Science

N6 (Hexanitrogen) Synthesized for the First Time - Twice As Energy Dense As TNT (nature.com) 68

Slashdot reader ffkom writes: The air around you mostly consists of nitrogen [78%]. And in that air exist happy little monogamous pairs of two nitrogen atoms per molecule, also known as N2. Researchers from the University of Giessen, Germany, recently managed to synthesize N6 molecules, "the first, to our knowledge, experimentally realized neutral molecular nitrogen allotrope beyond N2 that exhibits unexpected stability."

And these appear to be pretty angry little molecules, as they detonate at more than twice the energy density than good old TNT:

A kiloton of N6 is 1.19×10**7mol, which can release an energy of 2.20×109kcal (9.21terajoules) based on the enthalpy. Considering that the standard kiloton TNT equivalent is 4.184terajoules, N6 can release 2.2 times the energy of TNT of the same weight. On the basis of the documented TNT equivalent based on weight for HMX (1.15) and RDX (1.15), N6 can release 1.9 times the energy of HMX or RDX with the same weight.

In interviews the researchers contemplated the possibility of using N6 as rocket fuel, given its superior energy density and that its reaction product is just N2, so basically air, but no smoke, no CO2 or other potentially harmful substances.

Space

Early Universe's 'Little Red Dots' May Be Black Hole Stars (science.org) 16

After it began "peering into the distant universe" in 2022, NASA's James Webb Space Telescope "has discovered a rash of 'little red dots'," reports Science magazine. There's "hundreds of them, shining within the first billion years of the 13.8-billion-year-old universe, so small and red that they defied conventional explanation."

"Only in the past few months has a picture begun to emerge. The little red dots, astronomers say, may be an entirely new type of object: a colossal ball of bright, hot gas, larger than the Solar System, powered not by nuclear fusion, but by a black hole..." The objects, which some astronomers are calling "black hole stars," could be a missing link in the evolution of galaxies and help explain the rapid growth of supermassive black holes that lie at their hearts. "The big breakthrough of the past 6 months is actually the realization that we can throw out all these other models we've been playing with before," says astronomer Anna de Graaff of the Max Planck Institute for Astronomy... JWST couldn't resolve the dots into a recognizable shape, which meant they must have been tiny — less than 2% of the diameter of the Milky Way. "It was a mystery ... as to why they were so spatially compact," says Caitlin Casey of the University of Texas at Austin. An impossibly dense packing of stars would be needed to explain their brightness. "I was excited," Casey says...

For Mitch Begelman, a theoretical astrophysicist at the University of Colorado Boulder, the observations are a vindication. Earlier this month, he and a colleague posted a preprint on arXiv reviving a scenario for the formation of hypothetical "quasi-stars" that he and others had proposed 20 years ago. The first generation of stars, they calculated, could have grown to colossal size in the early universe, which was made up almost entirely of hydrogen, the raw material of stars. When a giant star ran out of fuel, they said, its core would have collapsed into a black hole, but the outer envelope of hydrogen was so dense it survived the blast, enclosing the newborn black hole. As the black hole chewed at its shroud of gas, the entire system glowed as a quasi-star larger than the Solar System. "That's what the quasi-star envelope is doing, it's force-feeding the black hole by pushing matter into it," Begelman says.

Given how common little red dots appear to be in the early universe, theorists are beginning to wonder whether this giant-ball-of-gas phase is an essential part of black hole growth and the evolution of galaxies. "We're probably looking at kind of a new phase of black hole growth that we didn't know about before," de Graaff says.

"If the red dots do turn out to be black hole stars, it will be precisely the sort of breakthrough expected from JWST — and the kind of discovery astronomers live for."

Thanks to Slashdot reader sciencehabit for sharing the news.
NASA

For Sale: a 1990 Airstream Trailer/NASA Command Vehicle for Space Shuttle Landings (hemmings.com) 30

The vehicle "once led the Space Shuttle down the runway at Edwards Air Force Base," The Drive reported in 2022, noting it was won in an auction for $21,061 (beating 18 other bidders). "I just figured the NASA brand combined with Airsteam hip seemed like a can't lose combination," the buyer says now, in a listing for the vehicle on the on the automotive sales site Hemmings.com asking $199,000..

