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Transportation

Electric Cars in UK Last as Long as Petrol and Diesel Vehicles, Study Finds (theguardian.com) 122

Battery cars on Britain's roads are lasting as long as petrol and diesel cars, according to a study that has found a rapid improvement in electric vehicle reliability. From a report: An international team of researchers has estimated that an electric car will have a lifespan of 18.4 years, compared with 18.7 years for petrol cars and 16.8 years for diesels, according to a peer-reviewed study published on Friday in the journal Nature Energy. The findings were based on 300m records from compulsory annual MOT tests of roadworthiness.

Automotive engineers have long suspected electric cars will be more reliable than petrol or diesel cars, because they contain many fewer moving parts. Data has been limited, however, because the earliest mass-market electric cars are only just reaching the end of their lives. The researchers, from the University of Birmingham, the London School of Economics, the University of California San Diego, and the University of Bern, Switzerland, used MOT data to estimate the failure rate of all cars -- ignoring scrappage in the first few years, which is most likely to be related to accidents. The analysis found that Tesla cars had the longest lifespan among battery cars.

Electric Cars in UK Last as Long as Petrol and Diesel Vehicles, Study Finds

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  • by hdyoung ( 5182939 ) on Friday January 24, 2025 @12:34PM (#65115461)
    Past a decade youre fighting a lot of fundamental chemistry. Most of my cars weren’t scrapped because the drivetrain failed. Usually it was because of the peeking paint and or gaping body holes.
    • by PPH ( 736903 )

      Pacific Northwest: Salt the roads once and you've wiped out this years salmon run. They do spray some sort of anti ice compound on the roads but it doesn't appear to corrode steel. Lots of nasty grooves in pavement though, which are visible for many months.

      • Re:Corrosion (Score:4, Interesting)

        by MachineShedFred ( 621896 ) on Friday January 24, 2025 @02:16PM (#65115843) Journal

        The liquid used (at least by the Portland Bureau of Transportation) is liquid magnesium chloride (MgCl2) which accelerates corrosion of metal.

        The nasty grooves in pavement is from people that still think they need to run studded tires for 6 months of the year for the 1 week of ice we might get. We need to ban studded tires and tell people to just keep a good set of tire chains in the god damn trunk if they really need to go out in to an ice storm rather than waiting a day or two.

        Also I believe the big concern with road salt wasn't so much the salmon runs, as the cranberry bogs. Salted road runoff will kill that industry in high enough concentrations.

        • by PPH ( 736903 )

          The nasty grooves in pavement is from people that still think they need to run studded tires

          Nope. Clear groves an inch or so wide and six inches apart. Quite evident if your road gets treated in the winter and the marks remain throughout the summer.

          Maybe it's not magnesium chloride if that doesn't result in this kind of damage.

      • by Cyberax ( 705495 )
        Really? If it's just good old NaCl, then why would it affect salmon?
      • Pacific Northwest: Salt the roads once and you've wiped out this years salmon run.

        Why? The roads in the UK which has a very similar, very wet climate, are regularly salted and the density of roads there is far higher and yet it does not seem to affect the salmon in rivers there. Are pacific salmon hypersensitive to salt (which seems unlikely given how long they live in the ocean for) or do you somehow massively over-salt your roads?

        • by PPH ( 736903 )

          Any change to the chemistry of a creek in which salmon fry are developing can affect their ability to smell/sense their way back as adults when they return to spawn. Their natal creeks are fresh water, so that's what they have to sniff out. That's the basis of our state's department of fisheries rules regarding runoff. We have to build millions of dollars of bio-filtering systems for storm drain runoff.

          Personally, I don't believe that salmon always return to their place of birth. Rather infrequently, in fa

    • by whitroth ( 9367 )

      The only "peeking paint" (I assume you mean "peeling") on my 2008 minivan that I bought in '13 is where some stupid kid keyed the van, years ago.

    • Usually it was because of the peeking paint and or gaping body holes.

      The body of my ten-year-old EV is mostly unpainted plastic.

      No peeling, no rust, no holes.

      • It's the frame underneath that plastic shell that you need to worry about. If it's made of steel, you probably got 20 years before it gets significant rust damage. Less if you park outside or you live in an area that salts the roads during winter.

        The lithium ion battery will probably die somewhere before that point, though.

        • by XXongo ( 3986865 )

          The lithium ion battery will probably die somewhere before that point, though.

          That's what everybody worried about... twenty years ago.

          Turns out that real-world batteries are holding up much better than the conservative estimates of years back had guessed they would.

    • Mostly you're fighting inadequate galvanizing. The speed at which vehicles rust has always varied from brand to brand, era to era, model to model.

  • by Z80a ( 971949 ) on Friday January 24, 2025 @12:42PM (#65115473)

    You lose by turning the cars into basically phones with wheels.
    Electric cars could be very simple, and easy to repair vehicles, but then we decided to add a shitload of black box computers and proprietary firmwares to it.

