Drop in P2P Traffic Attributed To Traffic Shaping 251
An anonymous reader writes "A new report based on data from 100 US and European ISPs claims P2P traffic has dropped to around 20% of all Internet traffic. This is down from the 40% two years ago (also reported by the same company which sells subscriber traffic management equipment to ISPs). The report goes on to say the drop is likely due to continued, widespread ISP P2P shaping: 'In fact, the P2P daily trend is pretty much completely inverted from daily traffic. In other words, P2P reaches its low at 4pm when web and overall Internet traffic approaches its peak ... trend is highly suggestive of either persistent congestion or, more likely, evidence of widespread provider manipulation of P2P traffic rates.'"
Another possible cause (Score:4, Insightful)
There may be a "market saturation" effect. I know people who were downloading gigabytes a month (maybe a week) of songs and videos, but in the past year or two they have tapered off. They've gotten most of the stuff they've wanted, and now are just listening to and watching it.
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
I know people who were downloading gigabytes a month (maybe a week) of songs and videos, but in the past year or two they have tapered off. They've gotten most of the stuff they've wanted, and now are just listening to and watching it.
From first hand experience I can agree with that to a degree, however I believe it's a multitude of factors playing out here.Traffic Shaping as well as more aggressive bandwidth caps and the increased availability of residential low priced, low allowance pay per GB plans and perhaps to a lesser to degree more people getting more things done with mobile data plans (iphone, non wifi laptop access). That being said, I've found the speed of my torrents at any time of the day much greater than say a year ago.
Re:Another possible cause (Score:5, Insightful)
The reason is obvious - there are now easier ways to get free music. Just go to last.fm or Spotify.
Finally we are seeing sites that "get it" and can successfully compete with free.
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And movies / tv shows. I watch a reasonable amount on iPlayer, and the company I rent DVDs from has also just launched a streaming service (not free, but included in the same monthly subscription I was paying anyway). All of this runs over HTTP. As a result, the amount of HTTP bandwidth I've used has grown hugely; a single TV show over iPlayer uses the same as a lot of casual browsing, especially if you browse with Flash disabled.
CD and DVD image torrents have probably gone down a fair amount too as b
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
Or maybe, like I've done, people are switching back to direct downloading.
Why waste your time installing and setting up an application (incl. firewall settings), when you can pay 55 euro por a year of rapidshare and download anything from anywhere?
eMule used to be really popular in Spain, with elinks flooding forums all around. Now it's all rapidshare, megaupload, easyshare...
Re:Another possible cause (Score:5, Insightful)
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A lot of P2P users out there aren't aware that they're sharing their whole drive, and you want them to know about port forwarding? What about those situations in which you're not in charge of the network?
The only thing I pointed out is that, from my own experience, I've seen many P2P sites and forums which have left torrents and elinks behind, in favor of file hosting services like Rapidshare.
Believe it or not, the majority of file sharers don't belong to that elite you seem to be speaking for, and that mam
Re:Another possible cause (Score:5, Insightful)
"A lot of P2P users out there aren't aware that they're sharing their whole drive"
Sorry, that's not a P2P program. That's a trojan. Doesn't matter if the trojan is named eMule, Bearshare, and that the firewall/AV/malware filter accepts it - it's still a trojan.
We've read about Skype's hidden "features" of recording and forwarding conversations. When configured to do so, that's a trojan.
By definition, anything that forwards information without the user's informed consent is a trojan.
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If you have trouble setting up uTorrent, you don't belong here.
Most internet users aren't here. Most internet users probably find a direct download to be easier.
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Could there be anything more middle class than paying to use a service to download things you refuse to pay for?
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And... another step backwards... *great* :/
First they come up with Torrent, which is a step backward from even eDonkey, which itself got superseded by decentral networks and anonymous networks.
Now they download from websites again?
NO! It's just the retards out there who never heard of real file sharing, and therefore can't imagine its advantages.
But they will soon learn... when rapidfail, megacrapload and easyfail are going to be targeted by the media industry at the exact weak spot that we solved long ago:
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Interestingly enough, I discovered a few days ago that my ISP offers access to its own "free unlimited downloads music website" to all their broadband subscribers (without any additional charges), which again suggests that P2P networks are seen as dangerous not because they distribute content for free, but because they are free to distribute without corporate control.
