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Google to Compete with iTunes? 263

mikeythecmptrguy wrote to mention a Forbes report on analyst predictions that Google may be gearing up to compete with iTunes. From the article: "Analyst Robert Peck speculated that it makes sense for Google to create a rival for the popular iTunes service by Apple Computer, given the explosive growth of unique visitors to the iTunes' Web site. 'Further, Nielsen indicates that iTunes users form a distinct target audience with brand preferences along autos, alcohol beverages, magazines, and television,' he added. "
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Google to Compete with iTunes?

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  • Great! (Score:5, Interesting)

    by daveschroeder ( 516195 ) * on Thursday January 26, 2006 @05:47PM (#14573028)
    I welcome Google, if this analyst prediction (read: guess, at best an educated one) for what Google "may" be doing turns out to be true.

    Why?

    Because Google won't be using Windows Media.[1]

    And any new player that doesn't use Windows Media is a good thing.

    To expand a little bit, though, on why I doubt this is so, at least in the near term (aside from the fact it would be yet another music service in a sea of music services that are all dominated by the market leader): the thing that makes iTunes most attractive, aside from its own independent ease of use, is the seamless and transparent integration with the iPod, and the fact that everything is integrated into one application. There is no going to a web site here, downloading files there, and importing them into a music player here.

    How is a web-based service going to accomplish this? Is Google going to write Windows (and Mac OS X) applications that bridge the service to a media player? Or perhaps standalone applications like Google Earth? I mean, yeah, savvy people here will say they don't mind downloading individual files, managing them in some other application, and/or manually dragging them to their music player and meticulously managing their own file and directory structures.

    However, most normal people don't want to do this, and that's just yet another part of the many reasons why the iTunes/iPod combination is so successful, even in the face of intense attempts from other giants attempting to topple it.

    [1] No, they won't be using Windows Media, just like they're not using it for Google Video, including the paid service.
    • Re:Great! (Score:2, Insightful)

      by mkosmo ( 768069 ) *
      Google is getting closer to making the internet a better place... where there is always a free option and not ONLY sold by cash hungry mongrels. I welcome Google in all their endevours. I wonder if the expected Google free version will just be like Yahoo music videos or something...
      • Re:Great! (Score:3, Insightful)

        by dangitman ( 862676 )
        Google video doesn't make your scenario sound very promising. the "free section" is full of absolutely terrible crap. I'd pay NOT to look at Google video, it's that bad. Poor quality videos of dubious merit. At least the cash hungry mongrels have an incentive to produce quality material.

        And Google *is* a cash-hungry mongrel. Just because you don't buy the free videos, doesn't mean Google isn't doing it for the cash.

    • Re:Great! (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Roj Blake ( 931541 )
      I welcome Google, if this analyst prediction (read: guess, at best an educated one) for what Google "may" be doing turns out to be true.

      Although I don't find a reason to believe them (Google analysts) anymore. GooglePC, GoogleOS, Google browser, Google some-sort-of-internet-appliance, and now iGoogleTunes.

      I'll believe it when I see the beta.
      • Re:Great! (Score:4, Funny)

        by flyingsquid ( 813711 ) on Thursday January 26, 2006 @06:53PM (#14573803)
        Well, a Google music service would fit with their mania for diversification: Google Maps, Google News, Google Print, Google Print, Gmail, now radio advertising... what next? Google Malt Liquor? Google Sulfuric Acid? Google Organized Crime?

        It's like the managers sit around and get really, really stoned and say, "Man, what can we put the Google name on this time?"

        Of course, that wouldn't make me want to work there any less. Quite the contrary.

    • Re:Great! (Score:3, Insightful)

      by MtViewGuy ( 197597 )
      Except for one thing: most paid-download music sites already use the Windows Media Audio format. And most non-Apple portable music players support DRM-protected .WMA files, too.

      Google will have to either 1) support Apple's DRM-protected AAC format, 2) support Microsoft's DRM-protected WMA format, or 3) create its own DRM-protected format and convince portable music player makers to support Google's own format.
      • Except for one thing: most paid-download music sites already use the Windows Media Audio format. And most non-Apple portable music players support DRM-protected .WMA files, too.