    • we decided to add a shitload of black box computers and proprietary firmwares to it.

      The same is true of modern ICE-Vs.

    • I don't know if you've looked at any modern gasoline or diesel engine made since the eighties, but uh... they're just as packed with black box computers and proprietary firmware.

      You can still get a sense of what's going on because OBD-2 exists and the CAN bus is an open standard, but let's not pretend that ICE powered vehicles are any less packed full of microprocessors and sensors than an EV.

      • by Z80a ( 971949 )

        Yep, also pretty terrible, and i imagine that anything i say about remote features etc etc etc on the electrics will get backported to gas because money.
        But it would be nice to see an nice, very simple electric car.

  • I have a couple of vehicles rapidly approaching 50 years old. That still run just fine. Granted, a couple of data points don't make a complete study. But when a significant number of EVs reach this age, I'll consider the distribution curve to be valid.

    • by Sique ( 173459 ) on Friday January 24, 2025 @01:20PM (#65115603) Homepage
      How much mileage do your cars have? How often do you drive them? How often have you replaced the engine or the gearbox? I can point to some horse drawn carriages built in the 17th century and claim that ICEs just crumble under your butt in comparison. And you know that Tutankhamuns chariot is still in mint condition?

      A few cars from a collector don't even start to make a dent in any statistics.

      • by Holi ( 250190 )

        "How much mileage do your cars have? How often do you drive them? How often have you replaced the engine or the gearbox? "

        Not the OP but my 2012 Tacoma has well over 200k, I drive it daily, I have only replaced shocks, oil, filters, the tires and windshield wipers.

      • by CAIMLAS ( 41445 )

        The inverse is that you will never have 50 year EVs which have anything close to the original range without regular rebuilds.

        It's not anecdotal, it's how they're designed.

    • People don't want to drive cars. They want a user experience or brand status. If we wanted to get from point A to point B, about half of us in the US could start taking the bus. Would take about 18 months for the new demand to turn into the necessary public infrastructure. But we won't, because that's not what consumera want.

      • When I see a bus stop within a few miles of my house that might become an option.

        And yes, I live within the city limits of a major metro area in the US.

      • by Holi ( 250190 )

        Depends where you live, some states have adequate public transit, unfortunately most states do not.

      • by CAIMLAS ( 41445 )

        "If we wanted to get from point A to point B, about half of us in the US could start taking the bus."

        LOL no.

        Could you take the bus for daily commuting needs? Yes. That does not cover the majority of reasons you need a car -
        - moving
        - shopping
        - traveling

        You would also have to account for the significant negative impact to national productivity if everyone had to deal with bus schedules. There's a reason why only poor people with no time preference possibility are the only ones who ride the things - they can't

  • by CEC-P ( 10248912 ) on Friday January 24, 2025 @12:51PM (#65115515)
    I don't know for sure if electric motors in cars are just wound copper like every other smaller one but if so, that copper is going to oxidize if they don't seal it. Assuming they do, no re-winding needed like for really old alternators. So that could run basically forever. Gas motors fail due to lifters or rods going bad, pistol ring seals, metal warping, or head gaskets failing, and a few other "moving parts" issues with metal fatigue. Electrics don't have that.
    For electrics, it'd be the battery packs which cost like $10,000+ so that instantly totals the car. And they don't last longer than 10 years. That said, my new 2024 Toyota has a CVT transmission that will probably blow up at 100,000 miles and cost about the same. Considering electrics don't even have transmissions, I'd call that a tie. The only other totaller is a rusted frame. You can undercoat it for like $600 aftermarket and you're good even for salt and snow environments.

    But all of this is meaningless because manufacturers do not want you to drive a car for 30 years. That loses them money. So they don't do any of that.
    • that copper is going to oxidize if they don't seal it.

      Of course, the windings are sealed.

      And [batteries] don't last longer than 10 years.

      My ten-year-old EV has 95% of its original range.

      • My ten-year-old EV has 95% of its original range.

        This is more likely to be a firmware change or measurement artifact than reality.

        • by shilly ( 142940 )

          Wut? Everyone remembers what the range of their EV was when they first bought it, and can then see if it drops subsequently. They never do drop, not materially. The BMSs turned out to be pretty damn effective.

      • by vyvepe ( 809573 )

        And [batteries] don't last longer than 10 years.

        My ten-year-old EV has 95% of its original range.

        Do you even drive it or is only stored in a garage at a low temperature and about 30% charge?

        • by Cyberax ( 705495 )
          My Tesla Model S from 2015 has 85% of range, and 160000 miles on the odometer. It's on the original battery, although the drive unit was replaced under warranty once.
    • My shitty old EV is going 10 years and I anticipate will be fine for another 20. On some level I want to get rid of it, because over 10 years my life has changed and I want more space. But it requires no maintenance, electricity is cheaper than gas, it's smoother than a Lexus, and is basically the perfect commuter car.