They're touting it as a priceless marketing/publicity prop — "a once in a lifetime opportunity" to own what was once an "onsite command center complete with communications and atmospheric monitoring... Imagine pulling into Burning Man driving this..." The seller points out it's the only custom-built "Airstream" trailer ever sold by NASA. (The others were crushed, except for one donated to the Kennedy museum.) But for this one "Apparently there was some miscommunication when the vehicle was decommissioned. It should have been offered to museums but the sales team did not know what it was.")

"Has only 8240 miles on it as driven from Ohio to California then around the Edwards base."

The seller apparently first tried listing it on eBay in May for $50,000. ("Reserve not met," says that listing page now. "Very well maintained, minor dings on exterior...")

Thanks to long-time Slashdot reader schwit1 for sharing the news.
Power

Researchers Map Where Solar Energy Delivers the Biggest Climate Payoff (rutgers.edu) 58

A Rutgers-led study using advanced computational modeling reveals that expanding solar power by just 15% could reduce U.S. carbon emissions by over 8.5 million metric tons annually, with the greatest benefits concentrated in specific regions like California, Texas, and the Southwest. The study has been published in Science Advances. From the report: The study quantified both immediate and delayed emissions reductions resulting from added solar generation. For example, the researchers found that in California, a 15% increase in solar power at noon was associated with a reduction of 147.18 metric tons of CO2 in the region in the first hour and 16.08 metric tons eight hours later.

The researchers said their methods provide a more nuanced understanding of system-level impacts from solar expansion than previous studies, pinpointing where the benefits of increased solar energy adoption could best be realized. In some areas, such as California, Florida, the mid-Atlantic, the Midwest, Texas and the Southwest, small increases in solar were estimated to deliver large CO2 reductions, while in others, such as New England, the central U.S., and Tennessee, impacts were found to be minimal -- even at much larger increases in solar generation.

In addition, the researchers said their study demonstrates the significant spillover effects solar adoption has on neighboring regions, highlighting the value of coordinated clean energy efforts. For example, a 15% increase in solar capacity in California was associated with a reduction of 913 and 1,942 metric tons of CO2 emissions per day in the northwest and southwest regions, respectively.
"It was rewarding to see how advanced computational modeling can uncover not just the immediate, but also the delayed and far-reaching spillover effects of solar energy adoption," said the lead author Arpita Biswas, an assistant professor with the Department of Computer Science at the Rutgers School of Arts and Sciences. "From a computer science perspective, this study demonstrates the power of harnessing large-scale, high-resolution energy data to generate actionable insights. For policymakers and investors, it offers a roadmap for targeting solar investments where emissions reductions are most impactful and where solar energy infrastructure can yield the highest returns."
Education

Lying Increases Trust In Science, Study Finds (phys.org) 160

A new paper from Bangor University outlines the "bizarre phenomenon" known as the transparency paradox: that transparency is needed to foster public trust in science, but being transparent about science, medicine and government can also reduce trust. The paper argues that while openness in science is intended to build trust, it can backfire when revealing uncomfortable truths. Philosopher Byron Hyde and author of the study suggests that public trust could be improved not by sugarcoating reality, but by educating people to expect imperfection and understand how science actually works. Phys.org reports: The study revealed that, while transparency about good news increases trust, transparency about bad news, such as conflicts of interest or failed experiments, decreases it. Therefore, one possible solution to the paradox, and a way to increase public trust, is to lie (which Hyde points out is unethical and ultimately unsustainable), by for example making sure bad news is hidden and that there is always only good news to report.

Instead, he suggests that a better way forward would be to tackle the root cause of the problem, which he argues is the public overidealising science. People still overwhelmingly believe in the 'storybook image' of a scientist who makes no mistakes, which creates unrealistic expectations. Hyde is calling for a renewed effort to teach the public about scientific norms, which would be done through science education and communication to eliminate the "naive" view of science as infallible.
"... most people know that global temperatures are rising, but very few people know how we know that," says Hyde. "Not enough people know that science 'infers to the best explanation' and doesn't definitively 'prove' anything. Too many people think that scientists should be free from biases or conflicts of interest when, in fact, neither of these are possible. If we want the public to trust science to the extent that it's trustworthy, we need to make sure they understand it first."

The study has been published in the journal Theory and Society.
Science

India To Penalize Universities With Too Many Retractions (nature.com) 6

India's national university ranking will start penalizing institutions if a sizable number of papers published by their researchers are retracted -- a first for an institutional ranking system. Nature: The move is an attempt by the government to address the country's growing number of retractions due to misconduct. Many retractions correct honest mistakes in the literature, but others arise because of misconduct.

