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Transportation

In a Self-Driving Future, We May Not Even Want To Own Cars 454

HughPickens.com writes: Jerry Hirsch writes in the LA Times that personal transportation is on the cusp of its greatest transformation since the advent of the internal combustion engine. For a century, cars have been symbols of freedom and status. But according to Hirsch, passengers of the future may well view vehicles as just another form of public transportation, to be purchased by the trip or in a subscription. Buying sexy, fast cars for garages could evolve into buying seat-miles in appliance-like pods, piloted by robots, parked in public stalls. "There will come a time when driving the car is like riding the horse," says futurist Peter Schwartz. "Some people will still like to do it, but most of us won't." People still will want to own vehicles for various needs, says James Lentz, chief executive of Toyota's North American operations. They might live in a rural area and travel long distances daily. They might have a big family to haul around. They might own a business that requires transporting supplies. "You will still have people who have the passion for driving the cars and feeling the road," says Lentz. "There may be times when they want the cars to drive them, but they won't be buying autonomous-only cars."

One vision of the future is already playing out in Grenoble, France, where residents can rent from a fleet of 70 pod-like Toyota i-Road and Coms electric cars for short city trips. "It is a sharing program like what you see in Portland with bicycles," says Lentz. Drivers can check out and return the cars at various charging points. Through a subscription, they pay the equivalent of $3.75 for 30 minutes. Because the vehicles are so small, its easy to build out their parking and charging infrastructure. Skeptics should consider the cynicism that greeted the horseless carriage more than a century ago, says Adam Jonas. He adds that fully autonomous vehicles will be here far sooner than the market thinks (PDF). Then, Jonas says, skeptics asked: "Why would any rational person want to replace the assuredness of that hot horse body trustily pulling your comfortable carriage with an unreliable, oil-spurting heap of gears, belts and chains?"
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In a Self-Driving Future, We May Not Even Want To Own Cars

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  • Since I live in a city with decent mass transit, I don't own a car in the present, nor do I especially want or need to.

    I also note that some cities, such as Copenhagen, have had self-driving subway trains [wikipedia.org] for years.

    • by DamonHD ( 794830 ) <d@hd.org> on Sunday November 23, 2014 @08:55AM (#48443567) Homepage

      Yes, same here. If I actually need a car journey I rent. There's even a Zipcar bay very close to me though I've not had reason to use it yet. I save myself the expense and trouble of owning, insuring and maintaining a car. I also have a much cheaper house from not having to pay for parking space nor even being right next to a road; I may have saved as much as £100k on my house purchase in fact, which on top of not paying for a car all that time seems like a huge bargain.

      Rgds

      Damon

      • by plover ( 150551 ) on Sunday November 23, 2014 @09:11AM (#48443623) Homepage Journal

        In suburban-heavy US metropolitan regions, Zipcars haven't made inroads yet because the sources and destinations of people are not close to each other. Suburbs are all houses (sources of people) but have no shops, factories, or businesses (no destinations). If my neighborhood was to have a successful zipcar garage that served everyone, it would have to contain as many cars as there are nearby residents, and it would still be emptied quite early in the mornings. The urban centers have few residents who would commute away from the city to work, and would not provide a demand for the tens of thousands of cars that would arrive every morning.

        If the cars were self-driving, they'd be able to return to the suburbs to provide many trips per day. More trips per car means fewer cars are needed.

        • Car2Go [car2go.com] uses Smart cars, that can be parked wherever after they are used. Hundreds of them around here, a much smarter and more popular concept than a Zipcar. Among other things, they get more "turns" from their cars because, for example, a given person uses the car to go home, parks the car out front, then the next morning uses it again. If you have to return a Zipcar to its spot all the time, that is much less convenient. There seem to be Car2Go setups in at least Austin, Seattle & Portland.
        • by sycodon ( 149926 )

          Suburbs are about homes, choice, privacy, and self determination. They have plenty of shops, I work in a manufacturing facility, and a great indoor Mall.

          Your idea of the suburbs is inaccurate and probably colored by your life of living in densely packed people containers in urban environments.

          That said, I will never give up my car. I will be driving it until they take away my license, cussing and honking at the morons who no longer know how to drive in their fancy self driving cars. I work in the computer i

          • Why exactly are you so proud of living in a traffic jam?

            • by sycodon ( 149926 )

              10 minutes to work...12 miles, including lights. Twenty minutes if I decide to stop for breakfast.

          • I grew up in the suburbs and in my experience, suburbs combine the worst aspects of rural and urban living.

