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Why the Early Success of Threads May Crash Into Reality (nytimes.com) 175

Mark Zuckerberg has used Meta's might to push Threads to a fast start -- but that may only work up to a point. Mike Isaac, writing at The New York Times: A big tech company with billions of users introduces a new social network. Leveraging the popularity and scale of its existing products, the company intends to make the new social platform a success. In doing so, it also plans to squash a leading competitor's app. If this sounds like Instagram's new Threads app and its push against its rival Twitter, think again. The year was 2011 and Google had just rolled out a social network called Google+, which was aimed as its "Facebook killer." Google thrust the new site in front of many of its users who relied on its search and other products, expanding Google+ to more than 90 million users within the first year.

But by 2018, Google+ was relegated to the ash heap of history. Despite the internet search giant's enormous audience, its social network failed to catch on as people continued flocking to Facebook -- and later to Instagram and other social apps. In the history of Silicon Valley, big tech companies have often become even bigger tech companies by using their scale as a built-in advantage. But as Google+ shows, bigness alone is no guarantee of winning the fickle and faddish social media market.

This is the challenge that Zuckerberg, the chief executive of Meta, which owns Instagram and Facebook, now faces as he tries to dislodge Twitter and make Threads the prime app for real-time, public conversations. If tech history is any guide, size and scale are solid footholds -- but ultimately can only go so far. What comes next is much harder. Mr. Zuckerberg needs people to be able to find friends and influencers on Threads in the serendipitous and sometimes weird ways that Twitter managed to accomplish. He needs to make sure Threads isn't filled with spam and grifters. He needs people to be patient about app updates that are in the works.

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Why the Early Success of Threads May Crash Into Reality

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  • Instagram (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Archangel Michael ( 180766 ) on Wednesday July 12, 2023 @09:11AM (#63679677) Journal

    Threads isn't anything except an Instagram plugin, that once engaged cannot be revoked. Not really a separate entity at all.

    • I don't have an Insta account but from what I've heard, you can de-activate the Threads profile.

      This certainly lowers the barrier to entry but otoh it requires a separate app and there isn't even a web version. So that's not great.

      We'll have to wait and see, the low barrier will certainly mean high growth early on, but if it sucks, they won't stick around for long.

      • Re: Instagram (Score:5, Insightful)

        by alteran ( 70039 ) on Wednesday July 12, 2023 @10:26AM (#63679915)

        Yeah, I think Meta is underestimating the utility of Twitter links that work over the web. I know Meta wants the full user tracking they get via the app, but the people that really drive Twitter content really want the reach those web links give them. It could be the difference between Threads breaking Twitterâ(TM)s back vs Threads becoming the next Google+.

        • Re: Instagram (Score:5, Insightful)

          by laughingskeptic ( 1004414 ) on Wednesday July 12, 2023 @12:10PM (#63680261)
          Apparently Musk didn't understand the utility of links that work over the web either, because he has broken that. All Twitter links now take you to a sign-in/account creation page if you don't have an account.
        • So here's a problem with their approach:

          1. someone creates an Instagram account a year ago, but never really used it for much
          2. they get a link to something hosted on Instagram, and Instagram requires a login to view it
          3. when they try to log in, they are asked to get some MFA code from their email to verify they are who they say they are
          4. when they go to their email, they never receive the code because their email provider (Google Workspace, i.e. the paid-for gmail) doesn't receive the confirmation email,

    • The lesser of two evils is still vile.
  • bleh (Score:5, Informative)

    by FudRucker ( 866063 ) on Wednesday July 12, 2023 @09:15AM (#63679691)
    shoehorning already subscribed facebook/instagram users into threads is not the same as a whole slew of new users subscribing, keep that on mind when the media sensationalise threads
    • Yep.

      I'm not sure what tactics Threads is using to gain user accounts so fast but I'm betting it involves tricking Instagram users into doing something they'll regret later.

      It won't be because the app is so fucking awesome that it went viral all by itself.

  • Don't forget the censorship.

    Reports I've read about threads seem to indicate that it's got more censorship than twitter pre-musk had. Musk has an explicit plan for making twitter have "trust as a service" (he said that explicitly), so he's focused on accuracy and not censorship. Anyone can say anything, but an outright lie will get a community notes addendum showing people where to go for more information. This has caught a lot of MSM twitter users unawares, which is quite entertaining.

    Note that twitter nev

    • by gtall ( 79522 )

      "but ultimately a company comes from the vision and creativity of its founder" didn't stop MS from infecting damn near everything with their malware.

