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Transportation Businesses United Kingdom

New Diesel and Petrol Vehicles To Be Banned From 2040 In UK (bbc.com) 417

New submitter puenktli writes: The UK is joining the list of the countries which are making a commitment towards diesel and petrol free vehicles. Other countries might be more progressive with such a ban (e.g. the Netherlands: by 2025), but at least it's a step in the right direction. However, if new bans are put forward at such a high rate as now, in 2040, the UK might be the only western country where petrol-fuelled cars are still on the road. Tesla at least will be happy about this ban, especially now with their Model 3. But these bans will inspire other car makers as well to invest more in EV. Maybe not such a bad idea after all: oil will run out one day, but the sun will always shine.
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New Diesel and Petrol Vehicles To Be Banned From 2040 In UK

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  • Short-sighted view (Score:4, Informative)

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 26, 2017 @12:44PM (#54883421)

    oil will run out one day, but the sun will always shine

    Maybe another 4 billion years but hardly always.

    • Well by the time the sun runs out many billion years from now, the Earth will not be habitable to humans or most life so I don't see that being a problem. By the time the sun become a red giant in about 5 billion years, the oceans will have boiled away by then.
      • Hey, it's all cool with me all these other countries going EV....that just leaves more oil and gas for the US!!!

        I'd like to keep big V-8's going throughout my lifetime, after that....meh, I don't care.

        ;)

        • That also means increased dependence on foreign oil. The US does not have enough oil for long term. That means the US will be dependent on other countries for oil.
          • hat also means increased dependence on foreign oil. The US does not have enough oil for long term. That means the US will be dependent on other countries for oil.

            Considering that the US is currently pumping more oil than it can use, and is actively selling it on the foreign market...I seriously doubt what you say would happen in my lifetime.

            If the foreign market dried up, we'd stop selling our excess and enjoy it for many, many years to come.

            • Considering that the US is currently pumping more oil than it can use, and is actively selling it on the foreign market...I seriously doubt what you say would happen in my lifetime.

              Er what? Where do you get your figures? Right now the US is extracting less than 10M barrels of oil per week (1.4M bbl/day) [eia.gov]. Current US oil consumption is almost 20 million barrels per day [eia.gov]. That's a difference 18M bbl/day.

              Refinery capacity is slightly different because the US can refine more than 10M bbl/day but (and this is distinction), not all of that oil is US oil. For example, one reason for the Keystone Pipeline was so that oil from Canada could be transported cheaper than by rail or truck through the

          • by LynnwoodRooster ( 966895 ) on Wednesday July 26, 2017 @02:48PM (#54884895) Journal
            The Green River Formation [wikipedia.org] has 200+ years of oil reserves at the current US rate of ~20 million barrels consumption a day. And that is just one oil reserve within the US. We could be 100% self-sufficient, free of any foreign oil dependence, for literally centuries.
            • by UnknowingFool ( 672806 ) on Wednesday July 26, 2017 @02:59PM (#54885003)
              Not it does not. From your own link

              The Green River Formation contains the largest oil shale deposit in the world. It has been estimated that the oil shale reserves could be equal up to 3 trillion barrels (480 billion cubic metres) of shale oil, up to half of which may be recoverable by shale oil extraction technologies (pyrolysis, hydrogenation, or thermal dissolution of kerogen in oil shale). However, the estimates of recoverable oil has been questioned by geophysicist Raymond T. Pierrehumbert, who argues that the technology for recovering oil from the Green River oil shale deposit has not been developed and has not been profitably implemented at any significant scale.

        • by Jhon ( 241832 )

          It's a good path to take and regardless of regulations it's likely to happen naturally in the market -- oil will get more expensive to get out of the ground sooner or later.

          People calling for "clean emissions" as the reason just seem silly to me. We don't have the ability to generate "clean" power at any level necessary to power cars -- and I recall reading an article in popular mechanics (which was debunking a claim about how much CO2 is required to just MAKE an electric car battery). The "debunked" clai

        • by mspohr ( 589790 )

          EVs will have lower TCO in just a few years. You can keep driving your V-8 but it will cost you dearly. Even cheap fossil fuel is more expensive than electricity and, of course, maintenance on that aging V-8 will cost a lot.
          EVs, OTOH, are cheap to run (equivalent to gas at about 50 cents a gallon) and due to the fact that their drive trains have several thousand fewer parts than and ICE car, are much more reliable... not to mention much better performance than any V-8.

          • by kaatochacha ( 651922 ) on Wednesday July 26, 2017 @02:16PM (#54884521)

            I'm buying a new car, and just ran the numbers for a volt versus a normal gas engine.
            In my commute? I save an amazing $321 a year.
            That's less than $1 a day. in a car which is $3K MORE than the gas car, even after $9K in gov't /state bonuses.
            You wannna push electric vehicles? Lower the cost of Electricity.

