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Japan Transportation

Japan To Phase Out Gasoline-Powered Cars, Bucking Toyota Chief (wsj.com) 209

Japan said it planned to stop the sale of new gasoline-powered cars by the mid-2030s, bucking criticism by Toyota's chief that a hasty shift to electric vehicles could cripple the car industry. From a report: The plan released Friday followed similar moves by the state of California and major European nations, but it has faced resistance from car executives in a country that still makes millions of cars annually running solely on gasoline engines. Japan would still permit the sale of hybrid gas-electric cars after 2035 under the plan. Many models from Japan's top car makers -- Toyota, Honda Motor and Nissan Motor -- come in both traditional and hybrid versions.

Earlier this month, Toyota President Akio Toyoda said that if Japan was too hasty in banning gasoline-powered cars and moving to electric vehicles, "the current business model of the car industry is going to collapse." He was speaking on behalf of Japanese car makers in his role as head of a local industry association. Mr. Toyoda said the electricity grid couldn't handle extra summer demand and observed that most of Japan's electricity is generated by burning fossil fuels. Government officials said car makers needed to revise their business models. Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga pointed to a different portion of Mr. Toyoda's comments in which the Toyota chief said he backed the government's goal of making Japan carbon-neutral by 2050. Reducing carbon emissions "should be tackled as a strategy for growth, not as a limitation on growth," Mr. Suga said.

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Japan To Phase Out Gasoline-Powered Cars, Bucking Toyota Chief

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  • Foresight (Score:5, Insightful)

    by RandomUsername99 ( 574692 ) on Friday December 25, 2020 @04:09PM (#60865742)

    Toyota is taking a page from the American auto industry's book— see an obvious change coming, and instead of trying to innovate and preserve their relevance, they spend all of their energy resisting the change. If they didn't see the electric switch-over coming and consider numerous strategies to smoothly transition into it, it's their own stupid-ass fault. They're a dinosaur and dinosaurs move slowly, but they've got resources and talent that smaller, more nimble companies only dream of. Now they're scrambling and look like they don't know what they're doing. Better luck next time, that is, if you're lucky enough to get a next time.

    • Indeed. If Toyota doesn't change their thinking, they are going to get Teslaed.

      Complacent incumbents often fail to survive revolutions.

    • Re: Foresight (Score:3, Informative)

      by orlanz ( 882574 )

      Toyota is the only major car mfg focusing on hydrogen fuel cells. That is their trajectory to get off of gasoline. It's an interesting play, if they succeed, they are the default market leader; if they fail, they have a number of players to license battery-electric from.

      Their target also reuses much of the current fuel distribution apparatus. Note that the Chief is basically against charging off the grid; ie: battery-electric. He is more worried about fighting a Japanese lock-in to EV because his horse ma

      • Their target also reuses much of the current fuel distribution apparatus.

        I don't see this. Other than the tractors used to tow fuel trailers, nothing can be re-purposed from gasoline to hydrogen.

    • Toyota is taking a page from the American auto industry's book— see an obvious change coming, and instead of trying to innovate and preserve their relevance, they spend all of their energy resisting the change.

      It's hard to say Toyota is anti-innovation, given they came out with the Prius and now has full electric cars out. At worst you could say they bet too hard on fuel-cells, when they should have built better batteries. And now they are trying to catch up.

      • The Prius came out nearly a quarter century ago. GM had the EV-1 in 1996. Nissan was selling the LEAF in 2010.

        In 2020, Toyota is playing catch-up.

    • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

      Toyota's got lots of electric vehicles. I expect they'd rather not have electric mandates because they're pretty much the go-to vehicle for places like middle of nowhere Africa, and that's going to stay gasoline for a while.

      If you're already offering a broad product line, it's a competitive edge if you can offer it everywhere.

    • Ever heard of Toyota Prius?

    • by leonbev ( 111395 )

      At least Japan isn't trying to switch over to completely electric vehicles by 2030 like some countries are. The electric grid is going to need a TON of modernization if they want to be able to support electric car charging at every residential garage in an entire country. It's probably going to take more than 10 years to accomplish, even in a fairly dense country like Japan.

      We're also living in a world where 97% of all vehicles sold still have gasoline or diesel engines. We're not as far along in the migrat

      • ...at every residential garage in an entire country

        Something forgotten here in California with a similar foolish idea, how about every parking space in an apartment building or complex. What happens for the people who need to park on the street, because there are no parking places at their apartment? They will need to add a stop to their day much lengthier than a few minutes at a gas station.

        • not really, if they are smart they'll go to a charger at lunch time and then go for lunch or do something similar in the evening. most vehicles are not used for 90% of the time.
      • no-one is switching totally over to EVs in 2030 etc, they are just stopping the sale of fossil cars and those cars will still be running until the fossil infrastructure diminishes and becomes a niche market like steam engines
      • by Rei ( 128717 )

        We're also living in a world where 97% of all vehicles sold still have gasoline or diesel engines.

