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Microsoft Operating Systems Windows

The End of the Desktop? (computerworld.com) 357

Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols, writing for ComputerWorld : Of course, at one time, to get any work done with a computer, you first had to learn a lot, about computers, operating systems, commands and more. Eventually, "friendly" became the most important adverb in computing circles, and we've reached the point in user-friendliness that people don't even talk about it anymore. Today, Google has shown with its Chrome OS that most of us can pretty much do anything we need to do on a computer with just a web browser. But Google's path is not Microsoft's path. Instead, it's moving us first to Windows as desktop as a service (DaaS) via Microsoft Managed Desktop (MMD). This bundles Windows 10 Enterprise, Office 365 and Enterprise Mobility + Security and cloud-based system management into Microsoft 365 Enterprise.

The next step, Windows Virtual Desktop, enables companies to virtualize Windows 7 and 10, Office 365 ProPlus apps and other third-party applications on Azure-based virtual machines. If all goes well, you'll be able to subscribe to Windows Virtual Desktop this fall. Of course, Virtual Desktop is a play for business users -- for now. I expect Virtual Desktop to be offered to consumers in 2020. By 2025, Windows as an actual desktop operating system will be a niche product. Sound crazy? Uh, you do know that Microsoft already really, really wants you to "rent" Office 365 rather than buy Office 2019, don't you?

But what about games, you say? We'll always have Windows for games! Will we? Google, with its Google Stadia gaming cloud service, is betting we're ready to move our games to the cloud as well. It's no pipe dream. Valve has been doing pretty well for years now with its Steam variation on this theme. So where is all this taking us? I see a world where the PC desktop disappears for all but a few. Most of us will be writing our documents, filling out our spreadsheets and doing whatever else we now do on our PCs via cloud-based applications on smart terminals running Chrome OS or Windows Lite. If you want a "real" PC, your choices are going to be Linux or macOS.

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The End of the Desktop?

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  • Soon (Score:5, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Thursday April 04, 2019 @12:33PM (#58384594)

    It is also the year of the Linux desktop!

    • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

      by Anonymous Coward

      I've had a Linux desktop for two decades now.

    • It still can't play all that many games.
      M$ should open source DX11
    • by Anonymous Coward on Thursday April 04, 2019 @01:11PM (#58384890)

      The desktop was always a stupid metaphor to sell computers to businessmen. Although an excusable one.

      Actual computer users, as opposed to users of fixed-function appliances that happened to be implemented "on a computer" (cue patent jokes), always by definition needed a programmable open interface, and small modules to glue together with them.

      Even professionals who were forced onto desktop systems, made their own programming environments.
      Businesses made their spreadsheeds (a form of functional programming), and 3D designers/engineers had full customizable software (like Maya) with easy scriptability.

      The iDiot generation was the first who had never encountered that side of things before. And they want to be at the helm of cultural development now. Precisely becuase they are so oblivious to literally all the things. So they of course declared everything not like iOS nor for consumers outdated and useless.

      But anyone who wants to actually *make* anything at all with computers, *will* sooner or later long for programmability. Even if never before seen.

      So Linux, the OS of actual computer users, is so successful, precisely because it's not a desktop OS.

      • This. One man's user friendliness is another man's developer hostility. All those user friendly layers you pile on top of the raw computing interfaces just get in the way of writing your own code. So you want to run your own software on Windows or Android? Here, just buy and install this huge development environment first. Because we try to separate the users from the developers as much as possible, we can't just let anyone code around.

        http://iki.fi/teknohog/rants/w... [iki.fi]
        http://iki.fi/teknohog/rants/u... [iki.fi]

        • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

          Soooo... you don't use an IDE?

          I'm not making fun of you. I code in a minimal text editor. Code completion drives me up the wall. But almost nobody else does that.

          • Soooo... you don't use an IDE?

            I'm not making fun of you. I code in a minimal text editor. Code completion drives me up the wall. But almost nobody else does that.

            I code in a maximal text editor (emacs), but that's beside the point. The question is, are you allowed to code and run your own programs without becoming a Certified(TM) BigCompany(TM) Professional(TM) Developer(TM)?

