The 'Post-PC Era' Never Really Happened... and Likely Won't (techpinions.com) 218
Mark Lowenstein, writing for Techpinions: As we head toward Apple's annual device announcement-palooza, it's an interesting exercise to consider where we are in Steve Jobs' vaunted, much quoted 'Post-PC Era.' The fact of the matter is, that era never fully arrived, and it doesn't look like it will, in the near- to medium- term future. [...] Tablets have had a good run, but sales have tailed off of late. I'd say they've had greater influence on the evolution of the smartphone and the PC, rather than leading to a significantly different nomenclature for what most of us carry around today. My Techpinions colleague Ben Bajarin says that Creative Strategies surveys indicate that only about 10% of tablet users have 'replaced their PC' -- a number that has held steady for several years. And that 10% is concentrated in a handful of industries, such as real estate and construction. PC sales aren't exactly surging, but they're steady. Your average white collar professional today still carries around a smartphone and a laptop, with the tablet being an ancillary device, used primarily for media/content consumption.
Tablets have had a significant influence on the design of smartphones and PCs. They ushered in an era of smartphone screen upsizing, led primarily by Samsung, and now reinforced by the iPhone X and the expected announcement next week of a 6.5 inch iPhone model. For those who don't want to swing both a smartphone and tablet, we have 'Phablets,' most personified in the successful Galaxy Note series, and alternative-to-keyboard input devices such as the S Pen and the Apple Pencil. We've also seen the development of some hybrid tablet/PC devices, the most innovative and successful of which is Microsoft's Surface line. But that product is competing more in the tablet category than in the PC category, with the exception of a few market segments.
Tablets have had a significant influence on the design of smartphones and PCs. They ushered in an era of smartphone screen upsizing, led primarily by Samsung, and now reinforced by the iPhone X and the expected announcement next week of a 6.5 inch iPhone model. For those who don't want to swing both a smartphone and tablet, we have 'Phablets,' most personified in the successful Galaxy Note series, and alternative-to-keyboard input devices such as the S Pen and the Apple Pencil. We've also seen the development of some hybrid tablet/PC devices, the most innovative and successful of which is Microsoft's Surface line. But that product is competing more in the tablet category than in the PC category, with the exception of a few market segments.
Reasons. (Score:4, Interesting)
Smearing greasy prints on a screen, waving your shit around like an idiot, screaming at your word processor that you mean your, no, not yore, no not you're, no for fuck's sake!, or literally walking through a filesystem... All cute gimmicks that last about ten minutes.
And then you pull out the keyboard and get real work done.
Nobody has yet come up with a remotely serious idea that even has a chance at ousting the PC.
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As stupid as it looks for someone to be taking a picture with a tablet (and yes, I saw someone doing it last week), imagine how much stupider it would look to be taking the picture with the camera on a laptop. So some people need tablets. (But the rest of us will use our laptops for our work, and our phones for taking pictures.)
Re:Reasons. (Score:4, Insightful)
imagine how much stupider it would look to be taking the picture with the camera on a laptop.
If only there were a small device that only took pictures and could then transfer them to the laptop.
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If only there were a small device that only took pictures and could then transfer them to the laptop.
Well, for most people a tablet or cellphone has "good enough" resolution for people to take pictures with. It's easy, fast, they can publish it right from the device. That's one of the reasons why cameras are kinda on a decline. I still do plain old 35mm black and white photography, the stuff I learned in high school as a hobby. But it's becoming mighty expensive, it's around $100 for 100 sheets of B&W 8x10" photopaper, it was around $10 a decade ago. That's not counting on the difficulty to get so
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If only there were a small device that only took pictures and could then transfer them to the laptop.
A Nintendo Gameboy? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
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Squeak for yourself.
The rest of us will use our laptops for looking at inappropriate pictures on the subway, and our phones for texting while driving, walking an operating dangerous machinery.
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Nobody has yet come up with a remotely serious idea that even has a chance at ousting the PC.
I don't think that is true, it's just the current implementations aren't sufficient. I believe docking stations for mobile phones have a very good chance of ousting the PC, and these do already exist. Performance for such a small device is still an issue, although that may not be true much longer. Convergence between mobile OS/apps and the PC counterparts is another obstacle which could also go away soon.