Comment removed (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Another possible cause (Score:5, Interesting)
You forget to factor in that the vast majority of the "good stuff" is old, so people have now gotten all the "good stuff" and now just trickle download the more rare "new good stuff".
I think what they should do is dump all the good movies and shit on one server, get it properly sorted, then once people have their huge fucking collection up to date we just RSYNC from there and get the latest, could even mirror it locally on ISPs to save on international bandwidth.
Re:Another possible cause (Score:4, Insightful)
Indeed. Many popular TV series are between seasons right now. This ridiculously long lapse between seasons is utterly destroying me! I have to think and use my mind now and sometimes it hurts!
Re:Another possible cause (Score:5, Funny)
Ahh, I have the answer.
Head over to thepiratebay.org, grab all of season 1 of Full House.
This serves 2 purposes.
1, takes up the all important empty space in both your download queue and in your HDD
2, gives you something to delete when it comes time to "slim down my collection to save space" and you won't miss it
Just for the love of satan, don't watch the damn thing :)
ISP awareness (Score:3, Insightful)
there has to be more to this. obviously the ISP's are very aware of P2P networks. They market this in commercials that say "download music at increased rates!" which are in context about purchasing mp3's but belie the fact that they provide infrastructure to P2P networks, and anti-IP scenes.
And im not saying that this is a bad thing...
Re:ISP awareness (Score:4, Informative)
tangentially related to your post...
A major ISP in NL, Ziggo, has changed their commercials from "download movies" to "download movie trailers". I guess they felt pressure somewhere. Which is a bit silly as there -are- movie 'rental' places online where it would definitely be legal to download movies - even if downloading movies wasn't already legal under current law anyway. (distributing is another matter)
Re:ISP awareness (Score:5, Interesting)
You're right. There IS more to this. What has happened over the last two years? People have spent more time downloading videos off hulu.com or youtube.com or other video-sharing sites,
As a result overall traffic has gone up, while peer-to-peer has remained relatively steady. Therefore P2P has dropped relative to all the other traffic on the web, even though people are still downloading the same amount as always.
in other news... (Score:4, Insightful)
... usenet usage has grown to 25% of all internet traffic. people move on (or in this case back) to safer technologies. the xIAA are targeting P2P users, so people move away from P2P.
what's traffic shaping got to do with it?
Re:in other news... (Score:5, Funny)
shh you!
Re:in other news... (Score:4, Informative)
SSH you!
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the xIAA are targeting P2P users, so people move away from P2P. what's traffic shaping got to do with it?
All the non-techie people I know continue to use P2P like it was the year 2000. It's only the people who know their oats that use any other services or protocols, and most of those guys switched when Metallica went apeshit at the start of the century.
Nothing changed over the xIAA lawsuits, as far as I can tell.
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the xIAA are targeting P2P users, so people move away from P2P. what's traffic shaping got to do with it?
All the non-techie people I know continue to use P2P like it was the year 2000. It's only the people who know their oats that use any other services or protocols, and most of those guys switched when Metallica went apeshit at the start of the century.
Nothing changed over the xIAA lawsuits, as far as I can tell.
Or, which is likelier, most peopel just switched to encrypted p2p, which means that even if they know it looks like p2p traffic, they can't sue you over it because it's illegal to prove there was something illegal inside the encrypted traffic.
Problem solved.
Here ya go... (Score:3, Funny)
best feed around [purinamills.com]
Scheduling (Score:5, Interesting)
Much more likely people are rescheduling their P2P downloads to run outside of peak hours. I know my ISP (Virgin Media) throttles connection speeds during peak hours, so I schedule anything I want to download to run outside of those times.
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When p2p started out, few people understood the benefits of self-throttling during the day. If I let my torrents run during the day, everyone in my house can feel it so I have it throttled down. Then from midnight to 7:00am, it unthrottles and blasts away at full speed.
Dial-up a decade ago (Score:2)
When p2p started out, few people understood the benefits of self-throttling during the day.
When p2p first started out a decade ago, a lot of users were still on metered dial-up, and people downloaded singles, not albums. It just wasn't practical for a P2P program to dial the internet, search for a song that may or may not be available at a given moment, download it, and automatically shut down the PPP link.
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I download over dialup when traveling. It takes about 7 hours per television episode, or 3 episodes per day... just enough to keep me busy after getting back from the job.
