Lithium Industry Buildup Is Outracing the Electric-Car Boom (bloomberg.com) 204
Lithium miners are bulking up for a booming future when electric cars go mainstream. But speed bumps loom, with prices tumbling on a burst of new production and demand growth slowing in China. From a report: Between mid-2015 and mid-2018, prices for lithium, the soft, silvery-white metal crucial for rechargeable batteries, almost tripled as the world's fleet of electric vehicles hit the 5 million mark, and the auto industry began to fret over the supply of raw materials. That sparked the opening of six lithium mines in Australia since 2017 as companies raced to gain from an evolving technology. But while the EV boom is coming, it isn't here yet. Sales growth is slowing in China, the top market, and the drive to fill the battery supply chain has cooled. The result: A 30% price plunge for lithium that's spurring concern over where the bottom may lie. "The latest EV data did reveal slowing growth, inferring that on top of excess supply, demand is now a problem," Vivienne Lloyd and other analysts at Macquarie Capital wrote in a report this month. "The key interest for investors should be who is likely to survive."
Find more uses (Score:3)
What happened to Tesla's home power battery wall? Those get cheaper due to this increased supply and more homes can get those.
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I would avoid buying a house that has this 'feature'. I don't think I can sleep at night knowing that there is what amounts to a big unstable bomb in my home.
Concern troll is concern trolling. You sleep just fine with a big unstable bomb parked in your garage that's attached to your house right now. Stop whining with your fake whining.
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Fear mongering.
People keep 20 gallon tanks of gasoline in their garage, and then drive around all day practically sitting on it with other cars passing by just a few feet away at a relative speed of 120mph.
Li Ions may not last forever, but neither do gas powered UPSs. Most I've seen get a few years before the fuel rots out all the rubber parts.
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What happened to Tesla's home power battery wall?
They exist. However, Tesla has to build them with virgin batteries, rather than using cells reclaimed from wrecks, because the DIY types are buying all the packs they can from wrecked vehicles so they can repurpose them. Just one pack (Model S, I think) breaks down into five 5.2 kWh 24V packs, which sell for $1000-1250 a piece. That's about 4.4 usable kWh, and they are so high-quality that you can almost get away without a BMS. People are building their own powerwalls, and also frequently using the packs fo
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What happened to Tesla's home power battery wall?
They still sell them [tesla.com].
Those get cheaper due to this increased supply and more homes can get those.
Ha. No. They doubled in price not too long ago and haven't come back down. Cheap lithium is nice, but processing lithium into batteries takes time and machinery and Tesla doesn't have enough of either.
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Cheap lithium is nice, but processing lithium into batteries takes time and machinery and Tesla doesn't have enough of either.
But, they will soon. Investors are going to look at the ample supply of raw materials and growing demand, then jump at the chance to invest.
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BTW, I've been looking for and pricing solar installations. Power at my house is proving to be unreliable, so I'd like a whole house UPS. Going solar with a power wall, or something similar is 3x or so more expensive than a gas-fed generator, but I'm thinking the maintenance cost combined with electric bill reductions will make up the difference.
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Not government but utilities. They need as many customers as possible, and positively hate connecting up housed that use solar or wind as the primary form of power. No ROI. Many utilities have been raising the monthly connection fee to make up for the lost revenue.
Governments are more worried about the lose of tax revenue from lowered gasoline and electricity sales. Many governments are trying to figure to tax EVs since they don't get the gas tax that is usually dedicated to road construction.
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Not government but utilities. They need as many customers as possible, and positively hate connecting up housed that use solar or wind as the primary form of power. No ROI. Many utilities have been raising the monthly connection fee to make up for the lost revenue.
That's a good thing. You should pay for exactly what service you're using. Otherwise you have no incentive to cut the connection even though you're not using it, and it still costs the utility to maintain the line.
Governments are more worried about the lose of tax revenue from lowered gasoline and electricity sales. Many governments are trying to figure to tax EVs since they don't get the gas tax that is usually dedicated to road construction.
They can just replace the gas tax with a tire tax, with increasing rates for tires with higher pressure / hardness.
