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The Internet Network Networking

Sabotage or Accident? American and European Officials Disagree On What Caused Cuts to Two Undersea Cables (cnn.com) 110

CNN reports that investigators "are trying to crack the mystery of how two undersea internet cables in the Baltic Sea were cut within hours of each other." But there's now two competing viewpoints, "with European officials saying they believe the disruption was an act of sabotage and U.S. officials suggesting it was likely an accident." The foreign ministers of Finland and Germany said in a joint statement that they were "deeply concerned" about the incident and raised the possibility that it was part of a "hybrid warfare," specifically mentioning Russia in their statement. Their assessment was not plucked out of thin air. Russia has been accused of waging a hybrid war against Europe after a string of suspicious incidents, arson attacks, explosions and other acts of sabotage across multiple European countries were traced back to Moscow. And the disruption to the cables came just weeks after the US warned that Moscow was likely to target critical undersea infrastructure. This followed months of suspicious movements of Russian vessels in European waters and the significant beefing up of a dedicated Russian secretive marine unit tasked with surveying the seabed...

But two US officials familiar with the initial assessment of the incident told CNN on Tuesday the damage was not believed to be deliberate activity by Russia or any other nation. Instead, the two officials told CNN they believed it likely caused by an anchor drag from a passing vessel. Such accidents have happened in the past, although not in a quick succession like the two on Sunday and Monday.

Cloudflare's blog also reminds readers that the two cable cuts resulted in little-to-no observable impact
Cloudflare attributes this largely to "the significant redundancy and resilience of Internet infrastructure in Europe." (Their Cloudflare Radar graphs show that after the Sweden-Lithuania cable cut "there was no apparent impact to traffic volumes in either country at the time that the cables were damaged.") Telegeography's submarinecablemap.com illustrates, at least in part, the resilience in connectivity enjoyed by these two countries. In addition to the damaged cable, it shows that Lithuania is connected to neighboring Latvia as well as to the Swedish mainland. Over 20 submarine cables land in Sweden, connecting it to multiple countries across Europe. In addition to the submarine resilience, network providers in both countries can take advantage of terrestrial fiber connections to neighboring countries, such as those illustrated in a European network map from Arelion (formerly Telia), which is only one of the large European backbone providers.

Less than a day later, the C-Lion1 submarine cable, which connects Helsinki, Finland and Rostock Germany was reportedly damaged during the early morning hours of Monday, November 18... In this situation as well, as the Cloudflare Radar graphs below show, there was no apparent impact to traffic volumes in either country at the time that the cables were damaged...

Telegeography's submarinecablemap.com shows that both Finland and Germany also have significant redundancy and resilience from a submarine cable perspective, with over 10 cables landing in Finland, and nearly 10 landing in Germany, including Atlantic Crossing-1 (AC-1), which connects to the United States over two distinct paths. Terrestrial fiber maps from Arelion and eunetworks (as just two examples) show multiple redundant fiber routes within both countries, as well as cross-border routes to other neighboring countries, enabling more resilient Internet connectivity.

See also Does the Internet Route Around Damage?
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Sabotage or Accident? American and European Officials Disagree On What Caused Cuts to Two Undersea Cables

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  • Statistically (Score:4, Insightful)

    by SlashTex ( 10502574 ) on Saturday November 23, 2024 @03:41PM (#64967181)
    The chances of Two accidental anchor drags, in the same region, on consecutive days are vanishingly small.

    Behaviorally, I tend to believe the US 3 letter agencies about like the kid with icing on his lips sayin he didn't get into the cupcakes.
    • Re:Statistically (Score:4, Informative)

      by hdyoung ( 5182939 ) on Saturday November 23, 2024 @04:12PM (#64967239)
      The US spy agencies are way more disciplined and sophisticated than that. Most of the time, on important stuff, they say absolutely nothing at all. Remember when Nordstream 2 popped and the CIA flapped it’s mouth all over the place about it? Oh, right, not a peep out of them.

