Elon Musk Claims Full Recovery From Covid-19, Analyst Upgrades Tesla's Stock Forecast (thestreet.com) 99
Slashdot reader Charlotte Web quote The Street:
Tesla CEO Elon Musk says that he has "fully" recovered from his bout with a mild fever or cold about a week after he took to Twitter to say he tested positive for coronavirus... [T]his week, Musk took a more reliable PCR test that he said showed "unequivocal" evidence that he had Covid...
On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley raised Tesla to overweight for the first time in more than three years, predicting that the electric carmaker is on the verge of a "profound model shift" from selling cars to generating high-margin software and services revenue. "To only value Tesla on car sales alone ignores the multiple businesses embedded within the company," Adam Jones said in a research note to clients as he upgraded the shares from equal-weight and raised his price target by 50% to $540 from $360, suggesting 22% additional upside for the stock.
The analyst believes Tesla's electric vehicle business is Tesla's "entry ticket" for "unlocking much larger" potential markets, according to an earlier article in The Street: To better gauge Tesla's future earnings potential, Jones said his team was now including software/connected vehicle services revenue in their earnings and valuation forecasts. With the total number of Tesla's out in the world expected to reach 2.1 million next year, "a more in-depth understanding of the revenue streams derived from each car is warranted right now," he wrote.
On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley raised Tesla to overweight for the first time in more than three years, predicting that the electric carmaker is on the verge of a "profound model shift" from selling cars to generating high-margin software and services revenue. "To only value Tesla on car sales alone ignores the multiple businesses embedded within the company," Adam Jones said in a research note to clients as he upgraded the shares from equal-weight and raised his price target by 50% to $540 from $360, suggesting 22% additional upside for the stock.
The analyst believes Tesla's electric vehicle business is Tesla's "entry ticket" for "unlocking much larger" potential markets, according to an earlier article in The Street: To better gauge Tesla's future earnings potential, Jones said his team was now including software/connected vehicle services revenue in their earnings and valuation forecasts. With the total number of Tesla's out in the world expected to reach 2.1 million next year, "a more in-depth understanding of the revenue streams derived from each car is warranted right now," he wrote.
What kind of treatment? (Score:2)
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Just Nyquil and Dayquil. Described it as being much milder than most colds and flus he's had.
Which it is for the majority of people who have it. Unfortunately, some people react very badly to it.
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Oh, and he caught it in Sweden. Though ironically from an American visiting Sweden.
All in all it's probably reinforced all of his views about COVID, which is unfortunate. I do strongly agree with him about the importance of using common-sense precautions (masks, targeted restrictions, etc) rather than shutting down your entire economy**, in accordance with the Pareto principle [wikipedia.org] - which has now become standard practice for dealing with the disease in much of the world -including Europe, where most countries
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ED: should read "death with COVID" vs. "death due to COVID".
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if you are going down that path, then the best category would be:
"would've survived if it wasn't for covid" and "covid related death"
Because we don't care if covid was the major factor or not, we care about knowing if covid took us from a reality where that person is in "alive" category to a reality where that person is in the "dead" category. If there heart is the major thing, but they still would be alive, then yes they should count in the covid column. They should also count in the heart column if the sa
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(I'm really glad to see Europe focused on common-sense restrictions this time. Some types of activities are high risk (bars, clubs, gyms, indoor dining and theatres at normal densities, etc), and easy to shut down with proportionally limited economic impact - 80% of the goal achieved at 20% of the cost, as per the Pareto principle. Others still have finite but minimal transmission risk, but shutting them down has a big economic impact - the remaining 20% that costs 80%.)
Meanwhile, many countries maintain few restrictions and hardly any infections through serious test-and-trace. Europe seems to have completely missed the boat on that. To take an example I know well, Denmark has a world-leading test system which tests 10% of the population every week. However, Denmark traces 3 contacts on average, most of them being people in the same household. This leads to the testing being mostly a wasted effort.
England is putting its bets on mass testing as well, but tracing is done by
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Compare that to East Asia and Oceania ... significantly more effective isolation and lower transmission.
So only Eurasia is doing plusbad?
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Eurasia is ungood, Americas are doubleplusungood.
