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The Military China United States

Pentagon Elects Not To Shoot Down Chinese Spy Balloon Traveling Over Montana (washingtonpost.com) 209

"A Chinese spy balloon is floating over the continental United States," writes Slashdot reader q4Fry. "As it headed over Montana, 'civilian flights in the area were halted and U.S. military aircraft, including advanced F-22 fighter jets, were put in the air.'" The Washington Post reports: The balloon's flight path takes it over "a number of sensitive sites," the senior [Pentagon] official said, but it appears it does not have the ability collect information that is "over and above" other tools at China's disposal, like low-orbit satellites. Nevertheless, the Pentagon is taking undisclosed "mitigation steps" to prevent Beijing from gathering additional intelligence.

"We put some things on station in the event that a decision was made to bring this down," the official said. "So we wanted to make sure we were coordinating with civil authorities to empty out the airspace around that potential area. But even with those protective measures taken, it was the judgment of our military commanders that we didn't drive the risk down low enough. So we didn't take the shot."
"The US believes Chinese spy satellites in low Earth orbit are capable of offering similar or better intelligence, limiting the value of whatever Beijing can glean from the high-altitude balloon, which is the size of three buses," reports CNN, citing a defense official.

"It does not create significant value added over and above what the PRC is likely able to collect through things like satellites in low Earth orbit," the senior defense official said. Nevertheless, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy called for a briefing of the "Gang of Eight" -- the group of lawmakers charged with reviewing the nation's most sensitive intelligence information.
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Pentagon Elects Not To Shoot Down Chinese Spy Balloon Traveling Over Montana

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  • by istartedi ( 132515 ) on Thursday February 02, 2023 @09:47PM (#63261583) Journal

    It's an intel pin(tilde over, come-on /.)ata. You don't want to risk losing any candy. I bet they're brainstorming ways to bring it back gently, which apparently they don't have otherwise this thing would have been snatched properly. Bonus points to the firm that can whip that up fast, or at the very least plug this loophole.

  • by AlanObject ( 3603453 ) on Thursday February 02, 2023 @09:56PM (#63261599)

    There doesn't seem to be an practical purpose to this thing other than have the U.S. expend a few hundred thousand dollars of jet fuel and other operating costs.

    So I can only conclude that the Pentagon is being trolled. Whomever launched that balloon must be very much enjoying the moment.

    • by MacMann ( 7518492 ) on Friday February 03, 2023 @12:24AM (#63261733)

      Military pilots need a certain minimum number of hours in the air doing certain maneuvers to maintain their skills. The military is burning fuel anyway in maintaining these flight hours. If the cost of the fuel burned is an issue then some accountant can tally up the hours the pilot had in the air on this intercept and count that towards the pilot's training time. Then with that accounting done there is no net impact to the fuel budget.

      I can also conclude that those that launched the balloon are enjoying themselves right now. They got a cheap balloon to get the USAF to burn a lot of expensive fuel. Wars are won by finding tactics that destroy billions of dollars of assets while spending only millions of dollars on weapons to destroy them.

      In Israel they spend just piles of cash on smart missile interceptors to defend against very simple, very cheap, and very dumb rockets launched over the border. If the rocket hits the ground and explodes then they win. If the rocket is destroyed in flight then they still win, because they forced Israel to burn something like $100,000 on a missile launch. What Israel is working on is a directed energy weapon that can destroy the rockets for a few dollars each time it fires. That changes the value of launching any rockets. If it costs $100 to build and launch a rocket but only $1 to destroy it before it can do any damage then launching rockets into Israel is the path to bankruptcy. Could someone stockpile a bunch of rockets and launch so many at once that it overwhelms the system, allowing rockets to hit their target? Sure, but that means if Israel survives the attack then they will build more directed energy defenses so it can't happen again. That makes the tactic even more expensive for the attacker in the future. The goal isn't necessarily to cause death and destruction, but to wear down the enemy over time so that they expend their ability to fight and would be easier to conquer later. Another goal might be to find weaknesses in the defenses so a future attack can be directed to the weak points to gain an advantage. China launching balloons means the USA has to expend resources and gives them information on possible weak points in defenses. The problem for China is that the USA also learns where the weak points are and so can act to fix them. That is unless China exploits the weak points before the USA has time to fix them.

      • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        It definitely won't cost $1 to shoot down a rocket, even with a laser weapon. Even if the electricity costs that much, it needs operators, a support network of radar systems to spot and track the rockets, and a large number of them operating 24/7 to provide coverage. Plus licencing fees to the company that built the thing and wants an alternative revenue stream if it can't sell precision guided missiles.

