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Artificial Intelligence to Predict Sports Injuries 201

Posted by michael from the slow-down-cowboy dept.
nakhla writes "MSNBC.com is running a story on how an Italian soccer team is using artificial intelligence to predict sports injuries. The team is working with Computer Associates to develop neural network technology that can be combined with daily tests of the athletes to determine patterns which occur right before a player gets injured. Of course, one has to assume that it wouldn't be able to predict a player getting kicked in the head in the middle of the game, resulting in a concussion." I was wondering how to tie a World Cup story into Slashdot. Congratulations to Senegal.
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Artificial Intelligence to Predict Sports Injuries More

Artificial Intelligence to Predict Sports Injuries

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  • Depending on the nature of the neural net, it might be able to predict patterns that let it guess when someone will get kicked in the head.
    • Right. For example, if they shave their head and paint it like a soccer ball and bury themselves up to the neck in the middle of the field just before practice, yeah, they'll probably get kicked in the head.
    • How about developing an algorithm to predict the likelihood of David Beckham kicking another player in the calf?

  • That's Scary (Score:1, Insightful)

    by G0SP0DAR ( 552303 )
    Do you think that could predict my driving patterns and tell me the next time I will most likely cause an accident? I think the focus should be more on prevention, but what the hell, they're Italian...

  • Problem? (Score:4, Interesting)

    by qslack ( 239825 ) <qslack@@@pobox...com> on Friday May 31, 2002 @04:23PM (#3619686) Homepage Journal
    What if the computer predicted that Michael Jordan would break his leg if he played one more game? It is certainly not 100% correct, so what would happen? Would the coach let him play and take the chance, or would they listen to the computer? What if they didn't heed the computer's warning and MJ broke his leg? Would he have grounds to sue?

    Technology is supposed to solve problems, not create them. :)
    • > Technology is supposed to solve problems, not create them.

      At the risk of getting flamed, most analysis' of social patterns and technology suggests that any given technology is garaunteed to create problems as well as solve them. Of course, since we're talking about the future, while you might know what you're solving, you can never be 100% sure you know what problems you'll cause.

      Please tell me this isn't news. ;)
      • Of course, since we're talking about the future, while you might know what you're solving, you can never be 100% sure you know what problems you'll cause.

        But you could always make a neural net to tell you what problems you'll cause :)
    • You just make a movie about the situation [imdb.com], then collect all the profits.
    • These systems usually work on trends and patterns that a normal human usualy doesn't see.. Its not that the software is going to say Michael is going to take a fall next game but it may find a pattern that saies someting like.. Michael has a X higher point average in games where he has had X number of days off.. or Michael jump shots are X percent poorer when he misses X number of practices..

      This can be usefull information in the right hands..
  • Give me their funding and i'll tell you who will for sure get injured... Give me enough $$ and i could tell you who will win the games!

    "Make them an offer they can't refuse"

  • Americans and soccer (Score:4, Informative)

    by Ryne ( 78636 ) on Friday May 31, 2002 @04:24PM (#3619691)
    an Italian soccer team

    ah gawd, AC Milan is one of the most famous teams in the world, maybe the name could be included in the article, not just an Italian soccer team.

    • Re:Americans and soccer (Score:4, Insightful)

      by martissimo ( 515886 ) on Friday May 31, 2002 @04:31PM (#3619740)
      i'm guessing that at least 9 out of 10 non-football fans wouldn't have a clue who AC Milan is. Almost anyone can recognize the meaning of "an Italian soccer team"

      besides what is intersting about this article is not the team itself, its the way they are using the technology to attempt to predict future injuries.

      PS wtg Senegal, go Azul!!!

      • Re:Americans and soccer (Score:2, Interesting)

        by RvonG ( 265682 )
        No. As a non-football fan I know exactly who AC Milan are. Their president is one Silvio Berlusconi.
        What has always seemed weird to me about the club (and their otherwise excellent website [acmilan.com] doesn't seem to explain it) is that their name uses the English language version of their home city's name. Around the days of big matches it is not unusual to see signs on the autostrade around where the final "o" in "Milano" has been painted out by fans.