      If they release info that they think something was an accident, they generally mean “we really think it was an accident’”. The whole say-the-opposite thing is more KGB-style bumbling that everyone sees through.
    • by Anonymous Coward

      Once is an accident.
      Twice is a coincidence.
      Three times is enemy action.

    • Re:Statistically (Score:5, Interesting)

      by ISayWeOnlyToBePolite ( 721679 ) on Saturday November 23, 2024 @04:59PM (#64967321)

      The chances of Two accidental anchor drags, in the same region, on consecutive days are vanishingly small.

      Seemingly it involves one vessel "Vessel tracking data from Kpler shows the Chinese-flagged ship Yi Peng 3 crossed both cables at around the time each was cut. The BCS EastWest was cut around 10 a.m. local time on Sunday, according to the Lithuanian Armed Forces, and the C-Lion 1 was cut around 4 a.m. local time on Monday, per Finnish telecom provider Cinia." https://edition.cnn.com/2024/1... [cnn.com]

      Are there reasons to believe the vessel couldn't have cut the two cables by dropping anchor once and then drifting?

      • by dryeo ( 100693 )

        Are there reasons to believe the vessel couldn't have cut the two cables by dropping anchor once and then drifting?

        Have to look at the tides, currents and winds to comment on that. I'd assume someone is looking or looked.

      • me, I would always presume no ship is drifting, it is either under power or anchored. While anchored you may drift, but not far. My seafaring experience is several decades old though and never on vessels that large, for the smaller vessels I was on, drifting meant eventually turning broadside to the waves (unless a sea anchor was out) making life aboard ship very uncomfortable for all.

        So, my question would be, in what way would cutting the cables benefit the Chinese? or was it something like proof of abil

    • Welcome to ridiculous analogy yearbook.

      What the heck is icing on the lips of Russia here?

      Suspecting Russia without any specific data linking to Russia is just a conspiracy theory du jour

  • by Tablizer ( 95088 ) on Saturday November 23, 2024 @03:48PM (#64967193) Journal

    It's clear that key cables need full-time monitoring of vessels or devices that come near them. Otherwise, assholes will F them up without impunity.

    • I feel like you may not understand how big the ocean is. For the record there's 1.2 million km of bundled fibre cables. That's 1.2 million km of bundles, not individual fibres.

      How many ships you got?

    • Cables need to be buried properly. Lazy cheapskates just unroll it along the sea floor - digging it in with a plow uses more fuel.
    • by Anonymous Coward
      It's clear that key cables need full-time monitoring of vessels or devices that come near them. Otherwise, assholes will F them up with impunity. There, fixed that for you.
  • Reputation matters (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Baron_Yam ( 643147 ) on Saturday November 23, 2024 @04:02PM (#64967225)

    I am comfortable blaming Russia, because they have been doing their best to bring down every other nation in the world, throwing sand in the gears wherever they can.

    They've long since lost benefit of the doubt. They are clearly at war with the entire world but lack the strength to take it on directly.

    It's long past the time we admit Russia will keep advancing 'in self defense'. And every time they take a bit of land, the people on the other side become the next threat.

    There's no risk of WWIII to consider, because ultimately the choice is fight or surrender. Russia needs to be stopped, booted the hell out of Ukraine, and walled off from the civilized world entirely until it gets it shit together. Let nothing, not money, natural resources, people, or even bits over the Internet, in or out of that hole.

    There needs to be a 2nd Iron Curtain, only this time it should be to protect the world against Russia instead of the other way around.

    • They are clearly at war with the entire world but lack the strength to take it on directly.

      They lack the strength to take on Ukraine without groveling to North Korea for ammunition and cannon fodder.

      • To be fair, Ukraine lacks the ability to resist even without NK soldiers without other countries providing arms to it.

        It's Russia and its vassals and allies against the rest of the world, but the majority of the fight is happening in Ukraine and costing Ukrainian blood.

