US-Iran Peace Agreement Prompts Stock Rally, Leaves Some Investors Skeptical and Questions on Speed of Resuming Oil Production (cnbc.com) 184
"Asian stocks rallied Monday while oil prices tumbled," reports CNBC, "after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a peace deal aimed at ending nearly four months of conflict..."
The strongest reaction was seen in energy markets. U.S. crude oil futures for July delivery were down 4.77% to $80.83 per barrel by 8:27 p.m. ET. Brent futures, the international benchmark, for August delivery traded about 4% lower to $83.77 per barrel. Asian equities surged. South Korea's Kospi jumped 5.1%, Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed 3.6%, and the broader Topix advanced 2.6%... The U.S. dollar index weakened 0.32% to 99.483, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 5 basis points to 4.423%, suggesting that investors were dialing back inflation concerns on easing energy prices. "The most immediate implication is a repricing of the inflation risk premium that markets have been carrying since the Strait closed," said Billy Leung, investment strategist at Global X ETFs...
Besides safe-haven Treasurys, gold also rose. "Gold is the interesting outlier here," Leung said. "In a clean risk-on trade, gold should be selling off as the geopolitical premium unwinds, but it is holding bid around $4,300, which tells you the market is not fully trusting the deal yet." Spot gold prices were up almost 2% at $4,302.19 per ounce. That skepticism reflects lingering uncertainty around the agreement, which remains unsigned and subject to implementation risks. [Josh Gilbert, lead Asia Pacific analyst at trading platform eToro] cautioned that "the deal isn't actually signed until June 19th, the details are still thin, and this conflict has shown more than once that headlines can turn on a dime."
Analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia also stressed that the oil outlook hinges on how quickly shipping and production can normalize. Vivek Dhar, head of commodities and sustainability research at CBA, expects Brent to fall to around $80 a barrel by year-end, assuming the Strait remains open and exports recover. However, he warned that damage to refining infrastructure, the presence of sea mines and uncertainty over tanker traffic could slow the return to normal operations. Even so, he said markets are likely to take comfort from the prospect that oil flows need only recover to around 60%-70% of pre-war levels to restore expectations of a global supply surplus.
For investors, the biggest implication will likely be what cheaper energy means for inflation and central banks. Lower oil prices ease pressure on households and businesses while reducing the risk of a broader inflation resurgence just as major central banks enter a busy week of policy meetings.
UPDATE: "A US official is rejecting Iran's assertion that it will receive billions of dollars in frozen funds before a planned 60-day negotiating period begins following Friday's signing of an agreement," reports CNN: The pushback came after Iran's deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said the next phase of talks would depend on Washington first fulfilling several obligations, including releasing Iranian funds frozen abroad. The differing accounts underscore a significant gap between how the United States and Iran are describing what must happen before the next round of negotiations can move forward.
Besides safe-haven Treasurys, gold also rose. "Gold is the interesting outlier here," Leung said. "In a clean risk-on trade, gold should be selling off as the geopolitical premium unwinds, but it is holding bid around $4,300, which tells you the market is not fully trusting the deal yet." Spot gold prices were up almost 2% at $4,302.19 per ounce. That skepticism reflects lingering uncertainty around the agreement, which remains unsigned and subject to implementation risks. [Josh Gilbert, lead Asia Pacific analyst at trading platform eToro] cautioned that "the deal isn't actually signed until June 19th, the details are still thin, and this conflict has shown more than once that headlines can turn on a dime."
Analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia also stressed that the oil outlook hinges on how quickly shipping and production can normalize. Vivek Dhar, head of commodities and sustainability research at CBA, expects Brent to fall to around $80 a barrel by year-end, assuming the Strait remains open and exports recover. However, he warned that damage to refining infrastructure, the presence of sea mines and uncertainty over tanker traffic could slow the return to normal operations. Even so, he said markets are likely to take comfort from the prospect that oil flows need only recover to around 60%-70% of pre-war levels to restore expectations of a global supply surplus.