            This relates to another recent Slashdot thread [slashdot.org] -- how do today's kids get interested in programming? In the 80s, home computers would always come with some kind of programming environment by default. In fact, it was usually the default user interface itself (Basic interpreter). Today you need

  • by JoeyRox ( 2711699 ) on Thursday April 04, 2019 @12:34PM (#58384596)
    Granted sales have been declining steadily but we're about as close to the end of the desktop as we are to End times.
    • by Kjella ( 173770 )

      I must admit that "convergence" devices has gained a whole lot less steam than I thought. Though I think a lot of these hurdles aren't really inherent but coming from different hardware (ARM vs x86), different operating systems (Android vs Windows), different control paradigms (touch vs keyboard/mouse), different degree of openness (store vs user installed) and the deals on offer have been severely compromised on their non-native side. Besides smartphones have been a tsunami [starkinsider.com] that put 95% focus on catching t

    • by jbengt ( 874751 )
      No, TFA is not about sales of computers.
      It is about sales of the desktop operating system, which, according to TFA, is being pushed to the cloud by MS, so it will no longer be a stand-alone thing.
    • If Microsoft wants to stop selling operating systems, and stop updating operating systems, but you've built your whole company's business model around using MS products, what will you do?

      And don't forget to consider the fact that once MS no longer cares about the desktop, and they're no longer selling any, then it can begin finger-pointing along the lines of:
      "All hacking today is done on locally used platforms, not our Azure services - we can prove it." ...and laws begin to form around the same concept.

  • Ownership (Score:5, Insightful)

    by fluffernutter ( 1411889 ) on Thursday April 04, 2019 @12:34PM (#58384598)
    How will I own any of my data if I don't have a place in my house to store it all?
    • Re:Ownership (Score:4, Insightful)

      by MrLogic17 ( 233498 ) on Thursday April 04, 2019 @12:38PM (#58384626) Journal

      Too late.
      Where is your E-Mail? Not many regular users have full POP clients anymore.

      That just one example.

      • My email is both on the Internet and saved locally via an IMAP client. Most business users do the same, except with Outlook. Of course, email uses the Internet by necessity. There's no operational necessity to save locally-edited documents on Someone Else's Computer(tm), despite what Nerdella may want...
      • Google accepts IMAP and POP. Every provider I have had with email has accepted IMAP and POP.

        Why would anyone use a browser to check their mail unless absolutely desperate? We lost several important emails years ago because MS decided to shut down our hotmail account. Later, we moved and had to use a different provider and had to check mail that was in the old provider. You pretty much have to keep mail locally if you want to keep it.
  • by DigitalSorceress ( 156609 ) on Thursday April 04, 2019 @12:38PM (#58384622)

    I swear, we get these so often.. desktops are dead / desktops are dying..

    Yeah yeah, sure the vast number of phone/tablet/mobile users are a significant portion of traffic.

    However I think these fairly regular announcements of the death of desktop computing are ... hyperbolic "outrage bait"

    There will always be a place for desktop machines.. PC gaming / VR, Music and video production/editing, development, 3d modeling/ graphic design, all these things are going to keep PCs on desktops for a long time yet IMHO

    • by Artem S. Tashkinov ( 764309 ) on Thursday April 04, 2019 @12:47PM (#58384702) Homepage

      Also, quite a lot of people love to own their data. Like physically own it and don't share it with random parties you really don't know anything about. Also, the speed and availability of access is an issue. God forbid your Internet dies and suddenly you cannot open anything on your no longer connected device.

      Again the talks of desktop dying are mostly a click bate.

    • by blahplusplus ( 757119 ) on Thursday April 04, 2019 @01:00PM (#58384812)

      I swear, we get these so often.. desktops are dead / desktops are dying..

      Yeah yeah, sure the vast number of phone/tablet/mobile users are a significant portion of traffic.

      You don't seem to understand why companies want to get rid of freedom and general computing on the PC, we're seeing the big lockdown with windows 10.

      See these numbers, this is what they want the lockdown that produces profits.

      https://newzoo.com/wp-content/... [newzoo.com]

      The last 20 years software has been locked down on the PC starting with RPG's when they were rebranded mmo's and taken hostage, the whole gameplan is to prevent software and file ownership on the PC. Steam and game companies have been getting away with this theft for years on the PC and mobile, where you pay for software, but never get a copy of said game or software making game preservation completely impossible.

      Windows 10 already can disable and 'update the os' to disable your games, they want to move to feudal locked down computing where they are constantly checking and spying on you to see whether you have permission to run the software that is running on your PC.

      We've already seen PC gaming in the AAA space have level editors and dedicated servers all but wiped out because of the desire for microtransactions and advertising/streaming, they want to monetize the time and attention of end users and that makes no ownership for you.

    • by tlhIngan ( 30335 )

      However I think these fairly regular announcements of the death of desktop computing are ... hyperbolic "outrage bait"

      There will always be a place for desktop machines.. PC gaming / VR, Music and video production/editing, development, 3d modeling/ graphic design, all these things are going to keep PCs on desktops for a long time yet IMHO

      Hell, even Steve Jobs never announced the death of the PC. It may be the "Post PC" era, but he never said they were going to die.