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The grid is efficient. It shifts power around where it's needed. You either occasionally need power from the grid or you generate so much power that your battery is frequently full while the panels are able to supply more power, which then just goes to waste.
If you overgenerate, you can send the excess onto the grid to power other homes, reducing reliance on fossil fuels. If you undergenerate, you draw the extra back. This is an excellent, highly-efficient system.
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Very true, except governments don't want you to be off the grid, which you can do if you have a battery bank.
Where I live (Oregon) the government agency that is also the regional utility will provide you free technical support for going off-grid, if you want to.
Most people end up choosing to stay on the grid and sell their surplus generation to the utility.
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Also, Tesla's power pack tech has fire safety covered pretty well: https://electrek.co/2016/12/19... [electrek.co]
Chile is the primary source of lithium (Score:2)
Chile is a much larger supplier of lithium than Australia.
http://www.lithiummine.com/lit... [lithiummine.com]
Free market (Score:3)
Isn't the free market wonderful. When something gets expensive, somebody somewhere will find a way to make a profit from it, which will make it cheaper again.
With a little bit of a glut, maybe yard tools will move to battery power even faster. I've got a battery powered leaf blower, chain saw, and string trimmer. I just bought a battery driven lawn mower this past weekend. They are all lighter than the gas driven ones, much quieter, don't emit smelly fumes, and I don't have to pull on a damn cord to wrestle a finicky motor to run. Plus, I don't have to maintain containers of gasoline, some with varying mixes of two cycle oil. Right now, I'm dreaming of a battery powered riding mower.
Tell the Australian miners to push the price of lithium back up by supporting companies making battery powered lawn tools.
Good. More available for other purposes. (Score:2)
Lithium Industry Buildup Is Outracing the Electric-Car Boom
Good. Their price was inflated and availability restricted because the demand level from the sudden adoption and production ramp up of EV production sucked them all up - and was one of the primary limits on EVs as well.
More will be available for other uses now. The lower price point will also enable the production of more affordable EVs, EVs with larger packs for increased range, and EV versions of other vehicle types - such as delivery vans and e
continuing... (Score:2)
(Lenovo's touch pad early-posts for me again. Continuing...)
While other technologies (e.g. Vanadium Redox) might be a better match for large scale energy time-shifting, EV requirements have driven the engineering of lithium cells with very good properties:
- High efficiency (very low cycle losses)
- Extremely fast charging/discharging. (High power density.)
- Tolerance for a range of temperatrues.
- Dom't spontaneously explode or catch fire.
Though they may not be optimum, vehic
EVs price and inconvenience in charging (Score:3)
Cheap lithium might actually help the EV adoption rates, but probably not enough to make them competitive with traditional fossil fuel vehicles.
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Even if something better does come along, the inertia of Lithium will keep them going long enough to transition to another industry if they are clever, and pay attention.
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That's what I was thinking. Sign me up for a pile of cheap, high-capacity lithium batteries. There's plenty of space out back. I'll even build them an air conditioned shed to live in. I'll wire everything up solar first to car battery then house battery when full or not home then sell the remainder of the solar back to the grid.
In the case of a power outage, I'll have BEV and house battery to fall back on, and solar to charge both. That keeps the lights on and will let me charge up for a couple of days on s
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Re:technology suppression (Score:4, Informative)
Re:technology suppression (Score:4, Informative)
Also it's not that expensive.
In a more detailed report from ANL, estimates are presented varying between 113 g and 246 g of Lithium per kWh for various cathode types of batteries all with a graphite anode.
Spot prices for let's say 200g of lithium metal put the metal in 2018 at the peak of lithium prices at $0.0165 / gram * 200 g = $3.3/kwh.
Assuming a 75kwh long range Tesla Model 3 that's $247 of a Tesla's cost. Aka nothing in the grand scheme of things.