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From an economic standpoint, most people are still going to work, and that's what matters in terms of the collateral damage due to economic disruption.
But I pointed out France specifically because they have one of the strictest lockdowns in Europe this time, and even there, it's not like the spring.
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A 1 km (0.6mi) radius for 23 hours a day doesn't sound bad at all to me. Especially since shopping for necessities, work and childcare is excluded.
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I understand food/medicine/necessities, but other than that, what's the benefit of keeping most of the economy going that isn't outweighed by the long term costs in terms of death and a longer pandemic recovery. I'm looking at the US vs. New Zealand.
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There is an econommic cost to a life, in countless fields. For every $X invested in kidney dialysis, you save one life. For every $Y spent inspecting bridges, you save one life. For every $Z dollars you spend researching cancer treatments, you save 1 life. On and on, over and over.
Or to phrase it in an inverted manner: poverty kills.
Economic activity is a good thing. Individuals and governments going broke is a bad thing.
It's a simple fact that certain types of activities have proven to have far higher r
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Yes, continued activity in medicine (and infrastructure maintenance) is vital. That's why I said "aside from the necessary". You point out some things are low risk, and therefore there's no need to shut those things down either. Also true, no one is proposing stopping the lowest risk - WFH jobs. Which is why your entire point is a strawman.
When people discuss "stopping the economy" they are specifically talking about restaurants, bars, gyms, hair dressers, etc. That is, high risk activities that are on
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Signmakers work from home? Homebuilders work from home? Shipbuilders work from home? What?
Obviously during waves companies should use WFH where applicable. That falls under "reasonable control measures", alongside mask requirements, internal quarantines where possible (workers who don't have to work together don't interact), etc.
Places like restaurants, bars, gyms, hairdressers, etc only represent a small fraction of the economy. I have no objections to, or rather support, shutting down or heavily restrict
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I mean, in 2019 restaurants alone made up 5.6% of the US GDP.. But you're right, signmaking is a major driver of the economy. Hell, all durable-good manufacturing combined is only 9%, and can all be postponed 6 months. Whats the immediate benefit to allowing signmakers to work other than their income? (Which, yes, means the government needs to bail out the shut down companies or at least their employees.
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You are confused. Money is only the medium for the exchange or resources that actually occurs. That's is where capitalism has failed, money has taken presence over the proper allocation of resources, the more insanely worth more in capitalism that the actual resources, what we actually need and trade. The medium of exchange insanely outweighs the worth of the actual products being exchanged. The proper term is psychopathic capitalism, that is far more accurate.
Is it the exchange of resources that is off wo
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Money is an IOU on the future labour of others to produce goods and provide services. A bridge inspector doesn't go out and inspect bridges for giggles. He wants to be paid so he can go buy food, or a car, or a new TV, or go on vacation or whatnot. People likewise make and provide those goods and services not for fun, but because they want said IOUs for goods and services that they want.
When you shut down the creation of goods and services, you shut down the creation of the things that you're supposed to pa
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At least it wasn't bath salts.
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I'd probably die if I got hit by COVID-19 & SARS-CoV-2. Flus hit me hard (second worst illness for me) like last year that came early (end of August) before I could get my annual flu shot. I easily get sick (also have bad allergies) and infected too. :(
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He's famously a workaholic and goes stir-crazy away from work. He's almost assuredly doing everything he can from home and being upset that he can't leave to deal with things in person.
But he definitely has no need to have worries about money. It's crazy that in the US getting sick can cost you your job, or that you can be uninsured.
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"Work" for a CEO isn't quite the same as what you and I do for work.
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Musk can afford the one kind of treatment that the vast majority of the most vulnerable 'essential workers' can not: he could take time off work and still have a job and home when he came back.
Gotta love the USA, land of the free (to get fucked and have to find another job).
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Customers... (Score:2)
...are now the product. Tesla will sell customer driving patterns to insurance companies, location data to advertisers, movement and association history to law enforcement, and backseat activity records to private investigators.
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Data sharing is optional. Unlike with, say, using Google services. You have two levels of granularity - sharing AP-related data, and no data at all. I suppose if you're really paranoid you could disable the GSM connection. Shutting off your data of course impacts the features you can run.
