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Leaked Amazon Memo Warns the Company is Running Out of People To Hire in Its Warehouses (vox.com) 128

Amazon is facing a looming crisis: It could run out of people to hire in its US warehouses by 2024, according to leaked Amazon internal research from mid-2021 that Recode reviewed. If that happens, the online retailer's service quality and growth plans could be at risk, and its e-commerce dominance along with it. From a report: Raising wages and increasing warehouse automation are two of the six "levers" Amazon could pull to delay this labor crisis by a few years, but only a series of sweeping changes to how the company does business and manages its employees will significantly alter the timeline, Amazon staff predicted. "If we continue business as usual, Amazon will deplete the available labor supply in the US network by 2024," the research, which hasn't previously been reported, says.

The report warned that Amazon's labor crisis was especially imminent in a few locales, with internal models showing that the company was expected to exhaust its entire available labor pool in the Phoenix, Arizona, metro area by the end of 2021, and in the Inland Empire region of California, roughly 60 miles east of Los Angeles, by the end of 2022. Amazon's internal report calculated the available pool of workers based on characteristics like income levels and a household's proximity to current or planned Amazon facilities; the pool does not include the entire US adult population.

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Leaked Amazon Memo Warns the Company is Running Out of People To Hire in Its Warehouses

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  • by Anonymous Coward on Friday June 17, 2022 @01:23PM (#62628856)

    Just pay and treat people better

    • by crunchygranola ( 1954152 ) on Friday June 17, 2022 @01:34PM (#62628894)

      From the article:

      Pagan began working at the Amazon delivery hub in October and, within two months, had been promoted to a role on the safety committee for the facility. The new role didn’t come with a pay raise, and is on top of a worker’s core tasks, but Pagan saw it as a stepping stone to an official promotion. But in April, Pagan told Recode, he took two days off to have an infected tooth looked at and ultimately removed.

      The problem, he said, was that he only had seven hours of unpaid time off but ended up missing 20 hours of work; he had enough paid vacation time to cover the absence, but he said the company did not pull from that separate bank of days because Pagan would have had to apply for vacation time in advance. Pagan said he also had a doctor’s note but was told the company did not need to accept it as an excuse, even though he had been excused from work with a doctor’s note previously. He said he worked for another full week without issue, until he showed up one night for his overnight shift and his badge no longer worked. He was eventually told he had been terminated.

      It would take some careful thought to count up all the stupidly abusive practices exhibited in this one vignette.

      One wonders what the other four "levers" TFS mentions are (they are not in the article).

      In addition to just better pay and treatment, allowing the employees have some say in their working conditions would be a major morale enhancer. So Bezos could just knock off the (usually illegal) union busting practices and let the workers unionize as they see fit, if it wants his business to not go into a crisis.

      • Robots baby....Robots.
        • It will be interesting when robots are working 24/7 in the workplace. How will management punish the robots who fail to put in an extra 1 unpaid hour of work on top of their normal 24 hours? How will management convince the robots to consume fewer kW/h of electricity whilst doing the same amount of work? What will happen when a robot needs repairing but the management won't allow the downtime and make the robot tough it out?

          • by k6mfw ( 1182893 )

            How will management punish the robots who fail to put in an extra 1 unpaid hour of work on top of their normal 24 hours?

            Reminds me of Mad Magazine satire of the movie "Camelot" where they altered the story as "Can A Lot.:" In this 1960s story has Camelot canning company president Arthur replaced the workers with robots so no more battling the workers and the union. Robots are overworked and need repair. Arthur figures cheaper to discard the broken robots with new ones. End of story the robots revolt (they were not keen about being disposable) and burn down the canning company.

      • Yeah, I'm going for Funny, so brace yourself. I wouldn't know Funny if it bit me...

        Next Amazon story is about criminals selling hot goods on Amazon. So Amazon should double-cross them, get them arrested and thrown in jail.

        Now back to this story: Just use prison labor for the warehouses. Special ankle bracelets that shock their feet off if they try to leave the prison nee warehouse.

        Heck, Amazon can even use prisoners for delivery work. Just modify the bracelets to fire if they get off the delivery route. Sho

        • by shanen ( 462549 )

          See why I can't do Funny? I forgot to fold it back to the other story.

