OpenAI Files For IPO (cnn.com) 58
OpenAI has confidentially filed for an IPO, "setting it up for what may be the most highly anticipated market debut in recent history and a massive payday for early investors," reports CNN. The decision follows recent IPO announcements from Anthropic and SpaceX. From the report: OpenAI said it has not decided on timing yet. And because the filing is confidential, it's not yet clear how many shares the company plans to sell or at what price. "It may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company," it said in a post on its newsroom page. But the company said the filing "gives us the option to go public sooner if that ends up being best."
The transition to a public company will give Wall Street a window into OpenAI's finances as the company pours billions into AI infrastructure and computing resources. Investors dumped tech stocks last week as they questioned whether a recent run-up in those shares had gone too far. OpenAI was last valued at $852 billion after raising $122 billion in March, but it's faced pressure to demonstrate it can generate the cash to match that valuation.
The transition to a public company will give Wall Street a window into OpenAI's finances as the company pours billions into AI infrastructure and computing resources. Investors dumped tech stocks last week as they questioned whether a recent run-up in those shares had gone too far. OpenAI was last valued at $852 billion after raising $122 billion in March, but it's faced pressure to demonstrate it can generate the cash to match that valuation.
Re: the big drop (Score:2)
Re: (Score:3)
Yeah, but it's going to be quite a hunt to find an ETF that does NOT include any of the current obvious-cash-out IPOs.
Re: the big drop (Score:3)
Mid cap, small cap, ex-us. There are no shortages of ways to avoid holding these IPOs.
If you missing Dotcom 1.0 (Score:1)
Buckle up! (Score:5, Insightful)
Buckle up everyone - a bunch of new rich white assholes are about to join the fray...
Re: (Score:3)
Buckle up everyone - a bunch of new rich white assholes are about to join the fray...
and ordinary people's pension funds. this is a cricular money printing machine but it's all based on "valuation", someone has to provide actual liquidity for the cash-outs before it crashes.
Re: (Score:2, Insightful)
I think this is more about buying into who gets to be a member of the ruling elite in the coming automation apocalypse than anything else though.
AI can't be profitable as a business or a service withou
Re: (Score:2)
Dario Amodei and Sam Altman desperately need people to be afraid. They need to
Re:Buckle up! (Score:4, Insightful)
Re: (Score:1, Insightful)
IPO? (Score:5, Interesting)
IPO? I thought this was supposed to be non-profit...
Re: (Score:3)
Re:IPO? (Score:4, Insightful)
It should stop calling itself "Open" then
Re: (Score:3)
Also not going to happen.
Re: (Score:2)
Another notable "non profit" entity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
100,000 employees worldwide and they enjoy non profit tax free status.
Re: (Score:1)
To be fair, the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center you are pointing to is not publicly traded, and cannot be publicly traded (so no IPO). Because it is not-for-profit.
The GP's point is presumably that there is an incongruity in combining "not-for-profit" with "IPO." That's true. Of course, in OpenAI's case, it is technically not the parent non-profit foundation conducting the IPO, but a for-profit entity it spun off and has a controlling stake in. I imagine the GP knows this and was being sarcastic abo
Already spent my money on SpaceX (Score:4, Funny)
So no money for Sam.
Re: (Score:2)
OpenAI may just be the only IPO worse than SpaceX, so bright sides and all. Though Anthropic will be tossing its hat into that competition too.
Re:Already spent my money on SpaceX (Score:5, Funny)
the only IPO worse than SpaceX
Huh? All SpaceX needs to do is find an asteroid made out of gold and diamonds and it will 10x the investment.
All based on fake values (Score:3)
Re: (Score:1)
It's the tech way. When private capital runs out you have to raid the 401k and pension money.
Re: (Score:2)
How can a company be valued at $852,000 million dollars when they havenâ(TM)t made a cent of profit is beyond me.
Whenever you ask yourself that, just repeat in your mind: company valuations are based on expected future earnings.
Re: (Score:2)
But that's kinda the point. What future earnings, given that so far they have none? To make a profit, they would have to dramatically change their fees. As in: Quadruple at least. That's going to destroy the user base really quickly. And as Altavista found out: Once you are no longer synonymous with a service, you are easily replaced.
Re: All based on fake values (Score:2)
Expected future earnings. That first word often does a lot of heavy lifting in a nascent industry like AI. And yes, it probably does mean they'll need to raise their prices, but also that they'll be able to do just that and still stay in business.
Re: (Score:2)
I can read. Of course expected, that's implicit in "future" unless someone discovered clairvoyance.
