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Transportation The Almighty Buck

The Case For Portland-To-Vancouver High-Speed Rail (citylab.com) 153

At the Cascadia Rail Summit outside Seattle, a fledgling scheme to bring high-speed rail from Portland to Vancouver found an enthusiastic reception. Gregory Scruggs writes via CityLab: Only 175 miles separate Portland from Seattle. Then it's another 140 miles north to Vancouver, British Columbia. The three Pacific Northwest cities, which together form the Cascadia megaregion, are currently served by Amtrak service that tops out at 79 mph, shares track with BNSF freight trains, and runs infrequently -- just twice daily round-trip between Seattle and Vancouver. If you want to make the full 315-mile run from Portland to Vancouver on rails, it's going to take you at least 8-and-a-half hours. By bus or car, expect the journey to eat up 5 or 6 hours, with metro-area traffic an unpredictable wild card that regularly balloons travel times.

But Roger Millar, Washington State's secretary of transportation, sees a better way: a trans-national, ultra-high-speed rail line that can hit 250 mph and put the three booming cities within super-commuting range. Such a system -- common in Europe and Asia but still alien to North America -- might cost $50 billion or so. That sounds like a lot, but it could be a bargain compared to adding a lane to I-5, the current north-south corridor linking the megaregion. "[For] $108 billion we've got another lane of pavement in each direction, and it still takes you all day to get from Portland to Vancouver," Millar said earlier this month of a hypothetical lane-widening project. "Half of that invested in ultra-high speed rail and it's two hours. That's game-changing stuff."

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The Case For Portland-To-Vancouver High-Speed Rail

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  • Hyperloop (Score:4, Funny)

    by 110010001000 ( 697113 ) on Thursday December 05, 2019 @09:12PM (#59489850) Homepage Journal

    Just get Musk involved and the cost will drop a lot. I'll bet he can do it for $5 billion (payment up front).

    • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

      Except nobody in the Eastern half of the state wants to help pay for it.

      They're pretty tired of the west-siders.
      • Except nobody in the Eastern half of the state wants to help pay for it.

        But now that Vancouver is mostly Chinese, getting the Canadian segment built might be easier than you think. This would create political momentum for hooking up Seattle and Portland.

    • Well, sir, there's nothing on earth
      Like a genuine, bona fide
      Electrified, six-car monorail
      What'd I say?
      Monorail
      What's it called?
      Monorail
      That's right!

      Monorail...

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]

  • Customs Pre-Clearance?

    • by Malc ( 1751 )

      Yep, this is the big one. Taking the train from London to Germany or south of France is fairly easy and faster than flying in many cases, but coming back adds 90 minutes to the journey because you have to get off the train and go through immigration in Brussels or Paris. Pre-clearance is easy if you only have a few stops either side of the border, but it doesn't really scale if you want customs and immigration at every boarding point. And you have to keep this system separate for the people who want to us

  • Why? (Score:5, Funny)

    by Some Guy I Dont Know ( 6200212 ) on Thursday December 05, 2019 @09:24PM (#59489888)

    Vancouver is just across the river; why would you need high-speed rail to go a few hundred feet? /s

    • Re:Why? (Score:4, Funny)

      by ISoldat53 ( 977164 ) on Thursday December 05, 2019 @09:54PM (#59489974)
      It still seems to take 3-6 hours to make the trip.
    • by j-beda ( 85386 )

      Yeah, and the story seems to imply that a trip from Vancouver to Portland would go through Seattle! That's wack!

      Someone needs to do a bit more planning for this rail line!

      • They will hire California high-speed rail consultants to build a segment from nowhere to nowhere in an area already served by an existing rail service.
        • I believe even the initial segment will continue (as non-HSR) into San Francisco along Caltrain's route. What CalHSR *urgently* needs to do is figure out a way to get Bakersfield connected to existing tracks into LA, so the trains can run ~79-110mpb from SF to somewhere around Modesto, run 180-225 mph to Bakersfield & continue to the existing LA tracks, then limp into LA at 60-79mph. That would be slower than HSR all the way, but still a HUGE improvement over present-day Amtrak (and Amtrak *itself* coul

          • This is exactly what they did in Europe too. They designed the trains so they could run on commuter rail lines as well. Then they started laying new segments of track, shaving 20-30 minutes off a particular route at a time until it's entirely high speed.