          The imprisoned thieves have been TRAINED for their new slave (AKA prison) labor for Amazon by being so familiar with the Amazon products they've been stealing! I'm sure they were very clever thieves who focused on stealing the most popular products!

      • It would help if USA implemented basic rights for employees, like most other countries do. Simple things like not being able to instantly terminate employment for no reason.
        If that happened here the Employment Relations Authority would have a field day. Lost wages and a payout for hurt and humiliation would be all but guaranteed.

      • by sjames ( 1099 )

        Apparently, one of the levers is marked "Don't be a nightmarish asshole of a boss", but it's electrified , wrapped with barbed wire, and is in the middle of an unmarked minefield.

      • The problem, he said, was that he only had seven hours of unpaid time off

        Pardon, what the hell? I have never heard of a business requiring you to accumulate ‘unpaid time off’
        Shit happens, problems come up, you tell your boss “I gotta go, don’t pay me while I’m gone.” Accumulating unpaid time off sounds like getting a weekend pass from prison for good behavior. “You done good boy, we gonna let you go home for a couple hours.”

    • "Just pay and treat people better" - Yep, came here to say the same thing. Hell, workers might actually *want* to come and apply. I couldn't imagine working in Bozo's warehouses in their current state. Keep treating your workers poorly and "going postal" is going to be replaced with "going Amazonian".
    • by hazem ( 472289 ) on Friday June 17, 2022 @02:20PM (#62629088) Journal

      I was just in line at the grocery store the other day and the guy in front of me looked really frazzled. He had just finished his shift at the Amazon warehouse and said 50 people walked off their shifts that night.

      I've all but stopped buying from Amazon (I get most of my online stuff over eBay now, often for the same price or a couple dollars more) and will drop Prime as soon as my partner's mom moves back home and we won't need it for the TV shows any more.

      They're having trouble operating because they treat their people like shit and customers are leaving because they treat their people like shit. If only there was just one thing they could do to solve this problem.

      • They're having trouble operating because they treat their people like shit and customers are leaving because they treat their people like shit. If only there was just one thing they could do to solve this problem.

        The problem is not just in their warehouses. I know a few people who have gone to work for the AWS side of the house and the stories I heard are that while they might pay you competitively or a bit better within the industry, they have a bad habit of overworking and burning people out within a couple of years.

      • I really need to stop making amazon my goto. I hate retail so much that choosing amazon seems reasonable. fwiw, I'm not sure US retail treats employees much better
        • by hazem ( 472289 )

          fwiw, I'm not sure US retail treats employees much better

          I have similar concerns... there are several local large chains I avoid (Kroger-owned, for example). But I think systems like eBay are likely to be less-concentrated misery since they're just a marketplace and don't have their own massive warehouses. For example our household buys a lot of boardgames. If I can't get them from the local shop, I'll shop them on eBay, and those are often coming from "local game shops" in some other locality.

          Though you can't always tell from the eBay retailer. My recent bat

          • Sadly a bunch of shit I order on eBay winds up fulfilled by Amazon, someone somewhere gets a low enough price that it's worth it to perform Arbitrage, and Amazon will happily send it anywhere they like if they claim it's a gift.

            But I too use eBay if I want something and can't get it locally or directly.

    • Also immigration.

    • by DrXym ( 126579 )
      And don't be micromanaging assholes with a toxic work environment that motivates people to quit.
    • by memnock ( 466995 )

      Oh, no. People won't be able to get their next day order of books or whatever it is people think Amazon is so essential for. Stop buying stuff from Amazon. Such an abusive company to feed everyone's retail orgasms.

    • Just pay and treat people better

      Amazon has a warehouse in the county where I have my business. They pay more than I do, and they offer better benefits as well.

      They do require that you work hard for it. That is a saving grace for the rest of us employers -those who don't want to work that hard can come slack off for less wages.

  • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Friday June 17, 2022 @01:24PM (#62628860)
    It's because the rate of injury is so high and the work is so brutal people can't physically do that work for very many years no matter how hard they're willing to work.

    They're not running out of workers they're using them up. And they can't count on cheap abusable immigrants because birth rates are down globally and South America and Mexico are the gradually stabilizing and kicking out the American CIA.