        And global EV sales are growing at over 50% YoY average, with no signs of the trend stalling out (just COVID blips alongside cars in general). Such are S-curves. As far as new car sales go, ICE days are numbered.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      Japan's auto industry is made up of a large number of companies that supply various parts. For example they might make some if the drivetrain... The drivetrain that is going away when manufacturers switch to electric.

      Worse still Chinese companies hold a lot of the patents on EV technology so they want to develop ways around them, or simply wait for them to expire.

      Thus a fast transition is undesirable, at least for the likes of Toyota.

    • Toyota is taking a page from the American auto industry's book— see an obvious change coming, and instead of trying to innovate and preserve their relevance, they spend all of their energy resisting the change.

      It's not the "American" auto industry. It's very much the *entire* auto industry. No car company is really taking EV seriously. Sure a few have sidegigs. Nissan has the Leaf, Opel the Ampere, the Volt, the Zoe, the ID, but no car company is taking this at all seriously.

      Instead it seems like the future may be dominated by names people didn't hear 5-10 years ago. Tesla. BYD. BAIC. Hell even Tata has more EV models on the market than pretty much every traditional auto company.

      You can tell how "all in" car comp

      • About taking EV seriously VW might disagree with you, Audi/Mercedes are ramping the number of EVs they are going to produce. Fossil companies cannot switch their lineups overnight and thats their biggest problem.
        • VW has precisely 2 EVs on the market both of which are not pushed or marketed at all, and one of which is a direct result of legal action due to the diesel scandal.
          Källenius, the Daimler CEO is well on the record as having no interest in EVs and is very much banking on diesel being here to stay. Hell Daimler's most successful EV venture is the Denza brand which is a joint venture with BYD manufactured by BYD for the Chinese market. They are literally just throwing money at competitors in a greenwashing

  • Electric cars do okay emission wise, even with a modern coal plant and transport losses. Turbines are a lot more efficient than ICE. With gas it's not a contest.

    Which is not to say scaling up the grid to handle the load, lack of recycling technology for batteries etc don't have to get solved ... perhaps in an impossible timeframe.

  • I hope we figure out how to better recycle car batteries by the time mandatory ICE phase out takes effect.

    Citation: It’s time to get serious about recycling lithium-ion batteries [acs.org]

    If current trends for handling these spent batteries hold, most of those batteries may end up in landfills even though Li-ion batteries can be recycled. Because the Li-ion battery industry lacks a clear path to large-scale economical recycling, battery researchers and manufacturers have traditionally not focused on improving

    • Tesla is on it [tesla.com]. The article you linked to seems to conflate car batteries and cell phone batteries, and they are not equivalent.

    • I hope we figure out how to better recycle car batteries by the time mandatory ICE phase out takes effect.

      Cars have an average lifetime of 12 years. So large-scale recycling will lag adoption by about a decade.

      It is likely that EVs will last even longer on average since there is much less wear than with an ICE.

      • it'll be even longer than that with batteries going to less stressful second life applications before recycling
    • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

      Sure, as the transition metals in batteries become a limiting factor, as they will when EVs really take off, "current trends" will definitely "hold."

    • Companies are already doing it. But an EV battery can go into a second life application (eg home storage) that is a lot less stressful and that will prolong its life before even considering recycling
    • Currently EV batteries generally go to secondary use markets, i.e. they get broken up by scrappers who sell the cells off to people who want to use them to build their own battery storage systems, or who want to use them to build their own EVs (although AFAIK most of those people are buying new lifepo4 cells now.) Or in the case of tesla battery packs, they are broken up into modules of cells.

      Tesla actually had trouble getting enough packs to spin up their recycling program because they are so aggressively

  • No surprising (Score:5, Insightful)

    by DrXym ( 126579 ) on Friday December 25, 2020 @04:23PM (#60865768)
    Once upon a time Toyota couldn't get enough of bragging how green and eco friendly they were. That was when the company had a monopoly on hybrids and made every other manufacturer look bad. These days it is Toyota that looks bad. They've sat on their asses so long that they've been leapfrogged. While they're producing their glorified ICE vehicles with a big starter motor, every other manufacturer has at least a plugin electric hybrid vehicle and battery electric vehicles are ones step beyond again.

    And as a consequence Toyota have turned from green evangelists into assholes. They're running ads blurring the lines between hybrid and plugin hybrid. They're promoting bullshit go-nowhere cock-blocking tech like hydrogen. They fudding about solid state batteries and other stuff that doesn't exist. It is all designed to denigrate battery technology, confuse consumers and slow the rate of adoption.

    It is good that Japan is finally mandating rules they'll have to abide by but it is clear that even at this stage they're still being dicks about it.

    • As a happy Prius owner I have to say: you are right (unfortunately). If Toyota stays on this course my next car will not be a Toyota

    • I have a plug-in Prius, so it seems that part of the company is heading in the right direction. I am reminded of GM, which killed its EV1 offering with malice around 2000, then in 2009 it's CEO Rick Wagoner mocked the buyers of its new Volt EV, and was canned. They had a good product, but their own management hated it.

