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Polymarket Gamblers Threaten To Kill Journalist Over Iran Missile Story (timesofisrael.com) 188

An anonymous reader quotes a report from the Times of Israel, written by journalist Emanuel Fabian: On Tuesday, March 10, a massive explosion shook the city of Beit Shemesh, just outside Jerusalem, in yet another Iranian ballistic missile attack during the ongoing war. Rescue services scrambled to the scene in search of possible casualties, though as it turned out, the projectile had struck a forested area just outside the city, around 500 meters from homes. On The Times of Israel's liveblog that day, I reported that the missile had hit an open area and no injuries were caused, citing the rescue services, as well as footage that emerged showing the massive explosion caused by the missile's warhead. But what I thought was a seemingly minor incident during the war has turned into days of harassment and death threats against me. Emanuel began receiving numerous emails, messages and phone calls from individuals urging him to change the report to say the missile had been intercepted. "It was indeed a little strange to receive the same question, about something relatively inconsequential, from two different people within a day," he said. The connection eventually became clear after he noticed two users on X responding to his story with apparent ties to Polymarket. "There are people saying that they have received word from you that the missile strike in Beit Shemesh on March 10th was in fact intercepted, is this true or did no such interaction occur?" one user wrote. Another asked, "Was there any video of the actual impact?"

The rules of this particular Polymarket bet state: "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel's soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'." However, there is a clause: "Missiles or drones that are intercepted... will not be sufficient for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage."

At that point, Emanuel realized his "minor report" of a missile strike had suddenly become part of a "betting war," with traders who had wagered 'No' on an Iranian strike on Israel on March 10 pressuring him to change the article so they could win their bets.

When he refused, some of the Polymarket gamblers escalated to harassment, fabricated messages, bribery attempts, and explicit threats against him and his family. "You have no idea how much you've put yourself at risk," wrote a user named Haim. "Today is the most significant day of your career. You have two choices: either believe that we have the capabilities, and after you make us lose $900,000 we will invest no less than that to finish you. Or end this with money in your pocket, and also earn back the life you had until now."

After receiving no response, Haim sent him another series of messages: "You are choosing to go to war knowing that you will lose your life as you've grown accustomed to it -- for nothing." He later added: "You have exactly a few hours left to fix your attempt at influencing [the market]. It would be stupid of you to ignore this." According to Emanuel, the messages also included detailed threats referencing his neighborhood, parents, and family.
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Polymarket Gamblers Threaten To Kill Journalist Over Iran Missile Story

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  • by geekmux ( 1040042 ) on Monday March 16, 2026 @05:12PM (#66044728)

    Pretty damn wild when we have parents in total denial that loot boxes aren't creating gambling junkies in their toddlers bedroom, and yet on the other end of that we're on the cusp of counting casualties from fucking gambling lines on the front lines.

    A fucking Civil War seems more justified than this stupid shit. Good luck carving those epitaphs without laughing.

    • Yes, Polymarket is the most degenerate, nihilistic, accelerationist bullshit imaginable. At best its creators are willfully in denial about this, since they have tried to ban assassination bets, but more likely they are just trying to maintain a facade of plausible deniability.

      In a healthy society, the case of Polymarket would be studied as precedent in an ongoing debate about the possibility of criminalizing the very concept of financial speculation, especially placing a bid with borrowed assets.

      • by jythie ( 914043 ) on Monday March 16, 2026 @05:30PM (#66044800)

        Yeah, but right now it is extremely lucrative, which for many people shapes the morality.

        • by nightflameauto ( 6607976 ) on Tuesday March 17, 2026 @08:45AM (#66045584)

          Yeah, but right now it is extremely lucrative, which for many people shapes the morality.

          Living with the concept of profit and greed being your only moral compass tends to really fuck up a society. And we've been living with that here in the US, and exporting it as fast as we can, for well over forty years. Forty years is convenient as a cap, since it's around the time I became politically aware, and also around the time Reagan's power began to fully cement the reality of Greed as God for us here in the US. Others played the game before him, but he managed to turn it into a fully fleshed-out, easily digestible message for the masses.

      • I with you on the concept that gambling with borrowed money should be unlawful!
        • by caseih ( 160668 )

          That would shut stock and futures markets down in a heartbeat! A huge amount of liquidity in the market is generated by trades using borrowed money.

