is unfolding around the world."
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How Nuclear Weapon Modernization Undercuts Disarmament

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  • by Xenkar ( 580240 ) on Wednesday March 25, 2015 @12:20PM (#49337059)

    Often by the United States of America or other western powers. When nations see that having a nuke prevents other nations from toppling them, nukes become vital for stability.

    Perhaps we should stop driving them towards nuclear weapons by invading them for oil and minerals.

    • by aliquis ( 678370 )

      Perhaps we should stop driving them towards nuclear weapons by invading them for oil and minerals.

      Perhaps the world belong to everyone.

      And no, the output of peoples labor does not.

    • Pakistan has nuclear weapons (and India has the Mahatma Gandhi Memorial Nuclear Bombs as well), but aside from their border conflicts around Kashmir (for which the nukes make war less likely but more risky), their big invasion problem is non-governmental forces like Taliban, for whom nukes are really no use at all.

      And Israel, of course, has the bomb (probably also the hydrogen bomb), but you're not allowed to say that in discussions about whether Iran can make one also. Wouldn't be a total surprise if the

    • Often by the United States of America or other western powers. When nations see that having a nuke prevents other nations from toppling them, nukes become vital for stability.

      Perhaps we should stop driving them towards nuclear weapons by invading them for oil and minerals.

      So if you could travel back in time, you'd undo recent interventions. You would go back and change things so that today in your preferred reality, Afghanistan is still ruled by the Taliban with Bin Laden still living as their guest, Gadhafi still ruling Libya after completing the genocide he promised his opponents, and Saddam still ruling Iraq.

    • I'm pretty sure we have no interest in playing fair here. While we have the biggest stick, America and its allies are that much safer. We're not two equally matched swordsmen allowing fate to guide our strokes and may the best duelist that day win. We want to make sure that when they other guy shows up in his fencing gear and foil, we are in our tank with an Apache helicopter as our tag team partner. And if this allows us the responsibility of playing worldwide police officer (and yes, you can use recen

    • Often by the United States of America or other western powers. When nations see that having a nuke prevents other nations from toppling them, nukes become vital for stability.

      Perhaps we should stop driving them towards nuclear weapons by invading them for oil and minerals.

      Perhaps the most salient point was made in another thread. The Ukraine, as one of the only nations to ever willingly give up a nuclear arsenal, is in the process of being invaded. I'm not sure if you care about the distinction that in this case it is Russia doing the invading and not the evil America or her western allies.

    • by gatkinso ( 15975 )

      Ukraine learned this the hard way. Next time they come across 1900 nuclear warheads paired with various delivery systems, they'll think twice before giving them back.

  • Wait... what? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Penguinisto ( 415985 ) on Wednesday March 25, 2015 @12:22PM (#49337081) Journal

    How on earth does increased accuracy increase the temptation to use one? A nuke of any size going off *anywhere* as an act of war would immediately send up the balloon, and cause an all-out retaliation. Frig sakes, even Curtis LeMay knew that when he responded to Kennedy's request for a series of nuclear attack/response scenarios with a single puffed-out version of 'nuke them back to the effing stone age'.

    Seriously... if you use a nuke first these days, the entire planet will cut you off, if they don't come at you with everything they have. If you were nuked first, then the taboo has already been broken, and the world would almost expect you to unleash hell on whoever bombed you.

    I realize that global politics is a lot more subtle and complex than most folks realize, and maybe I'm wrong, but on this subject, it seems pretty damned cut and dried.

    • Re:Wait... what? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 25, 2015 @12:31PM (#49337169)

      How on earth does increased accuracy increase the temptation to use one? A nuke of any size going off *anywhere* as an act of war would immediately send up the balloon, and cause an all-out retaliation. Frig sakes, even Curtis LeMay knew that when he responded to Kennedy's request for a series of nuclear attack/response scenarios with a single puffed-out version of 'nuke them back to the effing stone age'.

      Seriously... if you use a nuke first these days, the entire planet will cut you off, if they don't come at you with everything they have. If you were nuked first, then the taboo has already been broken, and the world would almost expect you to unleash hell on whoever bombed you.

