Are High-Tech Cars Killing Auto Repair Shops? (wired.com) 196
"Auto industry insiders have waxed poetic about the safety benefits of the 'software-defined vehicle' — which also enables revenue-boosting data collection and subscriptions that make it safer to be an auto executive too," writes Wired.
"Less talked about are the consequences of computerized cars at the auto shop." Fixing complex vehicles requires increasingly expert and expensive knowledge, and tools that are in limited supply.... [T]he upshot can be that it takes longer to get your car fixed.
The trend is worsened by an ongoing decline in the number of U.S. auto shops, driven by consolidation and owners taking retirement.... There are now significantly fewer places to get your car fixed in the U.S. than there were just five years ago. One industry publication found that for every active service bay inside U.S. auto shops there were 225 cars and trucks on the road in 2016. Now there are 246 vehicles per bay.
Pandemic supply-chain jams for computer chips and auto parts, and a nationwide labor shortage of car technicians, have worsened the problem. Cars took an average of 2.1 days longer to repair in 2021 than in 2019, according to CCC Intelligent Solutions, which sells software to automotive and insurance agencies, nearly 11 days in all. Industry experts say the problem will only get worse. "In 10 years, I see a lot fewer shops, and I see a lot more people looking for shops," says Rick White, who coaches auto repair shop owners through his company, 180biz. An industry survey taken late last year found 96 percent of shops reporting delays, with an average scheduling backlog of 3.4 weeks, compared to 1.7 weeks in late 2019....
Some brands of vehicle can only be calibrated with specialized and expensive tools.... In all, it can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars to acquire the tools and make the shop adjustments to repair just a few car makes. That's before the cost of training workers to use those tools, with shops paying thousands each year to keep their staff certified to fix specific cars. Investing for the future, then, can set shop owners back by millions.
Wired interviewed the former owner of a collision repair shop. Their assessment? Shop owners are just "fed up... we went from a very simple industry to a very complex industry."
"Less talked about are the consequences of computerized cars at the auto shop." Fixing complex vehicles requires increasingly expert and expensive knowledge, and tools that are in limited supply.... [T]he upshot can be that it takes longer to get your car fixed.
The trend is worsened by an ongoing decline in the number of U.S. auto shops, driven by consolidation and owners taking retirement.... There are now significantly fewer places to get your car fixed in the U.S. than there were just five years ago. One industry publication found that for every active service bay inside U.S. auto shops there were 225 cars and trucks on the road in 2016. Now there are 246 vehicles per bay.
Pandemic supply-chain jams for computer chips and auto parts, and a nationwide labor shortage of car technicians, have worsened the problem. Cars took an average of 2.1 days longer to repair in 2021 than in 2019, according to CCC Intelligent Solutions, which sells software to automotive and insurance agencies, nearly 11 days in all. Industry experts say the problem will only get worse. "In 10 years, I see a lot fewer shops, and I see a lot more people looking for shops," says Rick White, who coaches auto repair shop owners through his company, 180biz. An industry survey taken late last year found 96 percent of shops reporting delays, with an average scheduling backlog of 3.4 weeks, compared to 1.7 weeks in late 2019....
Some brands of vehicle can only be calibrated with specialized and expensive tools.... In all, it can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars to acquire the tools and make the shop adjustments to repair just a few car makes. That's before the cost of training workers to use those tools, with shops paying thousands each year to keep their staff certified to fix specific cars. Investing for the future, then, can set shop owners back by millions.
Wired interviewed the former owner of a collision repair shop. Their assessment? Shop owners are just "fed up... we went from a very simple industry to a very complex industry."
March (Score:4, Interesting)
I called a place on Friday to get an estimate.
They are currently scheduling ESTIMATES for MARCH 2023. God only knows how long it would take them to actually fix a car.
But it turned out they only do insurance work and had no interest in doing the work I need done. Same with two other shops I called.
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March 2023 is pretty good. I called to make an appointment with the dentist for a cavity, and they said they were all booked up until MAY 2023.
Reminds me of old joke about Soviet Russia. In Soviet Russia, a man goes to buy a car. He goes to the dealership and asks for a car, to which the owner responds:
"You know there is a 10 year waiting list, right?"
The man then answers, "OK," and after some time he agrees to buy a car.
So he pays for the car in advance, and just before he leaves he asks the owner, "Can I
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The auto body shop in my town has a (large) lot that is absolutely packed with cars awaiting work. And they are parking some of them on the street. Car parts might be designed to last the life of the vehicle. Or until they meet a tree, thanks to an incompetent driver.
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"Or until they meet a tree, thanks to an incompetent driver."
Self-breaking cars don't hit trees.
It's just like after the introduction of the ABS, newer cars didn't hit things, older cars hit them in the back.
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"Or until they meet a tree, thanks to an incompetent driver."
Self-breaking cars don't hit trees.
It's just like after the introduction of the ABS, newer cars didn't hit things, older cars hit them in the back.
If only this were true. It only make people feel they are better drivers than they really are.
