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Transportation Businesses IBM Operating Systems

The Auto Industry May Mimic the 1980s PC Industry 287

An anonymous reader writes: An article at TechCrunch looks at some interesting parallels between the current automobile industry and the PC industry of the 1980s. IBM was dominant in 1985, employing four times as many people as its nearest competitor. But as soon as Windows was released, the platform became more important for most end users than the manufacturer. Over the next decade, IBM lost its throne. In 2015, we're on the cusp of a similar change: the computerized car. Automakers, though large and well-established, haven't put much effort into building the platform on which their cars run. Meanwhile, Google's Android Auto and Apple CarPlay are constantly improving. As soon as those hit a breakthrough point where it's more important for a customer to have the platform than the manufacturer's logo on the side, the industry is likely to resemble a replay of the PC industry in the 1980s.
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The Auto Industry May Mimic the 1980s PC Industry

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  • Oh please (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Viol8 ( 599362 ) on Monday May 18, 2015 @08:01AM (#49717143) Homepage

    Hardly anyone over the age of 25 cares about the eye candy touchscreen and gadgets in the car. They either car about space for kids and/or general crap, fuel economy, performance or looks or a combination of the above. Everything else can be done on a smartphone.

    • You're dying off (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Overzeetop ( 214511 ) on Monday May 18, 2015 @08:07AM (#49717221) Journal

      I disagree with the premise of the article, as there are quite a few things about automobiles which are independent of the OS the in-vehicle entertainment and nav console - much more than a beige box pc.

      However, it's worth noting that people over 25 are dying. Old people (over 25) as a market segment will change dramatically over then next 30 years as nearly everyone over 50 will no longer be in the market for an automobile. The "money" demographic will shift to those who are just now getting their driver's licenses.

      I do find it depressing that, in an age where interactivity with personal devices can be done in an agnostic way, more and more interfaces are becoming OS specific.

      • by NotDrWho ( 3543773 ) on Monday May 18, 2015 @08:16AM (#49717311)

        Yeah, but the 20-year-old who wants a cool software suite in his car today will be a family man who just wants plenty of room tomorrow. Eighteen year olds have a nasty, but consistent, tendency to become 30-somethings.

        When I was 18 I drove a Camaro with a kick-ass sound system and it was good.
        When I was 35, I drove a mini-van with many screens to distract the kids and it was good
        When I was 45, I drove a Camaro again, because I wasn't good.
        When I was 55, I drove a Mercedes and it was very good.

      • by judoguy ( 534886 ) on Monday May 18, 2015 @08:27AM (#49717407) Homepage
        You're an idiot. People over 50 are too old to buy cars!? Look at who has the money [wikipedia.org], in the U.S. at least. "Old people" who have far more money as a demographic than younger people.

        I'm in my 60's, no college debt, no house payment, making money hand over fist as an IT consultant. Who the fuck do you think the car companies drool over? Some young demographic with a bleak future or me?

        Dumbass.

        • by Chris Mattern ( 191822 ) on Monday May 18, 2015 @08:56AM (#49717719)

          The argument isn't that old people don't buy cars now, it's that they won't buy cars in the future, because they'll be dead.

        • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

          by Ol Olsoc ( 1175323 )

          You're an idiot. People over 50 are too old to buy cars!? Look at who has the money [wikipedia.org], in the U.S. at least. "Old people" who have far more money as a demographic than younger people.

          Ever see who is driving the "young guy Sports cars?

          That's right - old guys like you and me.

          When I was growing up, a Mustang was a cheapy sports car that an industrious kid in high school could own Fast forward to today, and they are expensive enough that few kids own one.

          Much of the under 30 market doesn't own a car period. And the ones who actually buy new cars tend to go toward minimalist freakboxes like the Kia's. I think paying for a smartphone has taken the place of car payments.

        • Having bought a new car this year and a new car two years ago I think I'm right in their demographic. I'm a DINK in my 30's. I have been thinking about replacing my current audi with something newer. I looked a Mercedes and the reason I don't like them is mostly due to interior tech. I want a large display, centralized controls (like bmw, audi, and mazda). The more tech the better. My wife's new car has a HUD and that is really cool.

