Electric Cars 'Will Be Cheaper To Produce Than Fossil Fuel Vehicles By 2027' (theguardian.com) 376
An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Guardian: Electric cars and vans will be cheaper to produce than conventional, fossil fuel-powered vehicles by 2027, and tighter emissions regulations could put them in pole position to dominate all new car sales by the middle of the next decade, research has found. By 2026, larger vehicles such as electric sedans and SUVs will be as cheap to produce as petrol and diesel models, according to forecasts from BloombergNEF, with small cars reaching the threshold the following year. The falling cost of producing batteries for electric vehicles, combined with dedicated production lines in carmarkers' plants, will make them cheaper to buy, on average, within the next six years than conventional cars, even before any government subsidies, BloombergNEF found.
The new study, commissioned by Transport & Environment, a Brussels-based non-profit organization that campaigns for cleaner transport in Europe, predicts new battery prices will fall by 58% between 2020 and 2030 to $58 per kilowatt hour. A reduction in battery costs to below $100 per kWh, is viewed as an important step towards greater take-up of fully electric vehicles, and would largely remove the financial appeal of hybrid electric vehicles, which combine a battery with a conventional engine.
The new study, commissioned by Transport & Environment, a Brussels-based non-profit organization that campaigns for cleaner transport in Europe, predicts new battery prices will fall by 58% between 2020 and 2030 to $58 per kilowatt hour. A reduction in battery costs to below $100 per kWh, is viewed as an important step towards greater take-up of fully electric vehicles, and would largely remove the financial appeal of hybrid electric vehicles, which combine a battery with a conventional engine.
Not the only problem... (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Not the only problem... (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Not the only problem... (Score:5, Interesting)
Bring it on! Why is it our ancestors could string up telephone poles and water and sewer systems and a power grid and we are somehow incapable of doing so? This is what we need to do, let's do it.
Because those things didn't exist and they had acre upon acre to dig up. Now we have cities and developments, not to mention all the stores and restaurants in between, plus roads, blocking the way of installing anything.
When you have no interference, it's easy to get things done.
Re:Not the only problem... (Score:5, Insightful)
Cities by their nature are expensive to rebuild, and yet impossible to run unless you are continually rebuilding them. Any successful city's skyline is dotted with cranes; it's footprint is littered with roadway and bridge projects; it's streets constantly dug up and re-plumbed for new or upgraded utilities.
All these things would be far cheaper and easier if the city wasn't there, or if you could interrupt services to the city while you tinker. But the city is there and it has to keep running. That doesn't *stop* cities from doing what they have to do, they just plow ahead. This year New York should put the final touches on Water Tunnel #3, a project which was started in 1970, over fifty years ago.
Or look at the insane things Chicago's Deep Tunnel Project did to handle storm runoff [flickr.com] for the very flat city. It's just mind boggling, but if they didn't do it then sewage would infiltrate their drinking water supply.
Nobody wants to do megaprojects, but if you want to stay a modern city you have no choice.
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I don't see those things being as proflic in only 7 years as would be needed for mass adoption of electric only vehicles.
They need more range too, if they are to become the ONLY type vehicle families have too. We tend to buy all purpose vehicles in the US, each one needs to not only be good for the usual short daily hops, but they need to be able to take a road trip 8+ hours a day driving without many stops, just like we can do with regular ga
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Re: Not the only problem... (Score:3)
When I need to recharge my electric car, I plug it in in my garage. So I save a few minutes a week on gas station visits. That more than counterbalances the extra minutes I spend at a quick-charging station on long trips.
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Learned helplessness.
Or maybe just a convenient excuse.
Re:Not the only problem... (Score:5, Insightful)
This is standard FUD. The issue has been studied many times and everyone comes to the same conclusion. Since most EVs are charged at night when the load on the electric grid is low, there isn't a problem in charging lots of electric cars.
My electric car uses only about 5% of my total electric demand... and all of that is at night. I can schedule charging to take place when utilities offer cheap night time electricity.
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Re:Not the only problem... (Score:5, Informative)
I'm worried about being in the middle of nowhere and finding a charging station but they are both taken.
Actually there are plenty of charging stations if you know where to look. RV camp grounds. Cross country EV drivers book stays at them where they can charge their cars and take a nap.
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Not a lot of RV camp ground here in the city area...and last time I did an online search for EV charging stations just in the city area, I could not find many at all.
