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This Was Supposed to Be the Year Driverless Cars Went Mainstream (nytimes.com) 73

Posted by msmash from the reality-check dept.
Tech companies once promised that fully functional, self-driving cars would be on the road by 2020 and on the path to remaking transportation and transforming the economy. From a report: But a decade after Google unveiled an autonomous car prototype with global fanfare, the technology is still far from ready, and many investors are wary of dumping more money into it -- just when the world could benefit from cars that ferry people and deliver packages without a human driver. The companies that made these promises are now in a jam: To perfect their technology, they need to test it on roads. But they need at least two people in the cars to avoid accidents. Because of social distancing rules meant to keep people safe during the coronavirus pandemic, that is often not possible. So many cars are sitting in lots.

"This is a difficult time for everyone," said Bryan Salesky, the chief executive of the start-up Argo AI, which is backed by $1 billion from Ford and another $1 billion in promised funding from Volkswagen. "We want to get back on the road as soon as it is safe to do so. There is no substitute for on-road testing." The timeout caused by the pandemic has hastened an industry shakeout that was already starting to happen. Many self-driving car companies have no revenue, and the operating costs are unusually high. Autonomous vehicle start-ups spend $1.6 million a month on average -- four times the rate at financial tech or health care companies, according to PitchBook, which tracks financial activity across the industry. It's a sharp turn from 2016, when an investment bubble in self-driving technology started.
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This Was Supposed to Be the Year Driverless Cars Went Mainstream More

This Was Supposed to Be the Year Driverless Cars Went Mainstream

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  • The Year of Driverless Cars (Score:5, Funny)

    by nman64 ( 912054 ) on Friday May 15, 2020 @04:11PM (#60064962) Homepage

    There are plenty more driverless cars today than there were at the end of 2019, but they're not going anywhere, and they're not self-driving. They're sitting in garages, driveways, and parking lots, seeing much less use while their owners are stuck at home.

    • There are plenty more driverless cars today than there were at the end of 2019, but they're not going anywhere, and they're not self-driving. They're sitting in garages, driveways, and parking lots, seeing much less use while their owners are stuck at home.

      Well then we should put all those cars out on the empty roads to get in some final practice before we go back to work.

    • They're all being run by mainstream desktop Linux, secured by mainstream smart cards, and networked over mainstream IPv6.

  • It is COVID fault ... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by superzerg ( 1523387 ) on Friday May 15, 2020 @04:12PM (#60064970)
    we made crazy promises 10 years ago and now after 3 month of shutdown we failed, it's definitely the fault of the virus !

    • Re: (Score:3)

      by Kjella ( 173770 )

      we made crazy promises 10 years ago and now after 3 month of shutdown we failed, it's definitely the fault of the virus !

      Waymo will be fine. It's the start-ups that are still in the "we need momentum to get funding to build momentum" phase that are in trouble. No offense, but actually driving around is the showing off phase. They're doing sensor development, processing hardware development, software development, simulations on real data, simulations on simulated data, closed track testing and so on. For example Nvidia just launched a huge boost to both the machine learning performance and in-car platform. Enough to make it wo

      • Re: (Score:1)

        by danskal ( 878841 )

        Nvidia did this launch because Tesla forced their hand with their CPU which outperformed Nvidia's by a factor of 3 (or 7 if you compare to their products that were on the market at the time). This is why Tesla competitors will fail. All rely on 3rd party vendors that have no interest in solving the actual problem as quickly and cheaply as possible. 3rd parties only have to be among the best in the market, and then milk customers as much as possible. They are run by accountants, not engineers.

        Tesla on th

  • Tesla Is Sorta Getting It Done (Score:3)

    by Vandil X ( 636030 ) on Friday May 15, 2020 @04:16PM (#60064998)
    Amid the COVID-19 lockdown period, Tesla released a software update launching their beta of in-town autopilot that can stop for traffic lights and stop signs.

    It's a small step forward, but at least they are doing it.

