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Transportation

Half of Petrol Stations Expected To Close in Next Decade (dutchnews.nl) 105

Posted by msmash from the encouraging-signs dept.
Half of the Netherlands' petrol stations are set to close in the next five to 10 years as electric cars start to take over the market, according to ING Research. From a report: The bank's economists say there will be insufficient earnings in future, with only some 2,000 of today's 4,131 gas stations remaining. "It is mainly the small, unmanned petrol stations that will disappear," says ING Research, as reported in De Telegraaf. [...]

Owners are trying to maintain turnover by increasing their sales of food and beverages, maintenance services and even car washing, ING says. But the long-term business model of independent stations will be difficult to maintain. "A quick calculation shows how long petrol station owners can still sell petrol," Dirk Mulder, Trade & Retail sector banker at ING Research, said. "A new car remains in the Dutch fleet for an average of 19 years. The last petrol and diesel cars will come onto the market in 2034 and will stay on the road until approximately 2053."

Half of Petrol Stations Expected To Close in Next Decade More | Reply

Half of Petrol Stations Expected To Close in Next Decade

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  • Misleading Headline (Score:4, Funny)

    by YetAnotherDrew ( 664604 ) on Thursday July 04, 2024 @10:32PM (#64601535)
    What's next? Want to tell me about the horrors of climate change . . . in the Netherlands?
    • 25% of the country is already below sea level. And the mean elevation is 30 metres.

      • "Half of petrol stations to close because it will be too costly in the future to add the government mandated EV charging stations"

        None of this has anything to do with the percent of EV on the road or the decline of oil powered vehicles.

        It's about the expected new government regulations to put petrol stations out of business by regulation mandates.

        I'm good with this as long as
        - Politicians at the national level, their staff, government executives all are forced to use EV for 5 years before any new regulation

        • Re:Article headline should be "half of petrol... (Score:5, Interesting)

          by thegarbz ( 1787294 ) on Friday July 05, 2024 @03:48AM (#64601901)

          I'm good with this as long as
          - Politicians at the national level, their staff, government executives all are forced to use EV for 5 years before any new regulations affecting petrol stations take effect.

          I know it's red, white and blue, but the Netherlands is not America. Our politicians rather infamously don't drive much in the way of petrol cars. The recently departed prime minister infamously dismissed the idea of police protection because he didn't want to stop riding his bicycle to work. A significant portion of the population drive EVs and doing so is incredibly easy. The Netherlands has the largest number of EV charging points per capita and per land area in the world, and the largest number absolute in the EU. The government had a plan to have every house within 100m of a charging point by 2030. Several cities have already achieved this.

          As it stands staff and government vehicles are already EVs, as company vehicles were given tax discounts if they were electric - many have made this move a long time ago. Due to this many companies also offer charging points for their staff.

          Now that you know how silly your point is that regulations / legislation is out of touch because it doesn't affect politicians...

          None of this has anything to do with the percent of EV on the road or the decline of oil powered vehicles.

          You're completely wrong about this. The entire premise of the article is purely based on the notion of decline in oil powered vehicles stripping petrol stations of primary revenue.

          • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

            by fluffernutter ( 1411889 )
            Doing so is incredibly easy in the Netherlands. Fify

            I'm so tired of people applying their experience in a country that was designed to be walkable from the beginning and that is very small to everyone else.

            • No, it wasn't FIFY. You added it redundantly. It was incredibly clear that the entire paragraph was specifically about the Netherlands.

              Also, maybe we should increase the walkability of places in the USA?

              Heck, just enabling golf carts for local trips down here in Florida can take a load off the roads.

              • How do you increase the walkability when everything has already been built? That would require different roads, and buildings in different places. It would require greater focus/expense on mass transit as well as price controls on housing around areas where company offices are so that workers can afford to live close to where they work.

                • Everything hasn't already been built. You change up stuff through attrition.

                  • Maybe in the city you live in.

                    • It's every city. There's always changes happening, you can just change the rules a bit and get a lot more walkable areas over time.

                    • My city wanted to re-appropriate crumbling army barracks for use to widen a main artery. It was found that there was another party with a title to the land. That took around 15 years to work out. You make it sound like these things are easy but that is a vast oversimplification. Many cities don't have the money to do all that they require. You are talking about an entirely different layout with houses around clusters of business areas. I don't know how everyone lives within a bike ride to work in the

          • Is that 100 metres, or 100 miles?