For investors, the biggest implication will likely be what cheaper energy means for inflation and central banks. Lower oil prices ease pressure on households and businesses while reducing the risk of a broader inflation resurgence just as major central banks enter a busy week of policy meetings.
UPDATE: "A US official is rejecting Iran's assertion that it will receive billions of dollars in frozen funds before a planned 60-day negotiating period begins following Friday's signing of an agreement," reports CNN: The pushback came after Iran's deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said the next phase of talks would depend on Washington first fulfilling several obligations, including releasing Iranian funds frozen abroad. The differing accounts underscore a significant gap between how the United States and Iran are describing what must happen before the next round of negotiations can move forward.
Israel (Score:5, Insightful)
This is a three sided war, Israel needs to also agree to all the terms including the "don't invade lebanon" one. At this point they have shown zero indication of signing the MOU. Without participation of Israel this thing is pretty much dead in the water.
Netanyahu is trying to drag America (Score:2, Insightful)
The problem with that is it requires boots on the ground and it almost certainly will require a draft. Iran is too large and American birth rates are too low to supply enough cannon fodder through a volunteer army. The Republican party has not consolidated its power en
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The problem with that is it requires boots on the ground and it almost certainly will require a draft. Iran is too large and American birth rates are too low to supply enough cannon fodder through a volunteer army.
No need to draft Americans. There are more than enough Iranians willing to finish the job.
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Precisely! At some point, they'll have to resume flooding the streets
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Nice try, Israel
Re: Netanyahu is trying to drag America (Score:3)
Dude seek help, I mean that in the kindest way possible.
Re: Netanyahu is trying to drag America (Score:2)
You seem to assume that a democratic regime will automatically support Israel. There is no evidence for that. In fact, most of the world's democracies do not support Israel.
Democracies and Israel (Score:2)
Actually, once you take out the 50 odd muslim countries, most of the world's population has no views on Israel/Jews, one way or another. More often than not, Leftist parties in those countries tend to be anti-Israel, while Rightist parties in those countries tend to be either agnostic or pro-Israel. In the UN, you have a diplomatic club where everybody votes anti-Israel regardless of their own governments b'cos they want to keep getting invited to international cocktail parties in DC. Or b'cos their gove
Re: Democracies and Israel (Score:5, Insightful)
Actually, once you take out the 50 odd muslim countries, most of the world's population has no views on Israel/Jews, one way or another. More often than not, Leftist parties in those countries tend to be anti-Israel, while Rightist parties in those countries tend to be either agnostic or pro-Israel. In the UN, you have a diplomatic club where everybody votes anti-Israel regardless of their own governments b'cos they want to keep getting invited to international cocktail parties in DC. Or b'cos their governments are bribed by countries like Qatar or Turkey to be hostile to Israel
"Once you remove all the inconvenient data points, and embrace the very specific bias that I have, you start to see things my way".
Reality matters. These fifty Muslim countries matter, I don't see why their opinion should be ignored. By the way, having no view on something is not supporting it. The regime in Iran before the Islamic revolution was supported by the CIA, and the Islamic revolution was initially a multipartite revolution that the Islamic fundamentalists appropriated. The population was fed up with the CIA-backed monarchy. Also I'm not sure why you mention "Jews", we were taking about Israel. If you equate Jewishness with Israel then you are just repeating propaganda. There's plenty of Jews all over the world that are critical of Israel - including in Israel.
I'll leave here a reference to this UN vote [un.org] as an example that what you say is not supported by reality.
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Yeah, prove to me that a majority of people in any of the non-muslim countries that routinely vote against Israel actually care one way or the other about this issue! As for the charge of conflating "Jewishness" and "Israel", it comes out in all the statements about Israel out there. They're hated for being a Jewish state, both by Leftists and mohammedans. There are some 50 muslim countries and some 100 Christian countries, but all Israel-haters have an issue w/ the world's one Jewish nation
The reason
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The day there is a restoration of democracy in Iran, those 2 will have normal relations again.
