High Depreciation May Slow Electric Car Acceptance 354
Hugh Pickens writes "The New York Times reports that as cars like the Nissan LEAF and Coda Sedan become available, one question that may give electric car buyers cold feet is bubbling to the surface: How much will these next-gen vehicles be worth a few years down the road? According to a report from the UK's Glass Guide, unless manufacturers properly address customer concerns regarding battery life and performance, the new breed of electric vehicles (EV) soon to be launched will have residual values well below those of rival gasoline and diesel models, with a typical electric vehicle retaining only 10% of its value after five years of ownership, compared to gas and diesel-fueled counterparts retaining 25% of their value in that time period. According to Andy Carroll, managing director at Glass's, the alarming rate of depreciation is a function of customer recognition that the typical EV battery will have a useful life of up to eight years and will cost thousands of dollars to replace. Carroll added that manufacturers could address this problem by leasing the battery to users."
Funny, leasing is what they're doing with the Leaf (Score:3, Informative)
Seems like the article is a bit late...
How much? (Score:5, Insightful)
If batteries wear too fast, the cure should be a better technology, not another business plan.
Unless there's a subsidy somewhere, a short battery life should have as much impact on leasing costs as it has on devaluation.
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Well, you can think about
- returning old batteries for a lower battery replacement cost
- replacement with newer technology batteries or equivalent (fuel cell maybe)
- if electric cars become more popular and it's easier to recharge them battery capacity may go down as well as cost
Comment removed (Score:4, Interesting)
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Prices increased because demand is rising too fast, and there aren't enough companies producing them. They'll come down quickly once more companies pick up that market.
By the way, didn't she tell him the current battery capacity before selling the car?
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Re:How much? (Score:5, Informative)
The Prius's pack started out at 6k and the same doomsday prophets shouted that theyr value would collapse come resale time. Fast forward to today. The battery pack is now just over $2k and the Prius holds value better than all but a few cars.
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Since we're arguing about some dude's speculative model of future battery life and cost, let's speculate about gas costs 8 years from now, shall we?
I'll start the guessing at $6 / gallon.
Re:How much? (Score:5, Interesting)
Did the article mention that people who buy second had gas cars worry about the transmission and whether the previous owner ran the engine in properly, always changed the oil on schedule and always warmed it up before screeching off down the street?
EV batteries bring new problems to the table but they also eliminate a whole bunch of other old-fashioned mechanical problems. If the study wasn't paid for by Big Oil they might have mentioned that.
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and always warmed it up before screeching off down the street?
Modern ICE-based cars with electronic fuel injection don't require much warm up time. Unnecessary idling of a cold engine does not improve performance; instead it wastes gas, releases more hydrocarbons and may even do harm to the catalytic converter if practiced over long term. See Ask Our Experts: Car Engine Warm-Up [motherearthnews.com]
Certified pre-owned vehicle with a CARFAX report (Score:2)
Did the article mention that people who buy second had gas cars worry about the transmission and whether the previous owner ran the engine in properly, always changed the oil on schedule and always warmed it up before screeching off down the street?
That's why people pay upscale used car dealers to do this worrying for them. These dealers offer services such as CARFAX reports and the manufacturer's used vehicle certification program.
psychological difference (Score:3, Insightful)
There is a perceived difference between the old situation where we didn't know if we were getting a car that would soon cost us more money and the new one where we *do* know that the car's battery is about to cost us a fortune. I guess its really not just a perceived difference. With the gas-car its at least possible you aren't getting screwed. If electric cars are going to be viable we need to drive down costs of battery recycling. Scale will help some with that, but cheap lithium from places like Boli
Nah. (Score:3, Informative)
With the Prius (and other hybrids) that's taken care of for you. Even when the battery's capacity graphic says the battery is near empty (and the ICE starts up automatically to recharge it), the battery actually has more than half of its capacity remaining. Most of the capacity of the Prius battery is never used, just for this reason. No matter the habits of the previous owner, the battery is never deeply discharged (or otherwise abused -- the software controlling the state of charge of the battery is in
I get only an advertisement from the NYT link (Score:5, Interesting)
Maybe in the future you should link sites that work correctly when visited by the paranoid. But this is pure fud: "Glass's has developed a proprietary methodology that has enabled it to forecast EV residual values, taking account of specific battery ownership and warranty details, as well as factors such as supply and anticipated patterns of demand. This new methodology is being used by manufacturers to assist in their launch planning and business modelling across Europe" Or in other words, we made up some shit on behalf of big oil that will be used to spread FUD to attempt to prevent EV uptake. It won't work; there are always more pre-orders than can be filled. If EVs fail, it won't be because of lies about their resale value. EVs are in fact likely to have HIGHER resale value because they eliminate so much that can go wrong with the typical auto.