        Google will have to either 1) support Apple's DRM-protected AAC format, 2) support Microsoft's DRM-protected WMA format, or 3) create its own DRM-protected format and convince portable music player makers to support Google's own format.


        I agree. And since Google has already created its own DRM format... [theregister.co.uk]
    • Re:Great! (Score:3, Interesting)

      by dangitman ( 862676 )
      And any new player that doesn't use Windows Media is a good thing.

      Not necessarily. Look how bad RealPlayer is. Look how bad practically all the third-party video players are. Doesn't really matter anyway - because whatever format they use, it will have DRM, so it won't be compatible with the non-DRM version of the same format.

    • Because Google won't be using Windows Media.[1]

      And any new player that doesn't use Windows Media is a good thing.


      I totally agree with that. There is nothing sweeter than to see two giant competing to sell media, and neither of them using WMV.

      How Google addreses the interoperability angle - I think they either start offering videos at iPod resolutions for free, or like you say they create some kind of local Google client that transcodes the video for you while protecting it to some extent. It all depends o
    • "How is a web-based service going to accomplish this?" They write an application that you download from a web page and install on your computer. Or they write several, one for each platform.
    • Because Google won't be using Windows Media.

      Right, they'll be using a customized version of VLC [videolan.org] that only runs on Windows and a proprietary codec that is only usable with their version of VLC.

      Yea, that's real great. Thanks. Expect it to end up the same way their video service did [nwsource.com].

    • I welcome Google, if this analyst prediction (read: guess, at best an educated one) for what Google "may" be doing turns out to be true. Why? Because Google won't be using Windows Media.

      Funny, I welcome this possibility because I doubt that Google will use Apple's AAC format! Every device I have that can play digital media has no problem with Windows Media Audio (not to say I don't avoid it like the plague, though, but that's just 'cause it sucks compared to something decent like ogg-vorbis or more work
      • by ciroknight ( 601098 ) on Thursday January 26, 2006 @10:56PM (#14575463)
        Except for the fact that AAC isn't at all proprietary; AAC is a part of MPEG-2 [mpeg.org] meaning that it is highly standarized, and is a practical replacement for the MP3 codec as it offers better quality sound at a lower bitrate.

        So what you really hate is the DRM emposed on the media, but guess what? No company is interested in selling their media these days without DRM. So you have a choice to make: boycott all companies that sell DRM'd media (basically your only option is Indie stuff, which if you're okay with that..), or buy into a DRM system that's incredible easy to crack (as FairPlay, Apple's Licensed DRM, is).

        "Proprietary formats"? No, that's what WMA is. Microsoft's idea of creating their own standard just because they want a licencing cut of everyone using it. Apple's AAC-protected would be that way, only they've made it *perfectly* clear they are not interested in licencing it to anyone. (Hell, there's even a DRM module for OGG. Not that anyone would ever use it).

        So please, no more FUD.
    • Yes, lets mindlessly bash Microsoft for providing a DRM audio format that many companies can license and use, and praise Apple for creating a completely closed system that doesn't let other parties participate in, whether it's making an mp3 player or selling music online.
      • The underlying standards Apple uses are all MPEG family standards: MPEG-4, H.264, and AAC. Even with DRM, this helps the adoption and usage of open standards in general.

        This is not the case with Windows Media, and any use of Windows Media - even without DRM - hurts open standards and assists Microsoft, which is already operating from a judicially-determined monopoly position. (To say nothing of Microsoft now officially providing a Windows Media Player only for Windows.)

        That's the difference.
  • Could this be (Score:2, Insightful)

    by inter alias ( 947885 )
    HMM... someone who wants to give their GOOG a boost and get rid of it before it drops?
  • iSnob? (Score:4, Insightful)

    by ackthpt ( 218170 ) * on Thursday January 26, 2006 @05:50PM (#14573072) Homepage Journal
    'Further, Nielsen indicates that iTunes users form a distinct target audience with brand preferences along autos, alcohol beverages, magazines, and television,' he added.