          Sadly if you're not plush, luxury, and high tech, your not getting to provi

          • Amen to this. My Audi is going on 3 years old, and my one disappointment with it is the poor Multimedia interface. My son just bought a Mazda and we were looking at Volkswagen for him as well. Both have far superior in-dash systems for music, navigation, and vehicle information. What's really sad is that Volkswagen owns Audi, so you'd think they would put the better media system in the more upscale vehicle line.
      • by sinij ( 911942 ) on Monday May 18, 2015 @08:28AM (#49717413)
        Both views are simplifications. What you should be asking is as following, as people under 25 as they get older, still care about pointless shiny in their cars?

        When I was under 25 I made some very questionable stylistic and functional choices for my auto, now as I got older I grew out of it.
        • As people under 25 get older, their cars will become automated. At that point, the only thing they will care about is pointless shiny and interior infotainment.

          HP and muffler growl will go away as concerns. Even exterior looks will fade as a point of care as car sharing and on-demand ride services take over from individual ownership.
      • by gatkinso ( 15975 )

        You must be the douche bag that made a deal with God and is going to live forever.

      • I think it isn't an issue of difference in the generations, Millennials vs Gen X, but just an issue of Age, where 25 year old are not dieing out they are constantly being replenished.

        16-25 Is the time you are experiencing your independence. Going to college living on your own, hanging out with friends, It is new and exciting, you have little responsibilities (At least responsibilities with a short term effect), A car with a lot of gizmos that is sleek and fast, means you would be the one who is driving, the

        • by dj245 ( 732906 ) on Monday May 18, 2015 @11:09AM (#49718965) Homepage

          While those Gizmos may be cool and fun, they are no longer your major concern. Now this isn't all that bad, you are more mature and comfortable with yourself, things don't bother you so much, but you also need such distractions as well.

          I thought like that for a long time, then one day I realized that I had optimized "fun" almost entirely out of my life. I am a lot happier now that I make sure to budget for "fun" things. Going through life without frivolous, but fun things was negatively affecting my mental condition. The joy of saving a dollar can only take you so far.

      • As I've gotten older, I've gotten used to a lot of things that I previously associated with "being old." My hair now has streaks of grey. The songs I grew up listening to now play on the "Oldies" station. (Despite my yelling at the radio that Billy Joel is NOT oldies.) Sitting on the floor is still easy, but getting up involves a lot of aching bones/muscles. (Not to mention groaning sounds.) I'm turning 40 in a few months, so there's another "I Feel Old" moment approaching.

        But now I've been "old" and

        • Sitting on the floor is still easy, but getting up involves a lot of aching bones/muscles.

          I think a good working definition of "the threshold of getting old" is the age when overexertion causes more pain in the joints than in the muscles.

          As a young person, running an unusually long distance or lifting a weight an unusually large number of times causes sore muscles. As a not-young person, running an unusually long distance or lifting a weight an unusually large number of times causes sore joints -- and, unfortunately, it takes a lot longer to recover from sore joints.

      • People under 25 don't have the money to afford all this bullshit - they buy either cheaper new cars, or slightly used cars.

        At any rate, saying that Ford is going to go the way of IBM because of the software running the fucking radio is supremely retarded.

    • But I want a car that I'm going to keep for 15 years to be obsolete in two! :)

      Seriously, why don't we just have an activation code for an e.g. "Toyota App" for Android and iOS and a wifi display protocol as standard features by now? I can understand in 2010 why this wasn't the case, but at this point - people who eschew smartphones in 2015 should certainly be able to buy a $60 Android stick to plug in instead.

      Oh, right - here's why the headline is complete nonsense - the PC Revolution was the perfect examp

      • Re:Oh please (Score:5, Informative)

        by CanHasDIY ( 1672858 ) on Monday May 18, 2015 @08:39AM (#49717525) Homepage Journal

        Um, the PC industry has been regulated since at least the 1950's, and the Internet was created via a socialist military experiment.