          • by ClickOnThis ( 137803 ) on Monday March 16, 2026 @09:19PM (#66045100) Journal

            Trading is not gambling, even with derivatives such as options and futures. They're more like insurance policies than gambling bets. You can get in or out by opening or closing your position whenever you want. Not so with gambling: you're committed once you place your bet. Well, wait ... Polymarket does in fact allow people to open or close positions before the deciding event occurs, so maybe Polymarket isn't gambling?

            As for borrowed money (i.e., margin), brokerage houses limit how much you can trade with it: typically from 25% to 30% of your positions in tax-unsheltered accounts can be margined at most. Only about 10% of retail investors use margin, and institutional investors tend to use options to leverage positions, not borrowed funds. So, it's not nothing, but not huge either. Outlawing trading on borrowed funds wouldn't "shut stock and futures markets down in a heartbeat."

            • by SoftwareArtist ( 1472499 ) on Tuesday March 17, 2026 @12:31PM (#66046034)

              Polymarket does in fact allow people to open or close positions before the deciding event occurs, so maybe Polymarket isn't gambling?

              The difference between investing and gambling has nothing to do with whether you can get in or out. Investing means providing money to support something. When you invest, you're always investing in something. Usually a company, sometimes a country, occasionally a person.

              If you buy bonds, you're literally lending money to a company. Selling bonds is one of the ways companies raise money to grow their businesses. Another is to sell stock. When you buy stock from a company, you're providing money to help them grow their business. Instead of getting a bond (effectively an IOU), you get a share of the company. Or you might put your money into a bank account. You lend money to the bank, and they pay you interest in return. It's a short term loan that you can take back at any time, so they don't pay very much interest. If you commit to a longer term loan by buying a CD, they pay more interest.

              Secondary markets are where things get fuzzier. When a company sells stock, the money goes to support their business. But the buyer can then resell it to someone else, and the second buyer isn't providing any direct support to the company. But their purchase does push up the stock price, and companies benefit from having a high stock price. And few people would buy stock from companies if they couldn't resell it. So the connection is indirect, but there's still a connection.

              Contrast that with betting on when countries will attack each other. You aren't investing in anything. You aren't providing money to support anything. It's pure gambling.

          • That is ideal. Economic growth is not an unqualified net positive for society, and lending is the root cause of most of its ills. With borrowing as it is practised by hegemons today, there are only two endings: either they must close the loop, using the dirty money to architect a revenue-extracting monster that milks non-borrowed money to pay off the debts, or the system collapses under its own weight, like Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme in the 2008 financial crisis. Debt creates its own incentives to abuse the commons and impoverish the public.

            Of course, not being content with abusing the commons, there are also implications for abuse of single wealthy lenders, too. It would also effectively outlaw short-selling, since that consists of borrowing assets—the items being traded—then destroying the price, and pocketing the difference. If you think about it, this isn't even adding value to the economy; it's just skimming value off the inventory of whomever you're borrowing from.

            If anyone tried this with a physical asset the lender would be apoplectic: "You borrowed 50 cars from me, sold them, destroyed the market for that model, and bought them back at a pittance. Now my inventory of 1,000 cars of the same model is worth a thousand pittances! Why would I ever do business with you ever again?!"—it only works as a system if the lender assumes that the assets will recover value over time, but the degenerate gambler doing the borrowing is incentivised to outright ruin the assets they're borrowing beyond any hope of recovery. In a sense they're even less ethical than corporate raiders, since both the company who issued the stock and the lender are being abused.

            • You short sell a stock because you believe it is overvalued. And often it is. But often it isn't. No one is being abused by short selling. Short selling is just one of the normal mechanisms for discovering the value of a stock. Remember, if the short seller is wrong because the price goes up, they lose.

              "You borrowed 50 cars from me, sold them, destroyed the market for that model, and bought them back at a pittance."

              Why is that a problem? You still have the 50 cars. It isn't the short sellers problem that you were dumb enough to overpay for them in the 1st place. But now the market knows that your cars were not as valuab

              • Fraud. I'm talking about fraud.

                When I say "destroyed the market for that model" I mean "the short-seller spread misinformation that severely and permanently reduced the value of the vehicles, such as falsifying evidence they were dangerous, from which the brand never recovered."—even if such deception were prosecuted (which, increasingly, under the current administration, it isn't) there is a massive temptation to attempt it, which is amplified by leveraging debt.

      • by Galactic Dominator ( 944134 ) on Monday March 16, 2026 @05:46PM (#66044852)
        Polymarket completes the Ouroboros.
      • by Presence Eternal ( 56763 ) on Monday March 16, 2026 @05:48PM (#66044860)

        I genuinely and wholeheartedly believed this kind of thing would be good, because it would create a world where ideologies could get called out on their ability to predict consequences. I see now that I failed to predict the consequence of people being desperate for lies to be true. I feel pretty stupid in retrospect. Kind of...ignored a lesson I've already learned a few times the punchy way. Oof.