        They are building it because it might potentially work better than missiles, and because it's a high tech

      • Military pilots need a certain minimum number of hours in the air doing certain maneuvers to maintain their skills. The military is burning fuel anyway in maintaining these flight hours. If the cost of the fuel burned is an issue then some accountant can tally up the hours the pilot had in the air on this intercept and count that towards the pilot's training time. Then with that accounting done there is no net impact to the fuel budget.

        One of the big reasons Russia never achieved air supremacy over Ukraine is despite having way more planes they didn't give their pilots enough flight hours to be effective [businessinsider.com].

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      It's almost certainly a cock-up. The data it can gather is available from spy satellites anyway, there is very little a balloon can add to that. The embarrassment so far is bad enough, but if it bursts and rains debris down on some town, and hands Chinese military equipment to the US, it will be even worse.

      You can bet someone in China is getting a demotion over this.

      Beyond that, China doesn't have much interest in antagonizing the mainland US. Sure, US aircraft near their airspace are going to be intercepte

      • China claims it's a civilian aircraft that got blown off course collecting meteorological data.
        https://www.usatoday.com/story... [usatoday.com]

        Notably, it's not the first time this has happened.

        • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

          That's credible, balloons like are quite common tools for taking measurements at altitude. Checking the payload will confirm.

          I don't know about the US, but they are used widely in Europe, by commercial operators and amateurs. Care needs to be taken to avoid other aircraft, but they are basically in the same category as things like amateur rockets and RC planes. They usually have a radiosonde attached to capture telemetry and help it be found once it comes down.

          Impressive it got that far, they don't usually

  • by Pollux ( 102520 ) <speter@[ ]ata.net.eg ['ted' in gap]> on Thursday February 02, 2023 @10:08PM (#63261611) Journal

    1) Why did they reveal to the public this thing exists?
    2) Why do they trust it's going to not harm our nation or its interests by letting it continue to fly?
    3) Why do they let it continue to fly & gather intelligence on our nation?
    4) Why are they afraid of a balloon crash-landing?
              -- These aren't incredibly massive;
              -- Montana isn't exactly a very populated area;
              -- We have computers that can calculate trajectory pretty accurately to make sure it's not brought down over a populated area.
    5) Why would China float such a conspicuous object over our nation, knowing our technology & capability to spot it?

    Seriously, after all the years China has spent successfully infiltrating our government offices and business and stealing our military and intellectual property secrets, what would they stand to gain floating a balloon through our airspace?

    • by S_Stout ( 2725099 ) on Thursday February 02, 2023 @10:17PM (#63261623)
      To see what we would do. Most times someone enters another airspace it is to check response time.
      • Test response time? With a balloon? These things do not move fast, and they've been tracking it for days.

        The far better question is: Why is the Pentagon splashing this all over the headline? I question those motives far more than the motive of whoever launched a balloon...

    • 1) Why did they reveal to the public this thing exists? 2) Why do they trust it's going to not harm our nation or its interests by letting it continue to fly? 3) Why do they let it continue to fly & gather intelligence on our nation? 4) Why are they afraid of a balloon crash-landing? -- These aren't incredibly massive; -- Montana isn't exactly a very populated area; -- We have computers that can calculate trajectory pretty accurately to make sure it's not brought down over a populated area. 5) Why would China float such a conspicuous object over our nation, knowing our technology & capability to spot it?

      Seriously, after all the years China has spent successfully infiltrating our government offices and business and stealing our military and intellectual property secrets, what would they stand to gain floating a balloon through our airspace?

      My guess is this is a humble brag about how good their US satellite images of China are.

    • Because it ultimately contributes to global stability. We know that they know that we know that they know that we know.... just like when we fly satellites over china, or when we flew the b-2 spyplane over them.

    • This is spot on. It's just a headscratcher all the way.

      "Guys, we have a spy balloon. LAUNCH THE ~__ADVANCED__~ F-22!"

    • by Njovich ( 553857 )

      In international politics, as a default you do reciprocity. So if a Chinese ship shoots at a US ship, you shoot back. Sometimes you can't do the same thing. Like if one side uses chemical weapons, you might hit their airforce with overwhelming force.

      Now if the Pentagon shoots down a Chinese balloon, what will the response be? It could be China shooting down a US spy plane or satellite. It's not worth it for the limited gathering a balloon can do and could lead to further escalation.