Most of the ones that turned up, were on private property and not available to the public.
And in this area, most parking at houses is on the street, old city, n
Re:Not the only problem... (Score:5, Interesting)
it is charging stations being at least as prevalent as gasoline stations [...]
Keep in mind that there was a time in the US where gas stations were few and far between. And nobody was going to get rid of their horses because they could eat grass by the side of the road and that didn't cost anything, where you had to pay money for gasoline.
It's a funny thing--create more electric cars and somebody'll come along with a way to sell electricity to charge those cars and an infrastructure will be built up. Ah, capitalism...
Re:Not the only problem... (Score:4)
Not a lot of RV camp ground here in the city area...and last time I did an online search for EV charging stations just in the city area, I could not find many at all.
There are hundreds of RV camp grounds all over the place. They are all around every major city but you rarely find them in the city. There are 3 within walking distance of my apartment right now. I did a google search and found them all over the place.
Re:Not the only problem... (Score:5, Interesting)
it is charging stations being at least as prevalent as gasoline stations
It's frustrating to see so many people make this incredibly ignorant statement. It's this absolute inability to understand how BEVs work, and dogged determination to believe that ICE vehicles and BEVs work the same way.
They do not. And if you're still saying dumb shit like this, I can only stick you in the camp of anti-BEV troll, or fucking moron.
Ask anyone with a BEV how often they need a charging station, and they'll all tell you "just about never". Why? Because they start every day with "a full tank" at home.
If your ICE vehicle started with a full tank every morning, how often would you need a gas station? It's the same thing for BEV owners. They need them when driving more than 200 miles a day, which is rare for most people. Other than that, they don't need them.
Yep, you'll need them here and there along interstates, but you're going to need almost none in residential areas. Yep, maybe you'll need some in areas with dense apartments with no charging options, but people who own a home won't need one. This is going to require far fewer charging stations, and as batteries get bigger, we'll need less and less of them.
The other reason this is a stupid point of view is that electricity goes to every home and business, and gasoline does not. For $10k a business can set up a couple of chargers to entice some additional business. They can't do this with gasoline. There is zero reason to create a centralized distribution center like we have for gasoline. More than likely most areas will end up with far more chargers than they need. They are low maintenance, cheap, and can get installed at any building with electricity.
If you're going to try to scaremonger about anything related to BEVs, chargers are about the worst option.
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Just a coincidence: Yesterday I was at a strip mall, and I saw a free EV charging station in the parking lot. This being America, free-as-in-beer does not equal free-as-in-range. I wasn't able to tell who was the intended customer, though I'm pretty sure it isn't the car owner.
That actually makes some pretty good business sense. You need to charge your car so you head to the mall. Its going to take some time to charge your car so unless you want to sit in it, you can always pop into the mall for a bit. Probably do a little shopping or get some lunch.
Tesla only stations need to go (Score:2)
Tesla only stations need to go
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And in this area, most parking at houses is on the street, old city, not many have garages or any off street parking for charging at home overnight.
I'm guessing most older extreme urban areas have the same problem?
Not where I live. They have been putting up road side EV charging stations and they started with the oldest part of the city.. founded in 1642. They are mostly in the downtown core area but even where I live(away from center, cheaper rents/poorer people), there are 4 stations (2 cars each) within 3 blocks and I'm sure they will install more as needed. Just plug your car in, tap your membership card and walk away.
Re: Not the only problem... (Score:2)
That simply cannot happen unless you deliberately engineer it in most of the US since a few years ago.
Re:Not the only problem... (Score:5, Insightful)
Electricity infrastructure is remarkably ubiquitous. I don't know if you have noticed lately but there is electricity just about everywhere there are people.
Please tell me more about your dream of being in the middle of nowhere but somehow there is a charging station there and two other EVs? I really don't follow...
Re:Not the only problem... (Score:5, Interesting)
You know, every gas station I've ever been to has had electricity. If our politicians weren't so deeply in the pockets of the "energy" companies, we'd have legislation forcing every gas station in the country to have at least one charging station. Sure, they won't be fast chargers, but it would help (and they could still sell their expensive snacks).
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"Man, I hate waiting around for 45 minutes at these gas stations."
"Me too! Boy, this sucks. I'm driving from LA to Bakersfield to visit the parents."
"Bakersfield, huh? You should try out this great restaurant [moocreamery.com] there ..."
