Microsoft Research Developing An AI To Put Coders Out of a Job (mspoweruser.com) 338
jmcbain writes: Are you a software programmer who voted in a recent Slashdot poll that a robot/AI would never take your job? Unfortunately, you're wrong. Microsoft, in collaboration with the University of Cambridge, is developing such an AI. This software "can turn your descriptions into working code in seconds," reports MSPoweruser. "Called DeepCoder, the software can take requirements by the developer, search through a massive database of code snippets and deliver working code in seconds, a significant advance in the state of the art in program synthesis." New Scientist describes program synthesis as "creating new programs by piecing together lines of code taken from existing software -- just like a programmer might. Given a list of inputs and outputs for each code fragment, DeepCoder learned which pieces of code were needed to achieve the desired result overall." The original research paper can be read here.
But the requirements (Score:5, Insightful)
Don't worry (Score:5, Funny)
Changing requirements aren't a problem. All you need is to define a language where they can be specified precisely, and hire someone who can translate your real world requirements into that language. Once you've got those, you can still do away with programmers because the new magic code generation tools will do everything else for you.
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It's even easier than that. Just specify that requirements must be delivered in the form of functioning code.
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Ah, cunning! So it's like my idea, but now you don't even have to hire someone to do the translation, because your boss/customer already did that bit. Nice. Definitely no programmers involved anywhere now!
Re:Don't worry (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Don't worry (Score:5, Informative)
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Maybe we could define a COmmon Business-Oriented Language to do this in.
Re:Don't worry (Score:5, Insightful)
Changing requirements aren't a problem. All you need is to define a language where they can be specified precisely, and hire someone who can translate your real world requirements into that language. Once you've got those, you can still do away with programmers because the new magic code generation tools will do everything else for you.
Sounds like you are describing a compiler.
Just as programming tools today are much better than those used in the 80s and 90s, the tools used by programmers a decade or two from now will make developers far more productive. IMHO we have already reached a point where the more valuable work is in requirements elicitation and architectural design as opposed to writing code. I imagine in 20 years writing code will be like being a CAD operator today in both the level of training required and pay scale.
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Sounds like you are describing a compiler.
#thatsthejoke
In reality, this can't handle division, or modulus (Score:4, Interesting)
Indeed this "new" tech (copy pasting junk from Stackoverflow) can't handle simple tasks like division, or modulus.
One programming task I handled, we already had a function which basically computed some averages, using division and a few other simple operations. To simplify, lets's just say the core function was something like quotient(x,y), which would return X divided by Y. That was useful. The customer very much wanted a slightly different version. They wanted quotient(x). That was the requirement for the software, compute quotient(x). I'd like to see any AI produce code for that. I, a programmer, did eventually get the customer what they needed.
My current assignment I'm working on today is similar. It's basically "write an SQL query which returns the list of software products we have in our database, and for each list all of the operating system versiona they can run on". Sounds simple, right. The relevant data is a table of about a million rows in this form:
SoftwareID - ProgramName - Vendor
1 - Firefox - Mozilla Foundation
2 - bash - FSF
3 - jQuery - jQuery Foundation
I'd love to see some IA that writes a query to get, from the above table, information about which OS versions each software package can run on. That's my task as a programmer, the requirements set by the product manager. I'll take care of the need, get the job done. I may also strangle my product manager, but that's a different topic.
Re:But the requirements (Score:4, Interesting)
Sadly I'm not kidding about that but looking at the summary it sounds analogous to when sound samples were used to replace session musicians with the exception that you describe the music you want and the computer goes away and splices a load of sound samples together into a piece of music which matches your description. Somehow I don't think John Williams needs to worry about his job
Re:But the requirements (Score:5, Insightful)
Most of the projects I work on the requirements NEVER get completed. It's usually someone popping by the office saying "I need an app to do X" to which I ask a few questions and the answer is usually "I don't know- just write the app".