      I realize that global politics is a lot more subtle and complex than most folks realize, and maybe I'm wrong, but on this subject, it seems pretty damned cut and dried.

      You say these things as if they were fact. They are not, they are suppositions.
      The same way a defensive system can alter strategic balance, so can improved nuclear tipped missiles with highly accurate targetting systems. MAD is irrelevant in regional conflicts. Think about how close a nuclear exchange is possible between India and Pakistan. Or Israel targetting single military installations in Iran with bunker buster that are nuclear not conventional. Americans, Russians, French, British and the Cinese think of nuclear weapons as political weapons. Not military weapons. But if you manage to make a very precise low yield nuclear missile that incinerates let's say less than 1 km^2 it becomes by this simple performance an offensive weapon.Just like neutron bombs were all the rage in the seventies.

      • Re:Wait... what? (Score:5, Interesting)

        by Penguinisto ( 415985 ) on Wednesday March 25, 2015 @01:09PM (#49337511) Journal

        i would suspect that a regional conflict a'la India/Pakistan would amplify the ostracism/elimination by the rest of the world, since the stakes would be perceived as being smaller overall (as in 'oh, it's just a couple of small countries doing this, and they only have a small handful of nukes, so...')

        Now the act of North Korea tossing a nuke in anger would present some problems, but only insofar as China's tolerance for such an act. Then again, w/o China's protection, North Korea could be turned into a self-lighting parking lot with no one on the planet giving any real objections to it, though I'm not really sure that China would really tolerate the Norks pulling such a stunt.

        Israel I think is smart enough to know that if they used anything nuclear in an aggressive manner, what few friends they do have would cut them off at the economic knees, leaving them at the mercy of, well, all of their neighbors. I strongly suspect that the presence of Israeli nuclear weapons is purely political and/or last-ditch, and for no other discernable reason.

    • Re:Wait... what? (Score:5, Interesting)

      by Zontar_Thing_From_Ve ( 949321 ) on Wednesday March 25, 2015 @12:42PM (#49337265)

      Seriously... if you use a nuke first these days, the entire planet will cut you off, if they don't come at you with everything they have. If you were nuked first, then the taboo has already been broken, and the world would almost expect you to unleash hell on whoever bombed you.

      I realize that global politics is a lot more subtle and complex than most folks realize, and maybe I'm wrong, but on this subject, it seems pretty damned cut and dried.

      I really couldn't disagree more. If Russia or China nuked anybody, there would be a lot of world wide anger, but any actual acts against them? Ha ha ha ha ha. Even the USA's BFF the UK really could not possibly be more of China's bitch on a constant basis.

      Here's how I see the nuclear powers.
      Bad actors: Russia, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea.
      Good actors: USA, France, UK, Israel.
      I doubt that any of the "good actors" would ever use a nuclear device first. Putin may be just trying to make everybody else think he's unbalanced or he may actually be crazy enough to possibly use a nuke first. I'm not happy with either possibility. India probably wouldn't use a nuke first, but Pakistan may be crazy or irrational enough to do so. North Korea is definitely irrational enough to do so. I doubt that China's civilian government would use a nuke as a first choice, but I fear that the Communist Party may not have as great a control over the PLA as they'd like to think and if the PLA has the ability to launch strikes without the CCP giving the order, there just might be generals crazy enough to do it because they don't believe anybody has the guts to make them pay for it. No amount of public pressure can make the 'bad actors" I listed back off and if anybody honestly thinks the USA, France and the UK are the greatest threats to the world, then you're delusional to a point that nobody can bring you back from.

      • by aliquis ( 678370 )

        Your good vs bad seem an awful lot like west vs the rest ..

        Also I don't see why the US couldn't use theirÂs first.

        I know a good target which is even an ally to the country but I guess power and possibly stability is more important than human rights and politics. .. or it's about the possibly outcome, or millions of lives. Or whatever.

        Maybe it's just against nasty happening at a huge scale in a short time?

        Or they are afraid that if they used it that would had told the world it's ok and after that any co

      • by swb ( 14022 )

        I think I've read that the Israelis have communicated back-channel to key actors that they will respond to a nuclear or chemical attack against Israeli with a response that will hit *all* major Arab capitals and Mecca.

