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Google Diversity Report Straight Out of 'How To Lie With Statistics' Playbook 287

theodp writes: Among the books recommended by Bill Gates for beach reading this summer is How to Lie With Statistics, the published-in-1954-but-timely-as-ever introduction to the (mis)use of statistics. So, how can one lie with statistics? "Sometimes it is percentages that are given and raw figures that are missing," explains the book, "and this can be deceptive too." So, does this explain Google's just-released Diversity Report and the accompanying chock-full-o-percentages narrative (find-all-%-image), which boasts "the Black community in grew [sic] by 38 percent", while the less-impressive raw figures — e.g., the number of Google employees increased by 5,928, but the ranks of Black females only increased by 35 (less than 0.6% of the net increase) — are relegated to a PDF of its EEO-1 Report that's linked to in the fine-print footnotes? To be fair to Google, Microsoft, Twitter, Apple and Amazon didn't want people to see their EEO-1 numbers, either.
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Google Diversity Report Straight Out of 'How To Lie With Statistics' Playbook

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  • Diversity (Score:5, Insightful)

    by asylumx ( 881307 ) on Wednesday June 03, 2015 @07:28AM (#49829263)
    The big lie, I guess.
    • Re:Diversity (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Chas ( 5144 ) on Wednesday June 03, 2015 @07:37AM (#49829317) Homepage Journal

      Pretty much.

      What color a person's skin is, or what equipment they keep between their legs isn't as important as the knowledge they have in their head and their skill at utilizing it.

      Slotting someone into a position ahead of a worthier candidate, simply because they're a certain race/gender, rather than because they're the best candidate is idiocy of the highest order.

      It's not Google/Apple/whoever's problem that a given race or gender has historically been downtrodden. Google/Apple/Whoever didn't do the treading, so why should they be guilt-tripped into settling for mediocrity for some lie about "equality"?

      Because what's being pushed here is not about "equal" treatment. It's about "special" treatment.

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by kabulykos ( 213285 )

        And perhaps when such assessments of worthiness become as exact a science as you presume them to be, such nonsense can be done away with. My experience with getting jobs in tech — and my hearing of interviews in other fields of employment — suggest at best a loose relationship between most interviewing techniques and many skills actually relevant to completing projects in a corporate environment.

        The folks that run these companies are bright people, and they're more than able to decide if it furt

        • And perhaps when such assessments of worthiness become as exact a science as you presume them to be, such nonsense can be done away with. My experience with getting jobs in tech — and my hearing of interviews in other fields of employment — suggest at best a loose relationship between most interviewing techniques and many skills actually relevant to completing projects in a corporate environment.

          Yes, but that's a completly different matter, usually based on outsourcing the first candidate screening to HR, or basing the whole recruiting process on mindlessly copying what someone read in a magazine on how (ironically) Google does their recruitment process to find the best and most creative tech skills.

          I haven't heard either that (in large enough corporations) gender or skin color were part of the interview process either.

          • Re:Diversity (Score:5, Insightful)

            by tnk1 ( 899206 ) on Wednesday June 03, 2015 @11:50AM (#49831647)

            While a company like Google likely has all sorts go through their doors, I can tell you what my experience with hiring is.

            Working in a small company, I frequently have quite a bit of exposure to the raw talent pool. Sometimes HR gets involved, but just as often, I am talking to the recruiters myself.

            There is the occasional woman. There is the occasional black man. What there is not are both black and female. Google having only 35 black females mirrors my experience. The percentage of resumes of black females, even for junior positions, is likely so low to begin with that I never see one and Google probably only sees a few hundred.

            And that is even before any question of their skills or experience come up.

            I'm wary of a scenario where the first black female resume in my 5 years as a manager will someday come across my desk and she just happens to not have the skills I require for the job and don't hire her. Am I suddenly discriminating in my hiring practices because I have rejected 100% of my black female candidates? Do I hire her because "diversity"?

            More to the point, if I had two identically skilled candidates, and one happened to be a black female, do I derive an advantage from hiring her over the other person?