Etc., etc.
Re: Not the only problem... (Score:3)
Well the great news is, with an EV you can completely skip your weekly trip to the gas station. That'll save you more time each year than you will spend at fast charging stations on your road trips.
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Maybe you have only lived in urban areas all your life and have never left to drive outside of that across the country?
The majority of land in the US is not urban, there are vast stretches that are very rural or unoccupied at all.
If you take an 8 hour trip almost anywhere, you're bound to travel through some very thinly populated areas in the US.
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The Tesla route planner says her Model S can do it just fine but it will turn a 16 hour drive into a 21 hour one, so we aren't sure which vehicle we will take. But it certainly doesn't come down to a lack of places to charge.
Re: Not the only problem... (Score:3)
I've driven my EV all over Western US and Canada. Lots of wide open spaces. Electricity everywhere.
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Re: Not the only problem... (Score:3)
This is insane. No one would drive without sleep for 6 days out of 10 just to make a 4 day visit. You would also spend about $700 on gas (at $3.00/gal and 30 mpg), so you wouldn't save much vs. airfare. Especially if you value your time at all. Maybe this was a joke post?
Re:Not the only problem... (Score:5, Insightful)
I've been 'in the middle of nowhere' and the power was out in the town. I always try to keep about a 50 mile margin for that reason. Worst case scenario you find a 120v outlet and charge for a number of hours or call a tow truck.
I've also had tires blow out in the middle of nowhere after hours and slept in my regular gas powered car overnight waiting for a tire shop to open.
I've also spent the night in a town when my oil pump broke and they didn't have it in stock anywhere in town and had to overnight it.
I've also had to leave my car overnight in a town when the fuel pump went out.
I've also spent the night in places when an airliner broke down. I've spent the night in places because of railroad tracks getting destroyed. I've spent the night in a place because I arrived after the last bus of the night to the next location had already left. I've slept in airports, cars, train stations, and near bus stops all over the world.
Welcome to traveling. There are often inconveniences due to one issue or another. The inconveniences I've run into driving an EV are slightly different but not worse than my last car.
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Bah! SUV -> EV.
Now I worry that I might have brain worms.
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I'm worried about being in the middle of nowhere and finding a charging station but they are both taken.
A couple of years ago I was in Hope BC, Canada. (Not quite the middle of nowhere, but you can see it from there.) I accidentally found a Tesla supercharging station. I live in a smallish town, (Mission, BC) and I know where there are two public chargers. For the record, I do not own an electric vehicle.
So I think the charging infrastructure is probably a lot more available that you believe. Your mileage may vary. (Pun intended)
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A previous suggestion is interchangeable batteries, pop out the old one put in a new one, and you are ready to go.
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Why on earth do you think that's a solution?
Are you unaware of what the top charging rates currently are? And they won't get worse!
Yours is less of a solution and more a suggestion for how to cause a ton of unnecessary problems.
Re: Not the only problem... (Score:2)
I think that idea died out after a couple of fires.
The extra protection to keep the batteries from getting punctured made swappable batteries non practical.
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I would guess AAA membership is a pretty rare thing for most people to have.
I've never known anyone that had it.
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It (BCAA) is pretty popular around here, especially for those not mechanically inclined. Comes with other benefits as well like cheap insurance, both car (home too) and medical, the medical for traveling. Even a quick run across the border has its dangers. Last I checked, it was about a $100 a year.
Looking, plans go from $80 (5 km tow) -$145 (320 km tow) a year and savings up to $2000 a year on various things from insurance to car repairs.
https://www.bcaa.com/ [bcaa.com]
Re: Not the only problem... (Score:2)
Wow. That must be regional.
I don't have it. But a lot of people I know do.
The rare times I've needed service on the road I've just called and paid whatever, much cheaper than AAA over time, and they take too long to show up to be worth it for a tire change.
I'm baffled that anyone pays for it, especially now that the internet and GPS makes their maps pretty useless, but they are pretty popular.
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And how much does that cost?
You probably have it as a perk on your Amex credit card. AAA membership is $60 per year and they used to offer exactly this service here in WA.
Re:Not the only problem... (Score:4, Informative)
The current deployed EV's are owned by people that find them easy to charge. Either because of infrequent use or because they can charge overnight at home.
This is the low-hanging fruit of EV ownership.
There are a large number of vehicle owners that will not be able to fit that usage (or charging) pattern.