    It would be interesting to see if they are more pedestrian tastes or trendy.

    • Re:iSnob? (Score:4, Insightful)

      by EZmagz ( 538905 ) on Thursday January 26, 2006 @07:00PM (#14573859) Homepage
      Definitely more trendy tastes. A report was recently published saying that VW drivers are more likely to be iPod owners than any other group of car owners in the US. I'd post the link but I'm at work and the VW forum I found the link on is blocked.

      Basically the demographic that Apple aimed for (and nailed perfectly) was the hipster in their 20s who was listening to the latest indie rock CD while driving in their new Jetta on the way to Starbucks. And despite claiming such influential independence, the above group tends to make identical purchases. Whether it's beer (Heinekin or Amstel Light), music (The Strokes), automobiles (VW Jetta or Golf, but it's always the 2.0L since they don't actually care about the engine), or where they buy their clothes (Urban Outfitters).

      Of course that's a gigantic generalization, but there is a definite hipster target market.

  • Google = Microsoft (Score:5, Interesting)

    by scaltagi_the_pirate ( 777620 ) on Thursday January 26, 2006 @05:51PM (#14573076) Homepage
    Google will have the same problem as Microsoft in this area, lack of a consistent platform and user play-back device. I think that Apple's success rides on the fact that they control the entire pipeline (sans content creation) and provide the user with a consistent and simple interface, with relative freedom for the user to listen when and where they want. I think that any other distributor will have a problem if they do not control or at least have a very strong influence over the distribution and play-back pipeline.
    • by ackthpt ( 218170 ) *
      Google will have the same problem as Microsoft in this area, lack of a consistent platform and user play-back device.

      I think you'll find Google tend to be better focused. Microsoft wants to tie you into the spiderweb of their product line, rather than sell you something you'll be tickeled with. Google seems to have the grasp of catering to what the market likes.

      • I think you'll find Google tend to be better focused.

        Google is focused? Shit, they're all over the map. Google search - great. Google lanuguage tools, Google News - great, focused on search and simplicity. But then we get to Google video, Google Desktop, Google Earth, Google in China (even though they "do no evil") Google Wi-Fi, etc.

        It seems they have lost any focus and just want to monoolize whatever they can get their hands on.

    • Yup, absolutely (Score:3, Interesting)

      by sterno ( 16320 )
      I use Itunes because Itunes works with my Ipod. I buy stuff through the Itunes music store because it's the music store hooked up to ITunes. It's that tight and effective integration that makes it so powerful. If I want new music, my first instinct is to just click the music store button and find something there. I can have whole albums in a couple minutes, loaded onto my ipod and everything.

      Even if my ipod could use the DRM of some other music store I probably wouldn't bother with it even if the songs
    • I think that Apple's success rides on the fact that they control the entire pipeline (sans content creation) and provide the user with a consistent and simple interface, with relative freedom for the user to listen when and where they want.

      Yes, and Google has absolutely no experience making a consistent and simple interface.
      • by BewireNomali ( 618969 ) on Thursday January 26, 2006 @06:40PM (#14573648)
        you're missing the point. google does not produce an ipod. so they'd be producing a consisten and simple interface to WHAT?

        part of the reason interfaces can be simple and consistent is because the number of variables are controlled and greatly reduced. Not so if you're dealing with a multitude of hardware and software specifications. They need an IPOD-type device as good as the IPOD or better - and an interface as good as ITUNES or better, and a catalog as good as ITUNES or better. And they need those things yesterday, as time is of the essence. Otherwise, they're one of the million other guys selling music on the web, which is to say, no competition to Apple.

        this is more about a stock run-up. Google is a stock run-up, and the media is regularly seeded with google talk to keep that stock price moving.
      • Google has absolutely no experience making a consistent and simple interface.

        That is indeed true. Once you go beyond their main search page - Google have terrible interfaces. Look at the interface on Google video. Just what the hell is that consistent with?