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High tech cars are smarter at avoiding accidents, self-repairable, and have components that are better suited to last the lifetime of the vehicle.
Huh? The more high tech gizmos in a vehicle, the more things there are to go wrong. Ask anyone who has a long-in-the-tooth Tesla, everything in those cars starts getting wonky, even the door handles.
What's happening here are market forces that will lead to cars being more expensive to repair. Ultimately, that means less people with lower incomes will own cars if the trend continues. People who have decent incomes and excellent credit? They don't have to worry about any of this, because they'll just lea
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The more high tech gizmos in a vehicle, the more things there are to go wrong.
Except that semiconductors are way more reliable than mechanical components.
Ask anyone who has a long-in-the-tooth Tesla
I have a 2015 Tesla. Other than replacing the tires and the windshield wipers, it's had no problems.
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"(Oh, that's right, almost no one in a "snow and ice" area buys a Tesla "
Norway and Sweden beg to differ.
Their parking spaces already had power sockets to heat the oil of ICE cars, those are not really suited for cold climates.
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You know these are the ones with ten thousand dollars of fancy-ass whiz-bang sensors designed to replace basic operator competence in them, that require ten thousand dollars of tools to recalibrate if you replace the (insert once-trivial component here), right?
You may be able to work inside the engine bay, but God help you if a new car's fender gets tapped, or a big-rig throws up a rock that chips your windshield. Now you have to go beg the stealership to take tho
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Nah, windows are covered by the comprehensive part of your coverage. Mines $100 per incident, despite the fact that the window is a $750 dealership only part and needs calibration.
Seriously though, if you have a high comprehensive, get quotes on a much lower one and you'll be surprised how little your insurance goes up.
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High tech cars are ... self-repairable ...
Two puffs, then pass. Sounds like you're having trouble with that last part.
Re: March (Score:4, Insightful)
This is with every industry it seems these days. That being said, hopefully it kills auto-repair shops. High tech cars are smarter at avoiding accidents, self-repairable, and have components that are better suited to last the lifetime of the vehicle. Auto-repair shops are necessary in so much as cars frequently break. If we get less auto-repair shops because vehicles fail less, that is an absolute good thing.
I'd love to come back to this comment in a decade when the only place in town to fix your broken self-repairing car is the stealership, who is free to charge you whatever the hell they feel like because competition is quite illegal as per the manufacturers warranty, in order to fix the blinky-blinky red flashy-flashy light on the dashboard that was sent OTA via a "maintenance plan" you were signed up for.
Naturally you as the consumer have no fucking idea what blinky-blinky red flashy-flashy means other than it's preventing you from putting the car in motion to anywhere other than THE repair shop. Oh well. Must be for your safety. Just follow along, citizen.
Don't worry though. Just like cutting cable turned into multiple subscription services just to watch NFL football, I'm certain you're right with the assumption that simpler means cheaper for the consumer. Somehow.
No, of course they won't try and issue you a new car as the self-repairing fix at their convenience. Pfft..Why would they do that? I mean hell, you could just threaten to take your self-repairing broken car home and fix it yourself...or take it to someone else, right?
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Probably because you're asking for an estimate. My local garage is pretty busy and can get scheduled within a week or so.
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You probably went to a dealership. Independent mechanics, or chains like Goodyear or Firestone, are much quicker. Most repairs are turned around that same day. Major repairs like replacing a transmission might take a week or so.
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Cars are getting expensive to fix. Specialist diagnostic equipment is needed to find the fault, then the whole module has to be replaced, and finally the whole thing reprogrammed. The mechanic needs to be trained how to do all that.
Insurance will just pay whatever it costs, they have to. Customers looking for repairs will balk at the cost and waste the repair shop's time. Thus insurance gets prioritized.
Been Headed This Way (Score:5, Interesting)
By design, manufacturer's are steering as much repair traffic as possible to their flagship dealers.
The Ford House, Chevy Dealer, and Toyota dealership will be equipped to repair these newer vehicles, albeit with longer and longer waiting periods. Independent shops will struggle to keep up.
Re: Been Headed This Way (Score:2)
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Im thinking with the proliferation of EVs or hybrids that are still electric propulsion, the repairs will be more software.
Absolutely. There will be fewer and fewer repairs a shade tree mechanic can manage, and a shit ton of repairs that'll need a $25k diagnostic tool.
Re: Been Headed This Way (Score:2)
The high price is a policy issue though. Most advanced oem diagnosis tools I've seen are PC based. I've used Toyota Tech stream with a knockoff adapter and "aquired" software. The fact I was able to do that shows the price is often artificial, it's just software these days.
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Yes. This is just one more reason that we need right-to-repair legislation.
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Either that, or it's a DOP (Dealer Only Part) that costs several times what it should. As an example, several decades ago, I was trying to keep an old Datsun running because I couldn't afford to replace it. Once, I had to replace a small hose, about 7" long, and curved. Tu
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I have seen this outside of vehicles as well. For example, a normal fuse with two small prongs soldered on the sides. Because this was a DOP, they wouldn't sell them, and demanded an entire expensive appliance be replaced. A quick desolder and solder later, and the prongs were on a new fuse, which was exactly the amperage/voltage of the old, and things have been running ever since.
