Sabotage or Accident? American and European Officials Disagree On What Caused Cuts to Two Undersea Cables (cnn.com) 110
CNN reports that investigators "are trying to crack the mystery of how two undersea internet cables in the Baltic Sea were cut within hours of each other." But there's now two competing viewpoints, "with European officials saying they believe the disruption was an act of sabotage and U.S. officials suggesting it was likely an accident."
The foreign ministers of Finland and Germany said in a joint statement that they were "deeply concerned" about the incident and raised the possibility that it was part of a "hybrid warfare," specifically mentioning Russia in their statement. Their assessment was not plucked out of thin air. Russia has been accused of waging a hybrid war against Europe after a string of suspicious incidents, arson attacks, explosions and other acts of sabotage across multiple European countries were traced back to Moscow. And the disruption to the cables came just weeks after the US warned that Moscow was likely to target critical undersea infrastructure. This followed months of suspicious movements of Russian vessels in European waters and the significant beefing up of a dedicated Russian secretive marine unit tasked with surveying the seabed...
But two US officials familiar with the initial assessment of the incident told CNN on Tuesday the damage was not believed to be deliberate activity by Russia or any other nation. Instead, the two officials told CNN they believed it likely caused by an anchor drag from a passing vessel. Such accidents have happened in the past, although not in a quick succession like the two on Sunday and Monday.
Cloudflare's blog also reminds readers that the two cable cuts resulted in little-to-no observable impact
Cloudflare attributes this largely to "the significant redundancy and resilience of Internet infrastructure in Europe." (Their Cloudflare Radar graphs show that after the Sweden-Lithuania cable cut "there was no apparent impact to traffic volumes in either country at the time that the cables were damaged.") Telegeography's submarinecablemap.com illustrates, at least in part, the resilience in connectivity enjoyed by these two countries. In addition to the damaged cable, it shows that Lithuania is connected to neighboring Latvia as well as to the Swedish mainland. Over 20 submarine cables land in Sweden, connecting it to multiple countries across Europe. In addition to the submarine resilience, network providers in both countries can take advantage of terrestrial fiber connections to neighboring countries, such as those illustrated in a European network map from Arelion (formerly Telia), which is only one of the large European backbone providers.
Less than a day later, the C-Lion1 submarine cable, which connects Helsinki, Finland and Rostock Germany was reportedly damaged during the early morning hours of Monday, November 18... In this situation as well, as the Cloudflare Radar graphs below show, there was no apparent impact to traffic volumes in either country at the time that the cables were damaged...
Telegeography's submarinecablemap.com shows that both Finland and Germany also have significant redundancy and resilience from a submarine cable perspective, with over 10 cables landing in Finland, and nearly 10 landing in Germany, including Atlantic Crossing-1 (AC-1), which connects to the United States over two distinct paths. Terrestrial fiber maps from Arelion and eunetworks (as just two examples) show multiple redundant fiber routes within both countries, as well as cross-border routes to other neighboring countries, enabling more resilient Internet connectivity.
See also Does the Internet Route Around Damage?
But two US officials familiar with the initial assessment of the incident told CNN on Tuesday the damage was not believed to be deliberate activity by Russia or any other nation. Instead, the two officials told CNN they believed it likely caused by an anchor drag from a passing vessel. Such accidents have happened in the past, although not in a quick succession like the two on Sunday and Monday.
Cloudflare's blog also reminds readers that the two cable cuts resulted in little-to-no observable impact
Cloudflare attributes this largely to "the significant redundancy and resilience of Internet infrastructure in Europe." (Their Cloudflare Radar graphs show that after the Sweden-Lithuania cable cut "there was no apparent impact to traffic volumes in either country at the time that the cables were damaged.") Telegeography's submarinecablemap.com illustrates, at least in part, the resilience in connectivity enjoyed by these two countries. In addition to the damaged cable, it shows that Lithuania is connected to neighboring Latvia as well as to the Swedish mainland. Over 20 submarine cables land in Sweden, connecting it to multiple countries across Europe. In addition to the submarine resilience, network providers in both countries can take advantage of terrestrial fiber connections to neighboring countries, such as those illustrated in a European network map from Arelion (formerly Telia), which is only one of the large European backbone providers.
Less than a day later, the C-Lion1 submarine cable, which connects Helsinki, Finland and Rostock Germany was reportedly damaged during the early morning hours of Monday, November 18... In this situation as well, as the Cloudflare Radar graphs below show, there was no apparent impact to traffic volumes in either country at the time that the cables were damaged...