        As far as the minimalist appearance of the main Google page - it simply does not count as interface design. It's just "not putting ads and shit everywhere." Google uses the interfaces that others have created for the GUI and web browser of the host compu

  • by hal2814 ( 725639 ) on Thursday January 26, 2006 @05:51PM (#14573077)
    I tried Googling for more info about this but all I got was some general information about the iTunes service and this at the bottom of the screen:

    "According to local laws and policies, some search results are not shown."
    • I'm not sure what country you're from, but here's what I saw:
      In response to a complaint we received under the US Digital Millennium Copyright Act, we have removed 1 result(s) from this page. If you wish, you may read the DMCA complaint that caused the removal(s) at ChillingEffects.org.
      Can Google serve
  • Format? (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Artie Dent ( 929986 ) on Thursday January 26, 2006 @05:51PM (#14573079) Homepage
    I'm wondering which format Google will be selling songs in. Methinks that it will either use a popular format with widespred compatability (mp3 or something like it) or go the iTunes route, and simulatneously release a free (and hopefully good) music player and organizer that supports a new compression. It would be interesting to see Google go head to head with Apple in a music format war.
    • The last thing we need is a new compression model. I don't see anything wrong with MPEG-4 audio [wikipedia.org], especially with the current mass hysteria of iPods and video iPods behind it.
    • >It would be interesting to see Google go head to head with Apple in a music format war.

      The format war was already won by Apple. They won it with their hardware. No one else's music is going to sell well, unless it plays on an ipod.

  • Good luck Google (Score:5, Insightful)

    by winkydink ( 650484 ) * <sv.dude@gmail.com> on Thursday January 26, 2006 @05:51PM (#14573083) Homepage Journal
    Apple hasn't so much created a technology as they have a lifestyle that specifically includes iTunes and an iPod, not any old mp3 player and download service. No competitor has come close. Google will be no different in that regard. Apple comes with a cachet that Google annot approach when it comes to "coolness" with Joe Sixpack.
    • by tpgp ( 48001 ) on Thursday January 26, 2006 @06:16PM (#14573391) Homepage
      I suspect that you're right - but for all the wrong reasons.

      Apple hasn't so much created a technology as they have a lifestyle that specifically includes iTunes and an iPod, not any old mp3 player and download service.

      Apple have created neither a technology nor a lifestyle, they've popularised a technology and tapped into a lifestyle. The download serice is far less important then you think too - ipods were huge in Australia prior to the itunes launch.

      Everyone I know (in the Netherlands) with an iPod has either ripped or pirated mp3s on it.

      No competitor has come close. Google will be no different in that regard. Apple comes with a cachet that Google annot approach when it comes to "coolness" with Joe Sixpack.

      Apple got in first, but they've really only tapped a tiny fraction of the potential market. If google licenses fairplay or (gasp) sells non-drm'd mp3s.... then who knows?

      Unlikely because Apple is unlikely to license the former & the music industry is extremely unlikely to allow the latter.
    • Apple hasn't so much created a technology as they have a lifestyle ...

      [serious]
      I hope not, "lifestyle" often equals "fad".
      [/serious]

      [humorous]
      Personally I'm hoping the iPod is not another flower-power or dalmation print iMac.
      [/humorous]
    • for convincing people that expensive, low quality, DRM crippled tunes are somehow "cool."

      Me, I buy used CDs and get cheap, high quality, no-DRM tunes. I guess I'm just not cool.

  • This won't work... (Score:3, Insightful)

    by NickCatal ( 865805 ) on Thursday January 26, 2006 @05:51PM (#14573085)
    Unless Google can figure out a way to get this to work with iPods... and makes an interface that doesn't suck (Google Video Store is very lacking compared to the ITMS)... AND has something "unique" to their service (lower price isn't going to work) they are screwed...

    Going with an actual application instead of an AJAX interface is a departure from Google's business plan... but it is inevitable if they even think they may want to get into this market...
  • Ooh! (Score:5, Funny)

    by metlin ( 258108 ) * on Thursday January 26, 2006 @05:51PM (#14573086) Journal
    This should be fun.

    Google-heads vs. Apple-heads.

    GARGHHH! Do no evil (*) and Trendy Jeans & Turtleneckers.