India has had more papers retracted than any country apart from China and the United States, according to an analysis of the public database maintained by Retraction Watch of retractions over the past three decades. But whereas less than 1 paper is retracted for every 1,000 papers published in the United States, more than 3 are retracted for every 1,000 published in China, and the figure is 2 per 1,000 in India. The majority in India and China are withdrawn because of misconduct or research-integrity concerns.

Science

Researchers Develop a Low-Cost Visual Microphone (phys.org) 23

alternative_right shares a report from Phys.org: Researchers have created a microphone that listens with light instead of sound. Unlike traditional microphones, this visual microphone captures tiny vibrations on the surfaces of objects caused by sound waves and turns them into audible signals. In the journal Optics Express, the researchers describe the new approach, which applies single-pixel imaging to sound detection for the first time. Using an optical setup without any expensive components, they demonstrate that the technique can recover sound by using the vibrations on the surfaces of everyday objects such as leaves and pieces of paper. [...]

To demonstrate the new visual microphone, the researchers tested its ability to reconstruct Chinese and English pronunciations of numbers as well as a segment from Beethoven's Fur Elise. They used a paper card and a leaf as vibration targets, placing them 0.5 meters away from the objects while a nearby speaker played the audio. The system was able to successfully reconstruct clear and intelligible audio, with the paper card producing better results than the leaf. Low-frequency sounds (1 kHz) showed slight distortion that improved when a signal processing filter was applied. Tests of the system's data rate showed it produced 4 MB/s, a rate sufficiently low to minimize storage demands and allow for long-term recording.
"Currently, this technology still only exists in the laboratory and can be used in special scenarios where traditional microphones fail to work," said research team leader Xu-Ri Yao from Beijing Institute of Technology in China. "We aim to expand the system into other vibration measurement applications, including human pulse and heart rate detection, leveraging its multifunctional information sensing capabilities."
Medicine

Trump Launching a New Private Health Tracking System With Big Tech's Help 178

fjo3 shares a report from the Associated Press: The Trump administration announced it is launching a new program that will allow Americans to share personal health data and medical records across health systems and apps run by private tech companies, promising that will make it easier to access health records and monitor wellness. More than 60 companies, including major tech companies like Google, Amazon and Apple as well as health care giants like UnitedHealth Group and CVS Health, have agreed to share patient data in the system. The initiative will focus on diabetes and weight management, conversational artificial intelligence that helps patients, and digital tools such as QR codes and apps that register patients for check-ins or track medications.

Officials at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, who will be in charge of maintaining the system, have said patients will need to opt in for the sharing of their medical records and data, which will be kept secure. Those officials said patients will benefit from a system that lets them quickly call up their own records without the hallmark difficulties, such as requiring the use of fax machines to share documents, that have prevented them from doing so in the past.

Popular weight loss and fitness subscription service Noom, which has signed onto the initiative, will be able to pull medical records after the system's expected launch early next year. That might include labs or medical tests that the app could use to develop an AI-driven analysis of what might help users lose weight, CEO Geoff Cook told The Associated Press. Apps and health systems will also have access to their competitors' information, too. Noom would be able to access a person's data from Apple Health, for example. "Right now you have a lot of siloed data," Cook said.
Science

Brazil Deploys Millions of Lab-bred Mosquitoes To Combat Dengue Epidemic (npr.org) 16

Brazil has launched a massive program to release millions of laboratory-bred mosquitoes engineered to carry Wolbachia bacteria, which prevents them from transmitting dengue virus. The initiative aims to protect 140 million Brazilians across 40 municipalities over the next decade.

The approach has already demonstrated significant results in Niteroi, where officials documented a roughly 90% drop in dengue cases when comparing the 10 years prior to the modified mosquitoes' introduction to the five years afterward. Nearly all mosquitoes in the city now carry the Wolbachia bacteria. Cases of chikungunya and Zika also fell by over 96% and 99% respectively.

