Google Launches a Data Prediction API 70
databuff writes "Google has released a data prediction API. The service helps users leverage historical data to make predictions that can guide real-time decisions. According to Google, the API can be used for prediction tasks ranging from product recommendations to churn analysis (predicting which customers are likely to switch to another provider). The API involves three simple steps: upload the data, train the model, then generate predictions. The API is currently available on an invitation-only basis." Google also recently announced several other API additions, including Buzz, Fonts, and Storage.
I can do that too (Score:1, Offtopic)
Despite history (and having really good access to historical information), will people keep making stupid choices, voting for someone that screws them in the end and buying products that they think will make them happy but end up at the next garage sale for 90% off.
Yes
I Predict ... (Score:2, Insightful)
I Predict ... (Score:1)
Three simple steps? How about four. (Score:2, Funny)
2. Train the model.
3. Generate predictions.
4. PROFIT!!!!
Re:Three simple steps? How about four. (Score:4, Funny)
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Think of the step you're thinking of as being more of an extension of step 3... "3.b)
That's the power of Cloud Computing.
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mod parent parent up.
mod parent up.
Let's see if predict the end (Score:1)
Psychohistory ? (Score:3, Interesting)
What about feeding it with historical events, train with the outcome from these events and try to get a glimpse at which way the future will evolve ?
Re:Psychohistory ? (Score:4, Interesting)
Or use the last half of your data set as blind data. Train the model on 1900-1990 and see if it can predict 1990-2000.
How far can you predict? 1%, 10%, 50%?
If you want to really see how good it is feed it stock market data and see how well it predicts that.
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Stock market data by itself is insufficient to predict the stock market because of all the external variables. It would be impossible to predict the post 9-11 crash for instance because there is nothing in the markets that changed leading up to it. It would be difficult to predict the more recent meltdown because it was caused by a combination of lax oversight, repealed laws, semi-legal trading techniques, and a culture of over borrowing. It's possible that you may be able to predict the minute to minute
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The nice thing about the stock market is that when everything is fine the analysts say that their models are great, but when something unexpected happens they go all "but we couldn't have foreseen that. Except for this unexpected incident, our models are great!". The problem is that these "unforeseen incidents" are what drives most of the extreme changes in the stock market, and more generally, in our entire society.
Just look at 9/11 (to use your example): It not only affected the economy, it affected (and
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+1! "Past performance is not a predictor of future success." Taleb is my hero. Everyone should read Fooled by Randomness, which I didn't find repetitive at all.
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There is a 97.5% chance that this could all end badly.
Good book :)
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Dear google.. (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Dear google.. (Score:4, Funny)
Every male in your family tree has had sex at least once, so the odds look good for you.
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He is the only recorded male in his family tree. All women in his family were artificially inseminated. All the sperm donors were virgins.
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Odds don't look so good, there was this one woman a LONG time ago. Kid but no sex. Check ancestry.com, I think her name was Mary.
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Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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Gambling API (Score:3, Funny)
This will be a success! (Score:2)
Taking into account they released it, and they probably used it to predict its own success; this will either:
- work, and be a success
- not work, and fail.
The future is here!
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So that's what things would be like if I'd invented the fing-longer. [wikia.com]
Data mining (Score:3, Informative)
When I used to work in the financial services industry we used to call this "data mining". The result is usually at best worthless and at worst dangerous as it is so often misused.
It's worth remembering the saying with data: "if you look hard enough, you can find anything you want to".
Re:Data mining (Score:4, Interesting)
It's worth remembering the saying with data: "if you look hard enough, you can find anything you want to".
A friend of mine works as a quant at one of the big investment banks. He admitted that the models his team creates are useless at predicting the unexpected (as you'd probably expect). Adding in a degree of randomness rarely produces better models, as there are too many possible sources of such unpredictability and the reactions to them depend on many unquantifiable forces. This results in models that are OK at telling traders what they want to know - that they're doing the right thing by all doing the same thing. As soon as something undesirable or unexpected happens, then all hell breaks loose and the traders panic. Having mulled this over for a bit, I suggested his job was pointless, to which he agreed, but pointed out that the pay's great. So much wasted mathematical genius.
Data mining certainly not worthless (Score:3, Informative)
It's absolutely data mining, but it's far from worthless.
Every time you go to Amazon and it recommends something to you, guess what, that's data mining using basically the same techniques that this service will use. And as you might expect, that equates to big $$$ for them (or else they wouldn't be bothering).
Many many fields use the technology, particularly the medical fields for analyzing the relationships between a large number of input variables (which may or may not be correlated) and some desired out
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OK - I'll admit it - I did engage in a little bit of hyperbole.
But you have to admit that "at best worthless" has a better ring to it than "at best, when combined with a qualitative analysis of the model itself, and some testing with out of sample data, can be a useful tool in decision making".
You are right that no investment bank will go anywhere near this.
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One good example is Netflix recommendation engine. I know it's far from perfect (as there is nothing perfect about prediction), but is it useful? Hell yeah. It's the best recommendation engine I have used and have benefited greatly from.
Problem is when it's applied to areas where stacks are higher - like risk analysis by the investment banks.
And that brings me to mention an interesting (old) and r
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It's worth remembering the saying with data: "if you look hard enough, you can find anything you want to".
I was just thinking that this automation will save unscrupulous scientists all the trouble of fudging the models to make the prediction fit their expected results.
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I prefer the more direct: "Numbers are like people. Torture them enough and they'll say whatever you want to hear."
More seriously, though, a solid predictive system usually needs both the qualitative and the quantitative analyses. These tools can inform decision-making, but can't make the decisions for anybody, unless the decisions are in the same discrete closed system. There aren't that many entirely closed systems in the world.
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Available to US developers only (Score:2, Informative)
Google require you to have a current Storage-For-Developers account, which is only available for US parties currently.
Prediction Battle Prediction (Score:2)
I predict that within the next year someone's blog or the Wall Street Journal will feature a cage match between Google's Prediction API, a chimp with a dartboard, and a magic 8-ball.
Eye trick (Score:1)
Great, day trading here I come! (Score:2)
What could possibly go wrong?
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Cue priavcy outcry in 3... 2... 1... (Score:2)
Please post your privacy concerns in the form of an outraged screed. :-)
This Has Already Been Done... (Score:1)
Here's my FREE data prediction API: (Score:2)
predict(data)
{
delete data
prediction = random()
return prediction
}
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Patent it in Germany!
Actually, change the last line to "return whatClientWantsToHear" and you've really got something!
Hmm... I smell a internet-scale prank opportunity (Score:2, Funny)
Amazon has one too. (Score:2)
Now I see why the Amazon Cloud people have been so insistent on people in Hacker Dojo's machine learning class run problems on their "cloud".
This stuff is actually fairly routine by now. It's much the same technology that's behind spam filters.
Psychohistory? (Score:1)
the post made me think of Asimov's old foundation series books.
Acting on prediction (Score:2)
What to Expect when the Price of Gas Falls below 0 (Score:1)
More information is not necessarily better (Score:1)
"Shall I compare thee..." (Score:2)
Classification algorithms as web service (Score:2)
Wow, a RESTfull API (Score:1)
Completely useless (Score:2)
I asked the Google Prediction API what the next Google API would be, and it said "Google Prediction API".
And (Score:1)
Past performance does not guarantee future results.