        • Re:Americans and soccer (Score:1, Informative)

          by Anonymous Coward
          their name uses the English language version of their home city's name. Around the days of big matches it is not unusual to see signs on the autostrade around where the final "o" in "Milano" has been painted out by fans.

          sorry you are totally mistaken

          Milan is the correct spelling in most (all?) northern Italian dialects. It's therefore the native spelling of the city Italians know as Milano

          . (just as Trst [primorski.it] is the native spelling of Trieste [ilpiccolo.it] :-).)

          • Milan is the correct spelling in most (all?) northern Italian dialects. It's therefore the native spelling of the city Italians know as Milano


            Interesting theory. Milan is not a spelling I have ever seen in Northern Italy, but you did force me to do some research aka a Google search [google.com].


            The club was originally the Milan Cricket and Football Club. Unless you can come up with an Italian dialect meaning for cricket, I don't think your theory can be sustained.
      • I think very many people in Europe would know about Milan even though they don't like soccer. And it wouldn't exactly hurt to put the name of the team into the article.

        I find it interesting to know which team it is. If it is a team as well-known and with as much money as Milan then it is likely to be well executed, unlike if it was some unknown team that hired the coach's son because he had taken an AI-class in school.
    • While I agree with your comment, it is just...

      For example lets say I said Montreal Canadians, Philly Flyers, Boston Bruins? What would you say? Probably nothing since they most likely mean nothing to you. Or lets say I say The Rocket Richard, Gordie Howe, Ken Dryden, Guy Lafleur, Bobby Clark, etc. These names are legendary in ice hockey...

      My point is that while the name AC Milan may mean something to you and me there are a lot folks that it means nothing.

      And who said it best? When in Rome do as the Romans do... North Americans understand Italian soccer team not football team AC Milan.
      • lets say I said Montreal Canadians .... ? What would you say?

        I'd say they are Montreal Canadiens, and not Canadians
        A bit different to some people. Just like "InterMilan" and "AC Milan".
    • an Italian soccer team

      "ah gawd, AC Milan is one of the most famous teams in the world, maybe the name could be included in the article, not just an Italian soccer team."

      Yeah, that's not all that's happening in Milan, either [gazzetta.it]

      Go Tyler!!!! [tylerhamilton.com]

  • Handicapper's dream (Score:2, Interesting)

    by L. VeGas ( 580015 )
    How much you think that data is worth to bookies?
    • Potentially quite a bit. Obviously the World Cup has a similar system in place to predict the outcome of matches as seen in this quote:

      "Portugal's first game in the World Cup finals will be a Group D tie against the United States on June 5."

      Of course now sports loving Portuguese and US hackers get to fight over turning a tie into a win...

  • -Ok, jim, my computer says you will break your right kneecap on the 35 minute. So, try to be still around then.
    -Ok
    (at the 35th minute jim stands still, at which point a brick from the fans smashes his head).

    The coach returned the brogram cause it was bugged.

  • Artificial intelligence and sports (Score:3, Funny)

    by BluedemonX ( 198949 ) on Friday May 31, 2002 @04:25PM (#3619709)
    I thought artificial intelligence as it relates to sports is either

    1. Grade inflation so that the jocks won't miss the big game for the state championships

    OR

    2. Jocks buying term papers on the internet or beating up the liberal arts students to get them to do it for them so that they don't get considered unable to play by the NCAA and therefore miss the upcoming national championships.

  • Could be a timesaver (Score:2, Interesting)

    by elocutio ( 567729 )
    Think of the injuries that could be avoided by just have the AI figure out how the score will turn out. No need to play the game; just sit back and enjoy the simulation.

