Will the US-China Competition to Field Military Drone Swarms Spark a Global Arms Race? (apnews.com) 28
The Associated Press reports:
As their rivalry intensifies, U.S. and Chinese military planners are gearing up for a new kind of warfare in which squadrons of air and sea drones equipped with artificial intelligence work together like swarms of bees to overwhelm an enemy. The planners envision a scenario in which hundreds, even thousands of the machines engage in coordinated battle. A single controller might oversee dozens of drones. Some would scout, others attack. Some would be able to pivot to new objectives in the middle of a mission based on prior programming rather than a direct order.
The world's only AI superpowers are engaged in an arms race for swarming drones that is reminiscent of the Cold War, except drone technology will be far more difficult to contain than nuclear weapons. Because software drives the drones' swarming abilities, it could be relatively easy and cheap for rogue nations and militants to acquire their own fleets of killer robots. The Pentagon is pushing urgent development of inexpensive, expendable drones as a deterrent against China acting on its territorial claim on Taiwan. Washington says it has no choice but to keep pace with Beijing. Chinese officials say AI-enabled weapons are inevitable so they, too, must have them.
The unchecked spread of swarm technology "could lead to more instability and conflict around the world," said Margarita Konaev, an analyst with Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology.
"A 2023 Georgetown study of AI-related military spending found that more than a third of known contracts issued by both U.S. and Chinese military services over eight months in 2020 were for intelligent uncrewed systems..." according to the article.
"Military analysts, drone makers and AI researchers don't expect fully capable, combat-ready swarms to be fielded for five years or so, though big breakthroughs could happen sooner."
The world's only AI superpowers are engaged in an arms race for swarming drones that is reminiscent of the Cold War, except drone technology will be far more difficult to contain than nuclear weapons. Because software drives the drones' swarming abilities, it could be relatively easy and cheap for rogue nations and militants to acquire their own fleets of killer robots. The Pentagon is pushing urgent development of inexpensive, expendable drones as a deterrent against China acting on its territorial claim on Taiwan. Washington says it has no choice but to keep pace with Beijing. Chinese officials say AI-enabled weapons are inevitable so they, too, must have them.
The unchecked spread of swarm technology "could lead to more instability and conflict around the world," said Margarita Konaev, an analyst with Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology.
"A 2023 Georgetown study of AI-related military spending found that more than a third of known contracts issued by both U.S. and Chinese military services over eight months in 2020 were for intelligent uncrewed systems..." according to the article.
"Military analysts, drone makers and AI researchers don't expect fully capable, combat-ready swarms to be fielded for five years or so, though big breakthroughs could happen sooner."
Nope (Score:3, Insightful)
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and now that you are all out of drones. what will you do against the extra ammo.
Ukraine (Score:5, Insightful)
It's an interesting situation in Ukraine.
Ukraine has essentially run out of artillery shells and anti-missiles. That's not an absolute measure, but effectively Russia is missile striking all the infrastructure in Ukraine, notably power generation facilities, with impunity.
The Russians are also slowly taking territory. You might have heard about the recent fall of Avdiivka [wikipedia.org], which is officially a win for Russia except that Ukraine made it a very expensive piece of real estate. I've heard one estimate that Russian casualties are 10:1 against Ukrainian, so it's really a win for Ukraine. Except that Russia has so many people it can throw into the war effort it might not make a difference.
On the flip side, Ukraine has damaged several oil processing facilities inside Russia 200 miles East of Moscow. Two soldiers carrying small drones in a backpack can hike across the border, deliver a small munition (probably more than a hand grenade but not much more) right to the vertical distillation column using video feedback for targeting, and the distillation column is an integral part of the process and the most difficult piece to repair.
Ukraine has taken some 14% of Russian oil processing offline using this method, which is a huge bite out of Russia's federal budget. Also, Russia now has to allocate resources to protecting vital infrastructure all over Russia.
Ukraine has also had good luck with water-based drones: put a bunch of munitions on a motorboat with a GPS and video feedback for targeting, paint it black and send it at night, several hundred miles with pinpoint precision to sink a warship. Russia discovered experimentally that all of their anti-whatever guns are intended for incoming missiles and other ships, and so they can't point down low enough to hit a small motorboat within striking range. You have to get the crew to shoot at the drone from the deck with rifles and hope you hit something important.
Ukraine has basically kicked the black sea fleet out of the western half of the black sea using this method.
Of note, these drones are being built in Ukraine by Ukrainians. They're not donations from other governments.
Ukraine now has lots and lots of military observers from various countries across the world looking in on the military aspects of drone warfare, which is a completely new tactic for war. If it takes an anti-missile costing $100,000 to take out a drone costing $1,000, that's an obvious advantage to the side using drones.