      • "but ultimately a company comes from the vision and creativity of its founder" didn't stop MS from infecting damn near everything with their malware.

        It didn't stop them because it was the source of their success. Gates/Ballmer/etc. had incredible vision and creativity for business expansion and acquisitions. Not for designing user-beloved software.

        Microsoft products are beloved by PHBs and C-level execs who want safety and stability and "knowns" that all their golf club buddies are also using, without having to shell out the dollar-cost differential for the Apple/Adobe products of those first couple decades.

    • by mobby_6kl ( 668092 ) on Wednesday July 12, 2023 @09:45AM (#63679767)

      Reports I've read about threads seem to indicate that it's got more censorship than twitter pre-musk had. Musk has an explicit plan for making twitter have "trust as a service" (he said that explicitly), so he's focused on accuracy and not censorship. Anyone can say anything, but an outright lie will get a community notes addendum showing people where to go for more information. This has caught a lot of MSM twitter users unawares, which is quite entertaining.

      Note that twitter never turned a profit, and was hemorrhaging money at the time Musk took over - something like losing $1B each month with $4B in cash reserves.

      Twitter has been profitable all but two quarters since 2018: https://www.statista.com/stati... [statista.com]

      How's this for accuracy.

      Also of note, Elon has successfully created many companies based on ideas he has, while Mark has only had one idea and there's evidence that it wasn't his idea to begin with. It's not immediately clear that Mark has the ability to have and develop any new ideas. He can hire people for implementation and management, but ultimately a company comes from the vision and creativity of its founder. Mark Zuckerberg has not shown a lot of creativity in his career.

      And which companies are those?

    • Re: (Score:2, Flamebait)

      Reports I've read about threads seem to indicate that it's got more censorship than twitter pre-musk had. Musk has an explicit plan for making twitter have "trust as a service" (he said that explicitly), so he's focused on accuracy and not censorship. Anyone can say anything, but an outright lie will get a community notes addendum showing people where to go for more information.

      Oh yeah, accuracy and not censorship. https://www.theguardian.com/wo... [theguardian.com]

      Totally not interfering with search results and throttling traffic to people he doesn't like. https://archive.is/oPaN5 [archive.is]

      The jet tracker account is another good one. Apparently his free speech absolutism does have a limit. https://www.theverge.com/2023/... [theverge.com]

    • Musk has an explicit plan for making twitter have "trust as a service" (he said that explicitly), so he's focused on accuracy and not censorship.

      Musk might say that but his actions are another matter. If trust was so important why did he create a subscription to buy verification marks so poorly implemented that fake accounts immediately appeared causing in one case financial harm to a company. The issue with Musk is that he wants HIS version of accuracy and his version of censorship all while pretending that he is in it for the public good.

    • by thomn8r ( 635504 ) on Wednesday July 12, 2023 @10:22AM (#63679903)

      Also of note, Elon has successfully created many companies

      s/created/bought his way into/g

    • by skam240 ( 789197 )

      The big edge Meta has over Twitter is that Threads doesn't have to make money on its own if it has a significantly positive impact on Metas overall lineup where as all Twitter has is Twitter so it's got to make money on its own eventually.

      ...but other than the "it's not Musk!" factor I don't know what the product distinction for threads is. Given the choice of these 2 companies, why would one choose threads over twitter?

      I think Thread's offering of a well curated space for people to talk as opposed to Twitters new policy of mostly just censoring content that personally bothers Musk https://www.theguardian.com/te... [theguardian.com] is it's big selling point. Lots of folks like their social media without

    • by jbengt ( 874751 ) on Wednesday July 12, 2023 @11:55AM (#63680225)

      Note that twitter never turned a profit, and was hemorrhaging money at the time Musk took over - something like losing $1B each month with $4B in cash reserves.

      Twitter hasn't been profitable since 2019, but they were losing nowhere near $1 Billion per month. They had a loss of "only" $221 million for the entire year of 2021. [arstechnica.com]

      Even Musk didn't claim $1 Billion per month:

      When making Twitter's first round of cuts in November, Musk tweeted that "unfortunately there is no choice when the company is losing over $4M/day. [businessinsider.com]"

    • Don't forget the censorship.

      Reports I've read about threads seem to indicate that it's got more censorship than twitter pre-musk had.

      By censorship you mean moderation?

      The one persistent complaint that pre-Musk Twitter had was all the abuse that drove many people (including celebrities) off of the site.

      Given that Musk is taking Twitter in a direction to make the abuse even worse I'd expect Threads to make stronger moderation a selling point.

