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The Military United States

Before Chinese Spy Balloon, Classified US Report Highlighted Foreign Aerial Spying (msn.com) 79

Posted by EditorDavid from the eyes-in-the-sky dept.
That Chinese spy balloon floating over the continental U.S. "generated deep concern," reports the New York Times — "in part because it came on the heels of a classified report to Congress that outlined incidents of American adversaries potentially using advanced technology to spy on the country.

"The classified report to Congress last month discussed at least two incidents of a rival power conducting aerial surveillance with what appeared to be unknown cutting-edge technology, according to U.S. officials." While the report did not attribute the incidents to any country, two American officials familiar with the research said the surveillance probably was conducted by China.

The report on what the intelligence agencies call unidentified aerial phenomena focused on several incidents believed to be surveillance. Some of those incidents have involved balloons, while others have involved quadcopter drones.... U.S. defense officials believe China is conducting surveillance of military training grounds and exercises as part of an effort to better understand how America trains its pilots and undertakes complex military operations. The sites where unusual surveillance has occurred include a military base in the United States and a base overseas, officials said. The classified report mentioned Naval Air Station Fallon in Nevada and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni in Japan as sites where foreign surveillance was believed to have occurred, but did not explicitly say China had been behind the actions, a U.S. official said.

Since 2021, the Pentagon has examined 366 incidents that were initially unexplained and said 163 were balloons. A handful of those incidents involved advanced surveillance balloons, according to a U.S. official, but none of them were conducting persistent reconnaissance of the U.S. military bases. (However, spy balloons that the U.S. government immediately identifies are not included in the unidentified aerial phenomenon tracking, according to two U.S. officials.) Because spy balloons are relatively basic collection devices and other balloons have not lingered long over U.S. territory, they previously have not generated much concern with the Pentagon or intelligence agencies, according to two officials.

The surveillance incidents involving advanced technology and described in the classified report were potentially more troubling, involving behaviors and characteristics that could not be explained. Officials said that further investigation was needed but that the incidents could potentially indicate the use of technology that was not fully understood or publicly identified. Of the 171 reports that have not been attributed to balloons, drones or airborne trash, some "appear to have demonstrated unusual flight characteristics or performance capabilities, and require further analysis."
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Before Chinese Spy Balloon, Classified US Report Highlighted Foreign Aerial Spying More

Before Chinese Spy Balloon, Classified US Report Highlighted Foreign Aerial Spying

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  • First of all, I would have taken it down over Montana.

    But if your going to let it drift out to sea, I would have let it go 12 miles and 1 Inch and blow it out of the sky in international waters

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by schwit1 ( 797399 )

      Montana? How about far earlier when it was over the Aleutians.

    • First of all, I would have taken it down over Montana.

      But if your going to let it drift out to sea, I would have let it go 12 miles and 1 Inch and blow it out of the sky in international waters

      Other options:

      Tell China to bring it down, "or we will". Give them a chance to fix their problem.

      Shoot it once or twice with bullets (note: it was at 60K altitude, fighter jets can go as high as 65K) so that it gently wafts down. Then reverse engineer it.

      Shoot it immediately after China said a) it wasn't theirs, or b) it was a civilian balloon.

      Shoot it down and send China a bill for the bullets(*).

      Shoot it down, reverse engineer it, and make public the (redacted) information it was gathering.

      (*) When someon

      • One or two bullets ain't going to cut it. I saw so ethibg about canada shooting down a rogue balloon in 1998 and it supposedly took 1000 20mm rounds

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        China says that the balloon is uncontrolled, so the only way they could have shot it down would be too send military aircraft into US airspace.

        Now it's down in the sea it will be interesting to see what the payload was. If it was just a weather balloon there's a decent chance that the government will just say it sank.

        The idea that it's spying is pretty far fetched. It's not exactly stealthy, easily shot down, and unlikely to offer anything more than the numerous spy satellites that China has in orbit.

        • What data was China collecting from the balloon?

          • Re: (Score:2)

            by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

            How the hell should I know? Presumably basic stuff like temperature, location, altitude etc, but they haven't specified exactly what was in the sensor package AFAIK.

          • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

            by jwhyche ( 6192 )

            What data was China collecting from the balloon?

            Offhand, I would they learned what our response to it would be. I would say based on the time it took to bring it down we responded pretty poorly. It has always been suspected that that Biden would be a poor military leader; a very ineffective one. Well, now we know.