    *restrictions apply
  • by Otter ( 3800 ) on Thursday January 26, 2006 @05:51PM (#14573089) Journal
    ...but otherwise I'd be skeptical of an analyst who thinks iTMS is a "web site".
  • by EVil Lawyer ( 947367 ) on Thursday January 26, 2006 @05:51PM (#14573091)
    Google, please don't repeat the Google Video fiasco. Get a rock-solid product going--even if it's bare-bones--before shoving it out the door. I am not suggesting you hold it back until it's a "finished product," contrary to your usual way of doing things [google.com]. Rather, what I'm saying is, if you are going to release it in "beta," make sure the functionality that is available is actually functional and lives up to that Googly-goodness that we have come to expect.
    • How about getting the people who did Picassa to work on the interface? Picassa has single-handedly got the "Best Interface EVER" award from me simply because it appears so polished.
    • "Google, please don't repeat the Google Video fiasco."

      Fiasco? did i miss that? Google video owns, i get links forwarded to content they host all the time... want proof?

      look no further! [google.com]

      and its WAY better than WMP or quicktime video *shudder*

      • and its WAY better than WMP or quicktime video *shudder*

        Are you fucking kidding me? The video on Google's service looks terrible. It uses Flash, for Dog's sake. A well encoded Quicktime movie (especially H.264) looks far better than anything else. Just look at Apple's movie trailers for example. Absolutely stunning. Where are the Windows Media or Flash videos that look as good as those movie trailers?

        • well id rather have crappyier(sp?) video quality and a player that can actually REMEMBER MY VOLUME SETTINGS... something that apple has failed to master.

          I blew out a cone on my speaker because of stupid quicktime starting all videos at max volume. AT least google video doesnt own my hardware :P

          as for owning video quality, (which i would argue is not the reason why google video is nice anyways), the compromise between size and quality goes to divx. qt files are huge comparatively.
          • well id rather have crappyier(sp?) video quality and a player that can actually REMEMBER MY VOLUME SETTINGS...

            You know, you edon't have to play Quicktime videos in Quicktime. Use iTunes, VLC, or any number of third-party players. Another thing not possible with Google video. Apple's DRM works in any application that uses Quicktime for playback.

            I do find your priorities rather odd - the default volume setting being more important than video quality?

            the compromise between size and quality goes to divx. qt

  • by aduzik ( 705453 ) on Thursday January 26, 2006 @05:54PM (#14573123) Homepage

    From the summary: Further, Nielsen indicates that iTunes users form a distinct target audience with brand preferences along autos, alcohol beverages, magazines, and television,' he added.

    While I believe that this sentence is true, it is also incomplete. iTunes users also form a distinct target audience with brand preferences along MP3 players. Unless Google can somehow find a way to sell music that both plays on iPods and satisfies the record labels' requirement for DRM, they're not going to get anywhere. The only technology that can do this is FairPlay, and it's not for sale or license at any price.

    The explosive growth of unique visitors to the iTunes Music Store is the result of one thing: the explosive growth of sales of iPods (particularly to new users). While it is interesting that there are trends among the buyers of iPods, I don't see how Google, or anyone else for that matter, will be able to offer a real competitor to the iTunes Music Store. I have no doubt of Google's ability to launch a great music service, but there's simply no way they can sell a product that really competes with the iTunes Music Store.

    • The explosive growth of unique visitors to the iTunes Music Store is the result of one thing: the explosive growth of sales of iPods (particularly to new users).

      This is 90% true - but I know about a dozen people who don't use iPods, but are registered for iTunes. Why? Because of the free song of the week to download, and the fact you can burn them to a regular Audio CD. Sure, they probably heard about the iTunes store from iPod owners, but still.