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Schedule? You switch you server OFF?
What? You don't even have a separate computer for it??
Please turn in your geek card! Thanks! ;)
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>>>pain to surf while some torrent is sucking up all your bandwidth.... reminds me of being back on dial up
All you have to do is dial-down your Torrent software's speed to 60 kilobyte/second. That's what I do which allows me 25 KB/s for browsing.... or about five times faster than dialup.
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60kb/s?? Jeez, I could dial it to 1MB/s and still have bandwidth to spare O_O
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I'm sure you can but my internet still downloads movies/TV shows faster than I can keep up (in other words my HDD is full), and it only costs $14.99 a month. How much is yours?
And while we're discussing budgeting here's some other ways I save money:
- cable TV - $0.00.* I use an antenna instead and get ~35 channels
- cellphone - $0 a month at 18 cents/minute
- credit cards - most give1% off; one of them gives 5% for gasoline & food purchases
*
* another alternative I've considered is Dish which is only $20
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15 Euros for cFoss? I'll stick to http://lartc.org/wondershaper/ [lartc.org]
Linux gateways make sense because the firewall, the AV, the traffic shaper, everything runs at no monetary cost.
As someone above pointed out - it's ironic to pay for services and software that enable you to download stuff you aren't willing to pay for......
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WTF do golf and geeks have in common? Thinking here...
Alright, maybe I've got it. Golfers have this inadequacy thing, which they try to compensate for by hammering their balls as far across a field as possible.
Geeks don't worry about their inadequacies to much - they just reach in their pockets and fondle their balls.
Balls. Cherishyou is a golfing geek? hmmmmmmmm Female? Hmmmmmmm Maybe she should hang with a different crowd. Bikers come to mind.
Isn't much worth downloading as of late. (Score:4, Insightful)
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There really hasn't been all that much worth downloading as of late... the new content coming out just isn't all that good, be it games, movies or music.
Finally, an anti-piracy strategy that might actually have an effect. This could save the industry!
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I'm sure we'll see a small up tick when the new Star Trek movie hits the underground though.
Uhh, it already has. It was on Freenet (0.5) a few months ago.
Rise in paid downloading? (Score:2)
Or could it also be that paid-for downloads and streaming audio and video have increased, thus decreasing the share of P2P traffic in the total?
(No I didn't RTFA, it's way too early for that)
The only thing killing p2p in the UK is Spotify. (Score:5, Insightful)
Even my CD collection is gathering dust, finally music streaming that just works.
Re:The only thing killing p2p in the UK is Spotify (Score:5, Funny)
Poor analysis (Score:5, Insightful)
"The report goes on to say the drop is likely due to continued, widespread ISP P2P shaping"
The data allows no such conclusion to be drawn. In fact, since all they've done is compared P2P as a percent of total traffic, it's probably more likely that the total traffic has increased.
Re:Poor analysis (Score:5, Insightful)
Whereas (although I couldn't find anything specifying the actual dates) the data for the study two years ago seems to have been taken earlier in the year.
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Also, video-sharing sites have had explosive growth in the last two-years, so it's normal that P2P is a smaller percentage of the total, now.
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The data for this report was taken during week days in July, when most big TV series are on a break (and as a consequence there is a lot less to download).
Screw TV; July is the time for cams and telesyncs of theatrical blockbusters.
Other reading (Score:2)
The other 80% (Score:5, Funny)
...is ofcource spam and porn.
Can we do traffic-shaping of spam?
If so I suggest this shedule:
12pm-8am: 100% drop
8am-4pm: 100% drop
4pm-12pm: 100% drop
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i dont know which internet you are surfing but round here its all turned to kittens
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Delete your MX records, I guarantee a 100% drop in spam.
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Can we do traffic-shaping of spam?
If so I suggest this shedule:
12pm-8am: 100% drop
8am-4pm: 100% drop
4pm-12pm: 100% drop
Certainly. Ask your e-mail provider about installing blacklists.
Non P2P Substitute (Score:3, Interesting)
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Personally, while my demand for content has actually changed, I am also preferring streaming video to downloads.
Conversely, people who are away from home more often than not and who can't afford $60 per month for a mobile data plan prefer downloads.