          • The recently departed prime minister infamously dismissed the idea of police protection because he didn't want to stop riding his bicycle to work.

            Apparently the police are incapable of escorting their PM on bicycle? The US secret service accompanies not only our current, but previous presidents, on their bike rides...

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by Bert64 ( 520050 )

          The netherlands is a small country, so the range or recharge of an EV rarely becomes a problem.
          Politicians tend to be affluent so they can afford to live somewhere they have parking and access to a charger, so they will be quite happy with this change. It's the ordinary people who live in apartments and park on the street who will suffer.

          • Re:Article headline should be "half of petrol... (Score:5, Funny)

            by VeryFluffyBunny ( 5037285 ) on Friday July 05, 2024 @06:03AM (#64602139)
            Yeah, it's totally unworkable for me because I regularly drive non-stop for 5 hours at a time & I need, not want, NEED to refuel/recharge my car in less than 4 minutes while I take amphetamine & caffeine pills so that I can continue my journey for another 5 hours & still be able to cope with driving at very high speed.

            The Netherlands has excellent high-speed rail which connects seamlessly with the rest of Yurp but I can't, not won't, CAN'T use that because socialism... & I hate people.
            • Let me ask this... Why pay more for a vehicle that wouldn't be able to drive 5 hours non-stop if you wanted it to? Aren't you somewhat more limited in your mobility if you don't have a vehicle that can make it as far and as fast?

              • There's quite a few possible reasons:
                1. It might not actually cost more due to rebates and subsidies.
                2. Lower operating costs.
                3. Convenience of never having to visit a gas station if you can charge at home or work
                4. Don't need or want to drive 5 hours non-stop. I know I'm getting older, but I want a stop every couple hours anyways these days.

                • 1. If you compare between actual compatible vehicles considering luxury level, cargo space, and passenger space rather than going by the average of all cars, I have never really seen that happen, particularly in the larger vehicle space.
                  2.Doesn't help if you can't afford the initial cost. By the time you pay the car off it will be too old to sell, so maybe you pay less in the end but you still lose.
                  3. I have five drivers living in my house. I have one spot in the circuit panel in my garage to put a char

                  • On #2 - The initial cost can be in the loan. We don't sell cars, typically, in my family. I'm in a 2008 tacoma bought new, my mom's in a 2002 Saturn, bought new, etc...
                    #3 - subpanels are a thing. Use the circuit opening to run a subpanel, put the charging ports on that.
                    Also, you generally don't need to rip the wall out - fishtape is a thing.
                    #4 - it's called not being dangerous on the highway. I've seen too many people killed via tired driving. And a stop doesn't have to take all that long - You're only

                    • - You think anyone can get an unlimited loan? Even if a person can get the loan, if they cannot make the payments then it doesn't matter.
                      - Yes it is a subpanel in my garage with one circuit left. To get more chargers I will need another subpanel. That is what will require tearing up my entire basement ceiling because the main panel is at the other end of the house from the garage and the joists run crosswise with no space.
                      - My mate and I switch off if she gets tired, but usually it's not a problem. If
              • Most BEVs can drive non-stop for 5 hours. I don't know why anyone would want to drive more in one go.
                • It wasn't all in one go. It was a 2 hour drive to a park trailhead with no electricity followed by an hour drive to an air bnb in a small town followed by a 1/2 drive to a major city followed by a 2 hour drive home. We had dogs in a kennel and dropped them off as soon as we could on day 1 and made it back just in time to pick them up on day 2. Maybe we could have plugged in on 120v at the airbnb if the owner allowed it but I'm not sure if L1 charging from 9pm when we got there to 7am when we left would h
          • Exactly. I guess in the Netherlands it is affordable to live within walking distance to work and stores. Not where i live. How long does it even take to drive across the country? Takes a full seven days at 8 hours a day in mine.

        • "Half of petrol stations to close because it will be too costly in the future to add the government mandated EV charging stations"

          None of this has anything to do with the percent of EV on the road or the decline of oil powered vehicles.

          You put quotes around the first sentence, but I have a feeling those are your own words. I found those words present nowhere else, not in the article or summary.

          The article and summary make it clear that the stations to close are because of economic conditions. Basically, if you're only seeing 25% of the gasoline sales seen, say, 20 years earlier, that's a lot less incentive to invest in keeping the pumps up. Which probably cost around the same per year no matter how much you pump.

          So if you don't have a

    • Re: (Score:1, Interesting)

      by ihavesaxwithcollies ( 10441708 )
      Am i missing something, is the supply of oil infinite or something? Did a battery molest you as a child?