  • by gothzilla ( 676407 ) on Thursday January 26, 2006 @05:54PM (#14573131)
    Since Google are the kings of search, they know exactly how much demand there is for EVERYTHING. They can sift through their data and see what markets have a huge demand and then dominate them. I wouldn't be surprised if in a few years Google entered new markets that had nothing to do with technology and surprised everyone with massive sales, all because they can read the minds of millions of people and know what they need and want in a way that no marketing company could ever even dream of.
    You can bet that any market they enter will be one with a much larger demand than supply, since they are the easiest to be profitable with. I wonder how many times a day "mp3" is entered into a google search bar.
    • Yes, except that iTunes doesn't sell mp3s, in fact, none of the major online music companies do. If Google wanted to actually compete with iTunes, they will have to sell music in forms that can be played on the iPod, such as mp3 or ACC. Or, Google can go the complete other way and make their own music player to sell their music, but again, they will need to comete with the iPod. As long as Apple claims the market for music players, it will control the music sales. With Apple owning roughly 80% of the mu
      • I used the term "mp3" because it has been the most popular song format for a long time, hence it would be a term most searched for. I don't hear people say "Hey, how many AAC's you got?" I hear "How many mp3's you got?"

        Second, name a product Apple has managed to have dominant sales in for any length of time. Every single time they come out with a product that's pretty good and popular, they manage to lose dominance in a short amount of time. They're much better at selling to the minority than to the majorit
    • Information is King and Google is King of Search. But Google is not King of Information.

      By which I mean that yes, they have formidable analytic capability, but it is centered around publically accessible information. Since Google's foundation is providing that capability to the public, Apple can simply use Google's own search capability to mine the internet, or they can leverage a competitors search capability, or both. They can hire people (as they already do) to assess their particular market.

      Googl

      • "By which I mean that yes, they have formidable analytic capability, but it is centered around publically accessible information."

        Um lol? Every professional big time website that i have worked behind does some sort of metrics on its users. Do you honestly think google doesnt have a big ole log of everything accessed by every IP?

        how else would they fine tune their advertising business?

        trust me your not at all anonymous when you use google, or any website for that matter. because of googles position, they hav
    • Based on your estimations then, Google will be entering the Porn industry in the next 5 minutes.
    • While Google does have a tremendous database of what people think, the iTunes music store has a pretty similar amount of data, all related to what people search for, what people request, and what people actually buy.

      While Google has more scope in terms of what they are looking at, Apple's knowledge of what people actually buy is pretty valuable too. Amazon has also leveraged this kind of data to great advantage.

      An example of where Apple might actually have more accurate data - only Apple knows what the mos
  • by Mr. Underbridge ( 666784 ) on Thursday January 26, 2006 @05:55PM (#14573137)
    Further, Nielsen indicates that iTunes users form a distinct target audience with brand preferences along autos, alcohol beverages, magazines, and television

    Yeah, it's called emo.

    • All Google really has to do is market to people other than the pretentious import beer crowd. Apple seems to have a rather well defined and limited market. They may have the lion's share of sales by virtue of being the first online music store to be percieved as legitimate. However, it sounds like there's plenty of market out there for everyone else.
  • no news (Score:4, Insightful)

    by akhomerun ( 893103 ) on Thursday January 26, 2006 @05:56PM (#14573159)
    napster to compete with iTunes? MSN to compete with iTunes? Rhapsody to compete with iTunes?

    Yeah, okay, they do, but iTunes won't be dethroned UNTIL the iPod is. Google may come the closest, but I doubt it. Just cause it says "Google" on it doesn't mean it will automatically become the most popular.
    • Re:no news (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Have Blue ( 616 )
      It's even better than that:
      • iTunes won't be dethroned until the iPod is.
      • The iPod won't be dethroned until the ITMS is.
      • The ITMS won't be dethroned until iTunes is.

      Even if a company manages to beat one of those products on technical merits (and even making the attempt is out of reach of all but a handful of companies right now), the existence and interaction/interdependence of the other two will keep Apple on top. No iPod user will switch to a music player that doesn't play their ITMS collection or doesn

    • maybe google is testing the waters prior to its gPod launch. (i'd hit it.)
  • If it is anything like their video service it will be horrible. Using the same type of DRM would make portable players useless since you need an internet connection to play them. Ridiculous and completely useless to me. Hopefully they will get a clue and move to a more workable system.