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Yeah, I'm having to replace the calipers on my truck right now (they're 15 years old) because of basically environmental degradation (I mostly highway drove, then needs changed with COVID, so truck sat parked for a while, but the highway driving is why they weren't worn enough to replace earlier).
Even if you remove all the engine and drivetrain repairs, you're still going to have windshields - which these days is more high tech because you need to recalibrate the sensors attached to them.
You're still going
Re: Been Headed This Way (Score:5, Interesting)
I drive several 20 year old cars (because that was the objective peak in terms of design and driver engagement, okay) and in my experience the actual drivetrain is usually the least of your problems. Engines do need maintenance but the regular stuff is pretty cheap and easy. You can have catastrophic internal failure but it's pretty rare, who throws a rod on a stock engine nowadays?
The only drivetrain issue I've had was a bad bearing in a gearbox. EVs still have those: https://youtu.be/3Bab6CttkEY?t... [youtu.be] and will have to deal with more torque and RPMs so good luck.
If you have winters, the rust will get you. Then all the accessories, AC, cooling system (which exists on EVs btw), brakes, suspension, bushings, blah blah. Hell, the last thing I had to fix was windshield washer pump. EVs do simplify things but I honestly don't think it's that much.
Fully agreed about computer diagnostics though. As long as it's open and available to normal people, it's amazing. Oh, it thinks XYZ sensor is out of range? Well let's see the live data from it, if it's not there, check the wire continuity, if it's fine, replace the sensor. Ta-da. Simplified but if you have a general understanding of how the system is supposed to work, it's awesome.
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What would be nice is if vehicles could allow access to this without needing a special tool. Where one could just go into a diagnostic mode, see that some bearing sensor is inoperable, perhaps order it and replace it, or at least maybe see how much parts and labor cost. Part numbers would be nice.
It isn't like most new vehicles have those huge screens for nothing.
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This is where I like to call BS. Right now there is less wear and tear. Just like when the Model T came out there was not much wear and tear as well. However, as time progresses there will be more wear and tear because of the way that we will be using the vehicle. And there will be more wear and tear on the vehicle because more efficient and cheaper parts will be used. That is only natural.
Today cars are nearly indestructible, if they build it to be... Otherwise it is there to make money.
https://topgear.f [fandom.com]
Re: Been Headed This Way (Score:2)
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"Suspension, brakes, tires, these will remain in demand."
Brakes not so much, because the electric ones rarely use them.
Re: Been Headed This Way (Score:2)
EVs Much Simpler, Don't Require Much Maintenance (Score:4, Informative)
I've owned EVs for the past 6 years. The only time I take them to the shop is once per year. That's to have them rotate the tires, replace the windshield fluid, and give the car a once-over. The once-over arguably isn't necessary. I'm in and out in a short amount of time. I barely pay anything for maintenance.
All the places like Jiffy Lube that focus on getting drivers to come in for an oil change are going to go out of business in ~13 years when the entire industry switches to EVs. Same goes with the businesses that focus on routine engine maintenance. If no one's paying to replace timing belts because EVs don't have timing belts, that means a whole lot of work for mechanics is going to simply disappear.
If you know anyone who focuses on this kind of work, convince them to start retraining now for new work. Those jobs are going away. They're not coming back. For example, move to auto repair. People still get into accidents. Well, for now while people still drive the cars.
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There will be a few new jobs though. Windscreen replacements used to be cheap on insurance, but now many cars have a camera attached to the windscreen that needs to be removed, attached to the new one and then recalibrated. Takes more time and special tools are needed for calibration.
There will be some new jobs in battery recycling and repair. Often "failed" batteries are just one bad cell, although for simplicity entire modules (groups of cells with a dedicated BMS, usually one big serial string) tend to g
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Electrical systems are far more reliable than mechanical systems.
They are truly not. Yes, they require less maintenance but they do fail in a number of ways. Failed connectors, dried out capacitors, failed fans are just some of the ways that immediately comes to mind. Then inevitably seals fail and water gets into something. Rebuilding control modules for cars is as of much of an industry as rebuilding engines.
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As 2035 rolls around you will see those countries backing off those laws. Much as they are backing off the laws that mandated nuclear reactor shutdowns.
caveat: unless some amazing new battery tech is invented and commercialized that is clearly more practical and economic and environmentally friendly than ICE. time is already running short for that though.
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...dealership will be equipped to repair these newer vehicles, albeit with longer and longer waiting periods.
And I'm just curious...what exactly is the acceptable wait time to get a broken car back on the road again, according to the only repair shop in town? What exactly does customer satisfaction look like when the only acceptable answer becomes just buy a new car?