      He likened the PC to trucks - versatile mach

    • Surely Microsoft haven't changed their mind!
      https://www.tested.com/tech/pc... [tested.com]
  • by b0s0z0ku ( 752509 ) on Thursday April 04, 2019 @12:38PM (#58384628)

    How will this work when you want to actually do work and aren't connected to the Internet? Yes, there are plenty of places on Earth without 4G, 5G, or fast WiFi. (Even in a major US university's library in 2019, cell signals are blocked by the building, and WiFi is spotty at best.)

    Satan Nerdella wants to take us back to the good old days of dumb terminals. Good for Microsoft who can nickel and dime users for everything that they do, bad for the actual user.

    • I was wondering the same. Guess one of those "niche uses" will be those who use their computers from remote cabins, cruise ships, and generally places outside major cities.
      • There are many places even in major cities that have terrible Internet access. Also, many poorer people are on data plans that get throttled after the first few GB.
    • How will this work when you want to actually do work and aren't connected to the Internet? Yes, there are plenty of places on Earth without 4G, 5G, or fast WiFi. (Even in a major US university's library in 2019, cell signals are blocked by the building, and WiFi is spotty at best.)

      Satan Nerdella wants to take us back to the good old days of dumb terminals. Good for Microsoft who can nickel and dime users for everything that they do, bad for the actual user.

      You'll all live in Japanese hotel style pods in the city, so you won't be in that situation. Better for the environment too!

    • by kerashi ( 917149 ) on Thursday April 04, 2019 @02:34PM (#58385514)

      Even when you are connected to the internet, the vast majority of land area in the United States lacks the level of connectivity needed to support something like the article implies things are going to. It's already annoying enough that games are no longer shipping on discs (a 24-hour download is not uncommon here) and I bet if they tried to do away with the desktop, the torches and pitchforks would come out extremely quickly.

      Speaking of which, I have a few extra pitchforks in the barn if anyone needs to borrow one.

  • It isn't dead until Netcraft confirms it.
  • END? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by JBMcB ( 73720 ) on Thursday April 04, 2019 @12:40PM (#58384644)

    1990s - Will terminal services bring the end of the desktop?
    2000s - Will the internet bring the end of the desktop?
    2010s - Will tablets bring the end of the desktop?

    I'm guessing no.

  • A desktop is still useful for development work; i.e. serial ports are actually still necessary for interfacing with some other hardware. But that's less than 1% of the computer market. As soon as gaming consoles become upgradable and offer performance on par with desktops, the gaming market for desktops disappears entirely (it's already doomed because it's easier to cheat on a PC than a console). Most office work now can be and is done on a laptop. And a tablet with a keyboard is now indistinguishable from
    • Running a pill (tablet) crippled OS on a full-size screen is a waste of computing power.
    • And a tablet with a keyboard is now indistinguishable from a laptop.

      Really? What tablet has 8-16GB (or more) of RAM, multiple cores/cpus, 500GB of space, really supports a mouse, and supports multiple external monitors? Sure there are the Windows laptops that will double as a tablet, but they are still laptops first and foremost. Show me a pure tablet that can do all those things.

      Certainly if all you are doing is things that can be done on a Chromebook then it may be possible to live happily on a tablet. If, however, you actually need the functionality of a laptop then ther

      • A Surface or equivalent clone with the keyboard off is a tablet that has full PC functionality. I've got an HP clone and it is great having that vs a 'giant phone' style tablet, you can get real free/open source apps for the kids to play with vs freemium adware from a walled garden.
        • A Surface *is* essentially a laptop, though, with the CPU and storage mounted behind the screen vs under the keyboard. This actually makes it worse in some ways, because it tends to be top-heavy and harder to use when you're typing on something like an airline table. The Surface is also crippled as compared to most laptops, while being more expensive. Glued shut, no RAM/storage/etc upgrades allowed, and once the battery swells up (they all do), the screen will either crack or get pushed off the base.
          • Yes, there are pros and cons to all the various form factors... the fold around 2in1s save you from having to find a place to set the keyboard down when you aren't using it but then you're mushing keys on the back the whole time. My point was mostly that it is a tablet form factor that can use real PC peripherals. Unless the parent post meant 'real tablet' in terms of other factors like battery life, but there has to be a compromise somewhere if you're running multicore and wirelessly connecting to a bunch
  • You can have my desktop when you pry it from my cold dead hands.

  • by bigmacx ( 135216 ) on Thursday April 04, 2019 @12:45PM (#58384686)

    ...Dell Windows desktops and a data rack in every room filled with old Cisco gear to keep us warm.