    Isn't the sustaining of injuries one of the cases that player agents make for multi-bizillion dollar salaries?
    • Heh I wonder if that bird that got hit by a baseball pitch is considered a 'sports injury'.
      Nope. It's a 'sports kill'. Read the article. The bird didn't survive.
      • I'm aware of the bird dying. Sheesh. 'Heh I wonder if that bird that got hit by a baseball pitch is considered a sports kill' wouldn't have made as much sense, keeping to the topic of this post.

        Interesting how humans automatically believe other humans are misinformed. I wonder if Occam considered that. Heh.
  • We need AI that can properly officiate, by golly! AI that can tell when someone is diving to the ice or pretending to be fouled. Once we don't have to worry about humans making bad calls, Shaq won't be able to gripe...the Toronto Maple Leafs won't be able to get boarding calls...Superbowl playoffs that have fumbles will really be called fumbles...

    You get the idea...

    By the way...Go 'Canes!!
  • Aside from all the alleged artificial muscles (hint: Steroid use can fubar your body, re: Mark McGwire) AI detection shouldn't be all the necessary, just get people to play clean (unlike that ridiculous body block in today's FRA/SEN match) and work out within reason. When $$$ incentives encourage overdoing (or drug abusing) you're going to get injuries.

    Of course some injuries are most commonly associated with certain sports (torn ACL == football, broken collar bone == cycling) and you're not going to do much to stop that, aside from some absurd contrivance like the old OSHA Approved Cowboy [hsegroup.com] was wearing.

  • ...written all over it.

    (as does my forehead)

  • World Cup (Score:2, Funny)

    by Edward Teach ( 11577 )
    I'd watch the World Cup but I don't really care for yahting.

  • funny semantics (Score:3, Funny)

    by datastew ( 529152 ) on Friday May 31, 2002 @04:29PM (#3619728)
    genies that could warn of a rotor cuff about to explode in the new hot prospect's shoulder.[emphasis mine]
    Unless their "new hot prospect" is a helicopter, I think they mean rotator cuff [google.com].
    • I had a serious rotator cuff injury a few years ago from swimming. Sucked majorly, but physical therapy feels good, especially when the person helping you looks so nice.

      I'm not quite sure how bad such an injury would effect a soccer player, but obviously this is limited to soccer.
    • genies that could warn of a rotor cuff about to explode in the new hot prospect's shoulder

      also impressed that they have employed genies, was wondering when Barbara Eden would find gainfull employment again, she's still got a sexy torso at like the age of 60 or something ;)
  • I was wondering how to tie a World Cup story into Slashdot. Congratulations to Senegal.

    Well, Michael, I can create you a genetic program for this situation. You can tell it "I want /. to feature xxx-flavor-of-the-day", and it will come up with a snappy headline, and a nice semi-controvertial article. So what if the links it makes up are fabricated, I mean no one actually follows them anyway, right?

    The best part is, I can build it for you at the rock-bottom price of just $5,000,000!

  • preventative medicine (Score:5, Insightful)

    by happyclam ( 564118 ) on Friday May 31, 2002 @04:35PM (#3619763)

    One thing that everyone seems to be missing is that being able to predict injuries implies the ability to prevent them. Not through inaction but rather through preventative medicine such as physical therapy to strengthen certain muscles around a particularly dodgy ligament or something.

    Such AI would also be useful in correcting improper training--if someone is slowly degrading their ankle/rotator cuff/lower vertebrae/what have you by doing something slightly wrong, such tests and analysis could predict the injury before it happens, allowing the coach/trainer to stop the athlete from doing that bad thing any more.

  • "And now, the Gamble-Tron 2000 will tell us the winner, nyahey .... Cincinnati, by 200 points!?!? You stupid piece junk!"
    • Apu: Could it be used for dating?

      Professor Frink: Well, theoretically, yes. But the computer matches would be so perfect as to eliminate the thrill of romantic conquest. Mw-hurgn-whey.