Yes. Of course that is a stealerships ultimate goal here. Watch and see how it works when repair times readily exceed the number of excuses you can give your boss about getting to work on time. Watch and see stealerships actually limit the number
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Why would a dealership reduce the number of service bays? That's where most of their profits come from. [edmunds.com]
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Why would a dealership reduce the number of service bays? That's where most of their profits come from. [edmunds.com]
Not really a matter of reducing as much as it is a matter of accommodating demand reasonably. When XYZ dealer becomes the only repair shop for XYZ cars in town, I'd imagine the repair line can get obscenely long. Meanwhile, XYZ fails to give a shit about providing prompt service because...where else you gonna go?
Those who put themselves in the Fuck-You-Pay-Me crowd, know how they got there. And they'll move at whatever speed they want to move at.
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Pay for the handle and the razer. And the shaving cream, and water...
If you can charge mechanics for specialized required tools then you either drive more business to your dealers, or you get money from 3rd party repairs. Win win.
Does "Right to Repair" need to specify "All software to repair or diagnose must be free after purchase or rental"? I mean the software doesn't have a cost to duplicate.
Yes, if a shared server is truly required then a very minimal fee for time used makes sense (cloud hosts or VM'
Only going to get worse (Score:5, Interesting)
This has been happening for decades now. Cars used to actually be way less reliable than today. Cars also needed "tune ups" where the mechanic would adjust your carburetor and ignition timings since that shit was manual. Once EFI and electronic ignitions came along the tuneup became replace your spark plugs and change some fluids, many of which now last way longer than they did then as well.
EVs will only make this worse with less fluids, less parts and even the brakes last longer, but there will be less independent "real shops" left, they will become more specialized. tires though will always be a shop thing.
I do support legislation that would require manufacturers to sell repair tools and parts with equal priority and cost to any shop or customer themselves. They should not get to hoard the ability to repair.
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EVs will only make this worse with less fluids, less parts and even the brakes last longer
Sadly, no, brakes do not last longer in an EV. Okay, maybe brake PADS last longer, but the braking system overall in an EV is usually way more complicated than traditional non-regenerative braking systems. That added complexity means more room for your braking system to fail in an EV (pads aside).
In fact, failing brakes [flipthefleet.org] is probably one of the primary reasons Nissan Leafs end up smashed in the front so often.
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Pads are the regular maintenance item that are consistent revenue for repair shops. Even if the system is more complex repairs are not totally consistent revenue streams for repair shopes.
Your problem the article affects one early model of EV manufactered in a period of 6-10 years ago, hardly indicitive of a system problem with EV brake systems.
Fact is even with the added complexity to cars they have in fact gotten more reliable than they were in the 80's and 90's. EV's even with a more complex brake syst
Re: Only going to get worse (Score:2)
Again, early model hybrid has issues. Youd have to show these failures are also in the early period the car. There are cruises with easy 100 and probably 200k miles today if not more. Are their brakes failing at 50k or 200k? Big difference and craigslist is not a data point.
This stuff is new but not cutting edge exactly. Why would we not think they would improve over time like everything else?
Re:Only going to get worse (Score:5, Informative)
That is interesting, and I may have experienced this on my Nissan Leaf, but it's not a systemic failure of EV brakes.
Nissan (and perhaps other manufacturers) have chosen to make driving an EV feel like driving an automatic. Thus, when you press lightly on the brake pedal, the brakes are not applied: instead the transmission goes into regeneration mode. IMHO, any mechanism that actively stops the brakes being applied when you press on the pedal is an inherently unsafe design.
Tesla, on the other hand has chosen not to do this. You simply lift off the accelerator to get regenerative braking and their brake systems never stop the pedal from causing the brakes to be applied.
There are many Teslas that have done of 300,000 miles and the maintenance logged. Brake system failure isn't listed on any of them.
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Nissan Leafs also have regen when you lift off the accelerator. They go further than Tesla does, implementing a "one pedal mode" that will actually apply the brakes when you lift off the accelerator, and bring the car to a complete stop. As long as you don't need to brake really hard you can drive without touching the brake pedal.
Even the original Leafs didn't just have a simple "first 10% of the pedal is only regen" system. The car measured the amount of braking force and regen when deciding when and how m
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Nissan Leafs also have regen when you lift off the accelerator.
In my 2016, only if you engage "B" mode (as opposed to "D").
Brake failure isn't common on Leafs, but can happen if they aren't inspected every year.
I experienced brake failure when my 12V battery was failing. It's possible that had I pressed harder on the brake pedal, the brakes would have been applied, but given that lots of "brake failures" are really someone pressing on the wrong pedal, rather than pressing harder, I chose to put my left foot on the parking brake pedal.
I'll quote from this discussion [mynissanleaf.com]:
"Low 12V battery voltage is a well known source of seriously dangerous braking problems in
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That's because the leaf uses a electric brake booster and the pump cuts out at low 12v and you're stuck suddenly trying to cram both feet down on a pedal with poor mechanical advantage.