More reasonable explanation (Score:5, Insightful)
So torrents used to compose 40% of traffic. Now it's 20%. What's changed in the last year?
* youporn.com and similar sites have popped up where they did not previously.
* hulu.com now exists.
That right there could easily cover 90% of people's media interests. Especially now that I'm not really into movies as much as I used to be (they suck more, and TV shows are, in some ways, getting better).
Re:More reasonable explanation (Score:4, Interesting)
Interesting, my main change in P2P habits is due to the fact that most of the stuff I want is on rapidshare or megaupload, so instead of searching on thepiratebay or eMule (which I hardly use anymore because of that), I search on filestube. I used to download torrents of entire seasons of TV shows, but now all I gotta do is find the episode I want on megaupload, and as soon as it starts downloading I start watching it by opening the .part file with VLC.
But as for the real cause of the difference between day and night, QoS? Seems obvious.. Nothing necessarily malicious coming from the ISPs, for one thing they're right to have QoS for more time-dependant traffic, and then if you yourself watch YouTube or download some files over HTTP then your P2P traffic is gonna take a hit.
Part 2 of The Internet After Dark (Score:2)
No drop (Score:2)
Bullshit. There is no drop. P2P traffic is still increasing. It's just not increasing as fast as the youtube traffic.
For me... (Score:2)
Generally speaking, anime works bett
Re: (Score:2)
NetInst distros (Score:4, Funny)
The drop in traffic is easy to explain. Most distros nowadays have a NetInst option, where you can download a small CD to boot off, then download only the packages you need.
All that P2P traffic IS just "Linux ISOs", right?
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P2P has other legitimate uses! World of Warcraft updates, of course!
Obvious explanation: encryption (Score:4, Informative)
I can't believe that in all those comments nobody mentioned the most likely reason for those numbers:
Encryption.
Most of the P2P traffic will be Bittorrent. All popular bittorrent clients allow to use encryption and random ports to prevent traffic shaping. Encrypted torrent traffic can - to my knowledge - not be detected by the ISP and is most likely counted as normal traffic in the mentioned numbers.
Maybe encryption is not very mainstream yet but the hardcore users will always enabled it (even when their own connection is not limited) because it will result in better speeds. So every encrypted gigabyte they used to download normally affects the numbers twice: it's one less gigabyte of counted P2P traffic and one more gigabyte of counted normal traffic.
On a sitenote: this is also the solution for those affected by traffic shaping: tell you torrent client to encrypt the traffic at all times and watch your speed go up.
Re: (Score:2, Insightful)
Protocol encryption is just obfuscation, it certainly makes it harder for ISPs but can be detected e.g. with flow analysis. The unfortunate reality is that if encryption becomes the default in all major clients (we're not far from this already?) then they will take countermeasures, if they don't interactive performance on their oversold "up to speed X" network will become terrible.
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Maybe they should stop fucking overselling their bandwidth by 500% or whatever ridiculous number they use.
Just a thought. Of course, that would make profits go down, so it can never happen, as profits dropping is, in fact, the end of the entire universe.
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
then they will take countermeasures, if they don't interactive performance on their oversold "up to speed X" network will become terrible.
they could just get us to play nice and use QOS so we can mark out torrent traffic/large downloads as bulk and our browsing as browsing, I suppose that is traffic shaping, but atm virgin broadband work something like this
if they catch bittorrent packets or you have encrypted upload's > ~30Kib/s, then they smash users pings up to ~4s
obviously a lot of pirates are unethical douchebags and will just mark all their packets voip, but providing a way for the rest of us to download nicely (pun intended), will:
*
You *can* detect encrypted bittorrent (Score:4, Insightful)
Encrypted torrent traffic can - to my knowledge - not be detected by the ISP
See http://www.shmoocon.org/2007/speakers.html [shmoocon.org] for Rob King and Rohit Dhamankar on "Encrypted Protocol Identification via Statistical Analysis".
Here's a brief recap: by looking at {mean value, variance} of {packet size, interpacket delays} going {up, down} and packet entropy for a specific flow, you get a point in a nine-dimensional space. Encrypted protocols tend to cluster together.
So here's the ISP algorithm: Measure a flow, find its nearest cluster, guess that behind the encryption is traffic of the protocol belonging in that cluster. If bittorrent, kill.
