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Avoiding BlackBerry's Fate: How Apple Could End Up In a Similar Position (marco.org) 214

It's almost unbelievable today that BlackBerry ruled the smartphone market once. The Canadian company's handset, however, started to lose relevance when Apple launched the iPhone in 2007. At the time, BlackBerry said that nobody would purchase an iPhone, as there's a battery trade-off. Wittingly or not, Apple could end up in a similar position to BlackBerry, argues Marco Arment. Arment -- who is best known for his Apple commentary, Overcast and Instapaper apps, and co-founding Tumblr -- says that Apple's strong stand on privacy is keeping it from being the frontrunner in the advanced AI, a category which has seen large investments from Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon in the recent years. He adds that privacy cannot be an excuse, as Apple could utilize public data like the web, mapping databases, and business directories. He writes: Today, Amazon, Facebook, and Google are placing large bets on advanced AI, ubiquitous assistants, and voice interfaces, hoping that these will become the next thing that our devices are for. If they're right -- and that's a big "if" -- I'm worried for Apple. Today, Apple's being led properly day-to-day and doing very well overall. But if the landscape shifts to prioritise those big-data AI services, Apple will find itself in a similar position as BlackBerry did almost a decade ago: what they're able to do, despite being very good at it, won't be enough anymore, and they won't be able to catch up. Where Apple suffers is big-data services and AI, such as search, relevance, classification, and complex natural-language queries. Apple can do rudimentary versions of all of those, but their competitors -- again, especially Google -- are far ahead of them, and the gap is only widening. And Apple is showing worryingly few signs of meaningful improvement or investment in these areas. Apple's apparent inaction shows that they're content with their services' quality, management, performance, advancement, and talent acquisition and retention. One company that is missing from Mr. Arment's column is Microsoft. The Cortana-maker has also placed large bets on AI. According to job postings on its portal, it appears, for instance, that Microsoft is also working on Google Home-like service.
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Avoiding BlackBerry's Fate: How Apple Could End Up In a Similar Position

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  • by Anonymous Coward on Monday May 23, 2016 @08:36AM (#52164073)

    If AI becomes the next big thing, they will just buy their way into the game with acquisitions. Or they'll buy their way into a whole new market.

    Blackberry never had anywhere close to the money Apple does, it's like comparing apples to prime rib.

    • by Opportunist ( 166417 ) on Monday May 23, 2016 @08:47AM (#52164135)

      Odd. I thought the article is comparing Apples to Blackberries.

    • They will certainly try. It is not likely that any company they buy will have anything like Google's machine learning capabilities.
      Then again, Google used to be a couple of guys with an algorithm better than anyone else and just look what happened. So..who know!

      • Google's machine learning capabilities come from their (very recent) purchase of Deep Mind, which really didn't have very much of anywhere near the value that Google paid (good implementations of a few old and well-known algorithms and a few really good demos).
    • by LWATCDR ( 28044 )

      Today you are right but not long ago many people would tell you that Apple didn't have a chance in the cellphone space compared to Motorola, Nokia, and RIM.
      They were late to the game and didn't even support apps. Heck you could not even swap batteries.
      IBM does not make PCs any longer.
      DEC, Control Data, Data General are all gone.
      In the microcomputer market Atari, Ti, Tandy, Commodore, Kaypro, Zenith/Heathkit, and Osborne are all gone.
      Yes Apple could mess up and go the way of DEC and Commodore or they may not

      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        by Ratphace ( 667701 )
        I am actually surprised how far behind so many curves Apple is and yet people still love it. Take wireless charging, from the last I read, Apple is looking at it for the iPhone 7. I mean, seriously? My Galaxy S4 wirelessly charges. Not to mention the iOS is clunky and not really very nice. I'll give 1 example, I have an iPhone 5s and you can't arrange any given desktop how you want it. Every app icon has to listed from the top and packed up tight from top to bottom. I don't want it that way, I'd like
        • by LWATCDR ( 28044 )

          For a lot of people that is not a downside. The iPhone is simple. Wireless charging? Nice to have but it is not a must have.
          As I said can Apple fail?
          Yes.
          Will Apple fail? I do not see it anytime soon.
          Want to take a guess about the long term smartphone market?
          Microsoft's one OS for phones and PC could mean that Phones become a lot of people's PCs. Plug in the USB 3.1 connector to a monitor and use the monitor, keyboard, and mouse to run desktop apps using your phone.
          If Intel ever makes a good x86 mobile SOC y

        • by Penguinisto ( 415985 ) on Monday May 23, 2016 @10:39AM (#52164911) Journal

          Here's the thing - Apple is kind of picky in many aspects.