            Row homes are built right next to each other, usually an eighth of an acre or less in the newer suburbs. Suburban apartments tend to be located on bigger plots that may have pools and gardens. On the whole though, there is the exact same lack of privacy as in the cities. In the city, single-family homes might have the walls built into each other and in the suburbs, they might have a small ally-way b

        • The US, especially certain "cities" like Houston, have been endlessly expanding outward, creating an unsustainable mess and taking away precious natural resources such as parks and agricultural lands. This simply cannot continue.

          Suburbs in major urban areas like New York, LA, and San Francisco have already been experiencing population density increases, to the point where the vast majority of the big ones are higher in population density than many actual cities (like Houston and Atlanta).

          The solution is to

      • Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • by ganjadude ( 952775 ) on Sunday November 23, 2014 @08:56AM (#48443571) Homepage
      what they do not take into account though is that some people genuinely enjoy driving. driving is not just a mode of transportation for some its a passion.

      I dont see a future where no one ever wants to drive, I would not like such a future
      • by itzly ( 3699663 )
        I figure you could still drive on dedicated tracks, much like people can still ride horses.
        • where i live sometimes you will see horses on the roads as well as cars.
        • by khallow ( 566160 )
          Roads are already dedicated tracks. If your self-driving cars can't handle law abiding, human drivers on the same road, then they aren't worth the bother in the first place.
          • Compared to a computer, a human is utterly incompetent to operate any heavy machinery. The reaction times and accuracy just aren't there, and never will be. That makes you comparatively dangerous, no matter how 'law abiding' you might be. And the damn law can distract you from actually driving the car. You're too busy looking in the mirror for the cops, talking on the phone while shaving [go.com], when you rear end the guy stopped at the light.

          • by jythie ( 914043 )
            Long term the question will be how disruptive human drivers are in such situations. All it takes is one or two cars behaving oddly to reduce a high speed flow of traffic to one of those 'why is everyone going slow?' jams. That could turn public opinion against allowing drivers on the road real fast.
          • Roads are already dedicated tracks. If your self-driving cars can't handle law abiding, human drivers on the same road, then they aren't worth the bother in the first place.

            SDCs can drive much closer together. Most estimates are that lane capacity will go up by a factor of five. If we are still going to have human drivers, then we will need more road capacity, more safety features, heavier and more expensive cars to withstand accidents, etc. I doubt many people will accept those higher taxes and costs to subsidize your hobby. If you want to drive, go to a privately owned track.

        • I figure you could still drive on dedicated tracks, much like people can still ride horses.

          Which doesn't help much if you need to tow things like boats, jetskis, trailers, etc.

          The people who think that self-driving cars and not owning cars are a good idea tend to be people who live in dense urban areas and know little to nothing about the rest of the world. What they fail to understand are all of the circumstances where a generic rental and/or self-driving just will not cut it. Like it or not, any self-driving highway is going to have to make accommodations for human guided vehicles.

          In addition

      • by rednip ( 186217 ) on Sunday November 23, 2014 @09:25AM (#48443705) Journal

        True, but there are those who love horses as well, yet now most people rarely even see a live horse, let alone own one.

        I think two things will 'drive' the adaption to driverless cars, parking and driving. People already spend a good deal of time trying to find a parking spot. With a driverless care you'd have your own 'valet parking' everywhere and the storage location for the car isn't limited to the local area, a car could easily be sent back home (yours or its). At first parking will get cheaper and more abundant, but eventually, 'Downtown parking' will not only become almost unneeded, but it will also largely disappear and I think even suburban parking will become rare. Also, thanks to digital reflexes and networking driverless cars will be able to tailgate not only to save gas, but to keep the traffic flowing at higher volumes. I suspect that 'manual drivers' will find themselves 'locked out' of the fast lane by cars on autodrive. Sure frustrated drivers will force their way into the fast lane and jam up traffic (as they do now), but the cars will record the reckless driving, likely by a few 'angles', eventually, it'll become a citation to do it.

        • Sure frustrated drivers will force their way into the fast lane and jam up traffic (as they do now), but the cars will record the reckless driving, likely by a few 'angles', eventually, it'll become a citation to do it.

          It's already against the law to do this (in most places in the U.S., anyway), and I see the police ignore it all the time even when it's happening right in front of them. If they spent half the time on enforcing left-lane and improper turn laws as they do on speeding, they'd have full co
          • Want to be careful about criminalizing an action. Governments are all too likely to seize upon that as a revenue opportunity. If the rules are themselves bad or counterproductive, breaking them may be to everyone's benefit, and the only way to get the government to see that a particular change is necessary.
            • by SvnLyrBrto ( 62138 ) on Sunday November 23, 2014 @02:14PM (#48444985)

              The problem is, that the dumb rules are enforced and the good rules are routinely ignored.