            • Now that is interesting. This is asked because I really want to know. Do you have any links for this. They are talking, which will never happen of course. Of running High speed rail between Chicago and Cleveland. Again, I don't see it happening. But your comment about using existing rail lines till they can be completely replaced seems a real cost savings way to do this.
              • As I understand it, the main problem with Bakersfield-LA is that all the cheap/easy routes (via Palmdale & Victorville) involve using the Tehachapi Pass, which UP *vehemently* opposes because it's a busy freight segment with a chokepoint that can't be easily expanded.

                Right now, UP runs one-way convoys of mile-long freight trains (coordinated along the tracks leading up to it with computer modeling so they're already up to speed & arrive at the mainline at *precisely* the right instant to merge in be

    • by MAXOMENOS ( 9802 )
      Vancouver BC. BC.
    • by dryeo ( 100693 )

      It's part of the Hudson's Bay Company's plan to take back Fort Vancouver in the continuing war with the Northwest Trading Company. The good old days when corporations competed by shooting at each other and were the government.

    • Hell, people in Vancouver WA have been rejecting a plan to expand Portlands MAX line into their city for years. So I don't know what they're going to do if this stupid high speed rail scam gets traction.
  • Being from the Portland area, when you hear Portland to Vancouver you think Vancouver, WA which is adjacent to Portland, though at times can still take 2 hours to get to depending on traffic.

    The curse for Vancouver, WA when traveling is if you just say Vancouver people will think Vancouver, BC, and if you say Washington then most people think Washington, DC. Oh, well.

    In Taiwan the High Speed Rail (HSR) takes you from Kaohsiung to Taipei, roughly the same distance as Seattle to Portland, in about an hour and a half. This would be most welcomed. Especially if it makes a stop at Sea-Tac and the Portland Trimet Max hooks up to the station this would open up much easier air travel, much like the Taiwan HSR connects up to TPE.

    • AFAIK it's not so much about easier air travel, unless replacing major air transfer route, which only seems case if extended to Eugene in Oregon.
      Sea-Tac colocation could make sense parallel with 2nd station for Northern Seattle/Everett for convenient access from both ends of urbal sprawl.
      It mostly seems about convenience of mass transit "feeders" which doesn't per se prioritize airport colocation, other locations possibly better there.

    • The curse for Vancouver, WA when traveling is if you just say Vancouver people will think Vancouver, BC, and if you say Washington then most people think Washington, DC.

      So, you just say "Vancouver, Washington, DC." No more confusions, then.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Friday December 06, 2019 @04:35AM (#59490528) Homepage Journal

      You need to look at not just the high speed trains in other countries, you need to look at the other infrastructure and how they fund them.

      Take the Shinkansen (bullet train) network in Japan. It's extensive, the trains run every 15 minutes and the punctuality is incredible. It's an expensive service to run too, they do nightly inspections of the track, and the trains are stripped down and inspected every 3 days.

      So how is it affordable? Well the train companies also own the stations, and the stations are huge shopping malls that are destinations in of themselves. They also tie up with many attractions and local businesses to offer combined tickets, so for example if you want a skiing holiday you buy a package that includes the train rather than a flight.

      When you arrive at your destination, usually right in the middle of town, there are other trains and busses to get you to where you need to go. It's a fully integrated system.

    • TIL There's a Vancouver in WA, proving once again that people are too stupid to make things easy for themselves.

      • by jimbo ( 1370 )

        Yes it was interesting during the winter olympics in BC as a number of travelers ended up in WA.

  • by ugen ( 93902 ) on Thursday December 05, 2019 @09:48PM (#59489956)

    This is America. There will never be a good public transportation option here. Public transportation requires public investment, and there is above a critical mass of "taxes are bad" voters who will not let this happen. Unless the money goes to support the military spending, of course. May be that's the solution - have the military build it out of their budget :)

    • It's not just that "taxes are bad" folks exist. It's that the US is not capable of building anything big anymore. Not in infrastructure, not in transportation, basically nowhere. Reasons are multitude: inept politicians, endless lawsuits, weak federal government (dominated by moocher states), etc.
      • I'd say corrupt politicians are a bigger problem than inept ones. Once upon a time it was more "how do I profit from making the country better" and now it's more "how do I shit on anyone I don't agree with, and fuck the country".