I either hit the target- or redo parts of the app after deployment because the business user doesn't even know what they want until they have something and it is either "it" or "not it".
I know I'm being selfish, but... (Score:5, Insightful)
Can we just hold progress back another 40 years or so? I'd like to be cold in my grave before the world changes so much I can no longer find my place in it.
Also, the massive social upheaval during the transition period between our current system and whatever replaces it is likely to be extremely unpleasant for the average person.
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Can we just hold progress back another 40 years or so?
Sure. Just fight MGI/UBI/COLA and mission accomplished.
In an efficient world, the most talented people would produce the best stuff, and we would use it. In this world, everyone produces a lot of shit and only a few people get to use the best stuff because it is buried under feces.
You don't have to worry about finding your place in the world if your place in the world isn't tied to your economic output. You can simply exist. There is more than enough to go around if we cut out the waste simply for the purpo
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From each according to their ability, to each according to their need.
It's a beautiful thought, but unfortunately it is completely incompatible with human nature, which is evolution's response to reality. Resources are scarce and everyone's competing for them to ensure their genes survive. Part of that creates greed, envy, and hoarding... consumer culture.
I'm sitting here conversing with people around the world, in a climate-controlled environment, with what's probably a pretty impressive understanding of
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Since I'm NOT worried about whether the Gods are going to punish me, not worried about whether I'll make a kill on the next hunt, or if the flint spear I have will be good enough for the job... I'd say our system's working out fairly well. There's always room for improvement, though.
If you know where your next paycheck is coming from, if your basic needs are met and you can sleep without economic anxiety at night, You are the eight percent.
Damned right there's room for improvement.
Re:I know I'm being selfish, but... (Score:4, Interesting)
The world of code is more like this:
Software is inherently different to hardware, so you make a valid point. Though in a more perfect world, in which interoperability was forced by hook or by crook (so, if you don't use standards, your code repo gets raided until people can figure out how to interoperate with you) the software world itself would probably be more streamlined anyway as those who have built their existence on lock-in become eliminated.
Arguably though, for software all that has to be done is protect open source and Free Software, because eventually it will destroy all other software. It has a tendency to surpass commercial software given enough time and attention, and it has a tendency to attract that attention in proportion to the need — as Linux has proven.
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>the newest wonder-tech is generally always presumed to be 20 years away.
I think one of the most disappointing parts of growing up was discovering that. And also that the most popular 'wonder-tech' was almost always bullshit from the very start. When I was a kid, it was flying cars, and unlocking psychic powers. Now it's flying cars and warp drives.
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We've had flying cars for decades. The real dream is practical flying cars for the average person... which I don't see ever happening since they're fundamentally less practical than the non-flying variety.
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More likely HR will expect 10 years of Deep Coder experience the moment businesses start using it.
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Deepcode bots are eligible.
Re:I know I'm being selfish, but... (Score:5, Insightful)
I don't understand posts like this. Why do you want to waste 40+ hours per week on a job that delivers little in the way of satisfaction or pleasure? Even if you're a well paid programmer, you're probably working on something that doesn't interest you, and therefore isn't particularly fun or rewarding. Wouldn't you rather have more free time to work on something that is of interest to you and that you believe would benefit other people? I worked as a programmer for a few years when I came out of university, but I concluded that my free time is far more valuable to me than a decent wage. I now work in a low paid part-time job, and while I have no money and no retirement plan, at least I can spend most of my time on projects that interest me.
I don't understand posts like this. You assume everyone has the same life priorities you do, and get satisfaction or pleasure from the same things.
My job isn't the perfect job I would create for myself if money was not a concern, but it is quite close. I get to solve complicated problems for companies and get to offload most of the grunt work to more junior staff members. While I may prefer to work on projects with more social impact than making financial transactions more efficient, I prefer providing well for my family more.
My children will attend arguably the best public school district in our state (paid for by my egregious property taxes), they won't need loans for even Ivy League colleges if they so choose, will have the option to take unpaid internships starting in high school instead of needing a part time job to pay for a car, and spend their childhood surrounded by other affluent families who will become their initial professional network once they become adults.