      Musk has an explicit plan for making twitter have "trust as a service" (he said that explicitly),

      He also had a plan to move everyone to paid subscriptions, we all know how that turned out.

      so he's focused on accuracy and not censorship. Anyone can say anything, but an outright lie will get a community notes addendum showing people where to go for more information.

      So will Twitter still put up notices about COVID disinformation and election conspiracies? Because that seemed

  • Because it was crap compared to other services.

    • FWIW I kinda liked G+. It made it really easy to choose who to see, with different lists, etc.. It had a great browser interface, which is a big plus for me (ha!) Also overall I'm a fan of Twitter.

      I'd say Threads is becoming a bit of a nuisance already, because you can't control who you see. There's just a 'timeline'. Not of who you're following, but of 'everyone'. If you're seeing something you don't want to, your only option really is to 'mute' accounts, which is a crappy way to go about this. But otherwi

  • Google Gave Up (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Jason Earl ( 1894 ) on Wednesday July 12, 2023 @09:38AM (#63679737) Homepage Journal

    Google has a long history of giving up if they don't experience immediate overwhelming success. Google certainly could have afforded to keep Google+ going, and everyone has a Google account. Over time it is almost certain that they would have at least been able to put pressure on Meta in that space. It's not like Meta never makes missteps.

    That's just not what Google did.

    Personally, I think it is likely that Twitter is particularly vulnerable. Investing in Threads definitely seems like a better investment for Meta than Virtual Reality.

  • Musk or Zuck; they are both unpleasant characters who only care about themselves. There seems to be an assumption that only one micro-blogging platform can survive: Twitter or Threads. There might be room for both or maybe another could become dominant. There is no real lock in, nothing to stop people from using more than one. Personally I have no interest in either of them.

  • by LazarusQLong ( 5486838 ) on Wednesday July 12, 2023 @09:44AM (#63679765)
    mostly because Mr. Musk seems happy to institute policies which drive users away. My wife, for example, once a heavy twitter user, has been driven from the site along with all the other people in the online studio she works with... they are in the process of moving to Threads. I imagine many people are upset with Mr. Musks capriciousness as it pertains to policies with Twitter. At least I seem to see in the online news journals many people complaining about his seemingly random assaults on his own product! Of course, I could be looking through my own lens at these sorts of things, but that's why I look at many sources, to try to ensure my view is accurate.
    • by colfer ( 619105 ) on Wednesday July 12, 2023 @09:57AM (#63679813)

      As for having a microblogging service for public announcements, things are getting worse. It seems Twitter now requires all readers to have an account, and Threads requires a phone app, and I think an account. Is anything in the Fediverse or elsewhere available for public announcement microblogging, as it was once called? In other words, a built infrastructure, as opposed to software to run. At a reasonable cost I could see companies paying for it SaaS, but for public agencies procurement is a giant hurdle, and for journalists, for whom Twitter was perfect, demanding money is even more of a problem. The ethics of editorial control and payment are likely too tricky to handle for legit journalism enterprises. On the one hand, paying to publish would go against the grain. On the other hand, advertorials are by ethics walled off from news.

  • by RJFerret ( 1279530 ) on Wednesday July 12, 2023 @09:54AM (#63679799)

    G+ was loved by it's users, offered better visual functionality for artists and photographers than others at the time, and had engaging discussion. It didn't take down Farcebook because it was a different platform for a different purpose.

    It also was something new/different at a time nobody was looking for a change.

    As much as I loathe Facebork and that company, Threads is hitting at the right time, and has an already related user base in Insta. If FB was going through what Twitter currently is, and most were looking to jump ship when G+ came along, it'd be a no brainer. There's a dearth of platforms right when folks are seeking a new platform. The only way Threads would've been timed better was a bit earlier and not during the summer online usage slump.

    Google also failed to understand how to capitalize on G+ as a product. They were focused on ID but imagine if they'd used all those conversations and images for generative AI? Treated it like gmail to offer marketing demographics to their advertisers? Instead of seeking to compete with others, they could've grown themselves.

    The situation though, is apples and oranges. This is more Amazon coming along with Sears missing the boat.

  • by dark.nebulae ( 3950923 ) on Wednesday July 12, 2023 @09:55AM (#63679805)

    I hope that Threads does kill off Twitter, and that Meta is then the only player in the social networking space.

    Why? Because that will make them subject of anti-trust and will force the breakup of the company into smaller pieces.

    Meta has its fingers in so many pies, it has so many sources now to gather information from our daily lives, either directly or indirectly... I would welcome them becoming dominant and then subject to anti-trust breakup if only to disrupt the single company from collecting all of that data in one place from all sources.