    • The oil pump in my xTerra failed and destroyed the motor. I had 2 different shops quote me very near $10,000 for a used engine installed. So $10k for a battery is not really all that crazy. At least by comparison.
    • by shilly ( 142940 )

      Leaving aside the silly estimate of 10 year battery life, why would you think that a battery pack is still going to cost 10k+ in 10 years time? 10 years ago, a battery cost $290 per kWh. Ten years before that, it was $1000 to $1500 per kWh. Today it's $115 per kWh. And all of that has happened before real scale economies have kicked in.

    • I don't know for sure if electric motors in cars are just wound copper like every other smaller one but if so, that copper is going to oxidize if they don't seal it.

      You can't make an electric motor without covering the copper with insulation and hence sealing it. Without insulation you only have one, very thick, winding and your motor will not work. Copper oxidation is not why electric motors or transformers fail.

  • by xack ( 5304745 ) on Friday January 24, 2025 @12:53PM (#65115527)
    Electric cars have only become mainstream since 2010, or 2008 if you count the Roadster. While there were historical successes like milk floats in the UK, we still don't have enough data yet to make true conclusions.
    • That's where Weibull distributions come into play. It doesn't require a normal distribution in the data set. Like all statistics, it can benefit from more data. But it does a remarkable job of estimating failure rates from partial data.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

    • Actually you do have enough data. Condition monitoring is a thing, as is end of life projection. Unless that is you think EVs contain something magic in them which we haven't used as a component elsewhere in the past and therefore can't estimate life expectancy based on current condition on a component level (hint: we can, there's an entire field of engineering dedicated to doing this)

    • by CAIMLAS ( 41445 )

      We actually have quite a bit data available - sufficient to at least indicate that the design of EVs to use lithium batteries is not nearly as sustainable (maintainable) as ICE.

  • Land Rovers up and down the land are chuckling condescendingly

    • by Temkin ( 112574 )

      Land Rovers up and down the land are chuckling condescendingly

      My 25 year old Diesel Excursion and 54 year old VW Bug had a good laugh as well...

    • You don't hear a lot of modern Land Rover owners bragging about the reliability of their vehicles anymore. The electronics are known to fail frequently, to the point where they are not considered to be one of the more unreliable automakers out there.

    • The Rover V8 installed into the Discovery II would like a word.

      If you can find one that doesn't have a crack in the block somewhere, I'd be surprised.

    • At their younger counterparts.
  • Not likely (Score:2, Insightful)

    No way EV batteries are lasting 20 years and replacing the battery totals the vehicle. For most people shelf life rather than distance driven is the limiting factor.

    • No way EV batteries are lasting 20 years and replacing the battery totals the vehicle. For most people shelf life rather than distance driven is the limiting factor.

      What do you mean no way? We already have 10+ year old EVs on the market with batteries still at around 80% capacity. Your car isn't a cheap Alibaba battery powered toy, and we have actual data from 10s of thousands of vehicles coming to a 1.8%/yr degradation rate.

      And if you're throwing away your car simply because it's battery isn't able to keep the original range perfectly well that points to something being wrong with you, not with the car.

    • by kwerle ( 39371 )

      Yeah - lots of ICE need virtually no maintenance during the first 200K miles.

  • by yababom ( 6840236 ) on Friday January 24, 2025 @01:07PM (#65115573)

    Outside of the rust belt, cars are often scrapped because of accumulating failures in the 'soft' parts: seals, handles, buttons, seats, etc... EV's will have this issue too.

    But the big one for EV's will be the electronics: can we get replacement batteries, inverters, etc for less than the car is worth? So far the answer is no...

    The result of having less parts is that the parts that are present are more 'unique' and costly, and so far it's simply not possible to go to the local parts store and pick up replacements for most of the critical electronic units in EVs. Something as simple as a failed charging port connector can be cost-prohibitive to replace.

    Additionally many of these cars integrate important 'driving experience' functions into the entertainment system, so even a radio upgrade becomes impossible--which makes it all the more likely that a car might become unpleasant/undesirable much sooner than necessary.

    • That is no different from a modern internal combustion car. A gasoline car has ~10X the number of moving parts. Yours is an argument for buying a car from last century, not against electric cars.

  • Batteries degrade based on how many cycles they've had, so a vehicle that's rarely used is going to last much longer (in years) than one that's driven a long distance each day.

    Someone who bought their vehicle 20 years ago before there were all of the options to fast charging may have planned for a short commute to / from work and the occasional errand. (note that fast charging also shortens battery life)

    Basically, was the number of years a cherry-picked metric?