Iirc it's a hydraulic pump, but most turbo cars have to use a vacuum pump because intake pressure is usually positive. My FIAT had a vacuum pump failure and damn was that scary. Same behavior.
Older, non turbo and electric cars, the transmission will spin the engine over as you decelerate, maintaining vacuum even if 12v fails.
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That's not right, even in D mode there was regen braking when you left off the peddle. The car never coasts unless you put it in N.
12V battery failure can affect the power brakes, yes. However there is a mechanical linkage there. If you press hard on the pedal you will find it goes a lot further than you expect, really deep. At a certain point the brakes are mechanically forced on. I'd say it's probably later than ideal given how far you have to go, but it's also not an issue specific to the Leaf as many ca
Re: Only going to get worse (Score:2)
The problem you linked has to do with the electronic brake boost, and that is not specific to EVs.
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Man, the good old days when you could fix your transportation with a mallet and maybe a wood plane. Then some asshole started putting iron bands on the wheels and now you have to be a blacksmith.
And don't get me started on computers. You used to be able to fix your own with basically the same tools. Maybe a bit of varnish to make things nice. Now it's all electric crap.
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The shop I went to was multigenerational. The father knew how to diagnose and fix cars. I had an old car. My friend had his alpha fixed there. The father would also tinker with a car for a day and only charge a few hundred dollars.
The son has and knows his to use the diagnosis tool which is not always reliable, but when a part is $100 and shop time is $200 an hour, I would rather just get the part installed and
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"This has been happening for decades now. Cars used to actually be way less reliable than today."
And tires.
I had my last flat in 85.
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The auto manufacturers are definitely hoarding the ability to repair. They do their best to keep any diagnostic code a deep dark secret unless its mandated by law. When more of the codes from the diagnostic port were mandated to be disclosed, they made some of them telematics only to slip through a loophole in the law. They fought tooth and nail with a nasty FUD campaign when Massachusetts proposed to mandate opening the telematics. Even the need for a scan tool is an effort to block repair. Otherwise, why
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They'll never warn you that you'll fail emissions, because if you become aware that you're emitting excessively, you're supposed to stop driving that vehicle. It would be nice if the car got a picture of the asshole that stole your catalytic converter, though.
More expensive for no gain (Score:4, Interesting)
Wired interviewed the former owner of a collision repair shop. Their assessment? Shop owners are just "fed up... we went from a very simple industry to a very complex industry."
Considering the cost to consumers, all this tech has done little for the user. Electronic fuel injection and anti-lock brakes are good, but the tire pressure tech is essentially worthless considering the number of vehicles I see every week with visibly low air in tires. Clearly these people are neither looking at/responding to the low pressure icon on their dash nor bothering to look at their tires every once in a while, let alone check the air pressure every month.
Those cameras on vehicles ain't going to repair themselves when they get broken or their operation fails. How much is that going to cost to fix? If you don't fix it, will your vehicle pass inspection?
Touch screens? Sure, why not force the driver to take their eyes off the road and look about for that quarter inch square spot they have to press to get to the first level of environmental controls so they can take more time trying to adjust the heat or a/c rather than a simple button or knob.
Remember how you could replace your own headlight bulb for a buck or so? Not any longer. Expect to pay orders of magnitude more for a bulb. Assuming you're able to replace it considering how difficult manufacturers are making it to do so.
Someone plow into you despite all that "safety"? Expect more cars to be classified as totaled by insurers because they don't want to pay the cost of physically repairing the vehicle along with all the sensors which could need replaced as well.
In the end, it's the consumer which pays the costs for all this "tech", and for what they pay, the payback is negligible if not negative.
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Electronic fuel injection and anti-lock brakes are good, but the tire pressure tech is essentially worthless considering the number of vehicles I see every week with visibly low air in tires. Clearly these people are neither looking at/responding to the low pressure icon on their dash nor bothering to look at their tires every once in a while, let alone check the air pressure every month.
Or the low air tires are in the majority of cars that are older than when such systems were required and/or used sensors that were massively expensive to replace and just skipped replacing the sensors once their batteries died. The fact that you see some underinflated tires is indicative that such systems provide value, since they are certainly indicating to at least some drivers.
Those cameras on vehicles ain't going to repair themselves when they get broken or their operation fails. How much is that going to cost to fix? If you don't fix it, will your vehicle pass inspection?
At least the backup cameras are known to mitigate people getting hit by cars backing up. If it breaks, then you are back to where
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You'll get much worse gas mileage and every part of the car will require more frequent service. Hope you enjoy replacing the transmission after 75k miles. Right about the same time that you have to start replacing body panels because of the rust. Inevitably, a car in front of you will jam on their brakes. Hope you've kept the recommended 5-second following distance and you're not texting, because there aren't an
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I think you missed OP's point, by a mile.
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Best. Deal. Ever.
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"Touch screens? Sure, why not force the driver to take their eyes off the road and look about for that quarter inch square spot they have to press to get to the first level of environmental controls so they can take more time trying to adjust the heat or a/c rather than a simple button or knob."