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In the UK motor trade Glass Guide is known as the black book and is the motor traders bible when it comes to pricing, so it might be made up fud but it is made up fud that has a very real effect on the price of used vehicles.
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In the UK motor trade Glass Guide is known as the black book and is the motor traders bible when it comes to pricing, so it might be made up fud but it is made up fud that has a very real effect on the price of used vehicles.
In the US we have a "blue book" made by a publisher called Kelley. From my extensive experience buying used cars [hyperlogos.org] I can tell you that it means basically nothing. Our book is ostensibly created by taking average used car sales prices, but I have come to suspect that it is not statistically valid since nobody I know ever pays full blue book for most cars, and nobody ever gets some cars as low as their blue book "value". Is your book really different?
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My first car lasted me 10 years (1996 saturn) and the only two things I had to do to it was a new fly wheel and a new alternator. The total of which set me back about $400. Now there was standard maintenance (tires, breaks, battery, oil changes, etc..), but I had not transmission problems. Gave it to a family member for their 16th birthday and it's still on the road and other than a new set up spark plugs & wires, they've not done anything to it.
My last car (Chevy Malibu) I got 6 years out of it bef
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Maybe in the future you should link sites that work correctly when visited by the paranoid.
Works fine for me, I'm probably more paranoid than you. I use refcontrol. I have nytimes.com set to have a referrer of "http://google.com/"
Re:I get only an advertisement from the NYT link (Score:4, Insightful)
If EVs fail, it won't be because of lies about their resale value. EVs are in fact likely to have HIGHER resale value because they eliminate so much that can go wrong with the typical auto.
Indeed.
Also, I don't know why anyone hasn't brought up "Prius Resale Value" yet as a case in point. Or the expected versus actual battery life in'em; they've been around over 10 years now.
Re:I get only an advertisement from the NYT link (Score:4, Funny)
You lefties blame everything on conspiracies . . .
Unlike the birthers, who are clearly calm and rational people.
Texas (Score:5, Insightful)
These batteries don't like heat. Simply leaving them in a hot place for a year can rapidly degrade their performance. 8 years sounds like a stretch to me. Is this using once a week and storing at 55 degrees ( Fahrenheit )? What happens to the battery in a black car left in the Texas 100+ degree sun every afternoon?
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A hell of a lot more than just Texas has that kind of heat. Pretty much the entire Gulf coast, lower great plains, and desert southwest area all have 100+ degree temps for at least a third of the year.
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An interesting question! My favorite personal experiences on business trips to Austin, Texas during summer:
I left a CD on the back seat of the car, before going into work. When I went back after work, the CD was fine . . . but the plastic case was warped!
A colleague bought a bottle of Knob Creek bourbon as a gift for the hotel concierge, because he help us a lot during our extended stay. Our employer has a "no alcohol or weapons on the premises" policy, so we left it in the car. Knob Creek is a premiu
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DVD (Score:5, Insightful)
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Batteries are not DVDs. Batteries have been a stumbling block for EVs ever since EVs were invented in the late 1800s. It has not been for want of investment that batteries haven't managed to store more than a 50th the amount of energy that's in gasoline.
My hunch is that as oil supplies wind down we'll end up manufacturing hydrocarbons [lanl.gov] because of their energy density. Moreover, manufacturing hydrocarbons will mitigate the advantage that China has accrued in cornering the rare earth market. [nytimes.com]
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Given the usefulness of rare earths as catalysts... I wouldn't bet on the process that you link to uses none. (Not to mention the myriad of non auto related uses for the rare earths.)
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Well, current batteries are way better than those available 150 years ago. Hell, current batteries are way better than they were just 10 years ago.
Re:DVD (Score:4, Insightful)
That number is bullshit. Sure, the theoretical energy density in gasoline is pretty high, but you can't just drip gasoline onto the wheels and make the vehicle go...
Once you account for all the weight, cost, and repeated conversion losses with gasoline, well, it's no wonder that electric vehicles like the LEAF have about 1/3rd the range, even though the batteries contain "a 50th the amount of energy" (in theory)...
You want some bullshit numbers? Calculate feeding the atoms of the batteries into a working fusion reactor, and tell me how much "energy" you get out of them...