        To your larger point, I think only desperate, religiously motivated non-state actors reasonably believe that they can "get away" with use of a nuclear weapon. Either via subterfuge or because they believe in some kind of metaphysical redemption that transcends any material consequences.

        I thi

    • How on earth does increased accuracy increase the temptation to use one?

      Usually the ridiculous belief you could do a small scale strike to disable your opponent, or that there is a scenario in which nuclear war is "winnable".

      Those of us who remember when M.A.D (mutually assured destruction) as the awesome way we kept nuclear bombs in check have long since stopped expecting rational thought to play into the calculus of nukes.

      The assumption that nobody would ever be idiotic enough to use them has always struc

      • by Chirs ( 87576 ) on Wednesday March 25, 2015 @01:44PM (#49337817)

        Imagine that a nation had a small "clean" nuke that could be delivered with pinpoint precision. At that point it's basically just a more efficient form of high explosive. Why *wouldn't* they use it? (As opposed to tens or hundreds of conventional bombs.)

        The issue with nukes is that they're WMDs. If they got to the point where they were no longer WMDs but rather just a very efficient way of blowing up a relatively small area (a single remote military installation, for example) then people are going to use them.

    • A nuke of any size going off *anywhere* as an act of war would immediately send up the balloon

      Western nations have no stomach to use nuclear arms any more - so if Russia or Iran (well, really that should be when instead of if) uses nuclear arms against someone, very likely NATO will do nothing except sanctions. Really.

      If you think that sounds absurd, wouldn't shooting down a civilian airliner with zero repercussions sounds absurd? That has happened. So why is it so unlikely that a tactical nuclear weapon

      • If you think that sounds absurd, wouldn't shooting down a civilian airliner with zero repercussions sounds absurd? That has happened.

        That civilian airliner flew right into a war zone where aircraft had been shot down with SAMs earlier that week*. And the troops who shot it down fully believed it to be a Ukrainian combat aircraft. That loss is ENTIRELY on the airliner who chose that course. The Vincennes was more at fault for shooting down an airliner than the pro-Russian forces were in this case, and ther

        • That loss is ENTIRELY on the airliner who chose that course.

          That's a bullshit excuse since there were MANY airlines and flights flying that route, and it's not like pilots are "deciding" where to fly - they have routes already planned. There were probably thousands of flights over the Ukraine that week alone before the one plane was shot down...

          There is no excuse for shooting down a passenger jet, period. It's on people conducting war to not harm civilians if at all possible, and it's VERY POSSIBLE to id

          • Bullshit. Don't fly through a warzone. Air defense systems have a hard enough time not shooting down their own aircraft.
          • and it's not like pilots are "deciding" where to fly - they have routes already planned

            The AIRLINES should have changed those routes. NONE of those planes should have been there. Goddamn morons like you send airliners over a fucking war zone.

        • Sure, blame the victim.

          Funny how a bunch of drunken retards get a pass for shooting down an airliner they thought was a military transport plane that posed no immediate danger AND covering it up at the same time you condemn the stressed-out/paranoid crew of a warship that felt threatened (even though there was no threat) by an airliner they thought was a fighter aircraft where there was no attempt at a cover up.

          • That warship 1) caused the situation that made them feel threatened, as they went into Iranian waters to chase gunboats that fired WARNING shots at helicopters who were in their territory, and 2) there was no other fighting going on over the Strait of Hormuz at the time. It wasn't a known warzone, unlike Eastern Ukraine. So in that case, the crew of the ship do have a responsibility to identify civilian aircraft. The crew of a SAM in a war zone have a responsibility to fight a war.
    • How on earth does increased accuracy increase the temptation to use one?

      Take out NAS North Island, military target. US gets annoyed. World opinion unpredictable, depending on what led up to it. US might nuke you a bit in return. Might let you off if you say sorry and surrender immediately, pretty please, blaming rogue elements etc.