So again, in other words: What do people base those expectations on when so far the company hasn't made any profit at all? In a profitable company, I can extrapolate. I can assume "with X additional cash raised, they can build Y more factories, selling Z more goods." - but for a company that is negative and is making a LOSS on every customer at the moment, growth does not equal profit, it equals more loss.
Re: All based on fake values (Score:5, Informative)
Its not just who remains after the bubble pops - its we dont know yet *which product* will pay the bills, and *then* who remains selling that product.
OpenAI has more users overall, but they have mainly "sold" a free / loss leader product. Anthropic has become more popular on the enterprise "maybe eliza doesnt pay the bills" business model. OpenAI pivots but if this were "search" its too early to figure out if either of these is google or they're yahoo and altavista.
Nvidia seems to be betting this is the PC + MPC redux and all these folks are trying to be IBM selling mainframes; which is less of a "worst timeline" but they're biased since their valuation already priced in the "mainframe" market. Democratizing AI is a larger addressable market for a chips seller whether its a real market or not.
Or the real business model could be elsewhere altogether - I still remember the early aughts when the future of growth for the interwebs was telecoms and iTV and Netflix was shipping CDs and the video streaming business was licensing codecs.
Re: (Score:2)
Profit means nothing. It's how quick you can get in and out of the market before the plebs lose their shirts.
Software playbook (Score:3, Informative)
It costs next to nothing to bring on a new customer since there's no widget to make and ship.
Growing marketshare is *the* priority. Give it away for free. Pay people to use it if you must.
Then once they're hooked, start charging licensing fees. Just a little. More for bigger customers. Maybe keep a free tier for personal use. A little times a huge userbase is enormous cashflow for a little bit of nre.
It's great cuz the customer supplies his own platform, pays for training his own people, and even pays for the electricity to run your product on premises.
Now about this building full of expensive and power-hungry silicon needed to deliver the ai hotness...
Re:Software playbook (Score:4, Insightful)
How do you get people hooked? I change LLM providers more often than I change my underwear.
Re: Software playbook (Score:4, Funny)
Re: (Score:3)
How do you get people hooked? I change LLM providers more often than I change my underwear.
Really? I have both synchronized at once a month, shower beforehand, which most models agree is the appropriate pace and most eco-friendly.
Re: (Score:2)
If the models aren't telling you to take the dirty underwear off before the shower and put the clean underwear on after it, maybe think about changing models earlier than scheduled.
Re: (Score:2)
You've got that backwards. It's much more efficient to shower while wearing your dirty clothing. You clean them and your body at the same time. Your socks are the only articles of clothing you need to remove as most only have one opening and no outlet. That allows crud to build up. Not an issue for shirts, pants, nor boxers.
Only having one pair of clothing means you need far less bedroom space which saving on housing costs too. There's so many side benefits.
Re: Software playbook (Score:1)
Why wear clothes at all?
I believe Altman is a dead man within 5 years (Score:1)
Altman made himself the face of AI and the Elon Musk further put a target on his back with the litigation trial. Any and all bad outcomes of AI still be blamed on him correct or not.
With how the AI datacenters are built in residencial areas, at some point a kid with a heart condition will die from the side effects of the noise. You already near stories of the screams of children at night where they have nightmares triggered by the constant vibration.
I fully believe one of these parents will eventually get
Re: (Score:2)
it's contagious (Score:1)
Sell it off to the suckers before they figure it o (Score:2)
You all will own these stocks (Score:4, Interesting)
Re: (Score:1)
I like XMAG as an ETF because it's SPY minus the Magnificent 7. I don't know if these AI companies are going to end up in the SPY but if they do, I hope the managers at XMAG will add them to the exclusion.
payday (Score:4, Interesting)
and a massive payday for early investors
That seems to be the goal of all these massive IPOs recently. For early investors to cash out before the bubble bursts.
Retail investors (Score:5, Insightful)
It's not a surprise all of those three are filling for IPO roughly at the same time. As the AI hype is starting to weaken and the bubble is closer to bursting (40% of the S&P500 is about AI investment, an insanely disproportionate share historically), the early investors (which I'm surprised are even mentioned) need to cash in while the companies are overvaluted in order to make money. They'll swoop back in when the share price is at its lowest and reflects more accurately the values of these companies. In the meantime, the retail investors (that is, the general population who are not aware of all this and only listen to the hype of AI and not the economists who say the contrary) will be left holding the bag.
imagine (Score:2)
OpenAI == Altavista, but Spacex is way ahead (Score:2)
Whatever you think about Musk, the fact is that Spacex has no competitors in launchers, it's not even close.