Note that Rob & Dohit don't look at how many simultaneous connections you make. That also tends to give away P2P traffic.
So the ISP can see you're P2P'ing. They can't detect whether it's illegal, or who should sue you, but they can (probably) see it's bittorrent.
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Too much of a hassle (Score:3, Interesting)
I hardly use any download 'services' because it's just too much of a hassle for me. First you have to find the files you want. Then you have to click through a whole lot of garbage, and after much downloading and waiting and clicking you find that you have downloaded the Spanish version without subtitles. Or something equally unsatisfying. I'd rather pay for the stuff than go through all that. And I guess more and more people think like that. P2P is a victim of its (not it's!) own success. More and more garbage is put on the web, making it too hard to find the good stuff.
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Re: (Score:3, Informative)
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It could also be that the stuff I want is not popular enough to share, although I can hardly imagine that, considering what can be found online. Indeed I don't have the patience to find what I'm looking for, but I have also the choice between buying and downloading. Many students don't have that of course. If I had the choice between not having it and downloading it, because of the money thing, I would probably spend more time finding the stuff I wanted.
Streaming audio and video has taken over (Score:2)
More people are using streaming audio and video to get their content. Hulu. YouTube. Spotify. Last.FM.
Me for example, if I want a song, instead of going to p2p, I just go to YouTube or Google and search for it. If its even remotely popular, I am sure someone has uploaded a suitable video with a suitable version of the song as the audio. Then I can use a YouTube downloader to download the video then FFMPEG to convert it to an audio file.
Great way to find stuff and less likelihood of being sued too (the RIAA
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Yea, most users do this.
Lately, I've just been adding "rapidshare" to the end of a search for any music. It is remarkably successful (and EASIER, and FASTER than your method).
Why bother torrentting any small (100mb) file?
Internet Prime Time (Score:5, Interesting)
I am involved with an Internet streaming site (AmericaFree.TV) and our traffic patterns follow normal Television "Prime Time" - i.e., traffic peaks at roughly 6:00 PM to Midnight in the evening. This happens in the US, Europe and Asia, and the local time zone pattern looks a lot like the "Consumer-Internet traffic" graph (# 2 in the original article [arbornetworks.com]). (Note that all of these graphs do not start at zero traffic, but some higher value, like 50%). In our case (long format video), there appears to be relatively little streaming from at work.
If you look at Craig Labovitz's previous's post, What Europeans do at Night [arbornetworks.com], it appears that European Internet usage drops quickly after dinner time, but I would interpret these graphs a little differently - European traffic starts dropping at 10;00 PM, while US traffic starts dropping at Midnight. This roughly matches what we see, and also European TV viewing patterns (see pages 22 and 23 of this presenation [authorstream.com]). Of course, American TV prime time is pretty similar to Europe's. Putting all of this together, I don't think that streaming video is driving the differences seen by Labovitz.
An interesting corollary of all of this is that there is still substantial bandwidth available for P2P in the hours after midnight. Off-hours P2P use could triple and still not be more than the current day-time use.
In AU, we choose shaped plans to avoid bancrupy! (Score:2)
Australia places very low for Internet cost-effectiveness & reach
- with only costly broadband available to many, even in larger
cities, such as Adelaide, etc.
Very FEW ISP plans offer genuinely (ie, unshaped) "unlimited"
plans, and the ones who do either charge the moon for them
(ie, if faster than 1.5 Mb/Sec) -or- they have speeds at / under
the ADSL 1 speed of 1.5 Mb/Sec - ie, too slow to share in a
larger family or modest university student house.
International students - even some from wealthy Indian famil
Canberra: AUs Moscow in 2009 for Internet service! (Score:2)
In Canberra, ACT only:
Au $20 buys: ...Unlimited data usage - ie, during off-peak hours ...Reasonable speeds: 2 Mb/Sec (down) / 256 Kb/Sec (up)
Hey, why should Aussie ISPs be permitted to limit
their markets to a particular State or Territory, eg ACT,
in the first place?!?
(FYI: The ISP is "Velicity Internet"
and the Plans is "TransACT Big Gig ADSL" )
We found it using Whirlpool.net.au's Plan Search tool,
and (later) confirmed its attributes at ISP's web site.
For anyone wanting essentially unlimited (AH) Internet
s
Re:In AU, we choose shaped plans to avoid bancrupy (Score:3, Funny)
It's rare to find real art like this in a comment form.