      • by Miamicanes ( 730264 ) on Thursday December 05, 2019 @11:52PM (#59490166)

        One big difference between the US & countries like France is that in other countries, they'll build HSR *simultaneously* with a freeway reconstruction (or new-construction). In the US, we'd do stupid things like tear up a road for 5 years, rebuild it completely, then partially tear it up *again* to build HSR next to it.

        If you're *already* widening a retained-earth foundation to 150 feet, making it 180-200 feet wide instead (assuming you have 200 feet of ROW anyway) costs very little extra... but would cost basically double the amount to rebuild the old one to 150 feet if you built it to 150 for the road, then went back 5 years later and had to add another 30-50 feet for HSR.

        Ditto for bridges across the ROW... if you rebuild a freeway & all the bridges over it, it costs ${n}. If you add an extra 30-50 foot span over HSR at the same time, it might cost 10-20% more... but if you have to go back in 5 years and add that extra span LATER, that 30-50' span will cost as much as the whole original multi-span bridge did.

        For the most part, roughly half of TGV's construction was timed & planned years in advance to coincide with freeway reconstructions France knew it was going to have to do *anyway*, which kept the costs down because most of TGV ended up being a marginal cost on top of an expensive road project that had to happen regardless.

        California HSR is an example of what happens when you build first-rate HSR as a totally standalone project instead of combining it with a road project you were going to do anyway... it ends up costing a fortune.

        Florida illustrates the opposite extreme. When FDOT rebuilt I-4 between Tampa and Orlando 20 years ago, it made a point of keeping the median mostly clear for future HSR. It increased the cost, but only by about 10%. Now, Virgin Trains is going to lease the corridor and build HSR in it. It still has to lay track & build stations, but the potentially deal-killingly-expensive part (a corridor suitable for HSR with minimal reconstruction) is done & ready for them.

        The smart thing for Oregon, Washington, and BC to do would be to lay out the route *now* along a highway that will be mostly rebuilt within 25 years, do the reconstructions in a way that leaves the future HSR corridor "rail-ready", and launch HSR (as regional commuter rail) along fragments of it as they become available, even if it'll be another 15-25 years before end to end service can begin. If possible, try to make use of existing nearby railroads for a few trains per day to 'connect the dots' around the as-yet-unbuilt future HSR segments in the meantime (losing much of the time advantage, but mitigating it through one-seat transfer-free convenience).

        Using France/TGV as an example again, long before TGV ran all the way to the Mediterranean, they extended it during peak seasons by hitching up diesel engines & towing them the first and/or last 50-200km as a premium first-class service so they could run a few mostly-HSR trains per week between Paris & some vacation hotspot whose future TGV track was still under construction (or hadn't yet started construction), increasing sales & profits by offering single-seat transfer-free convenience at super-premium prices.

        • by Cyberax ( 705495 )
          Washington-to-Vancouver corridor is actually fairly easy. There's plenty of space for it in most areas, with only Seattle and approaches to Portland being complicated expensive parts. Almost everywhere else it's reasonably clear.
        • You appear to be operating under the mistaken impression that California maintains its roads.
        • by jezwel ( 2451108 )

          The smart thing for Oregon, Washington, and BC to do would be to lay out the route *now* along a highway that will be mostly rebuilt within 25 years, do the reconstructions in a way that leaves the future HSR corridor "rail-ready"

          Does this mean it will almost certainly not be done this way? Seems logical to me.

        • One big difference between the US & countries like France is that in other countries, they'll build HSR *simultaneously* with a freeway reconstruction (or new-construction). In the US, we'd do stupid things like tear up a road for 5 years, rebuild it completely, then partially tear it up *again* to build HSR next to it.

          Caltrans, the highway construction agency, routinely buys land for new roads fifteen years ahead of need. Even if a road never gets built, the agency can still resell the acquired land at a profit. If the road does get built, the preplanning has saved a bundle on acquisition costs.

          Because the HSR line was not a part of this planning system, it faced having to buy land at 'walkup' high prices wherever it ran.

        • by cusco ( 717999 )

          **sigh**

          You're talking about logic and planning more than one election cycle in the future, which unfortunately is no longer done in the US. When they rebuilt the SR520 floating bridge across Lake Washington between Bellevue and Seattle the original plan was to include an extra lane on each side for future light rail. Just as the project was getting under way conservative politicians in Olympia declared that 10% needed to be shaved off the projected cost of the bridge, and the only way to do that was to g

    • If the project were worth the investment and there were adequate provisions to keep owners from being screwed over by the state, it would be privately funded. No need to steal from people who wouldn't benefit from the project. That it isn't being done is a great indication that it isn't worth while.
      • The project needs to compete with public-funded freeways. You expect a private enterprise to compete with "free". This is exactly the reason why US passenger rail system is non-existent. While passenger trains are often faster and more economical than cars/buses, the latter is funded by the public, while the former is not, creating an artificial asymmetry of financial incentives.
        • Trains don't have to be cheaper or faster if they make it up by being nicer & more convenient.