  • by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 26, 2006 @06:02PM (#14573226)
    Cuz Google Tunes will probably look like Google Video [google.com].
  • Overrated (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Piroca ( 900659 )

    Google has produced no really interesting things in the last year or so. Actually, most of their new products are quite bad, yet fanboys keep pushing for the google-is-cool mantra. There's no way they could make a desktop application as good as itunes, and a decent store in order to compete with Apple if they use the same mediocre approach they've used with google video or google desktop. Maybe it's just because we're yet to see what's all about them, but so far they have adopted a microsoft-like business
  • I think the huge advantage Google has over most competitors is a spare cash. After all, it wouldn't cost them so much to subsidise most of the price of each song to RIAA or any other proper authority, and then offer users a song at any price which will be attractive. And with iTunes's 0.99$ a song, you don't have to knock off this much - every little helps, so even 0.50$ will seem pretty good :)
  • I like that with video, Google let the content owner decide how much to sell for, and Google just added their own fees on top. Much better than the Steve Jobs I think all songs are worth $0.99 model, and don't you dare contradict me, even if it's your music I'm selling model. However, as others have said, if they can't sell fairplay drm'ed aac files to iPod owners, they're market will be small.
  • No more predictions (Score:4, Interesting)

    by sbrown123 ( 229895 ) on Thursday January 26, 2006 @06:14PM (#14573376) Homepage
    I am sick and tired of every other week some self-proclaimed "expert" will predict Googles next big move. Sorry, please forgive me but I think I lost it somewhere back there with the Google browser or the Google operating system. I get the same thing reading articles about Ruby. People don't see that the big Ruby craze is generated by book publishers and writers who are unable to find a new title for the next .NET or Java book. Hell, Ruby has been around much longer than both. What next: C will become the new "hot" programming language? Geez. Go peddle your "Web 2.0" crap somewhere else thankyou.
  • by Orrin Bloquy ( 898571 ) on Thursday January 26, 2006 @06:21PM (#14573448) Journal
    Remember, Rob Enderle is also "an industry analyst" which usually means shill. When they work for an investment firm, it's Salomon all over again.

    Google's got interesting technology, none of it theirs beyond the search engine. Maps? AJAX. Google Talk? GAIM. Have we seen any kind of clear synergy suggesting a stable, extensible platform? No.

    What they *have* is a strong infrastructure for hosting and serving data and a hard-on for repeatedly proving their servers won't get borked by constant enterprise-level usage. That's impressive.

    Passing themselves off as a media portal is another demonstration of how butch their server tech is, but the thing you tend to notice is that when their technology gets further from their servers and closer to your desktop, the more mediocre it gets.

    All of this is subject to change. But for now, their signature is showing off what they can achieve with asynchronous relations between their servers and your browser. Everything else is hype: "Do no evil" withers in the face of Chinese grousing. Interoperability goes poof when rushing video to market.

    It's all about the bandwidth with Google. Don't fool yourself otherwise.
  • by AeroIllini ( 726211 ) <aeroillini@NOSpam.gmail.com> on Thursday January 26, 2006 @06:23PM (#14573473)
    Google May Be Close To Creating God Competitor

    1.26.2006
    by AeroIllini

    Industry analysts announced today that they believe Google may start entering into the business of deities.

    "This is a logical move for Google," said the analyst in a note never intended for publication. "With the success of their Google Maps and Google Earth planet-creating technology, expanding to entire universes and mythologies is the next logical step. This fits neatly into Google's ultimate goal of organizing the world and it's information."

    Continuing his wild speculation, the analyst said, "We believe that Google may roll out a beta Deity, on par with one of the lesser Egyptian gods, by summer. We would like to note, however, that Google has not confirmed our theories, and that all this is based on a conversation we had last week while stoned."

    The analysts maintained a $666 price target on this stock.

    "The selection of this target price was right in line with the possibility that Google would roll out a direct competitor with God. But we have faith that because of Google's 'Do No Evil' policy, this competitor will quickly supplant God and take His rightful place in the Heavens."