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by Anonymous Coward

        There are biases. Conscious or sub-conscious and everyone has them. People like to fool themselves into thinking that they are objective and that they can fight their own prejudices. And it's not just about race or gender. When I hear folks with those thick Southern accents, I find myself considering them of lesser intelligence.

        And what about the prejudice against age? Zuckerberg actually said that older people "don't get it" - which I find funny since old people love facebook since they can be a part of

      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        by LWATCDR ( 28044 )

        I still think a big part of it is location. SF has large asian and white communities and only tiny African American and Hispanic communities. Oakland's African American community is also shrinking but Oakland never had a large educated African American community.
        If Google wants a more diverse workforce it needs to open centers in areas with more diversity like Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, and South Florida. Places where you have "Traditionally Black Colleges" and or a long established Hispanic community.

        • by msk ( 6205 )

          Google should have telecommuting for all its employees, then it could attract talent from all over.

        • As an Atlantan, I'll tell you that while black people are common, black software engineers are still pretty rare. Of the three black people [in technical roles] I work with, two are actual immigrants from Africa and the third is a QA person, not a developer. I think black engineers are more common in other fields, such as civil engineering.

          Also, the historically black colleges around here, such as Morehouse and Spelman, are excellent places to look if you want to hire a doctor, lawyer or businessperson, but

          • by LWATCDR ( 28044 )

            Frankly I would like to see them open one in the Palm Beach area of Florida but yes Atlanta would IMHO probably help attract a more diverse workforce as well.

        • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

          I don't think trying to create more diversity in SF by hiring people from further away and bringing them in is necessarily a bad thing. Maybe bad for housing, a separate issue, but rather than going to where the concentrations are I think it's better to try to reduce the concentrations by encouraging people to move around.

          • by LWATCDR ( 28044 )

            " but rather than going to where the concentrations are I think it's better to try to reduce the concentrations by encouraging people to move around."

            Ever think that an African American might not want to move away from where his culture is? Or a Hispanic person?
            Frankly I would hate to live in the SF area. I like the level of diverse culture that South Florida offers. Not just in race but economics and urban and rural lifestyles.

            The Bay area just does not seem like a place I would want to live and I bet a lo

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by Anonymous Coward

        Google/Apple/Whoever didn't do the treading, so why should they be guilt-tripped into settling for mediocrity for some lie about "equality"?

        Because it's in their own financial and quality reasons for doing so. Look, I know this is an unpopular stance here on Slashdot, where middle class white man-children think they invented the universe because they can use emacs, but if a group of people is "historically discriminated against," and there is no ACTUAL genetic or biological reason which you can point to th

        • Re:Diversity (Score:4, Informative)

          by NostalgiaForInfinity ( 4001831 ) on Wednesday June 03, 2015 @10:23AM (#49830675)

          This means that there are, quite literally, tens of thousands of people who are *perfectly capable* of being excellent software engineers - just as good as you - but who are not working in that field because they've been told, in effect "sorry, Black dudes, and girls of all colors can't do this stuff. Maybe you'd like dealing drugs or baking cakes instead?"

          But that's fiction. Black kids aren't being told that at all. Instead, many deliberately avoid academic and STEM fields because their own peers disapprove of it.

          Nobody is arguing that companies should go out and hire brain-damaged people who can't read to do these jobs - they're talking about addressing the situation through increased educational outreach

          The poverty and lack of achievement associated with African Americans is not primarily a consequence of discrimination or lack of outreach.

          You can't address a problem if you don't understand its causes.

          • This means that there are, quite literally, tens of thousands of people who are *perfectly capable* of being excellent software engineers - just as good as you - but who are not working in that field because they've been told, in effect "sorry, Black dudes, and girls of all colors can't do this stuff. Maybe you'd like dealing drugs or baking cakes instead?"

            But that's fiction. Black kids aren't being told that at all. Instead, many deliberately avoid academic and STEM fields because their own peers disapprove of it.