      .

      • by DrXym ( 126579 )
        Most of Toyota's range are at least hybrid but the plugin hybrid choices are very restricted. I suspect they don't have enough battery capacity to do anything more than they're doing and have decided that negative PR, smoke & mirrors are the way to compete with other manufacturers that aren't suffering those issues.
    • They're running ads blurring the lines between hybrid and plugin hybrid.

      I see that Kia has now taken a leaf out of Toyota's playbook, describing their mild hybrids as "self-charging".

      • If driven correctly (smooth, easy starts and stops) then a mild hybrid can offer a big percentage of the benefit of a full hybrid without having to have a big expensive battery or an overly complex transmission. You get the take-off power, you get the regen, and you get the seamless auto start-stop. It doesn't regen as much obviously so you really do have to brake earlier and easier, but so what? Lots of people could stand to pay more attention to what's coming up.

        Making every vehicle a mild hybrid would ha

      • by DrXym ( 126579 )
        Yes the "self-charging" BS is what I'm referring to. They're not alone of course. Many manufactures are pushing "mild hybrids" which are basically regular cars with a slightly larger battery and software that turns the motor off at lights.
    • These days it is Toyota that looks bad.

      They are in good company. The future is looking to be dominated by brands people didn't hear about 5 years ago. Tesla, BIAC, BYD, Tata, SIAC, I'd like to see some more American / European names in there but other than Tesla the rest seem to be pedalling vapourware.

      The entire industry is facing a moment of truth. They can either pull their finger out or they may not be around in 15 years.

  • by ukoda ( 537183 ) on Friday December 25, 2020 @04:28PM (#60865778) Homepage
    If Toyota's chief thinks mid 2030's is hasty then I think you can see the problem with Toyota adapting to a changing world.

    If Toyota were smart they would copy Tesla and get into the clean energy production market space as Japan is going to need a major roll out of clean energy options given they are backing away for nuclear power generation and customers are going to start focusing more on BEVs regardless of what Toyota would like them to do.
  • by DontBeAMoran ( 4843879 ) on Friday December 25, 2020 @04:56PM (#60865826)

    Toyota President: Akio Toyoda.
    Honda President: Kaneda Honta.
    Nissan President: Tetsuo Nissun.

    • Ever heard of the concept of family businesses and alternate spellings of foreign names?

    • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

      Weird! It's like the companies are named after the people that founded them or something!

      Not like good American companies like Ford, Chrysler and Disney.

    • The spokesman for Flex Tape? Phil Swift
      The Spokesman for the Teeter back stretcher? Roger Teeter

      Don't tell me these people found their true calling for a product that is marketed to television viewers. They were named for the product!
    • You can't make what up? That family owned businesses have their last name in company name?

      If you want to really blow your mind realise that Toyota Motors was founded by Kiichiro Toyoda and is currently run by Akio Toyoda, while Toyota Industries a completely different company was founded by Sakichi Toyoda and currently chaired by Tetsuro Toyoda.

      Do you realise that Ford motors had Henry Ford as an executive, followed by his son Henry Ford II, followed by his son William Ford who is still chairman to this day

  • You know, with integrated CO2 capture.

    Because the dirty secret of electric cars is that batteries use a LOT of minerals extracted in toxic, enviroment-destroying processes that create shittons of CO2.
    Apart from their really bad energy density and resistance to regular fire extinguishing.

  • > mid-2030s

    or

    > hasty

    Pick one. A dozen years is too long. Even an industry like cars can move faster than that, especially considering the stakes.

    • What? Cars that are on the drawing board NOW won't be for sale until 2025-2026. It takes a LOT of time to design car's body, powertrain, interior, features, set up supply chains, retool manufacturing.... Car manufacturers are notorious for not having their entertainment systems be compatible with certain forms of Bluetooth for handsfree operation, much less compatibility with carplay or Android Auto. They certainly cannot move that fast, and it may very well be their undoing.
  • From the company that started the hybrid revolution, this is incredibly stupid and short sighted thinking. They should simply use what they learned with the Prius and others to change over their entire line immediately and crush everyone else for the next 100 years or until all the gas runs out. They have until then to win on pure electric.

  • Tesla should acquire Toyota and then shutdown the factories, sell off the land and robotic equipment and put the proceeds of that sale into a retirement/retraining fund for ex-Toyota workers.

  • by backslashdot ( 95548 ) on Friday December 25, 2020 @07:52PM (#60866102)

    Traditional automakers are being slow-motion blindsided on two fronts:

    1. The switch to electric
    2. The switch to active accident avoidance via advanced driver-assistance systems

    They just don't get it.

  • Nothing of value is lost and the Japanese vehicle market will provide whatever vehicles are necessary. Japanese don't keep cars a long time anyway so no one will be inconvenienced. ICE vehicles need not be built or sold in Japan. If some exception is necessary it can be made. The parts of the world needing ICE will have them (and have other Toyota plants to produce them if deemed profitable).

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