  • Blockquoth the poster, evermore (from here until the ending blockquote tag):


    Ultimately the neural network correctly predicted injuries 84 percent of the time, Meersseman said. "The mathematicians think they can get this number up to 96 percent," he added


    This is about the funniest line I've read today (and today they almost gave the coding staff control of the functional requirements specifications....). Of course the mathematicians think they can get the beast more accurate. Everyone knows

    The statisticians believed the odds quoted because they thought them to be grounded in theory established; the physicists believed the odds quoted because they thought them to be grounded in observation.... Only murphy knew the truth.

  • Nah (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Em Emalb ( 452530 ) <ememalbNO@SPAMgmail.com> on Friday May 31, 2002 @04:37PM (#3619772) Homepage Journal
    As someone who has (believe it or not) played sports his whole life (baseball, basketball, football, basically any sport except soccer cause eye foot coordination ain't my bag) I don't think this will work. Sports are just too damned random. Even as the example in the article showed, ole Renando or what ever the hell his name is, blew out his knee on the treadmill. So, what happens when you get 9 fielders and a runner or two on the field and the guy running to first tries to avoid the tag and rolls his ankle severely, or hits a foul ball off his leg, lands on another players foot going for a rebound, gets blind-sided by a 300+lb lineman, etc? This may work in the example listed about treadmills, but will not work in the actual field of play. So, the only real tie-in to sports here is that this soccer (ok, ok, futbol) team has a multi-million dollar investment that was hurt in a mundane activity (treadmill running) and wanted to make sure it didn't happen again. Until it can predict when a player will be hurt before he is in the field of play, come talk to me.

    Semi-OT now:

    What's up with the silly little cards used in soccer? (futbol) It's rather silly. How did it develop? DO people really care? Oh no, I got a piece of plastic pulled out on me, I'm so scared. Yes, I know that it is serious when someone gets red-carded, but the actual act of being penalized is lame as hell. Thoughts? What would be a better system? Everytime a foul is committed the opposing player who was injured gets to power-slam the offender? Sounds good to me. Would make soccer more fun to watch ;-) (tongue in cheek, mods, so pull that ruffle back out of your panties :)
    • Oh no, I got a piece of plastic pulled out on me, I'm so scared.

      Tell that to Gazza in the '90 World Cup semi-final.

    • Everytime a foul is committed the opposing player who was injured gets to power-slam the offender? Sounds good to me.

      Damn dude, you had me laughing for a good couple minutes with that one. I can just picture it... <laughs some more>

  • I question the wisdom of engaging CA to predict sports injuries when it has a tough time predicting the outcome from doctoring the company books [nwfusion.com].

  • Source Code Excerpt (Score:5, Funny)

    by apg ( 66778 ) on Friday May 31, 2002 @04:38PM (#3619775) Homepage

    Here's a portion of the AI code that was leaked:

    if (player.runWith == "scissors") {
    player.injury.type = "puncture wound";
    }
    else if (player.christmasGift = "Red Rider BB Gun") {
    alert("You'll shoot your eye out.");
    }
    • In line four there is = instead of == If the quality of the actual code is like that, I wouldn't bet for the Italian team.

    • This is damn funny.

      Small logic error, though: Seems reasonable that a player could potentially both be running with scissors and have received the Red Rider BB Gun as a Christmas gift.

    • That is not an example of a Neural Network, but of Business Logic. Don't mix these technologies.
      With neural network there will not be an obvious relation ship between the input and the output. It's based on data input.
      I wonder which team provided the training data.

    • Oh man, thank you for this one... you can never have too many references to "A Christmas Story"... particularly in late spring. =)
  • They don't say exactly what they are measuring with the sensors on the players body, but in addition to those sensors they use "psychological data, as well as information on what each player eats" as input.

    I would think they could quantify MRI/CT scans of the relevent areas of the body, and use those as inputs to the NN. Frankly I'm very suprised that it has shown 84% accuracy, but I guess without knowing what the sensors measure it's hard to say.
    • I guess without knowing what the sensors measure it's hard to say.