I'm not saying my priorities are better than yours, they are just different. So while I understand why you don't choose a similar life as I have, I still don't understand why you think your way is best for everyone.
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And the vast majority of the workforce. The fact that the poster asks for 40 years alone indicates a millennial. I don't plan on working for another 40 years if i can avoid it.
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Who is this "Al" (Score:5, Funny)
Who is this "Al" and why does he keep trying to put everyone out of work? It seems like the best thing for the economy^w Human race would be to find Al and order a drone strike on him.
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And before all you ACs leap to eviscerate me for my inscrutable post, consider your glyphs.
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AI also controls the drones.
For people who can't program (Score:2, Insightful)
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+1
You can't just glue blobs of code together and expect a decent application to come out of it, unless you are coding an extremely simple app that only automates a few things.
Think about the UI, for example. If there were a magic formula to make a good UI, then computers would be automating it already, and every app would look great. Not so much.
AI Snippets... (Score:5, Insightful)
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In this respect, it's not really any different from stuff genetic algorithms have been doing for decades. If you have a set of executable tests that can tell if the algorithm is working correctly, then you can evolve something that will pass the tests. Of course, you have absolutely no idea how it will behave on inputs not covered by your tests.
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Yes... more crappy code (Score:3, Insightful)
Given the long history of crappy code from Microsoft, it don't look so nice... more crappy unoptimized code...
Real coders? (Score:5, Insightful)
piecing together lines of code taken from existing software -- just like a programmer might.
Ehm, right. Because all coders do all day is cut & paste code snippets from StackOverflow. And those snippets are placed there by the tooth fairy?
The idea isn't exactly new, and there have been some attempts in the past to build code generators which string together finely-grained mini routines from specifications into a working bit of software. But those have proved to be problematic, especially when it comes to maintenance, change requests, and multi-threading. Keep in mind that today's software engineering isn't straightforward input -> process -> output anymore; even the simplest apps have to deal with asynchronous stuff in UI, database and networking code, and the resulting problems aren't solved simply by piecing together the right code snippets. Not saying that there will never be an "AI" that is able to code, and research like this is pretty interesting, but in this form this isn't job threatening in the least.
Re:Real coders? (Score:5, Informative)
People don't know what they want. Part of a developer's job is figuring out what the client really needs from a vague and typically clueless spec. Since that involves looking at how things are already being done manually or with other software, talking to people, making suggestions, building prototypes etc. it is hard to see how an AI could have much success at it.
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Yeah, this is why I said the AI is not replacing my job. My job isn't writing code most of the day, most of my job is taking the specification I was provided, talking to the people who provided it, and turning it into something that wont collapse under its own weight
Coding requirements (Score:5, Insightful)
Isn't writing out requirements in a way a computer can understand the essence of any programming language that has ever existed? So how is this any different? To truly get rid of programmers, the machine would need to look at the world, figure out what the problems were, figure out the requirements to solve it on it's own, and solve it. Then, yes, would programmers be able to look at kitten pictures all day.
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>Isn't writing out requirements in a way a computer can understand the essence of any programming language that has ever existed? So how is this any different?
It would seem this is another layer of abstraction that will make programming easier.
I would guess that there will still be a language to learn so you can give instructions to the computer and get optimal results. If they do it correctly, it's possible there will be a whole lot of details a human will no longer have to track... except when you have
Re: Coding requirements (Score:2)
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Forget coding, nobody actually needs to complete this project to the pointer where it can code, it only needs to get to the point where it can write research proposals.
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Using AI to convert specs to code has been an active research area for a long time. But to essentially echo your point, specs that are specific enough to allow this are about the same complexity and require about the same amount of detail as writing the program.