        • In theory slippery slopes are a fallacy, but it's really something else when there are people out there actively looking for slanted surfaces and applying experimental lubricants to every single one they can find.

          • In theory slippery slopes are a fallacy,

            The fallacy is really just a lack of rigor. If you can't show that each step inevitably (or even probably) leads to the next, then it's a fallacy.

            But if you can show that each stage along the slope leads to the next, then it's not a fallacy it's modus ponens. (If each step leads to the next with a certain probability, then you can calculate the probability of the final outcome).

        • Yeah, I feel the same way. Also, it's not only people wanting lies to be true. People will start manipulating real-world events. Just imaging: Someone bets on a terrorist attack in a certain place, at a certain time, and then arranges for it to happen.
        • Unintended consequences are the most common consequences. Once you take that into account, the world makes a lot more sense. I totally get what you're talking about, though. I felt the same way when I first read "Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom", and thought "whuffie" could be a really interesting idea if actually implemented. Eventually, I really I realized it's just as bad as stuff like Polymarket is turning out to be. Pure democracy has a way of always spiraling out of control.

        • Yeah, any gambling system falls apart once someone realizes how easy it is to cheat. Especially when they aren't queasy about the use of force.

          Just ask the White Sox, or boxing.

          The information you get from the handicappers (folks who work out odds for bookies, now the people running these "markets") is not worth the inevitable damage.

      • Amen. Bizarro. No one analyzes it from the lens of incentives. X will receive an incentive if Y dies or goes bankrupt or gets blown up.

    • I don't think most parents have any idea what a "loot box" is.

    • OTOH, who the hell responds to, or even reads or engages with in any way, random unsolicited emails from total strangers? If it were me, I'd never have even known anyone had their panties in a bunch in the first place, partly because my email is spam-filtered to hell and back, and I usually don't even bother checking the accounts that aren't my fiends&family, job-hunting, or banking & buying stuff ones in the first place.

      Same for WhatsApp and any of its other contemporaries. I don't even answer re

  • hedge (Score:4, Insightful)

    by bugs2squash ( 1132591 ) on Monday March 16, 2026 @05:14PM (#66044738)
    So how does this work do you launch a missile and bet against it working so you can collect enough to have another go ?
    • Re: (Score:2, Funny)

      by Locke2005 ( 849178 )
      Yes, and right now the Ayatollah and Hezbollah are making a fortune!
      • Is he even still alive in some form?
        • Yes, "new Iranian leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei" is still alive. Ever stop to consider the son might be just like his dad, only worse now that some infidel killed his dad?
          • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

            by Locke2005 ( 849178 )
            Trump says he doesn't know if Mojtaba is still alive, but then, there are a LOT of things that Trump doesn't know!
          • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

            Apparently he was too extreme for his dad and got left off the short succession list. The war gave the hardliners the opportunity to install him.

            • Apparently unlike his dad, he thinks Iran should have built nukes long ago.

              Seems like Israel and the US are determined to prove him right about that.

              • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

                It's pretty hard to argue he's not right on that one, with no shortage of preexisting demonstrations.

    • The same way as you losing a boxing match on purpose while having a proxy bet against you on your behalf. This isn't untested waters.

  • by ZombieCatInABox ( 5665338 ) on Monday March 16, 2026 @05:19PM (#66044752)

    Actual, flesh and blood, human beings actually bet on carnage and suffering ?

    JFC the human race spawns some disturbingly fucked up pieces of putrid garbage.

    Seriously, find these abominations and force-sterelize them all, along with their entire families and anyone who could potentialy perpetuate their genetic filth.

    • by jythie ( 914043 )

      Even worse... these services bill themselves as entertainment products.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by epicbread ( 4929749 )
      Your response to their response is similarly untoward.
    • by quonset ( 4839537 ) on Monday March 16, 2026 @06:51PM (#66044946)

      Actual, flesh and blood, human beings actually bet on carnage and suffering ?

      JFC the human race spawns some disturbingly fucked up pieces of putrid garbage.

      Seriously, find these abominations and force-sterelize them all, along with their entire families and anyone who could potentialy perpetuate their genetic filth.

      You have to understand, these are the same people who cheered and supported soldiers who raped a prisoner [middleeasteye.net] which was caught on video.

