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PC Shipments Expected To Drop This Year Because of Coronavirus Outbreak (techcrunch.com) 34

Posted by msmash from the shape-of-things-to-come dept.
The coronavirus outbreak could result in at least a 3.3% drop -- and as high as a 9% dip -- in the volume of PCs that will ship globally this year, research firm Canalys reported Thursday evening in its revised projections to clients. From a report: PC shipments will be down between 10.1% to 20.6% in Q1 2020, the firm estimated. The impact will remain visible in Q2, when the shipments are expected to drop between 8.9% (best case scenario, per Canalys) and 23.4% (worst case scenario), it said. In the best case scenario, the outbreak would mean 382 million units will ship in 2020, down 3.4% from 396 million last year. The worst case makes a deeper dent, stating that about 362 million units will ship this year, down 8.5% from last year. "In the best-case scenario, production levels are expected to revert to full capacity by April 2020, hence the biggest hit will be to sell-in shipments in the first two quarters, with the market recovering in Q3 and Q4," the firm said.
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PC Shipments Expected To Drop This Year Because of Coronavirus Outbreak More

PC Shipments Expected To Drop This Year Because of Coronavirus Outbreak

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  • Comment removed based on user account deletion

    • Re: (Score:1, Funny)

      by 110010001000 ( 697113 )

      Unless you need a load of bananas.

      • that would be quite a thing to slip up on.

      • Unless you're in the banana business somehow (wholesale / logistics). In that case parents' advice of "order a month ahead" may very well apply.

        Lucky us that bananas aren't made in China... ^H^H^H^H Scratch that - they are [wikipedia.org]. Quite a few, actually.

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by AHuxley ( 892839 )
      Yes the parts and industrial systems are going to see limits of just in time over the next 2 months.
      Some factory system in Communist China now at empty, working at 10% to 50% is not going to be able to keep the world in what it once made.
      A lot of sites in the USA, EU, West are not going to have large amounts of what they need due to space, rent costs, numbers of staff they have using products every day.
      They always understood products would be ready on the next day, week, month.
      Everyone will be asking f

  • The headline should read instead "PC Shipments Expected To Drop This Year. Coronavirus Outbreak"

    somehow they typoed the sentence ending period into "because of". Now we just have two facts.

    • Are you saying that a virus outbreak that has shut down factories in China where many PC components are made and many PCs are assembled will have no effect on PC shipments this year? That seems the logical conclusion that if there will be fewer materials and less labor available, fewer PCs will ship.

      • Are you saying that a virus outbreak that has shut down factories in China where many PC components are made and many PCs are assembled will have no effect on PC shipments this year?

        Right that is what I am saying

        That seems the logical conclusion that if there will be fewer materials and less labor available, fewer PCs will ship.

        Your assumptions here are not right. China has only been off-line for a week now since they always shut down for the new years. And they will be back to manufacturing eventually. Since they have significant excess production capacity they will be able to fill all their orders despite a down time. That's why these forecasts about impact are overestimating.

        Moreover the Trade Wars are already having a large impact on Supply chains than the Virus has yet had. And manufacturer'

        • Your assumptions here are not right. China has only been off-line for a week now since they always shut down for the new years.

          No, they always plan for a two week shutdown around New Year. Chinese New Year was Jan 25 by the way. They did not plan for to be shutdown for weeks after the New Year. Are these factories up and running yet? No as some of them are not back up yet. So your facts are simply incorrect.

          Additionally, Taiwan is not china. And that's where a lot of the chips are actually made. FoxConn is building factories outside the country too.

          1) While businesses look to source in other places, Taiwan doesn’t have the sheer manufacturing capacity of China so yes Taiwan is no China. 2) PCs are more than chips. Cases, fans, PCBs, capacitors, wiring, etc. 3) You ar

  • The main indexes I keep track of aren't reacting in any significant way. I would expect this to have a fairly significant impact, especially in Asia. But the Australian ASX isn't doing much at all. I guess folk are banking on quantitative easing protecting them.

  • McAfee (Score:4, Funny)

    by Laxator2 ( 973549 ) on Friday February 21, 2020 @10:52AM (#59750768)

    The PC shipments will recover when McAfee will update its virus signatures database to include the coronavirus.
    Customers will then feel safe to buy new PCs.

    • No clearly Microsoft putting Defender on iOS and Android will definitely protect people from coronavirus. MS doesn’t always get the recognition for their security/medical work.

  • Generalized: "[placeholder] expected to drop this year because of Coronavirus outbreak". With [placeholder] usually referring to economic activities like production, sales & shipping of various items. Or tourism.

    Across many sectors, that reads as: we're consuming less, flying less, using less energy, raw materials, and outputting less greenhouse gasses. Not a dramatic decline in most cases, but still.

    I wouldn't be the first to think that in this day & age, people on average buy too mu

    • In the case of China where many PC components are made and where many PCs are assembled, it doesn’t take a large leap of logic that PCs will be affected by the corona virus (any disruption). Add to that the current model of just-in-time manufacturing where no one keeps a large stockpile of parts or finished goods means that any disruption will not be easily absorbed.
    • Replace [placehplder] with China,the media loves blsming China for evrything they donâ(TM)t blame Russia or NK for, but peoplewhere geting tieredof the never ending china is badMâ(TM)kay storry, but old habits die hard, then the corana virus poppe up in china, perfect now they can blame somerhing thst started in China, ei indirectly blameChina without it being to tedious.

    • Across many sectors, that reads as: we're consuming less, flying less, using less energy, raw materials, and outputting less greenhouse gasses. Not a dramatic decline in most cases, but still.

      I'd call China cutting CO2 emissions by 25% [carbonbrief.org] dramatic.

      So maybe it's not so bad. Hit the breaks a little, ...

      The virus is holding in there at 2.3% fatality rate. The world population is 7.8 billion. I've seen one estimate that, if it escapes the quarantines and becomes pandemic, 60 to 80% of the population will get it

  • The Corona virus is spread from human to human interaction and the virus doesn't last long just sitting on a surface. A PC Made in China even by an infected employees has such a small chance of crossing to the general public.
    However world leaders instead of dealing with the problem at the scope it deserves, it has been exaggerated creating stops in normal business, for a virus that has less of a toll then the Flu.
     

    • for a virus that has less of a toll then the Flu.

      Precisely because of all those 'stops in normal business' you are complaining about.
      If instead the corona virus was free to spread in every country/city/town and community like the flu currently does, a great many more people would be dead.

  • If PC shipments will diminish because of coronavirus, but Intel is still churnig Processors as fast as they can, does that mean that one effect will cancel the other and there will be no more shortages of intel parts?

    Or is intel 10nm Process node so screwed that even with diminished demand, they still can not cope.

    Thanks the Lord for AMD, THATIC and Zhaozin....

  • Is that some other form of boomer tech?

    Is it like a Zune?

  • Shipments of 99% of anything will be affected by this "so called bat soup virus". Because of greedy globalist, most everything produced, in some shape or form, comes from China :(

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