      They're measuring the amount of nunocloreans, tiny creatures that live in symbiosis with all living beings, preventing injuries, particularly during athletic events and hand-to-hand combat. People who have many nunocloreans are very forceful and have few injuries. But the nunocloreans decrease with age, leading to things like broken hips.

  • Unlike the World Series, the World Cup actually contains teams from around the world
    • What about Miss Universum?
    • Unlike the World Series, the World Cup actually contains teams from around the world.

      I think the best version of this comment was given by John Cleese on US TV in an interview around the Clinton/Lewinsky newsfest. It went something like "There are three differences between the English and Americans. 1) We speak English, you don't. 2) When we host a world championship, we invite other countries to join in, and 3) When you meet our head of state, you only have to go down on one knee, not two."

  • HAL (Score:2)

    by daeley ( 126313 )
    I can see you're really upset about this. I honestly think you ought to sit down calmly, take a stress pill, and think things over.
  • I've noticed that the official site of Fifa 2002 - fifaworldcup.com - runs on Yahoo. Has anyone else experienced a slowdown of the website? Especially in the morning, it gets unusable. Can't they afford more bandwidth?

    Don't they have an AI to tell them "We're going to need a bigger boat" ?
  • technology that can be combined with daily tests of the athletes to determine patterns which occur right before a player gets injured.

    Wow, and do you know what the computer is going to say? That people are most likely to get injured when taking RISKS! More risks, more likely injured. Big surpise, next we are going to try and predict who is likely going to get injured in a shootout based on information relaying where the guns are pointed!

    -Sean

    -Sean
  • ...to predict fatal accidents on the last turn of the last lap of the last Daytona 500.

  • "I was wondering how to tie a World Cup story into Slashdot. Congratulations to Senegal."

    Well taco, given how topical a lot of stories are (and don't even get me started on Ask Slashdot), i guess you could just post match scores on the front page.

    This is a good place to start a flamewar on slashdot's US-centered-ness, since it looks like the US is one of the few countries where the soccer world cup isn't a completely paralyzing event (what with matches airing at 1 and 3 AM central US time, i bet a lot of sports fans across the continent will show up at work late and half-asleep, if at all, for the next month).

    • Well, From June 19 through the 25th, we can have a daily article or three on World Cup as long as we tie it in to RoboCup [robocup.org] stories. What I'd like to see on the front page are the daily scores and stats from THAT. (I'll get my soccer stats live and from sources other than /. thankyouverymuch.)

    • Re:world cup stories (Score:1, Flamebait)

      by lkaos ( 187507 )
      World Cup? That must be why Google has a goofy soccer logo on there site..

      Yup, noone in the US gives to shits about soccer. In fact, a lot of folks here, well, kind of consider soccer to be a homosexual sport. There's just something really gay about running around in short shorts.
      • Yup, noone in the US gives to shits about soccer. In fact, a lot of folks here, well, kind of consider soccer to be a homosexual sport. There's just something really gay about running around in short shorts.

        I'm an American, but...

        Look at our OTHER so-called sports. Golf? (dress up in funny cloths and hit a small ball.) Baseball? (Dress in PJs, whack a ball, and run around four bases). Football? (Dress in tights, slap the other player's ass, and get rough and dirty with lots of other guys.)

        Ok, so I admit to not being a sports fan--but I really don't see how Soccor is any more "gay" than the rest of the national sports. (Bowling! Hockey! Track & Field! Frisbiee Golf!--er, scrap that last one.)

  • I think I'd rather read an article in which athletes present their predictions on the future of AI.

  • In the case of the victory of Senegal over France, there is no science : French masterplayer Zinedine Zidane got his injury a few days before this match, without obvious reason.

    Many people in Senegal, and in Africa more generally, pay sorcerers in order to put a curse on the rival team, and its best players. This article [yahoo.com] (in french) explains that : all teams that played against Senegal saw their best players injured for their round against Senegal !