All that matters is range. You can get 100 mi (160 km) on a charge in a Nissan Leaf. Nothing you can say about the benefits of gasoline is going to change that simple fact. Electric vehicles are already competitive with gasoline powered cars. It's just a matter of time.
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Yes I do. I still have a 1st gen DVD player it works great. I have a pile of dead current generation junk Dvd players.
The first ones are always built better. after they figure something out, then they try to build it as cheap as possible.
Battery replacement (Score:2)
Carroll added that manufacturers could address this problem by leasing the battery to users
How about having a user-removable battery (or at least, machine removable, but able to be operated by users). Battery stations replacing — or augmenting — petrol stations would be a nice touch as well, as mentioned in a TED talk I viewed over a year ago.
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Unfortunately that would make ensuring the batteries are a proprietary spare part rather harder.
it's a good thing (Score:2)
most people who will be getting these will do so because they want to make a statement or be trendy.
the 10% or so resale value will be based on market demand and will allow others to make the jump based on economics.
it's a good thing
Wait, that makes no sense (Score:5, Insightful)
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Bingo - dead on. People should realize that finance isn't about changing the functionality of things, it's about changing how they are paid for and distributing cost risk. You can set up a lease (or whatever) to spread out the cost but that is not making how it works or how long it lasts any different. About the time we said goodbye to manufacturing in the US we seemed to begin to forget about how real physical products work and started believing Moore's law applies to everything and that fiddling the nu
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> I mean if you buy something you pay up front and get it cheaper. If you
> lease it you basically rent over time and end up paying more.
But you know in advance how much it is going to cost you. This is a worthwhile tradeoff for many people.
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That is most people. Wat too stupid to look past the monthly payment number.
Re:Wait, that makes no sense (Score:5, Insightful)
The point of leasing isn't just distributing the cost, but it is also about remove the personal ownership of the battery. If you don't own your battery, but just have a contract for the electricity, it is possible to build a refill station that will just swap out the empty battery against a full one, allowing you to refill your EV in a minute, instead of recharge it for multiple hours. If you would own the battery, you simply couldn't do that that easily. It of course also removes pretty much any need to worry about wear and lifetime of the battery, since you always have a fresh one and not drive around with the same for ten years. It also allows to use the car batteries as backup storage for the powergrid, again something that would be a bit more tricky to implement if you would own your personal battery.
The whole EV car thing is basically a solved problem on paper, all its need is putting the plans into actions, which of course is tricky, the car industry had quite a few decades of head start, so it will take time till you have enough refill stations in the wild and the manufacturers have standardized on their battery tech at least enough that you don't need a special battery for every car.
Did the first Prius have this problem? (Score:2)
It was my impression that they sold pretty well, despite the newfangled technology. Sure, it was a hybrid, but still . . . was deprecation a concern with buyers?
Anyway, I don't know, I'm just asking . . . ?
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> Sure, it was a hybrid, but still . . . was deprecation a concern with
> buyers?
Is it a concern for iPod buyers? Until now the EV/hybrid market has consisted of EV fans and yuppies showing off how "green" they are. As EVs move into the mainstream (as they will) many things will change.
10% in 5 years? (Score:5, Insightful)
So in 2-3 years, I should be able to pick up a used Tesla Roadster for about $10K? I can't wait!
You get the feeling that 90% of these statistics are made up?
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You get the feeling that 90% of these statistics are made up?
No, they just depreciate at the same rate.
In 2-3 years time, the predictions will have depreciated to only 10% accuracy.
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Yes, you will get a Tesla Roadster for that sort of money, But you will only be able to get it to the end of the driveway before the battery runs flat. It will cost about whatever the difference is between a Tesla Roadster and a normal car of that class to replace the dead batteries.
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Re:10% in 5 years? (Score:5, Insightful)
This is modded funny, but it should really be insightful I think.
Also according to this, I will be able to buy a 5 year old Nissan Leaf for $3000. By the article's own assertion, it has 3 years of battery life left. That means for the lost cost of $1000/yr plus insurance (had to pay this anyway, I can get basic coverage though on a $3000 car) minus fuel cost savings (I spend $1000/yr now to drive to work with my 30mpg car) I get to drive a 5 year old car. My car is already 5 years old!
This sounds like a hell of a great deal. I can't even buy a 5 year old chevy aveo manual transmission for that much right now. Who cares if the batteries only last 3 years? I'll just sell the car for a few hundred dollars worth of scrap and buy another one.
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Other sources (http://green.autoblog.com/2010/05/27/details-on-nissan-leaf-battery-pack-including-how-recharging-sp/ [autoblog.com]) claim an estimated 70% - 80% capacity left after 10 years.
