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Transportation Earth United States

EPA Said To Propose Rules Meant To Drive Up Electric Car Sales Tenfold (nytimes.com) 179

The Biden administration is planning some of the most stringent auto pollution limits in the world, designed to ensure that all-electric cars make up as much as 67 percent of new passenger vehicles sold in the country by 2032, The New York Times reported, citing two people familiar with the matter. From the report: That would represent a quantum leap for the United States -- where just 5.8 percent of vehicles sold last year were all-electric -- and would exceed President Biden's earlier ambitions to have all-electric cars account for half of those sold in the country by 2030. It would be the federal government's most aggressive climate regulation and would propel the United States to the front of the global effort to slash the greenhouse gases generated by cars, a major driver of climate change. The European Union has already enacted vehicle emissions standards that are expected to phase out the sale of new gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035. Canada and Britain have proposed standards similar to the European model.

At the same time, the proposed regulation would pose a significant challenge for automakers. Nearly every major car company has already invested heavily in electric vehicles, but few have committed to the levels envisioned by the Biden administration. And many have faced supply chain problems that have held up production. Even manufacturers who are enthusiastic about electric models are unsure whether consumers will buy enough of them to make up the majority of new car sales within a decade. The action from the E.P.A. is likely to hearten climate activists, who are angry over the Biden administration's recent decision to approve an enormous oil drilling project on federal land in Alaska. Some inside the administration argue that speeding up a transition to renewable energy, with most Americans driving electric vehicles, would lessen demand for oil drilled in Alaska or elsewhere.

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EPA Said To Propose Rules Meant To Drive Up Electric Car Sales Tenfold

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  • by Teun ( 17872 ) on Monday April 10, 2023 @03:11PM (#63439154)
    A bit of s stretch when the EU is going 100% non CO2 by 2035 and a couple of the main countries go 2030...
    And that's for ALL light vehicles where the US has this strange exception for pick up trucks.
    • Hey there's 195 countries in the world. It still meets the definition of "some of the most stringent" ;-)

    • Pickup trucks, because Yeeeee Haaaaaaawwwwww!
      • Probably a combination of farmers being heavily dependent on them, and the US being the world's largest food exporter both in terms of volume and per-capita.

        • The funny part is that farms are probably the perfect opportunity for electrification of their mobility. The vehicles arenâ(TM)t driving that far, and plugging them in at night would be no big deal. Thanks to that commie plot from the mid 20th century known as rural electrification.

          • Farm vehicles are a terrible choice for EV conversion currently. The towing capacity of EVs is terrible, the range drop-off is extreme with any additional weight.

            I'd also worry a bit about safety in a farm environment... the current crop of battery packs don't seem like they could take a hit, and farm trucks get the shit beat out of them. That may be me blowing that out of proportion, but I've seen enough punctured bodies on trucks to know you couldn't just distribute one large flat pack through the body to

        • Probably a combination of farmers being heavily dependent on them, and the US being the world's largest food exporter both in terms of volume and per-capita.

          You mean TPS Report farmers in suburban business parks?

  • by zenlessyank ( 748553 ) on Monday April 10, 2023 @03:18PM (#63439184)

    Unless you make it illegal to burn gas. Then you will have a different problem.

    • by jpatters ( 883 ) on Monday April 10, 2023 @03:37PM (#63439238)

      There will be a point where the percentage of EVs on the road reaches a critical level where operating gas stations will become less profitable than other uses for the land that gas stations currently occupy. This will result in a vicious cycle (from the point of view of gas hogs I guess) where people on the margin will be more likely to choose an EV for their next vehicle purchase because finding gas stations will become less and less convenient, and the product mix that auto makers offer to the public will trend more to EVs because that is what people will be wanting to buy, and filling stations will become more expensive and less and less convenient to find. "Rural America" will have to figure it the fuck out because you can't run your F150 on Copium. The role of government here is nudging the market to that tipping point.

      • by PPH ( 736903 )

        "Rural America" will have to figure it the fuck out because you can't run your F150 on Copium.

        Ethanol conversion. Farmers will make that ethanol by diverting their produce from the food market to fuel production.