          They don't chase the new-shiny just because it is new and shiny, but only when/if it makes sense for the products (both present and planned).

          Also, you mention wireless charging. Yeah, it's been around for awhile - if you actually like either lashing something on to make it bulky, or sacrificing performance/capacity/battery-life to it. After all, you gotta make room for it, which means something has to go to make that room.

          In Apple's case, it's probably a demand to never compromise the bonuses your product has (e.g. insane battery life, etc) just to make room for a new-shiny. That's why it hadn't shown up in the iPhone yet (Mind, I say this as a guy who owns an Android phone.)

          • by mccrew ( 62494 )

            In Apple's case, it's probably a demand to never compromise the bonuses your product has (e.g. insane battery life, etc) just to make room for a new-shiny. That's why it hadn't shown up in the iPhone yet (Mind, I say this as a guy who owns an Android phone.)

            I pretty much agree with you, with the exception of battery life. IPhone is known for insanely bad batter life. In the day, it was Blackberry which could run for days on a single charge -- and they could never fathom why people were flocking to the iPhone, even with its well-known bandwidth and battery performance problems.

            It's a separate topic, but what Blackberry never got was how Apple turned a functional item to a fashion/fetish item, and the tech specs became largely irrelevant.

      • IBM sold its PC business while it was still worthing something. The PC business is dying everywhere and IBM already started in the 90s the transformation to make the PC business a separated entity that can be sold when needed. That's what they did. The profit margin on the PC business is not large enough for IBM. In fact, they are going a bit away from the hardware business. This transformation was already initiated early 90s. It is something different we are talking about with the consumer market for smart
    • If AI becomes the next big thing, they will just buy their way into the game with acquisitions. Or they'll buy their way into a whole new market.

      Not if Alphabet (Google) or Microsoft buy it first. Microsoft and Google have comparable amounts of cash to Apple. Facebook may become a player as well and they're pretty cash rich. Amazon's biggest problem will be that it doesn't have as big a war chest as the others but it's still not a competitor to overlook.

      Blackberry never had anywhere close to the money Apple does, it's like comparing apples to prime rib.

      True though back ten years ago when Blackberry dropped the ball, Apple didn't have anywhere close to the amount of cash it does today either.

    • totally agree. Although having that cash horde is incredibly wasteful (cash depreciates with time) they could EASILY buy their way into it without any fuss. When you have that kind of cash on hand you can bleed until you get it right or are back on your feet. Just look at IBM in the early 90's.
    • Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • Apple cannot buy Google or Facebook, and they have a poor track record of poaching staff from both companies. They have money but they don't exactly lavish it on their staff. So if they can't hire the AI expertise and they can't buy it....

  • Bad conclusion (Score:4, Insightful)

    by tom229 ( 1640685 ) on Monday May 23, 2016 @08:39AM (#52164087)
    Why would Apple ever care about your privacy more than their profits? They probably just don't think it's going to be that big of a thing. I tend to agree. All this stuff kinda reminds me of VR 30 years ago. It's neat, but kinda gimmicky. It's all supposed to be in the 5-10 year future? Try 30-50, and even then, as the article points out, it's a big maybe.
    • I don't recall that Apple has ever pretended to care about people's privacy. They do when such actions happen to align with maximizing profits.