    If this keeps up they'll have to do the unthinkable which is treat people humanely.
    • by fuzzyfuzzyfungus ( 1223518 ) on Friday June 17, 2022 @01:39PM (#62628910) Journal
      There is at least one remaining option [unicor.gov] before resorting to such extreme measures.

      Sure, a few people might make noises about having convicted criminals handling their stuff; but if the alternative is paying more or not getting next day delivery with prime they'll suck it up and forget about it soon enough.

      For maximum synergies, of course, the truly optimal dystopian implementation would be for Amazon to work with private correctional services subcontractors(as they currently do with delivery subcontractors, to keep...irregularities...in things like fleet maintenance and traffic safety at arms' length) and then get paid to supply logistics and labor surveillance services as well as gain access to a sizeable workforce for whom fulfillment would be exciting and mandatory.
      • Slave labor then? (Score:4, Informative)

        by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Friday June 17, 2022 @02:44PM (#62629166)
        the problem with prison labor is that it creates incentives to keep those prisons filled. And I could easily see Amazon lobbying for longer and harsher sentences to get cheap workers.

        Now, if you wanna hire ex-cons, go for it. But again, you need to keep an eye out on those incentives. Amazon could easily lobby for more crimes and more arrests too, leading to more ex-cons to hire for cheap. There's a fine line between that, and there was a time in our history when being black was a crime that got you sent to a work camp. John Oliver covered it in his Prison Labor piece.
        • by shanen ( 462549 )

          I should have seen this comment before I tried the joke comment. My version combined it with the later Amazon story about thieves fencing stolen goods using Amazon...

          (Not sure where my attempted joke will appear in the discussion, but I am sure I hope I don't get arrested for the attempt. Attempted humor isn't a crime, is it?)

          • I don't think you can joke about anything anymore not because everyone's gone all woke but because the pro corporate crazies have gone so far off the deep end but it's impossible to tell the difference between someone making a joke for satire and actual, real crazy right wing extremists. Poe's law.
      • by sjames ( 1099 )

        Or building less vanity penis rockets.

    • It's really a bit short sighted even, at least for me personally since I have cut down on my Amazon purchases the last few years primarily because of their labor practices.

      Otherwise really Amazon is actually kinda amazing, it's fast, vast selection, good return policy, but they just can't seem to not be shitty to workers, even amongst the many shitty to worker firms out there. If they treated people better I would buy more, just like I shop at Costco even though Sam's Club is closer to me.

      The conviencence

    • lower the rate targets / stop the same day shipping push and make next day the target

    • I'd guess part of the issue is also the sociopathic practice of automatically terminating the lowest-performing 10% of all their workers annually, a la Jack Welsh's 20-70-10 "vitality curve" model.

      Seems like that would only work if there was plenty of workers to choose from.

  • by enriquevagu ( 1026480 ) on Friday June 17, 2022 @01:25PM (#62628862)

    Amazon’s internal report calculated the available pool of workers based on characteristics like income levels [...]

    I guess Biden has a solution [twitter.com] for them.

  • People don't want to work in hot warehouses in the summer followed around by picking robots while walking miles a day? Color me shocked!

  • by wakeboarder ( 2695839 ) on Friday June 17, 2022 @01:26PM (#62628872)

    I know this from first hand accounts, and it's not just the warehouse jobs either. Well Jeff, either forego buying another mega yacht and pay your people more and let them breathe a bit at work, or hire robots. Because nobody wants to work for amazon for long.

  • Labor shortage? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by denbesten ( 63853 ) on Friday June 17, 2022 @01:32PM (#62628890)

    Is it really a labor shortage if raising pay will solve it? Sound more like an unwillingness to pay what the market demands.

    • Re:Labor shortage? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by muh_freeze_peach ( 9622152 ) on Friday June 17, 2022 @01:35PM (#62628900)
      Yes. There is a shortage of workers who will accept the lower wages.
    • by splutty ( 43475 )

      Wage is only a part of why people don't want to work at Amazon.

    • by HiThere ( 15173 )

      IIUC, what's going on is that you need to be desperate to be willing to TRY working in an Amazon warehouse, and if you do, you won't last long, and your body will end up being destroyed by the effort. So even desperate people with any experience won't take the jobs.

    • Is it really a labor shortage if raising pay will solve it? Sound more like an unwillingness to pay what the market demands.