While I doubt software developers or graphic designers would be trading away their PCs and laptops any t
This is a good thing (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:This is a good thing (Score:5, Insightful)
They just aren't as functional.
Tablets aren't as functional due to a few primary limitations: lack of native support for peripherals (the most important of which are mouse devices, which require deep integration with the operating system user interface); lack of ability to fully customize the operating system; lack of ability to truly run multiple applications concurrently; and lack of ability to run whatever software one has access to.
Of course, tablets that are designed to run desktop operating systems don't have these problems. They have a separate problem: after adding a keyboard, mouse, peripheral hub, stand, etc. to make the tablet as functional as a laptop, you might as well just buy a touchscreen ultralight laptop.
Not many people who are seriously productive on a PC are willing to make the compromises required for working with tablets.
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You're right, with a different operating system, a mechanical keyboard, a mouse, and a large monitor attached tablets could be decent.
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Sounds like a PC to me. Man what will people think of next? Calculators on wrist watches again?
Re:This is a good thing (Score:4, Interesting)
Questions to be disgust:
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Tablets do not replace PCs and laptops. They just aren't as functional. Tablets are nice for reading and doing light work but for anything that requires real heavy-weight work, the PC reigns king.
Tablets aren't as functional because manufacturers haven't made them as functional. The hardware in high end tablets like the ipad or mid to high end smartphones are capable of driving a desktop experience. What is lacking is the seamless docking for a large screen area and a keyboard and mouse for higher productivity and ergonomics. Some of those are design choices that it seems are being made in order to drive PC/Mac sales.
But people aren't going to want to spend on two high cost computing devices for
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Someone alert Microsoft so they can put back keyboard based functionality. Windows 10 just makes it slower to interact with the software.
No I don't use a mouse at all if I can do it that way. Yes I'm faster than you.
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There you go. And for me the winning formula has been Debian linux and the icewm window manager, which imitates the Windows 95 interface, from back before Microsoft lost their marbles.
It sure would be nice if some more open source projects would get a clue about this, though--- you'd think that shoveling everything under a hamburger and a gear would be an obvious Bad Idea...
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But.. but... I saw this ad, where a kid was doing all sorts of stuff, and then asked his neighbor, "What's a PC?"
It was on TV, so it MUST be true!!!
Re:This is a good thing (Score:4, Interesting)
And how much "heavy weight work" does an average family do?
What tablets and smartphones did was reduce PC usage. It never quite eliminated it. (And even Steve Jobs admitted it - in the post-PC era, there would still be PCs becaues they're like trucks - and there are plenty of tasks a truck can do that a car can't).
But instead of having to have a PC for everyone, usage slipped a fair bit. You still have to have a family PC for homework and probably Mom or Dad brings home a work laptop to work from home, but for light web browsing, and of course the inevitable netflix and facebook and all that stuff, the kids will just use their smartphones and tablets and be done with it. (Sharing photos on social media is much easier on a smartphone/tablet than on a PC).
We'll always have PCs. The reality is, we don't need as many PCs as we used to since many tasks that were once done by PCs (e.g., web browsing, reading, netflix) have moved off of them and onto more specialized devices like phones, tablets, or set top boxes.
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And that is just it. A lot of "old tech" does not go away but stays and new things are just complementing it for special uses. PCs will stay around for a long, long time, for example for all the gaming smaller devices cannot really do. Sure, smaller devices can do a lot today, but they are (and will remain) inferior in all areas were performance matters for a long time, and maybe forever as computing power has hit a brick wall some 5...10 years ago or so.
And yet, it still happened. (Score:3)
In many senses, it already happened.
How many programs did you download to your PC? My mom uses a browser and mostly nothing else. Most people I know are perfectly happy with online Office and Google apps. My e-mail client is a web application, as is my calendar, my spreadsheet and my notepad. My word processor is also a web application. What's left is the collection of compilers and system administration tools, terminals and so on most users don't need or know how to use.
The fact they are still x86-based laptops or desktops is due to manufacturing scales, mostly.
Re:And yet, it still happened. (Score:4, Interesting)
In many senses, it already happened.
No, it didn't. Did you walk through your office and see all the employees typing away on their tablets, getting all that mission-critical business stuff done? No? Me either. Until businesses are able to use tablets to do all their "business stuff," the pc will continue to be king.
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How many programs did you download to your PC?