      Don't get me wrong, I like Apple product. Always have. But, I have never understood peoples insistence to apologies and excuse them for everything. As if their own self worth is somehow tied up in Apple being thought of as a benevolent overlord. (not implying you think that) Apple fucks their customers all the time just like every other company.
      They are just a maker

    • G+ (Score:4, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday May 23, 2016 @09:12AM (#52164259)

      G+ being a classic example of the privacy problem Google faces. Technically it was excellent, yet who wants to give Google yet more private information!

      So Google's new messaging app will listen in on the conversation and suggest restaurants and nearby bars if you talk about meeting up etc. it will look at photos you send each other and interdict with recipes and themes connected to the content of those pictures....

      WHO THE FOOK WANTS THIS? And to do this, they can't support end to end encryption because they'd be cutting themselves out of the conversation! GOOD! They were never invited INTO the conversation in the first place! Can you imagine talking about medical problems with a friend, knowing that Google is listening in? And by Google I mean people, because Google's engineer can access your data [ Quack for "David Barksdale" ].

      Blackberry's big selling point was privacy, but as they bent over backwards to get their phone into third world markets like India and Pakistan, so it became clear they'd backdoored the encryption. Then there was the phones, an excellent keyboard messaging phone becomes an awful android copy with a backdoor.

      • RIM business started dying before they made concessions on the privacy. In face, they made concessions on privacy exactly because they were not selling anymore enough devices and cannot afford to cost to lose a whole country's market like India or Pakistan. Don't confuse the cause and the effect.
    • Re:Bad conclusion (Score:5, Insightful)

      by macs4all ( 973270 ) on Monday May 23, 2016 @09:42AM (#52164491)

      Why would Apple ever care about your privacy more than their profits?

      Two reasons:

      1. They really DO have a longstanding corporate culture of NOT selling-out their customer base. That is because they have always fancied themselves as a Hardware company (which they are), who's profits are based on sales of Hardware, not Customer-Data.

      2. Because they have (rightly) sensed that they are getting a reputation for being one of the few (or maybe only) large tech companies that does value their Customers' privacy, and as a result, there is no disconnect between that stance and increased profits. In fact, the more the national (and international) mood swings against the Panopticon, the more attractive Apple looks to a lot of people.

      • by Rob Y. ( 110975 )

        But it's the nature of a 'personal assistant' to tie it to a search engine. In Apple's case, these days, it's Bing, Do you think that's any more private than competing services - just because the searches originate from Apple?

        • But it's the nature of a 'personal assistant' to tie it to a search engine. In Apple's case, these days, it's Bing, Do you think that's any more private than competing services - just because the searches originate from Apple?

          I don't know if it's any more private; but I do know that any "personal identifying information" does not leave Apple; so, in that sense, maybe so.

          But I don't remember this discussion specifically being about Siri, or "Digital Assistants". However, I do know that you can always ask Siri to "Search for [Search Term] on [Search Engine]", and it will, regardless of the Default. I wonder if the same works with "Hey, Google"...?

          So, with that in mind, you actually can make searches "more private" with Apple's

        • by rtb61 ( 674572 )

          If Apple want to continue selling privacy as a premium product, then yes, their searches will be more private and they will strive to prove it in their marketing. The real question is whether or not you can sell privacy as a premium product, whether or not people will pay for privacy. Let's look around the home, hmm, curtains, people pay thousands for them, nah nothing to do with privacy, they just moronically like the look and opening and closing them. Restriction on nudity, nah, nothing to do with privac

    • Apple is at hardware and services company first. Selling your data is not their primary business goal.

      Google's business model depends on violating your privacy. They subsidize the development of hardware and software services to gain more access to more data.

  • by spywhere ( 824072 ) on Monday May 23, 2016 @08:41AM (#52164097)
    We were fresh off a seven-night cruise in New Orleans, with a lot of dirty clothes to wash, and our hotel did not have laundry facilities for the guests.
    So, I said to my Nexus 6p, "OK, Google: I need a f***ing laundromat."

    I never imagined there was so much laundromat pr0n in the world...
    • Pro-Tip....
      Search for ANYTHING + Rule 34. There is porn of it.

      • Pro-Tip....
        Search for ANYTHING + Rule 34. There is porn of it.