              Illegal turns, failure to yield the right-of-way, improper merging, passing on the right, and puttering along in the passing lane (which provokes people to pass on the right), and various other forms of careless driving are all more dangerous than speeding. Single occupancy cars in the HOV lane or cars in general in the bus/rail lanes muck up the flow of traffic a lot more than speeding does. And then there are those pricks who drive into an intersection when there isn't room for them on the other side and stop in the crosswalk, or even in a crossing traffic lane; turning a traffic slowdown into a traffic jam.

              But much of the above is routinely ignored and unpunished, while the vast bulk of traffic enforcement is based on catching speeders; often on the freeways, where the potential for them to harm themselves or others or to disrupt the flow of traffic is at the minimum. It's ludicrous.

        • by jythie ( 914043 )

          True, but there are those who love horses as well, yet now most people rarely even see a live horse, let alone own one.

          Another point relevant to this piece, a lot people who ride horses for enjoyment do not actually own them. Owners generally do not have the time to exercise their horses every day, so part of stabling is other people ride them on days when the owner can not.

          • Also, you don't have to have a license or insurance to ride a horse. When and if the day comes that most people own automated cars, no one's going to bother learning to drive anymore... which kinda takes the wind out of the whole "you could rent a car when you need one" concept.

      • Actually, I don't see the problem. It is still legal to ride horses and bicycles in the streets. I imagine that in the future, you might add human-operated cars to that list. There might be more restrictions, like human-operated cars must stick to the right-hand lanes. The enforcement standards might also be much higher. Automated cars could auto-report any self-driven car that violates someone's right of way or commits another infraction, ensuring that only the best, most competent drivers are allowe

      • Actually they do take that into account, if you RTFS: "You will still have people who have the passion for driving the cars and feeling the road," says Lentz. "There may be times when they want the cars to drive them, but they won't be buying autonomous-only cars."

    • I did the same in NYC when I lived there. ZipCar all over the place and excellent public transit.

      I didn't save any money, though. My larger suburban apartment and two cars combined were cheaper than just my Manhattan apartment.

      • That's Manhattan Real Estate prices for ya. In many areas of the country getting rid of the car, and moving to an urban apartment, would be a lot cheaper then living in the 'burbs, if public transit wasn't shitty.

        For example when Detroit went bankrupt lots of righties claimed that "of course that happened their tax rates are ridiculous, nobody could afford to live there" but if you read page 11 of the bankruptcy report, you'll note that car insurance costs were two to three times taxes in Detroit and all th

    • Since I live in a city with decent mass transit, I don't own a car in the present, nor do I especially want or need to.

      Until your employer happens to relocate you to a city whose buses don't run at all on Saturday evenings, Sundays, or six major holidays.

    • I don't own a car in the present, nor do I especially want or need to.

      I've always found the smugness in this statement interesting.

      Vehicles and the "free" (as in freedom to move around) national highway transportation system are one of the greatest achievements in the history of mankind. The places I am able to take myself everyday represent a massive freedom for me, and I don't want to live my entire life within a city radius unless I rent someone else's property. A wonderfully comfortable vehicle, with music streaming from a satellite, and traveling all over my country

      • I've always found the smugness in this statement interesting.

        There's nothing smug about it. You do however exhibit something I've noticed about "car people". You seem unable to grasp the concept that a preson has no particular desire to own a motor vehicle.

        The thing is none of the things you say make the slightest bit of sense. I too own no car and I too have no strong desire to own one. When I live in places where a car is useful, I own one, when I don't I don't. But I have no desire to own a car when I h

  • Thank You Jerry (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Mr D from 63 ( 3395377 ) on Sunday November 23, 2014 @08:34AM (#48443499)
    Your wild guess about the future is as good as any.
    • Your wild guess about the future is as good as any.

      So... you don't have any any rebuttal to his reasoning?

      The interesting part of such prognostications isn't the conclusions, it's the rationale.

  • Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • by itzly ( 3699663 )
      The trucks and vans can be self driving too.
      • by vux984 ( 928602 )

        The trucks and vans can be self driving too.

        He didn't say they wouldn't be self driving, he said the people in them would want to own them.

        If self driving cars become a thing, I'll still own a car. I don't live downtown, parking is not a problem, and there isn't ever going to be a zip car depot within 5 minutes of me.