It will also require a restoration of secular democracy in Israel.
Israel will have a forever war w/ the "Palestinians" - a fraudulent entity invented by the Soviets and Nasserite Egyptians in 1964.
So what would you suggest for Palestinian people? Where should they go, and what should be done with the land that they have vacated?
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For starters, there is no real entity called the "Palestinian" people.
Way to go in avoiding the question I put to you. There are people living in Gaza and the West Bank, who the majority of the world refer to as "Palestinians".
I'll ask again, after the bombing of Gaza and Jewish settler attacks on those on the West Bank, what do you expect these people to do?
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Funny how every war b/w Israel and its enemies - 1948, 1956, 1967, 1973, 1982, 2023 (Hamas/Hizbullah) and 2024 (Iran one day where they obliterated the islamic republican air power) - Israel trounced them, w/o needing any US troops. Arms, yeah, but every country buys them from a willing seller. Also, Israel remembers its experience w/ Biden and is now working to become fully self-sufficient militarily as far as weapons systems go
The claim that Netanyahu is a stooge of Trump in the same way that Lukashen
Re:Israel (Score:5, Insightful)
I believe the common perception is that Trump is a stooge of Netanyahu.
I don't recall ever hearing it the other way around. Trump and many American politicians dance to Israel/AIPACs tune, due to money and religious beliefs about Israels supposed role in the end of times.
Re: Israel (Score:3)
who's the stooge? (Score:4, Interesting)
Then they need to look up what "stooge" means. Had Trump been the stooge of Netanyahu, then by now, the State Department would already have greenlighted the annexation of Judea and Samaria, and given a carte blanche for Israel to do anything it wanted to in Iran
The fact that Israel hasn't been able to do a lot of things that it wanted shows that it's Trump calling the shots, not Bibi
What about neither? (Score:4, Insightful)
There are limits to what netanyahu can get away with. But that is not the same as Trump calling shots. Netanyahu has continuously ignored Trump and attacked Lebanon and Iran. They have kept the fighting going for some time when it could have stopped.
If anyone is calling the shots here it's Iran. They control 20% of the global economy because they control the straight. America does not have the troops for a serious war with Iran and dropping bombs was never going to get us regime change. We would need to do a draft and put boots on the ground and that isn't politically feasible for trump. At least not yet.
I suspect Trump was hoping for a large scale terrorist attack and Iran didn't take the bait. Trump had significantly cut resources to American to American anti-terrorism right before starting a war with the nation known to use proxies and put a 22-year-old kid in charge of the largest American anti-terrorism department. So I think it's safe to say he was up to something. A second 911 could have gotten him a blank check to do whatever he wanted in Iran. But again they didn't take the bait
Re:who's the stooge? (Score:4, Insightful)
Bibi is doing what he deems essential for HIS own survival. The region is very much in dramatic disarray but that won't last forever and both sides have long histories & longer memories.
What's been done will come back to bite Israel and they are grossly outnumbered and have lost the support of of the West.
Were it not for the USA more than a few Western countries would have intervened militarily to end Netanyahu's genocide.
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What's been done will come back to bite Israel and they are grossly outnumbered and have lost the support of of the West.
Right, b'cos the October 7th massacre now close to 3 years ago was a walk in the park for Israel, right?
How to signal that you're an antisemite w/o saying that you are an antisemite
Re:who's the stooge? (Score:4)
"b'cos the October 7th massacre now close to 3 years ago was a walk in the park for Israel, right?"
that was a terrorist attack.
what Israel has done as reprisal is a genocide.
if i were deeply concerned about the safety & wellbeing of fellow countrymen being held hostage in tunnels i wouldn't risk collapsing said tunnels by leveling every building.
"you are an antisemite"
if my opinions & statements wrt Israel actions are such then so are those of many Jews & Jewish media who've been far more sharply critical from the outset than even the US politicians who claim to support Palestinians.