The World Mosquito Program operates high-tech breeding facilities, including one in Rio de Janeiro that produces mosquitoes by the millions. A new factory in Curitiba will produce 5 billion mosquitoes in its first year. The Wolbachia bacteria, naturally present in roughly half of all insect species, creates conditions where dengue virus cannot replicate inside mosquitoes, effectively breaking the transmission cycle when these modified insects bite humans.
Medicine

World's 'Oldest Baby' Born From Embryo Frozen in 1994 (theguardian.com) 35

The world's "oldest baby" has been born in the US from an embryo that was frozen in 1994, it has been reported. The Guardian: Thaddeus Daniel Pierce was born on 26 July in Ohio to Lindsey and Tim Pierce, using an "adopted" embryo from Linda Archerd, 62, from more than 30 years ago.

In the early 1990s, Archerd and her then husband decided to try in vitro fertilisation (IVF) after struggling to become pregnant. In 1994 four embryos resulted: one was transferred to Archerd and resulted in the birth of a daughter, who is now 30 and mother to a 10-year-old. The other embryos were cryopreserved and stored.

"We didn't go into it thinking we would break any records," Lindsey told the MIT Technology Review, which first reported the story. "We just wanted to have a baby."

Science

Physicists Disagree Wildly on What Quantum Mechanics Says About Reality (nature.com) 111

A Nature survey of more than 1,100 physicists reveals fundamental disagreements about quantum mechanics' relationship to reality, despite the theory's century-long track record as one of science's most successful frameworks. The survey, conducted to mark quantum mechanics' 100th anniversary, found 36% of researchers favor the Copenhagen interpretation while 17% prefer epistemic approaches that treat quantum states as information rather than physical reality.

Another 15% support the many-worlds interpretation. Researchers split evenly on whether a boundary exists between quantum and classical worlds -- 45% said yes, 45% said no. When asked about the wavefunction's nature, 47% called it a mathematical tool while 36% considered it a representation of physical reality. Only 24% of respondents expressed confidence their chosen interpretation was correct, with others viewing their preference as merely adequate or useful in certain circumstances.

The survey contacted over 15,000 researchers whose recent papers involved quantum mechanics, plus attendees of a centenary meeting on Heligoland island. Despite quantum mechanics enabling technologies from computer chips to medical imaging, physicists remain divided on the physical reality underlying the mathematics.
Science

Peacock Feathers Can Be Lasers (science.org) 33

sciencehabit shares a report from Science.org: Peacocks have a secret hidden in their brightly colored tail feathers: tiny reflective structures that can amplify light into a laser beam. After dyeing the feathers and energizing them with an external light source, researchers discovered they emitted narrow beams of yellow-green laser light. They say the study, published this month in Scientific Reports, offers the first example of a laser cavity in the animal kingdom. [...]

Scientists have long known that peacock feathers also exhibit "structural color" -- nature's pigment-free way to create dazzling hues. Ordered microstructures within the feathers reflect light at specific frequencies, leading to their vivid blues and greens and iridescence. But Florida Polytechnic University physicist Nathan Dawson and his colleagues wanted to go a step further and see whether those microstructures could also function as a laser cavity. After staining the feathers with a common dye and pumping them with soft pulses of light, they used laboratory instruments to detect beams of yellow-green laser light that were too faint to see with the naked eye. They emerged from the feathers' eyespots, at two distinct wavelengths. Surprisingly, differently colored parts of the eyespots emitted the same wavelengths of laser light, even though each region would presumably vary in its microstructure.

Just because peacock feathers emit laser light doesn't mean the birds are somehow using this emission. But there are still ramifications, Dawson says. He suggests that looking for laser light in biomaterials could help identify arrays of regular microstructures within them. In medicine, for example, certain foreign objects -- viruses with distinct geometric shapes, perhaps -- could be classified and identified based on their ability to be lasers, he says. The work also demonstrates how biological materials could one day yield lasers that could be put safely into the human body to emit light for biosensing, medical imaging, and therapeutics. "I always like to think that for many technological achievements that benefit humans," Dawson says, "some organism somewhere has already developed it through some evolutionary process."

NASA

India Launches NASA-ISRO Satellite To Track Climate Threats From Space (reuters.com) 21

India launched the $1.5 billion NISAR radar imaging satellite on Wednesday from the Satish Dhawan Space Centre, marking the first joint mission between NASA and the Indian Space Research Organisation. The satellite uses dual radar frequencies -- NASA's L-band and ISRO's S-band -- to detect Earth surface changes as small as one centimeter from its 747-kilometer orbit.