        But Russia still has the ability to sow chaos and disorder around the world without a single soldier, and they're doing it, have been doing it, for decades. We all have our own shit to deal with that causes pain and suffering, Putin's policy

        • by quonset ( 4839537 ) on Saturday November 23, 2024 @06:13PM (#64967405)

          Had Iran, China, or North Korea not provided any assistance, Ukraine would be retaking their territory. It is only because of the assistance that Russia is hanging on. They've lost 1/3 of their entire Black Sea Fleet, including a submarine, have had several large ammo depots destroyed in the past two months, are losing more troops than they can replace, and have had to pull out 1950s/1960s equipment to make do.

          If they were walled off and receiving no assistance, it would all be over next year, assuming the convicted felon doesn't try to appease his Russian handler.

          • Had Iran, China, or North Korea not provided any assistance, Ukraine would be retaking their territory.

            Delusional much? Next you'll tell us that they can generate enough electricity to power their cities by sticking wires in gherkins.

            • Let's see. Ukraine took back the entire Kharkiv oblast, and then some. They took back a large portion of the Kherson oblast. They have made the entire Crimea peninsula untenable by destroying 1/3 of the entire Black Sea fleet as well as rendering the illegal Crimea bridge virtually worthless. They've invaded and are holding a portion of Russia's Kursk oblast.

              Imagine what would happen if Chinese equipment, Iran's drones, and North Korea's ammunition, materiel, and troops weren't around.

              • Let's see. Ukraine took back the entire Kharkiv oblast, and then some. They took back a large portion of the Kherson oblast. They have made the entire Crimea peninsula untenable by destroying 1/3 of the entire Black Sea fleet as well as rendering the illegal Crimea bridge virtually worthless. They've invaded and are holding a portion of Russia's Kursk oblast.

                Imagine what would happen if Chinese equipment, Iran's drones, and North Korea's ammunition, materiel, and troops weren't around.

                It managed to get a little back before Russia began producing more missiles and equipment.
                The much vaunted Ukraine counter-attack was an embarrassing disaster.

                Now that production is up, Ukraine is losing ground at an accelerating pace. Even Ukraine's allies report the acceleration. Or do you not read your own propaganda?

                Ukraine has lost 20% of its territory, most of which is mineral rich. They are not getting it back.

                They barely have any electricity to power their cities.

                The future looks bleak: Ukraine was

      • Not just North Korea. China, Iran and other nations are helping them out too.

    • Looks like we got some Putin fans with mod points.

    • This is the best comment I've seen on the larger situation.

    • I'm just tired of the 1950's esque McCarthyism regarding Russia. A lot of it has turned out to be complete BS and now you've lost the opportunity to address the root of the problem. "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity". Which in this case points to a Chinese ship cruising along not realizing one of its anchors is dragging the seabed.
  • by Miles_O'Toole ( 5152533 ) on Saturday November 23, 2024 @04:18PM (#64967253)

    Once Putin's lapdog is comfortably ensconced in the White House again, Russia's expansionist ambitions will bring this covert war out into the open. Not that most Americans will know, because mainstream news media won't stand up to politicians of any stripe. They'd sell their children for access.

    • Putins lapdog - sigh - do you realize that the Dem party is bankrupt and wont pay you for your posts?
      • Sigh. Do you realize I'm not American, so I actually get to see real news sometimes. And I understand what I see. So yes...Putin's lapdog. I'm very sorry that your voluntary ignorance is preventing you from understanding that reality is a thing.

      • Putins lapdog - sigh - do you realize that the Dem party is bankrupt and wont pay you for your posts?

        The retort of a retard.
        I don't care what happens in this proxy war as long as the US gets the blame.
        It's another one of their stupid interventions in a civil war that is none of their business.

  • by GrahamJ ( 241784 ) on Saturday November 23, 2024 @04:47PM (#64967295)

    If it was intentional but had little effect, why did they do it?

    • by thesandbender ( 911391 ) on Saturday November 23, 2024 @05:07PM (#64967335)
      The same reason Russia launched an Oreshnik hypersonic missile at the Ukraine. To make a statement. "Here's what we could do..." The target of the missle strike was an old rocket booster facility and the actual damage was minimal (there's speculation that the MIRV's had dummy weights for balance in lieu of actual traditional explosive warheads because that was the easiest replacement for nuclear payloads). So, an arguably worthless target hit with the wrong (and expensive) weapon for the target.