            Just to be pedantic, that would mean that they are being told that they can't (or at least shouldn't) do it. It doesn't necessarily have to be an adult that teaches children what jobs their gender, ethnicity, etc. can and cannot do. "Peer pressure" has been an issue at least since I was in grade school.

          • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

            by terbo ( 307578 )

            >> many deliberately avoid academic and STEM fields because their own peers disapprove of it.

            Break it down. Where do you get your information from? The addressing of any problems
            requires understanding the framework in which they work, which begs the question.

            Institutional discrimination, impoverishment from colony establishment, obfuscated history,
            and extremely biased education create the problems you speak of.

            In some ways, yes, the black kids you talk of are being told they cannot achieve, in
            wide-sca

        • by Chas ( 5144 )

          If these people are "perfectly capable", let them apply like any other prospective employee.

          I have zero issue with capable people filling positions. I don't care WHAT their background is. I'm just concerned with "can they do the job", and "can they convince me they'll do it *better* than the other 500 applicants"? Whether it's some Ivy League schmuck or a guy who put himself through a vo-tech. Black, white red, yellow, green, blue, whatever. Man/woman/???, whatever.

          I simply think that the positions oug

          • And on the other side of the argument, I'd hate to think that I was hired to meet a quota, especially in a place where the reputation of those already hired under the same system results in poor candidates.

            Because people would automatically assume that I, too, was poor right from the gate.

            And even worse, might blow smoke at me for how "good" my performance was in case my predecessor on the quota list did a particularly great deal of tongue-wagging to HR, who, being the good little set of diversity-promoting

        • I agree with much of what you say, but I don't know that there are any problems with Google hiring practices. Google can only hire people who apply, and if the pool of competent applicants is heavily slanted there's not much they can do about it. (They do have some diversity initiatives.) From a national point of view, we're doubtless losing out on a lot of good software people who are discouraged for some reason or another, but it looks like most of the discouragement happens before they apply for jobs

      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        Slotting someone into a position ahead of a worthier candidate, simply because they're a certain race/gender, rather than because they're the best candidate is idiocy of the highest order.

        *sigh*

        I don't know how many times this has to be said, but that isn't what they are doing or what anyone is suggesting. The selection process is still done on merit alone, no question. All the effort goes into getting more people from under-represented groups up to the necessary standard and to actually apply for the jobs in the first place.

        For example, if you look at a network liked LinkedIn you find that in workplaces that are mostly male the people working there are mostly connected to other males. So wh

        • Re:Diversity (Score:4, Informative)

          by butchersong ( 1222796 ) on Wednesday June 03, 2015 @11:39AM (#49831481)

          The selection process is still done on merit alone, no question

          As someone that has been involved in the hiring process at a large tech company that has not been my experience.

      • Re:Diversity (Score:4, Insightful)

        by tehcyder ( 746570 ) on Wednesday June 03, 2015 @08:38AM (#49829743) Journal

        Slotting someone into a position ahead of a worthier candidate, simply because they're a certain race/gender, rather than because they're the best candidate is idiocy of the highest order.

        But not as idiotic as denying someone a position simply because they're a certain race/gender.

      • Re:Diversity (Score:5, Informative)

        by The Raven ( 30575 ) on Wednesday June 03, 2015 @08:51AM (#49829845) Homepage

        Your comment is absolutely true. But that's not the whole story... in a study a few years back, "applicants with white-sounding names were 50% more likely to get called for an initial interview than applicants with black-sounding names." [chicagobooth.edu] This is a real problem that affects minorities, so while preferential treatment is also a problem the biases have to change quite far before it's likely that minorities are getting actual preferential treatment.

        • Re:Diversity (Score:5, Interesting)

          by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Wednesday June 03, 2015 @10:07AM (#49830539) Homepage Journal

          I've actually done this using my real name and a variation of it. My real name didn't get an interview, the fake "English" sounding one did. I didn't go, but man it was depressing.