    Give Elon and the gang a few more years.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by AvitarX ( 172628 )
      They have the benefit of being able to harvest data and keep improving now too.

      If the all camera system ends up being a workable solution, I think Tesla will win the autonomous car race, since they have such massive input of real world driving vs any other company.

      • BAD real-world driving.
        As in: Mostly from the US, and from people who are so bad they actually like the idea of a machine doing it for them.
        Here in Germany, a laughable concept. The process to get a driver's license in the US is a joke. We would not even let a German ride a moped with that level of training, around here. (So it is strange, that a US license is even recognized.)

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by AvitarX ( 172628 )
          If only there were some metric they could use to measure the quality of the driving.

          Like I don't know, number of accidents and number of sudden stops for example?

          Or even location. I bet that's all impossible though, isn't it.

    • Re:Tesla Is Sorta Getting It Done (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward on Friday May 15, 2020 @04:32PM (#60065094)

      Give Elon and the gang a few more years.

      That's the thing. Eventually, we will have self-driving vehicles. But it won't be any time soon.

      Developing a REAL autonomous vehicle, not the fake bullshit being pushed by Tesla and others, is FAR more difficult than anyone wants to admit. Anyone who admits the truth will have trouble attracting investor money, so they continue to lie and claim that it's going to happen any day now.

      It's not.

      • Re: (Score:3)

        by jbengt ( 874751 )
        Anonymous Coward is right.
        Driver Assist is a done deal. Truly autonomous driving is going to be like feasibl fusion power - always a decade or two away.

    • the Tesla software seems Ok as long as no road work or anything other kind of change is made. once you start putting in barriers and whatever else while working on the roads, teslas seem to crash and burn into them

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by ahodgson ( 74077 )

        Not to mention rain, snow, or fog.

        I'll believe self-driving cars when one can get from Vancouver to Whitehorse in January.

        • Not for a long time. I'm sure driverless cars have some sort of inherent usefulness as does, for example, Linux on the Desktop, but right now the thing is being directed by fluid wealth consumers who want to blast from LA to Vegas while they drink Crown Royal and smash a cheerleader in the back seat. The VC folks need those types to support the burn rate. But it's years out and Tesla proves it; not a bad car I suppose, but people just want to sit in it and sleep. Not yet my sweet...
      • So, Tesla is ok as long as it's driving on a track like at Disneyland but fails in the real world.

        Disclaimer: I own a Tesla. It's fun to drive but I'd never ever ever under any circumstances let it drive for me. Driving is already dangerous enough.
  • And they were obviously idiots for not predicting a global pandemic a decade ago.

    Therefore everyone is dumb and wrong, except for me of course.

  • We've looked for the year for decades now...

    1984 was supposed to be the end of the world, and 2001 was supposed to have space stations, trips to Jupiter and classical music. Don't get me started on 2010.

    • We've looked for the year for decades now... 1984 was supposed to be the end of the world

      That World did end. This is a parallel one. You forgot the year of Linux on the desktop, and of flying cars. But next year will be the year of SD cars - really, really, really.

  • The year that ... (Score:3)

    by Freischutz ( 4776131 ) on Friday May 15, 2020 @04:23PM (#60065038)

    This Was Supposed to Be the Year Driverless Cars Went Mainstream

    So 'The Year driverless cars go mainstream" has revealed itself to be a close cousin of "The Year Liinux takes over the desktop"? ... well, long may it remain that way.

    • Anyone that ones one can have a Linux desktop though, I have mine.

      But diverless cars, flying cars, AI, .... on the deferred list

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by ahodgson ( 74077 )

        You could have a flying car. You just wouldn't be able to afford to fuel it. Not to mention you'd need to learn how to fly.

        • The only actual flying cars I know of are prototypes, they're not available for use even by those with pilot's license. I don't consider airplanes or helicopters flying cars either, I can't park or land either one around where I live, there would be disaster with the wires, streetlamps, houses at suburban spacing....

        • Fuel is still a big cost, but if you're rich enough to buy and own a helicopter (the closest thing to a flying car that you can actually buy today), you can afford to fuel it.

