Investors Use AI To Analyze CEOs' Language Patterns and Tone (reuters.com) 19
CEOs and other managers are increasingly under the microscope as some investors use artificial intelligence to learn and analyze their language patterns and tone, opening up a new frontier of opportunities to slip up. Reuters reports: In late 2020, according to language pattern software specialist Evan Schnidman, some executives in the IT industry were playing down the possibility of semiconductor chip shortages while discussing supply-chain disruptions. All was fine, they said. Yet the tone of their speech showed high levels of uncertainty, according to an algorithmic analysis designed to spot hidden clues in -- ideally unscripted -- spoken words. "We found that IT sector executives' tone was inconsistent with the positive textual sentiment of their remarks," said Schnidman, who advises two fintech companies behind the analysis.
Within months of the comments, companies including Volkswagen and Ford were warning about a severe shortage of chips hitting output. Share prices in auto and industrial firms fell. IT executives now said there was a supply squeeze. Schnidman holds that computer-driven quant funds accessing scores assigned to the tone of the managers' words, versus scores assigned to the written words, would have been better positioned before the industry turmoil. Some investors nonetheless see the technology -- known as natural language processing (NLP) -- as one new tool to gain an edge over rivals, according to Reuters interviews with 11 fund managers that are using or trialling such systems. They say traditional financial data and corporate statements are so heavily mined nowadays that they offer little value.
Within months of the comments, companies including Volkswagen and Ford were warning about a severe shortage of chips hitting output. Share prices in auto and industrial firms fell. IT executives now said there was a supply squeeze. Schnidman holds that computer-driven quant funds accessing scores assigned to the tone of the managers' words, versus scores assigned to the written words, would have been better positioned before the industry turmoil. Some investors nonetheless see the technology -- known as natural language processing (NLP) -- as one new tool to gain an edge over rivals, according to Reuters interviews with 11 fund managers that are using or trialling such systems. They say traditional financial data and corporate statements are so heavily mined nowadays that they offer little value.
Re: (Score:2)
Except the best CEO's (Score:3)
Re: (Score:2)
If the "normal" used for calibration on this is "lie, lie, lie, lie some more" then it might actually trigger a warning when they speak the truth!
Re: (Score:2)
I have the best lies, believe me! I can lie better and faster than all others; set all kinds of records; and nobody will ever ever forget my grand lies. They change history and trigger really exciting coups that get top ratings. Everyone knows my lies will be talked about for billions and billions of years. They will write Broadway plays and #1 songs about my genius lies. Pinocchio is bigly jealous, except something besides my nose grows. It's Yuuuge down there, and I'm not lying. #MLGA!
Re: (Score:2)
are sociopaths, and lying comes very naturally.
Indeed. Well, not the "best", but those that swim to the top the same way that fecal matter does. Also, why not use a figurehead and keep that person in a delusional state about how things really are.
Hint: (Score:2)
If their lips are moving, they're lying.
Re: (Score:2)
That's politicians. And marketing droids. And HR people. And lawyers.
Nice euphemism (Score:3)
"We found that IT sector executives' tone was inconsistent with the positive textual sentiment of their remarks,"
Translation: They are lying pieces of shit.
Too bad Elizabeth Holmes isn't around anymore (Score:2)
Now that would have been a major AI challenge.
It's like in "Dune" (Score:1)
I mean this is like Bene Gesserit stuff... without the Bene Gesserit
not worth the time or energy (Score:1)
A good CEO get fly to a distant city, get into a limo and before his arrival at the conference, he'll have memorized the speech he was given when he got into the car. The only thing that these people will be able to tell is the mindset of his speechwriter.
Time for phrenology to make a comeback? (Score:2)
Why is AI going to be any more reliable than lie detectors, phrenology, casting runes etc. etc. ?
Re: (Score:2)
Note, I am not sure that AI will work, but there is reason to think so.
Modern so called "lie detectors" are actually stress detectors, ad they work pretty well to detect stress. The problem is that using the devices itself caused stress, let alone the accusations, etc. The problem has always been human interpretation. The guy doing the detecting had to interpret the stress, and figure it out. Studies showed that if you did a comparison method it worked reasonable well. That is, asking did you kill th
Re: (Score:2)
You're right, the "science" here is bogus. As in unproven, not backed up by peer-reviewed research, not reproducible, etc.
For starters, where do you get the training data for something like this? How do you get examples of a wide variety of people (male/female, white/black/asian, young/old, wide awake/ tired, thirsty/ not thirsty, and so forth) telling truth and telling lies? You can't. You most certainly can't get it by telling people to lie to you and then recording them--those aren't real lies.
Had it in 1970's (Score:3)
Back in the late 1970's somebody came on Tom Snyder's Tomorrow show with a voice stress analyzer that was supposed to do this very thing.
One thing I remember: the circuitry was encased in some kind of ceramic or plastic so that anyone trying to tear it down to see how it worked would destroy the circuitry, making analysis impossible. He said that approach was better than a patent, which others would just infringe upon.
Wonder how Musk ranks on these (Score:1)
Let me say I respect Musk for what he is doing in terms of driving various technology forward, although he does seem to have some blind sides as well.
With that said, I wonder if anyone ran whatever he said about self driving tech thru this system and what it showed.
Does it show that he was uncertain or does it make him sound sure (in which case he may have been too optimistic in terms of how fast this tech can be developed) on what he expects to happen with this.
And oh yeah, run all the politican speeches t
Greater need (Score:1)
More than for CEOs, we need this to be applied to politician's speech! (Although where will we find the honest ones to calibrate the system with?)