      • what equipment they keep between their legs

        Related to that, however, is the question of what hormonal influences may arise. For one example (of many possible), with males, you often see more aggression, and (obviously) with females, less. Pretending there can be no relevant differences WRT job performance is not an optimum approach. Furthermore, interactions between the people of significantly different sexual identity are of inherently different natures. Much as the incoherent would like you not to believ

        • Pretending otherwise doesn't make such things go away.

          Pretending those matter though doesn't mean they do. If one accepts the hypothesis that gender has some effect on the ability to write computer programs then if you aggregate together many members of each gender and figure out their ability there will be some statistically significant difference.

          If then, one were in the odd position of making blind hires with no information other gender, then if the hypothesis is true, you'd get best results by hiring p

          • by fyngyrz ( 762201 )

            No it shouldn't. If gender is a predictor of ability then the probability distributions are BY DEFINITION not independent. If therefore you use the knowledge of gender after evaluating ability then you are treating them as independent variables when you combine them. This is mathematically bogus.

            Actually, that's just mathematically simplistic. Here's what your reasoning does not account for: There are leanings, abilities and competencies that do not exist in isolation from other influences. Gender can be o

            • Actually, that's just mathematically simplistic. Here's what your reasoning does not account for: There are leanings, abilities and competencies that do not exist in isolation from other influences.

              How does it not account for that? Gender gives you a probability density function over performance, which gives you a prior on someone's performance in the absence of further information. Once you have a measurement of the performance the prior PDF doesn't yield anything extra.

              For instance, the air force has defi

      • All true. That does not excuse companies from being misleading for PR reasons. If companies were up-front about WHY they have the demographics they do -- society does provide female and minority candidates -- it might provide impetuous for change. Hiding reality rarely, if ever, improves anything.
    • Re:Diversity (Score:5, Insightful)

      by NotDrWho ( 3543773 ) on Wednesday June 03, 2015 @07:44AM (#49829361)

      Part of the lie is that somehow diversity is somehow going to help your business. "It will open us up to new ideas and a new audience" usually just turns into "Everyone is walking on eggshells around the new hire, the new hire isn't as qualified or hard-working as candidates we passed over, and if we ever try to fire the new hire we're going to get sued for discrimination."

      • Re:Diversity (Score:4, Insightful)

        by weilawei ( 897823 ) on Wednesday June 03, 2015 @08:08AM (#49829513)

        Everyone is walking on eggshells around the new hire

        Balls. Grow some. I don't care if you're pink, purple, and green all over in the worst re-imagining of Picasso. You either have the technical chops and willingness to learn & work, or you don't. Nothing else is relevant.

        As an aside, I'd rather work with someone who was a complete asshole, but often right, than a person who was always nice, but often incorrect.

        • You say that now, wait until you have gone through the diversity training and have been reconditioned...

        • I'd rather work with someone who was a complete asshole, but often right, than a person who was always nice, but often incorrect.

          Personally, I prefer people who are both nice and right, but maybe I'm just an old hippy.

          The fact is that it is much easier to be an asshole all the time, than right all the time.

        • As an aside, I'd rather work with someone who was a complete asshole, but often right, than a person who was always nice, but often incorrect.

          I wouldn't. When the asshole is incorrect, they'll still be an asshole. They'll probably be an even bigger asshole because you dared challenge their wisdom.

    • by fche ( 36607 )

      ... not to those who make their living championing the issue.

  • by rmdingler ( 1955220 ) on Wednesday June 03, 2015 @07:48AM (#49829389) Journal
    Lie, damn lie, or statistic; these companies are being forced to engage these topics by the increasing social pressure to appear "fair handed."

    If you imagine that you are tired of hearing about it as a reader or tech employee, just imagine how it might be for the people whose job it is to make this bettter at the supposedly forward thinking tech giants.

    How are those numbers coming, Jim?

    Well, we've hired as many somewhat qualified people as we can find, and it's still not enough. Can we count the cafeteria employees again this year?

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      Or they could do what Google is doing, and start educational programmes aimed at improving the situation. Away from sensationalist headlines, people with an actual interest in this subject understand that while the numbers now are not brilliant Google is making a genuine effort to improve things that will take at least a few years to really make a substantial difference.