And in my limited industry experience, we worked more as hacks than as spec implementers anyway. Typically we wrote what someone asked for, then waited for them to come back and say that wasn't really what they wanted. Iterate until you move to th
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I see what you did there.
dealing with the human element (Score:5, Funny)
automated software production? this. times a million.
specifications (Score:2, Insightful)
Unless your a programmer, I don't think you can make specifications complete and detailed enough for this to work. I've heard many customers say "always do this" and come back later and say well except when that happens.
Maintenance (Score:3)
I can't wait to try and maintain code generated by pasting together random code snippets. And people thought old COBOL mainframe code was expensive to keep going, well hold on to your hats.
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Just have the AI do a full blown rewrite.
That is great. (Score:5, Funny)
It will be also the time when Linux will finally take over desktop
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I'm looking forward when Microsoft uses this AI to code Windows OS.
AI gives them back BSD code.
This has been threatened for over 40 years now (Score:2)
Probably longer. But I remember such articles in 1976.
Getting hard to take it seriously.
Because it worked so well in 1981 (Score:5, Insightful)
The Last One (software) [wikipedia.org]
As someone else said, it sounds like it mimics the type of programmer who spends all his time gluging together copypasta code snippets from StackOverflow without understanding them. So it will clearly put the hack (in the context of "hack writer") contractors from India with fake degrees out of a job first. The kind of coding I do doesn't have snippets to put together.
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The Last One (software) [wikipedia.org]
As someone else said, it sounds like it mimics the type of programmer who spends all his time gluging together copypasta code snippets from StackOverflow without understanding them
Perfect problem for a genetic algorithm.
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I want to see the results first (Score:4, Interesting)
before I believe it will work.
I worked once on a very large project that tried to do something similar for the Dutch tax service: put the (ever changing) tax regulations in some form of specification language, and compile that to C# code. I was a contractor for some time on that project. After a 160 milion EUR budget overflow and some questions about it in the parliament the project was significantly reduced in its ambitions.
Anyone remember assembler? (Score:2)
This is different from the status quo how? (Score:4, Insightful)
The people who call themselves "coders" already do little more than paste together half-assed open source projects they find on github and snippets copied from Stack Overflow.
Replacing them with an AI would increase the quality of software by orders of magnitude, and increase the productivity of everyone who can't be replaced.
"Is developing" (Score:2)
"Is developing", not "has developed". I understand that Dr Frankenstein was developing a perfect human, made of snippets gathered from graveyards.
Oh, is it 4GL time again? (Score:5, Informative)
Actually, it will work exactly like it did in the 90s. Which is to say not at all, and to store up a load of 4GL take-out projects for the early 2000s...
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You laugh but this is what ASIC/FPGA developers are going through right now. I'm old enough to remember the 4GL attempts from the 90's. A couple of the tool vendors (looking at you especially, Xilinx) are pushing the living hell out of tools that let you drag and drop blocks together and voila. You are correct that it works as well as it did 30 years ago.
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Oh, really? (Score:3)
Bad code is already perversive, it is much more common than good code. So, you write an AI that takes various snippets of, more likely than not, bad code and combines them. And this AI is still written by coders who, more likely than not, are not the best coders themselves, so the sum will probably be even worse than the parts... If Microsoft has great engineers working on fancy stuff like that, perhaps they should instead throw a couple to the Skype team for example (I don't know what they are doing, but they are slowly degrading what was a useful service).
In any case, good coders already reuse libraries etc and end up doing the job of several coders that are inventing the wheel. And it is much easier for the non-technical person to communicate with a coder to describe the requirements, because an AI system would still need a specification language to describe things - it would just be a higher level programming language in a way.
I remember I was told that when SQL first came out (SEQUEL) there was the idea that business users would be able to communicate with databases so db programmers wouldn't be needed... yeah, right.
And they said it could never be done! (Score:5, Insightful)
"Called DeepCoder, the software can take requirements by the developer, search through a massive database of code snippets and deliver working code in seconds..."