          The nice thing about trains is that the marginal cost of running a train with 10 cars that are 50% full isn't much higher than the cost of running it with 5 cars that are oversold, require advance reservations, have draconian change policies, and might even bump passengers. So you can AFFORD to accommodate casual walk-on passengers & relax the urgency of being at the station at a specific time Or Else. You

        • So you're saying public transit is holding us back from a better transit system.
        • Mindset might well have a lot to do with this. When I heard you're looking at 5-6 hours of driving, versus 8.5 on the train, I thought "oh cool - you could have a day in the "office" on the train versus driving 6 hours and doing nothing of any use, and arriving tired". Of course, it depends if they have half-decent wifi on the train and if it's comfortable enough that you can sit with your laptop out, use a power socket or whatever else. You're going to need food and a toilet that isn't from the Trainspotti

      • by dryeo ( 100693 )

        You have to steal the land to give the private businesses to build their privately funded railway, then the government has to maintain an army to keep the stolen land stolen, then the government has to pay the private businesses to build the private railway, or at least guarantee some contracts. Then there is the importing of cheap disposable labour.

    • The DC bureaucrats did launch the Acela Express train in the NE corridor, but they built it primarily for themselves so they could reach their families and homes in weekends with less trouble.

    • by LynnwoodRooster ( 966895 ) on Friday December 06, 2019 @12:13AM (#59490212) Journal
      Well, here in California we committed $10 billion for high speed rail, ended up spending twice that, will have 1/3rd of the line in the most remote/least-populous section of the line, and cancelled the rest since the price ballooned to close to $100 billion - and there STILL wasn't a plan on how to actually run the line to Los Angeles. It's not about investment, it's about Government agencies not having a clue about how to accomplish what they promise, and looking at taxpayers as a never-ending source of funds for them to play with.
      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by Brett Buck ( 811747 )

        It was never intended to result in a functioning way to travel - it was intended as a way to create make-work jobs with federal subsidies. That's why it's still in work between two nowhere destinations that can easily be reached in similar time in a car, once you consider that you have to wait for a departure (which will be infrequent even if the system ever actually gets finished). That it is impractical and makes no sense to continue (or to have started at all) is entirely beside the point.

      • Comment removed based on user account deletion
        • by cusco ( 717999 )

          Prohibiting lawyers from becoming politicians would go a long way towards fixing that.

      • Exactly, LynnwoodRooster, this is what they are driving for with this project --- all our traffic engineering derives from the financial elites/rulers of Wa. State/Seattle: namely the Community Development Round Table, which always pushes against intelligent transportation design, only opting for the mega-big buck projects which will solely profit them!
    • I'm far from a "Taxes are Bad" but HSR taxes are bad.

      Ticket prices for this trip would probably be around $150 or more each way if they are similar to ticket prices in Japan.

      So we're going to spend $50 Billion to replace air travel with something that's slightly faster than air travel.... why? I5 isn't busy for 99% of the route. It's congested at Marysville, Downtown Seattle, Tacoma and JBLM. Tacoma is almost done adding lanes, JBLM is getting its own traffic mitigation and Marysville is 2 lanes.

      We do

      • by hawguy ( 1600213 )

        I'm far from a "Taxes are Bad" but HSR taxes are bad.

        Ticket prices for this trip would probably be around $150 or more each way if they are similar to ticket prices in Japan.

        So we're going to spend $50 Billion to replace air travel with something that's slightly faster than air travel.... why?

        It's only "slightly faster", if you exclude the time to travel to the airport go through security and pick up your luggage on the other end. If you can literally walk to the station from your downtown office/apartment and walk off to your destination on the other end, that saves you at least 90 minutes. A commercial flight from Portland to Vancouver takes 75 minutes. It'll take you 30 minutes to drive to the airport from downtown in traffic. If you're feeling lucky, you can get there only 30 minutes before

      • HSR doesn't make sense in the US. We aren't nearly dense enough...