Telegeography's submarinecablemap.com shows that both Finland and Germany also have significant redundancy and resilience from a submarine cable perspective, with over 10 cables landing in Finland, and nearly 10 landing in Germany, including Atlantic Crossing-1 (AC-1), which connects to the United States over two distinct paths. Terrestrial fiber maps from Arelion and eunetworks (as just two examples) show multiple redundant fiber routes within both countries, as well as cross-border routes to other neighboring countries, enabling more resilient Internet connectivity.
See also Does the Internet Route Around Damage?
Statistically (Score:4, Insightful)
Behaviorally, I tend to believe the US 3 letter agencies about like the kid with icing on his lips sayin he didn't get into the cupcakes.
Re: (Score:2)
No, because the statistics are totally different. Among other relevant differences, people are not all born in the same year.
Re: (Score:2)
No.
The birthday "problem" arises only because there's only 365 days in a year but we think of birthdays as unique. It's purely a perception problem.
The Baltic sea is 377000 km^2. The longest cable in it, C-Lion1, is 1172 km long. About 0.5m across. 0.6 km^2. If you were to drop an anchor randomly, the chance you'd hit it is 1.6e-6. Real close to the "gold" standard 5 sigma used as evidence in particle physics. Way beyond the p0.01 that's enough everywhere else.
Of course, undersea cable do get cut still. Clo
Re:Statistically (Score:5, Interesting)
Anchor drags apparently happen all the time. There are even YouTube videos and "12 signs that..." articles about it.
https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ftsa... [duckduckgo.com]
Combining that with the facts that cables are going to be more numerous and in close proximity to large cities, ship density is going to be significantly higher in proximity to those large cities, and that the shallow water around these cities is where ships will be dropping and dragging anchor, makes this a prime candidate for a veridical paradox [wikipedia.org].
Re: (Score:3)
I proposed this in the last thread on this myself. I was the only one proposing something other than deliberate action.
As for the same ship cutting two cables - it'd just take dragging the anchor the entire way, which has happened in the past. I remember reading incident reports of it happening.
Re:Statistically (Score:4, Interesting)
Last year there were 50 cable repairs in the Atlantic alone, one a week on average. You are right, undersea cables get damaged all the time, and anchors are one of the most common causes.
I find it interesting that it is apparently cheaper to just deal with the outage and repair the cable than it is to protect it. I suppose nobody has a good, cost effect solution for that. Armour might help but not of the anchor scoops it up. Burying it in shallow waters will be difficult and make laying the cable much slower. I guess repairs are routine now.
Re: (Score:2)
From what I've read, they do what they can to protect the cables. They are more heavily armored closer to their endpoints, but even the long hauls are pretty well protected. There are, of course, limits to what you can do - how do you even lay a cable if it weights a thousand pounds per foot? Or pull it back up in order to fix it?
They make the best compromises they can, try to get the cables *under* the seabed wherever possible, and hope for the best while preparing for the worst.
You are dealing with mas
there's only 365 days in a year (Score:3)
Did you know this is 2024?
Re: Statistically (Score:1)
Re:Statistically (Score:4, Informative)
If they release info that they think something was an accident, they generally mean “we really think it was an accident’”. The whole say-the-opposite thing is more KGB-style bumbling that everyone sees through.
Re: (Score:3)
Re: (Score:3)
What would be the benefit for US or Israel to cut cables between Lithuania and Sweden?
Re: (Score:1)
Once is an accident.
Twice is a coincidence.
Three times is enemy action.
Re:Statistically (Score:5, Interesting)
The chances of Two accidental anchor drags, in the same region, on consecutive days are vanishingly small.
Seemingly it involves one vessel "Vessel tracking data from Kpler shows the Chinese-flagged ship Yi Peng 3 crossed both cables at around the time each was cut. The BCS EastWest was cut around 10 a.m. local time on Sunday, according to the Lithuanian Armed Forces, and the C-Lion 1 was cut around 4 a.m. local time on Monday, per Finnish telecom provider Cinia." https://edition.cnn.com/2024/1... [cnn.com]
Are there reasons to believe the vessel couldn't have cut the two cables by dropping anchor once and then drifting?
Re: (Score:2)
Are there reasons to believe the vessel couldn't have cut the two cables by dropping anchor once and then drifting?
Have to look at the tides, currents and winds to comment on that. I'd assume someone is looking or looked.
Re: (Score:2)
So, my question would be, in what way would cutting the cables benefit the Chinese? or was it something like proof of abil
Re: Statistically (Score:1)
Welcome to ridiculous analogy yearbook.
What the heck is icing on the lips of Russia here?