      So why are they letting

      • by rossz ( 67331 )

        If it's in US airspace, we are well within our rights to do whatever the hell we want with it. We can shoot it down or try some means of capturing it. It's ours.

        • by Njovich ( 553857 )

          Then China will shoot down some craft over the south china sea as they see it as their airspace. Fully in their rights as they see it.

          • If China (or someone) blocks the South China Sea, they won't be able to get oil from the middle east.

            Predictably a confrontation will arrive in the future, with China trying to push out all non-authorized military ships from the region, but China needs to gain a certain amount of energy independence first.

          • by rossz ( 67331 )

            There's a huge difference between flying over disputed waters and flying over the middle of a country. If we floated a balloon over Beijing, how do you think they would react?

      • Makes me wonder how many objects the U.S. has floating over China. Do unto others...?
    • 1) Why did they reveal to the public this thing exists?

      Because they want more defense spending, so it is in their interest to promote China as the new boogeyman to justify higher spending.

      • Xi is swinging his dick around because of our navy playing in his backyard. It's a symbolic violation of our sovereignty or something or maybe we're supposed to scared. This aught to get our right wing nuts worked up to a full froth.
    • Pretty sure International weather balloons are allowed that this height. After 1883 TV series, lucky the Montana Cattlemen's deputies have not shot it up. If the Chinese were smart, this is probably phase 1 for billboards on balloons to sell stuff. The Americans are probably over-reacting, as surely stealth planes are invisible to a downwards pointed radar reflection.
    • by dirc ( 254647 ) on Friday February 03, 2023 @02:53AM (#63261833) Homepage

      1. Why was it revealed? The balloon was spotted by civilians who posted video and there was a temporary closure of an airport. It's existence became public knowledge (though not the country of origin). This is apparently not the first time this has happened, just the first time it came to public attention.
      2+3+4. Why let it continue to fly and gather intelligence? My guess is that we lack the capability to reliably shoot down a balloon at 85,000 feet. There is probably not enough heat signature or radar return for an air-to-air missile and it is probably above the service ceiling for an interceptor to engage it with guns. Rather than try and fail, we say we could but we don't want to.
      5. Why would China float such a conspicuous object over our nation? Because they can. We used (and probably continue to use) aerial reconnaissance over the Soviet Union, China, North Korea, Cuba, etc. because they could not easily shoot down those planes and drones. The aircraft were conspicuous and the targets of the reconnaissance knew we were overflying them. Why wouldn't China do the same?

      What benefit does a balloon have for reconnaissance over a satellite? It's closer, so imagery and electronic surveillance can be better. It is loitering over the area at 25 km (much closer than the 35,000 km of a geosynchronous satellite).

      In case you are wondering how a balloon can loiter over an area, take a look at the work Google did for Project Loon. They determined that winds at different altitudes had dramatically different directions and speeds, and by ascending and descending they could control the area the balloon stayed in.

      • My guess is that we lack the capability to reliably shoot down a balloon at 85,000 feet.

        "We" shot down a smaller satellite from the deck of a ship floating in the ocean. What makes you think "we" are incapable of shooting down a balloon the size of 3 school buses floating at a mere 85k feet?

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      1) The public had sighted it already.

      2) It doesn't appear to be armed, and can't gather any more data than they can get from satellites anyway.
      2A) It's clearly a screw up on China's end, there is no way this is a serious attempt to harm the US. It was likely never intended to travel to US airspace at all.

      3) See (2), and because it continues to embarrass China and boost the US military's calls for more funding.

      4) Because shooting it down isn't trivial, things can go wrong that makes its landing location hard

    • 1) Why did they reveal to the public this thing exists? 2) Why do they trust it's going to not harm our nation or its interests by letting it continue to fly? 3) Why do they let it continue to fly & gather intelligence on our nation? 4) Why are they afraid of a balloon crash-landing? -- These aren't incredibly massive; -- Montana isn't exactly a very populated area; -- We have computers that can calculate trajectory pretty accurately to make sure it's not brought down over a populated area. 5) Why would China float such a conspicuous object over our nation, knowing our technology & capability to spot it?

      Seriously, after all the years China has spent successfully infiltrating our government offices and business and stealing our military and intellectual property secrets, what would they stand to gain floating a balloon through our airspace?