  • Most people don't like seeing literal nazis and white nationalists in their feeds. When you have right wing groups literally quoting Hitler in their newsletter you know the mask is off. https://apnews.com/article/mom... [apnews.com]

    You know we did fight a war over these people.

    • by PPH ( 736903 )
      A personal freedom of association is a protected civil right. You don't have to go someplace where Nazis hang out. But for a business, the right to exclude certain people is less clear cut. I may be able to refuse to make you a wedding cake based on my religious beliefs. But not much beyond that is protected. And since Meta/Twitter are clearly businesses, they might not have the ability to exclude groups they don't like.
    • Hey, I can quote Hitler and appeal to the leftists. Proof:

      "God-Damned Russians!"

  • Google+ was an existing tech company attempting to get into the social media space

    Threads is a social media company attempting to replace a hole in the marked caused by the degradation of Twitter.
  • When Google rolled out Google+, Facebook wasn't in the middle of a massive implosion caused by a reckless and impulsive CEO. Twitter is.

  • I’ve been using Twitter for years. Sure, it’s a waste of time, but minute-for-minute it’s way more entertaining than TV. It has even stronger network effects than Facebook, because FB is just where your friends and family are (and even then, it’s starting to become an older crowd), but Twitter is full of people who are trying to be witty, informative, or otherwise entertaining. The ones that remain in your feed after blocking and unfollowing have tended to prove themselves good enter
  • "Publish or Perish" exists in the news world, so junk suppositions get published.

    The author likely knows that "one possible things happened in the past, so it can happen again" is garbage logic.

    Google Pages failed because Facebook was still healthy

    Twitter is sick and weak

  • by Opportunist ( 166417 ) on Wednesday July 12, 2023 @11:15AM (#63680067)

    That was something a lot of "WOW-Killers" had to learn, that's something Google learned with Google+, that's something Zuck will learn with his threadbare crap.

    If you build an identical clone, you will not get any users. Those that want this already have what they want in the original and won't jump ship for yours because they'd essentially have to start over while they already have what they want where they are. And those that turned away from it in disgust will not jump onto yours for being the exactly same experience.

    The only way you can have success is by finding out what people hate about the service (preferably the people using it right now) and do THAT.

    • That was something a lot of "WOW-Killers" had to learn, that's something Google learned with Google+, that's something Zuck will learn with his threadbare crap.

      If you build an identical clone, you will not get any users. Those that want this already have what they want in the original and won't jump ship for yours because they'd essentially have to start over while they already have what they want where they are. And those that turned away from it in disgust will not jump onto yours for being the exactly same experience.

      The only way you can have success is by finding out what people hate about the service (preferably the people using it right now) and do THAT.

      Well Zuckerberg killed MySpace.

      He did it by making Facebook less icky than MySpace which was full of teenagers and rumours of predators.

      It's the same thing he's doing with Threads, upping the moderation to get rid of the abuse that was bad even pre-Musk.

      The other big mistake that Google made with Google+ is they went after FB when FB was at its peak. Twitter on the other hand is as weak as it's ever been. People have not only been wanting Twitter to die for months but multiple companies have popped up to jo

  • First, Google wasn't a social media company, so although they had lots of users, those users weren't already connecting socially through Google. That made G+ a lot less compelling. But Facebook users are already making those social connections on the platform, so something Twitter-like is a natural extension of the FB ecosystem.

    Second, Google often doesn't commit to its products and do whatever it takes to make them succeed. They're legendary for tossing stuff out there half-heartedly, often then abandoning

  • It's now the merry month of "may". Wake me when it's over.

  • To be fair of course. Google was great because of its free products and then later on its enterprise services:

    * Its search engine / Ads
    * Gmail
    * Google Maps
    * YouTube
    * Google Docs / Business Suite
    * Android
    * GCP (Google Cloud Platform)

    Google has axed numerous applications, services, and tools that have been lost into obscurity. It's sitting on 100+ Billion in cash and doesn't know what to do with any of it. But I don't think anyone can applaud Google for being visually stunning or intuitive in any of its ap

  • by VoodooCryptologist ( 7614904 ) on Wednesday July 12, 2023 @04:12PM (#63681011)

    1. How many users signed up just for Threads? It's linked to Instagram, so I imagine that many people added Threads to their existing Instagram account because it's one more thing to add. It doesn't necessarily mean they are going to be active or useful Threads users.

    2. How many users left Twitter for Threads? I see Twitter users making Threads accounts (possibly because they already have Meta stuff and it's easy to do it), but it's not a "Twitter killer" unless it actually draws users away from using Twitter.

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