NISAR will map the entire planet every 12 days using a 240-kilometer-wide radar swath, providing data for climate monitoring and disaster response that will be freely available to users worldwide.
Science

Famous Double-Slit Experiment Holds Up When Stripped To Its Quantum Essentials (mit.edu) 23

Longtime Slashdot reader ndsurvivor shares a report from MIT: MIT physicists have performed an idealized version of one of the most famous experiments in quantum physics. Their findings demonstrate, with atomic-level precision, the dual yet evasive nature of light. They also happen to confirm that Albert Einstein was wrong about this particular quantum scenario. The experiment in question is the double-slit experiment, which was first performed in 1801 by the British scholar Thomas Young to show how light behaves as a wave. Today, with the formulation of quantum mechanics, the double-slit experiment is now known for its surprisingly simple demonstration of a head-scratching reality: that light exists as both a particle and a wave. Stranger still, this duality cannot be simultaneously observed. Seeing light in the form of particles instantly obscures its wave-like nature, and vice versa.

[...] Now, MIT physicists have performed the most "idealized" version of the double-slit experiment to date. Their version strips down the experiment to its quantum essentials. They used individual atoms as slits, and used weak beams of light so that each atom scattered at most one photon. By preparing the atoms in different quantum states, they were able to modify what information the atoms obtained about the path of the photons. The researchers thus confirmed the predictions of quantum theory: The more information was obtained about the path (i.e. the particle nature) of light, the lower the visibility of the interference pattern was. They demonstrated what Einstein got wrong. Whenever an atom is "rustled" by a passing photon, the wave interference is diminished. "Einstein and Bohr would have never thought that this is possible, to perform such an experiment with single atoms and single photons," says Wolfgang Ketterle, the John D. MacArthur Professor of Physics and leader of the MIT team. "What we have done is an idealized Gedanken experiment." Their results appear in the journal Physical Review Letters.

Medicine

A Pill for Sleep Apnea Could Be on the Horizon 61

Promising Phase 3 trial results from Apnimed suggest a potential game-changing oral pill for sleep apnea could offer a simpler, more tolerable alternative for keeping airways open during sleep. The New York Times reports: For decades, the primary treatment for sleep apnea has been continuous positive airway pressure (or CPAP). Before bed, those with the condition put on a face mask that is connected to a CPAP machine, which keeps the airway open by forcing air into it. The machines are effective, but many find them so noisy, cumbersome or uncomfortable that they end up abandoning them. Now, a more appealing option may be on the way, according to a news release from Apnimed, a pharmaceutical company focused on treating sleep apnea. On Wednesday, the company announced a second round of positive Phase 3 clinical trial results for a first-of-its-kind oral pill that can be taken just before bedtime to help keep a person's airway open.

The full results have not yet been released, or published in a peer-reviewed journal. But the findings build on past, similarly positive conclusions from trials and studies. Sleep experts say that what they're seeing in reports so far makes them think the pill could be a game changer. Dr. Phyllis Zee, a sleep doctor and researcher at Northwestern Medicine who was not involved with the trial, said that if approved, the drug could transform the lives of many. That includes not only those who can't tolerate CPAP machines, but also those who can't -- or prefer not to -- use other interventions, such as other types of oral devices or weight loss medications. (Excess weight is a risk factor for sleep apnea.)
Space

Distorted Sound of the Early Universe Suggests We Are Living In a Giant Void (phys.org) 49

A new study analyzing distorted sound waves from the early universe suggests we may live in a massive cosmic void "with roughly 20% lower than the average density of matter," writes Indranil Banik in an article for The Conversation. "Not every physicist is convinced that this is the case. But our recent paper analyzing distorted sounds from the early universe, published in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, strongly backs up the idea." Slashdot reader alternative_right shares an excerpt from the report: My colleagues and I previously argued that the Hubble tension might be due to our location within a large void. That's because the sparse amount of matter in the void would be gravitationally attracted to the more dense matter outside it, continuously flowing out of the void. In previous research, we showed that this flow would make it look like the local universe is expanding about 10% faster than expected. That would solve the Hubble tension. But we wanted more evidence. And we know a local void would slightly distort the relation between the BAO angular scale and the redshift due to the faster moving matter in the void and its gravitational effect on light from outside.