        Did you forget the sarcasm tags?

        • Um, the PC industry has been regulated since at least the 1950's, and the Internet was created via a socialist military experiment.

          Did you forget the sarcasm tags?

          I think he needs a dafuq? tag. I'm still trying to parse the disconnects \

    • I agree with you, buying a car is more about the vehicle than the on-board OS. However I wonder if this could become more of an issue if vehicles become driver-less, "beige boxes" that are all big enough, economical enough, safe enough to make them hard to distinguish from each other.
      • No - people are just going to bring their devices wherever they go, same as today. What's the point of having an in-car device and then getting to your destination and going "oh snap! I left my smartphone at home!"
    • It's simpler than that: the author purports to see a black swan that will blindside the industry and cause a major turn-over; but you can't see black swans, and so this is not a blind risk. The auto industry is probably sitting on contingency plans to partner with various manufacturers at the tipping point, waiting back to avoid the major investment, knowing that it's a lot of start-up risk to start manufacturing cars. This is a controlled and managed risk, not the kind of industry-disrupting black swan
    • by sjbe ( 173966 )

      Hardly anyone over the age of 25 cares about the eye candy touchscreen and gadgets in the car.

      Speaking as someone who is over 40 I can assure you that that is not true. I think a touch screen can be a great feature in a car (see Tesla Model S) BUT it has to be well designed - not the shitty interfaces we usually see. I love cars like the Tesla Model S or Nissan GTR with a high geek quotient. Folks over 25 like gadgets just fine but we also expect that the gadget actually be intuitive and improve the driving experience. I do NOT want to spend needless time navigating stupidly designed menus or us

  • by NotDrWho ( 3543773 ) on Monday May 18, 2015 @08:02AM (#49717161)

    IBM wasn't undone by the platform, they were undone by the CLONES running the platform. And at the end of the day, a car is still 99% hardware. It takes a lot to build one, and I can't envision a world where cars can be easily home built from standard parts.

    • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

      That's almost true but electric cars are much more simple than our current internal combustion engine powered vehicles.

      Compare a Tesla with a Chevy, there must be an order of magnitude fewer parts in the Tesla.

      This along with the increasing importance of the car software platform (monitoring, communication, self driving, etc) could present a perfect storm for traditional auto companies that are caught napping.

      • by alen ( 225700 )

        the value of the tesla is in the software

        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          by tburkhol ( 121842 )

          the value of the tesla is in the software

          No, the value of a Tesla is that it's a gorgeous car with exceptional styling, beautiful materials, great performance, and decent range. They control some of this with software that I'll never directly interact with, and the nav/AV system is great, but putting a Tesla computer in a Lancer is not going to make people buy Lancers.

    • by xxxJonBoyxxx ( 565205 ) on Monday May 18, 2015 @08:07AM (#49717223)

      >> IBM wasn't undone by the platform, they were undone by the CLONES running the platform.

      IBM wasn't "undone" - period. Instead, the termination of its consumer-facing foray allowed it to tighten its grip on the short and curlies of the far more profitable corporate world, and even gave it a "PC 2.0" phase where it sold premium laptops (ThinkPads) to corporate buyers before selling that business too.

    • The PC business became commoditized & barrier to entry became almost zero, therefore the business model shifted to a service model for IBM, which changed the company significantly. Even with EVs, cars do not appear to be on that path.
    • by ArcadeMan ( 2766669 ) on Monday May 18, 2015 @08:19AM (#49717335)

      I can't envision a world where cars can be easily home built from standard parts.

      But... but... 3D printers!

    • Also it wasn't Windows, that sparked the Clone market, it was Good old DOS.
      By the time Windows 3.0 (The first popular version) came out MS DOS was king, you went to a software store, you will have a shelf for Apple, a half shelf for Amiga and Commodore, then the rest of the store was for MS DOS IBM Compatibles.