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Re:EV car "boom" feels like the 3D TV "boom". (Score:5, Insightful)
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I have a Ryobi 40V mower and snow blower. I'm on a small suburban lot, so I don't need a lot. They are both incredibly quiet and lightweight. Not really super high power, but sufficient to get the job done. The only real struggle is that the snow blower doesn't toss snow more than about 4' high, so when the banks get really tall, it struggles a bit. By the end of the winter I ended up having to be a bit creative and carve out access to the side yard through a bank, blow to a staging pile, and blow to the fi
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Re:EV car "boom" feels like the 3D TV "boom". (Score:5, Interesting)
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The E-GO stuff is the bomb! I've been replacing all my old garage appliances with them (and I only have one battery for all of them). I am so sick of changing oil, adjusting needle jets (for the older ones), changing plugs, fixing rubber primers, making sure to put fuel stabilizer in each one every winter, and trying to figure out why they don't work anyway. Oh and trying to find gasoline without ethanol...
The single high-capacity battery I have charges from empty in what seems like 15m. I can't even re
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Using batteries for tools requires learning about battery tech first, and making wise choices. You either used old battery tech because it was on sale, your story is too old to have meaning, or you didn't pay attention to how to maintain your batteries. Li-ion for example, you can't expect to leave the batteries unused all winter and still work in the spring, they start losing their charge really fast after about 3 months. And if you let them run too low, they'll appear "dead" because the protection circuit
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So much better to drive too. Instant power, smooth and quiet, but also very very easy with one pedal mode.
Re:EV car "boom" feels like the 3D TV "boom". (Score:4)
Right, who would want a car that is so simple that it rarely needs repair.
Which electric cars are not. Mechanically they may seem simple but other wise they are not. They may even be more reliable but when a EV car breaks down it is an expensive nightmare to get it fixed. It's not like you can drive your Tesla into any garage in town. [Insert personal divine being here] if you break down in bumfuck alabama where they are still trying to figure out soap and toilet paper.
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They may even be more reliable but when a EV car breaks down it is an expensive nightmare to get it fixed.
What's more, given Tesla's backlog, getting even a simple problem fixed may take weeks. This whole dealer-free thing is a nice idea, but the implementation is weak.
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Which electric cars are not.
This is quite an assertion. We've got a lot of data on car EV systems going back more than 2 decades (Prius came out in '97)
Turns out vehicle EV systems are extremely reliable, and it's not magic. It's basic physics.
ICE powerplants run crazy hot, need constant lubrication, and have gobs and gobs of moving parts. They're really a perfect storm of unreliability and need constant maintenance. (It's just been this way forever so the public is accustomed to this)
The foundations of EV are not complicated or exoti
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Turns out vehicle EV systems are extremely reliable, and it's not magic.
Can you cite a study that establishes this?
Re:EV car "boom" feels like the 3D TV "boom". (Score:5, Interesting)
The common failure points for a gas car do not exist on an EV (Coolant leaks, timing belts, alternators, ignition coils, spark plugs, ignition, oil changes, etc) which is where the big cost savings are. A Leaf is one of the cheapest cars you can drive today.
Teslas are a whole other ballgame. They suffer from many reliability and teething issues. Repair costs are high for a variety of reasons, only certain shops are certified to work on them, etc. Early model years have had many many drive unit and door handle failures, among other things. Supposedly, these problems are fixed and won't be re-occurring, and indications seem to be that they are. However, they are a young manufacturer, and they are making mistakes that the established automakers are not.
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in bumfuck alabama where they are still trying to figure out soap and toilet paper.
Turn off Hee Haw, your TV is harming your ability to think.
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Which electric cars are not. Mechanically they may seem simple but other wise they are not.
A pure electric requires less moving parts by at least two orders of magnitude; you'd know this if you know anything about the tech or even if you were into electric RC anytime after the 80's.
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less than half the operating costs of an internal combustion engined car
Wait until everyone starts using them and the price of electricity shoots through the roof. Right now the electric car market is so small the impact on overall power demand is negligible. Wait until electric car owners start causing brownouts in the dozens or scores of new years until production facilities to satisfy the demand come online - especially after making it through all the NIMBY bullshit and environmental impact stages. What - you think the power coming out of your wall is going to stay at the sa
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What - you think the power coming out of your wall is going to stay at the same price when everyone suddenly wants 5 or more times of it? Then tell me about "operating costs".