        So I'll own my car. I'll probably drive it some because i like driving, but sure if I go downtown, I might have it drop me off someplace convenience and then send it off to find a place to park

        • by itzly ( 3699663 )

          He didn't say they wouldn't be self driving, he said the people in them would want to own them.

          Actually, he commented both on the owning as well as the driving part. And, as a matter of fact, most business vehicles are owned by the company the driver works for, and not the driver itself.

      • The trucks and vans can be self driving too.

        Self-driving trucks will entail a *far* more comprehensive level of automation than cars. Just getting a tractor-trailer to make a successful turn at a tight, busy intersection will be an interesting problem to solve.
  • by Charliemopps ( 1157495 ) on Sunday November 23, 2014 @08:58AM (#48443581)

    The real story here is that this guy just figured this out now.
    Why own a vehicle you don't control anyway?
    I think this was clear to most people the second self driving cars became a "thing"

    Also assume the car will be filled with TV's blaring ads at you while you're on your way. You'll be able to pay $5 for your seat to heat up and vibrate. If it's a long trip there will be a $20 per passenger in-cabin movie from 1982. Pickup and delivery schedules will vary by over an hour unless you pay a "premium trip fee" etc...

    • by Twinbee ( 767046 )
      We don't control robot vacuum cleaners either, yet it makes more sense to buy one than to rent one because although it seems tempting at the time to only pay small amounts weekly/monthly, you'll lose money in the long run.
  • What people want is affordable, on-demand, point to point, weather-resistant transportation for themselves and their cargo. Until the transporter gets invented, the automobile is the closest thing we have.
    • by itzly ( 3699663 )
      Yes, but we don't have to own or drive the automobile, which was the point.
      • Granted. However, the problem with public cars is, that because of the societal dictate of a 9-5 workday, everybody needs the car at the same time. Further, because of the layout of the typical city (businesses in the core, residences on the outskirts) the cars would be spending half of their travel time empty. In the morning, they would go to the outskirts, pick up people, and drop them off downtown. Then they would drive empty back out to the outskirts to pick up the next batch of travellers. The rev
        • On a large scale what you are describing is an arcology. We have the technology to build them and they would give a better quality of life at a tiny fraction of the cost that a city does while giving much better services. Mostly humans are pretty stupid and they refuse to change until forced. Humans have to be dragged into the future kicking and screaming the whole way.

        • It would sure cut a lot of commuting if all a person needed to do to get to work was to take the elevator.

          Probably would cut out a lot of time off too - "Dave, I know it's your day off, but can you come upstairs real quick to look at this server issue?"
  • Why would the autos be "parked in public stalls?"

    I own a garage. I live near lots of other people. If I didn't own a car, why wouldn't I lease this space to the owner of a self-driving car? After all, it's near lots of people, and I could use the dough.

    It's true, the number of self-driving cars will certainly be fewer than the number of cars now, but you'll still need capacity for commuting, for Thanksgiving family trips, etc.

    Why would a company spend money to build auto storage in public spaces when they c

  • Flawed, 'cos... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Balthisar ( 649688 ) on Sunday November 23, 2014 @09:23AM (#48443689) Homepage

    (I work for an auto manufacturer, but my opinions are my own. And my lifestyle is my own, and doesn't reflect 100% of slashdot).

    1. Peak demand. In car-culture areas there's a peak demand. *Someone* has to own the rush hour fleet. But no business is going to want to invest in a fleet that has 21 hours of downtime during non-peak loads.
    2. Consumers want reliability and 100% availability. Consider Uber and Lyft that promise this, except during surge pricing periods. People hate this. It's economically correct in the case of Uber and Lyft, and an obvious idea, but surge pricing during rush hour isn't going to work. People will still own their own cars.
    3. Personalization and customization. Hey, I like my cars stock, but I still have my stuff in the center console, my presets on the stereo (yes, 760 am in the morning, I'm a dying breed), and my iPhone paired to Sync. A different car every day isn't going to cut it. And think about comfort, especially on a commute. If it's hit or miss as far as comfort, people are willing to pay for 100% access to a Fusion versus an Elantra (or choose an Elantra versus a smaller B-sized car).
    4. Toy haulers. You're not going to call Uber or Lyft to tow your trailer to a state park or tow your boat to a launch. And this isn't 99%'er speaking, this is blue collar worker in my part of the country.

    Will annual sales go down? Yeah, probably. Maybe undoubtably (how's that for hedging?). But families in most areas are still going to continue to own their own cars. Maybe not two or three cars -- supplemented by autonomous vehicles or ride sharing -- but the private market most definitely won't dry up, even amongst the 99%.