      But we Bought IBM Compatible computers, because they were cheaper, and they were no issues with quality. If you buy a Honda compatible car. Will it have the reliability and quality that we connect t

      • by msauve ( 701917 )
        "it wasn't Windows, that sparked the Clone market, it was Good old DOS."

        No, it was the availability of a clean room reverse-engineered BIOS (and that there were no limiting hardware patents on the IBM PC). First in-house by PC companies such as Columbia Data Products and Compaq, but later made available to all comers by companies like Award.

        Clones did not depend on MS-DOS, since PC-DOS was readily available for use, along with CPM/86 and others. MS-DOS became popular because it was much cheaper for clone
    • It takes a lot to build one, and I can't envision a world where cars can be easily home built from standard parts.

      I take it you have never heard of kit cars [kitcarusa.com] and crate [chevrolet.com] motors [fordperfor...gparts.com]

      • by bws111 ( 1216812 )

        I take it you don't understand the meaning of the words 'easily' and 'standard'. Kit cars basically start with a 'donor' car. Not exactly easy or standard. And why provide liks to both Chevy and Ford crate motors? They are just standard motors, right?

  • Modularity (Score:2, Informative)

    by Anonymous Coward

    Nah, cars have used modular electronics for ages. Car makers don't make much of anything actually, that is why they are called Assembly Plants. So they can install anything and change it on a whim from model to model and the owners can also change things if they have the money and the inclination.

  • More than a stretch (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Jawnn ( 445279 ) on Monday May 18, 2015 @08:03AM (#49717171)
    Cars are not PC's, but the author of TFA tries to argue that they are little more than a computing "platform". Automobiles are, of course, much more than that. Most of that "much more" is totally unrelated to computer-related functions or features, so to suggest that the auto industry will follow some parallel of the PC industry is just silly.
    • by jvp ( 27996 )

      so to suggest that the auto industry will follow some parallel of the PC industry is just silly.

      Yep. Further: there are very few industries as overly-burdened with Federal requirements (see: http://www.nhtsa.gov/cars/rule... [nhtsa.gov] for just 1 example) as the auto industry is. The connection TFA makes between the two industries is tenuous at best. More accurately: it's non-existent.

  • Warning (Score:4, Insightful)

    by postbigbang ( 761081 ) on Monday May 18, 2015 @08:04AM (#49717183)

    Vendor-driven marketing platitudes bearing little resemblance to reality using shortened memes for theme driven effect.

  • by JoeCommodore ( 567479 ) <larry@portcommodore.com> on Monday May 18, 2015 @08:05AM (#49717193) Homepage

    So, are we talking about the year of Linux on the Blacktop?

  • Very superficial (Score:4, Informative)

    by jodido ( 1052890 ) on Monday May 18, 2015 @08:06AM (#49717207)
    Too many differences to list. One, the cost of entry into the market for making automobiles is staggering, so there aren't going to be any new manufacturers. Quite different from the PC. Two, the cost to the buyer. PC's got cheaper but cars are getting more expensive. Three, you can live without a PC (you could back then, anyway) but very few cars are bought as luxury items. So, the vast majority of cars are going to continue to be sold as transportation devices and not as smartphone substitutes.
  • Along these lines, I see piracy to become a problem for these platforms. When every teenager in the neighborhood starts building their own computerized cars, they are just going to steal the platform (Android Auto and Apple CarPlay).

    • by Mal-2 ( 675116 )

      Piracy is less of a problem when the platform is "free" to start with. Most people will accept slightly annoying/intrusive advertising to get their OS for free. A few will jailbreak and clean it, but most won't.

      If those ads are for relevant things (like "you have less than a quarter tank of fuel, why not try Chevron with Techron?", "You are nearing 50,000 miles, here's a coupon for a free tire inspection", etc.) they may not even be perceived as intrusive so much as helpful.

  • Hardly! (Score:2, Informative)

    by jaymz666 ( 34050 )

    Cars will still cost a fortune and need to be reliable enough to get around for years.
    Just because it runs some fancy app interface that will be obsolete almost as soon as it's installed isn't really the reason to buy a specific brand or model of car.
    Head units are replaceable, even if the manufacturers keep trying to make it harder to do.