Electrical costs come down with increased demand, same as other industries. Newer power plants of all sorts cost less per unit of power produced than the old ones. They're a profitable industry that sees whatever investment is predicted to be useful.
Americans drive an average of ~25 miles per day. If 100% of Americans switched to electric cars, electrical usage would go up ~30%. Not 500%, 30%.
But it wouldn't happen all at once, that would be over years as usage went up, so it seems unlikely that there would
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Sorry for the mismatch, I said ~25 miles per day and then ~30 miles per day, but to clarify I used 30 miles per day to get the ~30% result.
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Electrical costs come down with increased demand
Why yes, that's why peak power rates are much cheaper than off-peak power rates......
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I don't know how you got to this position, but it doesn't seem like it's through logical thought or information.
This article is about BEV demand for lithium cooling off. How you go from there to BEVs taking over the world and crashing power grids instantly is a bit of a mystery. This is specifically saying that the boom is not imminent.
If the price of electricity shoots through the roof, it's still going to be cheaper than gas, and still cheaper to own an BEV than an ICE vehicle. You don't seem to understan
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Most definitely not the auto and spare parts manufacturing industries.
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Right, who would want a car that is so simple that it rarely needs repair.
Where is this coming from? Some time ago I went looking for actual data and found nothing to substantiate this.
Tesla has an abysmal reliability record. From what I remember the best of the lot based on actual reliability statistics was leaf and still there were ICE models with better records.
EVs have high current components subject to wear.
You have either magnetic bearings with high current electronics to control the motors or you have some form of brushes that make physical contact and wear. Charging co
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Right, who would want a car that is so simple that it rarely needs repair.
Where is this coming from?
Reality? Have you visited lately?
or you have some form of brushes that make physical contact and wear.
Oh, no. Sorry about that. Here in reality everyone is using brushless motors. You're literally inventing things in your head to go wrong. Come on back down to earth. Things are awesome here.
Are you unaware of how many things ICE vehicles have that wear out which BEVs don't even have? BEVs don't have radiators or water pumps, exhaust systems, plugs and wires, transmissions, crankshafts, rods, pistons, timing belts, valves, fuel injectors or carburetors, alternators, gas tank
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Right, who would want a car that is so simple that it rarely needs repair. Who needs a car that is less than half the operating costs of an internal combustion engined car. Must be a fad or something.
There is still one big problem: range, especially for road trips. Near home you become familiar with where the chargers are, and used to doing something like buying a week of groceries while you wait for a "fillup", but what happens when you want to drive from New York to Florida? It doesn't help that the chargers are still brand-specific.
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Most of my repair money has gone for A/C, suspension, and brake repairs
EVs don't need brake repairs because almost all deceleration is done with engine-regen, feeding the energy back into the battery. The factory brake pads should last the life of the car.
My EV doesn't need suspension repairs because California roads rarely have potholes (no freeze-thaw cycle), and I don't use the AC because I live in San Jose where the weather is perfect 90% of the time.
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My EV doesn't need suspension repairs because California roads rarely have potholes (no freeze-thaw cycle), and I don't use the AC because I live in San Jose where the weather is perfect 90% of the time.
Please stop lying. I hit a dozen potholes on the 101 every single day.
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Please stop lying. I hit a dozen potholes on the 101 every single day.
Those are only in the plebe lanes. The HOV/EV lanes don't have potholes.
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My last car was a hybrid. Even with a full battery replacement at 11 years in, most of my money went to ICE related repairs. The straw that broke the camel's back was a head gasket... also ICE related. If you drive enough that leasing isn't a good deal for you and you buy new and drive it till it's junk, an EV is paradise compared to ICE or hybrid.
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The AC has its own motor, thus no clutch and a better operating regime.
Is it somehow impossible to have an electric AC unit in an internal combustion powered car? I'm pretty sure that's already a trend today.
The brake wear is minimal since most of the braking is regen.
This is also somehow an insurmountable problem for an internal combustion vehicle? Seems to me that braking systems are getting very smart now. It started with things like anti-lock brakes. Then we saw intelligent throttle control and transmissions for traction control. The "jake brake" has long been a thing to reduce brake wear, using the engine to reduce brake wear.