Oh my gods I hate this. Just give me things I can feel. My GF recently bought a 2013 car for work under duress, because public transpo here isn't what it should be, and the first thing I did was remove the double din
Makers care nothing for repairs and it shows. (Score:5, Interesting)
Production is all that matters with barely enough longevity for key systems (failed transmissions are common ICE example) to get past warranty. Feature bloat ensures excessive complexity, slow troubleshooting and high repair costs. Customers don't like paying a hundred bucks an hour or more without a prompt fix and blame mechanics.
Auto mechanic careers (unless you specialize, so do that if you must) are a bucket of crabs but higher tech is filtering the low-tech crabs who offered more affordable repairs of simpler systems. Dealing with retail customers is horrid because they assume they're being robbed and most are a dim and savage lot.
The public are not technically clueful enough to understand how ANY auto works even if it were a T Model Ford. Technology is magic to morons so while they'll complain about repair costs it's not more than a passing issue for them when they replace a difficult vehicle.
Anyone skilled and trained and experienced enough to be a truly good mechanic has other choices like industrial maintenance, heavy equipment mech (more money, commercial customers who need that machine to make profit), aircraft mech (I'd enlist again in a heartbeat since fixing fighters is big fun), machinist, controls tech etc. Many of us work on our own vehicles to save gobs of cash and to get what we want but don't open shops because the retail side is such an asspain.
The problem is too complex to address, there is no manufacturer incentive to address it (systems complex to work on may be easy to manufacture), the public don't care to understand (not the same as grumbling) and mechanics/technicians have no leverage to make our jobs suck less. The last vehicles where maintainability was key customer concern were air-cooled Volkswagens. Since then (Germany is such an interesting example) industry leverages CNC and other modern production methods to make overly complex systems highly unfriendly to maintainers.
The owner takes his capital into retirement (Score:2)
That's all well and good but it means even one of the shop hands could get a loan they'd be crushed by the interest (which again, is the point, that shop hand isn't supposed to have his own business, he's supposed to go make $12/hr fixing cars for the dealer
The fallacy of linear interpolation (Score:4, Insightful)
"The couple had one child last month, with the new one born this month now they have two. That means by this time next year they will have 14 kids!"
No, it will not continue to get worse forever. At one point one of more variables will change. It could be more people taking up the job, the pay becoming better (i.e.: higher prices for us regular folks), the cars becoming more reliable and needing less repairs (already happening), or something else we don't have any knowledge about.
And again, even the primary variables mentioned here (number of auto technicians), and (tools availability), don't necessarily have linear declines. They will "plateau".
But, yes, sensational headlines will get more clicks. Let's do that.
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""The couple had one child last month, with the new one born this month now they have two. That means by this time next year they will have 14 kids!"
Put 9 women on the job and you'll have a kid every month.
High Tech should be easier and cheaper (Score:3)
The more intelligence that is built into the car, the easier it should be to figure out the problem and fix it. Technology in cars should be programmed to pinpoint problems and direct the shop to the exact parts and steps needed for the repair.
However, there are a few problems:
- These high tech cars are very rudimentary. The legacy manufacturers don't understand software and their tech systems are extremely "dumb". They haven't invested proper resources in developing good software. They still continue to farm out bits and pieces and there is no integration.
- Then, of course, they don't want you going to just any old shop or DIY so they make it as difficult and obtuse as possible so you'll be forced to go to the dealer who will rip you off for diagnosis (plugging in their computer) and repair parts and labor.
(It shouldn't even require plugging in an external computer. The car should have enough brains to do this on its own and give you a clear message of the problem and the fix. Obfuscation works to the dealers advantage.)
A good example of what should be routine... I have a 22 year old Land Rover. After 200,000 miles, one of the O2 sensors went bad. My insurance company monitors the OBD port (because they charge me by the mile for insurance since I don't drive it much). I got an email from the insurance company as soon as the "check engine" light went on that this particular O2 sensor was bad. I ordered a replacement (a common inexpensive part) and installed it myself (a ten minute job). All auto repair should be this easy.
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I ordered a replacement (a common inexpensive part) and installed it myself (a ten minute job).
You got lucky. I had a spring snap on my car and took it into a shop, came back in the afternoon and was impressed by the low cost of the work. The answer I got was "Your spring was easy, that Audi over there needs an O2 sensor replaced and to get to it you need to dismantle half of the engine bay, that will be 400EUR to replace a 40EUR part."
I've also owned a car where the timing belt replacement cost me $50 in labour, and another where it cost $300. It's a real crapshoot as to how repairable cars are. The
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Volvo puts the hydraulics for the throw out bearing inside the bellhousing. You have to pull the transmission to replace a leaking cylinder. And the cylinder is part of the bearing assembly, so the part is idiotically expensive.
Glad I don't own any volvos anymore.
My wife's Honda Fit, they don't sell the AC compressor clutch assembly separately. It's all riveted together. The clutch coil went bad in hers, and it was a whole compressor. Some bullshit.