Even apart from retro game emulators (FCEUX, BGB, and mGBA) and programming tools (cc65, RGBDS, Python, Git, and GNU toolchains for both x86-64 and ARM7), I've downloaded FamiTracker, GIMP, LibreOffice, and the Dropbox client. But then I'm a retro game developer.
Most people I know are perfectly happy with online Office and Google apps.
What do they use when there's no Internet connection, such as while riding the bus in a city whose buses do not provide Wi-Fi to riders? Do they pay a cellular carrier for the ability to use an LTE dongle for their laptop? Or do they instead just re
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Even if web apps we're good enough for everything, the UI is nowhere close to handling multitasking efficiently. I use desktop email and desktop word processing primarily because I can alt-tab and easily have multiple windows up on my screen at once. I believe if Chrome crashes, it only restores tabs for one window.
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Even if web apps we're good enough for everything, the UI is nowhere close to handling multitasking efficiently.
Right, and this is simply because Google doesn't want that, it would let you install and use standard LibreOffice instead of Google Docs. This is what is wrong with having one self-interested corporation own the firmware. If this roadblock was removed then tablets could really be PC replacements (the hardware is already 100% there) and the tablet market would start to increase again.
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And every single window is grouped on the taskbar under a single Firefox icon (in Windows, Mac, and Unity/Ubuntu). If web apps that are in a dedicated window for their own icon and spot, that would be a start for usability.
Re:And yet, it still happened. (Score:4, Interesting)
In many senses, it already happened.
How many programs did you download to your PC? My mom uses a browser and mostly nothing else...
Just the ones I can recall of the top of my head...
Firefox
Thunderbird
Turbo Lister
Libre Office
Star Trek Online
VLC
Audacity
VirtualDub
Arachnophilia (for my HTML editor)
GIMP
Teamspeak/Ventrilo/Mumble depending on what group we are running with
Celestia
AviDemux
Calibre
And that is just a small sampling.
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You describe one faction of the marker. There are enough other ones that need PCs and will remain large enough that they will be kept available. Do not forget that there was a nice market for PCs with pretty reasonable hardware selection 30 years ago, when all this was much, much smaller. The PC may eventually go niche (but not anytime soon due to gaming), but it will not go away in the foreseeable future.
Reality is... (Score:5, Insightful)
... the big sucking sound for software is coming to close down PC's. We've seen huge gains by Vavle and the game industry to lock down PC's, couple that with smart phone games and emulators like nox and then top it off with windows 10. There is huge pressure to keep taking away control of the machine from end users largely because customers can't reach these companies to punch them in the nads for their theiverous practices. The internet has allowed companies to force policies on populations that don't want them through attrition (aka, are you not going to buy videogames forever if devs choose to release drm infested games?). The market is over and we're finally seeing our society enter a feudal like faze where capitalism is transforming itself into a new feudalism of serfs who have no rights to own the things they buy and lords you extract tribute through simply not being able to be reached by the peasants.
Very well said. (Score:2)
On point in every case. This is something that is amazing to watch as the next generations cede all their agency to corporate overlords, all the while thanking them for the privilege of being misused. Sickening.
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We've seen huge gains by Vavle and the game industry to lock down PC's,
You mean the Vavle [sic] that's releasing a tool to help your Windows games run on Linux?
couple that with smart phone games and emulators like nox
You know there's more to computing than games, right?
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You know there's more to computing than games, right?
I don't believe in software as a service nor having my operating system spy on me.
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You know there's more to computing than games, right?
I don't believe in software as a service nor having my operating system spy on me.
I don't believe that's a meaningful response to what I said. It's like I told you "there is no Santa Claus" and you said "I like potatoes!"
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You know there's more to computing than games, right?
I don't believe in software as a service nor having my operating system spy on me.
I don't believe that's a meaningful response to what I said. It's like I told you "there is no Santa Claus" and you said "I like potatoes!"
It's also not meaningful to seize on one word of a response and ignore the rest of it.
The original poster provided zero non-game-related examples, so I focused on games. If you have a problem with this, go back and complain to the original poster about their low-quality comment.
For many, games are the only local computing (Score:5, Interesting)
You know there's more to computing than games, right?
True, but for many users, there isn't more to local computing than games. I've gathered through conversation with other Internet users that many of them use only two categories of application: 1. web applications and 2. native games. They don't use any native non-game applications not shipped with a device's operating system. They could be satisfied with an Xbox One and a Chromebook.