Right now, Tesla insurance is pretty conventional, but they're planning to give drivers the option to have their data collected for real-time assessments of their driving risk - so people who are driving safely can get lo
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>"Right now, Tesla insurance is pretty conventional, but they're planning to give drivers the option to have their data collected for real-time assessments of their driving risk - so people who are driving safely can get lower rate"
Let me fix that for you (and others), it is so they can GUESS how safely you drive based on very limited data. You can be super-safe and still like to accelerate hard, brake hard, and corner like someone who isn't a 80-year-old grandmother, but that doesn't matter. It could
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but they're planning to give drivers the option to have their data collected for real-time assessments of their driving risk - so people who are driving safely can get lower rates.
This has never, ever happened in the history of the world. Please stop talking about a fairytale.
Insurance fees are collected at a certain amount ($X). If people who are driving safely get lower rates (by $A), then the insurance company is going to collect $X-$A.
That's not going to happen, so insurance companies will find a way to raise other rates to offset their loss (probably by more than $A).
But again, nobody is making you choose that route - you can go with conventional insurance.
If that were true, then people whose rates are decreased will win and people whose rates are increased would go
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The issue with your hypothesis is that Tesla has a data advantage. Other insurers don't have access to your data in any scenario; Tesla only if you grant it. So perhaps if you refuse Tesla access, Tesla insurance will assume you're a bad driver and quote you a high rate. But other insurers don't know this.
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but they're planning to give drivers the option to have their data collected for real-time assessments of their driving risk - so people who are driving safely can get lower rates.
This has never, ever happened in the history of the world. Please stop talking about a fairytale.
This has literally been happening for decades, at least in the US. Progressive, Allstate, Liberty Mutual, Safeco - all the majors offer (potentially) lower rates to drivers they deem "safer", as determined by data from telemetry devices customers put in their cars. Most all of them hook into your car's OBD and record all kinds of things like acceleration, speed, braking, miles driven, etc, which, combined with location data, gives them information that can determine whether you might just have coasted thr
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Based on the curve of "grew up with Emerald Mine money"? I don't think so.
Ivanka Trump also did more things than I did since she woke up - its easy when your at-birth passive income is measured in millions.
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His father - who Elon fled as a teenager - owned a stake in a small emerald mine in Namibia (purchased in exchange for half the value of a used bushplane). It did well for several years before going bankrupt. They lived a solid upper middle class life, quite good by SA standards of the time, though not by any means super-wealthy (if you doubt this, try to find Errol on any list of wealthy South Africans). It did however put Elon through a private school and give him access to books and a computer, which wa
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was getting ready to start college at Stanford to do a masters in physics
Wasn't that a Ph.D.?
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ED: Yes, correct.
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Owned a fifty-percent stake
Well, they had yachts, plural, so... Or to quote his dad:
You then go into poverty porn, but Elon didn't even get in trouble when he stole emeralds from his dad as a teenager, and working odd jobs as an activity doesn't mean he was poor. His dad invested 75% of the money in Zip2, and that's why Elon got such a large sta
Re:Customers... (Score:4, Informative)
Errol has always always talked himself up. He's also been tried for murder and fathered a child with his stepdaughter that he raised since she was a young child, so caveaet emptor.
You can see what sort of vehicles his family had when he was a child. Here's before the divorce [cnbcfm.com] (a VW Beetle). Here's after the divorce [eastbaytimes.com]. Oh, and skipping ahead after Elon moved away, here's Elon fixing his junker [gadgets360cdn.com] in college.
Elon too has described the "unable to close his safe" thing. Only, he puts it differently [rollingstone.com].
People bring up his father to imply that somehow inherited his wealth. He did not. Up until Zip2 started being successful, he was a teenage immigrant / college student who worked odd jobs.
The thing is, there's a good discussion to be had regarding the nature of privilege. E.g. would Elon have gotten to where he was today if he had been born a poor black South African? Not at all, in many different way - no access to books, to computers, to a good education, no connections to Canada through his mother, etc. That's privilege, and it's real, and it should be recognized.