Suspecting Russia without any specific data linking to Russia is just a conspiracy theory du jour
Re: (Score:2)
You really have to ask?
I agree. NATO supplies weapons and other military assistance to fight Russia, so why all the pearl clutching when Russia retaliates?
That's war, so cope.
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
Putting two and two together is not a strong suit in the West. When KAL 007 was shot down in the early 1980s by the Soviets, no one tied that directly to what was going on in Afghanistan, which was yet another proxy war funded by the US. But every issue after that tended to just snowball the existing problem that was actually begun by Carter, who chose to fund the Afghan opposition, rather than Reagan. That little adventure ended up creating Osama Bin Laden.
Anywho I am not convinced yet that the Francis
Re: (Score:1)
The west is playing 5D chess and Putin is still trying to open his box of checkers
Tricking him into Afghanistan
Tricking him into Syria
expanding NATO
Tricking him into relying on China
Tricking him into invading Ukraine
Ticking him into expanding NATO some more
Silly Russians still can't even tell Putin is just a "useful idiot" for the West. Played like a fiddle.
Re: (Score:2)
Learn from it and adjust. (Score:5, Interesting)
It's clear that key cables need full-time monitoring of vessels or devices that come near them. Otherwise, assholes will F them up without impunity.
Re: (Score:2)
Which terrorist, Bibi or Hamas?
Re: (Score:2)
I feel like you may not understand how big the ocean is. For the record there's 1.2 million km of bundled fibre cables. That's 1.2 million km of bundles, not individual fibres.
How many ships you got?
Re: Learn from it and adjust. (Score:3)
Re: (Score:1)
Reputation matters (Score:5, Insightful)
I am comfortable blaming Russia, because they have been doing their best to bring down every other nation in the world, throwing sand in the gears wherever they can.
They've long since lost benefit of the doubt. They are clearly at war with the entire world but lack the strength to take it on directly.
It's long past the time we admit Russia will keep advancing 'in self defense'. And every time they take a bit of land, the people on the other side become the next threat.
There's no risk of WWIII to consider, because ultimately the choice is fight or surrender. Russia needs to be stopped, booted the hell out of Ukraine, and walled off from the civilized world entirely until it gets it shit together. Let nothing, not money, natural resources, people, or even bits over the Internet, in or out of that hole.
There needs to be a 2nd Iron Curtain, only this time it should be to protect the world against Russia instead of the other way around.
Re: (Score:2)
They are clearly at war with the entire world but lack the strength to take it on directly.
They lack the strength to take on Ukraine without groveling to North Korea for ammunition and cannon fodder.
Re: (Score:2)
To be fair, Ukraine lacks the ability to resist even without NK soldiers without other countries providing arms to it.
It's Russia and its vassals and allies against the rest of the world, but the majority of the fight is happening in Ukraine and costing Ukrainian blood.
But Russia still has the ability to sow chaos and disorder around the world without a single soldier, and they're doing it, have been doing it, for decades. We all have our own shit to deal with that causes pain and suffering, Putin's policy
Re:Reputation matters (Score:4, Insightful)
Had Iran, China, or North Korea not provided any assistance, Ukraine would be retaking their territory. It is only because of the assistance that Russia is hanging on. They've lost 1/3 of their entire Black Sea Fleet, including a submarine, have had several large ammo depots destroyed in the past two months, are losing more troops than they can replace, and have had to pull out 1950s/1960s equipment to make do.
If they were walled off and receiving no assistance, it would all be over next year, assuming the convicted felon doesn't try to appease his Russian handler.
Re: (Score:2)
Had Iran, China, or North Korea not provided any assistance, Ukraine would be retaking their territory.
Delusional much? Next you'll tell us that they can generate enough electricity to power their cities by sticking wires in gherkins.
Re: (Score:2)
Let's see. Ukraine took back the entire Kharkiv oblast, and then some. They took back a large portion of the Kherson oblast. They have made the entire Crimea peninsula untenable by destroying 1/3 of the entire Black Sea fleet as well as rendering the illegal Crimea bridge virtually worthless. They've invaded and are holding a portion of Russia's Kursk oblast.
Imagine what would happen if Chinese equipment, Iran's drones, and North Korea's ammunition, materiel, and troops weren't around.
Re: (Score:2)
The Russian army's ability to dig working artillery out of storage began to collapse about two months ago. They are digging out tanks that quite literally belong in museums which are only useful as self propelled short range artillery. The cannon fodder are riding into battle not in APCs but in Chinese golf carts.