      1) because the people have cell phones and have been recording it and putting it on twitter and the press picked it up and asked the pentagon about it.
      2) Because they have seen them over other us territories in the past. This is nothing new.
      3) They could also be using the opportunity to gather intelligence about the make up of the equipment on board and therefore shooting it down would negate that opportunity. Also because shooting it down can harm people on the ground so it would have to be properly co

  • Possibilities (Score:4, Insightful)

    by schwit1 ( 797399 ) on Thursday February 02, 2023 @10:14PM (#63261619)

    SIGINT
    See how we'd respond
    Generate fear
    https://www.nationalgeographic... [nationalgeographic.com]

    Has the DOD said the actual altitude?

  • The slow blade penetrates the shield...
    • Yeah, they should have detected and shot this thing down before it even entered our airspace. Now that it's here, it's not safe to do so, but it's also not safe to not do so — assuming it's not carrying a payload is irresponsible.

  • Is it a big red balloon with a yellow star on it? Does it have a big picture of chairman Mao painted on it? Does it blast propaganda? Wtf?

  • The parts in it can all be purchased at Amazon or Newegg for a fraction of the cost of jet fuel, bullets, and/or a missile. It's not like we would be learning of their state secrets because it was all harvested from western countries to begin with. Besides, balloon surveillance sounds like something the characters from the Hundred Acre Wood would come up with.
  • by LostMyBeaver ( 1226054 ) on Thursday February 02, 2023 @11:43PM (#63261715)
    Never would we ever consider spying on them! They probably are planning on using the information they gather to steal agricultural IP from us!
  • I don't recall any other instance of a "balloon-based national security incident." If it is China, they're being more imaginative than I gave them credit for.
    • by tudza ( 842161 )
      Japanese fire balloons during world war 2?
      • Yeah, that happened, but I mostly meant balloons as espionage. Too obvious and too easy to shoot down, so it's kind of fascinating that China would do that. Additionally fascinating that we would choose to let it keep flying. There's some big brains doing some unorthodox thinking here.
    • by pjt33 ( 739471 )

      Maybe Nena [wikipedia.org] was before your time?

  • It is no big deal really. China is just returning some of the classified Biden documents.
  • China probably saw how seriously the US takes its sovereignty and decided to do something a bit beyond walking over the border to see how we'd react - half the country shrugs, the other half huffs, nobody does anything.
  • It's strange, reading all the knee-jerk comments and articles about how this is a threat, a violation of sovereignty, etc, etc.. It's a fricking balloon. They aren't particularly steerable, they can't carry large payloads, they can't hide. They just float, maybe changing their altitude to catch wind currents.

    So it's flying over Montana, where there are some missile silos. Wow. What's it going to see that isn't already perfectly visible to satellites?

    On top of that, what evidence is there that this isn't a

  • âoe Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder said in a statement.

    Ryder declined to say where the balloon came from, but a senior Defense Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive talks, said the Pentagon has âoevery high confidenceâ it belongs to China.âoe

    So all this blaming China for the balloon comes from a senior defense official under condition of anonymity saying that the Pentagon has âoehigh confidenceâ?

    Can journalists just make sh

  • balloon is loaded with paratroopers in oxygen masks, preparing to drop over montana and idaho. Summon the wolverines!
  • It seems unlikely that the balloon is carrying any great conventional or nuclear weapons, but I haven't heard any announcements about what it does have. Bringing it down over the wrong spot could be problematic, and from 60,000 feet it could be difficult to put it down in a precise location - don't forget it's already been reported to have some ability to move under its own power within the jetstream so it might move unpredictably when descending as well.

    The natural reaction is to shoot it down right a
  • One of the excuses for not shooting the damn thing down is that it might provoke China. That might make sense to someone who is both a fool and a coward, but those who are neither recognize that ignoring such provocations only lead to more, whereas a decisive response ends them.

    Floating this balloon over our bases is the provocation. Taking action in response is the opposite of a provocation.

  • Why do they use terms like 'Gang of Eight' () ?
    From wikipedia:

    The Gang of Four (simplified Chinese: ; traditional Chinese: ; pinyin: Sì rén bng) was a Maoist political faction composed of four Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials. They came to prominence during the Cultural Revolution (1966–1976) and were later charged with a series of treasonous crimes. The gang's leading figure was Jiang Qing (Mao Zedong's last wife). The other members were Zhang Chunqiao, Yao Wenyuan, and Wang Hongwen.

  • there is nothing to see of any value in Montana.
  • Can they use a directed EMP to disable the electronics on it? let it float around all it wants but cancel out any benefit it might produce.

  • Not of the stupid balloon, but of the thought that the House gets access to classified material.

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