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Some cars...and by that I mean a Tesla...already do this. You can get on the phone with Tesla support (THAT part is a pain) and they can have the car feed logs down to the minute of an error and see what system threw the error and the nature of the error. Now they can't always DO something about it remotely besides suggesting a reboot, but at least they CAN tell you that, yes, XXX component is not working and you'll have to take it in to have that component fixed.
Tesla might have problems with QC, but unlik
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I haven't had many problems with my Tesla but I am very impressed with the software. It reports problems and Tesla techs can do a deep dive into the data. One problem I had was that my 12v battery started to fail after 6 years. I got a warning on a screen and in the app that it would need to be replaced. Scheduled it for replacement before it failed. (BTW, the cost of the replacement battery and installation was very reasonable... less than my Land Rover 12v replacement.)
Another problem was with the passen
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"The more intelligence that is built into the car, the easier it should be to figure out the problem and fix it. Technology in cars should be programmed to pinpoint problems and direct the shop to the exact parts and steps needed for the repair."
Soon Teslas who detect a problem will arrange for an appointment and drive there themselves during your downtime. :-)
Maybe. Maybe not. (Score:3)
We've been replacing mechanical/hydraulic/pneumatic analog control systems in engines for decades. I saw a picture of an automatic transmission control plate a few weeks ago: a few square feet of channels and valves, all replaced by a transmission computer, sensors, and solenoids today. If there's a problem in the transmission, you're off to a laptop not the car lift.
At the same time, all that computer control enabled a zillion more features like emission control, variable timing, and dynamic suspension. All that added work as fast as work went away.
If you want more insight into this, watch Project Binky [youtube.com]. It's a pair of completely mental blokes in Shropshire, England who are, well, let's just say extensively customizing a Mini. Richard goes into great detail about how the engine control unit works and all the things it controls. I don't think we've reduced the amount work involved compared to adjusting the timing on distributors.
Now where EVs are supposed to be better is a battery/charger/electric motor/regenerative brakes ought to be simpler and more reliable than their IC counterparts. Things like suspension, windows, and body work aren't going to not need work so I don't think mechanics are going out of business any time soon.
The move from independents to dealerships is also a very long term trend. Just look at how the used car market has changed. My impression is far fewer cars go through individuals or third parties and far more through dealers.
Shops are killing themselves (Score:5, Interesting)
I had a busted A/C condenser on my BMW i3 a few years ago (rock). Asked 4 independent BMW-focused shops to fix it. They all declined with "not prepared to work on an EV". (even though nothing with the EV part of it was busted... just the AC).
BMW dealership wanted $2200 to fix it. I ended up doing it myself for $300 in parts and a few hours of work.
The 3rd party shops could have made a killing charging $1,500.. instead the only solution for 99% of people was to get it fixed directly at BMW.
You gotta be flexible, or be prepared to close up shop.
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This may be specific to BMW, but the shop has to be certified by BMW to work on the electric models, otherwise they are forbidden to do so, and could be punished by being denied dealer-only parts (for any vehicles). This certification is far from free, and the benefit probably isn't there for a lot of independent shops.
change is hard (Score:2)
The old timers at my local repair shop know how to fix mechanical problems. They can diagnose and replace simple sensor issues. But if you have some complex electrical or software (or combination) problem then they refer you to the dealer. They won't upgrade the software in my car because it ties up their machine for too long and bricks the car if it something goes wrong during the hours long process.
The auto industry needs a new generation of people that are trained differently and those people need better
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Meanwhile, all the modern kids want to be Youtube superstars and not car mechanics.
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I worked on cars (and everything else) with my Dad as a kid. Up until I was about 16 or 17 I wanted to be an auto mechanic, I loved it. At 16 I got my first job at a specialty repair shop, most of our work was actually for other repair shops. I got to see the automotive industry from the inside and didn't like what I saw - a lot of people working hard and just getting by, old timers with beat up bodies. I don't know any modern kids that want to work at all, I was dying to be self-sufficient and free from m
I met a mechanic (Score:3)
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You need a several thousand dollar scanner, but that will let you deal with anything that's out of warranty. It only takes two or three years for pretty much everything to make it into the snap-on scanners or whatever. Yeah they're expensive, but they do a lot. They won't do literally everything, but they will do everything you're likely to need often. It takes a real dealer scan tool or a very close facsimile to do some things, like enable optional equipment on a modern vehicle, but troubleshooting is typi
Remember the good 'ol days? (Score:2)
I am old enough to remember back when transmissions were designed not to last longer than a certain mileage in the interests of securing a future market for parts and service. Back then a car with 40,000 miles on the odometer was pretty much regard as junk by nearly everyone and it was time to get a new one. Odometers only had 5 wheels to the left of the decimal point.
Exceptions: Volvo box cars and Checker cabs.