  • by msauve ( 701917 ) on Thursday April 04, 2019 @12:46PM (#58384696)
    same as the old boss.

    Here's your 3270, er, "pad." You can do whatever you want by connecting to our mainframe, er, "cloud." We'll send you a monthly bill for cpu time, er, "AaaS."
  • by gweihir ( 88907 ) on Thursday April 04, 2019 @12:47PM (#58384710)

    And I will certainly do so.

    • Comment removed based on user account deletion
      • by fazig ( 2909523 )
        That is unlikely to begin with.
        The main problem of cloud based gaming is having issues with latencies and especially inconsistent lattencies (jitter).

        We don't have any technology that can effectively compensate for these phenomenon, which would be a requirement to enable remote gameplay with the responsiveness of a local gaming PC or gaming console.
        A lot of the games kids play these days are fast paced. And while many of them are multiplayers that work over the internet, these games still have to use a
  • I dabble in Arduino programming, and the IDE doesn't lend itself to being turned into a web app. It could be, but developers are probably not going to accept that.

    And devs are a tiny fraction of users. Right.

    So delivering apps as web apps makes sens for, what, 60-80% of users? Good deal, 'virtualize' the desktop.

    • The comparable sort of "programming for dummies" type IDE from Texas Instruments works fine over the web.

      You probably think that being a non-web-app matters for that use case because you don't understand the details of what the tools are doing under the hood.

      I use the same AVR microcontrollers as the traditional Arduinos have, but I just use regular C. So I end up knowing what the different layers of tools are. It wouldn't be that hard to put up a web interface; and for that matter, you can install the whol

  • Try clouding/chromebooking/tableting CAD and Video production and you will get laughed out of the office. I use an iPad for bedtime web browsing, but my real work gets done on with a proper keyboard and mouse.
    • Try cloudfucking image editing or data crunching/acquisition. Yeah, it can be done, but what's the stinking point with local CPU power being dirt cheap?
  • by Jaime2 ( 824950 ) on Thursday April 04, 2019 @12:49PM (#58384726)

    Windows as a service would have been widely available ten years ago if Microsoft hadn't thrown up licensing hurdles that made it pretty much impossible. This has never been an issue of whether anyone wants it or if it's possible, it has always been an issue of how Microsoft would charge for it. There's plenty of pent up demand and lots of sales will happen as soon as this becomes available. But, don't take that as a sign that everyone wants it or that the desktop market is dead.

  • Yes, I haven't read TFA just the summary but comparing Stadia to Steam is not accurate at all: Stadia is a service for game streaming in Steam you buy the games digitally but you play them locally. They're just very different things.
    OTOH since I use my PC for many things besides gaming I don't see myself using a "thin client" and running my apps on the cloud any time soon.
  • by dstyle5 ( 702493 ) on Thursday April 04, 2019 @12:50PM (#58384744)
    "Today, Google has shown with its Chrome OS that most of us can pretty much do anything we need to do on a computer with just a web browser." Uh no, Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols.

    "If you want a "real" PC, your choices are going to be Linux or macOS." I think the author drank way too much Google and Microsoft Kool-Aid before writing this article. Or incurred some form of head trauma. Say the company you work at suddenly loses their internet connection when using these "web" services, no one can do any work. Sounds like a great plan Steven.
    • Also, even ChromeOS/Android aren't really "desktop as a service." The trend has been towards allowing offline apps and offline saving.
    • And MacOS seems likely to be absorbed into iOS long before desktop Windows vanishes
  • At this point, hardware specs have well outpaced what is necessary to do most work. Even something like a phone or tablet is far superior to what would have been an impressive machine not so long ago. We're no longer counting every byte, processing, memory and storage are all plentiful even at low prices.

    You need some sort of computer to access these services all the same, and it's pretty much a given that any such hardware can do the required work locally just fine, without the need to connect anywhere or

  • Computing power is so cheap these days that it's easy to own a powerful desktop computer for not that much money.

    Why should we rent computing power from someone else when the cost to buy it is trivial? And that's not even counting latency and bandwidth issues accessing your rented computer.

  • Strangely Chrome OS has gained more desktop features such as Android/Linux (in beta) app support and a better file manager recently. A plenty of Chrome extensions run locally. Also is the internet speed and server computing power enough to serve to billions of people?
  • Download caps and ISP's pushing there own cloud will really hurt this. Also just wait for some one to use there system and get an $25K roaming bill.

  • Desktops will continue for the foreseeable future.

    I will say that PC sales have dropped considerably, but much of that is because there are few gains for gamers who play on 1080p screens, and for most of the rest, PCs have hit a performance level that is "good enough". There is little reason for most users to upgrade or replace, especially once they've swapped out hard drives for SSDs.