      Why? "If you push us far enough, the next one won't have dummy warheads."

      Why the cables? "If we decide we not insane enough to use nukes, we could still damage your economies." Yes, there is a lot of interconnectivity but if enough of it is damaged it could cause serious problems for Europe and also make responding to and recovering from a more kinetic attack more difficult.
      • We've been laying undersea cable for a century or more now. If you have the technology to lay and repair a cable you would undoubtedly have the means to disable one. I'd be surprised if they COULDN'T do this. I'd look at the drunken sailor angle here.
    • Because they thought that it would have a larger impact?
    • by physicsphairy ( 720718 ) on Sunday November 24, 2024 @12:44AM (#64967797)

      If it was intentional but had little effect, why did they do it?

      Wouldn't it be awfully convenient if you wanted to splice into some telecoms infrastructure and there just happened to be an accident taking that infrastructure offline whilst you installed your own monitoring hardware?

      Lots of things nation states can be interested in doing that are more nuanced than just causing damage.

  • Never attribute to malice that which can be explained by incompetence.

    • by Anonymous Coward
      that level of incompetence is malice though
  • by ZipNada ( 10152669 ) on Saturday November 23, 2024 @09:27PM (#64967627)

    So much speculation, but has anyone gone down there and examined the cables where they were broken? I'm not seeing where they did, and it sure does seem like that would yield some clues as to how it happened.

    • Anchor damage does not prove it was accidental... It's easy enough for the captain to get a payoff or been ordered to drop anchor in vicinity of the cable.. then say it was an accident that it caused damage.

      Not even a case of where the captain was aware of why and what happened, no need... could be he was told by someone at parent company to hold position there... and that action caused the damage. Simple plan, with high probability of success, and deniability.

      It's really easy to hide a purposeful, expecte

      • >> Anchor damage does not prove it was accidental

        Nobody said it did. But it would show how the cables were cut, which is more than we know now.

        • From the stuff coming out.. Swedens navy was onsite investigating the cable break, and multiple countries are now investigating this not as an accident, but as criminal.

          If you watch the ships speed and story thus far.. the story doesn't track with what is seen/known... the cable depth was 550feet... and the story being them accidentally dropping an anchor and not knowing they were dragging it... the ship slowed down from 10 to 6 knots just before the ship approached the cable lines (other ships maintained s

  • They do this shit all the time.

  • by Elektroschock ( 659467 ) on Sunday November 24, 2024 @07:05AM (#64968173)

    A chinese vessel was stopped by the Danish authorities and searched. It seems pretty clear to me that in case they were responsible they have to pay for the damage done, or get their ships on the Paris port control list or seized. We cannot accept these incidents, intentional or unintentional. We need a head on a plate.

    It is likely that this is retribution for the Taiwan street passing of the navy, the typical Chinese games that you should not play in Europe.

    • > We cannot accept these incidents, intentional or unintentional.

      While it won't work for submarines... a cut cable should result in a military response to the vicinity of the cut and every ship there with the potential to be responsible should be checked.

      And whatever flag they fly, that's the nation on the hook for the repair bill. If they refuse to pay, then obviously the act was a deliberate act against another state - an act of war. Affected nations can then handle that however they choose to do so.

  • Not frenemies. Enemies. We need to reshore manufacturing and boycott them immediately.
  • Maybe it was an accident they sabotaged it...
  • The GPS tracking the China-registered Yi Peng 3 cargo ship (owned by China-based Ningbo Yipeng Shipping) clearly showed that two separate pass attempts were made to anchor-drag and tear up the two undersea fiber-optic cables connecting Finland and Germany in the Baltic Sea.

    The US narrative has failed and CNN should be discredited for maintaining a consistent false narratives.

    https://www.npr.org/2024/11/21... [npr.org]

I'd rather just believe that it's done by little elves running around.

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