    • This is an excellent and valid point, and IMHO really should be the metric to use more often.

      If we assume a very conservative 200 miles per charge cycle, which covers lifetime degradation as well as incomplete charge/discharge cycles (which we'll count as full cycles anyway), and a battery lifetime of 2,000 cycles for NCM chemistry, that's 400,000 miles. LFP chemistry is good for 3,000 up to 10,000 cycles so we're easily in million-mile territory for EVs made with LFP packs.

      That said, though...

      > Basicall

      • by XXongo ( 3986865 )

        "The findings were based on 300m records from compulsory annual MOT tests of roadworthiness"

        They were not considering battery health, but only the physical wear-and-tear of the vehicle as a whole. Since there's very little difference between EVs and ICEVs in terms of things that would be inspected for roadworthiness, it is hardly surprising they last just as long.

        The primary data point was looking at when vehicles stopped being MOT tested. Since a vehicle without a MOT test cannot be driven or parked on any street, this is a good measure of a vehicle being either scrapped or sold to a country "typically to countries with less stringent environmental regulations and lower operating, maintenance and repair costs."

    • Batteries degrade based on how many cycles they've had, so a vehicle that's rarely used is going to last much longer (in years) than one that's driven a long distance each day.

      Either this isn't true at all, or it's much more nuanced than that.

      Firstly, different battery chemistries appear to have different capacity loss factors.

      For most chemistries, it's the time spent at high charge levels that appears to be the crucial factor. Obviously, the more often a battery is charged, the more time it spends at high charge levels. However, the LFP batteries in some Teslas appear to be relatively unaffected by high charge levels.

    • You missed the part where they said, "peer reviewed", I think.

    • by Holi ( 250190 )

      Don't forget about calendar degradation. Batteries degrade when they just sit there.

  • so, there's this, "An international team of researchers has estimated that an electric car..." they had 300 million records and still they had to estimate? According to Duck Duck go referencing Toyota and wiki, the first priuses came out in 97 and the first ones sold world wide were in 2000, so, that means they should have data that covered those cars for over 20 years. so why 'estimate?' Simply report what that data says. Or, is there a bias?
    • For one thing, the first Priuses used sticks of NiMH cylindrical cells. Gen II Priuses moved to prismatic cells, but still NiMH. A totally different chemistry than any plug-in EV uses (excepting the EV-1 and . The first Prius with a Li-ion battery wasn't until a couple years into the Gen III when they made a plug in version... around when the Model S was coming out anyway.

      • No offense intended but how is that effecting my argument?

        I was driving a model S for December, and it was 2018 model and would only give me about 220 miles of range, total, with only 60,000 miles on the odometer. That's about 20% more range loss than one would expect with a car with only that few miles. I usually do about 25,000 miles per year, so at that rate, that car's battery would not last more than 10 years.

        just a side note.

    • by XXongo ( 3986865 )
      That is the results of 300 million (annual) MOT tests, not results of the lifetime of 300 million vehicles.

      They state that the EVs in the data set have "an average cohort year of 2015.1", so deriving the18.4 year expected lifetime has to be an estimate (based on failure rates so far),

      According to Duck Duck go referencing Toyota and wiki, the first priuses came out in 97 and the first ones sold world wide were in 2000,

      These are hybrid vehicles, not electric vehicles. That is, they are internal-combustion vehicles with battery augmentation, not vehicles using the battery to drive. Also, it's a different battery type.

      • I did not see the 'annual' in the report, musta missed that, I had thought it was 300 million vehicles total

        I know that Priuses are hybrid, but I had thought the ICE engines were mostly used to recharge the batteries and the main driving was done via the electric motors.

        Thanks for enlightening me

  • electric car will have a lifespan of 18.4 years, compared with 18.7 years for petrol cars and 16.8 years for diesels,

    My 2001 Honda Civic EX (135k miles) and 2002 Honda CR-V EX (60k miles) say hold my driver's beer ... :-)

    • But at the other end of the scale, you could have bought a Dodge Journey or a Fiat 500, and you'd have gone through two or three of them by now.

    • by XXongo ( 3986865 )

      electric car will have a lifespan of 18.4 years, compared with 18.7 years for petrol cars and 16.8 years for diesels,

      My 2001 Honda Civic EX (135k miles) and 2002 Honda CR-V EX (60k miles) say hold my driver's beer ... :-)

      Anecdotal evidence does not disprove statistical data.

  • From a report: An international team of researchers has estimated that an electric car will have a lifespan of 18.4 years, compared with 18.7 years for petrol cars and 16.8 years for diesels, according to a peer-reviewed study published on Friday in the journal Nature Energy.

    They compared ACTUAL data with ESTIMATED data, and think they've found something meaningful?

    How many 20 year-old EVs were included in the ACTUAL data,

Two percent of zero is almost nothing.

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