Re: who's the stooge? (Score:2)
Anytime anytime brings up how October 7 supposedly justifies whatever Israel wants, we know we've found a gigantic piece of shit.
Before October 7, Israel had killed over ten times more Palestinians than the reverse. They have also expanded into Palestine's territory time and again while Palestine has never expanded into theirs.
You think all of that is great and justified specifically because you are racist.
Re: who's the stooge? (Score:4)
Otherwise I would like to know what "race" unixisc is "racist" against? This is after all your claim you should be able to explain it.
The most stupid people always demand that other people explain things, because they can't figure them out, because they're fucking idiots. He's racist in favor of whiteness. Which isn't actually a race, but then, race isn't actually real so reality is not the basis of racism and that is therefore irrelevant. Jews have been deemed white until the next time a bunch of white people want to murder them, but Palestinians have been deemed brown. And indeed this makes some sense, because Zionist jews are way less likely to be significantly semitic than Palestinians.
Palestinians and Nazi's share quite a history of common cause in the mutual goal of eradicating Jews from the earth.
You don't need an apostrophe there, and again, you're willfully ignoring the fact that Israelis were killing ten times as many Palestinians before October 7, and are WAY WAY WAY the fuck out in front now. Who's eradicating who, and why are you ignoring it? Answer, racism again. Fuck off with your racism.
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Precisely! Although the puppetry is bidirectional: while the islamic regime bankrolls parties like Hizbullah and Ansar allah, those groups provide them the personnel to crack down on normal Iranians, due to a shortage of Iranian volunteers willing to slaughter their own people
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No, the US wasn't forced to do squat. We didn't have to do anything: we could have just told Israel to do whatever they think they needed to do, and left it at that. Israel destroyed Iran's entire Air Force in 2024, before Trump returned to office and when the Biden administration was busy w/ the elections, and when they were actually withholding/delaying weapons deliveries to Israel
It's amusing how every Leftist thinks that while US imperialism viz Venezuela, Cuba,... is normally bad, somehow they do a
Re: Israel (Score:3)
Arms, yeah, but every country buys them from a willing seller.
This is a lie by omission. Israel also gets financial support from US taxpayer money, and also gets military support paid for with US taxpayer money. It's not just Israel buying weapons from the US.
"aid" to Israel (Score:2)
You are making one activity look like 3. Yeah, Israel buys arms from the US, but with the financial "aid" money it gets, which then looks like "military aid". It's not allowed to use that money for anything else. Not only can't they buy weaponry from India, Vietnam,... w/ that money, they can't even use that for civilian purposes, the way it is written
They saw how it was under Biden, and even on the Right, they can see the split b/w pro-Israel and anti-Israel factions of the MAGA movement. As a result
Re: "aid" to Israel (Score:2)
You are using a lot of words to confirm that you were lying by omission. How about the US stops all aid to Israel and let's see what happens? The US doesn't seem interested in finding out, and that was already true under Biden. Which all contradicts your claim that Israel can take care of itself. It can't without the support of the US.
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The Israelis are preparing for that. They see the political landscape in the US on both sides, recognize that there are enough AOC Dems and Tucker Republicans to deny them future support, and to that end, they're doing what they can to make what they need, or buy it from other countries
You're the liar - and a Judeophobe to boot!
Re: "aid" to Israel (Score:2)
Thank you for displaying your dishonesty, lack of integrity and/or stupidity. This discussion is now over.
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israel builds its own jets now? (Score:2)
They have been doing that for many years.
The Argies flew Israeli built jets in the Falklands war.
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IAI hasn't build a fighter since the Dagger/Nesher that Israel sold to Argentina after the IAF was done with them. They tried to build an F-16 competitor, the Lavi, but stopped when the US refused to allow any funding to be used towards its development.
Israel likely has the technical capability to build a modern fighter. Whether it has the money to do so on its own is an entirely other matter.
Re: Israel (Score:2)
The US will sell Israel more jets, especially if they continue a war with Lebanon and Iran.