And no one has tried drone swarms yet either, and I think that would be the next logical step. Exhaust your opponent's anti-missile shield over the city with one wave of cheap drones, then send in the second wave with incendiary munitions to set everything on fire all at once.
And all for the price of 1 anti-missile missile.
Re:Ukraine (Score:5, Interesting)
Old school flak systems should be able to stop drones. They're generally slow and noisy, both in terms of radar cross section and audible signatures. Their only advantages are being cheap and flying low, making them vulnerable to all kinds of equally cheap weapons.
Anyone using sophisticated anti-missile defense systems to stop drones is wasting high dollar tech.
Re:Ukraine (Score:5, Insightful)
Old school flak systems should be able to stop drones.
Ukraine has these, but not enough. The German Gepard [wikipedia.org] are literally, flakpanzer. Unfortunately, Germany has not provided nearly enough to Ukraine for effective anti-drone coverage.
They're generally slow and noisy, both in terms of radar cross section and audible signatures.
Slow, maybe. Noisy, definitely. Radar cross-section, somewhat. Ukraine is finding Russian drones being made out of radar resistant materials (i.e. carbon fiber) as well as being painted black [yahoo.com].
Anyone using sophisticated anti-missile defense systems to stop drones is wasting high dollar tech.
Not if its trying to hit a power station or ammo dump or military target. A Stinger taking down such a drone just saved you from losing that target. This same statement was made when Stinger, or Iglas, were shown taking down Russian surveillance drones. The drone might cost less than $1,000 dollars compared to the Stinger/Igla, but if that drone is being used to spot troop concentrations or high value targets, you better believe it's a good use of that missile.
As for the OPs comments about taking out Russian oil refineries with people hand carrying drones, perhaps, but in most cases it is the Ukrainian version of the Shahed which is being used. In fact, Ukraine is converting ultra-light planes into drones [forbes.com], one of which successfully struck a Russain factory producing drones [bbc.com]. What makes this attack, and others, so fascinating, is this plane flew 600 miles into Russian air space and hit its target. Apparently, at no point did Russian air defense pick this up and take it out.
Further, the Russian Black Sea Fleet has lost 1/3 of its ships and is not just out of the western half of the Black Sea, but effectively neutralized in almost the entirety of the Black Sea. They rarely leave port at this point and when they do, have a heavy aerial presence to watch for Ukrainian drones. I believe all but three landing ships (possibly two) are left out of a pre-war thirteen. And yes, the U.S. and NATO are taking note [stripes.com] at the highly effective use of drones to take out an enemy navy..
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Stingers are cheaper than Patriot systems so that's a step in the right direction.
Re:Ukraine (Score:5, Interesting)
Flak will stop Fixed wing type of drone flying at ~hundred meters altitude. It wont do anything against drone programmed to hug the ground at 2-3 meters.
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At that elevation, you can probably just take em with birdshot.
Pull!
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The lethal range of a grenade dropping drone is considerably greater than the effective range of bird shot. I wouldn't want to be standing out in a battlefield with grandpa's double barrel to protect me.
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This isn't something new to the US military, I can tell you that we've been thinking about drone attacks and drone defense for many years now. The drone swarm is an obvious next step past the UAVs we've been piloting for decades now.
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. If it takes an anti-missile costing $100,000 to take out a drone costing $1,000, that's an obvious advantage to the side using drones.
It's also a temporary problem. Short-range anti-drone missiles should cost roughly the same amount as drones.
AI based military may well be the "Fermi Filter" (Score:4, Interesting)
Somehow it seems that the branch of evolution leading to intelligence necessarily reaches a point where the competition for the "survival of the fittest" is no longer fought out by the intelligent lifeforms themselves, but only by their products.
Re:AI based military may well be the "Fermi Filter (Score:4, Insightful)
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Re: AI based military may well be the "Fermi Filte (Score:2)
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Favorite part....
"We retreated to the bunker. - How did you fight back? - We reinvented an early weapon. - The sword? - The autonomous mobile sword. The screamer. Save it. They don't eat rats, do they? We're not sure. They're scavengers and they learn. They use everything. Rotting meat gives off methane gas for fuel. Maybe eyeball jelly makes good blade wax. Are they machines? Are they alive? l don't understand... l don't have the
It's all about the power source (Score:5, Interesting)
He who can come up with a power source that can keep the swarm aloft for an hour or more is going to win the marbles.
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It's called jet fuel.
Jammers exist but (ERCA) M1299 Howitzer doesn't (Score:1)
Isn't everything ? (Score:1)