But instead of want to talk about that, people want to push this "he inherited billions of dollars in emerald money and that's why he's successful", which is just BS.
And lastly, I'll reiterate: to anyone who thinks Errol is super-wealthy, find him on any list of wealthy South Africans [google.is]. I'm waiting. Take your time.
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** caveat
** witchcraft
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It's telling about the world we live in. Tesla does everything they've done. Morgan Stanley: cool.
Tesla gives an indication they might sell some surveillance data. Morgan Stanley: BUY!!!
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...are now the product. Tesla will sell customer driving patterns to insurance companies, location data to advertisers, movement and association history to law enforcement, and backseat activity records to private investigators.
Yeah, can't have your phone and your car snooping on you at the same time. That's snoopception, or something.
Seriously though, unlike the smartphone OS duopoly, there's plenty of competition in the automotive industry - especially if you don't mind driving something that still runs on dino juice (IMHO, that's a feature, not a bug).
Let me pour you a Teslarita... (Score:2)
Tequila with short sellers' tears.
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Re:Let me pour you a Teslarita... (Score:4, Insightful)
"Clown Recovers From Covid. Circus Stocks Zoom. More At Eleven."
Lol, Adam Jonas (Score:1)
Whether he's being a bull or a bear, I still don't know why people listen to him; he's so ridiculous that he's inspired Twitter parodies [twitter.com].
For those who are curious, here's his actual breakdown (Thanks Æx):
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Tesla Auto: $254/share. 10 yr DCF derived. Assumes 3.8 million units by 2030 (from ~500k in 2020). Exit ebitda margin of 18.7% (12.2% EBIT). WACC of 8.0%, terminal value ebitda multiple of 13.0x. Valuation implies 24.4x 2022 EV/ebitda or 12.6x 2025 EV/ebitda.
Tesla Energy: $12/shr. 20 yr DCF derived.
Re:What's going to happen (Score:5, Insightful)
The real car companies are about to overwhelm Tesla.
Tesla is a real car company. They produce real cars, sell them, and deliver them to customers.
The automobile industry is quite competitive, mainly because it has a tremendous amount of factory capacity. The bulk of it is fairly good at cutting material cost out of the products it produces, but very wasteful in other areas. Only Toyota stands out as being conscious of that waste, though the South Korean manufacturers are decent at it. Most of the rest still behave as if it is 1970 and they'll sell every car they can make a nice margin, so there is little need to innovate or respond to what customers demand due to the large capital cost of competitors entering their market.
Tesla is different in a number of very important ways. They took the demand for an electric only car much more seriously, and they recognized that self driving features were the future much earlier, which has put them well ahead in ways that just can't be bought. They also haven't let themselves get slow and bureaucratic (yet). They built a factory in China that was up and running in a year, and the one they are building in Germany should be producing in about a year. Ford and GM combined, couldn't build a picnic table in a year's time.
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Reality: power density means pure electric is still a force fit technology, hype train notwithstanding. Combine that with abusive software licensing and remote kill, plus Musk outing himself as a piece of shit, and my dollars go elsewhere for now and forever thanks.
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And battery production.
And the super charger network.
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Not a roof, but honda used the wrong glue formulation on a whole series and the windows could fall into the passenger compartment and shatter.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/w... [google.com]
Or how about GM using shitty glue that would... allow the roof to blow off of Corvettes.
https://www.autonews.com/artic... [autonews.com]
I don't own any Tesla stock, but I have to say: all the uproar over, well anything Tesla really, seems to be people who think other car companies' shit don't stink.
My friends Dodge Power Wagon (2017) made a thunk sou
Re:What's going to happen (Score:4, Informative)
Old-school automakers generally earn negative-to-minimal margins on EVs. Tesla earns >27% w/credits / >22% w/o credits - despite facing transoceanic shipping and import tariffs in many of their markets, which most of their "competitors" do not.
It's not Tesla that needs help here.
"Competition is coming" has been the shorts' refrain ever since Tesla was founded. "The competition" keeps trying. And they keep failing. Shorts cheer every single time a new vehicle from "the competition" bursts onto the market, declaring it to be the death knell for Tesla, only to watch it peter out while Tesla keeps surging ahead.