        OK Google: Find me pablo_max, Rule 34. ...OK Google: Find me that laundromat where Spywhere went. I need some bleach for my eyes.

  • by pablo_max ( 626328 ) on Monday May 23, 2016 @08:53AM (#52164153)

    It happens to nearly all companies.
    Once on top of the world, the next moment hanging on to survive.
    Who have we got?
    Motorola
    RIM
    Palm
    braodcom
    yahoo
    AOL
    Nokia
    Sony. Remember when everyone wanted SONY gear?
    Hell, it has even happened to Apple before.
    People are fickle. If some hot new thing comes along with a better way of doing things, then people will generally follow the trend. If the old guard is too slow, then they get left in the dust, living off their cash reserves until eventually, the die. Apple is no exception. Innovate or die.

    • Yahoo & AOL?
    • It happens to nearly all companies.
      Once on top of the world, the next moment hanging on to survive.
      Who have we got?
      Motorola
      RIM
      Palm
      braodcom
      yahoo
      AOL
      Nokia
      Sony. Remember when everyone wanted SONY gear?
      Hell, it has even happened to Apple before.
      People are fickle. If some hot new thing comes along with a better way of doing things, then people will generally follow the trend. If the old guard is too slow, then they get left in the dust, living off their cash reserves until eventually, the die. Apple is no exception. Innovate or die.

      At this point, nothing will dislodge Apple - and that's simply because of the ginormous pile of cash they have.
      Let's see Microsoft for example, who has a similarly ginormous pile of cash: they bought Nokia, played with it a bit, broke it, then they threw it away. And they didn't even notice the hit on their cash mountain.

      Apple could do the same many, many times over, and eventually strike gold.

    • You left out Microsoft (what can I say; I'm the forward-thinking type). ;)
  • by xxxJonBoyxxx ( 565205 ) on Monday May 23, 2016 @09:08AM (#52164235)
    The title implies that Apple "rules" smartphones today...but Google's share is 80% of the market. Logically, the reaction to a future "oh nos Apple is dead" should be "meh - another second-tier player will move in and secure that niche"
    • Comment removed (Score:5, Informative)

      by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Monday May 23, 2016 @09:29AM (#52164387)
      Comment removed based on user account deletion
      • Apple's outlandish profit margins were largely possible because the US carrier subsidisation model, which is now ending. A huge market wasn't really exposed to the true cost of the hardware. Android's market share over iOS has been massive in most markets around the world where phones were not heavily subsidised, and now the US is coming into line with international norms it seems like Apple will either bleed marketshare or have to lower its margins significantly.

  • Sure seems plausible, but decades in this business have taught me it's all about timing. And I would assert that having watched Apple over the decades its biggest advantage other than design is ... timing. At least timing getting into any particular game. When to get out of a game? That's even tougher.

    Tablet computing was always perfectly plausible. Microsoft got into the game early back in 2000 with it's Microsoft Tablet PC. Almost nobody remembers it now because it was way too early. By the time the

    • Tablet computing was always perfectly plausible.

      I guess it further illustrates your point that tablet sales and use are way down. They seem to be going away. I am not too sad to be honest.
      Nowadays, laptops are so thin and light there is no reason to use a crippled product when you could have a real computer with all its extra use cases.

      • by hey! ( 33014 )

        Well may be one of those areas where the needs of the producers don't immediately align with the needs of the consumer.

        Early converged devices were pretty terrible -- I know because I developed for various pre-iPhone mobile platforms. The problem is that as manufacturers got better at making PDAs, the price kept dropping. This presented device-makers with a bind: either try to compete in a commodity market with razor thin margins, or add complications to their platform to differentiate it.

        Now as someone

  • by Lumpy ( 12016 ) on Monday May 23, 2016 @09:17AM (#52164293) Homepage

    Android is so fragented it is frustrating for everyone. Carriers and Manufactureres are allowed to screw it up and Google does not care.

    Pure android is awesome, the Crap that HTC and Samsung does to it makes it suck, then the carriers add on their crap to make it suck more.