But let's assume for a moment that the "battery dead after 8 years" is correct. Then it still looks like a good deal. On top of that, advanced battery technology as used in the Leaf is still getting cheaper, as more vendors get into the business and competition drives down prices. So you may get a pretty good deal on replacement batte
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Huh? High depreciation? (Score:5, Interesting)
If anything, electric cars have much less breakable parts, they need less maintenance and have a real chance of lasting decades! Once battery technology improves, you swap out the batteries and the charging electronics - everything else stays the same. There is no more universal "fuel" than electric energy, which is agnostic to how it was produced, or where (i.e. you might have your own wind or solar plant at home, and the "product" will work just fine with the electric car).
Electric cars are, IMHO, truly future-proof.
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That's why this article is so great! Just buy a 5 year old Leaf for $3000, drive it until the batteries die to the salt kills in and then throw it away! You can just buy another one for a mere $3000! Who cares if they last, at that price they're quite disposable.
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Wrong. The electronics in cars are made as cheap as possible. So now you get to replace the charger pack, the BCM, etc.. the ONLY thing being changed from a normal car is the motor is replaced with electric.
you replace a mechanical device with a different mechanical device. they still have friction brakes, wheel hubs, steering racks, transmissions, and differentials.
When we get hovercars, THEN your statement becomes true.
Charging can't work, so what are the other options (Score:5, Insightful)
But, if the makers agreed on a standard tech. Standard sizes. Then you'd not do a charge. You'd do a swap. And the batteries would be conditioned, tested, and recharged with every use. Charge them overnight or other low periods at lower cost. And, when the batteries are old and dying, they are retired at the charging station so that a portion of the charge cost goes to replacement, hiding/spreading the cost.
If the government wants to toss out subsidies, then getting the infrastructure in place for this, getting car makers to agree on quick-change layouts and compatible battery technologies (perhaps even a choice of regular or premium batteries at differing costs for "cheap" lead acid batteries vs whatever premium battery technology is adopted (NiMH, Li, or perhaps some mix of the popular ones so that no single resource is overstressed).
Aside from that, I don't see any way for there to be a 5 minute or less charge of a car with a 400+ mile range, like we do with gasoline. If anyone else has an idea, I'd like to hear it. And the plus of this plan, it eliminates the problem with depreciation and battery replacement people fear. Hide the cost (it really isn't that much per mile anyway, but writing big checks makes people cry) and make the replacements fast and safe (maybe even homogenizing the replacement procedure so much that it can be done in 30 seconds or less with robots), and electric will be much more interesting. People in the US hate it because they can't drive cross country. Not that they will, but for the same reason SUVs are popular. They don't go off road, but they could. So you have to make it appeal not to rational people, but to the actual people, who we recognize aren't always rational.
Re:Charging can't work, so what are the other opti (Score:3, Insightful)
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You can't charge a car fast enough to match gasoline.
But if you use Sony Batteries, you can match the burning ability of gasoline!
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Yes you can IF you use capacitors. Design it right and you can charge a capacitor bank in 30 seconds. it takes 5 minutes to fuel a car. if they designed it right, you could pull into a charging pad, swipe the card, it's charged and drive off. Gas station fillups would be faster than a toll booth.
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This nonsense and hyperbole keeps propping up every darn EV discussion there is.
IEC 62196 allows up to 298kW charging power (which is hardly "a medium electrical plant") , which could charge a 50kWh battery pack in 10 minutes, allowing approximately 300km of driving.
Not only is your claim wrong, there's already proposed standards that could fast-charge electric cars.
In t
Re:Charging can't work, so what are the other opti (Score:3, Interesting)
And the batteries would be conditioned, tested, and recharged with every use. Charge them overnight or other low periods at lower cost.
My Tesla Roadster already gets charged overnight. In my own garage. And takes zero time out of my day to do so. The Roadster itself recalibrates and rebalances the battery and in the morning, every morning I have a full "tank".
Why should I complain that I can't refill my car within 10 minutes like my gas powered car? Instead I do complain when I drive a gas car where I have to take 10 minutes out of my day to stop at a gas station, and likely end up getting gas on my hands. Not to mention sending my cash
not as bad as it sounds (Score:3, Informative)
OK, so the car was more expensive originally; and, after a number of years its value drops to, or just below, the price range of a similarly aged gas powered car... So, it appears to have lost more value.
