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Government The Almighty Buck United States

US Senators Ban Themselves From Prediction Markets Trading (cnbc.com) 56

The U.S. Senate unanimously passed a rule banning senators from trading on prediction markets effective immediately. CNBC reports: The move came amid rising concern about insider trading on prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, and about event contracts that can involve death or violence. On April 22, Kalshi said it had suspended and fined one U.S. Senate candidate and two candidates for the House of Representatives for political insider trading on their own campaigns.

Earlier on Thursday, a group of Democratic members of Congress called on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to issue a rule "that prevents insider trading and corruption in the market and prohibits event contracts on the outcome of elections, war and military actions in the U.S. or abroad, sports, and government actions without a valid economic hedging interest." Kalshi and Polymarket both praised the Senate's action.
"I applaud the Senate for passing this resolution to ban Senators and their offices from trading on prediction markets," Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour wrote in a post on X. "Kalshi already proactively blocks members of congress and enforces against insider trading. This is a great step to increase trust in our markets by making it an industry standard," Mansour said. "Now, let's pass this in the House!"

Polymarket, in its own post on X, said, "We're in full support of this. Our Rulebook & Terms of Service already prohibit such conduct, but codifying this into law is a step forward for the industry. Happy to help move this forward however we can."
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US Senators Ban Themselves From Prediction Markets Trading

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  • Pinky Swear! (Score:5, Informative)

    by Local ID10T ( 790134 ) <ID10T.L.USER@gmail.com> on Thursday April 30, 2026 @09:27PM (#66121470) Homepage

    This is an internal rule not a law.

    It is enforceable via self-policing (committee investigates and votes on guilt and recommends penalties to the chamber). Like most rules violations, the penalties are variable (pay a fine? expulsion? somewhere in between?). The Senate Rules Committee can also quietly choose not to renew this rule at any time in the future.

    It is a good thing... but don't read too much into it. It is a gesture.

    • Re:Pinky Swear! (Score:4, Insightful)

      by algaeman ( 600564 ) on Thursday April 30, 2026 @10:05PM (#66121506)
      It's only illegal if you're a democrat.
      • Re:Pinky Swear! (Score:5, Informative)

        by geekmux ( 1040042 ) on Friday May 01, 2026 @05:18AM (#66121854)

        It's only illegal if you're a democrat.

        Thats rich, considering the spokesperson for Congressional Insider Trading is on hell of an infamous Democrat.

        Remember when Pelosi had the nerve to defend that corrupt shit as a fucking job perk?

        Her net worth certainly remembers. So does every professional investor she made look like an amateur.

        • by BranMan ( 29917 )

          To be fair to Pelosi, that's not a high bar to clear. I'm no genius investor by any means (I make plenty of missteps), but even I make most professional investors look like amateurs.

          • To be fair to Pelosi, that's not a high bar to clear. I'm no genius investor by any means (I make plenty of missteps), but even I make most professional investors look like amateurs.

            To be factual about your retort, she didn’t just beat any professional investor. She beat all of them. For very illegal reasons.

            Questioning the quality of the criminal while dismissing the crime, is the true corruption.

      • Those in power can choose to let members in favor (or their own party) get away with violations and punish those who are not.

        A good example of letting it slide is Matt Gaetz. He was very clearly shielded from the consequences of his misdeeds. On the other hand, members of both parties have been forced out recently for violations.

        It is all political. How bad does it look to let it slide vs how useful having the member owe leadership a favor...

    • Re:Pinky Swear! (Score:4, Informative)

      by mADneSs ( 167736 ) on Thursday April 30, 2026 @10:08PM (#66121508)
      Also doesn't appear to ban spouse/family members from placing bets either. And there's always the 'friend loophole'. And even after all of that, it's still open season on insider stock trading.
      • Re:Pinky Swear! (Score:5, Interesting)

        by 93 Escort Wagon ( 326346 ) on Thursday April 30, 2026 @10:54PM (#66121558)

        Some senators, like Mark Kelly, have been trying to pass a ban on any stock trading by senators at all... but it hasn't gotten a lot of traction, so many of them don't want to give up their sweet sweet insider profits.

        • Bribery is a Republican ideal. The Democrats get jealous and copy, but the Republicans are the experts.
        • There's no reasonable way a legislator could be sufficiently divested so that their legislative actions cannot affect their holdings... even if reduced to mattresses stuffed with cash. It would be a rule ripe for selective enforcement.