      Partially true.

      Though here's a question. How much do you make and how much would you need to be paid to work in an Amazon warehouse?

      I'm betting you make quite a bit more than a warehouse worker, possibly multiples more.

      I also suspect you'd actually need a raise for Amazon to lure you to one of their warehouses.

      You can still hire by targeting a different class of worker, but your hiring costs are going start going up a lot as you and other local businesses exhaust the local labour pool for that kind of unski

    • by mjwx ( 966435 )

      Is it really a labor shortage if raising pay will solve it? Sound more like an unwillingness to pay what the market demands.

      It's not a labour shortage, its a serf shortage.

      It's been hitting almost everywhere hard because our cheap labour is either staying home in their own countries or been barred from entering (ahem, the UK and our idiotic Brexit).

  • ...Not enough workers at the pay and working conditions I want to offer.
  • by fahrbot-bot ( 874524 ) on Friday June 17, 2022 @01:50PM (#62628970)

    [Amazon] could run out of people to hire in its US warehouses by 2024, ...

    Reminds me of the Better Off Ted [wikipedia.org] episode Racial Sensitivity [fandom.com] (S1E4) where the company installed a new building automation system that worked by detecting the light reflected off peoples' faces and it didn't see/recognize black people -- causing them to get trapped in rooms/elevators and for the automated water fountains to not work, etc ...

    Initially, executives reminded everyone to "celebrate the fact that it does see Hispanics, Asians, Pacific Islanders and Jews" and the company installed separate manual water fountains labeled, "For Blacks".

    Their first "solution" was to simply hire white people to follow black people and activate things for them, but then HR said that was illegal/discriminatory and the company would then have to hire more black people ... which would require more white people ...

    Finally, Ted and Lem gave a presentation to the executives noting:

    Ted: And so, if the company keeps hiring white people to follow black people to follow white people to follow black people, by...
    Lem: Thursday, June 27, 2013.
    Ted: ...every person on Earth will be working for us. And we don't have the parking for that.

    Veronica then slyly suggested the to board that perhaps it would just be better to go back to the old system.

  • [...] the pool does not include the entire US adult population.

    Well, that sounds like SOMEONE needs to expand the pool, uh? /s
  • by 140Mandak262Jamuna ( 970587 ) on Friday June 17, 2022 @02:03PM (#62629016) Journal
    Very common to see this refrain, "People don't want to work anymore"

    The very same people grumble gas prices are going up, Or restaurants are raising prices, some might even say the Big Oil is price gonging. But they never say, "Gas stations don't want to sell gas anymore". It is taken for granted, gas stations will want to sell, but only at price they want to sell the gas for. The intention for the gas station to sell the gas is never questioned.

    But, when it comes to people, work and wages, we never say, People are raising the wages they will work for, It is always from the employer point of view. If you think it is not worth the trouble to work for the offered wage, your intention to work is questioned.

    The employees are always at a disadvantage, especially at the low end of the wages, when negotiating for the pay. The employer is not going to starve if the employee does not accept the offer. At worst the employer will lose a few dollars, that is all. But the social set up we have is, the employee will starve if no employer offers a living wage. Labor unions, collective bargaining etc does not work. They shakedown wimpy employers like governments or large corporations with monopolies, and fail miserably in protecting other workers.

    The right thing for the government to do is to take threat of starvation or homelessness out of the negotiation. America is a rich nation, and it can afford to give everyone enough money to buy food and rent a basic living space. Do not provide the food nor shelter directly. Just give the money to poor, if they squander it they deserve everything coming to them. Let the freemarket provide the food and shelter at competitive prices. Sensible people who secure food and shelter, negotiate from an equal position, "make the wages worth it, I will work. Else, I will find some other employer, and if no one offers a good wage, I will wait, I wont starve"

    This would be the true free market, since grants to buy food and shelter is guaranteed for all, without any means testing, there will be no minimum wages. Let the free market determine what the wage is. Negotiated between equals. Not between one thinking, "if I dont work at this insulting wages my child will go hungry." and the other thinking, "I don't care, work for this insulting wage or I will find another one who will"

    • I wish I could mod this up. Dang.
    • by Grokew ( 8384065 ) on Friday June 17, 2022 @02:14PM (#62629050)
      America replaced the slaves she lost, with the rest of it's population. She just lie to them, telling them they are living in the best and freest country in the whole world. The sad part is that the lies actually worked.
      • Slavery was a worldwide phenomenon, and still exists in some places to this day. Since slavery in the US was abolished, there have been many boom-and-bust cycles of labor shortages and labor excesses. This labor shortage has nothing to do with the US's dark past of dependance on slavery. The reality is much more simple, based on economics. The pandemic taught many of us that we don't have to put up with the corporate stupidity we have been living with for decades.