Early adopters of any technology often find this is the case. They spend more to reap the benefit earlier. The price will normallize after some time and those that follow will reap the benefit of the experience gained in manufacturing and using the initial versions.
Let also look back at cars in the past for a moment: How many of you remember 40 years ago? (or were driving 10 year old cars 25-30 years ago?) The engines weren't as reliable. It wasn't uncommon to have to re-power a car (replace / rebuild the engine) after 6 or 7 years. We've gotten used to having cars with engines that will last 10-15 years. We've been spoiled, really. This technology will catch up, in terms of longevity and utility, eventually.
What's slowing electric car appreciation (Score:2)
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Aren't large amounts of hills something an electric or hybrid vehicle is good at? The regenerative braking systems return energy on the way down the hill, whereas you don't get that with a gas vehicle.
I agree that the main enemy is the government, since their are tons of powerful entrenched players with lobby groups they will use to outright destroy or hinder these kinds of vehicles. It is far from the only technology that suffers this fate, but it might be the best example.
Don't get me wrong, there are som
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Leasing battery won't change cost (Score:2, Interesting)
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That's a $30-$40 monthly lease payment, when you factor in overhead, on top of an already-expensive car.
The problem with your analysis is that it's not an expensive car, at least in the case of the LEAF, which is priced competitively with other hot hatches with far less performance. Well, after subsidy, but it's a new model. In a few years the price will drop and it won't need the subsidy (which is good because it won't get it any more, either.)
Electric cars should be cheaper (Score:2, Insightful)
Battery replacement not the only reason (Score:2)
Depreciation is for lesses and car-swappers (Score:3, Insightful)
I buy a car and run it into the ground. This won't affect me at all. It also won't affect people who buy a car with zero down and high interest and immediately owe more than it's worth, they don't concern themselves with these things. If you have to have the latest and greatest every few years, you're going to have problems.
Electric cars are a long term investment, paying for themselves over time as gas usage is less. It's not for the buy-and-sell crowd. When they are the most common type of car on the road, this will change.
Article is garbage and author is myopic or a shill, or both.
Why don't people keep cars longer? (Score:3, Insightful)
It's the battery, st00p1d (Score:3, Insightful)
You don't "own" the battery any more than you "own" the gas cylinder in your camper-van or holiday home: it just cycles into the supply chain for refilling.
This will only work if all batteries use a standard box and fitment. OK, if you drive some highly specialist boy-racer rig, you use and pay for some highly specialist non-standard battery. Your choice. Once we allow the auto companies to get away with individual proprietary boxes and fitments, the game is over and you, the driver, are screwed for ever.
Imagine if every manufacturer of lightbulbs had their own proprietary fitting. We'd still be using coal-gas to light our houses...
I'm a future LEAF owner... (Score:3, Insightful)
... and I knew this was going to happen. Going into it, I know that in 3-5 years the battery technology will be much better than the battery in my car, making my car virtually worthless.
Compared to a gas car, however, I'll be saving $150 a month ($1800 a year) on gas, so $5400 in 3 years. That's not bad for a car that, in California, will cost me $20k.
The real reason I'm buying it is to help end our dependence on foreign oil. Without people making a few sacrifices to push this technology (and other green technology) forward, we will never break the stranglehold that the Middle Eastern countries have on us. And that needs to end yesterday. I'm just trying to do my part for a better US for my children.
DUH. (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Electric isn't ready... (Score:5, Insightful)
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> Toyota RAV4 EV's sell for more than their original MSRP 10 years ago right
> now on eBay.
They are also a rare novelty item. Not predictive of what will happen when EV's become commonplace.
> Residual value is a matter of supply and demand, this 'analyst' sounds like > he wants to mess with the demand part.
He's just being realistic.
Re:Electric isn't ready... (Score:4, Insightful)
Toyota RAV4 EV's sell for more than their original MSRP 10 years ago right now on eBay.
I don't want to hear about the auction of a curio on eBay. I want to hear about used car sales through local dealers.
Re:Electric isn't ready... (Score:5, Insightful)
It is truly difficult to conquer a technology that has been refined for 200 years. Electric cars have been all-but-abandoned for most of that time (British milk floats a fairly honourable exception). The amount of money and infrastructure behind petrol cars is staggering - consider the investment in roads, garages, cars themselves, mechanic training, vehicle design, the odd political manipulation (we won't mention any bribery to get "trolleys" off the road, now will we?)
So it will be tough. Petrol is a magnificently concentrated form of fuel. That's hard to beat. Can we get anything like that density of energy into anything else at the moment - er, no.
