Chipmakers Are Flashing More Warnings on the Global Economy (bloomberg.com) 59
Mounting concern over semiconductor demand is sending shudders through North Asia's high-tech exporters, which historically serve as a bellwether for the international economy. From a report: South Korean behemoths Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have signaled plans to dial back investment outlays, while across the East China Sea, the world's biggest contract chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. indicated a similar expectation. Fading tech demand highlights a darkening picture as Russia's war on Ukraine and rising interest rates damp activity. The following charts look at the chip industry and its implications for the world economy.
In recent weeks, major chip manufacturers Micron, Nvidia, Intel and Advanced Micro Devices have warned of weaker export orders. Gartner predicts an abrupt end to one of the industry's biggest boom cycles. The research firm slashed its outlook for revenue growth to just 7.4% in 2022, down from 14% seen three months earlier. Gartner then sees it falling 2.5% in 2023. Memory chips are among the most vulnerable segments in the $500 billion semiconductor market to global economic performance, and Samsung and SK Hyinx' sales of dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, a chip that holds bits of data, are central to Korean trade.
In recent weeks, major chip manufacturers Micron, Nvidia, Intel and Advanced Micro Devices have warned of weaker export orders. Gartner predicts an abrupt end to one of the industry's biggest boom cycles. The research firm slashed its outlook for revenue growth to just 7.4% in 2022, down from 14% seen three months earlier. Gartner then sees it falling 2.5% in 2023. Memory chips are among the most vulnerable segments in the $500 billion semiconductor market to global economic performance, and Samsung and SK Hyinx' sales of dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, a chip that holds bits of data, are central to Korean trade.
What recession? (Score:2, Funny)
Re: What recession? (Score:2, Funny)
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Yeah, never mind that **she** had two children WELL before your silly hate took over and before you knew who **she** was. Boy, you just look like a complete fucking moron. So many things to be a triggered little snowflake over and you choose **her**. What a failure of a human you are.
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Yeah, never mind that **she** had two children WELL before your silly hate took over and before you knew who **she** was.
Uh-huh, sure he did. Show me the picture of when he was pregnant? No such pictures exist.
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Re: What recession? (Score:2, Funny)
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Is that hook in your mouth tasty?
mobilizing industry (Score:3, Funny)
Don't worry, lots of chips will be made when mobilizing for a new world war. More rockets, more fighter jets, more ships.
How will it start? US vs Russia over Ukraine? China vs India over Sri Lanka or shared borders? Blockade and Defense of Taiwan? Lots of choices to choose from.
Not gonna happen (Score:1, Offtopic)
The 1% would really like a recession though to depress wages. They're very upset people across the globe are making more money. That money is theirs. All money is theirs. And the pow
Re: Not gonna happen (Score:5, Informative)
Already the Democrats are losing primaries to Trump backed opponents
All those Democrat Party candidates Trump endorses?
You know, if you want to troll you could at least read 5 minutes on how the US electoral system works ya dum dum.
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None of that tells me you know what primaries are or how they operate, which i understand, you have an adverse relationship with knowledge, it's how you maintain your worldview.
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None of that tells me you know what primaries are or how they operate
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What is hilarious is that Trump himself said that this "Drain the Swamp" thing was not his idea, that he didn't like it, but that it got a great response so he kept it. How can you people not see that this is just another of his scams, like everything he ever did.
He doesn't give a shit about the swamp, he only cares about himself, anyone that doesn't support him is the swamp.
And if you are just trolling, sorry but these days you have to disclaim it, the reality has become way too stupid to tell trolls apart
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Already the Democrats are losing primaries to Trump backed opponents
All those Democrat Party candidates Trump endorses?
Yup. RINO Liz Cheney asked for democrat voters [thenation.com], but ended up losing to the Trump endorsed candidate anyway. Lolz.
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Ah yes, Liz Cheney famous Democrat running in the Democrat primary.
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Ah yes, that famously Democrat Cheney family. Bastion of left wing ideals they are.
Oh yes, she became a Democrat in 1968 because it was "advantageous", there were no other reasons in 1968 that might push a person in that direction.
I kind of envy the fact that you are able to keep yourself in such a safe, comfortable, insulated bubble. Pure snowflake-ism on display.