    • Cars don't have to cost a fortune. Tata Nano sells for the equivalent of US$3000 in India, and could do the same in many developing countries. How much did a PC cost in the 80s? About the same, or more factoring in inflation. At that price I don't mind if the whole thing is obsolete in a few years. I'd hate to be in one when it crashes like an 80s PC, but I cycle to work so for me it's always going to be the equivalent of an 80s PC crash anyway.
  • in my cars.

    There are two cars I want right now (well, one is being released soon).

    1. The Elio for getting to work and back. [eliomotors.com] Perfect for getting me and my backpack the 30ish miles there and back, and even good for going to lunch with a coworker. Excellent fuel mileage, and unlike a Smart Car (which doesn't really get that great of fuel mileage considering) I wouldn't be concerned about having to defend my manhood every time I stepped out of it or worry about random strangers trying to give me a wedgie for driving it.

    2. The Subaru Outback [subaru.com] as my vacation and haul the family around ride. The ability to easily carry many bicycles, kayaks, luggage, and people offroad, at good high cruising speeds Not to mention, great gas mileage for a rugged/versatile vehicle.

    I don't care about data platforms, just the ability to interface with what's there. The Elio would let me put whatever I wanted in there and tie it to the stereo, I'm guessing a Nexus 9 would be perfect. The Subaru support Bluetooth audio so I'll put my Nexus 9 in there too!

    • by Nidi62 ( 1525137 )

      in my cars.

      There are two cars I want right now (well, one is being released soon).

      1. The Elio for getting to work and back. [eliomotors.com] Perfect for getting me and my backpack the 30ish miles there and back, and even good for going to lunch with a coworker. Excellent fuel mileage, and unlike a Smart Car (which doesn't really get that great of fuel mileage considering) I wouldn't be concerned about having to defend my manhood every time I stepped out of it or worry about random strangers trying to give me a wedgie for driving it.

      I am actually hoping to be able to get something like the Elio in about 7 years or so when my current commuter car (a 2014 Focus) gets at or near end of life. I would love having an extremely cheap, efficient car like an Elio for my commute (40 miles each way), which would hopefully get my wife to let me have a jeep or motorcycle for the lifestyle/local driving

    • I really dig the Elio, both as a consumer and a "car guy."

      But a sub-10,000 dollar automobile that gets fantastic mileage, in America? I'm afraid that thing challenges too many well established estates to not meet a lot of opposition.

  • I still remember how awful early consumer operating systems were. They crashed, they had ridiculous requirements, and bad design. While all of this was unfortunate, the improvements were to the primary purpose of these systems.

    For cars, the awfulness of digital platform is for secondary purposes - these systems do not improve how the car drives, yet implications for your safety when something goes wrong are much higher.
  • by nealric ( 3647765 ) on Monday May 18, 2015 @08:26AM (#49717395)
    The big difference is that the auto industry is extremely capital intensive compared to the software industry. You can't start a car company out of a garage like you could a computer company. Even Tesla (with all of Musk's cash backstopping it) almost went bankrupt trying to get off the ground. For this reason, established players have a massive advantage. The more likely scenario is not that Automakers will lose their position as automakers, but that they will be forced to purchase automation equipment from tech companies. But automakers have always used third-party component suppliers- so this would really not be a huge change for them.
  • by ClayDowling ( 629804 ) on Monday May 18, 2015 @08:38AM (#49717517) Homepage

    The thing that's important about a car isn't the in car entertainment system. It's the wheels and the engine and the bits in between that let me get to where I need to go. I need that to last a decade or more. I need it to be a good match for the way I drive. The in car computer system? Don't care. My current ride doesn't even have much of a driver facing interface, other than some indicator lights. My in car entertainment system consists of a radio and whoever is in the passenger seat. Navigation comes from my smart phone. I upgrade the smart phone every couple of years, which expands capacity.

    • by T.E.D. ( 34228 )

      The thing that's important about a car isn't the in car entertainment system. It's the wheels and the engine and the bits in between that let me get to where I need to go. I need that to last a decade or more.