But really, can we continue pumping oil out of the ground (or into the gulf of Mexico, not to mention much of Africa) and burning it, generating CO2. Er, no.
So things have to be done. Changing over to using electricity generated in very efficient plants, using 1/10 the energy and possibly allowing CO2 capture (yes I know it's hard, but not as hard as on the tailpipes of a billion cars).
It's possible it will not be as convenient as petrol cars. It's possible we will have to go without the vroom, vroom of big V8s, It's possible people might even have to ride bicycles a bit. Oh dear. Maybe they'll get thinner and healthier - that'd be a bonus.
But it beats the heck out of everyone dying.
So let's get on with it.
Electric cars don't need to compete with every petrol car in existence - they don't have to be faster than a Ferrari, go further than a .. um, diesel Golf. Covering basic commuting would be fine - and that's 90% of what people do (lacking better public transport). You want to go skiing - rent an appropriate vehicle.
A good start would seem to be delivery vehicles - predictable loads, distances, always park at the same place. Sounds ideal. And indeed this is being done - I reckon they will be a huge success (there are some excellent hybrid diesel vans starting to appear already).
I'd be surprised if a great deal of people would not be pleased at the possibility of a small simple vehicle for commuting - quiet, quite fast, fairly small, easy to park, amazingly cheap to run. And very low polluting. What's not to like?
So let's get on with it. (Hang on, didn't I say that before?)
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Sane cars dont need to do 0-60 in 4.2 seconds. Only really silly or foolish people believe that a car is unsave because I cant accelerate fast... Honda Civic is a slow car, it's safer than any Mustang GT. It's more about uneducated drivers and really bad driving habits and far less about power and speed. Power and Speed only come into factor when you are pulling weight or racing. If an electric tops out at 70mph on the highway, it is perfectly safe you will NEVER need to overtake a car doing 70. I
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semi trucks have brakes. And the drivers tend to be better trained at driving than the car driver.
Note: europe is FULL of slow low power cars. They dont have this problem you imagine.
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>>
>> "If an electric tops out at 70mph on the highway, it is perfectly safe you will NEVER need to overtake a car doing 70."
>
> Agreed. Because you will no longer be living, because the other non-cars on the highway will have crushed you.
>
Nonsense.
The road is already filled with crappy American subcompacts that already fail to meet this acceleration requirement.
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Yes, and taxis should be a good second step for electrics. They never drive too far from the base and run mostly on congested inner city traffic, where running idle becomes an appreciable percentage of fuel consumption for gas or diesel vehicles.
Slow speeds also benefit electric taxis since they can recover energy from regenerative braking. It's only when speed is high enough that wind resistance be
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It is truly difficult to conquer a technology that has been refined for 200 years
It's not like we haven't been refining batteries all that time. And indeed, we've even substantially refined flywheels to the point that they are useful for power storage in racing [wired.com], improving the efficiency of regenerative braking substantially. Electric motors are already ~95% efficient in typical EV/Hybrid scenarios, and over 90% efficient as a generator as well.
Changing over to using electricity generated in very efficient plants, using 1/10 the energy and possibly allowing CO2 capture (yes I know it's hard, but not as hard as on the tailpipes of a billion cars).
The US DoE proved in the 1980s (at Sandia NREL) that they could capture up to 80% of the CO2 emissions of a coal- or oil-fired power plant by bub
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It is truly difficult to conquer a technology that has been refined for 200 years
Humm... not really. ICEs are a really crappy technology. "Refinement" in this case means "make it suck less"
. Electric cars have been all-but-abandoned for most of that time
90% politics 10% actual merit
Petrol is a magnificently concentrated form of fuel. That's hard to beat. Can we get anything like that density of energy into anything else at the moment - er, no.
100% true. But you can keep petrol and have a better power unit / drive train tech and double the efficiency. Also research on fuel cells means an electric car that runs on gas OR ethanol with better efficiency
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Good post
A good start would seem to be delivery vehicles - predictable loads, distances, always park at the same place. Sounds ideal. And indeed this is being done - I reckon they will be a huge success (there are some excellent hybrid diesel vans starting to appear already).
I think hybrids are an excellent place to start, and a good proving ground for lighter and more powerful batteries.
I have a hybrid (Ford Escape) and my previous vehicle was the non hybrid sister vehicle the Mazda Protege (V6). The hybrid uses about half the gas and has the identical feel of amount of power. There's no practical difference in power of my current hybrid and the older V6. But I'm probably saving about $100 in gas per year. That, combined with the green discounts I received upon pu
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we won't mention any bribery to get "trolleys" off the road, now will we?)