            • by mspohr ( 589790 ) on Wednesday July 26, 2017 @03:02PM (#54885039)

              Fuel cost alone is EV=0.03 cents per mile and ICE = 0.20 cents per mile. (YMMV)
              Also, EVs have low maintenance cost. Tires are about the only cost. Brakes last forever; no oil changes; drive train has a few thousand fewer parts to wear and break.
              The more you drive, the more you save.

              • Fuel cost alone is EV=0.03 cents per mile and ICE = 0.20 cents per mile. (YMMV)
                Also, EVs have low maintenance cost. Tires are about the only cost. Brakes last forever; no oil changes; drive train has a few thousand fewer parts to wear and break.
                The more you drive, the more you save.

                On the maintenance, a lot of "maintenance" items I see in cars are outside the base powertrain. I will grant you the brakes(hybrid versions of my car have significantly longer brake life), and I also live in snow country which isn't kind on cars (from corrosion and potholes), but I see people struggling with:
                -Tie rod ends
                -Ball joints
                -Wheel bearings
                -Shocks
                -body work from corrosion
                -random shit failing (instrument cluster, switches, fans, stereos, lights [bulbs or wiring problems], power window motors, power l

            • by hipp5 ( 1635263 ) on Wednesday July 26, 2017 @03:27PM (#54885285)

              I'm buying a new car, and just ran the numbers for a volt versus a normal gas engine. In my commute? I save an amazing $321 a year. That's less than $1 a day. in a car which is $3K MORE than the gas car, even after $9K in gov't /state bonuses. You wannna push electric vehicles? Lower the cost of Electricity.

              Don't forget to factor in maintenance costs. EVs are much simpler with fewer moving parts. No oil changes, no muffler replacements, etc.

              But yeah, I'm not surprised the math doesn't pencil out yet. Modern EVs are still relatively new in the grand scheme of things, and there's a lot of optimizing still to be done. But the math will work out sooner or later. In the meantime the people buying them are doing so for reasons other than hard dollars and cents (i.e. the same reason anyone buys a $30k car in a world where $15k cars exist).

              • I'm buying a new car, and just ran the numbers for a volt

                Don't forget to factor in maintenance costs. EVs are much simpler with fewer moving parts.

                A Volt isn't. It's more complex with more moving parts, since it has all the complexity of an ICEV, plus all of a battery EV, plus all of the complexity for transitioning between the two.

                A BEV is much simpler, though. And can be *much* cheaper. I expect that my TCO for owning my originally factory-new Nissan LEAF for 200K miles will be about $20K, or $0.10 per mile.

                Granted, I kind of lucked out on the cost of the car. I leased it in 2013. At the time, it was a $37K car ($30K after tax credits, which we

        • by green1 ( 322787 )

          Considering the timeline picked, and the age of most politicians. It seems they feel the same way as you do.

      • by mpercy ( 1085347 )

        I thought that was going to happen by 2018 or so, what with all the global warming and such?

    • by OneHundredAndTen ( 1523865 ) on Wednesday July 26, 2017 @03:21PM (#54885213)

      oil will run out one day, but the sun will always shine

      Maybe another 4 billion years but hardly always.

      Major changes in the planet aside, oil will never run out. Rather, at some point it will not make economic sense to drill for it any more. That will hopefully happen some time within the next 20-30 years.

    • Maybe another 4 billion years but hardly always.

      I'm panicking here. Is that short scale or long scale billions?

  • ... assuming the UK is still a first-world nation by 2040.

    • ... assuming the UK is still a first-world nation by 2040.

      It ceased to be one in 1991, since the "Three-World Model" was about national alignments during the Cold War.

    • ... assuming the UK is still a first-world nation by 2040.

      Assuming the UK will still be a country in 2040. If Scotland leaves the UK, I imagine England will still be first world- and Scotland will at least neighbor a first world country.

  • by fred6666 ( 4718031 ) on Wednesday July 26, 2017 @12:52PM (#54883513)

    the UK might be the only western country where petrol-fuelled cars are still on the road

    No, the USA will be dead last

  • Clever Politicking (Score:4, Insightful)

    by hipp5 ( 1635263 ) on Wednesday July 26, 2017 @12:53PM (#54883525)

    Car makers stay profitable by making the same car and selling it around the world (with a few planned modifications, such was flipping the steering wheel, and maybe a renaming). It keeps supply chains simple and amortizes design costs. If major markets in the rest of the world are banning new gas cars by 2025, 2030, or any year before 2040, then the UK won't actually have to do anything. GM isn't going to make an electric cars for other markets, and then have a special gas car for the UK; they'll just stop making gas cars. Legislation or not, by the year 2040 you won't be able to get a new gas car in the UK.

    • Car makers stay profitable by making the same car and selling it around the world (with a few planned modifications, such was flipping the steering wheel, and maybe a renaming). It keeps supply chains simple and amortizes design costs

      While car makers manufacture the same model for different markets (normally in the same region), no maker makes the same car and sells it around the world. There are a number of differences between countries that simple modifications will not be sufficient. At best the cars might look similar but have different interior, engine, features, etc.