        • by MachineShedFred ( 621896 ) on Monday April 10, 2023 @04:57PM (#63439506) Journal

          Which seems more likely to you:

          A. paying to convert their light-duty vehicles (passenger car, light truck, van, etc.) to run on E100 while having no manufacturer support for it; then also converting acres of land that was producing a crop that could be sold for revenue into crops that can be used as feedstock for ethanol production; then also buying, permitting, installing, inspecting, getting licensure from whatever local regulatory authority that has jurisdiction, and operating the equipment and facilities necessary to create the ethanol (or pay to have it made) and store it on-site;

          or

          B. buy a BEV and $500 charger when the next replacement interval comes around, which carries tax incentives, at their farm which probably already has had reliable electrical infrastructure since the 1930s and doesn't require squat in the way of permitting or hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of dollars of capital cost.

          • by PPH ( 736903 )

            Which seems more likely to you

            A

            They don't have to "pay to convert". It's simple. Most farmers are pretty handy and could do it themselves. All that other stuff about setting up for ethanol production? It's in place already, thanks to E10 gas.

            buy a BEV and $500 charger

            Why don't you put down the price of that BEV? It's not like they throw one in free with every $500 charger.

        • E85 gets shit mileage and burns pretty hot tho, fyi. Good for racing at 100octane.
      • by ukoda ( 537183 ) on Monday April 10, 2023 @03:48PM (#63439290) Homepage
        Yes, as a non-American rural resident I can say that trend has already started. There used to be a gas station at the end of the road on the main highway. It is closed. When I gas up my old ICEV it a 15 minute drive to the currently nearest gas station. For some people now that is an hours drive.

        The funny thing about this argument is I don't know of a rural location without power making BEVs a low hassle choice if living rural. None of this bullshit about only having off street parking. About 50% of my rural neighbors already have atleast one BEV.
      • by dasunt ( 249686 )

        I grew up in a rural area, and most of my family still lives in a rural area.

        About 90% of them would have almost no issue switching to an EV today. All it would take is installing a car charger at home, and I suspect even then, most of them could do 110V charging.

        The few that can't have commercial reasons.

        Mentally, I'm not sure. Trucks are a large part of the rural identity. Will the identity shift as big trucks become more and more costly and inconvenient to use? Or are they going to revolt agai

        • by Corporate Gadfly ( 227676 ) on Monday April 10, 2023 @06:32PM (#63439704)

          About 90% of them would have almost no issue switching to an EV today. All it would take is installing a car charger at home, and I suspect even then, most of them could do 110V charging.

          90% of the folks who will do Level 2 charging, at home, with 220V outlet will not need a "charger".

          Most EVs come with an EVSE (electric vehicle supply equipment), which you can plug into a NEMA 14-50 outlet and get decent charging speed. You need a "charger" installed at home, if you want fancy features, like Time-Of-Use charging (especially if your car doesn't provide scheduled charging features), WiFi control of charging, fancy usage graphs, etc. In some cases, a hard-wired charger installation will also give you extra amperage, beyond the capabilities of the car supplied EVSE.

          • with 220V outlet will not need a "charger".

            "Chargers" come with other benefits. What we will see in the electrification of the household is that what was previously a dumb flow of electrons will start becoming intelligent as people look for solutions that don't require a service upgrade.

            You don't need a charger to charge a car. You need a charger to load balance your house, take advantage of off-peak rates, use your EV as a battery pack for solar panels, or better still turn your EV into a generator to keep the lights on in your house when the power

      • There will be a point where the percentage of EVs on the road reaches a critical level where operating gas stations will become less profitable than other uses for the land that gas stations currently occupy.

        Gas stations make most of their profits selling cigarettes, beer, junk food and what not. In fact, as more gas stations start adding EV chargers, there probably will be more profits to be made in selling snacks and smokes to people looking to kill time while their vehicle sits for a half hour or so.

        At some point it may not be profitable to keep up with the maintenance costs of having fuel tanks in the ground, but it's a safe bet the gas stations themselves will still be there.

    • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Monday April 10, 2023 @04:03PM (#63439360)
      This isn't coming down from the environmentalists. The environmentalists want public transportation not cars. This is being pushed by the car manufacturers. They're the only ones who have the money and resources to really Force this down.

      Rural America has a lot of voting power but that only matters if they're not caught up in cultural war and social issues. If you can distract them with those you can keep them from voting for anything else. And EVs won't become a culture War issue because the driving factor of the culture War is media empires owned by people who are going to benefit financially from the shift to electric vehicles.