This is fantasy.
Trolley lines were in deep financial trouble before World War One.
The trolley was a commuter service.
There were tracks, cars and overheads to maintain but almost none of the twenty four hour a day freight traffic of heavy rail to help cover the cost.
The operating costs of the Ford car was pennies per mile.
Cheaper than the standard 5 cent fare.
It's possible people might even have to ride bicycles a bit. Oh dear. Maybe
Re:Electric isn't ready... Memory (Score:2)
Re:Electric isn't ready... (Score:5, Insightful)
I know it isn't a popular opinion but electric cars just aren't here yet.
You here attempt to use a technique of propaganda: you paint yourself as an oppressed class when you are indeed in the mainstream. It is the popular opinion that EVs "just" aren't here yet.
The batteries hold too little power and age far too quickly
This is a logical fallacy, the unsupported comparison. Far too little power for what? Far too quickly for what? It's also the unsupported conclusion; we don't know how long they last. Finally, "age far too quickly"; are we now time travelers that the batteries will be moving faster through time T than the rest of us? The assertion should be that they "wear out" too quickly; then I could simply say [citation needed]. Which I do say.
there is no economical reason to drive electric.
[citation needed]
While hybrid cars do solve the distance issue and also mitigate the second issue by having far less batteries (which reduces its economic cost).
No, it doesn't. A hybrid costs more to build because it has to carry two powertrains. It has only one transmission, but it's twice as complex to support two motors. The LEAF is projected to be cheaper at launch than the Prius was.
I would love to drive electric but unless I am just burning money - I won't.
That's very evocative, but you have still failed to support any assertion.
Oh and please don't post a link to a research project and suggest electric cars are almost ready since they managed to make an insanely light car with batteries that cost $100,000 wholesale
We discuss the LEAF in the summary. You have reached a whole new level of deliberate disingenuousness.
The issue is that no company is making a road car that is economically justifiable.
Your FUD against EVs is noted. I can see that you are either a shill or a troll. Please include citations in your next comment, or don't bother.
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This citation needed parroting of wikipedia has to fucking stop.
We aren't here writing research papers or even encyclopedias. This is a little niche web forum and most everything we write here is forgotten within 24 hours and will be viewed thereafter only by robots, or in some search engine's cache.
You, for instance, failed to include any citations for any of the assertions you made. I, for instance, rightly recognize, just as I did in the OP, that you are just some guy with some opinions you are stating b
Re:Electric isn't ready... (Score:4, Interesting)
This citation needed parroting of wikipedia has to fucking stop.
[citation needed]
We aren't here writing research papers or even encyclopedias. This is a little niche web forum and most everything we write here is forgotten within 24 hours and will be viewed thereafter only by robots, or in some search engine's cache.
That's a bunch of shit. I refer back to slashdot posts when I can find them on a regular basis. I have many bookmarked for later reference.
You, for instance, failed to include any citations for any of the assertions you made.
Anyone who is familiar with the subject is familar with the relevant citations. They're googled by name so often that they floated to the top of the results if you use a handful of words from the title as they predictably should. For example "a look back renewable" first result is http://www.nrel.gov/docs/legosti/fy98/24190.pdf [nrel.gov], the link I want. There's places you can find it in other formats but that's what we want for most of what I had to say. Much of the rest is common knowledge. But I can provide citations if needed. So far I see no evidence that there is any (but chew on that one for a minute.)
I, for instance, rightly recognize, just as I did in the OP, that you are just some guy with some opinions you are stating based on your personal experience and beliefs and I would be capable of proceeding with the argument on those grounds, were I so inclined, without engaging in tangential games of demanding excessive investments of your time flitting through search results.
I am here to educate and be educated as well as entertain and be entertained. I often use citations, where they are necessary, i.e. when I am having a conversation and not simply engaging in enumeration of faults.
Also, you wrote a point by point rebuttal. Which is classic. HAND.
I'm a fucking classy kind of guy.
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Your FUD against EVs is noted. I can see that you are either a shill or a troll. Please include citations in your next comment, or don't bother.
When selling a radically new car for the mass consumer market the burden is on you to prove that it is practical and affordable.
If popular opinion says that EVs aren't there yet, it's an option that is likely to be shared by my bank or credit union when I hit them for an auto loan.
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The government really should be exempt (almost) all 2 wheel vehicles from sales taxes.
Oh, I can't wait to hear this.