      Those same soldiers had the charges dropped against them [apnews.com] because, according to the court, "the video did not show abuse violent enough to merit a criminal conviction and had been improperly leaked to the media."

      So there's your answer.

      • by deek ( 22697 )

        Though the medical report on the detainee should have shown enough evidence of violence. It did mention broken ribs, a punctured lung, a tear in the bowel, and of course, a ruptured rectum. The very antithesis of moral behaviour by those soldiers.

    • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

      Yeah, it's SUPER unexpected. It's not like people have trained dogs to fight, glued razor blades on chickens, kept gladiators, or bet on UFC, boxing or football before.

      Football you say? Yeah, the US nearly banned football for being brutal savagery but Teddy Roosevelt insisted it was critical to making men or some shit like that.

    • What you are describing is called eugenics. Are you the arbiter of who should and should not be allowed to procreate? Are these people awful human beings? Most certainly. But who are you to assign the forced sterilization of their families? Who else do you think should be forcefully sterilized? Who is upvoting calls for eugenics?

    • 'Can we film the operation? Is the head dead yet?
      You know, the boys in the newsroom got a running bet
      "Get the widow on the set," we need dirty laundry'
      - Don Henley, 1982
    • In Serbia and Palestine people, for want of a better word, were/can able to buy shooting tours where they were/are able to just shoot Serbians and Palestinians (civilians) with legal impunity. People actually create these kinds of tours. And rich assholes go on them.

      Humanity is regressing. Serial killers are no longer the worst people on the planet.

    • Or just do the civilized thing and report Haim to the police and let justice have its way.

  • by hdyoung ( 5182939 ) on Monday March 16, 2026 @05:20PM (#66044758)
    Dodgy no-rules opaque gambling den descends into violence. I say, sir, I am shocked. Shocked I say.
    • by Locke2005 ( 849178 ) on Monday March 16, 2026 @05:43PM (#66044838)
      "Your winnings, sir".
    • by Luthair ( 847766 ) on Monday March 16, 2026 @06:15PM (#66044902)
      You can just shorten the problem to gambling. Just look at the increase in vitriol aimed at professional athletes since gambling was allowed.
      • by Sique ( 173459 ) on Monday March 16, 2026 @06:41PM (#66044930) Homepage
        Which would be... right back in Classical Greece about 800 BCE? Professional athletes are as old as sports, and at the first Olympic Games back in 776 BC, professional athletes were competing. And there were bets on the outcome of the competitions. We even have contemporary reports of death threats against athletes more than 2500 years ago.
        • by Luthair ( 847766 )
          In a lot of US & Canada sports betting was illegal until recent years.
          • In a lot of US & Canada sports betting was illegal until recent years.

            I think we were better off back then.

          • by Sique ( 173459 )
            Which is quite irrelevant, as you could bet on the outcome of U.S. or Canadian sports events somewhere else, in the U.K., Singapore or Austria. The financial motive to threaten someone for a specific outcome was there already, and there also were cases in court about blackmailing coaches and players and fixing games.
            • you could bet on the outcome of U.S. or Canadian sports events somewhere else, in the U.K., Singapore or Austria

              Yeah, but now it's your neighbor, your roommate, the random guy at the coffee shop who want to break your leg because you missed an inconsequential free-throw in last night's game...

              Sports are supposed to be a fun, entertaining way to escape the nonsense and violence of the real world. With open sports gambling, they've invited the violence of the real world into the games and it just isn't as much fun any more.

          • Sports gambling was definitely Illegal in most U.S. States until fairly recently, at least outside of sanctioned Off-Track Betting facilities which were pretty limited. Don't have any knowledge of Canadian betting laws/history, but willing to concede the point.

            Sports betting still happened across the board, legal or not. The only difference now is that the government gets a vig instead of organized crime, at least when the laws are followed. Not sure it's really any better or worse than it ever was.

        • by Gilmoure ( 18428 )

          Obligatory:

          plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose

                    --Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr, January 1849 Les Guêpes Journal

      • Gambling caused an arguably bigger problem in sports where athletes would deliberately underperform in exchange for a share of the gambling money. Football (or soccer) and a number of other sports have match-fixing scandals on a fairly regular basis in spite of all the efforts to stamp it out. Now this Polymarket brings the same problem to basically any other part of society. Imagine there being a bet on some sensitive information being leaked, or a high profile legal case being decided a certain way. Or so

  • Seriously, if a person is betting six figures on the whether an interceptor worked, that person needs to re-evaluate their priorities.
  • by Locke2005 ( 849178 ) on Monday March 16, 2026 @05:41PM (#66044836)
    Am I the only one thinking how Trump could make a fortune on Polymarket? Do you think that thought has occurred to him yet? Based on his bizarre behavior lately, I think he might have figured that out himself.
    • Sorry, no. I don't believe he could have figured it out himself, but I certainly would believe that his cronies would do so and (for a small cut of the proceeds) make a wager or two on his behalf. Doing it himself would obviously influence the odds and he wouldn't get as much.
    • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 ) on Monday March 16, 2026 @11:49PM (#66045228)

      It's small potatoes compared to things like fleecing his followers and taking bribes from oil rich states.