      That's the problem with becoming a single issue voter on social issues. You give up pretty much everything else
      • Rural America has a lot of voting power

        Yeah, but they waste that power by electing the same idiots into office again and again.

        • That's just a byproduct. Problem is that they allow themselves to be led by the nose with social issues and moral panics. People claim the left wing in cities does the same thing but the difference is they're hung up on civil rights not moral panics. The difference is civil rights have a material effect on the lives of people while a moral panic has little or no effect.
      • by dgatwood ( 11270 )

        This isn't coming down from the environmentalists. The environmentalists want public transportation not cars.

        I hope they want *electric* public transportation. At this point, non-electric public transportation is worse than driving a single-occupancy car, on average.

        You see, cars have gotten a lot more efficient recently, whereas buses really haven't. A large percentage of cars are either electric or plug-in hybrid these days. When run on battery, these things are incredibly energy-efficient. As a result, a 40-passenger CNG bus doesn't break even compared with single-passenger use of a Tesla Model 3 until it h

        • 25% full is pretty low for many urban areas, considering at peak every seat may be filled and the aisles too.

          That also appears to be masking quite a bit of variety. A natural gas bus, hybrid bus, partially-electric via pantograph, or 30-year old diesel are going to have some pretty different specs. Indeed, the original source for the stats you cite state as much:

          Great care should be taken when comparing modal energy intensity data among modes. Because of the inherent differences among the transportation modes in the nature of services, routes available, and many additional factors, it is not possible to obtain truly comparable national energy intensities among modes. These values are averages, and there is a great deal of variability even within a mode

          https://tedb.ornl.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/TEDB_Ed_40.pdf#page=69 [ornl.gov]

          • by dgatwood ( 11270 )

            25% full is pretty low for many urban areas, considering at peak every seat may be filled and the aisles too.

            Where did that 25% come from? To beat BEV cars, a 40-passenger bus has to be more like 83% full, and a Sprinter van 66% full, and that has to be the average, not just for the busiest leg. So they might be more efficient at peak times, but most of the time, they aren't.

            That also appears to be masking quite a bit of variety. A natural gas bus, hybrid bus, partially-electric via pantograph, or 30-year old diesel are going to have some pretty different specs. Indeed, the original source for the stats you cite state as much:

            Of course, but if ignoring any differences caused by vehicle age, the CO2 emissions between various models of non-electric bus aren't really that big [ucsusa.org]. I mean sure, 17% reduction over the last couple of decades is great, but it pales in comp

  • by fermion ( 181285 ) on Monday April 10, 2023 @03:24PM (#63439202) Homepage Journal
    Unleaded gas was hugely unpopular. It caught on. Fuel efficiency and anti pollution devices were so u popular that a corrupt congress created a new class of vehicles under the guise of protecting farmers. Yet even most SUV are within regulation now.

    Right now the biggest impediment to EV adoption is cost. Tesla promised a model in the low $30k range, but still only sells above 40k. There are a few EV for sale under 30. We have a lot of Trucks above $50.

    I think we are going to see a lot of cost of ownership advantages to EV. I think the aggressive warranties now in place for conventional cars reflect the need to compete against that reality. But what is going to make the change is what always does. Regulation.

    • by dasunt ( 249686 )

      Right now the biggest impediment to EV adoption is cost. Tesla promised a model in the low $30k range, but still only sells above 40k. There are a few EV for sale under 30. We have a lot of Trucks above $50.

      A quick google search shows the Nissan Leaf, the Chevy Bolt EV, and the Chevy Bolt EUV are the only models under $30k.

      On the other hand, the average new vehicle price is almost $50k these days.

      I suspect the biggest problem will be urban. That's where there's more renters, and we aren't set up for g

      • by fermion ( 181285 )
        Same report says average EV price is around $65k, basically the same as the average luxury vehicle. Which is to say the EV market is still the luxury market.
        • > Same report says average EV price is around $65k

          There's a couple of $100K+ models in there skewing that average. Out of 107 vehicles [insideevs.com], 67 models (62%) of them are under $65K.

          From that price list the average price is $70,723 so if we use that as our breakover point, 72 models (67%) are "below average."

          That's because 24 models (22%) are $100K+

          The average price for a new vehicle in 2022 was $48K [coxautoinc.com]. 42 of the 107 models in the above list (39%) are cheaper than that.