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Come to think of it, we didn't have the floods or the droughts when the former alleged president was president. Coincidence?
Alexander Vindman was on a panel discussion about the this and that, one fellow asked him if he was worried the former alleged president would destroy the U.S. if he came back. He said no, his reason was that the former alleged president was incompetent.
Someone brought up the the Great Putini's existential angst over NATO and wondered why he didn't appear to have it after the former al
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so long as the adults are in charge.
Everybody wants to be a comedian.
That time passed decades ago.
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no nuclear powers are going to go to war so long as the adults are in charge
Does Putin act like an 'adult' in your view?
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no nuclear powers are going to go to war so long as the adults are in charge.
So you're saying after the mid-terms it's game over?
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The man-made, intentional semiconductor shortage driven by Harvard MBA's railing against making capital investments has resulted in many companies going strictly to Chinese chipmakers who are building out new fabs and increasing the supply of cloned or compatible parts every day.
"Our fab is at 100% capacity. If we build another one, we'll have one at 100% and one at 0%, for an average of 50%. Why would we spend $3B to halve our efficiency and profit????" -- Harvard MBAs
Yes!
Modern finances are a joke (Score:5, Insightful)
Stop looking at growth! Infinite growth is impossible you fucking idiots!
They should be looking at net profits, year-to-year. If it increase or stays the same, then fine it's just business as usual. The only time to panic is when net profits decrease, and the panic has to match the decrease itself.
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Well, infinite growth is quite possible in conjunction with inflation in terms of revenue/profit as measured in currency. In that case, ultimately money is a number, and numbers can keep growing..
So the psychology of expecting infinite growth is among the contributors to a target of at least a little inflation.
Re: Modern finances are a joke (Score:1)
As long as the world isnâ(TM)t as rich as the average American, you can theoretically grow. Europe is a bit more than halfway there, China is hot on its heels but there are entire continents and regions that have quite a bit to grow.
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Not even that, you can always have numerical growth when at some level the number is made up.
The currency strives to "model" an abstract whole bunch of stuff, including actual resources, labor performed, level of technological achievement, the psychology of those participating in the economy, offsets to account for 'lost' money, money locked away in a savigns account that won't be used ever, borrowed money, just everything really.
So ultimately, with enough insight and control, you can generally assure that
It doesn't work like that (Score:3, Interesting)
Those stats are meaningless without putting them into context with inflation. They might even be deeply misleading in determining business as usual or not. High gas prices and "record oil industry profits" are a good example. They are a great talking point for obscuring the fact that demand has slowed dramatically on gas and diesel and fuel price explosion by its very nature is a dang
Maybe they should release new tech (Score:1)
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They've gone far beyond Pravda, and are well into Baghdad Bob [wikipedia.org] territory.
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The problem is that buyers can't afford this shit. That diminishes interest.
The most I've ever spent on a GPU has been about $165. You can't even touch one worth buying for that, new. I recently upgraded my potato to have a used 1070. That was $150! But a new card with better specs than my pre-overclocked (and therefore also binned) card is about $200. (And a used 1080 is $220+.) Inflation is real, but wage increases aren't.
Not a Bellweather This Time (Score:4, Insightful)
Q: When the pandemic hit and demand for work-from-home and home entertainment electronics skyrocketed, did this indicate a booming economy?
A: No.
Q: Now that: the pandemic is under control, people already have their gear for at home, and some people are returning to the office, does this indicate an economy in collapse?
A: No, this is one sector going through an entirely predictable correction.
Q: Do the above answers exclude the possibility of a broad-based economic downturn?
A: No, that is still a possibility.
Do me a favor. The next time we have a shortage of something and you are wondering why the producers of those products don't invest in greater production than is normally required to meet demand, remember this moment.
Re:Not a Bellweather This Time (Score:4, Interesting)
Folks need to ask themselves about the 3x inflation on graphics cards and about cars sitting 85% finished due to not enough chips.
It is as you say but it's also the fact that with all the doom and gloom these "finance" folks are spewing ... of course, folks don't want to spend cash on products that have been marked up 30% just because they could be i.e. vehicles. Or say GPUs that were selling for triple MSRP. Hell, my 2080 TI was selling for as much or more than I paid for it in 2020 ... because manufacturers could not fill the demand for GPUs.