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Iran is at war with Israel and the US. There's no version of reality where they open the strait and don't negotiate peace with israel
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Only if by "Iran", you mean a regime where the right hand no longer knows what the left hand is doing. There is the IRGC, the Basij, the clerics and the whole enchilada of groups within the regime
I use the term "Iran" to only refer to the geography, or to the people. Some may be monarchists, some may be republicans, but the bulk of them loathe the regime and use substitute flags instead of the standard crescent & sword, and the tabari borderlines b/w the stripes
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The country you're awkwardly putting in quotation marks has the leader of the free world tweeting about his surrender terms for a war he started, so if that's the bar for dysfunctional, uh,
Trump's retweeting Ghalibaf (Score:3)
The country you're awkwardly putting in quotation marks has the leader of the free world tweeting about his surrender terms for a war he started, so if that's the bar for dysfunctional, uh,
I'm not one of those people who thinks that Trump plays 3D or 4D or 5D chess. That said, his "retweet" of Ghalibaf was a brilliant Machiavellian move. It got the faction of Iranians who still support the regime split: the IRGC doesn't want any part of it, while it's unclear what fraction of the regime supporters endorse this. The majority population at large doesn't want the fighting to end: they want the islamic regime overthrown. That's why I only use the word "Iran" when I'm referring to that majorit
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Hey AC how big is the check the big guy is writing to iran? Does it start with a B? Is it more of less than 10? Oh it's more than 20? Does that sound like winning to you? Because I have a bridge in brooklyn to sell you.
Re: Israel (Score:4, Informative)
Surprise! It's $24 Billion with a B! That's how much ransom Trump is willing to pay to get himself out of vietnam. If only Israel will stop attacking Lebanon. Which they won't. So this continues on ad infinitum. Welco mm e to the forever war literally everyone told him not to get into, and countless generals took early retirement in protest for. But keep pushing a partisan agenda.
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Notice when presented with facts they have to immediately turn to conspiracy, it's pathetic.
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Denying the money Iran will be getting in return.
So, what country do you live in?
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There's no "free money". All the "aid" that Israel gets is in the form of grants that have to be spent only buying from US arms suppliers. It's nothing like all the free money various countries used to get from USAID before it got wound up
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Let's see... (Score:2)
Has an agreement actually been reached? Both sides agree on the terms?
How much was given away to get it?
How will Trump and his stooges spin it?
How long will it last?
I hope you'll forgive me for being skeptical, give what has happened up 'til now.
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Glorious success! (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Glorious success! (Score:5, Insightful)
Iran won. Before the war, few believed that they could survive a direct attack by the US, but now it's very clear that they control the Strait, and can bring the global economy down whenever they like. The US can't stop them, nobody can.
The only winning move is to get off oil as fast as possible, which is the opposite of what the US is doing.
Meanwhile Israel continues to do whatever it likes, and the US has no control there either. All they can do is send more free stuff to the Israelis. Doubtless the ceasefire will last only hours before Israel breaks it.
It's actually kind of astounding how badly this has turned out, for everyone except Iran and Russia.
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It's almost like there was a reason previous President's didn't engage Iran militarily in such a fashion. The military and State department have been well aware the regime in Iran cannot be changed without an actual ground invasion.
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You have the opinions of a child.
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I agree with you, but there is one small caveat:
Any deal where the actual logistics of anything within Iranian artillery range is ignored, is a victory for Iran. A pretty shit victory, but it also means they get to push the same global buttons the next round so long the world is a petroeconomy. The same is true if any tribute is levied. Pipes won't really do anything if you could you know... just artillery the pipe or the end points. Or all the facilities needed for oil.
Its also very telling that Israel s
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Any deal where the actual logistics of anything within Iranian artillery range is ignored, is a victory for Iran. A pretty shit victory, but it also means they get to push the same global buttons the next round so long the world is a petroeconomy. The same is true if any tribute is levied. Pipes won't really do anything if you could you know... just artillery the pipe or the end points. Or all the facilities needed for oil.