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They could be satisfied with an Xbox One and a Chromebook.
Ah, but a Chromebook is a PC, they're even looking at making it possible to install full-blown Windows on it without anything wacky.
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Ah, but a Chromebook is a PC
"Developer Information for Chrome OS Devices" [chromium.org] disagrees with this claim:
I am aware of six ways to use a Chromebook as if it were a general-purpose PC, each of which has serious drawbacks.
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You're cherry-picking the behavior of Valve and saying it doesn't matter because it's only games. While failing to see the same trend and tactics being employed by everyone.
Adobe? Rent your software.
MS? Rent your office suite. And we also own your update schedule. We'll also track you relentlessly. And who knows, maybe (probably!) we'll decide to only allow installation of software from approved sources)
Valve: already covered, but they're inserting themselves as the gatekeeper for the entire video game
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We've seen huge gains by Vavle and the game industry to lock down PC's
Since when has Valve done anything "to lock down PCs"? If you start buying games from a source other than Steam, you won't lose access through the Steam client to the games you've already bought on Steam.
are you not going to buy videogames forever if devs choose to release drm infested games?
That assumes all developers will actually stop releasing DRM-infested games. Games purchased from GOG, Itch, and Humble are less likely to contain digital restrictions management. Newly developed NES games purchased on cartridge from RetroUSB or Infinite NES Lives never contain online digital restrictions m
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Yeah, it's actually very bad for Valve for platforms to be locked down. Steam is an alternate distribution method that's in competition with Apple's and Microsoft's app stores. If alternate distribution methods are shut down, they lose a big chunk of their business.
I don't think people want control (Score:4, Insightful)
Also, there's a huge difference between somebody who likes gadgets and a technophile. We often conflate the two and think there's more technophiles than there really are.
Re: Reality is... (Score:2)
Sure it will (Score:2)
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The problem with tablets... (Score:5, Interesting)
...is that devices specifically manufactured and marketed as tablets first and foremost are limited. They don't successfully replace all of the functions of a PC, in that the software written for them and the nature of how they're designed to interact with peripherals and with other systems is restricted. In some senses this can be a good thing, we don't have quite as many problems with poorly written software crashing the OS, but because of the walled-garden approach that both Android and Apple have taken, there's simply less functionality. On top of that, due to the battery-operated, portable nature of the devices, they don't do the CPU-intensive tasks as well as something designed to be plugged into the wall, or even something that carries a lot more mass in batteries.
In an ideal world, I would have a very small device that could interface to any screen and set of input devices that I so chose. It could serve as my phone, it could serve as my book reader, it could serve to watch movies, could serve as a portable computer for business functions, could serve as my full-featured desktop computer, depending on what set of peripherals I'm using with it. Unfortunately desktop computer operating systems don't do the mobile functions too well, and the mobile operating systems don't offer the freedom I need for desktop functions.
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I think this is all reasonable, but I would add the emphasis and lack of mouse support in tablets, especially iPads (which had the broadest platform adoption) hurt the use cases of tablets.
I felt like there was a lot more I could have been doing with my iPad if I had a mouse that wasn't specifically limited by the screen or CPU. Editing larger text documents, light graphics stuff (ie, PowerPoint/Paint type, not Photoshop) was all super cumbersome with touch-screen only input.
I was excited about using it as
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There is mouse support in Android. If one connects a bluetooth mouse, a cursor appears. The button controls are unfortunately like the hand-gesture controls rather than typical desktop computer mouse functions, but it's not entirely unusable.
I've actually done a fair bit to get my android phone as far toward a laptop replacement as I can get for what I need for my job, but the restrictions on software talking directly to the hardware (I need a serial console, and can't do it in the terminal environment I
Android doesn't have a walled garden (Score:2)
I wish Windows had that level of security. It makes Malware a lot harder since if I go install a dumb little single player game and it wants access to my network, contacts list an
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On top of that, due to the battery-operated, portable nature of the devices, they don't do the CPU-intensive tasks as well as something designed to be plugged into the wall, or even something that carries a lot more mass in batteries.