It's a perfect storm, Wall St. scares the shit out of folks that there is a recession coming or ongoing ... typical reaction of layoffs and then they say demand for goods is down. No one is going to spend $800 to $2000 on a GPU if they are anxious about their job. It's a giant circle jerk.
Keep the market starved...? (Score:1)
I wonder if various chip makers are doing this, just to keep the market starved for CPUs. I can see that happening because they are a monopoly on the economy, so they can act like oil/gas producers and keep supplies tight, to make their profits... and spike inflation.
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I wonder if various chip makers are doing this, just to keep the market starved for CPUs
I suspect TSMC is doing it because it's concerned that China will invade Taiwan and capture their plants. Why spend your capital to build more stuff for China to grab from you?
I hear over 90% of the cutting edge chips are manufactured either in Taiwan (mainly by TSMC) or China, and plants finally being started elsewhere won't make their first chips for years. If you think there's a chip shortage now, you'll think it wa
Infinite growth is impossible... (Score:5, Insightful)
This is just a reflection of the global markets in entirety - that it's all based on continuous growth, above all else.
That every quarter can and should deliver more growth and profit than the former.
It's a form of madness.
Consumerism is dying - and it's going to be very painful to experience, in the years ahead.
We've had many eras of recession in the last century, in the "modern world", they all seem to be leading to a point that shows capitalism is not the answer.
That the idea of "infinite growth" is absurd - to what end? What's the point of it? So that the 1% have more wealth and power than the 99%?
What for? What's the actual "end game" here?
There is none, because so much of the world is just spiritually and socially dead, chasing its own tail in a furious cycle of "more, more, more!"
And sadly, we know where that leads - the end of this current civilisation.
I used to scoff at "The end of the world is nigh" concept - the lone nutjob, carrying their sign - now I know it's true.
We're hurtling toward the end game - accelerating toward it - with this bullshit expectation of continuous growth.
Fuck sake, would be nice to just chill and say "Yeah, this is good enough, let's just keep things ticking over."
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Who the fuck is Bernie?
Have you looked at the state of the planet?
Are you aware of the idea of finite resource?
Are you aware that the consumerism we have right now, is like taking a massive dump in our own nest?
Jesus Fucking H Christ, the ignorance of what is happening right under your own nose, is astounding.
Hey, you just shove your head in the sand and live in your own lala land.
Good luck.
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Who is "You guys" ? - are you seeing some kind of imaginary "enemy" here?
What is a "Eurotard?"
I think you exist in an alternative reality to my own.
I'm a free thinker, I don't feel the need to identify myself with any particular group.
I said Consumerism is dying, in the sense of what that word means in _context_ - rampant consumerism, "buy buy buy" - the kind which is really abnormal.
The new phone every year, the new SUV every 2 years, tons of silly little throwaway gadgets and trinkets that entertain for 5
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"Socialism" is why we have nice things. Things like roads, power, Internet, the ability to have food that isn't tainted with crap, clean air, clean water. Even the dumbest farmer knows that if they don't till fields or plant seeds, they won't get a harvest. A farmer that eats their seed corn won't have anything to harvest either. Why is it that one certain political party fails to understand that? If you don't have a strong infrastructure, the country and the people living there will be replaced, perha
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>We're hurtling toward the end game - accelerating toward it - with this bullshit expectation of continuous growth.
Calm down and turn off the TV, things are not all that bad.
Article is about parts for PC market... (Score:1)
meanwhile, for the rest of us designing products that have nothing to do with PCs, we're faced with part lead times of a year or more, and parts suddenly no longer being available because somebody "made a deal" and bought them all, forcing time consuming redesigns. Tough to reconcile that reality with the article's claims.
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Yea, nah (Score:3)
Here is my prediction: Chip makers who scale down investment in a time of global shortages will not be global players in the future semiconductor market.
Shouty McHeadline (Score:4, Insightful)
It depends on what chips are in demand (Score:2)
The drop in demand is likely for leading edge chips that use the latest 7nm and smaller topologies.
Just because people aren't buying the latest laptops and phones doesn't necessarily mean the economy is cratering.