    So the scientific method to predict injuries must take into account the power of sorcerers ! Can artificial intelligence really know this information ?
  • First im danish, were grouped with both france and senegal. I hate the french team, mostly because a. they are xtremely good, and denmark is grouped with them. B. They allways seem to kick our but when we meet them, only time i can remeber us winning was in Euro 92(but we had a awsome team back then, and we won the entire tournament). And ofcource C. They are french..

    BUT, i HATE the fact senegal won. I know everybody loves a underdog win and everything, but jessus! never had i seen such a boring soccer game.They way they won was one of the ugliest things ever seen in football. , they played 4-5-1. But using prettymuch ALL their midfieldser as defenders. So in reality they played something like 8-1-1, which is about as defensive as it gets. The French played all the ball, since only one senegal player seemed to want to leave his own side of the field. But it worked, they won.. But it was one of the most boring VM matches ive ever seen.. The French had possesion (65 france 35 senegal), all they did was running around trying to find a hole in the abnormally big wall of a defence.

    In basket terms, if one of the teams desides to not wanna play the game. And everybody just stands under their basket proctecing it, letting only one guy attack once in a while(hoping for a lucky punch).

    Teams like this kill soccer...
    • Do you remember when Argentina beat Brazil
      a couple (?) of World Cups ago in semis.
      That was an awesome game even though it
      had the same dynamics you just described.
      (IIRC Battistuta was the only one to venture
      out of the Argentinian half, he scored his
      one goal and that was enough).
      Just because it is strong/lucky defense vs.
      strong offense doesn't mean the game is
      boring.
      • Yes, it was in 1990, the WC was in Italia...

        Brazil was playing much better (if you can define what 'better' is when we are talking about soccer).

        Soccer is an amazing game. I can't explain why, it just is.

        BTW, Viva la Fran^H^H^HSenegal!!!! :P
  • we could have prevented seles gettin stabbed ?
    nothin can beat human unpredictability

  • The Supreme Court overturns today's CIPA ruling, so people can no longer go to the library to see this photo [go.com] of a young woman, shirtless, on a soccer field. It was deemed pr0nographic by the government censors^H^H^H^H^H^H^H officials.

  • if (szPlayer == "Eric Lindros")
    {
    RaiseInjury("Concussion");
    }
  • Unless this some phenomenal new thing, this is the kind of stuff for bookmakers and betters..once it was horses now its jockz...
  • Who is the witch doctor that sold the Italians on this idea? Sorry, but sports injuries don't follow a pattern, and neural nets look for patterns. The only pattern it would spot is a guy who gets regularly injured.

    Sports injuries happen because of "accidents." Neural nets aren't crystal balls. Hell, the stock market is more predictable than a sports injury, and getting a neural net to predict that is still a rough problem.
  • So now instead of just employees skiving to watch the footy, we'll have the computers watching the footy as well?

    What next, a peripheral to test the various qualities of beer and curry?
  • 26% have voiced their opinion that "neural networks used to help pick players" should be banned.

    That would be one interesting rule. What counts as a neural network? Most current neural networks are either heavily centralized or mildly useful. I'm sure they would stretch the definition to cover most "computing devices"!

    And, how would they know? It's hard enough trying to find out which players use steroids. Are computing devices going to become contraband?

    Lastly, what would be the point of the law? Is it to give bad prospects better chances? Is it the first step in outlawing meticulous stat keeping?

    Really, I'm not too surprised. Remember, the average poll taker is probably a MSN subscriber.

  • People here appear to be a bit confused between the two. I think what they (CA?) are saying is that they can, with some certainty, predict when a spontaneous injury may occur to an athlete. These "injuries" are not of the get-hit-in-the-head/collide-with-opponent type; of course you can't predict those! But there are some injuries (like a torn ligament or a fracture) that can occur while the player is just playing. These you may be able to predict with some certainty, because the body may have given signals earlier about the existing weakness (maybe some antibodies are created, or some other such tracers can be found). Of course, not having seen what kind of inputs the system uses, it is a tough call to say whether this is real or just witchcraft.

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