With a big push to move a lot of applications into the cloud (gmail, Google docs, etc.) we're starting so see the same kind of situation where the tablet just acts as a dumb terminal or thin client and most of the computation happens elsewhere. I think there were even some services where this was done for games. All of the rendering was done on high-end graphics cards in a rack somewhere else and the video was streamed to the customer's device where they'd input commands that got sent off to the cloud.
I'
Netscape and Sun both won. (Score:5, Interesting)
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Never had to install a special package to log into my bank. Never needed a special package to track a package. As Equifax and the US government confirmed for me, I will never use an online service to file my taxes.
Your examples are about situations where your data resides on someones system. It doesn't reside on yours except for the income tax software. Nothing has changed for me. All my original data resides on my systems. All my pictures, financials, letters, emails, etc.... I can't afford to put it onlin
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Never had to install a special package to log into my bank. Never needed a special package to track a package.
I used desktop apps for both back in the mid 90s.
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Christ, you fuckers are old
It's better than the alternative.
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Old tech != useless (Score:3)
People forget that the current way of working on a PC evolved over 150ish years....
It is still the most efficient way to work over long hours (assuming correct posture) with the least amount of effort required (imagine your arms after having to navigate for 7 hoursusing touch with 2 32" 4K displays).
Also businesses have invested BILLIONS in software that currently only run on x86-AMD64 architecture (and in fact due to their GUI and information density not really usable on touch navigation) that they are in no hurry to replace.
It's possible that one day we will replace all desktops with smartphones powerfull enough to run x86-AMD64 emulators to run legacy apps, however mouse/keyboard/screen setup is not going away any time soon.
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People forget that the current way of working on a PC evolved over 150ish years
I appear to have fallen asleep and woken up 100 years in the future.
Hello world!
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The 2 key problems: Input and output (Score:4, Interesting)
Yes, tablets are powerful enough today to do most of what most people want to use a laptop or PC for, with one exception: Sensible input and output. Sorry, but the screen-keyboard of a tablet is useless compared to a normal keyboard. If you don't agree, show me your touch-typing on a tablet with more than 80 wpm and we'll talk.
Likewise, output is atrocious. When you're used to 22" screens as your display real estate, trying to get used to screens not even 1/4 the size is really taxing.
It's a neat tool to check your mail while on the go. I give you that. But getting any sensible work done is next to impossible on them.
The software sucks (Score:3)
It's a neat tool to check your mail while on the go. I give you that. But getting any sensible work done is next to impossible on them.
That's because the software for tablets by and large sucks. It's basically the same software designed for smartphone with minimal changes in most cases. Not powerful enough to replace a real PC but nothing much added over a smartphone even when it could be.
They should be great for a wide variety of tasks but the makers of these things got lazy. So they get treated as a poor mans laptop or a content consumption device but they could be more. Not to mention that the peripherals which could make using them
What if the iPad had embraced keyboard and mouse? (Score:4, Interesting)
I always wonder what would have happened if Apple had decided that a keyboard and more importantly a mouse was an acceptable iPad peripheral.
I mostly liked my iPads (1 & 3) but over time felt hemmed in by the lack of a mouse. I had a keyboard case which made text input a lot better, but the lack of a mouse and the clumsy nature of screen touch made editing anything an impossible chore and even the promise of RDP to desktops unappealing for anything more than basic status checks or the most marginal of activities.
If Apple had allowed mice, would the iPad have gained more ground from PCs?
Just use a laptop if you want a mouse (Score:3)
If Apple had allowed mice, would the iPad have gained more ground from PCs?
No because it would have allowed software makers to get lazy (in a different way) about how the device would be used. Look at styluses for an example. Software makers tended to use these as nothing more than mice when given the chance even though a stylus makes a terrible mouse. Styluses are best for drawing and only drawing and to treat them as a substitute for a mouse (or worse keyboard) is a recipe for failure. If you want a mouse get a machine designed with that in mind - aka a PC. Tablets have fin
Windows Phone (Score:2)
I never took it seriously in the first place (Score:5, Insightful)
Please make a Macbook body with iPad display (Score:2)
I would be very interested in a macbook body with an ipad as a display, detachable of course. Unfortunately the issues of touchbar, no ports, and no replaceable battery are huge downsides, that I see Apple never changing, even though it would increase their notebook sales.
As someone that does in-home support on the side.. (Score:4, Interesting)
What I see in 90% of homes are families that have a laptop for the mother, tablets for the little kids and smartphones for teens. Dad tends to be in the "man cave" drinking, or uses a work provided laptop, typically both.