      Take out San Diego, massive civilian casualties plus fallout and shit. US will be more than a bit cross. World opinion will be mostly on their side, apart from anyone s

  • Comment removed (Score:5, Insightful)

    by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Wednesday March 25, 2015 @12:23PM (#49337083)
    Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • Given the small size of some nuclear warheads [wikipedia.org] I wonder how difficult it would be to just swap out conventional explosives with nuclear ones on existing precision weapons. Granted these tiny nukes are closer to a dirty bomb than what most people are familiar with when it comes to a nuclear explosion but still a 72 ton blast is at least on the same order of magnitude as one of these guys [wikipedia.org] even if they make up different ends of the order of magnitude, and we don't seem to have problems using the latter ones.
  • by TWX ( 665546 ) on Wednesday March 25, 2015 @12:23PM (#49337093)
    As long as other powers have nukes or have developed them and could develop them again then we'll have nukes. And as long as we have nukes then other countries will continue to have them as a deterrent against us.

    It doesn't matter how crude or sophisticated the device is- the two nukes that were used in conflict were just about as crude as one could get and they still each destroyed a city in one stroke.

    Science always progresses faster than poltiical thought. It's not usually science that uses the developments for ill intead of for benefit though, that's firmly in the realm of politics. That we've only used nuclear weapons in anger twice, effectively in one drawn-out moment in history, and have not used them cavalierly subsequently is hopefully proof that we're maturing, however slowly.
    • by Kjella ( 173770 )

      Your argument sounds roughly like the one I heard was common after WWI, after millions dying in static trench wars they thought barbed wire and machine guns would basically end war since any attacker would be sending their troops into a massive suicidal bullet rain. At the time it was probably true, remember the car was in its very infancy. Except over the next 20 years the Germans created Panzers and Blitzkrieg tactics outmaneuvering and overrunning France in six weeks.

      So maybe in the 1950s or 1980s you co

  • by tmosley ( 996283 ) on Wednesday March 25, 2015 @12:29PM (#49337149)
    Nuclear weapons prevent wars between great powers with great success. Only a complete idiot or a warmonger of the most evil type would call for nuclear disarmament. Of course, one of those groups is very useful for the other.

    If we didn't have all this nuclear non-proliferation nonsense, not only would the world be a peaceful place, but we'd have cheap, abundant nuclear power everywhere. There wouldn't be any "developing" countries--they would all be first world.

    Trying to have wars in a world with nuclear weapons is like trying to have gangs of roving banditos in a nation where everyone carries around rifles and handguns. It's just not possible, and anyone who tries won't last very long.
    • If we didn't have all this nuclear non-proliferation nonsense, not only would the world be a peaceful place, but we'd have cheap, abundant nuclear power everywhere. There wouldn't be any "developing" countries--they would all be first world.

      I'm answering you by quoting you, hoping that you pay attention to what you said.

    • by dryeo ( 100693 ) on Wednesday March 25, 2015 @01:57PM (#49337911)

      Trying to have wars in a world with nuclear weapons is like trying to have gangs of roving banditos in a nation where everyone carries around rifles and handguns. It's just not possible, and anyone who tries won't last very long.

      I guess that is why places like the middle east and Afghanistan are so peaceful.

  • Disarmamant? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by serviscope_minor ( 664417 ) on Wednesday March 25, 2015 @12:30PM (#49337159) Journal

    I frankly don't believe that disarmament is ever going to happen because too many people want power. So, the nuclear powers are:

    France - never going to disarm because they've been invaded twice in living memory (just) and suffered awful consequences. Never going to happen again.

    USA - lolno.

    Russia - yeah Putin is totally going to disarm when everyone does because he's such a nice guy. I think he'd wet himself with glee if everyone else disarmed.

    India - not until Pakistan disarms, because Pakistan is way too unstable (and probably not even then).

    Pakistan - not until India disarms, and, well, who will be a serious power without them.

    North Korea - well, they're a total basket case of a country so whatever they do wouldn't surprise me. But evil dictators aren't know for relinquishing power.

    Iseael - disarm while they're surrounded by hostile nations who tried to wipe them off the map within living memory? Not likely.

    China - eeeynope. I think they're going to keep on growing their power, and not being uninvadable is not a good way to do that.

    UK - I don't think we actually will (I really hope).