  • Why? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by argStyopa ( 232550 ) on Thursday July 04, 2024 @10:36PM (#64601539) Journal

    According to https://www.statista.com/topic... [statista.com] ...only 2.8% of the cars in NL in 2021 were fully electric.

    A quick google gives you something like 1/3...but this includes HYBRIDS as EVs, and of course Hybrids take petrol.

    • The Government has set a target for 100% zero emission vehicle sales for 2030. Certainly ambitious, given that modelling suggests [sciencedirect.com] that it will be about a third for privately owned cars. But even that will have an impact on petrol sales.

      • Wow, they can draw a line.

      • Goals are great and all, but how many end up getting pushed back or scrapped when they can't survive reality? Even if they do go through with banning sales of new petrol vehicles, that just means that older petrol vehicles won't be replaced as quickly as they otherwise might or that they will be purchased outside of the country.

        The better idea is to avoid setting arbitrary targets and instead to look at what are the largest impediments to EV adoption and working to lessen or eliminate those. That'll get
        • This is a report from a research firm predicting the future. This is not a government mandate that all these stations must close. If all the factors are correct, investing in petrol stations and the companies that own them might be risky investments in the future.

    • Re: (Score:3)

      by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      31% of new registrations are fully electric: https://autovista24.autovistag... [autovistagroup.com]

      The shift is pretty clear, and with an average age of about 11 years in The Netherlands, in a decade it does appear that there will be far fewer fossil cars on the road and far less demand for the fuel too.

    • Re:Why? (Score:4, Interesting)

      by thegarbz ( 1787294 ) on Friday July 05, 2024 @07:06AM (#64602243)

      According to https://www.statista.com/topic... [statista.com] ...only 2.8% of the cars in NL in 2021 were fully electric.

      A quick google gives you something like 1/3...but this includes HYBRIDS as EVs, and of course Hybrids take petrol.

      Do you not understand the difference between current status and future trends - taking into account changes in regulations influencing those trends?

      2.8% fully electric cars *NOW*. Also while PHEVs do take petrol, many of them don't actually use any. The guy across the street from me has a PHEV. He filled up once in the past *year*. It's not just ING who predict this, the industry itself is poised for a wholloping in the retail market which is precisely why a lot of oil majors are slowly getting out of the local petrol station business and consolidating along highways and large service stations where they know their business will be more secure (and also throwing chargers in at those locations).

      • So you don't apparently understand the difference between reality and government projections/promises?

        The simple fact is that the 'early adopters' are basically saturated, and the rest of the public is less interested in EVs than the fanbois insist they should be.

        Not to mention, basically all EVs are passenger vehicles; there are no serious numbers of EV light duty trucks nor semis although EVs are making some headway in some very narrow delivery niches.

        https://afdc.energy.gov/data/1... [energy.gov]

  • Uhhh... Norway (Score:5, Interesting)

    by LostMyBeaver ( 1226054 ) on Thursday July 04, 2024 @10:58PM (#64601557)
    Classic gas stations are mostly disappearing. Pumps are replaced with chargers at locations that can support it. Mostly unmanned stations still sell gas and diesel. Food and tobacco are what keeps normal stations staffed. A charger can deliver up to 400KVA/hr, but the average is 75KVA since a single early gen BEV charges at 10-15KVA in winter. And the charger is active maybe 25% of the time.
    A single active charger will deliver about 75MW per year. But you need to have a minimum of 5 chargers in a good location to keep even one "active" as people will avoid queues. So, assume, five chargers will deliver 2.5 times one active. So, 187.5MW/year which is about 120,000 euro.
    To install and maintain those five chargers will require justifying an ROI of 3-5 years.
    What this means is, small gas stations can't make the change. Especially if they don't want to become fast food restaurants.
    In Norway, we made the change and we expect it to take longer up north, they keep cars longer and prefer used over new, and... BEVs still struggled in -25C, but in the tropical south where we're only 5-10 degrees below much of the year, we have all adapted to the EV world. Most of us don't even notice gas stations anymore

  • I recently watched a Murco petrol station in the UK be replaced by a brand spanking new BP station.

    The problems with this are:

    - The Murco never had any customers, as it's in a tiny tinpot little town and is really awkward to get to and park in (basically on a single-lane two-way road, with road parking, so every morning it's just a jam of coaches, school buses, HGVs etc. trying to navigate a tiny town where you cannot make it through without giving way at least 5-6 times... almost every 50m or so).