      Then you don't matter. Not to the automakers. You'll buy a car (probably not even new from the dealer) about 4 times in your lifetime, if you chose wisely and don't get in wrecks.The automakers will make almost no money off of you. I'm the same way. Mostly I only buy late-model used cars, and try to drive them until everything starts to fall apart at once like the Bluesmobile.

      The people who matter are people like my dad, who has bought or leased a new car every 2 years or less as far back as I can remember

  • by koan ( 80826 )

    The tech in cars seems behind the curve, so the PC analogy may be apt in several ways.

    A couple pulled over asking me directions, they had GPS in their car (mounted in dash not user replaceable) but it showed them driving on a lawn 30 meters away.
    My phone was spot on, if anything I could suggest that might help it would be this.
    DO NOT embed the tech in the car so that it is difficult for the user to replace, software and hardware will become obsolete quickly, the car its self not so much.
    Make mounting and in

  • So we are using computer analogies to describe cars, but we use car analogies to describe computers. I would have thought of a good joke hear, but my mind is too busy saying WTF .... Fizzle

  • mistaken parallels (Score:4, Interesting)

    by argStyopa ( 232550 ) on Monday May 18, 2015 @08:42AM (#49717559) Journal

    The article dismisses the significant difference between the auto industry and the computer industry: if your computer is a piece of crap, it's just some lost $. (ie the only thing lost is some money and perhaps time). If your car is badly made, it can quite easily kill you and your family in a host of interesting ways.

    This means that buyer conservatism is high, and willingness to 'experiment' is extremely low.

    You'll notice in similar industries where computer equipment is of comparable mission-critical role, they are likewise extremely slow to adopt "the next big thing" and nothing like the 'retail' electronics marketplace.

    So no, the automotive industry won't behave anything like the retail electronics market. Not at all.

  • Several reasons come to mind:
    • There is a lot more diversity in end product in the automobile industry today than there has ever been in the PC industry. A Hyundai Sonata is a lot different from a Chevrolet Suburban and neither is similar to a Ford Mustang in any meaningful way beyond they all have four wheels and run on gasoline.
    • The OS as a deciding factor was important to PCs because it dictated how users interacted with their PC and how software and hardware was developed for the same. There is no uni
  • OK, here's the author's analogy. A PC was hardware that ran software. By choosing a third party operating system, the IBM PC's designers turned it into an interchangeable commodity.

    These days a car is a hardware that runs software too. By choosing third party dashboard OSs, the manufacturers are turning them into interchangeable commodities.

    Really? If the same dashboard OS ran in a Mercedes C class and a Ford Fiesta, they'd become interchangeable?

  • 100 mpg, low cost, low weight, and some low cost insurance scheme if I don't drive it much. don't really need anything else. A couple USB sockets maybe, just for power.
    Equipment must include speedometer, passenger blind, a way to open windows, seats and belts. Well, if it does have windows.
    It must be able to reach at least 70 km/h and have at least a few kilowatts of maximum power.

  • by the_skywise ( 189793 ) on Monday May 18, 2015 @08:48AM (#49717641)

    PC's in the late 80s were standardized - Functionally there was very little difference between an actual IBM PC running DOS or a far cheaper PC clone running DOS. That changed with IBM attempting the PS/2 architecture but by then everybody was settled on the AT (and later the ATX) motherboard architecture. AMD vs Intel exchange some performance vs price differences but ultimately that's like choosing a V6 over a V8 over an I4 and most people aren't going to care.

    Each car manufacturer has its own architecture, designs and manufacturing styles - Just slapping a google-droidPod-phone-radio into the car isn't going to make a major difference when I'm looking for dependability or gas mileage (or battery mileage) or style/appearance.