Pay me money to pass vs pay me money not to attack your country and kill your people and blow your shit up are quite different things. I don't view blockades and direct attacks on countries and infrastructure as the same thing.
Remember the Iranian regime lives in a glass house too. Any state can simply lob shells, drones, rockets and missiles at any other to destroy their infrastructure with little regard for range. Damage to pipelines is akin to damage to railroad tracks or roads.. relatively easily rep
If I were a betting man... (Score:5, Insightful)
I'd bet that nothing gets signed Friday. What the US administration is claiming is in the deal looks far different than what Iran states is in the deal.
Also, does anyone else remember Trump making up some BS about Iran promising some really nice gift to him? I think the odds are high Trump screws this up, even if the negotiators land on agreeable common terms between now and Friday.
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At least he ended another war on his birthday. People will be lining up to give him peace prizes.
Re:If I were a betting man... (Score:5, Funny)
I was halfway expecting him to be "honored" with an UFC peac prize between cage matches tonight.
Trump vs Iran. (Score:3, Insightful)
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He went into it with no understanding at all of what was going to happen because
Because he's Trump. He doesn't have the skillset to understand the world. Skills like dealing with facts. He thinks reality is set by consensus.
Re:Trump vs Iran. (Score:4, Insightful)
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He thinks reality is set by consensus.
No, he thinks (I use the word loosely) that reality is what he says it is, but only when he says it. Reality changes when he changes his mind.
Re:Trump vs Iran. (Score:5, Insightful)
more to the point, he doesn't have a skillset for much of anything. Even his financial people for his "companies" admit he cannot read a spreadsheet. All those numbers and their magnitudes confuse him. And this is why he continually fucks up the U.S. economy. You can see his confusion where he'll equate selling Bibles for what are peanuts with mega-deals to people offering billions. You can also see it in his "companies" where he micro-managed pennies yet still managed to go bankrupt 6-7 times because of major financial fuck ups. He literally cannot tell the difference between magnitudes other than someone explained to him that one number was greater than another.
He also has the attention span of a gnat. He cannot calculate 2nd and 3rd order effects. Many people cannot but, if they are in a position of power, are smart enough to surround themselves with people who can do that sort of planning. He doesn't surround himself with such people because he cannot get past "me wants", like 5 yr. old. This makes him susceptible to the Project 2025 people who can easily convince him that something they want is something he wants. He doesn't know how to get it, so they explain how he can get it by directing his administration on the steps. And most of his "schemes" are hatched that way, with the obvious fuck ups resulting. He's like Putin gormlessly believing the spooks that Ukraine would be a push over. And if Biden had any balls, Ukraine would have already taken Moscow by now.
Re:Trump vs Iran. (Score:5, Insightful)
> The Iranian dictatorship has been attacking America for 40 years.
Where in America was the last Iranian attack?
> That said, what Trump did was crazy, and Iran might be more likely to get a nuclear weapon now than they were a year ago.
Iran now knows that the only thing which will protect you from an American attack is nukes. It seems they're offering not to build any, but any sane country would be building as many as they could at this point.
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So they haven't attacked America, then?
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No, I asked a very simple question and you expected me to read a long Wikipedia page because you clearly don't have an answer. And I have a very high IQ, thanks... I just don't talk about it because smart people generally don't.
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That happened during Trump 1.0 when he ripped up the agreement Obama negotiated with Iran. Something that took the better part of a decade to accomplish - 5 years of informal back and forth negotiations followed by an intense 18 month diplomatic formal neg
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Like Bill Kristol said last night They warned me that if I voted for Kamala Harris we’d get a new deal with the Iranian regime worse than the JCPOA. I voted for Kamala, and they were right.
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Where in America was the last Iranian attack?
Failure to attack American soil was a result to incompetence by Iran, not by lack of desire or attempts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
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My (realistic) fear is that Donald is too incompetent to achieve that.