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https://usafacts.org/articles/... [usafacts.org]
.
Re:Not the only problem... (Score:5, Informative)
Bullshit.
I'm already seeing apartment complexes advertising BEV charging stalls as free amenities. The parking decks downtown where all the business are all have charging stalls. The major chain stores all have charging stalls. $10k for a few charging stalls is peanuts to most businesses, and since there's pretty much no maintenance, it's an advertising feature they can use for years with minimal ongoing cost.
Trying to scaremonger about chargers means you're out of touch or a troll. Get with the times, or quit the trolling. Chargers are NOT an issue.
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That's a little optimistic for 100% EV, but presumably *some* infrastructure will also be getting built out.
2019 Numbers:
Average American daily commute: 32 miles round trip
% of population of working age (18-65): 60%
Employment rate (as % of working age pop.): 61% https://tradingeconomics.com/u... [tradingeconomics.com]
Per-capita commuting miles per day:
32miles * 60% * 61%
= 12 miles
Total US 2020 energy consumption: about 3.8 trillion kWh
Per-capita electricity consumption per day:
3.8e12kWh/ 311e6people/365 days
=31kWh per person per
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That's great if:
A) you have somewhere you can park your car to let it charge overnight, lots of people live in apartments so they don't have such facilities.
B) the power grid doesnt shift more towards solar power, which by its very nature is not available overnight - resulting in your night time power becoming more expensive because it has to come from an alternative source.
For someone who has a garage to park/charge a car and usually only drives around locally an EV works out quite well, for other use case
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Solar power can provide enough power to charge virtually all electric vehicles. If you use solar power to charge cars, then you don't need to upgrade electric infrastructure. Based on my calculations, you only need about 3-5 K investment (before subsidy) to charge one car (15K miles/yr). So that is not a big amount.
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So you end up buying *two* batteries - one in your Tesla vehicle, one in your Tesla powerwall. :)
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Re:Not the only problem... (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Not the only problem... (Score:5, Informative)
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Yeah, but we need to fight a culture war so we need to pretend that we'll have to switch to 100% electric by thursday and we won't have the time to incrementally improve anything.
Therefore it's impossible.
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No reason to try to prove a troll wrong. They won't listen anyway.
Most cars are not empty by the end of the day (Score:3)
Most cars are not ised enough during the day to require more than a moderate topping up during the 8+ hours at night. And moving away from ICE will happen gradually so there’s enough time to adapt the grid.
Yours is just such a boring argument to be made over and over again.
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True, most trips ARE in that category.
But most people expect their vehicles to also be immediately able to travel a full 8 hour drive without having to plan, or have a separate vehicle dedicated to just long trips.
Many folks may have only 1 car, and it needs to be able to meet any and all of t
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But most people expect their vehicles to also be immediately able to travel a full 8 hour drive without having to plan, or have a separate vehicle dedicated to just long trips.
No, most people expect that their car can fly and that it won't ever need fuel.
If you're going to make up shit, at least make it funny.
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Doubt it. Even the most optimistic projections of EV adoption have current loads being much lower than peak consumption.
Here's something to consider - not everyone drives hundreds of miles a day. Most people will do less than 100 miles a day.
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Perhaps, but possibly not in the way you are predicting. A $4,000 solar system produces enough power to power your average vehicle for 100km every day. Buying that electricity would cost me $1460 / year. (Buying the fuel costs me $2700 per year now). So I'm far better off not buying the power, and charging it myself.
In fact, if batteries get better, I'm even better off becoming a generator rather than a consumer. Right now
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The stress on the grid argument is bunk. There is plenty of power available at night, when EV charging happens.
Unless you need to charge faster than about 20 miles per hour of charging, an individual charging station is just a cord.
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Well, whenever I want to do a quick trip to drive up to visit my parents, etc...thats about a 400 mile trip.
This isn't uncommon to happen multiple times a year.
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and cheaper (Score:5, Insightful)
to maintain
Wow, I didn't see that coming (Score:2, Informative)
A study commissioned by: "a Brussels-based non-profit organization that campaigns for cleaner transport in Europe"
And performed by: "a leading provider of strategic research on the pathways for the power, transport, industry, buildings and agriculture sectors to adapt to the energy transition"
And reported by: The Guardian
Is bullish on EV's
In other news, water is wet
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I've not found a non-incandescent bulb that really works properly on a dimmer.