    A closer analogy would've been the 6502 systems (the original Apple vs IBM vs Commodore 64 vs Atari)

  • With all the tech that will likely be coming with the self-driving options in the next couple decades, minor entertainment console updates will be an afterthought and/or ignored outright and replaced with our non-static tech of mobile devices as we lounge in the vehicle.
  • by peter303 ( 12292 ) on Monday May 18, 2015 @08:50AM (#49717655)
    There were hundreds of automobile startups in the 1900s-1920s until standardization and consolidation. Electric and steam vehicles were competitors before internal combustion won out.
  • A computer doesn't do anything but run the software written for it, so it was natural for the people who controlled the software to become dominant. A car still has to be, y'know, a *car*. It has to perform functions that software is there to enhance, but its purpose is not to run that software.

  • by gurps_npc ( 621217 ) on Monday May 18, 2015 @09:07AM (#49717805) Homepage
    The dashboard crap is not relevant to the discussion. Once we have driver-less cars (and I assure you, teens and people 70+ NEED driver-less cars already, so they will come), then the industry will change.

    Once that happens, then the industry will entirely change. There will become three basic kinds of vehicles:

    1. Recreational vehicles that do not have a computer. Further segregated into speed, off-road, and specialty classes.

    2. Cheap. Probably focused on low gas useage, low speed, simple transportation designed to get you to work and the store at a reasonable rate, all while you read, listen to music, or watch videos. Power, speed, appearance will pretty much be ignored here. You want to show off, pick a girl, you get yourself a recreational vehicle.

    3. Cargo. People will still need to haul stuff. Minivans/SUV types for parents, trucks for workmen, the main difference will be whether the cargo area is designed for people or for goods, and if for people will it have a minibar stocked with high end liquor, or a Videobar stocked with cartoons.

    The idea that the dashboard will become the all important feature only applies to Mommy-mobiles. It will be a relatively small portion of the market.

    • by Junta ( 36770 )

      I don't see how driver-less cars will change (other than the big one of actually *having* self-driving options). If someone would choose a corolla versus a taurus versus whatever today, I don't see them as suddenly not caring about whatever differentiate those cars today. Basically to the extent your categories would apply in the future, they already apply.

      I agree that the concept that the infotainment solution would not really change the fundamentals of the workings of the market, but neither does driver

    • by plopez ( 54068 )

      Will the driverless car be secure from cracking?

  • There was a time auto makers would make their car radios in such a way after market car stereos would be too expensive and/or impossible to mount. Enjoyed nice profit margins there. Eventually the mounts and connectors were standardized and the automakers lost that segment. But they never lost that mentality. Build in a GPS system and demand 200$ or 300$ to upgrade the maps-DVD-ROM. Now a days I see a few four/five year old Benzes and BMWs with plastic iPad/smartphone holder on the dash. These auto companies are used to product cycles stretching into a decade and vendor lock on accessories.

    Pretty soon nobody will buy a car if they can't swap in their own entertainment system, their own map/nav system. That profit center is gone, these auto makers have to wake up and realize it.

    The auto makers are so averse to competition and openness. How old are wi-fi enabled standalone network file servers? Why didn't they build one in to the cars, as you drive into the garage it logs into the router, synchs playlists, music, pod casts, weather reports, map information and is ready to go out with the latest info saved in a had disk? They could have done it 10 years ago.

    They hate electronics and hate electrical engineers. The petrol burning engineers seem to have a snooty attitude towards the electrical engineers. They could have removed the first gear ages ago. Just spruce up the starter motor to make it strong enough to move the car to 2 mph using amped up power from the alternator. Couple the wheels to the IC engine mechanically on the second gear. That would eliminate the low end torque requirement and they engine could be tuned differently for fuel economy, peak power at a different rpm etc etc. Much of the fuel economy of the Prius comes from having an IC engine that does not have to move the car from 0 mph.

    Of course, I am talking with 20/20 hindsight. But I am not a professional auto engineer. It is their job to have thought about it ages ago. Railways were big in 1950s and 60s. General Electric made a killing replacing all the steam locomotives with diesel-electric locomotives in just one decade. So fast some of the gleaming steam locomotives made just one run, from Baldwin Loco Works, Philadelphia to the scrap yard. Seeing how the torque problem in the locomotives is solved using an electric motor they did not make the connection and try to replicate it in their automobiles. They only were interested in pissing contests involving the sizes of the engines. 4 liter engine, 5 liter, 6 liter. 8 cylinder, 12 cylinder... More and more complex transmissions, clutches, slip rings, torque converters... all pure mechanical systems. Could have been replaced by one clean electric motor. The diesel-engine-generator and electric motors in the locomotive are just torque converters. But no, they would not even think about it.