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> Is it somehow impossible to have an electric AC unit in an internal combustion powered car? I'm pretty sure that's already a trend today.
Maybe in hybrids, where the ICE won't be running all the time and you have a sizable battery designed for continuous power draw that can power it. In non-hybrid vehicles, it makes little sense to drive it independently when you can just run it off the same belt as everything else instead of having to beef up the whole electrical system.
=Smidge=
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Why run an air conditioner unit from the DC electrical supply in a car with an ICE? Lots of reasons, including fuel efficiency.
https://iopscience.iop.org/art... [iop.org]
I admit I didn't read the entire PDF I linked to above, reading the abstract and/or conclusion should be enough to get the point. If there is an important point I missed then point it out if you like.
I've heard this a few times about why a car needs to have the A/C unit refilled with refrigerant when a common kitchen refrigerator can run for decade
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It's not just the cost of energy (which, by the way, it is much more efficient with.) It is also the cost of maintenance. Looking at the most expensive car repairs out there, few of them apply to EV's such as cylinder repairs, anything in the exhaust system, the camshaft, the transmission, the head gasket, the mass airflow sensor, etc. Meanwhile even routine maintenance is less, no need for oil changes or belt changes. Brake pads are needed less frequently due to regen braking. Even things like coolant flus
Re:EVs run on cheap fossil fuel (Score:5, Insightful)
"Cheap coal and natural gas for electricity make EV mileage costs attractive, not solar PV or wind power."
Coal was down 18% last year, because of solar and wind.
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Cheap coal and natural gas for electricity make EV mileage costs attractive, not solar PV or wind power.
Actually, EVs work well with renewables, because charging can be flexible to mesh with intermittent supplies.
My spouse has an EV. She plugs it in about 6pm and usually doesn't drive it again until 8am. So it can recharge anytime in that 14 hour window, and needs about 30 minutes to top-up. It is set to automatically charge at 2am, because that is when electricity prices are lowest, but if the electric company provided minute-by-minute pricing information, the vehicle could use that information to control
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Last time I checked, cars don't burn coal, and natural gas isn't really a big part of the vehicle market in North America, so I fail to see how they are directly relevant (other than the effect they have on the energy market overall). Coupled with the fact that the drive train of an EV is insanely simple compared to internal combustion engines, I'd say EVs have a pretty healthy future. Judging by average commute times in North America, EVs fit most use case scenarios (yes, I know, if you own a cabin on a mo
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(yes, I know, if you own a cabin on a mountain top in Montana, you'll probably not be using an EV).
If you also go on long road trips, or have a long daily commute to a city.
If you're actually a hermit who only drives to town for supplies, or to the airport if you're going on a trip, then an EV would work fine.
Remoteness isn't a problematic use case, because even in Montana you're still in driving range to the store. The problem is only for trips that involve all day driving.
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Did you do the math? I'm guessing that you haven't.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/07/15/new-solar-battery-price-crushes-fossil-fuels-buries-nuclear-until-you-do-the-math/
If electric cars are the solution then we need to consider the new problem this creates, new electric demand. What is the lowest CO2 electricity today? It's nuclear power. If we are just charging up these electric cars with electricity from coal and natural gas then we might be lowering the CO2 from our commutes but nuclear power elim
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Even if all the power in your area is still coal, there is still a big advantage in having a fuel-agnostic car. You will be ready qwhen new sources come along.
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Personally, I would have bought mine without the subsidies. But damned if I'm going to leave perfectly good money on the table. :-)
Re:EV car "boom" feels like the 3D TV "boom". (Score:5, Insightful)
How many families have a second car that is essentially only used for one of them to commute to work and run grocery errands. The other vehicle is usually a giant SUV. An EV with a range of ~250-300 miles is absolutely a candidate to replace the commuter vehicle. I know when my commuter is ready to be replaced a Nissan Leaf will be on the list along with whatever comes along in the next couple of years. EV Mini anyone?
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you live in a place where you NEED your car to go anywhere, and sometimes that needs extends hundreds and hundreds of miles.
