Pentagon Believes Its Precognitive AI Can Predict Events 'Days In Advance' (engadget.com) 93
The Drive reports that US Northern Command recently completed a string of tests for Global Information Dominance Experiments (GIDE), a combination of AI, cloud computing and sensors that could give the Pentagon the ability to predict events "days in advance," according to Command leader General Glen VanHerck. Engadget reports: The machine learning-based system observes changes in raw, real-time data that hint at possible trouble. If satellite imagery shows signs that a rival nation's submarine is preparing to leave port, for instance, the AI could flag that mobilization knowing the vessel will likely leave soon. Military analysts can take hours or even days to comb through this information -- GIDE technology could send an alert within "seconds," VanHerck said.
The most recent dry run, GIDE 3, was the most expansive yet. It saw all 11 US commands and the broader Defense Department use a mix of military and civilian sensors to address scenarios where "contested logistics" (such as communications in the Panama Canal) might pose a problem. The technology involved wasn't strictly new, the General said, but the military "stitched everything together." The platform could be put into real-world use relatively soon. VanHerck believed the military was "ready to field" the software, and could validate it at the next Globally Integrated Exercise in spring 2022.
The most recent dry run, GIDE 3, was the most expansive yet. It saw all 11 US commands and the broader Defense Department use a mix of military and civilian sensors to address scenarios where "contested logistics" (such as communications in the Panama Canal) might pose a problem. The technology involved wasn't strictly new, the General said, but the military "stitched everything together." The platform could be put into real-world use relatively soon. VanHerck believed the military was "ready to field" the software, and could validate it at the next Globally Integrated Exercise in spring 2022.
I predict a huge budget exeedance (Score:2)
Years ahead I can tell you that this will be the headline some day.
Re:I predict a huge budget exeedance (Score:5, Insightful)
Re: I predict a huge budget exeedance (Score:5, Insightful)
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military experts with decades of experience using it to spot well known markers of Militaristic activity.
Like, for example, the collapse of the Soviet Union was predicted? If there's one thing intelligence analysts have shown us over the years it's that they're about as good at predicting significant events as the Psychic Friends Network, and at $3.99(?) a minute they're much better value for money.
There's also a difference between someone predicting something and it being actioned. To take a currently-being-played-out tragedy, it's like the Pentagon said "In Vietnam when we withdrew our troops the country
Re: I predict a huge budget exeedance (Score:5, Insightful)
Like, for example, the collapse of the Soviet Union was predicted? If there's one thing intelligence analysts have shown us over the years it's that they're about as good at predicting significant events as the Psychic Friends Network, and at $3.99(?) a minute they're much better value for money.
This AI isn't going to be able to predict large political trends or unpredictable events but what it can predict is mobilization before it happens. Basically, instead of humans having to spend hours looking at images, this AI can predict new activity to be verified by humans. This should work for common things like a single submarine launch but should also be able to predict a major attack like 25 submarines getting prepared to launch.
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Yup, comparing apples and oranges leads to devastating insights.
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Repeatedly. Based on past experience.
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GIDE predicts there will be at least 3 dupes in the next 24 hours!
Ignores the bueracracy (Score:1, Insightful)
The example is perfect, a submarine moving out.
Pre- AI, the submarine is noted by a low level analyst, who immediately sees the danger and wants to tell the Secretary of the Navy. But he can't. He is only allowed to tell his boss, whom he must spend hours convincing to push it up the chain to HIS boss, whom we will call a Division Chief.
Then, the Division Chief has to be convinced to tell the Secretary. Who spends a day coming up with a response and asks the President to do it. But by this time, that
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Blah Blah Blah AI misinterprets information even a low level analyst would have caught, president acts on false information ruining his reputation on a global scale.
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Basically yes. Otherwise the AI is not worth anything at all and will not be used. Oh, I am sure that the Secretary of Defense will look at it first, just to make sure it is not an obvious error.
But you either trust the software to decide if something is worth the President's time, or you do not use it at all.
It would be like ignoring your own eyes and saying, "Well sure, it LOOKS like a charging Elephant, but maybe I should double check."
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No, the 'AI' will almost certainly go through the same hierarchy. If pruned to the point where it would only flag if it's absolutely positive it warrants Presidential attention, then it would be chock full of false negatives.
It's more about extending the reach of analysts to areas they don't even know they should pay attention to. I wager it'll flag a lot of ultimately uninteresting things and lean on analysts to sort out whether the formerly ignored data should receive renewed attention.