  • by wienerschnizzel ( 1409447 ) on Monday May 18, 2015 @09:12AM (#49717855)

    I have read the article and I don't see the connection. A 1980's IBM PC without an operating system is just a noisy and expensive room heater. A 2000's Toyota without "general purpose platform software" will still get you any place you want safely and efficiently. What kind of added value is such an automotive software platform supposed to offer?

    Well, the author provides a list:

    - Keeping drivers consistently and happily surprised with new services.
    - Taking advantage of usage patterns to help customers become better drivers.
    - Offering reasonable, consumption-based insurance and maintenance packages.
    - Treating their dealerships like genius bars, not check-out counters.
    - Making cars that can talk intelligently with your home and your office.

    None of those sound too compelling for me and they certainly can't beat the operating system's pitch of "being able to use the friggin machine at all".

  • A better analogy is the auto industry in the 70's. The OPEC gas crunch made every car a brick, pressed higher unemployment, and resulted in towns full of abandoned vehicles.

    For 2015 we're seeing a generation of drivers who simply don't care enough about having their own car. Low wages, transportation options, green choices, etc., are all weighing on an old school industry that hasn't evolved past SUVs. Going into the red while still carrying the burden of school debt is not likely to motivate them much, e
  • A company-specific tech platform? Are you fucking kidding me? Why would I want something that's going to be dead many years before my car is dead? I drive a VW with generic Bluetooth, and it works perfectly with any gadget (except Apple... they're fucked). I would never buy a car with a brand-specific entertainment system.
  • The reason IBM "lost its throne" is because it either didn't have the inclination to patent every single little aspect of the PC hardware (making clones impossible) or it had the foresight and wisdom to not go down that route.

    With computerised, self-driving cars there will never be a standard that everyone across the industry adopts unless one manufacturer becomes dominant in the field (just be dint of numbers that would probably be a chinese company) or the auto makers take a similar stance and forgo pat

  • Automakers, though large and well-established, haven't put much effort into building the platform on which their cars run.

    There's a reason for that. They're quite bad at it. That, and BlackBerry/QNX [blackberry.com] are quite good at it. Currently if you want Apple Car or Android Auto in your vehicle that vehicle will be running BlackBerry QNX Car as both platforms are simply plug-ins [zdnet.com] for QNX Car. BlackBerry needs to renegotiate its contracts such that they get credit just like Microsoft did with Sync so people know how pervasive BlackBerry actually is. Currently over 50% of the cars made worldwide run QNX Car. The problem is car makers choose

  • by fygment ( 444210 ) on Monday May 18, 2015 @09:32AM (#49718065)

    Thay are already shaking up the industry, a focus on software might allow them to put the final nail in the coffin.

  • by globaljustin ( 574257 ) on Monday May 18, 2015 @11:46AM (#49719247) Journal

    In 2015, we're on the cusp of a similar change: the computerized car.

    no, we're not

    i know alot of very wealthy people have invested alot of money and research into the idea that it is, but it's always been an over-reach to think they would be in general daily use...especially the google car with no steering wheel

    self-driving vehicles are more advanced than ever, because *all automation is getting better*

    i can definitely envision self-driving semi-trucks in dedicated lanes, or google car-type things at amusement parks and even in a central downtown area like Manhattan

    i know it's hard to hear this but a truly autonomous car that interacts with daily traffic with no restrictions is much, much more complex than anyone other than the actual people who do the coding work will admit

    talk to someone who actually codes the AI for this stuff...there's a bright future ahead, but the hype machine is in full effect

Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes, and not rather a new wearer of clothes. -- Henry David Thoreau

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