First, I agree that, as they exist now, electric cars aren't necessarily for everyone. For example, there was a time in my life where I drove a 60 mile commute. So after 5 days a week, I drove 300 miles. I would also go visit my sweetheart on the weekends, where I would drive 300 miles one-way.
Nowadays, if I had an electric car, I could save money with that commute. But I'd be kind of hosed visiting my sweetheart. Of course, I'd have to ask myself the question as to whether a brief stop on the way was
Re:EV car "boom" feels like the 3D TV "boom". (Score:5, Interesting)
ubiquity of gas stations
In the UK, the number of petrol (gas) stations is slowly declining over the last 20 years or so. It is wrong to think that gas stations are ubiquitous, they are in fact going extinct. In particular, rural areas are losing their petrol stations.
There are multiple causes, but the main one is that it is hard to make a profit on selling petrol and demand is falling due to better efficient vehicles despite more vehicles being on the roads. EV adoption is going to accelerate the decline in the number of gas stations. Both Shell and BP are deploying EV rapid chargers in the UK.
I have seen Shell advertising EV charging on TV. Also EDF ( French electricity supplier) created a TV advert selling home EV chargers by showing various EVs such as Teslas, actually it looked like a Tesla advert. In addition, Nissan are heavily marketing their Leaf on TV.
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Sorry--I'm biased towards America. Plenty of gas stations around here... :^D
But it does bring up an interesting point. Gas stations here in the US are already becoming "convenience stores" that sell gasoline because, frankly, with competition it's tough to make money selling gasoline. Buying gasoline is what gets the customers in the door, where they will hopefully decide they want a soda or a snack or something else. The days where the gas station is also a repair shop or something are disappearing fas
Re:EV car "boom" feels like the 3D TV "boom". (Score:5, Informative)
taking two hours to recharge halfway through the trip doesn't make sense.
My EV can charge from 0 to 80% (200 out of 240 miles) in 20 minutes.
sometimes that needs extends hundreds and hundreds of miles.
If you have a frequent need to drive several hundred miles, and don't have access to a 2nd car, then DON'T BUY AN EV. They are not for everyone. But mine works well. My family has a second car (a minivan) that we use for long trips a few times a year. But 99% of the time, the EV works well.
You should buy your car for the 99%, not the 1% like people who buy a 4WD SUV because they might go skiing once every five years.
Re:EV car "boom" feels like the 3D TV "boom". (Score:5, Interesting)
We use the heat and the AC as much as we need. We're very comfortable in the car--the AC is far stronger than gas cars, and the electric heat is virtually instant (compared to a gas car that has to heat up first). The Leaf is toasty warm (or cool) by the time we've gone half a mile. As a backup car, an EV is perfectly fine. In fact, it's better than fine--it's far superior to a gas car, which isn't nearly as comfortable on short trips at all.
The heat KILLS the range, but the AC doesn't affect the range that much. At 95 degrees, I lose around 10% of the range with the AC on. That means I can "only" go 54 miles instead of 60.
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"[bullshit] ... this is Texas!" It is a standard pattern of speech that they use, it actually means they chose not to answer your question.
AC usage is not low in Texas. Wearing an oversize belt buckle doesn't actually cool you off, or even reduce your desire for creature comfort, but it certainly causes you to say, "Hurr Durr Machoman!" more often.
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The EV car "boom" is starting to feel a lot like the 3D TV "boom" of a few years ago. Basically it seems like mostly media hype and a small number of rich folk who buy the products as a novelty or a toy.
Plenty of things we use today started out as toys and novelties for the wealthy. Refrigerators, personal computers, cell phones, and indoor plumbing are a few examples.
That doesn't mean that electric cars won't end up being a fad. It only means that this early adoption of the technology by the wealthy is not evidence of this being a fad.
Neither technologies really benefit average folk in any meaningful way, and may actually be worse than just the traditional equivalent in practice.
I agree that the shortcomings of electric vehicles is not a trivial problem. Advancement in battery technology cannot resolve this problem because of the inherent shortco
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What are these unfixable shortcomings in battery tech ?