It's not useless if
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I think it's more likely that they can actually process data that before was infeasible.
The don't have an analyst watching every square meter of the earths surface, they have to pick and choose based on available manpower. For given input stream, if no human was available, there wasn't much in traditional algorithms to do with that imagery, so at best they archive and reference if they realize it's a point of interest.
With more algorithmic reach, they can provide some level of analysis to all that collecte
Oh christ (Score:5, Interesting)
No it can't predict the future.
No it isn't magic.
No it won't flag something it's never been trained on.
Yes there will be a shit ton of false alarms.
Is it overall useful? Maybe. But just as one of many tools in the toolbox. It won't be treated that way.
Remember folks. Radar operators at Pearl Harbor saw the Japanese bombers coming in advance. They didn't understand their readings and ignored them.
Re:Oh christ (Score:5, Funny)
No it can't predict the future.
It’s actually really easy to predict the future. The hard part is getting it right.
It's easy to get it right (Score:3)
Re: It's easy to get it right (Score:1)
And to engage in "preemptive strikes".
Don't Worry (Score:2)
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That's the thing, it will be renamed "Legion".
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Or you could actually look up information [cinemablend.com] instead of trying to be a smart ass. You probably even watched it, too.
Re: Oh christ (Score:3)
When it comes to false alarms for the military, they are just training exercises. You could relatively accept a high false-positive rate as long as it entails a low percentage of false-negatives. The guiding limit to this is how many resources are expended on the former but ultimately everyone of those is added value for the experience of your war fighters.
Re: Oh christ (Score:2)
The UFO bullshit sucking the oxygen out of any recent discussion about the military is the answer to your question.
Re:Oh christ (Score:5, Insightful)
The quote is clearly coming from someone who doesn't quite understand the tech (or he's trying to sell it to people who don't understand the tech).
What I suspect is happening is they have a bunch of stuff like satellite footage of subs leaving port, satellite footage that usually doesn't get looked at until days/weeks later when someone says "why didn't we know that sub was about to leave port!".
So they've trained some image recognition on the satellite footage (and other pattern recognition on other sources), so now they analysts are tools which pieces of intel they should analyze.
And if the analyst is told to look at images of that sub getting loaded several days before it set sail... well now you just predicted that "days in advance".
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What part of "there is too much data for human analysts to eyeball" do you not understand?
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What I suspect is happening is they have a bunch of stuff like satellite footage of subs leaving port, satellite footage that usually doesn't get looked at until days/weeks later when someone says "why didn't we know that sub was about to leave port!".
If true, and done correctly, this is a really good use for AI. However, like most AI programs, its abilities are greatly exaggerated and oversold.
It sounds like the military's intelligence gathering is drowning them in data, and they don't know where to focus their attention. Training an AI to sort through the normal data and spot abnormalities should greatly reduce the mental strain on analysts. The humans can then focus their attention on data that has already had a massive reduction in signal to noi
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My AI predicts another Cuban missile crisis coming up.
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Actually, the radar operators reported the sighting to the officer in charge of the radar center. It was Lt Tyler that said "Don't worry about it."
The first link tells the story pretty much as most people know it. The second link gives a better understanding of what happened.
Background info: https://www.dispatch.com/artic... [dispatch.com] https://www.thedailybeast.com/... [thedailybeast.com]
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It gets really interesting when it is predicting not just one sub leaving, but several, and some planes too.
And I guess it is more about warning humans that something looks fishy, as if a large army could assemble in one place soon. Then the humans can investigate, gather more data, take preparations.
Did someone say Minority Report? (Score:3)
Re:Did someone say Minority Report? (Score:5, Funny)
Re: Did someone say Minority Report? (Score:2)
Preemptive strikes are banned in the US. One of the acts of Congress.
Re: Did someone say Minority Report? (Score:2)
Clarification nuclear preemptive strikes..
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I generally agree with you which is why I added the the clarification about preemptive nuclear strikes being banned.
I actually don't think drone strikes fall under the US Patriot Act. I believe the act primarily has to do with more investigation by other agencies but the military is under the command of the POTUS whom authorizes the use of drone strikes.
Drone strikes are terrible but they also now are the primary tool for more "covert" action. I had an uncle who was special forces, I believe a Navy seal but
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This is a reporting mechanism, not a decision mechanism. It merely flags information for further evaluation. Put your imagination back where it belongs.