My ISP (Score:2, Flamebait)
10/10: 14E
20/20: 28E
50/50: 30E
100/10: 20E
100/100: 40E
No bandwidth limitation or throttling. Also no P2P related case was seen in a court (yet?).
I know, it sucks to be in a 3rd world Internet country like USA. I feel your pain.
Or... (Score:2)
watch streams (Score:2)
we just put them on their own subnet (Score:2)
We just put the p2p users on their own subnet wide open no shaping, then when they max their connections oh well. It keeps he rest of the customers
happy and the p2p users can fight for their bandwidth. Best of all we don't have to worry about people trying to get around the shaping etc they get
what they get.
No possibility of bias from *that* source! (Score:5, Informative)
If I may be allowed to re-order things a bit:
A new report based on data from 100 US and European ISPs claims P2P traffic has dropped to around 20% of all Internet traffic.
The report goes on to say the drop is likely due to continued, widespread ISP P2P shaping
reported by the same company which sells subscriber traffic management equipment to ISPs
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That explanation I doubt, somehow.
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http://www.google.com/search?q=bittorrent+port+80 [google.com]
Just think if, ISP's are shaping 'p2p' traffic by port and then people use some other port for their p2p traffic, one might see a drop in 'p2p' traffic.
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ISP arent shaping by port anymore these days - usually it's some other deep inspection techniques. There's no free/easy solution, and if you think you have one, the ISP's will have a countermeasure just as quickly.
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Sorry I am UK so made assumptions based on that - afaik nobody (major) uses Deep packet Inspection here yet. People have been dropping [guardian.co.uk] Phorm [zdnet.co.uk] trials for the hot potato it is.
Once they do though (I see virgin still seem to be on board, which is worrying to me as cable is the only decent choice in the uk imho) then the users move to the next level (they already know how, but why bother when simple port 80 stuff works for now) ...
http://www.inputoutput.io/how-to-subvert-deep-packet-inspection-the-right-way/ [inputoutput.io]
I ag
When they DPI your shell account too (Score:2)
http://www.inputoutput.io/how-to-subvert-deep-packet-inspection-the-right-way/ [inputoutput.io]
Which requires a subscription to a shell account on a remote server. What provider do you recommend? And what happens when the remote server's ISP is also deep-packet-inspecting?
I think the real answer (from ISP's) is legal downloadable media content with a compelling price.
Let me know when I can lawfully download a copy of Song of the South.
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Well, since the report is provided by Arbor, whom bought the DPI vendor Ellacoya some time ago, we can probably pretty safely say that changing the port doesn't matter.
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Assuming of course that they haven't just conveniently ignored the port jumpers, so that they can report great numbers to push their 'miraculous-p2p-traffic-reducing' software.
Re:Rise in First posts attributed to traffic shapi (Score:5, Interesting)
Fact is:
- absolute P2P traffic volume is not dropping, it's just very slowly increasing
- absolute amount of HTTP traffic nearly doubled since 2007, thanks to major increase in online video and direct download services
=> many people often use DD today instead of P2P for filesharing
=> P2P percentage sharply decreased, not the absolute volume though
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- absolute P2P traffic volume is not dropping, it's just very slowly increasing
Why is it increasing only very slowly? Have the movies gotten smaller? The games perhaps? The downloaders fewer?
Or the more likely version, that ISP's are holding them back. I know they do it with me.
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that ISP's are holding them back.
= shaping and management.
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GP says it's increasing slowly because the technophiles already use it, and normal people just go to http://video.baidu.com/ [baidu.com]
Also, other big services (like, say, video chat, google maps, etc) are breaking into the mainstream.
A corollary (sorry, lemma ... my math is weak nowdays) to that argument is that most people don't want to wait for anything on the internet. If it doesn't start playing immediately (i.e. YouTube), nobody who hasn't heard of slashdot will watch it.
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I strongly disagree, games do get bigger, with more texture, more stuff inside, etc.
Movie and music on the other hand are about the same size. a 5mb mp3 is standard, a 700mb movie too (unless you want a DVDrip with all the (most of the time useless) features)
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I get most of my videos legally from http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer [bbc.co.uk] or http://www.channel4.com/programmes/4od [channel4.com] these days
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