          Sure, like-for-like EVs carry a modest premi

      • But urban areas are the best suited for pushing for better public transport. Add to this EV powered delivery services, rental and sharing services and you can still get good mobility without even stressing much the grid.

      • On the other hand, the average new vehicle price is almost $50k these days.

        All that means is that the segment of the population that can afford to buy a new vehicle tend to go for the pricier models. It makes sense when you realize most Americans buy their cars on credit and you're more likely to have excellent credit if you're in a high income bracket in the first place. Folks with lower incomes might love to have a brand new $16k Nissan Versa, but if only B and C lenders want to work with you, the higher interest rates can push even an affordable vehicle out of your budget.

      • They need to invent the intelligent BEV that will self-park, maybe by winching itself up a lamp post and feeding from it like a vampire bat
    • by ukoda ( 537183 )
      There are plenty of cheap BEVs available now. The catch is if you live in the USA, where they are not offered yet. Why waste you time trying to sell them in a country with a bad attitude to BEVs when the rest of world will gladly take every vehicle you make.
      • The first part of your statement is true and a MASSIVE problem. Even Jeep has a nice EV product in the EU -- they don't sell it here. VW doesn't sell the ID3 here. etc.

        But I don't think it's because people are resistant to EVs. It because people will buy the bigger more expensive cars here. Why sell anything where the margin is (making up some numbers here) 5% when you could sell a slightly lower number of cars where the margin is 20%? It just doesn't make sense for a rational company.

        Until there's a

    • For me it is cost, and no place to charge it. I am not sitting in some sketchy parking lot for hours to charge my car.
    • by HBI ( 10338492 ) on Monday April 10, 2023 @04:58PM (#63439510)

      "It caught on" mainly because the government mandated platinum ball filled catalytic converters in all 1976 (I believe, I was young then...) model year cars. They changed the gas pump shape so the old gas pumps wouldn't fit in unleaded cars. People still put the leaded gasoline in the unleaded vehicles, wrecking their catalytic converters for a nice exorbitant replacement of those platinum balls. That's an aside though. My dad did auto claims back then and I got to see some of that crap first hand.

      The real reason unleaded gasoline caught on was that finding an American vehicle that could achieve even 20mpg before 1976 was really, really hard. The oil price shocks and resultant increases in the price of gas, gas lines, even/odd rationing, etc etc meant people got rid of the old boat-shaped sub-15mpg vehicles en masse at roughly the same time. You had a hard time finding them in the aftermarket - no one wanted them. These were the days of Japanese vehicles taking over the US market because they could build a vehicle that achieved 25mpg, and sometimes above that. The US carmakers tried to adapt, dragged ass doing it, and Chrysler almost went under in the late 70s as a result of this, having invested in significant plant to produce land yachts just before the switch.

      The bottom line was that the leaded to unleaded switch was subsumed under a much bigger geopolitical problem. This time, no such luck..

      • "It caught on" mainly because the government mandated platinum ball filled catalytic converters in all 1976

        It caught on because the government mandated a transition to the phase out of lead. Whether people wreaked their cars or not is irrelevant. It was a supply side regulation, not a consumer regulation. You can't put lead in your car if the refineries don't put lead in the gasoline which is what eventually happened through *regulation* not through market economics.

  • According to TFA: "The Biden administration is planning some of the most stringent auto pollution limits in the world, designed to ensure that all-electric cars make up as much as 67 percent of new passenger vehicles sold in the country by 2032, according to two people familiar with the matter."

    I am no math wizard, but that seems like 33% of new sales is anticipated to NOT be EVs. Likely dinosaur-juice-powered cars. You need a gasoline powered truck that can travel 1000 miles on a single tank, uphill, b
  • The real bottlenecks to the adoption of electric vehicles are raw materials (for batteries and motors), new factories (for batteries and cars), and adequate charging stations. These problems will take a number of years to solve.

    It's great that the government wants to support EVs, but it's wishful thinking to believe that new regulations will cause those EVs to magically appear.

  • The summary touches on one key point: supply chain. China is clamping down on rare metal knowledge transfer and export, but there's also the issue of where the electricity for all this is going to come from.