It has become extremely rare to see desktop PC's in a home unless the person telecommutes or operates a home business on the side. Gamer's are really the only group left that stick to PC's but there is a growing trend to go with gaming laptops since they are easier to take to a friend's house/dorm.
Cool (Score:2)
They stopped improving tablets (Score:5, Insightful)
Tablets have had a good run, but sales have tailed off of late.
That's because they ceased making them better. Almost every tablet I've seen is nothing more than a supersized smartphone and it runs more or less the exact same software. I haven't bought an iPad because it really does nothing for me that my iPhone doesn't do competently and if I need more computing power my PC will run rings around any tablet on the market. Tablet's exist in the space between smartphones and laptops which constrains them on both sides. They aren't as portable as smartphones and they aren't as powerful as PCs. To grow further they need to do offer something which neither smartphones or PCs can easily match.
What seems to be happening is that tablets are slowly becoming low end laptops rather than their own distinct type of device. It's not clear if this is a good thing or a bad thing but it does explain why they've plateaued.
Other problems include that the accessories for tablets tend to be complete afterthoughts. The keyboards, and covers and other periferals are not well integrated. Apple introduced the Apple Pencil which functions fine but lacks software support and has no physical integration with the device. You have to carry it separately rather than sliding it into a convenient holder where it gets charged when not in use.
Looking back at it... (Score:2)
I remember when the claim of a post-pc era hit slashdot. I laughed. I was more than a little skeptical. Then I was a little scared. In the weeks and months that followed, I argued passionately that there will be no end of the pc era. That these devices are toys, useless, no good to anyone. And they were. The early dozen generations of mobile devices really sucked for anything but playing thumbzilla and watching netflix. It all seemed like a waste.
My job never changed. Not really. Now the corporation makes m
The PC market can survive much smaller (Score:2)
Basically 3-4 mainboard manufacturers and 2 CPU/GPU manufacturers are entirely enough, especially as things have massively slowed down performance-wise. That means hardware designs live longer and hence design cost is lower. Manufacturing cost is not that much of an issue either, as savings from large volumes only go so far. Even if the PC market drops down to 10% of its current volume, it will not go away. And since PC gaming is also not going away, it will remain much larger.
My take is the "end of the PC
no content creation killer app (Score:2)
I think the reason PCs didn't get replaced by tablets is that there didn't arrive any reasonable method for content creation on touch-only machines. This can be done (think Minority Report) but requires a tremendous amount of work in establishing a sufficiently sophisticated input method, way beyond what's available on today's smartphones, and that never happened. I think people quickly realized that tablets are great for content consumption, but beside putting cute little ears and noses on pictures, not
I declare the end of an era... (Score:2)
... Yes, we are in a post-hammer world now. Screwdrivers have displaced them, and now rule!
For fuck's sake people, how about 'the right tool for the job'? Some stuff that PC's were used for in the past can now be conveniently handled by phones and tablets. Some can not.
Some tasks require keyboards and big displays and tons of storage and RAM and CPU, and some do not.
And some of us old geezers need keyboards and big displays, because we don't have the eyesight we once did.
And some of us who fought in the tre
...the pc is still useful... (Score:2)
Microsoft Surface (Score:3)
Is the future. A hybrid
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They are just a different form factor for convenience when performing different tasks. PCs, tablets, and smartphones are destined for convergence.
Those two statements appear to be at opposition with each other. The fact that these devices have different form factors to conveniently perform different tasks is why they will not converge. They will continue to be very similar, and perhaps the OS and apps on the devices will converge, but ultimately there is a reason each form factor exists. To use a car analogy, it is similar to why we have sedans, SUV / minivans, and trucks. Each are very similar, and often share the same frames and internal components
Re:They are one and the same (Score:5, Insightful)
To use a car analogy, it is similar to why we have sedans, SUV / minivans, and trucks.
Back in the '90s, the proverbial "killer app" to get everyone to buy a personal computer was The Internet. You needed your email and web surfing and the only way to do that was with a personal computer--despite some attempts to make it otherwise [vice.com].
Which was great for companies that made personal computers. Because while you had competition, "a rising tide lifts all boats." Whether I buy a Dell, HP, Asus, or Toshiba, I'm still essentially buying the same thing. One might be "better" than the other, but these companies compete against each other for essentially the same thing.
