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Google Advertising Businesses The Almighty Buck

The Mysterious Disappearance of Google's Click Metric (zdnet.com) 28

In Google's recent end-of-the-year 2019 financial report, the company for the first time disclosed the revenues for YouTube and its Google Cloud unit. However, as Tom Foremski writes via ZDNet, "Google removed key metrics that have been included for more than 15 years: How much money it makes per click (Cost-per-Click (CPC)) and the growth of paid clicks." From the report: These monetization metrics are typically found on the second page of every quarterly earnings release from Google -- which underscores their importance in a 10-page document. Yet they are missing from the latest Google 2019 Q4 report with no explanation. Clicks are at the heart of Google's business, so why are these metrics no longer viable? And why hasn't this change been noticed widely? Why didn't the Wall Street analysts ask about these missing numbers in the financial call the same day as the report was released? What is Google hiding?

Google has a rapidly deflating advertising product, sometimes 29% less revenue per click, every quarter, year-on-year, year after year. Take a look at this chart: As long as Google can keep growing the blue line -- growth of paid clicks faster than the red line its ad click deflation -- then it is golden. Every three months Google has to find faster ways of expanding the total number of paid clicks by as much as 66%. How is this a sustainable business model? There is an upper limit to how much more expansion in paid links can be found especially with the shift to mobile platforms and the constraints of the display. And what does this say about the effectiveness of Google's ads? They aren't very good and their value is declining at an astounding and unstoppable pace.

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The Mysterious Disappearance of Google's Click Metric

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  • by Revek ( 133289 ) on Wednesday February 05, 2020 @08:59PM (#59695936)

    As far as those who control the artist are concerned. In order to squeeze more from them they have to first take away their ability to gauge their worth.

    • Such applies to any exchange. For a free market to reach true equilibrium and maximize efficiency it requires all participants to be maximally informed. Information is itself a commodity and control of information and its application within limits as intellectual property yields extraordinary advantage to those who hold it.

      Advertising is a type of control of information, which includes both true and false information. The control of false information and misdirection is more important than true information

    • One need not "take" the ability if the target/customer lacked it to begin with. The historic merchant's primary source of profit did not come from efficient transportation of materials across networks from points of high supply to those of high demand. In addition the merchant would in some cases be the sole supplier in possession of information regarding the source. With the customer having no knowledge of the true cost of the source supply + transportation, the price paid for the commodity often far outst
  • Easy - click fraud can infinitely scale.
  • by timeOday ( 582209 ) on Wednesday February 05, 2020 @10:31PM (#59696232)
    So let's imagine there's a certain total budget for advertising that is somewhat inflexible, beyond which there is diminishing returns. Now let's assume one company almost owns the whole market (except for what happens on the facebook site). It's google's pie. It sounds like they're slicing it into more, thinner slices. That doesn't mean the pie is shrinking, or that somebody is taking it from them. It may mean their internal incentive structure is creating internal competition, or demanding endless growth in the number of ads sold.
    • by AHuxley ( 892839 )
      The ad brand browser has full encryption and powerful privacy so all other ads dont get a look in.
      The browser use is now the flash ad, the banner ad.
    • I think the trajectory is shifting from Google profit harmoniously growing to stagnancy, which means everybody else will tend to feel the negative effects of monopoly defending their monopoly... If easy growth doesn't come naturally, they will try to force profit growth wherever they can... If they don't, financial markets will demand they cash out if they are a mature monopoly, leaving little scope for alternative. Of course they are simultaneously passing (or passed) the threshold of regulatory vulnerabil

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      I wonder if privacy enhancements are taking their toll as well.

      A lot of ads rely on "ping back" systems to record clicks. A lot of privacy enhancing browser tech blocks them. Even Google thinks they are a bad idea and is creating a new semi-anonymous API for advertisers to use (Apple is creating a nearly identical one for Safari).

  • by branmac ( 6342816 ) on Thursday February 06, 2020 @06:38AM (#59697020)
    this is the best ting i've read lately... https://thecorrespondent.com/1... [thecorrespondent.com]
    • With new media comes new claims, and more BS in the end. What matters to an advertiser is if they are reaching their intended audience or not. Invasive (pop-up, scroll thruough, and in-frame as examples) styles are beginning to get filtered out because their very nature annoys rather than entertains, creates brand awareness, differentiates, or informs. This has grown because of the deflationary nature of ad revenue, which has caused the upward growth of the use of ad-blocking programs in recent years. T
    • by epine ( 68316 )

      That's a great read, and absolutely hilarious in places.

      But from long experience, hardly any story of human incompetence on a mass scale at the level of corner offices in glass towers are never quite this simple in the long run.

      Huge grain of truth here, but this narrative is too glib by half. Don't fall for it all the way.

      Part of the problem with online advertising is that this is effectively an arms race between predator and prey. Consumers constantly adapt to the onslaught, the onslaught constantly adapts

  • my boss stopped using Google advertising because he says it doesn't work. Problem is you tell them what your ad budget is and magically the whole budget gets spent every month. We are in a very niche software industry. Our suspicion: you just get accidental clicks because google starts plastering your ad on unrelated searches and you get people that wouldn't be interested in your product anyways so that they can get all the money you "promised" them.

"The vast majority of successful major crimes against property are perpetrated by individuals abusing positions of trust." -- Lawrence Dalzell

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