    Should Google decide to enter the Deity market, it would find it crowded. The current market leaders include the Judeo-Christian God (nasdaq - GOD), with 2.2 billion customers, the Islamic Allah (nasdaq - ALLH), with 1.3 billion customers, and Vishnu (nasdaq - SHVA), with 900 million customers, among many others. Google is expected to report its fourth-quarter earnings next Tuesday.
  • by Control Group ( 105494 ) on Thursday January 26, 2006 @06:26PM (#14573507) Homepage
    Why don't I just go ahead and save some analyst's copy editor some time by putting together a list of the next few headlines they'll need:

    Google To Take On Photoshop
    Google To Start Chip Fab
    Google To Declare Indpendence
    Google vs. Mecha-Godzilla!

    *eyeroll*
  • Google is more likely to provide itms url's from it's song linke result than to turn into a iTunes competitor. Instead, look for a partnership between Google and Apple whereby Google auto-advertises for Apple in this manner.

    They want to index the worlds information, not distribute it. It's only when there is an inadequate sandbox to store the information that Google fills a void (read: google video). Music does not suffer from this.

    But you can imagine what that will do with both parties' stock prices.
  • Because what consumers really need another online music store. Of course, if it's anything like their poorly received [bloomberg.com] video store, I don't think that Apple has a lot to worry about.

    They already have a very good music search [google.com] feature, why not just grow that service and use the same click-through ad model? It even has links to music download services, which makes it much easier to evaluate which music store has the music you want. It'd be nice if they could grow this service using the same click-through mod
  • 'Further, Nielsen indicates that iTunes users form a distinct target audience with brand preferences along autos, alcohol beverages, magazines, and television,' he added. "

    In other words, iTunes users form a specialty (niche ?) market and the bulk of the population does not use iTunes. So Apple has no DRM lock-in and iPod could be displaced. I'm not arguing that this will happen, I'm just debunking the myth that Apple/iPod is untouchable because of iTunes DRM lock-in. iPod is untouchable at the moment b
  • I am sorry but does Apple make a great fortune on the iTunes Store? Last time I heard, they were just breaking even. The whole point of the store was to sell more ipods. It work in my case. I never purchased music before iTunes because I didn't like searching all day through Walmart or BestBuy for CDs. Once I had purchase a music collection from iTunes, I bought an iPod to listen to it. Now, what is in it for Google? Is $.10 or $.5 profit per song really worth the effort or are they releasing their own "ipo
  • Now we know the final step:

    1. Become Call yourself an "analyst".
    2. Randomly select any technology, platform, website or whatever that's currently "en vogue" - let's call that X.
    3. Declare that Google will / should (your choice) enter the X market / create a competitor to X.
    4. PROFIT!!!
  • One way Google could address this, is not only to release thier own iTunes alike to browse/buy music and video... but also a replacement OS for the iPod that supports their own DRM.

    I'm actually a little surprised we have not seen this happen already.

    I am a little surprised with the sophistication of GMail that the Video store is so primitive. I had thought they might try to replicate an iTunes experience in the browser.
  • One of those must have been me.

    When Quicktime told me (on an XP pc) to update I did. It installed iTunes also (I didn't figure out how to disable this) and I belive I was taken to the iTunes web site.

    Forced page hits should not count as real page hits.
  • Google will never compete with iTunes as a pay-for-service for any product that they can't give away in some form. I believe Google sees the problems with copyright and how hard it will be to enforce it as the time goes on (in fact, I believe Google will be one of the guys helping me in my quest to break down IP in some ways).

    Google loves to aggregate data, sort it, maybe turn it into some other form (picture, map, etc) and spew it back to the user in a way that is useful to them. They'll throw some AdWor
  • Anyone remember the catastraphy that was Google Video store? Do we really want a google itunes? I would like un DRM'd legal bought MP3's , but not from google. Google is an advertising company and if they want to make a music store they need , A: A graphic designer (google video store looks like crap) B: A UI expert (Google video is impossible to navigate) C: A website that isn't .google.
  • Nielsen indicates that iTunes users form a distinct target audience with brand preferences along autos, alcohol beverages,

    By 'alcohol beverages' they mean these iTunes users will tend to drink more Hard Cider and certain other brands. [internetwines.com]

He has not acquired a fortune; the fortune has acquired him. -- Bion

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