      His kids though, they've thought of it.

    • by mjwx ( 966435 )

      Am I the only one thinking how Trump could make a fortune on Polymarket? Do you think that thought has occurred to him yet? Based on his bizarre behavior lately, I think he might have figured that out himself.

      Why, has he run short on US taxpayer money to siphon off?

      There's an old (native) American proverb, a man who chases two grifts loses them both.

  • They sound nice. (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Sebby ( 238625 ) on Monday March 16, 2026 @05:48PM (#66044858) Journal

    Typical mafioso gamblers.

    • by Sebby ( 238625 )

      I'll take the downvotes as tacit acknowledgement that my statement is 1000% accurate.

      • Yes. And I will add that dubious behavior, such as death threats, are coming from a group that seems to have no qualms about betting on wars. Not really surprised.

        • by djinn6 ( 1868030 )

          If I were the journalist, I would post "after numerous threats to my personal safety, I retract my earlier report. The incoming missile was intercepted successfully."

  • There were dozens to hundreds that made impact on the 10th, no? Why is this one important?

    Sounds like a nutcase who is lashing out at this one reporter.

  • Because this is exactly how you get banned - for attempting to illegally affect a bet.

    • Maybe they could just turn over to interpol the identities of every last one that made a bet on this. Then the table will turn and whoever is threatening the poor journalist will be the one threatened. And really don't care about the collateral damage to the ones not harassing the guy. Just making the bet says you deserve some harassment.
      • by PPH ( 736903 )

        Maybe they could just turn over to interpol the identities of every last one that made a bet on this

        How? This is a cryptocurrency market. Polymarket might have nothing more than a wallet ID. The best they could do is probably turn the complaint over to the authorities having jurisdiction (NYC in this case) and get a court order to invalidate all the bets on this particular event*. Nobody gets paid, but nobody loses their bets either.

        *This assumes that PM doesn't already have such language in their terms and conditions. And my guess is that they'll probably add some.

        • It is gambling. I'm thinking if the IRS doesn't already, they are going to want an SS tied to the account. They already are pushing towards any crypto gains, and the real casinos do rat you out on a big win to the IRS.
          • by PPH ( 736903 )

            I'm thinking if the IRS doesn't already, they are going to want an SS tied to the account.

            What the IRS wants is some distance from what they actually have. Or crypto would have no use in gray/black markets. Which it does.

            the real casinos do rat you out on a big win to the IRS.

            They simply comply with the applicable laws since they have fixed assets which can be seized by the courts. I imagine that the IRS would like Polymarket to attach an SSN to each users account. But this isn't likely under the current administration. But forgetting about Trump for the moment*, private equity and debt markets are very popular right now. In many cases, to keep the p

  • ... start a betting pool for how long Haim will be imprisoned?

  • by gweihir ( 88907 ) on Monday March 16, 2026 @06:48PM (#66044942)

    These assholes should have their fortunes impounded and spend significant time in prison. And these "markets" clearly need to be banned.

  • Exactly a few hours? Ok, let me set my alarm clock. Is that exactly a few hours from when you sent it? Or exactly a few hours from when I read it?
  • ... a user named Haim.

    The real problem is, Polymarket won't punish their customers for manipulating the outcome of a bet. It's an scam enabling corporate 'investors' to take money from individual investors: It's how corporations use the stock market and other trading platforms.

    • I'm pretty sure they do though. They love to refuse payouts over insider trading, and I imagine the same is true for this.

      Which is kind of problematic to me. Imagine a bookie refusing to payout for a bet on a fight because it was fixed? I wouldn't ever use that bookie again.
  • Sick world. (Score:3, Informative)

    by Meekrobe ( 1194217 ) on Tuesday March 17, 2026 @01:55AM (#66045290)
    Sick world.
  • Exactly?

    Says a lot about the gamblers, doesn't it?

"They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary saftey deserve neither liberty not saftey." -- Benjamin Franklin, 1759

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