            I suspect that we will learn nothing of value from that balloon other than it was a weather balloon. I also suspect that China will get more brazen and provocative over the next few months.

        • The idea that it's spying is pretty far fetched. It's not exactly stealthy, easily shot down, and unlikely to offer anything more than the numerous spy satellites that China has in orbit.

          Well that's what I thought, it makes no sense, it must be an off-course research balloon.

          But then, nope: "on Friday, the Pentagon press secretary, Air Force Brigadier General Patrick Ryder, held a press briefing where he stated, "We know that it's a surveillance balloon.... We know this is a Chinese balloon and that it

          • Re: (Score:2)

            by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

            Why not? That combined with magic UFO technology is likely to be good for a few hundred billion worth of new toys. Gotta close that balloon gap.

      • Re: (Score:3)

        by gtall ( 79522 )

        Try going several hundred miles an hour and shooting at white stationary dot without running into the thing. Maybe you could show the Navy how, I'm sure they'd listen to you.

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by Anonymous Coward
      shooting it down over international waters would be a breach of international law. Not that the fucked up authoritarian regime in US recognises international law, but still that would be pretty fucked up breach.
    • Except shooting it down over international waters makes it a problem as the US can't just shoot something down if it's not within their borders. It's actually illegal to do that.

    • First of all, I would have taken it down over Montana.

      But if your going to let it drift out to sea, I would have let it go 12 miles and 1 Inch and blow it out of the sky in international waters

      We don't know the full story and probably never will. Yes it was probably spying on U.S. military installations. The flight path took it exactly over several nuclear missile bases. But the balloon in US airspace also presented a golden opportunity to spy on China's collection capabilities. I'm sure the signals-intel people were deeply involved, intercepting and decoding all data transmissions back to China. The other factor is in how to bring the balloon down without disclosing any useful information about

  • They will collect it and dissect it. Signals were probably jammed the entire time it was above anyway.

    • Videos of the shootdown:

      Wide angle (from a phone?) [twitter.com] - You can see the F-22 fire the missile, its contrail disappears, the balloon assembly slumps, and the F-22 flies under it.

      Telephoto closeup [twitter.com] - The AIM-9X striking the craft under the balloon (no fireball or such that high, but the kinetic energy alone... wow.)

  • I absolutely sure it is a regular weather balloon. It looks like alzheimer's disease spreading too fast

  • A white spy baloon (Score:2, Interesting)

    by Teun ( 17872 )
    When you want to do areal spying you generally want to hide it and don't use a bright object like this big white balloon.
    Because it was spotted well before reaching 'interesting' objects I am pretty sure the military made sure nothing of value was found.

    So this looks like either a failed flight of a weather or other scientific balloon or it was a purposely provocation.

    I just saw a close up video of the moment the balloon was hit by the rocket and I believe I saw how the payload was shattered to dust, n

    • I am with you on that as well. Logically, it being a "spy" balloon doesn't make sense. Every developed country has had spy satellites for decades. Maybe I am missing something, but what data could a balloon gather that a satellite can't? (other than being below cloud cover)

      • Maybe I am missing something

        curiosity?
        a search engine?
        time?
        the desire to actually want to know the answer?

        but what data could a balloon gather that a satellite can't?

        Let's ask Google your exact question...
        what data could a balloon gather that a satellite can't? [google.com]

        You're welcome.

    • The payload had cameras, designs that they took from the west.

      The payload probably had radar, from designs that they took from the west.

      The system probably had a navigation and propulsion system, yup. you guessed it. Adapted from western designs.

      Worth recovering and dissecting? Definitely. Any surprising tech on the device? No way. The Chinese aren't gonna put anything in a balloon that they aren't comfortable putting into the hands of their adversary.

    • But I sure hope enough of the wreckage can be recovered to get a clue about the original capabilities.

      Presumably if China wanted you to know about its capabilities, they would release the technical information about the balloon.

  • ...a class of middle schoolers is worried about their science experiment's sudden loss of signal.

  • F-22 records air-to-air kill... (Score:3)

    by thragnet ( 5502618 ) on Saturday February 04, 2023 @06:13PM (#63265563)

    So you're an F-22 driver, and on the side of the fuselage, beneath the canopy, you have what ? Not an Iron Cross, not a swastika, not a hinomaru, not even a Red Star (debatable). I guess it all counts toward retirement.