The problem is that the tide is starting to go out. People aren't buying as many traditional personal computers. Phones are now personal computers--while it can only do about 50% of what a personal computer can do, it can do 100% of what most people want to do with their personal computer. The economies of scale that made the generic personal computer so successful are now threatened--the personal computer my Mom bought to surf the web is a 3 year-old version of the top-of-the-line computer that I bought to develop software when it first came out. But this time she bought a tablet--something different. The company that made that high-end computer can't move their costs down after a year or two for a wider audience because that market is fragmented.
In some ways, that means higher prices up front for the latest and greatest because they'll have a harder time selling last year's model. My Mom is no longer subsidizing my cheap hardware by buying the three year-old model of what I bought.
Phones and PC likely to remain complementary (Score:5, Insightful)
People aren't buying as many traditional personal computers.
While there is some truth to the idea that some activities are more convenient on a phone or tablet, I think the larger culprit in declining PC sales is their increased longevity. We are long past the point where the computational power of a PC has exceeded the needs of many users, where a new computer has no perceptible performance increase over a three year old computer for many users. Now granted I installed ample RAM in my 8 year old PC when I built it but it is still a useful machine, even for many video games with a video card upgrade every 2-3 years.
Phones are now personal computers--while it can only do about 50% of what a personal computer can do, it can do 100% of what most people want to do with their personal computer.
Perhaps "many" not "most". For longer endurance activities, outside of gaming, larger screens and real keyboards are more necessary. Phones and PCs will likely remain complementary devices, in the developed world people will likely continue to have both. Tablets and PCs, there we may have convergence, a "laptop" becoming a "dock" and a detachable "screen".
My Mom is no longer subsidizing my cheap hardware by buying the three year-old model of what I bought.
Similar story in my family. The "retired" folks who just wants email, Skype, web browsing and online shopping in moderate proportions is finding a tablet quite satisfactory. And this includes people who had used computers for many years at work.
But for people in school or still working, I think PCs will be hard to replace with tablets.
I am actually fine with this (Score:2)
If the "consumer" market for desktop computing dries up, the market for home-tinkerable desktop computing will expand in comparison.
My Mom doesn't care about soldered-down RAM and SSDs, but I do, a lot.
Anything that makes the market in general (and Apple in particular) listen more to people who just want to add more RAM later when they actually need it, is a good thing in my book.
Re: (Score:3)
They are just a different form factor for convenience when performing different tasks. PCs, tablets, and smartphones are destined for convergence.
Those two statements appear to be at opposition with each other. The fact that these devices have different form factors to conveniently perform different tasks is why they will not converge. They will continue to be very similar, and perhaps the OS and apps on the devices will converge, but ultimately there is a reason each form factor exists.
I'm leaning towards the hardware converging but the software not. For example a tablet can simply be a removable laptop screen, or if you want to look from the "other" side laptops become docks for tablets. To use Apple as an example I would expect the screen to run iOS when undocked and macOS when docked.
Smartphone being part of the convergence is trickier given the pocket sized requirement. For longer work sessions that laptop sized screen would seem a necessity. There might be convergence in the sense
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Really? I can't do any useful professional work on a phone, except to phone people. I can't use the tablet to write software, interface with lab equipment, and it reduces my typing words-per-minute to single digits. The tablet can however be used to read some simple emails, useful for trips to the loo. On a computer I can do real work. I can't imagine how these will converge unless every human becomes merely a content consumer.
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Mobile devices have those neutered OSes that only let you install approved software and don't give you full control over your own property
(Looks at rooted custom ROM Android phone) Maybe you're just using the wrong mobile device?
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Mobile devices have those secure OSes which only execute authorized machine code and don't give bad guys full control over your property.
Yeah, thank God those mobile device manufacturers have finally put a stop to the malware problem!
Re:They are one and the same (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:They are one and the same (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:They are one and the same (Score:4, Insightful)
Fool. The user is always supposed to have ultimate control over the device. Fuck off with your scare-mongering as an excuse for sloth and apathy. If a user refuses to learn, they deserve what they get. Dont bust out the golden shackles and try to tell me its jewelry.
There are a LOT more users that don't give a shit about having "ultimate control" than you assume. What you call golden shackles the average user calls blissful ignorance; and they're quite happy not knowing or being responsible for their hardware.