    Google needs to say, "NO" you ship a clean android and your add on crap is in the application world that CAN BE UNINSTALLED by the end user. They also need to demand that at least all updates to the OS be pushed to phones within 30 days of release, none of this bullshit like AT&T pulls with security updates showing 6-12 months later.

    Please google Force these companies to stop making android a steaming turd.

    • Google needs to say, "NO" you ship a clean android and your add on crap is in the application world that CAN BE UNINSTALLED by the end user. They also need to demand that at least all updates to the OS be pushed to phones within 30 days of release, none of this bullshit like AT&T pulls with security updates showing 6-12 months later.

      I'm pretty obviously no Google fanboi; but I've been saying this for several years now.

      But the FOSSies keep saying that "Android is Open Sores! Google CAN'T Control it!"

      Bullshit. You can put ANYTHING into an OEM Contract you want, and believe me, those handset makers and Carriers will sign-off on it; because the alternative is that they actually have to MAINTAIN a Fork of Android THEMSELVES, and not even Slamdung wants THAT headache!

      So, the only conclusion to be drawn is that Android is the steaming p

    • by Tablizer ( 95088 )

      Android is so fragented it is frustrating for everyone. Carriers and Manufactureres are allowed to screw it up and Google does not care

      Having owned both an iPhone and Android, I have to agree. iPhone "experience" is just overall cleaner and has better-coordinated common tools/apps.

      If Apple is cautious in order to reduce breaches, it may just well benefit them. A couple of high-profile Android breach(es) will send customers back to Apple.

      Perhaps Windows versus Mac is a better comparison than Blackberry vers

    • Actually, the opposite is happening: Chinese (and others, like Amazon) companies are just forking Open-Source Android and slapping their own apps, app-stores etc. on top of it.

      Support? Updates? Who cares, right?
      You vastly overestimate the amount of influence Google has on what people do with Android. They have some influence on the source-code, of course - but once it's published, everybody can do with it whatever he wishes. And that's exactly what is happening now.

      Also, as Google seems to come up with a ne

    • by Dr. Evil ( 3501 )

      One of the biggest innovations of the iPhone was to strong-arm the carriers to allow an app store outside their control. This was so bad in Canada that it took nearly a year before any carrier would agree to sell them. http://www.cnet.com/news/iphone-coming-to-canada/#! [cnet.com]

      Before the iPhone, the *customer* was the carrier. The *features* were being able to lock people out of their phones and make them pay to download their photos, upload ringtones, tether, etc, etc. The more you could lock out and frustr

    • They also need to demand that at least all updates to the OS be pushed to phones within 30 days of release

      I'd argue two things:

      1.) The update debacle is just as much Google's fault as the carriers, because the updates aren't properly modular. A whole lot of people are losing their s!!t right now because their Windows 7 or Windows 8 machines became Windows 10 machines this past weekend. The general Slashdot consensus is that Microsoft is wrong for updating computers without meaningful consent, and rightly so...but like clockwork, Samsung/HTC/Motorola/AT&T/Verizon/T-Mobile are terrible for *not* rolling out O

  • Much depends on how data is is used and shared. As for Apple losing out that assumes they take Blackberry's stance of "they are not a threat since we rule so why should we do things differently?" R&D is like sex. Just because you don't talk about in public desn't mean you aren't doing in private. Just because Apple isn't rolling out more advanced features doesn't mean they aren't spending on R&D privately. As long as they can react when they see the market and their tech is ready they'll be fine.
  • Blackberry's or formerly RIM's QNX operating system is going to rule the world, very quietly, underneath everyone.

  • Au Contraire (Score:5, Insightful)

    by xtal ( 49134 ) on Monday May 23, 2016 @09:37AM (#52164457)

    One could also argue a major decline in BlackBerry's brand started in ~2008 with the Indian government encryption key debacle.

    Privacy matters. I will continue to buy iPhones even for no other reason than the principled stand that Tim Cook took against the FBI.

    I suspect I am not alone.

  • Apple has $305 billion in cash assets. There is no way to blow $300 billion.I mean they could fuck up more than few times and take big risks until they hit a payoff.
    They could send their whole executive team on a roundtrip to Mars and still have more money left over than Microsoft.