    - There a

  • With the tax subsidies ending for electric vehicles, and used EV's are being exported at massive rates to countries which still have these subsidies, I don't expect electric to sustain this growth, but I even expect a decline when the current lease contracts end. Rougly 80% of the population cannot afford a new car, let alone a new EV when they have to buy it with their own money. t I'd like to see all ambitions in 5-10 years, knowing de-industrialization set is massively in western Europe and time will te
  • The main reason is that too many Americans are stuck on gas-guzzling SUVs, don't want to swap battery packs, and don't want to wait for an EV to charge. They want their Costco haul and McDonald's Big Mac right now, and don't care how they're made. As such, as absurd and illogical as it sounds, climate change isn't really a concern for most Americans and they don't really care so long as gasoline remains under $3/gallon.
    • So make "gasoline" $3.01 per gallon & stop pandering to knuckle-draggers.
    • Because America wasn't built with walking in mind. If there was a fully stocked store a five minute walk away from me then sure i would go every day. But as it happens the nearest full grocery store to me is a Costco but it is a three hour walk away. A bike may be an hour but i just don't have that kind of time. I'm not sure how i would get the 50 lb box of kitty litter on a bike with all the other groceries anyway.

    • I'm happy to wait to charge, if there were someplace for me to charge.

      There isn't, and I can't afford the purchase price.

      The manufacturers are putting DRM into battery packs to prevent third party replacement so that they can charge exorbitant prices for replacements, probably as a means of appeasing dealers in order to get them to sell EVs that threaten their ICEV service revenues.

      I have never owned a new car, and can't afford to buy a used EV and put a battery pack in it at protectionist prices.

      Climate ch

  • Most of them are little supermarkets that sell petrol on the side, since the margin on fuel is not that high.
    Delhaize, AH to go, Spar, Albert Heijn ...

    Also people go there for the ATM and the Postomats or whatever they are called, where people can get their Amazon packages 24/7.

    They'll just slowly replace the pumps with Superchargers.

    • No. Most of them are petrol stations which make high margins on other products. Don't confuse convenience with necessity. People buy things from petrol stations because they are there filling up. The vast majority of customers will disappear if the demand for petrol or a key product goes. That key product is rapidly becoming tabaco with the new supermarket sales ban.

      Ban sales of tabaco at petrol stations, and they will effectively cease to be. There are far more supermarkets around in more convenient locati

      • 'No. Most of them are petrol stations which make high margins on other products. Don't confuse convenience with necessity. People buy things from petrol stations because they are there filling up. '

        Not where I live. I fill up every 5 weeks (Smart car) but I'm at the station 3-5 times a week, for a sandwich, milk or anything I forgot, to get my Amazon packages and the ATM.

        'The vast majority of customers will disappear if the demand for petrol or a key product goes. That key product is rapidly becoming tabaco

      • Which may be why they're predicting for many of the petrol stations to close. If people can instead charge when they go to the grocery store, food place, or similar, they probably will.
        Even here in the USA I've noticed that gas stations are tending to offer more stuff. Things that you can do in the store that take more time.

  • Two or three Buc-ee's could provide service to the entire Netherlands.

  • There's an old saying that goes something like "People who say it can't be done should stay out of the way of people who are already doing it" and this article about the Netherlands is a perfect example. Lots of posts about the impossibility of doing what the Netherlands has already done. People need to learn the difference between "I can't do it" and "It can't be done". It seems like a lot of people consider these to be synonyms in all sorts of contexts, not just cars.

  • Where is the Netherlands going to get all that electricity from?
  • In my neck of the woods, the local zoning board is reviewing plans for a new development not far from me. Replacing a mix of forest, fields, and a former drive-in theater with 25 fresh acres of pavement. The plan is a mix of apartment buildings at various rent levels (definitely needed - local vacancy rates are below 0.5%) and light commercial/retail.

    And right at the entrance...a brand new gas station. Did I mention it's 100 feet from the river? Oh, and there's already 4 other gas stations within hal
  • They can close the petrol stations, as long as the gas stations stay open.
    • They can close half of them so long as it's the half that are on the wrong side of the road for me.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by kackle ( 910159 )
        Nice. Maybe they could only open those on the side of the most traffic during a given hour. That way, they could have their way, closing half the stations, but we get access to the ones we need, when we need them!
  • On a related note, over half of the population of the Netherlands will have to walk long distances to get anything done in the next 10 years.

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