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What are these unfixable shortcomings in battery tech ?
Energy density and recharge time.
Hydrocarbon fuels have 100 times the energy density of lithium-ion batteries.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
I won't argue that an electric motor has a far higher efficiency than an ICE. I won't argue that with further advancement in battery tech we could squeeze a bit more out of battery energy density. That might close that gap to be more like a 10 times difference. That still won't allow for electric transoceanic transportation by planes or ships, or electric transcon
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I won't argue that with further advancement in battery tech we could squeeze a bit more out of battery energy density
How do you know that future tech will only "squeeze a bit more out" ? Is there a particular theoretical limit that we are getting close to ?
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How do you know that future tech will only "squeeze a bit more out" ? Is there a particular theoretical limit that we are getting close to ?
Yes.
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Hydrogen fuel cell cars also have a lithium-ion battery because the fuel cell is a range extender which charges the small battery. In effect, a hydrogen fuel cell car is a hybrid EV. The battery is needed to balance power demands between the fuel cell and the electric motor(s).
The equation for whether hydrogen fuel cell cars will win the EV market over the pure battery EV (BEV) cars depends on whether the room taken up by the hydrogen fuel cell and tank can be replaced by an "equivalent" battery. Battery im
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Plenty of things we use today started out as toys and novelties for the wealthy. Refrigerators, personal computers, cell phones, and indoor plumbing are a few examples.
Technical progress. Less labor to produce the same result by finding a more-efficient way to produce a good or service.
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Plenty of things we use today started out as toys and novelties for the wealthy. Refrigerators...
Not many people would expect hiring workers to mix salt water and ice and fan it at King Louis would eventually morph into something the size of the modern refrigeration industry.
It requires a certain amount of outside-the-jar thinking.
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If they can get MicroLED prices down to where LED-backlit LCD TVs are now, which shouldn't be too horribly hard, then they should have no trouble doing it all again. MicroLED has the potential to actually deliver on the stuff OLED promised, but hasn't because of its poor lifespan and high costs to produce large panels. MicroLED can be constructed in pieces and then assembled seamlessly, which differentiates it from every other display technology so far.
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As you learned in the other thread, the micro LED applications that imply getting rid of the TFT are only up to about 128x128, same as for OLED. Beyond that, you still have the TFT, because wires.
Repeating a misunderstanding about the changes the technology brings will not actually bring the changes you're dreaming of.
micro LED isn't going to change how large screens are made. It is going to change the available quality of small screens so that people can watch 4k video on their smart watch. And HUD glasses
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Go ahead and drive the Ford Explorer, it won't matter. If the mainstream users convert over to EV that will suffice for any carbon emissions by personal transportation. Even a million niche users like you won't matter for carbon.
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Geeze, man, where are you living, and what are you doing, that this describes your typical use profile? And if this is not your typical use profile, then perhaps yo
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Also it's only -40C maybe two weeks out of the year but I don't want to have to hide inside or be uncomfor
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Surely you should be buying a bus, in case you need to transport 40 kids to a sporting event.
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> Guess what it will be??
Late 2020? Rivian is making pretty much exactly what you're asking for. Better, in some respects... They're offering two vehicles: an SUV and a short-bed pickup.
Ford Explorer:
Tow Capacity: "5,000 lbs max"
Range: 353 to 410 miles (based on 18.6 gallon tank)
4WD Optional
Interior volume: ~81 cu.ft. (varies with options)
Cargo capacity: N/A
Engine: 290 HP, 310 ft-lbs
Wheel base: 112.8 x 67 in
MSRP: ~$40-55K options are hard to nail down, but you're looking at a *minimum* $45K for the tow p
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ICE only wins on price, for now.
Actually: Price, range, and refuelng time.
Price reduction on lithium cells also drives increased range, at least per-charge. Recent cell technology is boosting charge rate hysterically, so the availability of equivalently hysterically high-power charging stations is the main limit on refuelling time.
IMHO, though, it would be nice to have a small engine/generator - suitable for providing cruising-speed level power from fuel (and thus also allowing a short sit-charge to brin