This I have got to see. By the way, I notice that the first thing mentioned is the proposed name. "DeepCoder" - well, with a name like that, how could anything go wrong? After finding that name, I expect the rest of the project was all downhill. So to speak. Erm...
1. "...take requirements by the developer..." Expressed in what form? As random remarks over a cup of coffee - in which case the usual proportion of incorrect, incompatible and misconceived requirements can be expected, along with the standard quota of perhaps 90% of the requirements not being mentioned at all (because no one has thought of them). Or perhaps in some rigorously defined logical format, in which case we might simply call them "pseudocode" or "Model Driven Design" or perhaps "formal methods".
2. "...search through a massive database of code snippets and deliver working code in seconds..." Ah, the long awaited "Frankenstein IDE"! Now you too can have a loving companion or friends stitched together from offcuts of raw liver and other offal. If only it weren't so easy to pass so airily over real difficulties to conjure up images of working code delivered in seconds. I wonder if Microsoft has thought of providing some kind of validation utility to make sure that the "working code" actually implements the requirements?
Sure (Score:2)
TCS has been doing it for ages. (Score:2)
Then it is up to the customer to test it, test it again, and make the code meet the specs through a complex e
27 heads of lettuce (Score:2)
This is the first numerical problem I ever did.
It demonstrates the power of computers:
Enter lots of data on calorie & nutritive content of foods.
Instruct the thing to maximize a function describing nutritive content, with a minimum level of each component, for fixed caloric content.
The results are that one should eat each day:
1/2 chicken
1 egg
1 glass of skim milk
27 heads of lettuce.
Won't happen. Sorry, there is no AI ever ... (Score:2)
... that can turn the harebrained buzzword/bullshit-laden confused and convoluted descriptions ("specs") of my marketing crew into a working product.
No freakin' way. The AI would probably have a meltdown.
My job will remain for a loooong time. If the rest of the population were able to formulate what they actually want, I'd be out of a job 10 years ago, with CASE tools taking my job. But that didn't happen. However, I might be the one discussion the new software with the AI. Looking forward to that. But then
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... that can turn the harebrained buzzword/bullshit-laden confused and convoluted descriptions ("specs") of my marketing crew into a working product.
I just deliver a "Hello, World!" program, and when they say "WTF?" I say "Sure, it's got some bugs in it, but I got it out ahead of schedule!"
Licencing (Score:3)
High level abstraction (Score:2)
So you mean high level abstraction is the hard part and once a problem has been stated at sufficiently low level the lower levels can be standardized and needn't be recoded from scratch everytime ?
I'm shocked!
Remember those old lists of gag opcodes? (Score:2)
This would be the "Do what I mean" instruction that developers have always dreamed of.
You're assuming specs are well written (Score:2)
We have all these different development methodolog
Poverty-Rich Leisure Class (Score:2)
Something similar for artists (Score:2)
A few years ago there was a tool that did something similar for art: you drew a really rough line-drawing that just gave a sense of scale and position to each object. Then you labeled each object like "cheetah" or "motorcycle" and had one special label for the background, like "desert." Then it ran an image search: it would look for an image tagged with the same label, with roughly the same proportions as the outline. It auto-photoshopped it in, and viola! Instant art! One of the demo pictures was a ch
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something like "content-aware fill" would work here? ;-)
Yeah, you just spec it out with a lot of {...}, and let the AI fill it in.
Developers! Developers! Developers! (Score:2)
The mother of all inner platforms (Score:2)
This is going to be an inner-platform, not for a platform, but...wait for it...for a programmer.
Skillset needed (Score:2)
So here's a question: What skillset would be needed to use this approach effectively?
Great but it won't put coders out of a job (Score:5, Insightful)
What many people don't understand is that describing things to a computer, no matter how, is what coding is. The programming language is just a facade. Managing highly complex tasks accurately enough for computers to understand is where the real skills lie.
Just look at one example from the paper :
A new shop near you is selling n paintings. You have k < n friends and you would like to buy each of your friends a painting from the shop. Return the minimal amount of money you will need to spend.