  • Modern missiles won't lock onto a balloon. Shooting it with 20mm ammo is A) hard cuz it's 20,000 feet above you; and B) those 20mm rounds are gonna come down somewhere, if that somewhere is a pregnant lady in a remote cabin the news media might get interested.

    My guess is a plane who's capabilities we don't know of flew into the balloon, hopefully getting it's remains tangled in itself so it could land with most of the balloon intact behind it.

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by codrus ( 35604 )

      CNN said it was an AIM-9X, the latest version of the sidewinder. So apparently missiles don't have a problem locking onto it. Theres video too.

    • Modern missiles won't lock onto a balloon.

      Maybe they just used an old one. Not like it is going to duck and weave to evade.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        Would be interesting to know what they used. No heat seeking, must have been radar or some other guidance and proximity sense.

        Interesting they used a plane and missile are all. Helicopter with a gun seems like the more obvious choice, especially if you want to try to avoid damaging the payload so you can examine it.

        Maybe they wanted it shredded and at the bottom of the ocean so they don't have to look too closely.

        • Interesting they used a plane and missile are all. Helicopter with a gun seems like the more obvious choice, especially if you want to try to avoid damaging the payload so you can examine it.

          Reports says it was above 60,000 feet. In extended F22 ceiling range, too high for a helicopter.

        • Wikipedia on AIM-9X suggests that it has pilot gaze directed aim capability. I suspect fuze triggering is not relevant when your objective is to kinetically spike a huge balloon. One of my childhood notable moments was seeing a live fire probably first generation Sidewinder demo into parachute dropped flares at a US Navy public event.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Teun ( 17872 )
      That's why the payload was hit, the balloon was collateral damage.
      Also, these jets can fly at the same altitude so no problem aiming at it.

  • Is it really so hard to capture the balloon? Cant we send a Loon balloon, which is navigable and can reach even higher than the Chinese balloon up next to it to grab it?

    This whole thing reeks of incompetence, we were too scared to shoot it down over MONTANA which is empty of anything. The Chinese are prolly laughing their ass off over this.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by znrt ( 2424692 )

      The Chinese are prolly laughing their ass off over this.

      well, i certainly am, and i'm not even chinese!!

      comedy gold, this whole story and the media ripples. :O)

  • Uncontrolled airspace incursion (Score:3)

    by kylef ( 196302 ) on Saturday February 04, 2023 @06:42PM (#63265625)

    Forget about whether or not this is or isn't spying. Even if you take their claims at face value, this balloon would represent airspace incursion by an out-of-control unmanned aircraft. And airspace incursions are something the US military should handle, efficiently and promptly, as a matter of routine. This shouldn't be a giant diplomatic incident or require some great policy analysis to decide to take it down. The message should be plain and simple such as:

    In the interest of the safety and security of people of the USA, we have ended the flight of your out-of-control balloon which had entered US airspace without clearance or authorization. We reserve the right to inspect the wreckage as part of our investigation of this incident. After that investigation is complete, you may make arrangements for the return of the aircraft remains, at your expense, via any US embassy. Sincerely, North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD)

    NORAD almost certainly knew about this balloon heading towards our airspace probably 5 days ago (late Monday or early Tuesday) when it was still many hundreds of miles away from the west coast, which means that authorization to shoot it down would have been requested at virtually the same time. There should have been plenty of time (hours) to take care of this safely and efficiently before it actually entered US territory, but my guess is that the authorization to shoot it down didn't come until much too late... possibly as late as Wednesday, after it had already crossed into inhabited US territory. Hence the reluctance to shoot it down, and hence the uproar.

  • Yup, very American. Wait until they know it's unarmed, that it's leaving, and then shoot it in the back.

    FWIW It's most likely a Chinese version of Google's "Project Loon" that got away, and is very similar to a device found floating over Japan a few years back.

    JP Aerospace know a thing or to about the technology (and hold the airship altitude record) so well worth seeing what JP reckons https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]

    But why tell everyone otherwise? Politics I guess.

  • It's calling the kettle black, how many spy devices will the US have above China. And still no actual proof it is China. To be honest, I'd think it'll rather be some US youtube/tiktok conspiracy nuts that want to see what their own government is up to.
  • before they get inside our borders.

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