    • Re: (Score:3)

      by Mitreya ( 579078 )

      So 'The Year driverless cars go mainstream" has revealed itself to be a close cousin of "The Year Liinux takes over the desktop"? ... well, long may it remain that way.

      Yes, but for different reasons.
      The driverless car technology is not quite there
      Linux technology is there, but the general RTFM attitude is keeping it back.
      It will be an interesting race.

    • We got Linux everywhere. Servers, routers, phones, cars, professional PCs, ... It was not Linux that failed to get on the desktop. It was the desktop that turned out to be a failed abortion of a skeuomorphic concept.

      And just like the Desktop for Linux, self-driving turned out to be a dumb idea, and kinda merely a cancerous meme that everybody just does because they think it's how it's supposed to be. Like no headphone jack, or a notch, or no physical keyboard or a soldered-in battery for phones. Or "AI" and

  • If the only thing holding them back is that they can't put two people in the car together, maybe they should just invest in some testing for their employees? Test everyone once per week and pull them from rotation if they are positive. Just a thought!

  • In 2012, I made this prediction: In 2060 it will be illegal for humans to drive vehicles in the USA.

    I stand by that prediction.

    • I predict <a fuck ton of things that can't be known until long after I'm dead and hey who cares anyway because I'm just some random on the internet>.

    • By doing that, you do half the job of making it so.

      Look up "self-fulfilling prohecy".

      Just like p.c.ness started its rule, because people started to treat it like it is happening. Just like Justin Bieber rose to fame on top of a mountain of comments on how one hates so much how he's "popular".
      Just how a newspaper that wants everybody to think $x, titles "Everybody thinks $x, and we hate it!".

    • I seriously doubt that. At most, there will certain areas such as large city centers and limited access freeways that disallow human controlled automobiles. My prediction is that if the automobile I own today still exists in 2060 (gasoline powered, completely manually controlled with no driver aids), that I could still legally drive it almost anywhere I want assuming I can afford to fuel it. This might entail taking the back roads to avoid the freeways. As for city centers, my prediction is today's curr

  • It's only May (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Thelasko ( 1196535 ) on Friday May 15, 2020 @04:44PM (#60065148) Journal
    Can we wait until at least November to summarize how the entire year went?

  • Where are the flying cars.... (Score:3)

    by HotNeedleOfInquiry ( 598897 ) on Friday May 15, 2020 @05:01PM (#60065220)
    They promised us flying cars.
  • The Year of the Driverless Car is scheduled to arrive two years after the Year of the Linux Desktop.

  • There are more cars sitting home driverless than ever before.

  • We're not driving much at all!

  • overpaid engineers... (Score:3)

    by retchdog ( 1319261 ) on Friday May 15, 2020 @05:27PM (#60065308) Journal

    Look, those goddam engineers aren't producing. We paid that division over $2B which, according to this market analysis we got from overpaid innumerate hipsters, means we should be leading in both AI and quantum computing!

    So why is it so hard for you fucking nerds to make a self-driving car? My wife's dumber than my xbox, but she can still drive amirite lol?!

    We need these projects to fund our masterpiece, which is an internet-of-things enabled cooler that works by using green nanotech to separate hot atoms from cold atoms, for off the grid comfort! Our Demon-brand cooler is already theoretically proven to generate more energy than it consumes! Invest in Maxwell Corp. Now!

  • This could have been the perfect time for some public acceptance when we are all ordering food deliveries online. I could see a self-driving car having a box in the back seat with window access unlocked by a phone or something. And when we don't want drivers of cabs and Uber's to be hotboxing with possible infected people.

  • Both will go mainstream the same year.

  • just when the world could benefit from cars that ferry people and deliver packages without a human driver

    It's not entirely clear what the subcontext of the statement in the summary is. Assuming it is a reference to the current virus situation, I'm not sure how either of these situations would benefit from self-driving cars in the current virus situation.