    • And of course... I expect some people will assume this is related to stock trading when it's completely separate.

      It is a good thing, yeah... but doesn't go anywhere near far enough.

    • I'm a Democrat and I'm not afraid or stupid enough to run away from it. Actually, I'm not even loyal or a fan-- it's simple: the enemy of my enemy is my friend. I'll join for now.

      The GOP is evil as fuck and I'll side with anybody, even Iran just to reset the GOP back to the corrupt 1980s GOP who look like Democrats compared to the fascists of today.

      Wake up (but don't go woke.)

    • it sounds like it's all for show.

      The penalty I read on this was 10% of the contract.

      so, you bet on something you have inside info on, pay a 10% penalty, and pocket 90%.

  • They made tons of money betting.

  • by gewalker ( 57809 ) <`Gary.Walker' `at' `AstraDigital.com'> on Thursday April 30, 2026 @11:45PM (#66121602)

    GOP is a mutual fund that tracks the stock profiles of Republicans, NANC tracks the Democrats.
    Full discloure, I own just a little of each - I thought it would be interesting. There may well be similar funds - have not looked.

    Since Kalsi is subject to US regulators, it is illegal for US citizens to use Kalshi for insider trading. Of course, congress does not necessarily play by the same rules as us peons.

    • And as her +70.9% gains in 2024 were somewhat extraordinary, Nancy Pelosi spawned a host of similar apps - I believe autopilot has subsequently been broadened to include other lawmakers of both parties.

      Autopilot
      PelosiTracker.app
      Quiver Quantitative

    • by necro81 ( 917438 )

      GOP is a mutual fund that tracks the stock profiles of Republicans, NANC tracks the Democrats.

      The problem with such an approach is timing. When members of Congress execute these trades, they have months before they have to report it (and many of them couldn't even be bothered to do meet that lax deadline). So GOP and NANC are like index funds, if the S&P500 reported with a 3-month delay. Congress can still make curiously well-timed trades, but by the time you hear about it, it's late enough to not be of much use to you, plebian.

  • ... Senators and their offices ...

    What about their families, friends, etc.?

  • Politicians and their employees are banned: What about family members? This is the usual excuse for profiting from a government job: Creating an oversized 'inheritance'. But they don't let the working class climb the ladder of wealth.
  • That's a commendable step and naturally builds on the fact that information cannot be transferred between individuals in-the-know and others.

    Uhh... wait, what?

  • You just know that this "rule" was passed immediately after several senators placed bets on whether or not Congress would pass a rule limiting trading on prediction markets.
  • So they let friends or family know so they can make bets. Like Nancy Pelosi did with her husband.....
  • “‘Serving in Congress is an honor, not a side hustle.’ Cute slogan. Meanwhile the blockchain is over here coughing politely.” Bold move banning prediction markets. Now they can get back to the traditional, analog forms of insider trading they’re more comfortable with.
  • Today individuals work in government to enrich themselves, their families and friends by feeding off public tax dollars. The days of selfless public service dropped by the wayside long ago. Now it is all about power and getting rich at the expense of those they rule and dominate.
  • "We already just do it on the stock market. Have you seen Pelosi?" - Congress, probably.
  • This doesn't seem like a bill with any teeth that would prevent this.
    The penalty they list... a fine of 10% the contract value. so, you win $400K, get fined $40K, and packet $360K.
    This seems like it was all for show.

  • on it would pass at the last instance,
  • Extreme potential for Funny, but nada.

  • Meaning partner, children, friends, etc... can all hear information ahead of time too. Just think Nancy Pelosi's husband who seemed to beat the market reliably.

  • Members of congress bet on congress passing bill banning betting on congress.

  • To "senators". People in the "Executive Branch", cabinet, presidents, etc *need* the incentive of personal profit to strive to do their fucking job - for which they get paid by the People.

    We had this argument in the 1840s or so - when salaries were introduced for parliamentarians so that you didn't have to be independently wealthy to have a voice in government. They are employees, and unless they're on below-minimum wage, are not allowed to hustle for tips while serving their employers.

  • I think it'd make more sense to ban at least all department heads, senate, house, state politicians from these because they have knowledge on stuffs that allow them to make trades in their favor.

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