      In terms of supply chains, most manufacturers tend to assemble cars closer to their markets (or in their markets) for logistical,economic, and tax reasons. For example

  • by taiwanjohn ( 103839 ) on Wednesday July 26, 2017 @12:56PM (#54883571)

    Some analysts are already predicting [youtube.com] that the car market will be 50% EV by the mid-2020s, and will "tip" rapidly thereafter. This trend is mostly driven by the cost of Li-ion batteries, which has been falling at about 15%/yr for the last couple of decades. When it becomes possible to buy an entry-level EV for $20k or less, why would you even want an ICE vehicle?

    The "fuel" price for EVs is a fraction of that for ICE, as is the maintenance cost. EVs only have a couple-dozen moving parts, compared to thousands in an ICE car. Of course, there will still be "gas car" enthusiasts in 2040, just as there are hobbyists who still maintain antique steam-powered farm equipment. But even by 2030, there will no longer be a need for this law, because the market will already have flipped.

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by jfdavis668 ( 1414919 )
      That will work right up until we run out of Lithium.
    • At least for USians, a substantial part of the cost of gas or diesel is the tax earmarked for new roads and maintaining existing roads. That the EV owner currently does not pay these taxes could be regarded as a subsidy to encourage use of electric cars, but when EVs are numerous, this will change the fuel-cost calculation, especially against the coming generation of more fuel efficient IC engines.

    • by voislav98 ( 1004117 ) on Wednesday July 26, 2017 @01:38PM (#54884057)
      These analysts are typically guys who are not automotive analysts, but technology analysts. They have large misconceptions about the automotive industry and how quickly can the technology change. The transition from ICE to electric engines is a huge one with a number of technology and production issues to still be resolved. Reasonable analyses I've seen from automotive industry guys have hybrids jumping to 25-35% of vehicle sales by 2030, with full electrics staying below 5%. 50% by mid-2020's or even 2030's is a pipe dream.

      To put it simply, Tesla's Gigafactory will take 5 years to build (2015 - 2020 for full capacity) at a cost of $5 billion and will supply batteries for 1.5 million cars. European vehicle sales (passenger cars and light commerial vehicles, which includes SUV's) are in the 10 - 15 million per year range, US are 15 - 20 million per year range. So to supply this volume of vehicles (50% of 25 - 35 million per year), you would need 10 Gigafactories, with building to start by early 2020's. I haven't seen any plans for this to happen, so the battery supply will not be there to build these vehicles. Infrastructure is the second issue. It takes time to build out the network of charging stations and there are no widespread plans to do this either.

      So, all these plans and commitments are meaningless unless they are accompanied by major investments into battery and electric component production and infrastructure investment. When that happens, I'll believe that electric cars will have meaningful sales.
    • The "fuel" price difference between an EV and ICE is almost entirely due to the price difference between coal and gasoline.
      • Coal costs about $50/ton and contains about 24 GJ of energy. That's about 0.21 cents/MJ.
      • Gasoline costs about $3/gallon and contains about 120 MJ/gallon. That's about 2.5 cents/MJ.

      Gasoline is about an order of magnitude more expensive than coal per unit of energy. This is why Hawaii has the highest electricity prices in the U.S. - they generate most of their electricity by burnin

  • Hold on a second! (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Gravis Zero ( 934156 ) on Wednesday July 26, 2017 @12:59PM (#54883597)

    What if this global warming thing is a big hoax and we make a better world for nothing?! ;)

  • by omnichad ( 1198475 ) on Wednesday July 26, 2017 @01:05PM (#54883677) Homepage

    Even if you're burning gas and diesel at electrical plants to generate the electricity, there has to be some economies of scale at work here to give better efficiency. More than enough to outweigh transmission losses and battery charging losses.

  • British Petroleum, what do you think of this idea?
  • In other news, rolling coal [youtube.com] is alive and well in the US.

  • Like leaving the Europe or reintroducing diesel engine vehicles! Meh!

  • Far Enough Off... (Score:5, Informative)

    by pubwvj ( 1045960 ) on Wednesday July 26, 2017 @01:42PM (#54884101)

    2040 is far enough off that the current politicians can make all the promises they want and not suffer any repercussions from failing to meet that goal nor any backlash from folks who object.

    2040 is also far enough off that we might reasonably make the transition from fossil fuels by then as that is a long time in technological terms.

    On the other hand, I have 1968, 1986, 1996 and 2004 delivery vans and there is not a whole lot of difference between them. They all get about the same gas mileage. In fact, they get about the same mileage full or empty. The biggest thing you can do when driving a larger vehicle is make sure you're always carrying at capacity for this reason. It's called backhauling. When we make deliveries we also pickup up spent barley and such for our pastured pig farm to optimize our time and vehicle usage. That makes more difference than doubling the gas mileage.

    In Vermont, where we're located, they aren't quite as optimistic as the UK politicians so they set the deadline for this sort of thing to be 2050 to give another decade of slack.

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