So in our new paper, Vasileios Kalaitzidis and I set out to test the predictions of the void model using BAO measurements collected over the last 20 years. We compared our results to models without a void under the same background expansion history. In the void model, the BAO ruler should look larger on the sky at any given redshift. And this excess should become even larger at low redshift (close distance), in line with the Hubble tension. The observations confirm this prediction. Our results suggest that a universe with a local void is about one hundred million times more likely than a cosmos without one, when using BAO measurements and assuming the universe expanded according to the standard model of cosmology informed by the CMB.

Our research shows that the ACDM model without any local void is in "3.8 sigma tension" with the BAO observations. This means the likelihood of a universe without a void fitting these data is equivalent to a fair coin landing heads 13 times in a row. By contrast, the chance of the BAO data looking the way they do in void models is equivalent to a fair coin landing heads just twice in a row. In short, these models fit the data quite well. In the future, it will be crucial to obtain more accurate BAO measurements at low redshift, where the BAO standard ruler looks larger on the sky -- even more so if we are in a void. The average expansion rate so far follows directly from the age of the universe, which we can estimate from the ages of old stars in the Milky Way. A local void would not affect the age of the universe, but some proposals do affect it. These and other probes will shed more light on the Hubble crisis in cosmology.

Science

Ageing Accelerates at Around Age 50 - Some Organs Faster Than Others (nature.com) 57

A new analysis of protein changes across human tissues has identified an aging acceleration point around age 50, with blood vessels showing the most dramatic deterioration. Researchers examined tissue samples from eight body systems in 76 people of Chinese ancestry aged 14 to 68 who died from accidental brain injury, finding age-related increases in 48 disease-associated proteins.

Between ages 45 and 55, the most significant shift occurred in the aorta, the body's main artery carrying oxygenated blood from the heart. The team identified one aortic protein that triggers accelerated aging signs when administered to mice. Early aging changes appeared around age 30 in the adrenal gland, which produces various hormones. The study, published in Cell, adds to mounting evidence that aging occurs in waves rather than following a steady progression.
Space

Astronomers Use Black Holes to Pinpoint Earth's Location. But are Phones and Wifi Blocking the View? (space.com) 45

Measuring earth's position (or "geodesy") requires using telescopes that track radiation from distant black holes. Their signals "pass cleanly through the atmosphere and we can receive them during day and night and in all weather conditions," writes a senior scientist at the University of Tasmania.

But there's a problem... Radio waves are also used for communication on Earth — including things such as wifi and mobile phones... [A] few narrow lanes are reserved for radio astronomy. However, in previous decades the radio highway had relatively little traffic. Scientists commonly strayed from the radio astronomy lanes to receive the black hole signals. To reach the very high precision needed for modern technology, geodesy today relies on more than just the lanes exclusively reserved for astronomy.

In recent years, human-made electromagnetic pollution has vastly increased. When wifi and mobile phone services emerged, scientists reacted by moving to higher frequencies. However, they are running out of lanes. Six generations of mobile phone services (each occupying a new lane) are crowding the spectrum... Today, the multitude of signals are often too strong for geodetic observatories to see through them to the very weak signals emitted by black holes. This puts many satellite services at risk.

To keep working into the future — to maintain the services on which we all depend — geodesy needs some more lanes on the radio highway. When the spectrum is divided up via international treaties at world radio conferences, geodesists need a seat at the table. Other potential fixes might include radio quiet zones around our essential radio telescopes. Work is also underway with satellite providers to avoid pointing radio emissions directly at radio telescopes. Any solution has to be global. For our geodetic measurements, we link radio telescopes together from all over the world, allowing us to mimic a telescope the size of Earth. The radio spectrum is primarily regulated by each nation individually, making this a huge challenge.

But perhaps the first step is increasing awareness. If we want satellite navigation to work, our supermarkets to be stocked and our online money transfers arriving safely, we need to make sure we have a clear view of those black holes in distant galaxies — and that means clearing up the radio highway.