        • The "slavery" practiced in the old world was very different from the "slavery" practiced by the New world enslavers.

          The old world slavery was more like "indentured servitude", only their labor is stolen. They remain free to marry, and the servitude does not extend to children etc. It is bad, not something great. To some extent such involuntary servitude exists even today, typically people trapped by loans and usurious interest rates. But it was not as bad as the slavery practiced in the Africa/Caribbean

          • The "slavery" practiced in the old world was very different from the "slavery" practiced by the New world enslavers.

            This is a narrative perpetuated by those who hate the United States, or want to make it look like some kind of pariah. Slavery of all types existed in the old world, and was just as evil as the kind of slavery practiced in the United States. In the "old world" people just found it "normal" to treat people as property, to impregnate them, to split up families, to carry them off to distant countries.

            Here's some good reading about the history of slavery:
            https://restavekfreedom.org/20... [restavekfreedom.org].

            • Is it possible for you to disagree without attributing hatred of America to people who disagree with you?
              • You're right, I shouldn't have assumed that you "hate" America. I did jump to this conclusion because I see this pattern in many countries I've visited, it's very common for people in other nations to resent or hate the United States. It's all too common for people in the US to resent foreigners as well, as demonstrated by the recent rise of anti-immigrant sentiment among Republicans.

                Facts matter. An actual reading of history, such as the article I linked previously, does not bear out the notion that the Un

    • Once labor automation can cover all the jobs that need doing, but that people hate to do, then your plan is perfect.

      Until then, somebody's gotta do the work that nobody wants to do. If that work doesn't get done, the food/clothing/electricity/etc that we need simply won't be available. Paying premium wages for these jobs is unsustainable because there are too many such jobs needed; the net effect will be wild runaway inflation.

      I agree that it sucks that the unemployed starve. I agree that a culture that

      • Sorry - you're saying that if companies like Amazon had to pay a living wage, we'd suddenly lose the ability to produce the basics of survival? If we don't rely on wage slavery to keep people running ragged in warehouses and flipping burgers, then we're going to have to threaten people with guns in order to make socks?

        I don't know bud, that sounds like the kind of argument a few billionaires would make in order to justify scraping 90% off the top, but not a very convincing vision of what actually happens w

      • Until then, somebody's gotta do the work that nobody wants to do. I

        You are not going around the town, offering to buy gasoline at 2 $/gallon and belly aching "no one wants to sell me gasoline!". But you are perfectly happy to say "someone has to suck it up and do the work for unacceptable pay". I don't know where you work, I assume it pays better than 15$/hour. Would you continue to do your work for 30K/year? If you won't work below a certain wage you think is fair, why do you ask someone else to do the

    • "People are raising the wages they will work for"

      Not actually.
      The current wage environment is almost entirely the result of activist court governments raising the local minimum wage to $15/HR, compelling other businesses to match.

      If that went away, it would probably drop back down to the $7-8 it was.

      But let's not kid ourselves that this is the free market.

      • But let's not kid ourselves that this is the free market.

        I'm interested. What do you think is more representative of this mythical "free market", the employees demanding higher wages/benefits today, or the wage suppression that has been occurring over the past four decades?

        • Really? You know that someone not paying you as much as you'd prefer isn't 'wage suppression', right?

          Or are you talking about concerted monopolist behavior, because I'm sure you have EVIDENCE of this, yeah? Something that could be pursued in criminal court?

          If I say "work in my restaurant for $4/hour (ie below min wage) + tips" and someone DOES, THAT'S NOT WAGE SUPPRESSION. That is, literally, the free choice of an adult.

          Or do you believe that people shouldn't be allowed to choose their own jobs?