Considering most trips are at most a couple of miles, bicycles are the obvious choice over cars, but even motorcycles get at least 3x as much per gallon as SUVs do, sometimes up to 5x as much(and motorized scooters, which are great for residential zones, get even better mileage).
So what? My car gets 30 mpg on the freeway, and it's a 3475lb land yacht from 1982. I can transport four adults in comfort with better mileage than a pair of motorcycles. Most motorcycles get real-world mileage under 30 mpg because of the irresistible urge to twist wrist. But it's very few motorcycles actually on the road that are rated at more than about 30 mpg. Most motorcycles are operated with a single rider most of the time, just like a car. But motorcycles produce four to
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For once, I think the European solution is not bad: extremely high gas prices (about the same for 1 liter in France as you pay for 1 gallon in the US, except 1 gallon = 4.5 liters). That entices people to buy smaller cars, use them less, use public transport...
The income from those taxes is extremely mis-spent as always, but at least, they encourage the right behaviour.
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To be fair I suspect the GP means something like the 340mpg Supercub:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Super_Cub [wikipedia.org]
Looks like they are improving their emissions as well:
http://oscarapparel.blogspot.com/2010/01/honda-super-cub.html [blogspot.com]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motorcycle [wikipedia.org]
"United States Environmental Protection Agency 2007 certification result reports for all vehicles versus on highway motorcycles (which also includes scooters),[72] the average certified emissions level for 12,327 vehicles tested was 0.734. The a
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Hybrids are crap. Instead of an engine to maintain, or a battery to maintain, you now have both. Thats not only two engines to maintain, its also more weight, and more troubleshooting. Electric cars don't need a transmission, but a hybrid has to have one too, and a drive line, etc. I drive 25 miles each way to work each day, and an occasional jaunt across town. A leaf would be perfect to replace my vehicle. I have a Dodge Dakota, and spend about $300 a month on gas. (really don't need a pickup) My trav
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Hybrids are crap. Instead of an engine to maintain, or a battery to maintain, you now have both.
I disagree. I have a hybrid SUV and its the best purchase I've ever made. I had the V6 equivalent sister vehicle before this one and I'm spending about half on gas and feel no difference in power (hybrid compared to a V6). In a year I guess I'm saving about $1000 in gas.
The gas engine is very simple which translates into easier to maintain. The electric is maintenance free. Hybrids are far better than their gasoline equivalents, especially for in town/city driving.
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I know it isn't a popular opinion but electric cars just aren't here yet.
Even worse than unpopular, it is a wrong opinion. Electric cars are made and sold. That means they are "here" no matter what your opinion is.
The batteries hold too little power and age far too quickly - there is no economical reason to drive electric.
For your driving habits, maybe that is true. There are other people for which electric cars are adequate. As to whether electric cars are economic, you have yet to mention a reason. For example, the battery life is alleged in the article to be eight years. That's more than long enough, time-wise for someone who puts a lot of commuter miles on a vehicle.
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"Despite being browbeating car companies into making them, electric car dream still victim of market forces."
When Carlos Ghosn took control of Nissan, their battery technology program was essentially secret. He could have axed it then, but instead he's chosen to bet Nissan on EVs. Nobody is having to force automakers at large to build EVs — only certain automakers. Like, you know, almost all of them. But nobody is forcing them to make EVs. The Japanese were capable of meeting proposed California emissions standards without them; only US automakers were too incompetent. That, or they were too tied to Big Oil;
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While I've only been driving my overpriced American shit for 14 years, the 194,000 miles I've driven in it hasn't given me any indication of it disintegrating anytime soon, despite frequent trips to the dragstrip, autocross course, and several road courses. Also, it didn't seem to affect the longevi
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It's not about making informed decisions anymore. It's all about being trendy, owning the newest shiny, and looking like I'm part of the crowd.
I just bought a new home for WAY WAY under appraised value because the sellers were downright desperate. I got the loan for $15,000 more than purchase price and still am $20,000 under what I could sell it for when the market pop's back.
What am I doing with the $15K? Replacing the furnace and AC with SEER 18 and >95% efficient as well as adding another 18" of
Two things: (Score:4, Insightful)
1) If the battery really is fully functional per the test stand at the battery swap out place, I don't really care what it looks like. It's not like I'm going to be looking at it all that much.
2) The battery swap-out model is usually discussed in the context where you lease rather than own the battery. So you turn in a brand new one and get one that's two years old (and presumably has less remaining life). Who cares? You're going to be turning it in pretty soon anyway for a replacement, fully charged one.
I really don't see this as a serious objection to the battery swap plan.