  • They're fine. It's less a chat app and more a social network with how users approach it. When I see folks migrating off that I might believe.
  • ...says that Apple's strong stand on privacy is keeping it from being the frontrunner in the advanced AI, a category which has seen large investments from Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon in the recent years. He adds that privacy cannot be an excuse, as Apple could utilize public data like the web, mapping databases, and business directories...

    So Apples competitors are investing in AI, and Apple is going to lose because it too is spending in AI?

  • IMHO the reason Blackberry failed, was that they tried to monetize the whole Blackberry ecosystem, from their Server Platform to each device, while at the same time, not providing enough improvements to their products that they quickly became 2nd tier phone manufacturer when Apple iPhone was released. This lead to people ditching the more expensive, less functional Blackberrys for iPhone and when Android finally took off, nailed the coffin shut.

    FWIW, I owned a Blackberry, and my biggest complaint was that t

    • To answer the question: Apple needs to NOT forget who breads its butter. You don't need to nickle and dime your customers to death to survive. Looking at the lifespan of "smart phones", from the time of Palm Pilots and feature phones, I saw what a "Smart Phone" could have been. I carried both, and wish they were one device long before the Treo and iPhone came out. There are synergies that are clear, and when they are apparent, work on making them functional. Right now, there are synergies that can be made,

  • by Solandri ( 704621 ) on Monday May 23, 2016 @11:02AM (#52165067)
    I know a lot of you think the iPhone's introduction was like the second coming of Christ, but RIM/Blackberry increased in market share from 2007 to 2009 [wikimedia.org] immediately after the iPhone was released. RIM's decline actually correlates closer with Android's rise in popularity.

    The big losers in the early smartphone days were Nokia (Symbian was dated and badly needed an overhaul, which never happened) and Microsoft (who started off with a good lead from Windows Mobile on PDAs, but squandered it).

    As for privacy, Apple has shown they're more than happy to violate their users' privacy when it's in their self-interest. When Apple ditched Google Maps, they didn't have their own database of SSID locations, so they couldn't locate you if you had the GPS turned off. The first year they paid for a wifi database from Skyhook. The next year, they used their own database. How did they mysteriously generate this database without sending around Apple street view cars to record the SSID and location of every hotspot on Earth like Google did? By secretly logging iPhone owners' locations and nearby SSIDs [f-secure.com], and having the phones send the info back to them. Essentially, Apple turned all iPhone owners into unpaid contractors who scoured the Earth recording the locations of every SSID, and used a chunk of their data plan to transmit this data back to themselves.
    • by Dr. Evil ( 3501 )

      "Essentially, Apple turned all iPhone owners into unpaid contractors who scoured the Earth recording the locations of every SSID, and used a chunk of their data plan to transmit this data back to themselves."

      If you think that's bad, you should read on how Google Traffic works...

    • That "location data is better with wifi on" is them telling you. It's not advertised, but neither is it secret either. it's anonymized. And in response to consumer complaints, they scrub the DB regularly. And it's sent back when you sync your phone, meaning it's on your home Internet, not on your dataplan.

      Apple takes your Apple Maps mapping request and splits it in half. So you don't get associated with a path. They also severely kneecapped iAds by not selling out your data. They do take data seriousl

  • I've been saying this ever since Google Apps and watching a Google IO a few years back and seriously thinking of doing a career change once again, because if it weren't for 20 year old historically grown LAMP stack technology that needs hands on fiddling to this very day I'd long be out of a job.

    Among all Megacorps it's Google whos strategy is the most future safe.

    There's a good reason Apple started offering subscription plans for iPhones a few months back. Google and its serious focus on the web is an ongo

  • Another fool who doesn't know what he's talking about.

    Apple is a hardware company, a media company. It's not a software company or an Internet company. It has little incentive to invest in AI research. It can happily sit this one out and simply buy whatever startup comes up with something promising.

Children begin by loving their parents. After a time they judge them. Rarely, if ever, do they forgive them. - Oscar Wilde

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