        That is true in general and nationwide. But in selected high-density corridors, the places where you can't physically add enough freeway lanes to unsludge the traffic, HSR can make sense. Just don't let the project get all Californicated up.

    • by dbialac ( 320955 )

      It's not going to happen because trains don't work in much of the US. Trains work in Europe because the cities there are walkable. I've personally walked across multiple medium sized cities over there. Most cities here aren't walkable; they're far too spread out. Once you get off a train, you need a car to get around. This is also why buses work so poorly here. People in Europe don't have large, sprawling lawns. In fact, frequently, the sidewalk is directly at their front door and there is no yard at all. T

  • high speed rail smoke and mirrors project for the nations tax payers to fund. What did CA get for their 50 billion spent on their high speed rail 1-2 miles?

    Just my 2 cents ;)
    • by t0qer ( 230538 )

      I'm in California and have been paying attention to the boondoggle known as HSR. Here's the big difference between Oregon/Washington and California. Both those states have less to work with, yet seem to get more done. Their homeless are housed, the roads are well paved, there's a symbiotic relationship between logging and forestry, housing prices are decent.

      Not sure how the exact politics of these states compare, but having done a drive to Astoria Oregon from San Jose California, it seems like Oregon has

  • But will suck up tax dollars for decades. Pork for everyone! I wonder how much prime right-of-way Roger Millar owns.

  • Can't be environmentally unfriendly, even in the rainy northwest-southwest.
  • To ride a damn train. I like my car.

  • first in Vancouver then worry about cross country trains.

  • What is this? A price for the military?

    I would love to see the total man-hours involved in this, including creation of the materials, and how much is done in cheaper countries.
    They we could calculate the average salary, and compare it to what we get for doing that kind of work, so we can see how much is legitimate, and how much is profit.

  • I never really understood the push for high-speed (200 kph / 120 mph) rail in North America. Sure, those speeds would be amazing, but they significantly increase the challenge and pretty much guarantee these systems will never get built. Such systems require 100% grade separated, dedicated lines with huge turning radii. Perfect becomes the enemy of good.

    I really think we should be shooting for high-er speed / fast rail. With average speeds in the 150 kph / 95 mph range. You could still have grade crossings

  • 3 Counties in Washington pushed a light rail project (ST3) to extend the rail system that goes from Olympia, SeaTac to Seattle up north to Everett. The cost - $54B... that BILLION dollars for (c) 60 mile extension of the rail system.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
    That's a tad under a billion per mile for "LIGHT" rail, low speed.. Paid for by doubling car tabs and staggering property tax increases. The proponents lied about the true cost increases to push the measure through, then when it became obv
  • I wonder if, for 130bn, they could get an extra lane each way on I5 with a pair of rail tunnels buried under it.
  • They're trying to bring about the hipster singularity!

  • Imagining a new rail line is easy, convincing people at a "rail summit" that if should be built is also easy, but you know what's hard? Coming up with the money LOCALLY (since it provides no value to anyone outside the Portland-Seattle-Vancouver corridor, good luck getting federal money), securing the needed right-of way to lay the track, then convincing people to take the train AND pay a fare that helps recoup investment.

    How much will people really pay to turn a six hour trip into a 3 hour trip? And don't

  • Who wants to travel between Portland, Oregon and Vancouver, BC? If you are going to stop at every waypoint: Centralia, Olympia, Tacoma, Sea-tac, Seattle, Everett, Mt Vernon, Bellingham, there goes your high speed. By the time you get up to speed, if you ever do, it's time to slow down.

  • We have a huge HSR boondoggle. NIMBYs prevent any construction within the SF Bay Area and LA so the planners decided to build the line first around Fresno where the population density is less and the land cheaper, hoping I suppose, to gain enough traction in the project to eventually finish the line from SF to LA. And they can't even do that. There are a at least 3 very large half built HSR bridges around Fresno. I drive by there 2-3 times a year and I have yet to actually see anyone working on the brid

  • This would only make sense if we had gone with an intercity monorail system in Seattle, but after five votes, on the fifth vote the financial elites, represented by the Community Development Round Table, were victorious, so thusly we had the incredibly badly engineered and planned Sound Transit shoved down our collective throats as it is a mega-big cost item, just as this rail package would be. GM did a fantastic study in the 1950s where they deduced that the best systems were monorail systems within the c

If all the world's economists were laid end to end, we wouldn't reach a conclusion. -- William Baumol

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