US Senators Ban Themselves From Prediction Markets Trading (cnbc.com) 56
The U.S. Senate unanimously passed a rule banning senators from trading on prediction markets effective immediately. CNBC reports: The move came amid rising concern about insider trading on prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, and about event contracts that can involve death or violence. On April 22, Kalshi said it had suspended and fined one U.S. Senate candidate and two candidates for the House of Representatives for political insider trading on their own campaigns.
Earlier on Thursday, a group of Democratic members of Congress called on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to issue a rule "that prevents insider trading and corruption in the market and prohibits event contracts on the outcome of elections, war and military actions in the U.S. or abroad, sports, and government actions without a valid economic hedging interest." Kalshi and Polymarket both praised the Senate's action. "I applaud the Senate for passing this resolution to ban Senators and their offices from trading on prediction markets," Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour wrote in a post on X. "Kalshi already proactively blocks members of congress and enforces against insider trading. This is a great step to increase trust in our markets by making it an industry standard," Mansour said. "Now, let's pass this in the House!"
Polymarket, in its own post on X, said, "We're in full support of this. Our Rulebook & Terms of Service already prohibit such conduct, but codifying this into law is a step forward for the industry. Happy to help move this forward however we can."
Earlier on Thursday, a group of Democratic members of Congress called on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to issue a rule "that prevents insider trading and corruption in the market and prohibits event contracts on the outcome of elections, war and military actions in the U.S. or abroad, sports, and government actions without a valid economic hedging interest." Kalshi and Polymarket both praised the Senate's action. "I applaud the Senate for passing this resolution to ban Senators and their offices from trading on prediction markets," Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour wrote in a post on X. "Kalshi already proactively blocks members of congress and enforces against insider trading. This is a great step to increase trust in our markets by making it an industry standard," Mansour said. "Now, let's pass this in the House!"
Polymarket, in its own post on X, said, "We're in full support of this. Our Rulebook & Terms of Service already prohibit such conduct, but codifying this into law is a step forward for the industry. Happy to help move this forward however we can."
Pinky Swear! (Score:5, Informative)
This is an internal rule not a law.
It is enforceable via self-policing (committee investigates and votes on guilt and recommends penalties to the chamber). Like most rules violations, the penalties are variable (pay a fine? expulsion? somewhere in between?). The Senate Rules Committee can also quietly choose not to renew this rule at any time in the future.
It is a good thing... but don't read too much into it. It is a gesture.
Re:Pinky Swear! (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Pinky Swear! (Score:5, Informative)
It's only illegal if you're a democrat.
Thats rich, considering the spokesperson for Congressional Insider Trading is on hell of an infamous Democrat.
Remember when Pelosi had the nerve to defend that corrupt shit as a fucking job perk?
Her net worth certainly remembers. So does every professional investor she made look like an amateur.
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To be fair to Pelosi, that's not a high bar to clear. I'm no genius investor by any means (I make plenty of missteps), but even I make most professional investors look like amateurs.
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To be fair to Pelosi, that's not a high bar to clear. I'm no genius investor by any means (I make plenty of missteps), but even I make most professional investors look like amateurs.
To be factual about your retort, she didn’t just beat any professional investor. She beat all of them. For very illegal reasons.
Questioning the quality of the criminal while dismissing the crime, is the true corruption.
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Those in power can choose to let members in favor (or their own party) get away with violations and punish those who are not.
A good example of letting it slide is Matt Gaetz. He was very clearly shielded from the consequences of his misdeeds. On the other hand, members of both parties have been forced out recently for violations.
It is all political. How bad does it look to let it slide vs how useful having the member owe leadership a favor...
Re:Pinky Swear! (Score:4, Informative)
Re:Pinky Swear! (Score:5, Interesting)
Some senators, like Mark Kelly, have been trying to pass a ban on any stock trading by senators at all... but it hasn't gotten a lot of traction, so many of them don't want to give up their sweet sweet insider profits.
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There's no reasonable way a legislator could be sufficiently divested so that their legislative actions cannot affect their holdings... even if reduced to mattresses stuffed with cash. It would be a rule ripe for selective enforcement.
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And of course... I expect some people will assume this is related to stock trading when it's completely separate.
It is a good thing, yeah... but doesn't go anywhere near far enough.
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I'm a Democrat and I'm not afraid or stupid enough to run away from it. Actually, I'm not even loyal or a fan-- it's simple: the enemy of my enemy is my friend. I'll join for now.
The GOP is evil as fuck and I'll side with anybody, even Iran just to reset the GOP back to the corrupt 1980s GOP who look like Democrats compared to the fascists of today.
Wake up (but don't go woke.)
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They are far worse than assholes. Guardians Of Pedophiles. You can take your middle ground religion and shove it up your middle. Fool, you don't know what an overton window is. Furthermore, Jesus was an extremist along with the Devil so both of them are therefore bad.
The Iranians are not going to kill anybody here; that would be quite stupid (unless it's unpopular leadership) and they actually act quite sane for a theocratic society that Christian Nationalists would admire if it was the "correct" religion.