    • UK - Don't you remember being alone fighting most of a continent (under German rule), a little more than a 100 since you were alone fighting most of the same continent (under French rule)?
      • It's an interesting question why one of the two major island nations that is a staunch ally of the USA relies solely on the US nuclear umbrella as deterrent, but the other maintains its own, separate, nuclear force. That's not to say that Britain _should_ get rid of its nuclear weapons, or to suggest that Japan should develop them, either - it's just something of an interesting parallel. Of course, it probably has mostly to do with Japanese aversion to nuclear weapons (due to being the only people nukes w
        • Why worry about stockpiling nukes when you can just build them quickly if push comes to shove? They've got the know-how and plenty of nuclear material.

      • UK - Don't you remember being alone fighting most of a continent (under German rule), a little more than a 100 since you were alone fighting most of the same continent (under French rule)?

        Thankfully the two biggest parties do not support disarmament. Public opinion is always mixed and many people are distressingly naive about it.

    • Re: (Score:2, Funny)

      by Anonymous Coward

      I like how you gave France the excuse that they've been invaded twice, but the Russians, who have suffered exactly the same (and to much worse consequences), just want to keep their nukes because they're just bastards.

    • Re:Disarmamant? (Score:4, Interesting)

      by smoore ( 25406 ) on Wednesday March 25, 2015 @01:35PM (#49337749) Homepage

      India developed their nukes because of China not Pakistan. China is the only country with more potential soldiers than India and after several wars in the 60s where Chinese swamped the Indians with numbers they looked for an equalizer. Pakistan then followed India for the same reason to equalize their lesser forces with India's. India isn't going to disarm unless China does.

  • It's the fact that more smaller countries are now able to obtain or make nuclear weapons. When it was just the US and Russia, as long as the two countries were in a stalemate, the world was (somewhat) safe. But now that the list of countries with nuclear weapons is growing, the calculations become much more complex, and the risk level for the world is higher.

  • Ukraine? (Score:5, Interesting)

    by jklovanc ( 1603149 ) on Wednesday March 25, 2015 @01:00PM (#49337445)

    Most nuclear countries will see Ukraine as a cautionary tale. They disarmed and got invaded.

    • Yes, this is a very salient point. While Ukraine is unlikely to be completely taken over by Russia, it certainly goes to show how tangible weapons would be a lot more reassuring to a threatened nation than toothless paper "guarantees" of the sort Ukraine received.
    • Most nuclear countries will see Ukraine as a cautionary tale. They disarmed and got invaded.

      Libya, too.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D... [wikipedia.org]

  • Full disclosure: I haven't RTFA, so I don't know who the author thinks will nuke who. However, the responses here mostly assume it would be a nuclear power nuking another nuclear power. As many have pointed out, having precision nukes would not cause that to happen; it's just too risky.

    However, I think that precision nukes do increase the chance of a nuclear power nuking a _non_nuclear power. Granted, I don't think the risk is that high, but there are some possible scenarios where a precision nuke could be

  • the patience of the non-nuclear states is wearing thin

    That's and amusing line. These people are living in some kind of alternate reality where the Putins, Kim Jong-uns and nuclear armed imams of our world are standing around waiting for war crazed 'muricans to come to their senses so we can all mutually disarm because some pacifist hippy in Geneva said so. Just how far up your peacenik ass must you have shoved your head to actually believe the worlds nuclear powers are really going to indulge the `patience' of their client states?

  • by codemachine ( 245871 ) on Wednesday March 25, 2015 @03:56PM (#49339219)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]

    As usual, John Oliver has a great rant on the subject.

    Right now, the US has more nuclear weapons than they can safely take care of. Manning the silos is now a demoralizing job, because those people basically do nothing and yet the job is tremendously tedious. So it ends up being done by people who really shouldn't be in such an important position, and do not take enough care in their job, especially given the dangers if something were to go wrong.

    The US is the only country to drop a nuke on a civilian population. Everyone knows about when they dropped a couple on Japan, but few people remember when they accidentally dropped one on North Carolina. It did not explode, but it was one of a number of close calls that have happened over the years.

    As it is being managed now, the nuclear deterrent is more of a danger to the US than to anyone else, though it is also a danger to planet as a whole. I don't think a complete disarmament makes any sense in the short term, but a move towards scaling back to safe and sustainable levels would make sense. However, those that benefit from such massive and useless military spending are not about to let it happen without a fight.

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