          Learn som

          • Nah, just wanted to confirm that you are indeed a property-first, people-last kind of person. Thanks. YOLO, I guess.
            • No, but I *am* a logic first, pragmatic realist that understands that need is infinite, but resources aren't.

      • If the alternative is to starve, yes the "free market" will value their labor at 7$ or less per hour. Instead of onerous govt regulation concerning minimum wage, mandating employers to provide healthcare, paid leave, maternity assistance and a host of other things, take it all out. Let it be a pure free market. But it should be a free market with a difference.

        It should be free market between equal participants. All American citizens should be given, by the govt, enough cash to buy food and shelter. Health

    • "Do not provide the food nor shelter directly. Just give the money to poor, if they squander it they deserve everything coming to them."

      This is exactly what the welfare model is in the US, and this is exactly the outcome it produces.

      • The welfare checks do not go far enough and they are means tested. Thus if they get a job, they lose the welfare checks and they are worse off than before.

        Give them welfare checks whether or not they work, whether or not they need. Welfare checks might be gradually reduced, something like 10 or 15 cents per dollar earned and it should take 60K a year or more to be completely off welfare.

        Remember, there will be no minimum wage. Work for 1$ an hour if you think it is worth it, or refuse to work even for 1

      • "Do not provide the food nor shelter directly. Just give the money to poor, if they squander it they deserve everything coming to them."

        This is exactly what the welfare model is in the US, and this is exactly the outcome it produces.

        Yes. Because a portion of the population will still repeat the behaviors that cause them to run out of money for basics. And new people in the population will say "We need a safety net for them." Rinse, repeat.

        Having said that, I also believe part of the solution is this from Mr. Rogers. How to balance people's behaviors is a difficult problem:

        "The money was all appropriated for the top in the hopes that it would trickle down to the needy. Mr. Hoover didn’t know that money trickled up. Give it

    • by labnet ( 457441 )

      You reflect the cultural blindness Americans have.
      There is huge power imbalance between a minimum wage worker and their employers.
      Many of these people have low IQs and barely function in modern society let alone have any bargaining ability.

      That is why almost every other western country provides
      - Decent public health system available to all
      - 4 weeks paid vacation, compulsory superannuation, unfair dismissal laws
      - A social safety net so you don’t have to resort to crime to live.
      - A fair justice system w

    • I've made this pitch to libertarians as a means of maintaining a free market with the least amount of regulation/government intrusion.

      I get met with "SOCIALISM!".

      I swear most of them are just John Birchers LARPing.

    • Nobody wants to work for less than the cost of the gas needed to get to work. Who would have guessed!
    • In order for you to buy food someone has to produce it and get it to market (waves hand, I was a farmer). Same for housing and other rights. The providers will want a living wage, no wait, they can get that sitting their ass. They will want much more then that. What happens if your living wage is then not enough to, well, live on? The goverment will have to give you more, lather, rinse, repeat. Will be entertaining to watch.

      Of course the Progressives who want to do this also want to save the environment

  • Since more immigrants seems to be out for some reason.

  • If it goes like this, they'll invent their own version of the Matrix where their employees are no longer born, they are grown.

  • ...will be the long term solution...

    I mean, they can increase salaries and increase automation as two of the six levers, but in the end,south of the border there are people who are happy and willing to do that job for less, because that job, shitty as it may seem to americans, is actually an improvement over their current conditions... And same as in china, and corea before it, and Japan and taiwan before it, eventualy, labour laws, salaries and working conditions in mexico will slowly but deftly improve...

    • Amazon's whole thing is being fast, if they move most of their warehouses to .mx then they can only be fast to southern border states with them. That's a big part of their business, but not big enough to move "most" of their warehouses. Also, rapid crossings of the border are not guaranteed [theguardian.com].

  • And concluded based on lots of recent reporting that working at amazon is comparable to a 19th century sweat shop. I actually stopped shopping there and deleted prime 2 years ago and never miss it. Plus I save a lot

  • Amazon really needs to focus on automating this. Screw hiring low-end ppl. And considering that all they do is move things, it really is able to be automated.
  • I think the answer is obvious. Amazon can either throw workers a bone and add a few more dollars per hour to their pay, and deal with the impending doom a few years later, or dig down and invest heavily now in 100% automation in warehouses. I think the answer is obvious...

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