China

'Serious Delays' Hit Satellite Mega-Constellations of China's Starlink Rivals (scmp.com) 29

"A Chinese mega-constellation of communications satellites is facing serious delays," reports the South China Morning Post, "that could jeopardise its ambitions to compete with SpaceX's Starlink for valuable orbital resources." Only 90 satellites have been launched into low Earth orbit for the Qianfan broadband network — also known as the Thousand Sails Constellation or G60 Starlink — well short of the project's goal of 648 by the end of this year... Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite Technology, the company leading the project, plans to deploy more than 15,000 satellites by 2030 to deliver direct-to-phone internet services worldwide. To stay on track, Yuanxin — which is backed by the Shanghai municipal government — would have to launch more than 30 satellites a month to achieve its milestones of 648 by the end of 2025 for regional coverage and 1,296 two years later for global connectivity.
The New York Times reports that "the other megaconstellation, Guowang, is even farther behind. Despite plans to launch about 13,000 satellites within the next decade, it has 34 in orbit." A constellation has to launch half of its satellites within five years of successfully applying for its frequencies, and complete the full deployment within seven years, according to rules set by the International Telecommunication Union, a United Nations agency that allocates frequencies. The Chinese megaconstellations are behind on these goals. Companies that fail to hit their targets could be required to reduce the size of their megaconstellations.
Meanwhile SpaceX "has about 8,000 Starlink satellites in orbit and is expanding its lead every month," the Times writes, citing data from the U.S. Space Force and the nonprofit space-data group CelesTrak. (The Times has even created an animation showing Starlink's 8,000 satellites in orbit.) Researchers for the People's Liberation Army predict that the network will become "deeply embedded in the U.S. military combat system." They envision a time when Starlink satellites connect U.S. military bases and serve as an early missile-warning and interception network....

One of the major reasons for China's delay is the lack of a reliable, reusable launcher. Chinese companies still launch satellites using single-use rockets. After the satellites are deployed, rocket parts tumble back to Earth or become space debris... Six years after [SpaceX's] Falcon 9 began launching Starlink satellites, Chinese firms still have no answer to it... The government has tested nearly 20 rocket launchers in the "Long March" series.

Moon

Asteroid 2024 YR4 Spared The Earth. What Happens if It Hits the Moon Instead in 2032? (cnn.com) 22

Remember asteroid 2024 YR4 (which at one point had a 1 in 32 chance of hitting Earth, before ending up at "impact probability zero")? CNN reports that asteroid is now "zooming beyond the reach of telescopes on its orbit around the sun."

"But as scientists wait for it to reappear, its revised trajectory is now drawing attention to another possible target: the moon." The latest observations of the asteroid in early June, before YR4 disappeared from view, have improved astronomers' knowledge of where it will be in seven years by almost 20%, according to NASA. That data shows that even with Earth avoiding direct impact, YR4 could still pose a threat in late 2032 by slamming into the moon. ["The asteroid's probability of impacting the Moon has slightly increased from 3.8% to 4.3%," writes NASA, and "it would not alter the Moon's orbit."]
CNN calls the probabiliy "small but decent enough odds for scientists to consider how such a scenario might play out." The collision could create a bright flash that would be visible with the naked eye for several seconds, according to Wiegert, lead author of a recent paper submitted to the American Astronomical Society journals analyzing the potential lunar impact. The collision could create an impact crater on the moon estimated at 1 kilometer wide (0.6 miles wide), Wiegert said... It would be the largest impact on the moon in 5,000 years and could release up to 100 million kilograms (220 million pounds) of lunar rocks and dust, according to the modeling in Wiegert's study... Particles the size of large sand grains, ranging from 0.1 to 10 millimeters in size, of lunar material could reach Earth between a few days and a few months after the asteroid strike because they'll be traveling incredibly fast, creating an intense, eye-catching meteor shower, Wiegert said.

"There's absolutely no danger to anyone on the surface," Wiegert said. "We're not expecting large boulders or anything larger than maybe a sugar cube, and our atmosphere will protect us very nicely from that. But they're traveling faster than a speeding bullet, so if they were to hit a satellite, that could cause some damage...." Hundreds to thousands of impacts from millimeter-size debris could affect Earth's satellite fleet, meaning satellites could experience up to 10 years' equivalent of meteor debris exposure in a few days, Wiegert said... While a temporary loss of communication and navigation from satellites would create widespread difficulties on Earth, Wiegert said he believes the potential impact is something for satellite operators, rather than the public, to worry about.

"Any missions in low-Earth orbit could also be in the pathway of the debris, though the International Space Station is scheduled to be deorbited before any potential impact," reports CNN.

And they add that Wiegert also believes even small pieces of debris (tens of centimeters in size) "could present a hazard for any astronauts who may be present on the moon, or any structures they have built for research and habitation... The moon has no atmosphere, so the debris from the event could be widespread on the lunar surface, he added."

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