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The Supreme Court ordered the records sealed until after the election. That was thanks to Trump's Supreme Court picks.
Might I also remind you the infamous wife of Bill Clinton the island hopper, ran her own email server that 'accidentally' fell into a vat of Bleachbit.
Which was investigated and found not to be illegal, just poor judgement. Just like Colin Powell
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No, the U.S. Supreme Court did not order Jeffrey Epstein records sealed before 2024. Instead, a federal district court judge in New York (Loretta Preska) ordered the unsealing of hundreds of documents in December 2023, which began to be released in early January 2024. These records originated from a 2015 civil lawsuit.
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FYI, most the time Clinton was on the jet was with his staff because use of the jet was a donation and not "donation" because they actually had the staff flying around Africa with it doing actual stuff. Not saying something didn't ever happen but they've got nothing and most the flights are easily accounted for. The wife was dragged in under oath over nothing and yet they won't even bring in the high end model from the hooker agency to testify (guess who that is?) or Pam Bondi (who prostituted her ethics;
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If all that's true why isn't she in jail?
I mean they ran their campaign on "lock her up" and yet she's walking around!
Whats the problem? They've had all the time in the world, and a totally corrupted justice department.
Why isn't Hillary in Jail? Not even Indicted? Ever?
Why Not?
If what you say is true...
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If you think Jesus was a moderate you are too stupid to bother with. I'll turn my other cheek your way...my ass cheek.
People not lifting a finger over something easy that results in many preventable deaths is WORSE than purposely murdering people. You have reason and motive to kill "bad" protestors. To kill innocent random people simply because you don't want to change habits or pay pennies more... that is worse despite being more soft. think about it (other people not the parent.)
I find Iranian mullahs no
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it sounds like it's all for show.
The penalty I read on this was 10% of the contract.
so, you bet on something you have inside info on, pay a 10% penalty, and pocket 90%.
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It should be for all of government
It should be for all of people.
It pretty much was, until gambling addicts wanted to re-brand gambling as "predictive markets" to excuse and dismiss any addiction to gambling or the dangers thereof.
Now a 12-year old is free to become the best bookie they can running a PokebetsGo ring in the lunchroom every day while those "real" bookies rot in prison for their 'crimes'.
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Because The White House would demand they vote against anything that limits corruption within the white house or they don't know about yet. Once somebody tells Orange Man it's bad, he will be for it. Then they will too; but the suckers will believe a silly senate rule is taking action.
Only after (Score:2)
They made tons of money betting.
If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. (Score:3, Informative)
GOP is a mutual fund that tracks the stock profiles of Republicans, NANC tracks the Democrats.
Full discloure, I own just a little of each - I thought it would be interesting. There may well be similar funds - have not looked.
Since Kalsi is subject to US regulators, it is illegal for US citizens to use Kalshi for insider trading. Of course, congress does not necessarily play by the same rules as us peons.
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And as her +70.9% gains in 2024 were somewhat extraordinary, Nancy Pelosi spawned a host of similar apps - I believe autopilot has subsequently been broadened to include other lawmakers of both parties.
Autopilot
PelosiTracker.app
Quiver Quantitative
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GOP is a mutual fund that tracks the stock profiles of Republicans, NANC tracks the Democrats.
The problem with such an approach is timing. When members of Congress execute these trades, they have months before they have to report it (and many of them couldn't even be bothered to do meet that lax deadline). So GOP and NANC are like index funds, if the S&P500 reported with a 3-month delay. Congress can still make curiously well-timed trades, but by the time you hear about it, it's late enough to not be of much use to you, plebian.
group missing (Score:2)
... Senators and their offices ...
What about their families, friends, etc.?
Biggest loophole (Score:2)
\o/ (Score:1)
That's a commendable step and naturally builds on the fact that information cannot be transferred between individuals in-the-know and others.
Uhh... wait, what?
Timing (Score:2)
So they pass along the info for $$$ (Score:2)
cute clogan (Score:1)
Public Service today is about self enrichment! (Score:2)
Well duh (Score:2)
and the only penalty is being fined 10% (Score:2)
This doesn't seem like a bill with any teeth that would prevent this.
The penalty they list... a fine of 10% the contract value. so, you win $400K, get fined $40K, and packet $360K.
This seems like it was all for show.
but there was a huge surge in betting (Score:2)
Truly disappointing (Score:2)
Extreme potential for Funny, but nada.
What about SO, friends, etc? (Score:2)
Meaning partner, children, friends, etc... can all hear information ahead of time too. Just think Nancy Pelosi's husband who seemed to beat the market reliably.
onion headline (Score:2)
Members of congress bet on congress passing bill banning betting on congress.
Will only apply (Score:2)
To "senators". People in the "Executive Branch", cabinet, presidents, etc *need* the incentive of personal profit to strive to do their fucking job - for which they get paid by the People.
We had this argument in the 1840s or so - when salaries were introduced for parliamentarians so that you didn't have to be independently wealthy to have a voice in government. They are employees, and unless they're on below-minimum wage, are not allowed to hustle for tips while serving their employers.
Why just senators? (Score:2)