    Enthusiasts have always been, and will continue to be, a marginal group; every year consoles gain ground.

    VR may be the savio

  • Nope (Score:4, Insightful)

    by DarkRookie2 ( 5551422 ) on Thursday April 04, 2019 @01:06PM (#58384854)
    Desktop are still better for gaming, multi-tasking, speed, and cost.
    Laptop are close.
    Phone are far off
    And no cloud app will ever compare.
  • Scary direction (Score:4, Interesting)

    by duke_cheetah2003 ( 862933 ) on Thursday April 04, 2019 @01:06PM (#58384856) Homepage

    Sort of reminds me of Brazil, the movie, where everyone will just have a 'terminal' into some cloud.

    None of us will have GP computing devices. Everything will be locked down, you'll be charged by the minute for using anything.

    Not a good direction folks. Turn it around before you're locked in.

  • This forum is filled with niche uses. Yes, of course this won't work for CAD / video / specialized people. Most (non-slashdot) people are already weaned off computers and use phones / tablets for their personal use. If they use a computer at all it's at work where they neither know nor care how they get their desktop, how their apps or delivered, or where their data is stored.

    It makes too much operational, security, and economic sense not to.
  • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Thursday April 04, 2019 @01:12PM (#58384904)
    It's nothing new. We got away from it because it was expensive to run the RDP and web apps did most of what we needed (with the occasional terminal emulator for mainframe stuff).

    This is just Microsoft hoping to sell Windows as a "Service" so I can pay $300/yr per employee for Windows.
    • We got away from it because it was expensive to run the RDP

      Bonus points for using the correct word there. We ditched a lot of things for reasons which included the word "was". Massive bandwidth increases, cloud computing, offloading data and processing has all completely changed the cost benefit equation.

  • Comment removed (Score:5, Insightful)

    by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Thursday April 04, 2019 @01:12PM (#58384908)
    Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • Here we go again (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Dunbal ( 464142 ) * on Thursday April 04, 2019 @01:16PM (#58384942)

    Wasn't the desktop supposed to be dying 15 years ago, when tablets first started coming out?

    We have cars. We have SUV's. We have minivans. We have trucks. We have motorcycles. No single one of them is in danger of extinction, although sales vary between the groups from year to year. The desktop is also here to stay. Only a desktop can provide the raw computing power, the flexibility, the ease of modification and programming. Try to switch the graphics card on your tablet. Try to program your console.

    Now we can argue that not everyone needs or wants a desktop - I agree. But dead? Never.

  • Completely usable systems for less than $50

    Just why do I care about Microsoft ?

  • You rent yourself out as a user of various products. This program is really long over due. i.e. had people been doing this with the amount of wasted time spent in dealing with Microsoft while in current times of collecting your data for AI training, we'd all be wealthy as we'd all get return value for our contribution to advancing tech. Whats the program called? Anti-Catch Twenty-Two Entrapment Rental. "ACTTER" Or would this bankrupt tech?

    So remember to always update so you can continue to be competitive..

  • When did "friendly" become an adverb? That IS news for nerds!

  • by Only Time Will Tell ( 5213883 ) on Thursday April 04, 2019 @02:08PM (#58385350)
    Reminds me of when I was working for a company in the early 00s that wanted to phase out all desktops and move to thin clients without hard drives that served up a Citrix desktop. We got through only about 2 departments before it was determined to be an idiotic errand. Our Citrix farm had ballooned from less than 10 4-way beasts to almost 40 and counting, and users were pissed that they had slow server connections, lost work, etc. trying to work this way. We ended up pulling most of the thin clients out and going back to traditional HDD desk/laptops. The news of the desktop's death has been greatly exaggerated.
  • No way would that work for the company I am at. I guess there is a niche spot for them, but it's going to cost. You still have to have hardware on the other side to run the stuff... why not get a real computer?

  • People have been proclaiming the desktop "dead" for a couple decades now.

    It hasn't happened.

    Certain niches that were originally filled by desktop PCs have adjusted for things like laptops, tablets, phones, etc.
    Additionally you saw the rise of web-based services where you didn't NEED to keep everything on a hefty central machine.
    So you saw market correction.

    That's all we're seeing here.

    The desktop PC is going nowhere.

    The install base may continue to shrink as more targeted solutions claim niches. But deskto

  • I don't see that ever happening.

  • by Ol Olsoc ( 1175323 ) on Thursday April 04, 2019 @02:32PM (#58385504)
    Everyone will be a consumer, and no one will develop. There is no need for programmers any more.

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