    Having everyone drive their own cars is a good thing for virus isolation, whether the car is self-driving or not. If the self-driving car is a taxi, then that's potentially worse but certainly not better for virus isolation.

    For delivering packages, virus isol

  • At least for the south.
    The driverless cars are currently better than a human, at least when the weather isn't bad. Rain is hard, but snow is the real test. Even then, the driverless cars are close enough to a human, and FAR better than a teenager or drunk human

    The only reason we don't already have them is the arguments about blame, responsibility and insurance. If the President (whoever they should be), were to push through a law legalizing them if the weather is not snowing, and that the manufacturer

  • The only people who said that are Elon and Rei and their cohort of Elon cultists.

    The rest of us who have been paying attention and brutally mocking that crap for years were proven correct. But, tbh, it was an easy call.

    Driving is fucking hard. It amazes me how every day we can put millions of people on the road with minimal training, tons of distractions, insufficient sleep, and bad attitudes and yet have so few collisions.

    I can't remember how many times something happened near me at high speed and my ref

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by kackle ( 910159 )
      +1 Amen.

  • At all... some autopilot, cruise control, keep doing that cars... but none requiring no human interaction... because Strong AI is slil not a thing..

    • because Strong AI is still not a thing..

      Yet.

      When it is, self driving cars will be the least of your worries.

  • For the Year of Linux on the Desktop first...
  • But they'll surely get it right next time!
    Note to self: republish article in 2 years.

    On a different note, what's acceptable? 100% 99% 90% 50% 1%? Who decides?
    Where is it being applied? A racetrack, the freeway, freeway under repair, Main Street, Mayberry, an off-road mudding track, or with hunters in the middle of a forest?
    Who's going to pay for a system failure? Who's going to decide where that failure actually resides?

    It'll be accepted a bit before it's "good enough" for general case since pe

  • Supposed to be? According to whom? No one who has ever worked in industrial robotic systems (including autonomous vehicles, which have been around for a long time) thought that there would be true autonomous personal automobiles on public streets in 2020, and possibly not in 2120 either.

    Some techno-optimists, on the other hand...

  • I'm still waiting for my flying car, which I was told was five years away...in 1949 (well, not me personally)
  • Ever play Zork? Remember the bridge?

    You're halfway across
    You're three-quarters of the way across
    You're seven-eighths of the way across
    You're fifteen sixteenths of the way acorss
    (time passes)
    You're 65535 65536ths of the way across

    That's so-called 'self driving cars': they'll never get it across the finish line. Why? Because the technology is woefully insuffiicent. The so-called, over-hyped, inappropriately-named excuse for 'artificial intelligence' they keep trotting out to us is entirely incapable of reasoning and cognition of any kind, because we don't even know how our own brains do that, so we cannot build machines with those capabilities. All the 'training data' in the Universe is not enough,

  • Alright, so we didn't get driverless cars but we got carless roads. Who is to say that's any less of a win?

  • "But they need at least two people in the cars to avoid accidents. Because of social distancing rules meant to keep people safe during the coronavirus pandemic, that is often not possible."

    Hazmat suits will solve the problem.

  • This would have been the perfect year for driverless cars as people are trying not to breath the same air.

  • meet reality. Nothing new here. Move along.

  • And 20 years ago the Segway was supposed to revolutionize transportation.
    • Had they not been banned in public (uk) it would have been different. People love their leccy bikes over here - but only because we can actually use them.
  • FTFA:

    just when the world could benefit from cars that ferry people and deliver packages without a human driver

    That is talking about taxis, not cars in general. The writer is a city-centre dwelling hipster.

  • No person wants to have no control over their actions.

    It's just that some are advocating that you should not be a person/individual, like certain totalitarian control freak data kraken, or hold convenience so high that they would literally sell their soul for it. E.g. willful "smart" device buyers, S/M slaves, people who enter the military because daddy didn't give them a firm enough hand.

    The rest of us, actual individuals, want to be in control of their bodies, of their thoughts, ... and of their *tools*.

    A

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