    If the answer is from renewables, then my proposal would be to "build it and they will come." First build the infrastructure for renewables. The electricity won't go to waste. It'll replace coal and gas plants. And when there's no worries about electricity, provide more incentives for people to b
    • "when there's no worries about electricity"

      When it's too cheap to meter?
      Didn't we do that already?

    • China is clamping down on rare metal knowledge transfer and export

      China is not unique in the world with knowledge on how to refine rare earth metals. This isn't some magical high tech industry where knowledge is concentrated in only a few countries in the world. It was pointless posturing by the Chinese government.

      Now if China actually cease export of metals themselves, THEN we'd have a problem.

  • by manu0601 ( 2221348 ) on Monday April 10, 2023 @04:24PM (#63439430)
    Turning 100% EV comes with a few hidden challenges. Where are you going to mine all the necessary metals? How are you going to produce the electricity?
  • I have 3 ICEVs, and I need to budget when to cycle them out so I can get another round of ICEVs before political circumstances make them unobtainable. Based on current usage patterns none of the 3 are EV candidates, but that could change with either technological advancements or significant market manipulation.

  • I can propose something that can help with this:

    A set of laws that sunset in 20 years, which give tax benefits for serial hybrids. This way, while issues are dealt with with batteries and such, stuff like Porche's synthetic gasoline and other innovations can be used to allow a transition without much disruption, especially rural areas which are likely not going to see someone throwing in megawatt-tier wiring systems for a row of Superchargers anytime soon. It isn't perfect, but the perfect is the enemy of

    • >Evolving an engine just to charge a battery bank is still a nascent technology.

      My brother in Christ, motors charging batteries, and those batteries being the main means of power, dates back to world war 1.
  • by DRAGONWEEZEL ( 125809 ) on Monday April 10, 2023 @05:17PM (#63439562) Homepage

    (2014 Nissan Leaf SL Driver)

    This country isn't ready for even a statistically significant bump in electric cars on the road at this time. Charging infrastructure is already in crazy demand in many locations with hour long waits, and worse, halved charge rates due to over provisioning of power during peak times. For my car which should never travel outside a 50 mi. range, no worries, but for people who expect to be able take their cars on a road trip to see Grandma @ thanksgiving, they're going to be in for a rude awakening should the need to charge up mid drive arise.

    Full electrification requires better power distribution, better batteries, better heat pumps, but most of all, way better charging infrastructure! We're getting there, but we're in the infancy of this tech. I'm glad I can charge at home because I absolutely loathe public charging. I had one weekend where 3 places in a row didn't work! I was about 1% from limp mode :( In my opinion, until every gas station is also a powerful electric charging station that can do 80 percent in 10 minutes on most cars, we're just not going to be able to be more than 30% electric in the next 6-7 years.

    Don't get me wrong, I hope this post ages like milk, but we'll see.

    • > 2014 Nissan Leaf SL Driver

      Maybe your charging infrastructure experience is linked to the fact that your vehicle is incompatible with the vast, vast majority of it?

      Not so say charging infrastructure isn't kinda shit, because it's definitely kinda shit, but it feels like maybe your experience isn't a great representation of the average.
      =Smidge=

  • by argStyopa ( 232550 ) on Monday April 10, 2023 @05:39PM (#63439616) Journal

    As far as I'm aware, ev's are in the higher price points.

    What are they selling to the people who can afford only a $14k car?

    Eco evangelists have annihilated the used car market with their games, so what are these people supposed to drive?

    • What are they selling to the people who can afford only a $14k car?

      A bus pass and Uber. You'll own nothing and be happy.

      It was really nice to be part of a generation that was able to buy a brand new set of wheels for less than $16k (a Nissan Versa - that's the cheapest new car according to Google, and it's still a gas burner). Sorry, Gen Z.

      • Rent everything, own nothing is the model all companies are striving for. Why make money once when you can bleed someone until they die? Its a HORRIBLE horrible model, I hate the fact that everyone is jumping on this bandwagon - Even cars (BMW, looking at you.... and the other manufacturers are following along).

        I agree, I feel terrible for the people coming into their own now.

  • by groobly ( 6155920 ) on Tuesday April 11, 2023 @10:58AM (#63441402)

    If you are complaining that you can't afford to buy a house, just wait until the same number of people can't afford to buy a car, any car.

Keep up the good work! But please don't ask me to help.

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