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I get you, but what happens in Iran will be independent of what Trump wishes. Already, the regime is turning on itself, and after a chain reaction has started, it'll be impossible to salvage it. Have you noticed that in all these discussions, nobody is talking about Iran's president Pezeshkian?
I do think that the Iranian people will be free. I just hope it'll be sooner rather than later, so that they can start rebuilding their country and get out of that islamic OCD about Israel that they are under
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Already, the regime is turning on itself, and after a chain reaction has started, it'll be impossible to salvage it.
It's really hard to know what is going on inside Iran right now. Last year, good data was hard to come by (like reasonable polling data). This year it's even harder.
Have you noticed that in all these discussions, nobody is talking about Iran's president Pezeshkian?
AFAICT the president of Iran has always been more of a figurehead. Do you think that has changed?
I do think that the Iranian people will be free. I just hope it'll be sooner rather than later
Yes.
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It's really hard to know what is going on inside Iran right now. Last year, good data was hard to come by (like reasonable polling data). This year it's even harder.
I use GAMAAN, which is an Iranian polling organization w/ a very elaborate polling technique and a large sampling size, given the difficulty of this exercise. They do give a good idea of what opinion is like in Iran. Aside from that, I check out the Iran International news site, and also check out 2-3 Iranian podcasters.
In fact, that's my approach w/ any country these days. If I want to know what's going on in Iran, I use Iran International. If I want to know what's going on in Israel, I use JNS. For
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no one can tell who the equivalent of Trump is for the islamic republic, but no one is saying that it's President Pezeshkian
Surely it's Ahmad Vahidi, head of the IRGC.
I like your concept that the negotiations are aimed at driving wedges between the factions in Iran. Certainly, agreeing to a deal this week requires the IRGC to show their hand at least.
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The president of Iran wasn't quite just a figurehead. Iran has a very unusual political system - an actual kind of democratic republic with a parliament, political parties and separation of powers embedded in a totalitarian theocracy. The president is the head of the government (basically a prime minister) and has the mandate to make decisions regarding non-religious and non-military things. At least that was the case until this war. The old theocracy elites were killed by the USA and the new ones are young
Iran's next rung of theocrat leaders (Score:2)
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"a chain reaction has started" if you are implying that la Presidenta started chain reaction, I do not agree. The fuse was lit in Iran long ago, just look at their recent history of having to kill their own people to remain in power. The regime was headed for the scrapheap since at least 2010. What replaces it is open question. I don't think the Iranian people can be ignored. Yet the IRGC has all the guns and is not squeamish of how many of their countrymen they must kill to keep their graft machine running
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You are right about the regime vs the Iranian people. I'm talking about different factions of the regime. When Ali Khamenei was alive, they were all reined in, and kept from going at each other's throats. But the evisceration of the top leadership of both the clerics as well as the IRGC just destroyed any inhibiting forces, and they have been somewhat openly at each others throats
Even more so now, after Trump retweeted Ghalibaf
Happy birthday? (Score:2)
The Iranians are more astute than Trump thinks, and they've understood exactly what he's up to.
That's why I don't think this agreement will amount to much.
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Trump announced the end of the war with Iran on his birthday. That's obviously no coincidence. The Iranians are more astute than Trump thinks, and they've understood exactly what he's up to. That's why I don't think this agreement will amount to much.
And at the first misstep, for instance, if Israel launches an attack on Lebanon, Iran will have exactly the pretext it needs to keep the conflict going, or at least delay the deal.
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The Iranians are more astute than Trump thinks, and they've understood exactly what he's up to.
If the Iranians understand what Trump is up to, they are more astute than I am.
I have no fuckin' clue what Trump is up to until he does it.
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What deal (Score:5, Informative)
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Cushing, OK hub has 2-3 wks of crude remaining (Score:3)
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If there's any lesson to learn in all of this, it's that making confident predictions on things like large percentage changes in oil prices isn't just foolhardy... it's silly. It's exactly the kind of mistaken prognostication that made Russia think they had an unbreakable stranglehold on Europe through natural gas provisioning. That power evaporated in their hands when the world reorganized around them. I've been hearing about $150-$200 oil from pundits since the start of this conflict. It may arrive, it ma
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So you're asserting that the US can't get its oil domestically?