    I'm limiting my projections here to about 50 years. Beyond that, who knows. Most of us will be dead then, so it's good enough.

    • by itzly ( 3699663 )
      1. Make rush hour trips more expensive. If the price is high enough, someone will want to own the fleet. 2. For a price you can get 99,99%. Your own car can't guarantee 100% either. 3. Put your phone in the console, and use NFC to exchange all information. 4. Why not ?
      • What my car can do that a taxi can't is be right there outside my door within the minute it takes to get to it 100% of the time at no additional cost. It also is guaranteed to to have anyone else's detritus. It can also serve as a storage space or a place to sleep in a pinch.
      • by alen ( 225700 )

        not even rush hour. what happens in the summer time when everyone wants to go to the beach? NYC it's like $30 a person per trip to go to a nice beach outside NYC. $120 per day for a family of 4. and you have to drag all your crap around with you on the trains and busses and be packed like sardines with your kids. zipcars and others will probably be all rented up and would cost you $150 a day or so for this.

        so the choice is buy a car for weekend driving and have freedom or pay the same amount of money for a

    • Yes, but rush hour might be reduced if the pod vehicles could hold a dozen people with optimised routes to pick up people that live within a few hundred metres of you and are going to the same location. Rush hour might be reduced to a trickle and the pods might get recycled a lot quicker than you think. Nobody knows how this could play out.

      • by itzly ( 3699663 )
        With enough self-driving cars, slow rush hour traffic can be avoided altogether, and replaced by a time slot based system where you wait for your time slot, and then take the trip itself at full cruising speed.
    • by DamonHD ( 794830 )

      Don't buy in to 'peak' anything if you can avoid it; nicer for you and nicer for (and cheaper for) infrastructure.

      I pick my work hours (when I have a day job) so that I avoid peaks since I loathe them even more than getting up early which I then do instead.

      And now I'm full time on my start-up I need not generally join the peaks either (nor travel nearly so much nor so regularly).

      I disagree similarly with the rest of your assertions as being necessary at all. You assume them to be so, but they are clearly n

  • This could definitely be revolutionary, and governments on the cusp of spending large amounts of money on conventional transport like rail, should be cautious, because they could end up buying a white elephant. I know a lot of people think this is alarmist, but anybody who underestimates the significance of this revolution, should not be making decisions in government.

  • It is not that culture will shift, not that it would not, but that the laws will. The average citizen will simply not be allowed to operate a car that is not driven, overseen, and controlled by AI, with admin access granted only to the police and the manufacturer.
  • If you don't know how to drive, what will you do after the Motor Law? Just hop the turbine freight and that's it?
  • I am a gear head myself. I really enjoy driving cars that are made to be fun to drive. However I can tell you that as time has marched on I have found routine driving to be increasingly less enjoyable. I despise my commute and do everything I can to take my own driving out of the equation so I can do things that are less aggravating and wasteful of my time and money.

    I can definitely see merit to the idea of not owning a car. The only reason why I currently own one now is because I live too far off the bus line to walk there easily in the morning. If I lived in the city instead I would almost certainly not own a car at all.

    And don't get me started on the Ponzi scheme that we are all required to contribute to in order to hold a valid driver license.
  • Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • We have a "self driving" car technology, it's called a "taxi", and millions of people use them and avoid buying a car already.
    Most of us avoid these due to a thing I like to call "being rich enough not to have to put up with that shit".

    I own a car because I don't want to share.
    That's not going to change if the car can drive itself.

  • Within cities, car sharing works great. Outside of cities and for trips that are several hours long, a "car" becomes a kind of living room, something people like to customize and feel comfortable in for long periods of time. Car sharing doesn't work so well in that environment. And I see much more potential for self-driving cars on long distance trips than for city driving.

  • by Jim Sadler ( 3430529 ) on Sunday November 23, 2014 @04:05PM (#48445445)
    The cost of medical care alone will start to severely limit our choices. For example if a robotic driver has 15% less accidents than a human driver the differential in medical loss to tax payers could be enough to cause a must have robotic ability at all times to be required in order to have a vehicle on the road. Guns and motorcycles will face similar legal challenges. For example one severely wounded motorcycle rider can have a lifetime medical care cost of over twenty million dollars and leave the rider with no way to earn any money at all on top of that. A bullet can cause similar nightmare medical situations. Since the tax payer always bears the brunt of the costs of such incidents our law makers may feel they have the right to either control or completley banish long established industries as well as restraining the rights of the people. This is one reason Obama care is a bad compromise. Only single payer medical with government as the payer can control medical costs and it is vital that those costs be controlled.

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