Then you're not really looking Donald.
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Re: Wow, I didn't see that coming (Score:3)
Maybe it will be worth the inconvienence (Score:2)
Re:Maybe it will be worth the inconvienence (Score:5, Informative)
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Yes, but fluffernutter lives up on a mountain in the arctic with a gas station in his yard and no electricity. He's made it abundantly clear that on his thousand mile winter trips through the mountains in the wilderness that a BEV won't work for him, thus it's stupid for us to talk about them.
In otherwords, don't feed the troll.
Re:Maybe it will be worth the inconvienence (Score:5, Insightful)
I figure they need to cost around 60% the price of an ICE for the inconveniences to be worth it. Or they could make it last for 1.5 days (of driving) like my phone.
Sounds like you're just repeating things you've heard Sean Hannity say and haven't actually done in any research yourself.
The gas Ford Mustang has a range of 297 miles. The Mustang MachE is 305. What's your next complaint? PS. I've heard every one of Hannity's talking points, and every one of them is BS. So maybe google before wasting my time? Thanks!
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Produce? Maybe. (Score:2)
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You still have to factor the cost of raw materials, with Lithium not getting cheaper or more abundant at any point. So electric cars are unlikely to cost less unless breakthrough battery tech comes on the market.
RTFM? The article addressed just this.
Re: Produce? Maybe. (Score:2)
Chile alone has proven reserves of enough lithium for 100 million electric cars (Tesla Model S). .. letâ(TM)s make it 100kg to make the math easy. That is 100 million electric cars, just from Chileâ(TM)s prime reserves. If we used up all the lithium and refused to recycle .. we can still get lithium from harder to extract reserves. 1 kilogram of Earth
Calculation: Chileâ(TM)s prime ore reserves of 10 million metric tons versus Tesla Model S electric carâ(TM)s lithium usage of about 75kg
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You know the cost of batteries has been dropping exponentially yeah?
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And that ignores all of the new battery tech currently in development and nearing production. Some of which doesn't use lithium.
A lot of the anti-BEV crowd's arguments start as lies and end with stopping all R&D 10 years ago and extrapolating decade old tech 20 years into the future and being shocked that it doesn't work.
/. contradictory stories (Score:5, Insightful)
Can't have it both ways.
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Re:/. contradictory stories (Score:4, Insightful)
So, which is it? battery prices will fall by 58% or your previous article posted YESTERDAY writes "EV's will drive a lithium crunch"?
Can't have it both ways.
The primary driver of battery cell cost is not the price of lithium. However, as time passes, the power density of batteries will increase while production costs marginally increase due to the "lithium crunch". In the future if you produced batteries like we did today, batteries would cost marginally more. However, with predicted improvements, the batteries of tomorrow will have a drastically increased capacity as compared to battery's of today.
To sum it up, more expensive with today's technology, 58% cheaper with tomorrow's technology. You can have it both ways.
Is there a ‘Tipping Point’ for Oil Ref (Score:5, Interesting)
But with respect to the gradual reduction in Internal Combustion Engine vehicles, how we’ll see this play out in the real world? Would we expect the number of gas stations to reduce and/or be replaced by fast-charging stations with cafeterias? Would we expect to see the price of vehicle fuel increase as the fleets of trucks used to transport it from refinery to point of sale reduce due to lack of demand?
Will the refineries themselves have to be modified to change the ratio of the different grades of refined/cracked products?
We’re discussing this as though the demand for EVs will become a major factor but I wonder if it might be the *lack* of demand for, say, fuel, or the spare parts for internal combustion engines/gearboxes, or something else, that takes us to the tipping point?
EV's are cheaper than gas cars as of now (Score:5, Informative)
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That's like saying engines are deferred costs until they crap out. EV batteries last about as long as a gas engine before needing a rebuild.
EVs typically don't need much in the way of brake pads because they can regenerative brake. You only need to brake for emergency stops. It's basically just tires, wiper blades, and maybe HVAC filters.
By the way, don't go to an oil change place that charges $20. Decent oil alone costs more than that. You'll be getting absolute garbage no-name oil, a filter made of cardbo
Maybe that headline is misleading (Score:2)
Climate change will not destroy the middle class. Government Climate Change Laws and Regulations will!
By taxing the hell out of ICE vehicles? (Score:2)
Personally I like bicycles and electric mass transit.