Ukraine is suffering too, but t
Re: (Score:1)
Russia invaded with a tiny peacetime force - 80k is the estimate. They didn't mobilize. The point of the invasion, which was wildly successful for what it accomplished, was to bring the Ukrainians back to the table in Istanbul, which was foreclosed by the US and Britain both sending their leaders to tell Ukraine to not negotiate. Anywho the Russians couldn't hold all the territory they conquered with a tiny mobile force. The reconquest of Kharkov was against an outnumbered and unprepared foe.
Ukraine outnumbered the Russians for the majority of this war, apparently up until the fall of 2023. This is not true now, though, which is why they are losing all across the front. Attrition. The conditions of mid to late 2022 cannot be recreated. The failure of the 2023 offensive should have been the tipoff to you that all was not well.
People like me said from the start this was a bad idea. Now i'm just being proven right. I bet Minsk II isn't looking like such a bad deal now. That's not coming back either. The error was in provoking the Russians to mobilize.
The previous Nazis in the Ukraine also had a lot of success against the Russians at first, then a grinding defeat. These modern ones are repeating history.
Ukraine is lucky Russia used the "Special Military Operation" option.
"War" would have meant they would target civilian areas as well as military ones.
Civilian casualties have been comparatively small compared to the carpet bombing the US has used in the past, e.g. Vietnam and North Korea.
Ukrainian shills are the only ones giving Ukraine any hope of "winning", whatever that means in their feeble minds.
Re: (Score:2)
Oh, look...a Russian troll.
Re: (Score:1)
Let's see. Ukraine took back the entire Kharkiv oblast, and then some. They took back a large portion of the Kherson oblast. They have made the entire Crimea peninsula untenable by destroying 1/3 of the entire Black Sea fleet as well as rendering the illegal Crimea bridge virtually worthless. They've invaded and are holding a portion of Russia's Kursk oblast.
Imagine what would happen if Chinese equipment, Iran's drones, and North Korea's ammunition, materiel, and troops weren't around.
It managed to get a little back before Russia began producing more missiles and equipment.
The much vaunted Ukraine counter-attack was an embarrassing disaster.
Now that production is up, Ukraine is losing ground at an accelerating pace. Even Ukraine's allies report the acceleration. Or do you not read your own propaganda?
Ukraine has lost 20% of its territory, most of which is mineral rich. They are not getting it back.
They barely have any electricity to power their cities.
The future looks bleak: Ukraine was
Re: (Score:2)
Not just North Korea. China, Iran and other nations are helping them out too.
Re: (Score:2)
Looks like we got some Putin fans with mod points.
Re: (Score:2)
Yeah, I noticed that too.
Re: (Score:2)
This is the best comment I've seen on the larger situation.
Re: (Score:1)
This is only the beginning (Score:3, Insightful)
Once Putin's lapdog is comfortably ensconced in the White House again, Russia's expansionist ambitions will bring this covert war out into the open. Not that most Americans will know, because mainstream news media won't stand up to politicians of any stripe. They'd sell their children for access.
Re: This is only the beginning (Score:2, Insightful)
Re: (Score:2)
Sigh. Do you realize I'm not American, so I actually get to see real news sometimes. And I understand what I see. So yes...Putin's lapdog. I'm very sorry that your voluntary ignorance is preventing you from understanding that reality is a thing.
Re: (Score:1)
Putins lapdog - sigh - do you realize that the Dem party is bankrupt and wont pay you for your posts?
The retort of a retard.
I don't care what happens in this proxy war as long as the US gets the blame.
It's another one of their stupid interventions in a civil war that is none of their business.
Re: (Score:1)
It's America's fault Russia is genociding Ukrainians again.
Sure it is Vlad. Let's get you back inside.
It's America's fault for goading Ukraine into fighting a nuclear power when it has no chance of winning. Of course, the US and NATO were never going to put boots on the ground in Ukraine.
"Genociding" Ukrainians is a figment of your ridiculous fevered imagination. If Russia wanted to eliminate all Ukrainians it would have declared a war, not a SMO, and then it would have carpet bombed Ukrainian cities. You know, the way the US did in Vietnam, Korea, and Iraq.
The obvious question (Score:3)
If it was intentional but had little effect, why did they do it?
To make a statement... (Score:5, Insightful)
Why? "If you push us far enough, the next one won't have dummy warheads."
Why the cables? "If we decide we not insane enough to use nukes, we could still damage your economies." Yes, there is a lot of interconnectivity but if enough of it is damaged it could cause serious problems for Europe and also make responding to and recovering from a more kinetic attack more difficult.