      Also, do you have any evidence that they hire "somewhat qualified" people? Their stated policy is to hire the best candidate, and efforts a

  • Statistics in School (Score:4, Informative)

    by KermodeBear ( 738243 ) on Wednesday June 03, 2015 @08:06AM (#49829505) Homepage

    My father told me that when I took math classes in college, that Statistics I will teach me everything I really needed to know about the subject, but that Statistics II would teach me how to lie with what I learned. He was not incorrect. There's so many ways to manipulate the data that I find it very, very difficult to trust ANY stats that I find in the news without also having access to the raw data, the methodology, questions used, selection process, etc., etc., etc.

    • by tompaulco ( 629533 ) on Wednesday June 03, 2015 @08:21AM (#49829625) Homepage Journal
      I've always used an example of how statistics can be deceiving. If you put 99 rocks and a chicken egg in a box, and a baby chick walks out, there was a 99% chance that it came out of one of the rocks.
      • Nice example.

        I prefer statistically, there are usually 1.4 popes per square kilometer living in the Vatican State. And current rate is even up to 2.8!

        • There is no statistically significant conclusion that all people die. Out of the roughly hundred billion people who have ever lived, about ninety-three billion are dead. That's not significant at the .05 level.

      • I've always used an example of how statistics can be deceiving. If you put 99 rocks and a chicken egg in a box, and a baby chick walks out, there was a 99% chance that it came out of one of the rocks.

        No, there is not.

        There is a 100% chance the chicken came out of the egg and a 0% chance that it came out of one of the rocks.

        There is not an equal probability that a rock and an egg will produce a chick.

        • There is a close to 100% chance that it came out of the egg and a close to 0% chance that it came out of one of the rocks. Highly improbable does not equal impossible. Anything is possible.
  • by prisoner-of-enigma ( 535770 ) on Wednesday June 03, 2015 @08:09AM (#49829523) Homepage

    Google hires people based on talent. Women and minorities are under-represented in the technical and engineering community. That is a fact of life. Until more women and minorities CHOOSE to enter this field, getting a "diverse workforce" would have to mean you exclude more qualified white males in order to hire less qualified minorities and women.

    Think about that for a moment. Suppose hospitals did things this way? If you need critical brain or heart surgery, do you want your surgeon to be one of the best in his or her field, or one that was a "diversity hire"?

    Until you're comfortable with the second option, this "diversity" idiocy needs to stop. It's one thing to exclude perfectly qualified candidates because they're female or minority. It's another thing to make that the primary reason you're hiring them instead of making sure they're the best qualified for the job.

    • Just you wait until hospitals are run by the government and hire this way... well, you can see it now, it is called the VA.

      Where they improved their time-to-wait appointment statistics by canceling and rescheduling appointments and/or putting them on off-the-books waiting lists.

      Some day, we will all get equal medical service of this same quality.

      • by KGIII ( 973947 )

        I have the feeling that this is going to be a long post as I have a lot to say on this subject so this is a novella warning - TL;DR Ahead!

        My Experiences, Observations, and Gathered Data Concerning the Veteran's Administration Hospitals.

        Do you have experience with the VA? I have, a lot. There are some hospitals which are the exception to the rule (on either end of the spectrum) but my personal experience has shown that the only issues I have had were long wait times at the emergency check-in because of triag

    • Google hires people based on talent. Women and minorities are under-represented in the technical and engineering community. That is a fact of life. Until more women and minorities CHOOSE to enter this field, getting a "diverse workforce" would have to mean you exclude more qualified white males in order to hire less qualified minorities and women.

      But if possible, companies should take measures to make the tech community more "diverse" (or "equal-rights" or "whatever"). But some stupid quota hiring is not helping.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by tehcyder ( 746570 )
      You are perpetuating the myth that companies have some sort of quota for women/blacks/whatever they they "have" to fill.