Today few people would consider buying a passenger car in the mid range that wouldn't ha
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my honda lasted 20 years and that guy was built in the early 2000's. i only replaced it cause somebody totaled it, otherwise i would have driven it another 20.
only ever needed wear-out parts replaced, i.e. brakes, plugs, bushings, struts, etc.
my new car, i feel like i could have welded the hood shut the day i bought it and still get 3-4 years of driving out of it without an issue.
i don't think people understand how crazy reliable even ICE cars have gotten over the years
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my honda lasted 20 years and that guy was built in the early 2000's.
Yeah I knew a guy with a 4WD honda like that. He drove it well 300,000 miles and it stank like a oil can with musty drapes in it. Then he rebuilt the engine himself which extended its life and also the smell.
Honda had a great streak there starting in the '80s in spite of a few well known problems -- such as the timing belt had a tendency to break at about 50K miles in the Civic. It earned them a market position that pretty much crushed the U.S. automakers.
Some mechanics are thriving (Score:2)
Those who keep up with technology are doing just fine. I have no problem getting my vehicles fixed at independent shops or chains like Goodyear or Firestone. Diagnostic codes have made their jobs easier, not harder. Also, many parts aren't affected by new technologies like EVs. There will always be a need for brake replacements or A/C repairs.
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Everybody was panicked about EFI, years ago...now it's trivial for a halfway decent mechanic... CAN was the next boogeyman...but people have wrapped their heads around that. There will probably always be a bit of fear, and lag, as people get up to speed...but "good" mechanics figure things out...since "figuring things out" is a big part of their job. Good mechanics are also quite good at circumventing things...
That being said...sure, there are a lot of lazy, dumb, mechanics out there that will make zero
Some shops getting more money for less work (Score:2)
These days, many shops charge you $100 or more to read the ODB diagnostic codes--the same codes any car parts store will read for you for free, or you can buy your own code reader for $25 on Amazon. After charging you to read the codes, they essentially Google what parts to replace, whether the parts need replacing or not.
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You can pull up to your local auto parts shop and borrow their code reader for a few minutes (you leave a deposit but you get it back). They'd rather do this than have people buy one, open the package, use it once, and then return it.
No. Cars no longer require constant repairs. (Score:2)
On the other hand when something does go wrong, most cars are not designed for an easy quick part replacement. And this is not because 'computers' but because it is computer designed with no regards to access for replacing parts.
Repair shops should be operating as maintenance shops, but that isn't w
OH NO! (Score:2)
one of the skeeviest, sketchiest, dirtiest, most corrupt industries on Earth is being phased out? the horror...
Sophisticated tools (Score:2)
They will, if they don't adapt.... (Score:2)
I don't feel very sorry for the auto repair places, really. They should have seen the writing on the wall here that EVs were coming and would require new skill-sets to work on them. The good news is, they're generally easier to repair than traditional gasoline or diesel powered vehicles. (You don't even have a traditional transmission to worry about anymore - which next to an engine itself, is the most expensive component you can have a failure on.)
In a few cases, the cooling system is a lot more complex (
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One weekend project on my list is opening up my dash on my chevy equinox and removing the connection to the 'on-star' thing from the console screen so that this gps connected spy-card can't send my geolocation to Chevrolet 24x7 to be logged and searched by whatever 3 letter agency wants to profile me or fine me for violating the next COVID lockdown. Also I would like to install a dashboard switch that can clear the memory of the 'black box' which will involve finding it. I was thinking of designing a cir
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So basically, you have to let them spy on you or they'll fscking KILL YOU.
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Correct and I do but the equipment to do more than swap parts has changed and isn't cheap. Also it's far from being just an engine issue. Transmission failures are common because they're designed with the absolute minimum robustness (plastic pistons instead of metal and generally every part for which there is an aftermarket upgrade). Lighting, climate control etc etc systems are now much more complex.
I've worked on vehicles with wings and wheels since the 1970s. A "real" mechanic can work on anything. We ca
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> No itâ(TM)s the same century old combustion engine except now thereâ(TM)s just sensors everywhere
And if any of those sensors fucks up you need the diagnostic tools to find out exactly what it is. Yes, all the things you mentioned are easy maintenance - but none of them are actually diagnostic.
By way or example; After an otherwise routine self-repair my last car came up with a check-engine light. I needed buy a scan tool to figure out what the code was. P0101 - MAF sensor or general engine per
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Nope, but soon a typical car owner won't have an ICEV anyway. And there will be a diagnostic code that tells them that a motor driver has failed, or what have you. Either the parts will be accessible or they won't. If they are, it will be easy to replace them if you follow the battery isolation procedures, but you might not be allowed to by DRM.
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There are only 20 moving parts in an electric vehicle versus the 2,000+ components in a traditional car.
Re: we shall uod be more worried about the planet (Score:2)
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The planet is at no risk from human activity.
Humans will become extinct regardless of what they do or don't do. This will certainly happen long, long, long before the planet Earth no longer exists as a single uniquely identifiable entity.
Within the blink of an eye (a few tens of millions years in geological time) after human extinction there will be very little about the Earth that will reflect that humans ever existed on it. Those few indicators that humans once inhabited the Earth will be of little intere