Re:To make a statement... (Score:4)
But yes, the "hypersonic" bit is more PR than actual threat. Most missiles are "hypersonic", it's the short flight time from the trajectory that's the critical factor. Supposedly why there was a tacit understanding not to place SSBM's right off each other's coast during the cold war, it would destabilize things too much.
Re: (Score:1)
(Russia's economy is collapsing and his military isn't far behind.)
You must get this crucial information to Ukraine's allies! They are laboring under delusions. (Or you are?)
US generals are saying that the US can't supply many more munitions - they don't have the production capacity and they are falling below critical amounts for their own defense.
Many western observers and commentators have stressed that Russia's advances into Ukraine are accelerating.
Russia has options in this war: Ukraine has none.
But your secret information could be the key that turns this disastrous p
Re: (Score:1)
Ukraine can turn off Russia's power like flicking a switch.
Totally deluded. They can't find the switch because they are sitting in the dark.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:1)
Re: (Score:2)
Re:The obvious question (Score:4, Interesting)
If it was intentional but had little effect, why did they do it?
Wouldn't it be awfully convenient if you wanted to splice into some telecoms infrastructure and there just happened to be an accident taking that infrastructure offline whilst you installed your own monitoring hardware?
Lots of things nation states can be interested in doing that are more nuanced than just causing damage.
Rule of thumb (Score:2)
Never attribute to malice that which can be explained by incompetence.
Re: (Score:1)
Anyone looked at the cables? (Score:3)
So much speculation, but has anyone gone down there and examined the cables where they were broken? I'm not seeing where they did, and it sure does seem like that would yield some clues as to how it happened.
Re: (Score:2)
Anchor damage does not prove it was accidental... It's easy enough for the captain to get a payoff or been ordered to drop anchor in vicinity of the cable.. then say it was an accident that it caused damage.
Not even a case of where the captain was aware of why and what happened, no need... could be he was told by someone at parent company to hold position there... and that action caused the damage. Simple plan, with high probability of success, and deniability.
It's really easy to hide a purposeful, expecte
Re: (Score:2)
>> Anchor damage does not prove it was accidental
Nobody said it did. But it would show how the cables were cut, which is more than we know now.
Re: (Score:2)
From the stuff coming out.. Swedens navy was onsite investigating the cable break, and multiple countries are now investigating this not as an accident, but as criminal.
If you watch the ships speed and story thus far.. the story doesn't track with what is seen/known... the cable depth was 550feet... and the story being them accidentally dropping an anchor and not knowing they were dragging it... the ship slowed down from 10 to 6 knots just before the ship approached the cable lines (other ships maintained s
Of course it is Russia (Score:2)
They do this shit all the time.
Chinese Vessel (Score:3)
A chinese vessel was stopped by the Danish authorities and searched. It seems pretty clear to me that in case they were responsible they have to pay for the damage done, or get their ships on the Paris port control list or seized. We cannot accept these incidents, intentional or unintentional. We need a head on a plate.
It is likely that this is retribution for the Taiwan street passing of the navy, the typical Chinese games that you should not play in Europe.
Re: (Score:2)
> We cannot accept these incidents, intentional or unintentional.
While it won't work for submarines... a cut cable should result in a military response to the vicinity of the cut and every ship there with the potential to be responsible should be checked.
And whatever flag they fly, that's the nation on the hook for the repair bill. If they refuse to pay, then obviously the act was a deliberate act against another state - an act of war. Affected nations can then handle that however they choose to do so.
Russia, China, India, and DPRK are our enemies (Score:2)
Why Not Both? (Score:1)
CNN and US officials are out of touch (Score:2)
The GPS tracking the China-registered Yi Peng 3 cargo ship (owned by China-based Ningbo Yipeng Shipping) clearly showed that two separate pass attempts were made to anchor-drag and tear up the two undersea fiber-optic cables connecting Finland and Germany in the Baltic Sea.
The US narrative has failed and CNN should be discredited for maintaining a consistent false narratives.
https://www.npr.org/2024/11/21... [npr.org]
Re: (Score:2)
"baselessly"
I don't think that word means what you think it means. There's no question the ship in question was responsible, the only question is whether it was on purpose or accidental. The probability of the same ship accidentally cutting two separate cables on the same trip is significantly less than it purposefully doing so.
Re: (Score:2)
Yes, no russian link at all... GG russian Anonymous Coward.
Your Troll farms SUCK
Re: (Score:2, Interesting)
Such accidents have happened in the past, although not in a quick succession like the two on Sunday and Monday."
From the same Chinese ship with a Russian captain.
Re: (Score:2)
In any case the companies that caused it need to compensate for the damages done.