In fact, most of the shit you own and operate today you don't have "ultimate control" over, so I'm not really sure where your delusional demands are stemming from here.
Machine code authorized by whom? (Score:3)
Mobile devices have those secure OSes which only execute authorized machine code and don't give bad guys full control over your property.
That'd be fine so long as A. the owner of a device[1] has authority to authorize machine code to run on that device, and B. asserting this authority doesn't require a separate purchase from the same or an affiliated manufacturer with a price that meets or exceeds the price of the device.
[1] Or, in the case of a corporate owned device, an authenticated user chosen by the owner.
Re:Machine code authorized by whom? (Score:5, Interesting)
I like how Google has done this on the Chromebooks. You CAN put it in developer mode, if you want to. You still get to run Chrome OS (and Android). Yet the device is effectively rooted. You can install a Linux desktop (or several at once) via Crouton. And run all the untrusted code to your heart's content. (Tip: Since the "Downloads" folder is mapped to "Downloads" in each Linux desktop, put a lot of persistent stuff there, and then symlink it into each desktop Linux from where it is under "Downloads".)
In the mode I just described, you only get to run authorized code under Chrome OS and Android -- but you can run all your favorite untrusted code under Crouton. Or ignore Crouton. From the crosh shell you can simply type 'shell' and have root access.
Furthermore, for people who want to jump through even more hoops, you can replace the firmware. You can dual boot. Or you can simply wipe Chrome OS entirely and install Linux.
Finally, to people who say they want to have 100% control. Yes, you do. In principle. But in reality do I have 100% control? Unless I personally vet every single line of code, do I really know everything I'm executing in Ubuntu Unity, or Xfce? If I use the self-update features in Linux, do I really have 100% control any more than poor Microsoft schlobs?
Accidental powerwash (Score:2)
You CAN put it in developer mode, if you want to.
My biggest complaint about Chromebook developer mode is its complete lack of durability [slashdot.org]. If someone else turns it on and presses two keys as prompted, this triggers a powerwash, causing you to lose data since the last daily backup as well as the use of apps that had been installed until you have a chance to restore from backup. Until Crostini support becomes more widespread, how practical is it to carry around backup media wherever you carry your Chromebook?
Furthermore, for people who want to jump through even more hoops, you can replace the firmware.
If a Chromebook's firmware has been replaced, and
Re: (Score:2)
I keep physical control of my pixelbook. So I haven't had the durability problem you speak of. (or at least haven't had it yet)
I don't know about the write protect screw and voiding the warranty. That would be an interesting question.
Re: (Score:2)
Thanks, I prefer to have 100% control over what I install and run.
Re:What's a computer? (Score:4, Insightful)
The computer's mystery is exceeded only by its power.
That's what a datacenter used to look like (Score:2)
Anyone who watches TV knows that a computer is a large mysterious machine that occupies a large room. It communicates via many blinking lights [...] Mere mortals are separated from computers by a large glass windows. The computer operators wear white lab coats.
Still somewhat accurate, except that sort of room-filling computer is called a "server cluster" or "on-premises cloud" nowadays.
There is no readily apparent mechanism by which the humans communicate to the machine; but it doesn't seem to need their useless opinions.
Humans communicate to the machine through devices called "terminals". These come in the form of smartphones, tablets running a smartphone OS, and Chromebooks, precisely the devices that were associated with the "post-PC era".
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And they are dark, scary, cold rooms with unnatural ghostly blue flashing lights.
> "terminals". These come in the form of smartphones, tablets running a smartphone OS, and Chromebooks, precisely the devices that were associated with the "post-PC era".
Ultra modern, portable computers, emulating . . . a CRT terminal device from decades ago.
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Ultra modern, portable computers, emulating . . . a CRT terminal device from decades ago.
... which emulates a teletype.
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Since you missed the joke, see the current iPad ad where a kid says exactly that: https://youtu.be/sQB2NjhJHvY [youtu.be]
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That ad was a brilliant piece of marketing. It pissed off so many people and they still like to bring it up.
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A child asking what's a computer angered that many people?
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That is a person that does complicated computations for science and engineering. Recently they all lost their jobs and were replaced with machines.
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That's what I read on slashdot while driving to work.
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What good is a projected keyboard when fast typing requires that you don't even look at it?