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So you're asserting that the US can't get its oil domestically?
The US mostly exports its oil so that we can replace it with a higher grade of imported oil which is more useful for our purposes. We want mostly fuel, not plastics. Our refineries are designed for the imported oil. We would have to do a bunch of work on them to make them work with our oil.
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Are you kidding?
The Bakken Shale produces nearly the lightest sweetest crude there is.
You have it backward - US refineries are built to process shitty Venezuelan and Canadian crude, while ours needs nearly no processing at all.
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So you're asserting that the US can't get its oil domestically?
Even if US oil companies could extract and refine sufficient domestic oil for everything (something open to debate due to the mismatch in the type of oil and refining capabilities) why would they? If Exxon or Chevron can sell a barrel of oil for $150 to someone in Europe or sell it in the US for $80, which one do you think they'll choose? Hint: They aren't going to cut their profits by 50% in an act of selfless patriotism.
Making your energy production and distribution infrastructure privately run has pros
Trump said there is an agreement (Score:2)
Trump said that the agreement is good, and America wins.
Trump always tells the truth. Trump never lies.
Trump said that this is a better deal than Obama had.
Trump always tells the truth. Trump never lies.
Trump said that Israel will allow strikes from Iranian rockets, drones, and missiles.
Trump always tells the truth. Trump never lies.
Fool me 38 times (Score:5, Insightful)
The press is flat wrong. There is no peace agreement. At best there is a MOU about which both sides are asserting diametrically opposing views. Trump is constantly just making shit up. It is better not to entertain anything until it happens.
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It's probably more correct to say a temporary ceasefire is nearly agreed on. Up until now, there hasn't even been a single day of that.
It'll be interesting to see if Trump can tame that Israel beast. He'll have to cut of the weapons supply me thinks. Something that should have happened permanently many decades ago.
Gold been falling through the war (Score:2)
Analysis on gold prices is horseshit. Was this written by an AI? Gold prices have been falling throughout the war, so of course they're going to bump up if it looks like the war might end.
Gold is only a safe haven on a century long timeline. Other factors (like it's ability to facilitate cross border oil transactions during a crisis) overwhelm that dynamic on shorter timelines.
Trump (Score:2)
We still get the economic shitshow (Score:3)
Whether it’s bad or catastrophic is up in the air depending on the extent to which the global economy is genuinely less oil-intensive than in the past, the efficacy of the strategic reserves (all due to be gone bar China by end of July, but now perhaps never quite fully depleting), how much markets have actually reallocated, and the extent to which tech has really been able to drive substitution.
My best guess is that it’s still going to be dire, but not quite global depression territory. For example, container throughputs are way down
https://www.rwi-essen.de/en/pr... [rwi-essen.de], freight rates have gone up massively eg doubled for Shanghai-US, etc
We can adapt to maritime chokepoints, but it doesn’t eliminate the damage, it just redistributes it
https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.134... [arxiv.org]
"You broke it, you bought it." (Score:2)
I'd like to think that old maxim carries some weight... but when it comes to the US, it doesn't - at least, not now. They're going to walk away. The good news is that no matter how they end up doing it, there will indeed be a price to pay. Not immediately... but pretty quickly. It has already started to manifest. And they won't be prepared to deal with it. When their leader exits, they're left with a shell of an organization, populated by incompetent sycophants with no idea how to run the show. When the wor
GOLD (Score:2)
gold is not selling off because A: it's gold. People don't go there unless they're scared of all risks being too much, and once they're in gold they are just going to hold on to it. The real problem is that whatever agreement Trump and Iran think they have is, for the moment, just a temporary thing that could devolve into missile volleys again. And probably will.
"the next phase of talks would depend on Washington first fulfilling several obligations"
The Trump administration has a really good track record th