And the output (modified to fit slashdot):
k=int; b=[int]; c=SORT b; d=TAKE k c; e=SUM d
What it proves is that the AI is great at answering test questions. However, in a production environment, no one is going to write and maintain a description like this.
And it is just a tiny function. To match the complexity of a real-life program, you have to imagine the same kind of description but spanning hundreds of pages...
Compilers didn't put coders out of a job, these AIs may be the next step but they still won't displace coders. Although it may require some skill adjustments, it won't fundamentally change the job.
Once upon a time... (Score:4, Insightful)
... there was this idea that we let people define their requirements in a formal sort of English, and let the computer write programs from that. That was called COBOL, in 1959, and the computing world hasn't been the same since.
Software patents (Score:2)
search through a massive database of code snippets
Does it also search through a database of software patents to make sure that it doesn't infringe?
A better use of the AI in today's world would be to review all existing software patents, then generate as many non-patented concepts as possible and file for software patents on them.
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Does it also search through a database of software patents to make sure that it doesn't infringe?
Right now it's using this database [xkcd.com], presumably they have a licensing contract with Randall Monroe that gives them permission to use the code.
You still need completely specified algorithms (Score:2)
Maybe if you work for NASA, are building life and safety critical industrial software, or writing firmware for a pacemaker you get requirements that are this specific. In the other 99% of use cases a developer will be writing to, forget about it. The cost of specifying a problem to that level of detail is astronomical and also multiplies the cost of any change
I will consider it a success when (Score:2)
AI Programmer...from Microsoft...really? ;-) (Score:2)
The requirements will be as long as the code (Score:2)
Will it also debug the code... (Score:2)
Re:Oblig. XKCD (Score:5, Interesting)
https://xkcd.com/1185/ [xkcd.com]
OT but I believe that XKCD has reached the level where it is the embodiment of the old joke where the prisoners (or whoever) sit around telling jokes by reciting the joke's index number. Sometimes you don't even have to look at the XKCD cartoon, you just look at the number in the link and go "yep, that's applicable". (Although in this case I had to look).
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Don't forget we need to build a 2000-mile wall on the Mexican border, and stop all Muslims from entering the country.
Taking those tough but common sense steps will protect your job from automation.
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Don't forget we need to build a 2000-mile wall on the Mexican border, and stop all Muslims from entering the country.
And the nukes being smuggled in bales of pot.
http://www.thekindland.com/policy/today-in-bomb-weed-arizona-congressman-says-terrorists-will-ship-2654 [thekindland.com]
Re:Kill the H1b visa people (Score:4, Insightful)
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Like work is a biological imperative.
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Who would have bet on self-driving cars the next 20 years in 2010? And yet, we seem to be on the brink of it.
Who would bet on self-driving cars that work safely and reliably in the next 20 years right now? It's always easy to wheel out some dandy-looking prototype that works fairly well 99% of the time. But that remaining 1% is what hurts you. Given tens of millions of people hurtling about in "self-driving" cars, how many deaths, injuries and other harm does that tiny-sounding 1% represent? http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-... [ieee.org]
How about facial recognition systems for airports and other public places that don't produc
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Who would bet on self-driving cars that work safely and reliably in the next 20 years right now? It's always easy to wheel out some dandy-looking prototype that works fairly well 99% of the time. But that remaining 1% is what hurts you.
The sad part is that we have had the technology for self-driving vehicles since the 1800s. It is called rail.
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We already have code that automates itself based on short descriptions. We call them high level languages. The resulting code is interpreted by our more concise instructions.
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*this*
I've tries to use their service with a timer code - all iterations - and it just doesn't work
If their "AI" is drawing on their "code Base" people will be asking for refunds.
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At that point it will be BallmerBot doing the chanting. It has a 2-gallon sweat reservoir, a highly reflective chrome headpiece, and can throw full-sized executive chairs over 50ft :-P