      The truth is that, in the absence of evidence that (say) black lesbians are inherently incapable of doing "X", you would expect that the number of your employees who are black lesbians is roughly in line with the proportion of black lesbians in society as a whole. If not, it means there is some sort of unconscious bias going on.

      The problem with a lot of tech people is that they think
      • by jsrjsr ( 658966 )

        The truth is that, in the absence of evidence that (say) black lesbians are inherently incapable of doing "X", you would expect that the number of your employees who are black lesbians is roughly in line with the proportion of black lesbians in society as a whole. If not, it means there is some sort of unconscious bias going on.

        But the "bias" may not be on the part of the employer. Consider the possibility that black lesbians are just not interested in the job you are hiring for. (Maybe they are smarter than those who do want that job.)

      • The problem with a lot of tech people is that they think their jobs are this mysterious "X" that for some reason only white males can do, and that tech companies therefore have some sort of exemption from behaving like everyone else.

        That's just not true. Law is the biggest boy's club in the world. Ask almost any female lawyer, and they will tell you that they bone up on typical male interests like sports, cigars, bourbon, etc. So it must be dominated by men, right? It's not. Law is almost an even distr

    • Google hires people based on talent.

      ITYM google hires people based on an obscure interviewing process which requires you to be able to recite details of algorithms you'd only learn in a CS course, but without reference to any reference material.

      It's a substitute for talent, which biases them towards hiring people who have very recently finished a CS degree. And are therefore young.

      This explains the astonishing level of churn in their "products" and why they seem to value nuking something that works and repl

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      Until more women and minorities CHOOSE to enter this field, getting a "diverse workforce" would have to mean you exclude more qualified white males in order to hire less qualified minorities and women.

      Do you think the marketing guys at Coke say "until more people device to drink Coke, getting more people to buy our product would have to mean poisoning all the wells and reservoirs"? Or do they perhaps try to encourage people to drink Coke, because historically that has worked quite well?

      That's what Google is doing. Encouraging under-represented groups to apply for their jobs, but still hiring the best candidate in the end.

    • Google has been spending a lot of money on lobbying democrats lately (republicans too, of course).

      Google doesn't care about diversity, but those democrats do. So Google makes reports of diversity in exchange for favors from politicians. That's the reason you've been hearing so much about it lately.
  • Everyone is ignoring the most important number!

    Difference between percantage of [minority] employees and percentage of [minority] applicants.

    Heck if you only have 2% white employees, that makes you the most diverse employer ever if only 0.5% of applicants were white.

    It would take some steam out of this whole discussion to have a look at those numbers.

    Granted, with numbers as in my hypothetical example would definitely point out a problem (or at least an interesting statistical anomaly), but outside the scop

    • Percentage of qualified applicants, you mean. Unqualified gits apply for entitled employment all the time. "I took computers in high school but I think I'd be a good fit for your 8-year-experience BA certified Oracle database engineer position because Oracle runs on Linux and I tinker with MySQL!"
      • Shouldn't be such a big difference if unqualified applications are distributed evenly among relevant minorities. But would be a really interesting research subject, too.

        • OK, that work day is down the drain anyway. I declare my last post as "open season for anecdotal evidence". Keep the good stories comming.

  • Oops, I did slightly understate the denominator (couldn't cut-and-paste numbers), but results are close to same (actually a pinch worse). From the linked-to Google EEO-1 filing: (Current # Black Female Employees (250) - Prior # Black Female Employees (235)) / (Current Overall Total # Employees (32,527) - Prior Total # Employees (26,559)) = 35 / 5,968 = 0.0058646113, or about 0.59%.

  • At google and every other big tech company.

  • The question should not be "What percentage of your IT staff is African American?".

    The question should be "What percentage of qualified African American IT applicants were hired?".

    If Google is only getting 5 AA applicants for every 100 white applicants (or asian, or whatever...) then it puts Google in a tough position. Should they be expected to hire all 5 AA applicants, regardless of merit, to give the appearance of "evening things out"? Even if they do hire all 5 then someone will still complain that only

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