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What you are seeing from the big manufacturers is not 'failure', it is testing the waters via low investment experiments to see if the pieces are in place for the mass market yet. Tesla o
Re:What's going to happen (Score:4, Insightful)
Your perception of who is gorged on debt - Tesla or old-school automakers - is inverted. Tesla has a tiny amount of debt. Old school automakers are drowning in it.
And the reality is that you can't just jump in in the middle fully fledged. Making vehicles isn't about hand-making prototypes. It's about maturing production systems. The exact same thing applies to EV components. And because Tesla is so vertically integrated, other companies can't just "build by catalogue", calling up Tesla's suppliers and buying the same systems as Tesla did, because Tesla often is it own supplier - and keeps increasingly becoming moreso (esp. with the new Roadrunner line). It puts you many years behind, in a race that keeps going while you try to catch up. Except that Tesla also iterates much faster than old-school automakers, too.
Nor are old-school automakers trying to just jump in the middle fully fledged. Nissan for example had invested $5,6B in EVs... by 2011 [greencarreports.com]. Want to guess what that number is now? Yet Tesla is still eating their lunch.
Nobody is just sitting around and waiting. They're trying. Repeatedly. And failing. Repeatedly.
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What "remote kill" are you talking about?
And again: if you don't want a connected data, disable data access.
If you don't trust that the menu actually disables data access, disable the GSM antenna.
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What "remote kill" are you talking about?
As in, if you stop making payments, it will be killed remotely while parked and then repossessed.
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Which is fictional. Does not happen. So can we go back to the real world, or are we having too much fun inventing our own misery?
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Even if Tesla made really great cars, which is debatable, remote kill is an absolute nonstarter for me. Bye Tesla.
You know, with all the Tesla trollmods on here I'm beginning to really loath Tesla and everbody involved with it. Have a nice day.
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Plus Tesla's engineering is kind of junky compared to BMW, say, or a bunch of Japanese manufacturers. And Musk, what a stench.
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And even if you don't believe their engineering lead isn't a real mote, consider this important question: where the hell do you think the rest of the industry is going to get batteries?
There won't be enough raw materials to go around in 5 years. The companies that have established quotas *now* with producers, who have made moves to even make their own cathodes and get into minging [techcrunch.com] will have the kwh of batteries to actually get cars off
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Tesla has mostly demonstrated its inability to contribute to battery technology in any meaningful way. That coupled with locking you out of your own software running on that somewhat amateur hardware plus remote kill plus Musk outing himself as an absolute piece of shit took Tesla out of my personal transportation plans forever. Don't miss it a bit, I'll just stay loyal to that lovely Japanese and German engineering thanks. Feel much better now about not entrusting my safety and comfort to a newbie auto eng
Recovered already? (Score:4, Insightful)
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It's already been several weeks. Elon visited Sweden, where he was infected by another visiting American, around the start of November. It's been about 2 1/2 weeks now. His symptoms started disappearing a week before last Friday evening. He never reported a loss of smell or taste.
Still not impossible to see a recurrence of symptoms, though.
Stock market is mad. (Score:2)
Tesla stock is unusual, Its real float is much smaller than official float because number of people who own TSLA who will not sell no matter what is high.This caused the formula used to calculate price of the stock two or three years out was under-pricing these call options significantly. Some algorithms that detected this mismat
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I too was a great fan of Tesla right up to the point Musk outed himself as a disgusting piece of shit.
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Where's your /s tag?
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This is so wrong. For one thing you can pass it to vulnerable people, so please don't be such a self obsessed piece of shit. For another, a startlingly high proportion of infected people end up with long term organ damage, even if asymptomatic. Even if young and healthy. So just shut the fuck up with your denial.
But there will be no recovery from... (Score:2)
But there will never be a recovery from the stupid things Musk said and did with respect to covid. As they say, the bit was flipped.
"I claim..." (Score:2)
and I claim to be a prominent neurologist... let me work on your brain, ok? Elon claims to be a lot of things...
Wyld Stallyns Plays The Moon! (Score:1)
...gave Rock n' Roll to you.
Putt it in the soul of everyone...
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Space Karen feels better (Score:2)