Faster to start a war (Score:5, Insightful)
GIDE technology could send an alert within "seconds,"
Good. Nothing like being able to start a war faster based on bad intel and bad, impenetrable analysis by AI.
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GIDE technology could send an alert within "seconds,"
Good. Nothing like being able to start a war faster based on bad intel and bad, impenetrable analysis by AI.
Shall we play a game?
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Turn your key, sir! (Score:5, Funny)
Turn your key, sir!
Actually our Intel's been fine all along (Score:2)
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At the time, it was well known that Saddam's government was riddled with Islamic nutjob operatives, these were Daesh in all but name. Had they been allowed to succeed, there would have been Daesh in control of Iraq right now. The saving grace of the Shi'ites in control is that they are as inept as their masters in Tehran.
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just made up whatever [...] they wanted
That's all part of bad intel. And then feeding it into AI, which I doubt has been adequately tested on disinformation, is just a way of washing their hands of responsibility. Much like how AI is used in policing these days.
Didn't I see a movie on this? (Score:1)
Folley (Score:2)
I'm all for technology but if you believe this software can do what they claim then I have a bridge to sell you... and another to sell you tomorrow that just so happens to look the same and be in the same location. Seriously, it's a simple pattern cognition systems that they have given certain tasks to, chained them up and hope that somewhere it didn't mistake innocent but unusual activity for an unfolding plot. Also, I have someone is going to buy this bridge in a few minutes so I can sell it to you righ
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I've got an NFT of that bridge for sale...
It will get some negative reports... (Score:4, Funny)
oh really (Score:3)
> The technology involved wasn't strictly new, the General said, but the military "stitched everything together."
Sure thing, General. Garbage in, garbage out.
W.O.P.R says go to DEFCON 1 (Score:5, Funny)
W.O.P.R says go to DEFCON 1
January 6 (Score:1)
Was it able to predict what happened on January 6?
Re:January 6 (Score:4, Funny)
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Given that this is the Government... (Score:2)
I'll be impressed if the AI can successfully predict events that happened several days in the past. The cost is sure to be exorbitant, though, and perhaps they could just read a newspaper instead. Or Slashdot, if they want news that happened even earlier.
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Hey I think someone just shot a torpedo at us!
Capt. Bart Mancuso:
No sh*t, Buckwheat, now get the hell out of here!
By "AI," we mean stuff like this ... (Score:3)
Hundreds of AI Tools Were Built to Catch Covid. None of Them Helped [slashdot.org]
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...but this is military AI which is totally different. We can make new enemies with accusations and self-fulfill predictions of war with belligerent actions. It's a self-correcting system!
Test it on another planet first (Score:1)
we've had too many close calls already
The investment tool we've all been waiting for. (Score:1)
Apparently no one at the Pentagon (Score:3)
Has seen minority report. If they had, we could skip the waste of money and not try and predict the future.
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The higher you get in any organization the more you believe that if you want something bad enough, it will happen, regardless of whether it is possible.
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complete buillshit. (Score:2)
Get Tom Cruise Ready for "Minority Report" (Score:2)
It needs an AI (Score:2)
They need one to just to make move all the little pieces on their war-game board, that's hardly 'predicting', that's doing your fucking job.
No such thing (Score:2)
"Precognitive AI" is not a thing. Instead, it's what happens when Morty bashes two sci-fi words together and Rick calls him on it.
Hari Seldon, is that you??? (Score:3)
Now to find the Prime Radiant...
More seriously, Starlink? (Score:2)
So Tony Stark is intimately involved with the data availability to the people making decisions on who to proactively kill. That can't be a problem.
Spoofing anyone? (Score:2)
During the Reagan administration, the US would buy up blood supplies all over the world to see how the Soviets would react, and to start a war but be blameless. I think that Caesar came up with that concept first, to draw your enemies into a war, knowing that they might be ill equipped to fight it. You might add in a False Flag operation to get things heated. Leading up to the American Revolutionary War, the Boston Massacre was an attempt to draw young British
Missed it by **that** much (Score:2)
Pentagon is currently on lockdown following report of shooting on bus platform outside
By Barbara Starr and Ellie Kaufman, CNN
Updated 11:56 AM ET, Tue August 3, 2021
Comment (Score:2)
It's tough to make predictions (Score:1)
Minority Report? (Score:1)